oped
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Post by oped on Aug 9, 2020 21:12:42 GMT -5
So you think deaths will pick up after this coming month...
Deaths will never be as concentratedly (new word) high as they were in spring. No state will see deaths like NY ... being first in a pandemic sucks. But combined... I don't know. I really don't.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Aug 10, 2020 4:15:37 GMT -5
yeah, well, we can forget about being Italy, Spain or South Korea on this. in fact, if you go down the list, we really are not doing any better than any countries to date. there is only ONE country with over 6M people that is doing worse than us (Chile) and none with over 20M. we are absolutely in the basement in terms of large population countries. in order for India to catch us, they will need to have 20 million cases (the same as the number worldwide, currently) and 700k dead. i am not sure they will ever catch us, candidly, because although our rate is fairly flat, and theirs is growing, it is going to take MONTHS for them to get to 700k, and by then, our number of deaths will be 1.5-2x what they are now, which means that we will still be the leading death machine, globally, among nations of over 20M.
you have to see the flattening in the case and death totals though. how do you explain that, and when do you expect it to stop?
Based on the experience in the northeast, cases plateaued for a while, while deaths took forever to decline. It was torture to live through. I think Florida, Texas, and Arizona have hit that stage. California, who knows, since it is too big and varied. We are at about 165k deaths, a month from now(Labor Day), I expect us to be at 180k. Unfortunately, cases are going up in the center of the country, so as deaths taper off in the hotspots by the end of the month, the will start to rise elsewhere. I think we are in a national nightmare. Schools opening, colleges restarting in places where the virus is widely circulating is going to cause problems. States need trump to give them cover to make tough, unpopular decisions, but he won’t. I see us having 25-30k cases s day for months. Now, some friends call me doctor doom and gloom, so factor that into my analysis We had that....even though our infection rate was going down death toll was still huge every day........ Some people were in hospital for months before they died and it was taking a while to work through to conclusion. Our Chief Medical Officer is saying that we are now at the limit to what we can open up and still keep the R under 1 ....so nightclubs, theatres etc won't be opening as planned. Plus with the kids going back in September...... we may have to close other venues to balance it out. Still getting outbreaks but testing and tracing seems to be working and the oldies are still in bubbles. India are using a lot of antigen tests instead of PCR tests... and their results are less reliable. Its surging in the rural villages though.... and many people are dying without reaching a Covid facility.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2020 19:07:41 GMT -5
I'd assume the actual number of rural cases is much higher - since none of us appear to be able to get tested, despite being sick...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 10, 2020 22:41:31 GMT -5
yeah, well, we can forget about being Italy, Spain or South Korea on this. in fact, if you go down the list, we really are not doing any better than any countries to date. there is only ONE country with over 6M people that is doing worse than us (Chile) and none with over 20M. we are absolutely in the basement in terms of large population countries. in order for India to catch us, they will need to have 20 million cases (the same as the number worldwide, currently) and 700k dead. i am not sure they will ever catch us, candidly, because although our rate is fairly flat, and theirs is growing, it is going to take MONTHS for them to get to 700k, and by then, our number of deaths will be 1.5-2x what they are now, which means that we will still be the leading death machine, globally, among nations of over 20M.
you have to see the flattening in the case and death totals though. how do you explain that, and when do you expect it to stop?
Based on the experience in the northeast, cases plateaued for a while, while deaths took forever to decline. It was torture to live through. I think Florida, Texas, and Arizona have hit that stage. California, who knows, since it is too big and varied. We are at about 165k deaths, a month from now(Labor Day), I expect us to be at 180k. Unfortunately, cases are going up in the center of the country, so as deaths taper off in the hotspots by the end of the month, the will start to rise elsewhere. I think we are in a national nightmare. Schools opening, colleges restarting in places where the virus is widely circulating is going to cause problems. States need trump to give them cover to make tough, unpopular decisions, but he won’t. I see us having 25-30k cases s day for months. Now, some friends call me doctor doom and gloom, so factor that into my analysis I think you are being optimistic. how does it feel to hear that?
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Post by pulmonarymd on Aug 11, 2020 5:49:25 GMT -5
Based on the experience in the northeast, cases plateaued for a while, while deaths took forever to decline. It was torture to live through. I think Florida, Texas, and Arizona have hit that stage. California, who knows, since it is too big and varied. We are at about 165k deaths, a month from now(Labor Day), I expect us to be at 180k. Unfortunately, cases are going up in the center of the country, so as deaths taper off in the hotspots by the end of the month, the will start to rise elsewhere. I think we are in a national nightmare. Schools opening, colleges restarting in places where the virus is widely circulating is going to cause problems. States need trump to give them cover to make tough, unpopular decisions, but he won’t. I see us having 25-30k cases s day for months. Now, some friends call me doctor doom and gloom, so factor that into my analysis I think you are being optimistic. how does it feel to hear that? Not surprising, because every scenario laid out about this has been too optimistic
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Aug 11, 2020 16:48:47 GMT -5
I just don't get the way some things are reported. We had the 2nd highest number of deaths reported today.
But 8 out of the 11 deaths died more than 2 weeks ago. 3 of them back in June! How can you evaluated trends with data that old?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Aug 11, 2020 18:00:45 GMT -5
I just don't get the way some things are reported. We had the 2nd highest number of deaths reported today.
But 8 out of the 11 deaths died more than 2 weeks ago. 3 of them back in June! How can you evaluated trends with data that old?
That’s why 7 day averages are best. It helps smooth things out. With tests tKing so long, you will more of this. Some cases need the medical examiner to sign off. Curve smoothing algorithms Ali help
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Post by haapai on Aug 12, 2020 13:35:28 GMT -5
I visited the Worldometers site for the first time in months today. It was my go-to site for about the first six weeks of the pandemic but I pretty much abandoned it once I subscribed to the Times. It was absolutely shocking to see the changes in the order of states. I also played around with sorting the list by cases per million and deaths per million. I can't explain exactly why seeing that information displayed in that particular format had such an effect on me. It wasn't as if I hadn't been following the news.
If you are tempted to go to the site and see it for yourself, it is best to click to yesterday.
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Post by lynnerself on Aug 12, 2020 14:00:30 GMT -5
I visited the Worldometers site for the first time in months today. It was my go-to site for about the first six weeks of the pandemic but I pretty much abandoned it once I subscribed to the Times. It was absolutely shocking to see the changes in the order of states. I also played around with sorting the list by cases per million and deaths per million. I can't explain exactly why seeing that information displayed in that particular format had such an effect on me. It wasn't as if I hadn't been following the news.
If you are tempted to go to the site and see it for yourself, it is best to click to yesterday.
I look at that site daily. I like the different ways that the data can be sorted. And the ability to see the curves for each country and state. Especially since they added the feature to see the 7 day averages. However, their numbers for my state never quite match what my states health authority says.
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Post by haapai on Aug 12, 2020 14:59:44 GMT -5
Yes, the discrepancies in numbers bothered me. Also, the lack of a 7-day rolling average made it pretty much useless to me. Thanks for pointing out that new development. I'm baffled that they have retained the 3-day average as an option. I always found it unspeakably useless.
My takeaways were that leadership matters and that protecting congregant living facilities saves lives. I'd already read that, but the presentation on the site showed me that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2020 20:22:26 GMT -5
I visited the Worldometers site for the first time in months today. It was my go-to site for about the first six weeks of the pandemic but I pretty much abandoned it once I subscribed to the Times. It was absolutely shocking to see the changes in the order of states. I also played around with sorting the list by cases per million and deaths per million. I can't explain exactly why seeing that information displayed in that particular format had such an effect on me. It wasn't as if I hadn't been following the news.
If you are tempted to go to the site and see it for yourself, it is best to click to yesterday.
I look at that site daily. I like the different ways that the data can be sorted. And the ability to see the curves for each country and state. Especially since they added the feature to see the 7 day averages. However, their numbers for my state never quite match what my states health authority says.
presuming you want to know why......
worldometers uses WHO data. for that data, the day ends at 0:00 GMT (midnight). for your locality it ends at 0:00 local time. so the worldometer data is taken 5-8 hours earlier if you are in the contiguous US.
(or is it 6-9? I can never remember)
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Post by Tiny on Aug 12, 2020 20:34:13 GMT -5
I visited the Worldometers site for the first time in months today. It was my go-to site for about the first six weeks of the pandemic but I pretty much abandoned it once I subscribed to the Times. It was absolutely shocking to see the changes in the order of states. I also played around with sorting the list by cases per million and deaths per million. I can't explain exactly why seeing that information displayed in that particular format had such an effect on me. It wasn't as if I hadn't been following the news.
If you are tempted to go to the site and see it for yourself, it is best to click to yesterday.
Florida and Texas have been going up the chart by gang busters for the last 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas tops California before the end of the month.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 12, 2020 21:04:31 GMT -5
I visited the Worldometers site for the first time in months today. It was my go-to site for about the first six weeks of the pandemic but I pretty much abandoned it once I subscribed to the Times. It was absolutely shocking to see the changes in the order of states. I also played around with sorting the list by cases per million and deaths per million. I can't explain exactly why seeing that information displayed in that particular format had such an effect on me. It wasn't as if I hadn't been following the news.
If you are tempted to go to the site and see it for yourself, it is best to click to yesterday.
Florida and Texas have been going up the chart by gang busters for the last 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas tops California before the end of the month. Biker gangs?
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Post by teen persuasion on Aug 13, 2020 8:28:09 GMT -5
I look at that site daily. I like the different ways that the data can be sorted. And the ability to see the curves for each country and state. Especially since they added the feature to see the 7 day averages. However, their numbers for my state never quite match what my states health authority says.
presuming you want to know why......
worldometers uses WHO data. for that data, the day ends at 0:00 GMT (midnight). for your locality it ends at 0:00 local time. so the worldometer data is taken 5-8 hours earlier if you are in the contiguous US.
(or is it 6-9? I can never remember)
Times reported don't explain the discrepancy. Local health departments and the state here are reporting numbers at most once per day. Every day when Cuomo reports the newest daily death number, it is lower than worldometers' number. Cuomo says 12, worldometers says 17. Cuomo says 5, worldometers says 14. Cuomo says 2, worldometers says 7. Every day.
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Post by lynnerself on Aug 13, 2020 9:35:23 GMT -5
Yes my discrepancy is not due to time zones either. We have a once a day report also. The weird thing is that the total number is right, but the daily count is also low. They seem to be getting the numbers from 2 different sources.
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Post by Opti on Aug 13, 2020 10:14:35 GMT -5
Based on the experience in the northeast, cases plateaued for a while, while deaths took forever to decline. It was torture to live through. I think Florida, Texas, and Arizona have hit that stage. California, who knows, since it is too big and varied. We are at about 165k deaths, a month from now(Labor Day), I expect us to be at 180k. Unfortunately, cases are going up in the center of the country, so as deaths taper off in the hotspots by the end of the month, the will start to rise elsewhere. I think we are in a national nightmare. Schools opening, colleges restarting in places where the virus is widely circulating is going to cause problems. States need trump to give them cover to make tough, unpopular decisions, but he won’t. I see us having 25-30k cases s day for months. Now, some friends call me doctor doom and gloom, so factor that into my analysis I think you are being optimistic. how does it feel to hear that? Haven't we been double that or higher for daily case count? I'd love to see it drop down to that or lower, but its still summer AND school is starting. Not factors for a decrease.
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Post by Opti on Aug 13, 2020 10:19:21 GMT -5
presuming you want to know why......
worldometers uses WHO data. for that data, the day ends at 0:00 GMT (midnight). for your locality it ends at 0:00 local time. so the worldometer data is taken 5-8 hours earlier if you are in the contiguous US.
(or is it 6-9? I can never remember)
Times reported don't explain the discrepancy. Local health departments and the state here are reporting numbers at most once per day. Every day when Cuomo reports the newest daily death number, it is lower than worldometers' number. Cuomo says 12, worldometers says 17. Cuomo says 5, worldometers says 14. Cuomo says 2, worldometers says 7. Every day. If you read Worldometer's philosophy they include 100% of probable deaths in with the confirmed Covid death count. And somewhere I think they have some special sauce or really bad data entry people that keeps the total higher. NJ generally has 50 to 70 deaths added to its total in excess of Covid plus expected deaths. The case counts seem off by a bigger factor but for now I've given up trying to figure it out,
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Post by Opti on Aug 13, 2020 10:31:54 GMT -5
Yes, the discrepancies in numbers bothered me. Also, the lack of a 7-day rolling average made it pretty much useless to me. Thanks for pointing out that new development. I'm baffled that they have retained the 3-day average as an option. I always found it unspeakably useless.
My takeaways were that leadership matters and that protecting congregant living facilities saves lives. I'd already read that, but the presentation on the site showed me that.
I've been doing that for awhile as I hated where NJ and NY fell on the leader board. When I first started watching the cases per Million in population only NY was above 20K and no other state was really near NJ. I am surprised how Louisiana keeps racking up cases and I see MS moved up and Alabama and Georgia will leap over NJ soon. Its only August 2020 not even August 2021 so who knows where this all will end up. It would have been hard for the US to do what New Zealand did, but I am jealous of where they are now compared to us.
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 13, 2020 12:20:04 GMT -5
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Aug 13, 2020 12:21:14 GMT -5
New Zealand are in the middle of the Ocean......... with less than 5m people. They have just gone in to lock down because a family of four caught the virus...................... (now at 36 cases)
Interestingly the Southern Countries are in Winter........... so we look at them, usually for flu........ but in this case Covid19 NZ reckon their recent cases may have come from the environment, ie a cold storage facility......but how long it has been there isn't clear. They have had a hundred days with no cases. Might provide a clue as to how this virus survives.
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Post by Opti on Aug 13, 2020 12:28:20 GMT -5
That sucks. Glad I don't live there. Some people do forget around here, but if reminded get and wear their masks. I was surprised the other day when a family member breezed into the facility sans masks to bring in items for a patient. Most of them hang between the entry doors and poke their heads in. She did go back to get a mask when I asked her to do so. In the same week I went to a higher end grocery store and was behind a woman with no mask. An employee spotted it and made an overhead call to customer service. Turns out she was ahead of me in an aisle and I just pointed to my face mask when she darted out. Some women are wearing masks that are flash toned or light colored patterns, so I personally can't always tell if they are wearing masks or not unless I am near them.
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Post by anciana on Aug 13, 2020 14:49:21 GMT -5
This is geometric growth at its best. People want to ignore math, but it doesn’t lie. Fauci said it could result in 100k cases a day if we do not do what is necessary. But we still argue nonsenses; masks are a communistic plot. Other countries seem to be doing better. July is going to be ugly. Now Texas will not release hospital data, and the lieutenant governor thinks he is smarter than Fauci. And here we are Approximately 1% of the US population has been infected and of those, about 4% had died Where did I read that it took only 28 days to reach the 3rd million cases? Is it too much to predict that by the end of the month there'll be another 1 million? Or more? Could we have 1.5% population infected beginning of August It makes me sad to see that this came to be. Earlier this month there was 1.5% of the US population infected with the virus. More than 3% of those have died. By early November, if things continue the same way, there could be 10 million infected, or 3% of population, and quarter million dead. Or by the end of the year the latest. This is a big country so talking in millions might not mean that by then everyone will have known someone affected by the disease, but still, talking in such high numbers, millions, makes shockwaves go through me
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Post by Tiny on Aug 13, 2020 15:21:20 GMT -5
Florida and Texas have been going up the chart by gang busters for the last 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas tops California before the end of the month. Biker gangs? LOL! my slang didn't translate very well.... gangbusters? But I did have Sturgis South Dakota in the back of my mind...
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Aug 13, 2020 15:28:27 GMT -5
I think Texas and Florida are following a secret message that was found in online documents attributed to "Q" instructing them to achieve herd immunity as that is the only way to 'Save America" from the "deep state". So that's what they are doing.
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Aug 13, 2020 15:46:35 GMT -5
A State patrol officer in Oregon insisted on not wearing a mask in a coffee shop, got caught on camera and got suspended. I like the way my state handles things.
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Post by pulmonarymd on Aug 13, 2020 15:52:04 GMT -5
And here we are Approximately 1% of the US population has been infected and of those, about 4% had died Where did I read that it took only 28 days to reach the 3rd million cases? Is it too much to predict that by the end of the month there'll be another 1 million? Or more? Could we have 1.5% population infected beginning of August It makes me sad to see that this came to be. Earlier this month there was 1.5% of the US population infected with the virus. More than 3% of those have died. By early November, if things continue the same way, there could be 10 million infected, or 3% of population, and quarter million dead. Or by the end of the year the latest. This is a big country so talking in millions might not mean that by then everyone will have known someone affected by the disease, but still, talking in such high numbers, millions, makes shockwaves go through me The real number of infections is likely 5-10 times higher due to our testing problems and people who are infected but asymptomatic. So it is likely we have somewhere between 30-50 million infected so far
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 13, 2020 20:00:18 GMT -5
It makes me sad to see that this came to be. Earlier this month there was 1.5% of the US population infected with the virus. More than 3% of those have died. By early November, if things continue the same way, there could be 10 million infected, or 3% of population, and quarter million dead. Or by the end of the year the latest. This is a big country so talking in millions might not mean that by then everyone will have known someone affected by the disease, but still, talking in such high numbers, millions, makes shockwaves go through me The real number of infections is likely 5-10 times higher due to our testing problems and people who are infected but asymptomatic. So it is likely we have somewhere between 30-50 million infected so far the number I have been using is 7. and no, I can't back that up with anything other than my reading of the data (if we compare the death rate to the projected death rate, it indicates that the number of infections is 7x higher than we currently believe, worldwide).
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Post by Opti on Jun 14, 2021 16:21:09 GMT -5
It isn’t being enforced here. Store personnel are trying to enforce it in many cases. Some of those cases have resulted in violence. Sometimes, the Qarens (I use that to avoid insulting those named Karen) make complete arses of themselves over masking. I saw a video on Twitter where a guy went into a small market without a mask and spat on a display of oranges. The owner of the store saw it and brought a haymaker up from almost floor level and decked the guy. Some people are just very, very bad at accepting authority and/or honoring the rights of others. I know this is an old post, but I'm going to reply anyway. Because of health regulations, the store is required to damage out the display of oranges and anything possibly contaminated near it. That's not really just a rejection of authority. That's being an asshole who probably thinks he can get a bonus now by pissing off workers and/or infecting other people. I hope he got laid out flat as deserved. Here in June 2021 I now have to hand out masks to visitors or remind them to wear one. They think because they can go mask-less in the grocery store that its mask-less here too. Nope. We are a healthcare facility. I didn't give the last offender nuance, but I told him truthfully that the only place workers go maskless is in the break room. (Managers sometimes do so in their offices, but that's TMI.)
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Post by haapai on Jun 15, 2021 18:26:37 GMT -5
When I saw this thread resurrected, I was certain that it was going to mark 600,000 US deaths. We passed that mark today.
FWIW, this might be a good day to check out the UK's per capita new infections and trend line. I'd been operating under the foolish assumptions that the UK had lower infection rates than the US and that they were behaving cautiously in an attempt to push their numbers as low as possible before removing more restrictions. I was wrong on both counts. The UK currently has about three times as many new infections per capita as the US and their trend line is definitely pointing up despite having vaccination numbers that are roughly the same as the US as a whole. UK deaths are up too.
I think that Delta could really whallop us.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 15, 2021 18:31:05 GMT -5
Remember, the UK delayed giving the second vaccine. They wanted to give as many people first vaccines, then give second vaccines. May have been a mistake on their part
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