The Shape of the Covid19 Curve

[Tennesseer]

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Jul 7, 2020 18:01:57 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jul 6, 2020 12:59:00 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

What will be the rate of disability?  If about 10% of that young population that gets severe disease winds up with permanently damaged lungs courtesy of covid and on disability, will they care?

It doesn’t even have to be disability. People get chronic asthma from viral infections. So they may now have a chronic lung disease. Or diminished lung capacity from scarring. You can do day to day things, but more thss as n that, you get short of breath and have exercise limitations. You can become more susceptible to respiratory infections, such that they linger, and increase your risk of pneumonia. So you can have a change in your quality of life without being disabled. Doubt a young person would want that

Yeah.....I’ve watched this happen.  A friend of mine had asthma.  During a research meeting, we all caught some sort of respiratory crud.  For my friend, she wound up on a ventilator with pneumonia (luckily after we all got home).  She finally managed to clear the pneumonia and off the ventilator, but the infection damaged her lungs further.  From this point on, she needed supplemental oxygen.  She became a sitting duck for any other cold that blew her way.  About 3 years later, her lungs had enough.  

It wasn’t a nice way to go for a 50 year old woman either.

[djAdvocate]

we are going to have 1000 deaths again today.
first time in four weeks.

one out of every four cases worldwide is in the US, even though we are only 5% of the world by population.

if you think it is bad now, just wait until flu season.

[djAdvocate]

question- can we have him removed AFTER he loses election, and before January 21st? I really don't think we can wait 11 weeks.

[Spellbound454]

Jul 7, 2020 18:07:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

I don't understand this.

Does he think the US is so great that it doesn't need anyone else?

Does the US have all the answers?..... and other Countries are just annoyances that getting in the way.

The WHO are co-ordinating projects for the benefit of everyone.....ie.... research projects and vaccines, distribution and manufacture of medicines, sharing of technology, Plus HIV, Ebola 

If one Country in the World is suffering from Covid 19....... None of us are safe.

Nobody wants to be sick and alone.

I can't help thinking that if it was Obama, Bush, Clinton, Ford..... or any of the other presidents. The US would be taking the lead on this.

[Opti]

Jul 8, 2020 2:39:20 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jul 7, 2020 18:07:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

I don't understand this.

Does he think the US is so great that it doesn't need anyone else?

Does the US have all the answers?..... and other Countries are just annoyances that getting in the way.

The WHO are co-ordinating projects for the benefit of everyone.....ie.... research projects and vaccines, distribution and manufacture of medicines, sharing of technology, Plus HIV, Ebola 

If one Country in the World is suffering from Covid 19....... None of us are safe.

Nobody wants to be sick and alone.

I can't help thinking that if it was Obama, Bush, Clinton, Ford..... or any of the other presidents. The US would be taking the lead on this.

Its easy once you understand it is always about Trump and Trump generally does not solve problems, he creates them. In Trump world, he needs to blame people about the coronavirus. Actually leading and solving the issue of coronavirus in America is too hard and complicated so he's using his go to blame schtick. So who has he picked as targets for blaming why the US is in such a virus mess? The WHO and China. So to further his narrative, and continue to not solve the virus issue, he is withdrawing from the bad bad WHO.

The fact that it will leave the US more unprotected and in worse shape is just a feature of his plan. Much like his trade war with China in which he proved he sucks as a dealmaker. He really thought playing the US card would have them cave to us and instead parts of the US may have lost markets forever like the lobster industry in Maine. HIs slogan really should have been 'Only I can make it worse.' This is the guy who defunded the pandemic response for the US because he just wanted to make budget cuts. Thinking on the potential impact of those cuts apparently is too hard.

And yes other Presidents wouldn't have done this. Because they cared about America versus pretending to care about America by using flags as props.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 8, 2020 2:39:20 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jul 7, 2020 18:07:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

I don't understand this.

Does he think the US is so great that it doesn't need anyone else?

Does the US have all the answers?..... and other Countries are just annoyances that getting in the way.

The WHO are co-ordinating projects for the benefit of everyone.....ie.... research projects and vaccines, distribution and manufacture of medicines, sharing of technology, Plus HIV, Ebola 

If one Country in the World is suffering from Covid 19....... None of us are safe.

Nobody wants to be sick and alone.

I can't help thinking that if it was Obama, Bush, Clinton, Ford..... or any of the other presidents. The US would be taking the lead on this.

Of course we are better than everyone else. It’s why we have such high case totals and deaths, we are best at testing. Because of how good we are the virus is just going to get iup and leave the US. Who needs WHO or other countries anyway. And even if another country develops a vaccine, it is still going to be because of us somehow

[thyme4change]

I heard someone say that the existing of the WHO doesn't take effect until 2025, so the next President (even if Trump gets 4 more years).could reverse it. I guess if it takes place on Jan 1, 2025 they couldn't. I didn't read the article - does it say?

[Tennesseer]

Jul 8, 2020 8:18:37 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I heard someone say that the existing of the WHO doesn't take effect until 2025, so the next President (even if Trump gets 4 more years).could reverse it. I guess if it takes place on Jan 1, 2025 they couldn't. I didn't read the article - does it say?

Linked article states the withdrawl becomes effective on July 6, 2021. Could find nothing mention 2025.

[thyme4change]

Jul 8, 2020 8:32:59 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Jul 8, 2020 8:18:37 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I heard someone say that the existing of the WHO doesn't take effect until 2025, so the next President (even if Trump gets 4 more years).could reverse it. I guess if it takes place on Jan 1, 2025 they couldn't. I didn't read the article - does it say?

Linked article states the withdrawl becomes effective on July 6, 2021. Could find nothing mention 2025.

Ah, my source was poor. That is why I didnt state it confidently. Either I misunderstood (as I was only half listening) or they were mistaken. It wasn't the news - just jabbering opinion people.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 8, 2020 8:36:41 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 8, 2020 8:32:59 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Linked article states the withdrawl becomes effective on July 6, 2021. Could find nothing mention 2025.

Ah, my source was poor. That is why I didnt state it confidently. Either I misunderstood (as I was only half listening) or they were mistaken. It wasn't the news - just jabbering opinion people.

NBD (No big deal).

[tallguy]

Jul 8, 2020 2:39:20 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jul 7, 2020 18:07:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

I don't understand this.

Does he think the US is so great that it doesn't need anyone else?

Does the US have all the answers?..... and other Countries are just annoyances that getting in the way.

The WHO are co-ordinating projects for the benefit of everyone.....ie.... research projects and vaccines, distribution and manufacture of medicines, sharing of technology, Plus HIV, Ebola 

If one Country in the World is suffering from Covid 19....... None of us are safe.

Nobody wants to be sick and alone.

I can't help thinking that if it was Obama, Bush, Clinton, Ford..... or any of the other presidents. The US would be taking the lead on this.

We would also have been far, FAR better off with Hillary as president through this.  Not only was health care something that she was very involved with during Bill's presidency, but she was also known for actually doing the work and becoming informed herself.  By the time she met with experts, she would have done the research to intelligently discuss both the problem and the options available.  And perhaps of greatest benefit?  Her ego would not be in the way of solving the problem.

[Spellbound454]

What has the WHO done anyway?....... apart from try to make sure the poorer countries have guidance and medicines for their sick and dying.

Yes us richer Countries have to pay for it, (and why wouldn't we)....... and they cannot easily be manipulated

Right now they are the best hope some of these places have in getting much needed help. What else are we supposed to do?

It takes a year to be out of the WHO..... You are also leaving the UN in June next year.

and

There is some debate as to whether this virus is airborne.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 8, 2020 9:13:13 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

What has the WHO done anyway?....... apart from try to make sure the poorer countries have guidance and medicines for their sick and dying.

Yes us richer Countries have to pay for it, (and why wouldn't we)....... and they cannot easily be manipulated

Right now they are the best hope some of these places have in getting much needed help. What else are we supposed to do?

It takes a year to be out of the WHO..... You are also leaving the UN in June next year.

and

There is some debate as to whether this virus is airborne.

You sure about that? Or do you mean an organization connected to the U.N. like UNICEF.

[Spellbound454]

you are right

I read this

A State Department official confirmed to CNN that the administration has also sent a notice to the secretary-general of the United Nations stating its intention to withdraw effective July 6, 2021. The letter triggers a one-year timeline for the move.

I thought it meant you are leaving the UN.....but it means you have sent a letter to the UN........ to say you are leaving the WHO

Oh dear lost in translation...... this is how rumours start

[Tiny]

Jul 8, 2020 2:39:20 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jul 7, 2020 18:07:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Not a smart move (as usyal).

Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has officially withdrawn the United States from the World Health Organization, even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grip the globe and infections spike in many states across the U.S.

Congress received formal notification of the decision on Tuesday, more than a month after President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the U.S. relationship with the WHO and blasted the multilateral institution as a tool of China.

Democrats said the decision was irresponsible and ill-considered, noting it comes as the pandemic is raging and international cooperation is vital to confront the crisis.

"This won't protect American lives or interests – it leaves Americans sick & America alone," Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted after receiving the White House's notification. "To call Trump’s response to COVID chaotic & incoherent doesn't do it justice."

Complete article here: Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization as pandemic spikes

I don't understand this.

Does he think the US is so great that it doesn't need anyone else?

Does the US have all the answers?..... and other Countries are just annoyances that getting in the way.

The WHO are co-ordinating projects for the benefit of everyone.....ie.... research projects and vaccines, distribution and manufacture of medicines, sharing of technology, Plus HIV, Ebola 

If one Country in the World is suffering from Covid 19....... None of us are safe.

Nobody wants to be sick and alone.

I can't help thinking that if it was Obama, Bush, Clinton, Ford..... or any of the other presidents. The US would be taking the lead on this.

I'm not too surprised.  Trump (and the GOP) campaigned on Nationalism and "America First" and "isolationism".   That is what Trump's supporters want! 

Remember the talk about how America needed to stop "giving" our Tax dollars to foreign countries to be wasted?  The other countries needed to step up how much they give. America shouldn't be footing the bill.    During the campaign?    

This isn't out of character for Trump's administration.   Look at all the other stuff we'd said "buh bye!" to in the last 3 years.  

I'm wondering if America is conceding that we no longer a World Power (are over extended  and  cannot no longer compete with China (or Russia, or India?)) as a World Power so we're pulling back in a frantic effort to "strengthen a defensive position".       This would fall in line with the "Make America Great Agian"  -- which implied that America HAD already lost it's standing world wide before Trump took office. 

[thyme4change]

It has been 2 or 3 weeks since Trump's rallies. I haven't seen anything that says there were many cases related to those. We heard a couple of campaign people tested positive, and I think a reporter. But not a pile of cases that is traceable back to either rally.

Are the conservatives right? Are we putting in restrictions that are too restrictive?

[oped]

And then a choir practice with 80 some people gets 75 people infected. You can’t tell where super spreaders are. But hey. Go out if you want to. You’ll know in a month if it was the right call or not.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 8, 2020 9:48:24 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

It has been 2 or 3 weeks since Trump's rallies. I haven't seen anything that says there were many cases related to those. We heard a couple of campaign people tested positive, and I think a reporter. But not a pile of cases that is traceable back to either rally.

Are the conservatives right? Are we putting in restrictions that are too restrictive?

Have you looked at OK r value? In addition, seen their numbers rising?
I think the science on this is solid. Places with stronger restrictions and mask mandates are doing better right now. A phased opening with masks is the prudent approach, rather than an erratic, uncoordinated, who gives a shit approach. Takes a while for the effect of these things to be manifested. All the places that are surging were sure the were in good shape Memorial Day

[swamp]

www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

so much winning 

[thyme4change]

Jul 8, 2020 10:51:58 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jul 8, 2020 9:48:24 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

It has been 2 or 3 weeks since Trump's rallies. I haven't seen anything that says there were many cases related to those. We heard a couple of campaign people tested positive, and I think a reporter. But not a pile of cases that is traceable back to either rally.

Are the conservatives right? Are we putting in restrictions that are too restrictive?

Have you looked at OK r value? In addition, seen their numbers rising?
I think the science on this is solid. Places with stronger restrictions and mask mandates are doing better right now. A phased opening with masks is the prudent approach, rather than an erratic, uncoordinated, who gives a shit approach. Takes a while for the effect of these things to be manifested. All the places that are surging were sure the were in good shape Memorial Day

If they can find (see Oped's post) that 75 members of a choir that has been meeting, they should be able to find if someone has tested positive and did they attend the rally.

Either those states are willfully having a don't ask, don't tell policy about that, or they lucked out and there wasn't a spreader there.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 8, 2020 11:50:27 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 8, 2020 10:51:58 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Have you looked at OK r value? In addition, seen their numbers rising?
I think the science on this is solid. Places with stronger restrictions and mask mandates are doing better right now. A phased opening with masks is the prudent approach, rather than an erratic, uncoordinated, who gives a shit approach. Takes a while for the effect of these things to be manifested. All the places that are surging were sure the were in good shape Memorial Day

If they can find (see Oped's post) that 75 members of a choir that has been meeting, they should be able to find if someone has tested positive and did they attend the rally.

Either those states are willfully having a don't ask, don't tell policy about that, or they lucked out and there wasn't a spreader there.

In the last month, OK r has risen to 1.3, among the highest in the country, and increase started right around the time of the rally

[thyme4change]

With the number at 3M, it is highly likely you know someone who has tested positive. Depending on your friend's social media habits, you may not have been informed. But you probably know someone.

I know one, but haven't heard of anyone else that is someone I know personally. My son has two friends that are sick and waiting test results. Both athletes, both having lung/breathing issues. It would break my heart if they have permanent damage from this. One guy was thinking he would go pro - he was supposed to move to Brazil this summer. I'm not 100% convinced his assessment of his own skills were accurate - but, he is very good.

[thyme4change]

Jul 8, 2020 11:53:22 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jul 8, 2020 11:50:27 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

If they can find (see Oped's post) that 75 members of a choir that has been meeting, they should be able to find if someone has tested positive and did they attend the rally.

Either those states are willfully having a don't ask, don't tell policy about that, or they lucked out and there wasn't a spreader there.

In the last month, OK r has risen to 1.3, among the highest in the country, and increase started right around the time of the rally

I understand that. But we don't seemnto have proof that the rally contributed. It was already on its up. It is more likely that just generally being opened up, with millions of people milling around contributed more than 6,000 people going to one place. But, you would think that is something they would ask a person who tested positive, and we would know if there was a cluster there.

I am not disputing that we are spreading it. I am asking for actual proof that people who went to the rallies are infected at a higher rate than the gen pop.

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Jul 8, 2020 12:00:07 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 8, 2020 11:53:22 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

In the last month, OK r has risen to 1.3, among the highest in the country, and increase started right around the time of the rally

I understand that. But we don't seemnto have proof that the rally contributed. It was already on its up. It is more likely that just generally being opened up, with millions of people milling around contributed more than 6,000 people going to one place. But, you would think that is something they would ask a person who tested positive, and we would know if there was a cluster there.

I am not disputing that we are spreading it. I am asking for actual proof that people who went to the rallies are infected at a higher rate than the gen pop.

You are not going to find proof at this point.  This data will likely take about 6 months to track down.  The rally was about 2 weeks ago.  It took much longer than that for the information about the choir group to come out and that was a fairly limited population in an area where COVID rates were low.  I think we found out about it about 8 weeks AFTER the event happened.

At this point, the testing system is not going to be running a study looking at COVID rates of those who attended the rally vs those who did not.  They are having a hard enough time keeping their head above water on the suspected positives and exposures.  

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 8, 2020 12:00:07 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 8, 2020 11:53:22 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

In the last month, OK r has risen to 1.3, among the highest in the country, and increase started right around the time of the rally

I understand that. But we don't seemnto have proof that the rally contributed. It was already on its up. It is more likely that just generally being opened up, with millions of people milling around contributed more than 6,000 people going to one place. But, you would think that is something they would ask a person who tested positive, and we would know if there was a cluster there.

I am not disputing that we are spreading it. I am asking for actual proof that people who went to the rallies are infected at a higher rate than the gen pop.

What you are looking for requires someone caring about the data. Since we have a president who is actively flouting medical and scientific advice, and governors who are following his lead, you will not get what you are looking for, because it takes work to find it, something they are showing no interest in doing. Unless we see a further dramatic increase in r, it won't be obvious. It is clear that we are not doing enough to contain it. The science of epidemiology is clear, more frequent and closer contact spreads this. Do you really need proof that it was a bad idea. If this didn't do much, it is just pure luck, combined with low attendance. Next time, if a supper spreader is present in a crowd, it could be an absolute disaster. So the smart move is to not do it. But you need to listen to science before, because if you are wrong, watch out.

The republicans have been effective to a certain degree. They have us arguing about the wrong things.
 

[Spellbound454]

You have Dr Fauci ....... He seems to be saying the same things that our Scientists are saying.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 8, 2020 13:31:21 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

You have Dr Fauci ....... He seems to be saying the same things that our Scientists are saying.

All scientists who care about the data are saying the same thing, as is the overwhelming majority of physicians. It is only the politicians who want to hide, lie, or ignore the facts

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2020 11:56:37 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

With the number at 3M, it is highly likely you know someone who has tested positive. Depending on your friend's social media habits, you may not have been informed. But you probably know someone.

I know one, but haven't heard of anyone else that is someone I know personally. My son has two friends that are sick and waiting test results. Both athletes, both having lung/breathing issues. It would break my heart if they have permanent damage from this. One guy was thinking he would go pro - he was supposed to move to Brazil this summer. I'm not 100% convinced his assessment of his own skills were accurate - but, he is very good.

Several people at my job have tested positive. One of them was hospitalized with pneumonia in both lungs. As far as I know, she’s still recovering. My immediate supervisor has it and has been in the hospital since last week.

One of my coworker’s Mom died from it a couple weeks ago. And this last weekend, my best friend’s Mom died from it.

So yes, I personally know people who tested positive but had no or mild symptoms, people that were very ill with it, and someone who died from it.

[oped]

Black people are more likely to know people who have had it and have died from it, because they are more likely to have it and die from it. 


www.washingtonpost.com/health/almost-one-third-of-black-americans-know-someone-who-died-of-covid-19-survey-shows/2020/06/25/3ec1d4b2-b563-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html