djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2022 14:05:33 GMT -5
we will reach 1M before the end of this quarter. i have been watching how the death toll changes as a result of lower case load in places like South Africa, and the answer is "not much". the deaths per day will slowly glide down until the virus reaches endemic stage.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2022 15:04:23 GMT -5
i just realized that the average American knows TWO people who have died from Covid.
weird, right?
|
|
engineerdoe
Established Member
Joined: May 22, 2013 17:10:26 GMT -5
Posts: 497
|
Post by engineerdoe on Feb 18, 2022 15:36:59 GMT -5
We were able to snare three free N95 masks at our local WMT yesterday. Went to pharmacy and asked about them. They said go to the grocery entrance at the other entrance and ask for them there. I get it, the pharmacy is too busy most of the time to have all the people standing in line for masks, but it seemd like that would make the sensible place to give them out. I crossed the entire store and asked an associate standing there if she had any free masks. Said yes, went over to the customer sanitation hand cleaner kiosk and unlicked the lower cabinet and grabbed three of them for us. Now I have to get used to wearing these things. So different then the blue face masks! Should we give most of our blue masks away to someone or hang onto them? How long can we use the N95 masks before we need another one? I saw someone answered you but in case you missed it: "Virus particles trapped in the respirator will die off over the course of hours to days, so experts recommend letting an N95 or KN95 mask hang out in a cool, dry place for a day or two between outings. A simple method for implementing this resting period between uses is to put your mask in a brown paper bag for 24 to 48 hours before using it again." If you got three masks you could switch them out each day and you would end up wearing the same one every 48 hours. Perfect amount of time let it "rest". Most important thing is to not spray the mask with anything like lysol or something. Just let it air out on it's own. The bag helps to make sure you are not picking up a mask too soon if you number the bags.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,336
|
Post by Tennesseer on Feb 18, 2022 18:50:43 GMT -5
We were able to snare three free N95 masks at our local WMT yesterday. Went to pharmacy and asked about them. They said go to the grocery entrance at the other entrance and ask for them there. I get it, the pharmacy is too busy most of the time to have all the people standing in line for masks, but it seemd like that would make the sensible place to give them out. I crossed the entire store and asked an associate standing there if she had any free masks. Said yes, went over to the customer sanitation hand cleaner kiosk and unlicked the lower cabinet and grabbed three of them for us. Now I have to get used to wearing these things. So different then the blue face masks! Should we give most of our blue masks away to someone or hang onto them? How long can we use the N95 masks before we need another one? I saw someone answered you but in case you missed it: "Virus particles trapped in the respirator will die off over the course of hours to days, so experts recommend letting an N95 or KN95 mask hang out in a cool, dry place for a day or two between outings.A simple method for implementing this resting period between uses is to put your mask in a brown paper bag for 24 to 48 hours before using it again." If you got three masks you could switch them out each day and you would end up wearing the same one every 48 hours. Perfect amount of time let it "rest". Most important thing is to not spray the mask with anything like lysol or something. Just let it air out on it's own. The bag helps to make sure you are not picking up a mask too soon if you number the bags. My vehicle is parked on my driveway. I let my mask hang off the rear view mirror where is stays at least a couple days a week between wearing.
|
|
Tiny
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 29, 2010 21:22:34 GMT -5
Posts: 13,362
|
Post by Tiny on Mar 23, 2022 16:04:32 GMT -5
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 24, 2022 0:49:41 GMT -5
i am pretty good at math and projecting based on trends. but i can't predict where this ends up. it depends on what variants come, and how well we continue to vaccinate. so far, we get an F for how we handled it. i see little reason to expect us to improve.
this is how i have come to see the US/\
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Apr 29, 2022 21:41:33 GMT -5
bump just so I can check the link
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 1, 2022 9:56:47 GMT -5
the US death rate is APPROACHING a 2 year low. that is great. the infection rate, however, is NOT. it is 2x what it was A MONTH AGO, and 4x what it was in June of 2021. we still have work to do. i think Fauci is being a bit premature. he does that sometimes. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,336
|
Post by Tennesseer on May 5, 2022 8:14:17 GMT -5
Death Toll During Pandemic Far Exceeds Totals Reported by Countries, W.H.O. SaysNearly 15 million more people died during the first two years of the pandemic than would have been expected during normal times, the organization found. The previous count of virus deaths, from countries’ reporting, was six million. In Mexico, the excess death toll during the first two years of the pandemic was twice as high as the government’s official tally of Covid deaths. In Egypt, excess deaths were roughly 12 times as great as the official Covid toll. In Pakistan, the figure was eight times as high. Those estimates, along with others for nearly every nation, were calculated by a global panel of experts assembled by the World Health Organization and published on Thursday. Together they offered a startling glimpse of how drastically the death counts reported by many governments have understated the true toll of the pandemic. Overall, roughly 14.9 million more people worldwide died in 2020 and 2021 than would have been expected to in normal times, the experts estimated. Most were victims of Covid itself, they said, but some died because the pandemic made it more difficult to get medical care for ailments such as heart attacks. The previous toll, based solely on death counts reported by countries, was six million. Much of the loss of life from the pandemic was concentrated in 2021, when new and more contagious variants drove surges of the virus even in countries that had fended off earlier outbreaks. The total number of people who died globally in 2021 was roughly 18 percent larger — an extra 10 million people — than it would have been without the pandemic, the W.H.O.-assembled experts estimated. “It’s absolutely staggering what has happened with this pandemic, including our inability to accurately monitor it,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at St. Michael’s Hospital and the University of Toronto, who was a member of the expert working group that made the calculations. “It shouldn’t happen in the 21st century.” The W.H.O. assembled the expert team in the first months of the pandemic and tasked it with attempting to calculate a measure known as excess mortality: the difference between the number of people who died during the pandemic and the number who would have been expected to die in normal times. The calculations combined national data on reported deaths with new information from localities and household surveys, and with statistical models that aimed to account for deaths that were missed. The excess death data had been ready since January, but its release had been stalled by objections from India, which disputes the methodology for calculating how many of its citizens died. Nearly a third of the excess deaths globally — 4.7 million — took place in India, according to the W.H.O. estimates. The Indian government’s own figure through the end of 2021 is 481,080 deaths. Rest of article here: Death Toll During Pandemic Far Exceeds Totals Reported by Countries, W.H.O. Says
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,679
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
Member is Online
|
Post by Opti on May 5, 2022 9:04:22 GMT -5
I think many countries have not wanted to acknowledge how bad it was to themselves let alone their citizens. Also, perhaps they wanted to look better than other countries. I expected India's and China's numbers to be considerably under-counted.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2022 10:12:25 GMT -5
i just realized that the average American knows TWO people who have died from Covid. weird, right? it's three, now.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2022 10:14:03 GMT -5
Death Toll During Pandemic Far Exceeds Totals Reported by Countries, W.H.O. SaysNearly 15 million more people died during the first two years of the pandemic than would have been expected during normal times, the organization found. The previous count of virus deaths, from countries’ reporting, was six million. In Mexico, the excess death toll during the first two years of the pandemic was twice as high as the government’s official tally of Covid deaths. In Egypt, excess deaths were roughly 12 times as great as the official Covid toll. In Pakistan, the figure was eight times as high. Those estimates, along with others for nearly every nation, were calculated by a global panel of experts assembled by the World Health Organization and published on Thursday. Together they offered a startling glimpse of how drastically the death counts reported by many governments have understated the true toll of the pandemic. Overall, roughly 14.9 million more people worldwide died in 2020 and 2021 than would have been expected to in normal times, the experts estimated. Most were victims of Covid itself, they said, but some died because the pandemic made it more difficult to get medical care for ailments such as heart attacks. The previous toll, based solely on death counts reported by countries, was six million. Much of the loss of life from the pandemic was concentrated in 2021, when new and more contagious variants drove surges of the virus even in countries that had fended off earlier outbreaks. The total number of people who died globally in 2021 was roughly 18 percent larger — an extra 10 million people — than it would have been without the pandemic, the W.H.O.-assembled experts estimated. “It’s absolutely staggering what has happened with this pandemic, including our inability to accurately monitor it,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at St. Michael’s Hospital and the University of Toronto, who was a member of the expert working group that made the calculations. “It shouldn’t happen in the 21st century.” The W.H.O. assembled the expert team in the first months of the pandemic and tasked it with attempting to calculate a measure known as excess mortality: the difference between the number of people who died during the pandemic and the number who would have been expected to die in normal times. The calculations combined national data on reported deaths with new information from localities and household surveys, and with statistical models that aimed to account for deaths that were missed. The excess death data had been ready since January, but its release had been stalled by objections from India, which disputes the methodology for calculating how many of its citizens died. Nearly a third of the excess deaths globally — 4.7 million — took place in India, according to the W.H.O. estimates. The Indian government’s own figure through the end of 2021 is 481,080 deaths. Rest of article here: Death Toll During Pandemic Far Exceeds Totals Reported by Countries, W.H.O. Says i mentioned this before. in the US, even, there is significant undercount. when that is "fixed" partially by assaying excess deaths, the number will be closer to 1.5M dead in the US.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,679
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
Member is Online
|
Post by Opti on May 5, 2022 10:29:42 GMT -5
Crap US cases are getting to that inflection point of over 60K cases a day.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2022 10:54:31 GMT -5
yep. here we go again. i actually mentioned this a while back. cases per day have doubled in the last month.
the good news is that the death rate continues to fall. the bad news is that it is hard to imagine that continuing with caseloads rising 20% per week.
|
|
teen persuasion
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:49 GMT -5
Posts: 4,037
|
Post by teen persuasion on May 5, 2022 12:37:03 GMT -5
Current U.S. numbers are a fraction of real numbers. NY is only counting PCR tests. Most people aren't going to get a PCR test, now, it's all home tests, like the ones that confirmed DS4, and now me, have Covid. DS4 just thought he had a cold, went to work with a sore throat. Given our symptoms, I'd bet many people just think they have a cold, don't test, and try to power thru - exposing many others in the process. I'm hoping I didn't give it to my coworkers on Monday/Tuesday. I didn't have symptoms then, and tested negative. I only tested positive after a few days of symptoms. Quarantine/isolation isn't required until you either test positive or have symptoms, and then only 5 days. You are supposed to wear a mask for another 5 days after that.
|
|