jeffreymo
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Post by jeffreymo on Apr 1, 2020 8:59:08 GMT -5
The scary part is as big as this package is, it’s not going to be enough if this pandemic stretches on for a year or more. I'm going to hazard a guess and say that regardless of how long the pandemic itself stretches, at some point there's going to be a decision that the economy goes back to work in a more normal way. Ideally...absent the virus simply going away...the pandemic going on for a year is fine. That's the whole thing about flattening the curve...spread out the infection rate so the hospitals can handle the volume. At some point it just becomes the flu with a higher death rate from an economic perspective. People try not to get it...but they decide it's not worth shutting down the economy as a whole over. We're in a situation now where the best thing for health is the worst thing for the economy...economically it would be much better if everyone just got it Day 1, and then anyone who wasn't sick just kept working. That's horrible health-wise though. Healthwise it would be great if we all just avoided social contact till it's gone. That's horrible economically. At some point the economy is going to win out...and I'd guess much quicker than a year. Yes, I agree the economy won’t be shutdown for a year if this thing gets flattened until a vaccine is introduced. But even if the economy ramps back up starting May 1st it’s going to take a very long time for the millions to return to work. Probably years. And when the stimulus’ unemployment boost runs out in 4 months there will still be millions that can’t pay their rents and mortgages.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 1, 2020 9:54:48 GMT -5
I am curious on how the economy would be "ramped back up"? If President Trump announces, "Everyone can go out" will they? If Major League Baseball starts playing games, what would attendance numbers look like? If schools reopen will parents just send their children? Theaters? Restaurants?
How separable is the machinary of "The Economy" from the thoughts and feelings of each individual human being involved? Or are we just cogs within that machine who just need a proper application of a wrench to start turning again?
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jeffreymo
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Joined: Jan 21, 2011 12:32:17 GMT -5
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Post by jeffreymo on Apr 1, 2020 10:02:47 GMT -5
I am curious on how the economy would be "ramped back up"? If President Trump announces, "Everyone can go out" will they? If Major League Baseball starts playing games, what would attendance numbers look like? If schools reopen will parents just send their children? Theaters? Restaurants? How separable is the machinary of "The Economy" from the thoughts and feelings of each individual human being involved? Or are we just cogs within that machine who just need a proper application of a wrench to start turning again? Right. That’s why some people are saying we will enter a depression.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 1, 2020 10:07:33 GMT -5
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on Apr 1, 2020 10:21:54 GMT -5
I am curious on how the economy would be "ramped back up"? If President Trump announces, "Everyone can go out" will they? If Major League Baseball starts playing games, what would attendance numbers look like? If schools reopen will parents just send their children? Theaters? Restaurants? How separable is the machinary of "The Economy" from the thoughts and feelings of each individual human being involved? Or are we just cogs within that machine who just need a proper application of a wrench to start turning again? Given how many people seem to want to violate current advice/demands that people self-isolate...it doesn't seem like it would take much to get people back out in general. I think you might still be likely to see people with underlying health issues and the elderly avoiding public places...but I think for the masses...we already see those people attempting to do as much as they can get away with...even when it is currently deemed an emergency NOT to do it. I think a good portion of that ramping up is simply people no longer being able to isolate. If both parents work and transition from working from home to going to the office as required...will they have much choice but to send their kids to school? If they have a habit of going out for lunch every day when they work...I don't see them just deciding not to do that anymore. This might drive a shift in the economy (i.e. people get used to having food delivery and realize they love it, or grocery pickup, etc). As an example, I've got a 3 year old and a 1 year old. We're generally isolating about as much as we can. At some point those kids need new clothes. If we weren't in a pandemic, we'd have been at the mall a couple weeks ago to get them spring clothes. We're holding, holding, holding...but at some point those kids are gonna get new clothes because their current ones just don't fit. We've held off on all business travel at the moment, but the moment it's officially "all clear" it's going to be flights, travel, hotel, meals, etc everywhere...because the business demands it. I have to imagine that most people who want to buy a new house are holding off at the moment...those people aren't simply going to say "nevermind" forever. Same for cars. Things like "theaters" don't really constitute big pieces of the economy...restaurants certainly do...and how the economy changes with food delivery or not will certainly impact things. Big portions will just bounce back naturally though. People going back to work who work at home now means more money spent on transportation of all kinds, more likely money spent on food outside of the home, more willingness to stop by the store and grab things they need. There are a lot of things which just kind of "snap back" once people are back out and leaving the house...and then other things that depend on individuals. I think frankly it's more of the "cog" analogy...the question to me will really be how many of those cogs have been removed due to unemployment and unable to get themselves back into the machine quickly.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 1, 2020 11:46:05 GMT -5
Most people I know are dying to get out and about. I am planning a trip for July.
Personally, I can't wait to be able to sit in a restaurant with my friends again, see my co-workers, or just walk around a theme park or a zoo.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on Apr 1, 2020 11:51:41 GMT -5
Most people I know are dying to get out and about. I am planning a trip for July.
Personally, I can't wait to be able to sit in a restaurant with my friends again, see my co-workers, or just walk around a theme park or a zoo.
Agreed...I think economic impact has a lot more to do with how many people are CAPABLE of participating in the economy as normal due to job loss/re-hire/employment than it does with people's willingness to go back to previous levels of economic participation.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 1, 2020 12:27:00 GMT -5
Most people I know are dying to get out and about. ...
Interesting wording. Hopefully that won't be the case for most.
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Deleted
Joined: Mar 28, 2024 5:27:13 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2020 12:50:41 GMT -5
Start up is going to be interesting. I was just thinking about how awful my kid's hair is going to be if this goes until June...they both need cuts NOW. I'm guessing a lot of people will be in the same boat and the barbershops and salons will be overrun when they reopen.
Really, not much shut down in my town besides that. The furniture and clothing stores I guess, but I can't tell you the last time I was in one of those.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 1, 2020 12:52:06 GMT -5
Most people I know are dying to get out and about. ...
Interesting wording. Hopefully that won't be the case for most. I didn't even think about how I worded that
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 1, 2020 13:00:14 GMT -5
I will say this entire experience has been sort of surreal for me. I am not a doomsday person and just want to live my life. This has been difficult because this shit is for real.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 1, 2020 13:12:55 GMT -5
I will say this entire experience has been sort of surreal for me. I am not a doomsday person and just want to live my life. This has been difficult because this shit is for real. My reality is that I don't have a great retirement financial picture which will grant me freedom to do a lot, don't have a serious connection to grand kids like some, don't have a great hobby that I am looking forward to finally having time to pursue, etc. I know my wife would be "less than pleased" if I died but that will be whenever it happens. I have had a good time on the planet. Experienced enough to be satisfied I didn't waste the opportunity to be alive. When it comes to death, I am a Bokonanist: The Last Rites of the Bokononism [ 99 ] (Each line is said once by the person giving the rites and then repeated by the dying person.) God made mud. God got lonesome. So God said to some of the mud, "Sit up!" "See all I've made," said God, "the hills, the sea, the sky, the stars." And I was some of the mud that got to sit up and look around. Lucky me, lucky mud. I, mud, sat up and saw what a nice job God had done. Nice going, God. Nobody but you could have done it, God! I certainly couldn't have. I feel very unimportant compared to You. The only way I can feel the least bit important is to think of all the mud that didn't even get to sit up and look around. I got so much, and most mud got so little. Thank you for the honor! Now mud lies down again and goes to sleep. What memories for mud to have! What interesting other kinds of sitting-up mud I met! I loved everything I saw! Good night. I will go to heaven now. link
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Apr 1, 2020 13:25:24 GMT -5
Start up is going to be interesting. I was just thinking about how awful my kid's hair is going to be if this goes until June...they both need cuts NOW. I'm guessing a lot of people will be in the same boat and the barbershops and salons will be overrun when they reopen.
Really, not much shut down in my town besides that. The furniture and clothing stores I guess, but I can't tell you the last time I was in one of those.
My hair stylist came to my house last weekend - and I got my hair colored and a trim. She was making house calls. It brought back alot of childhood memories of my mom coloring her hair at home. And then my brothers and cousins getting their spring "buzz cut" outside in the yard. My dad or my uncle would do the cuts. My mom would cut my hair - I think my aunt and my mom cut each other's hair (I was like 5yo and the only girl... I was pissed cause I didn't understand why every one else got a buzz cut - but I couldn't. I have always been the odd man (woman) out. )
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 1, 2020 13:28:58 GMT -5
I am debating cutting my own. I would lose the layers but in general the cut I have is one that it would not look terrible lopsided or a little choppy. The issue is shaving the underside without taking off the rest of my hair in the process.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Apr 1, 2020 13:35:01 GMT -5
i think the start up will depend on how many people have 'disposable' income to spend on restaurants and entertainment and new clothes and new stuff in general. We currently 'outsource' a lot of things in our daily lives = if too many people have found ways to do stuff at home (coffee maker for example) and don't go back to all the "convenience" and "time saving" things they were doing before the pandemic.. then SOME of the places of employment and jobs won't come back.
I'm not a very good consumer - I don't buy alot of disposable one time stuff on a weekly basis.
On the other hand, I have contracted for another year with my lawn service and I have renewed/paid for my season tickets for the late 20/21 season. and if I can - I will take my car in for it's scheduled maintenance in May 2020.
I will admit I'm saving a ton of money on commute costs and what little 'eating out' I would be doing if I was going to the office everyday. And it looks like I might be able to skip my "spring work clothes" spending... and go right to replacing "summer work clothes". So there's some savings there, too.
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Apr 10, 2020 10:45:33 GMT -5
The IRS has updated a list of filings extended until July 15. Besides your 1st quarter estimated tax, now your 2nd quarter estimated tax has also been moved to July 15, which only makes sense. See article in CNBC for more info.
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