teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Apr 6, 2020 21:02:36 GMT -5
They haven't announced whether schools will reopen here, either (Cuomo just extended school closings out to 4/29).
But the Board of Regents announced that all Regents exams are cancelled for this school year. Regents are scheduled for end of June, so... don't really think school is reopening before September, if then, even.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 13:07:23 GMT -5
Looking at Italy, ‘peak’ is likely to be a plateau. They are finally under 4000 new cases a day. Their death rate is lagging but that is to be expected. Considering how social the Italians are, how many tourists they have, and how they dragged their feet with quarantines, the virus there will plateau because nearly everyone will have been exposed to it.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 7, 2020 13:15:44 GMT -5
Thing is, there is no "going back to normal" unless you have effective treatment, a vaccine, or have had the virus and immunity prevents you from being reinfected (something that's not even known at this point if it's possible). The minute people are allowed to roam free again, the next wave of the pandemic starts. I don't understand why the US press refuses to explain that to people and the POtuS keeps telling people the opposite. This is true but we are going to have to return to at least semi-normal at some point. We can't keep doing what we are doing. People are already getting depressed, domestic violence calls are up, kids are falling behind education wise and overall people will go bat shit crazy if we do this much longer. At some point those that want to continue to quarantine will do so and others will go back to a bit of normalcy.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 13:22:16 GMT -5
My state locked down before NY did, when there were only a handful of cases in the whole state. Despite having high testing per capita, we've had below average cases and deaths. The curve has been flattened here, but the problem with that is that we're not going to have heard immunity until the vaccine is available. And we can't stay in lockdown forever.
I don't expect the schools to reopen until next fall at the earliest.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 13:30:10 GMT -5
Thing is, there is no "going back to normal" unless you have effective treatment, a vaccine, or have had the virus and immunity prevents you from being reinfected (something that's not even known at this point if it's possible). The minute people are allowed to roam free again, the next wave of the pandemic starts. I don't understand why the US press refuses to explain that to people and the POtuS keeps telling people the opposite. I think most people have figured that out. My kid's friends won't even do playdates at the park. There's always going to be some people who are willing to take the risk. That doesn't automatically mean they think COVD-19 is going away anytime soon.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Apr 7, 2020 13:58:18 GMT -5
MD‘s infection rate may possibly be trending downwards. I am cautiously hopeful. I’m also doing my eyesight no favors trying to line up the infections-discovered curve with the CV-associated deaths curve. It looks like the lag is about 5 days? That seems too short.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 7, 2020 14:23:54 GMT -5
Very depressing today Last few days NYC had lower deaths, yesterday went up to 731
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 7, 2020 14:28:57 GMT -5
Very depressing today Last few days NYC had lower deaths, yesterday went up to 731 Death is a lagging statistic with this... the three day average of new cases is down though as are new hospitalizations... which if they continue are good trends.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 16:03:49 GMT -5
I think we will be able to see what happens in China and Europe.
People choosing to go back to work/school and taking the risk means they also put everyone else at risk as well. If the government tells people they can go back to school and work, then outbreaks will just happen again and overwhelm the healthcare system.
Flattening the curve isn't about getting rid of the pandemic. It's simply slowing down the infection rate and spreading it over a longer period of time so the healthcare system doesn't completely collapse. It does nothing for fighting the virus itself or lessening risk of getting it or dying from it.
I assume if I get it, then I'd probably die from it because I have crappy lungs and am overweight. So, I continue to stock up and prepare for the day when people decide screw it I'm gonna do what I want, and then I have to hide at home because places like grocery stores will become more dangerous.
I honestly think getting out of this with the fewest dead requires an alternative way of thinking other than "life as normal" and the past economy. If there isn't a shift in that thinking, and I have no hope there will be, then a horrible second wave is in our future. We only need to look to history to see how that plays out.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 7, 2020 16:12:04 GMT -5
They haven't announced whether schools will reopen here, either (Cuomo just extended school closings out to 4/29). But the Board of Regents announced that all Regents exams are cancelled for this school year. Regents are scheduled for end of June, so... don't really think school is reopening before September, if then, even. When does your school year end? We discovered that ending school in early-mid May isn't universal when we took a trip the second week of June and most schools were still in session. Once we got to keeping schools close through mid or late April, it seems to make sense to just finish up the whole year. But if you have 5 or 6 weeks, maybe it is worth to go back.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 7, 2020 16:39:21 GMT -5
I think we will be able to see what happens in China and Europe. People choosing to go back to work/school and taking the risk means they also put everyone else at risk as well. If the government tells people they can go back to school and work, then outbreaks will just happen again and overwhelm the healthcare system. Flattening the curve isn't about getting rid of the pandemic. It's simply slowing down the infection rate and spreading it over a longer period of time so the healthcare system doesn't completely collapse. It does nothing for fighting the virus itself or lessening risk of getting it or dying from it. I assume if I get it, then I'd probably die from it because I have crappy lungs and am overweight. So, I continue to stock up and prepare for the day when people decide screw it I'm gonna do what I want, and then I have to hide at home because places like grocery stores will become more dangerous. I honestly think getting out of this with the fewest dead requires an alternative way of thinking other than "life as normal" and the past economy. If there isn't a shift in that thinking, and I have no hope there will be, then a horrible second wave is in our future. We only need to look to history to see how that plays out. I agree we should attempt to get out with the fewest deaths possible but you can't expect people to live like this for 18 months until they find a vaccine. It isn't feasible. We aren't just talking about closing restaurants and bars here. Currently, dentists and optometrists are only seeing emergency patients so they are only working 1-2 days per week. Same with other healthcare professionals like physical therapist, etc. No hair stylists, massage therapist, people working at theme parks, hotels, cruise lines, airlines, etc. are all out of work. All of that trickles down so if people aren't making money then they aren't buying iPhones and other things which will eventually put more people out of work. Almost everyone I know is fearful of losing their jobs. It is really easy for retired people who have already built their wealth to tell the rest of us to get over it and sacrifice our families and our futures. I don't want people to die from this virus. I don't want to die from this or see those in my family that are vulnerable die from it but people are starting to say this isn't living...I certainly have no answers to this mess but it makes more sense to me that we do this thing in waves rather than expect everyone to stay locked up for the next 18 months.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 7, 2020 16:52:00 GMT -5
They haven't announced whether schools will reopen here, either (Cuomo just extended school closings out to 4/29). But the Board of Regents announced that all Regents exams are cancelled for this school year. Regents are scheduled for end of June, so... don't really think school is reopening before September, if then, even. When does your school year end? We discovered that ending school in early-mid May isn't universal when we took a trip the second week of June and most schools were still in session. Once we got to keeping schools close through mid or late April, it seems to make sense to just finish up the whole year. But if you have 5 or 6 weeks, maybe it is worth to go back. Our schools have been closed for the year since last Thursday. The end of the school year is the second week of June. They start after Labor Day.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 7, 2020 16:58:11 GMT -5
Another big jump in cases here I'm Michigan, but the doubling has noey stretched out to 6 days.
I had to drive to the office today to pick up a monitor. I'm still surprised by the amount of traffic there still is out there mid-afternoon. Our state is supposedly doing well by the cell-phone GPS data, but I don't see it. I do see a ton more people walking and riding bikes, though. At least we're still allowed to go to the beach for now. Not that it's beach weather, but it's still nice to go for a walk there sometimes.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 7, 2020 18:04:47 GMT -5
Very depressing today Last few days NYC had lower deaths, yesterday went up to 731 Death is a lagging statistic with this... the three day average of new cases is down though as are new hospitalizations... which if they continue are good trends. Yes I know but a depressing number of deaths in the city and state where my family lives
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Apr 7, 2020 18:28:12 GMT -5
Flattening the curve isn't about getting rid of the pandemic. It's simply slowing down the infection rate and spreading it over a longer period of time so the healthcare system doesn't completely collapse. It does nothing for fighting the virus itself or lessening risk of getting it or dying from it.Actually, flattening the curve will increase your chances of survival. While there aren't effective drugs to fight the virus right now, there might be in 6 months. Moreover, if the hospitals are not overwhelmed, they can better help their patients survive, get them onto ventilators quicker, etc. Everyone who survives until a vaccine is developed has a very good chance of surviving long term. Studies of the 1918 pandemic show that the cities which took measures sooner and for longer had fewer total deaths. Moreover, their economies did better. ( New York Times: Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It)
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Apr 7, 2020 18:30:16 GMT -5
They haven't announced whether schools will reopen here, either (Cuomo just extended school closings out to 4/29). But the Board of Regents announced that all Regents exams are cancelled for this school year. Regents are scheduled for end of June, so... don't really think school is reopening before September, if then, even. When does your school year end? We discovered that ending school in early-mid May isn't universal when we took a trip the second week of June and most schools were still in session. Once we got to keeping schools close through mid or late April, it seems to make sense to just finish up the whole year. But if you have 5 or 6 weeks, maybe it is worth to go back. Just checked the school calendar - last scheduled Regents exam was June 25, thus the last day of school. Graduation would be June 27. This is the 4th week out of school. DH had to close out his quarterly grades last week, so we've just entered the 4th quarter. Which means the kids lost 3 weeks in 3rd quarter, and likely the entire 4th quarter. When he was closing out his grades we were talking about how idiotic the current calendar is. The quarters should be aligned with the break weeks. Having 2nd quarter lap over into January (and a smattering of mid-year Regents in the middle of January) is dumb, after a 10 day or 2 week break. Having 3rd quarter start one week before spring break, also dumb. Can't we have a quarter, close it, have a break week, start new quarter, break, repeat?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 18:52:22 GMT -5
Flattening the curve isn't about getting rid of the pandemic. It's simply slowing down the infection rate and spreading it over a longer period of time so the healthcare system doesn't completely collapse. It does nothing for fighting the virus itself or lessening risk of getting it or dying from it.Actually, flattening the curve will increase your chances of survival. While there aren't effective drugs to fight the virus right now, there might be in 6 months. Moreover, if the hospitals are not overwhelmed, they can better help their patients survive, get them onto ventilators quicker, etc. Everyone who survives until a vaccine is developed has a very good chance of surviving long term. Studies of the 1918 pandemic show that the cities which took measures sooner and for longer had fewer total deaths. Moreover, their economies did better. ( New York Times: Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It) Yes, which makes a stronger argument for social distancing longer term vs. the screw everyone open things up I need to make money plan. More people will die.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 19:11:50 GMT -5
I think we will be able to see what happens in China and Europe. People choosing to go back to work/school and taking the risk means they also put everyone else at risk as well. If the government tells people they can go back to school and work, then outbreaks will just happen again and overwhelm the healthcare system. Flattening the curve isn't about getting rid of the pandemic. It's simply slowing down the infection rate and spreading it over a longer period of time so the healthcare system doesn't completely collapse. It does nothing for fighting the virus itself or lessening risk of getting it or dying from it. I assume if I get it, then I'd probably die from it because I have crappy lungs and am overweight. So, I continue to stock up and prepare for the day when people decide screw it I'm gonna do what I want, and then I have to hide at home because places like grocery stores will become more dangerous. I honestly think getting out of this with the fewest dead requires an alternative way of thinking other than "life as normal" and the past economy. If there isn't a shift in that thinking, and I have no hope there will be, then a horrible second wave is in our future. We only need to look to history to see how that plays out. There are some jobs where you have to be there. But if your job just involves pushing buttons on a computer, there is no good reason for you to go back to work until the vaccine is widely available. But if employers are given a choice, they're going to require their employees to come in. My FIL works a call center job. He has good internet at home, so there is no good reason why he should go into work, especially since he and my MIL don't stand a chance if exposed. But his employer is a dick, so he's going in every day. It makes me angry just to think about it.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 7, 2020 19:13:03 GMT -5
Actually, flattening the curve will increase your chances of survival. While there aren't effective drugs to fight the virus right now, there might be in 6 months. Moreover, if the hospitals are not overwhelmed, they can better help their patients survive, get them onto ventilators quicker, etc. Everyone who survives until a vaccine is developed has a very good chance of surviving long term. Studies of the 1918 pandemic show that the cities which took measures sooner and for longer had fewer total deaths. Moreover, their economies did better. ( New York Times: Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It) Yes, which makes a stronger argument for social distancing longer term vs. the screw everyone open things up I need to make money plan. More people will die. And dead people don’t spend money. Dead people don’t go to the hairdresser, the dentist, restaurants, theaters, ball games. If they screw up and open things up too soon, not only will more people die, but the economy will be worse.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 7, 2020 19:13:45 GMT -5
I'm wondering about colleges next school year. Or all schools I guess...
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 7, 2020 19:30:38 GMT -5
Yes, which makes a stronger argument for social distancing longer term vs. the screw everyone open things up I need to make money plan. More people will die. And dead people don’t spend money. Dead people don’t go to the hairdresser, the dentist, restaurants, theaters, ball games. If they screw up and open things up too soon, not only will more people die, but the economy will be worse. What is considered too soon? I guess I don't know when the right time is supposed to be? I don't think it is feasible to wait until there is a vaccine. I don't want people to die, especially people I love, but I also don't really want to see people dying from domestic violence, lack of healthcare and civil unrest. I believe as citizens we are absolutely doing the right thing by social distancing, and I believe we can do it for another 6-8 weeks. I'm not sure anything past that is feasible. I can see us doing this again for a couple of months this winter. Hopefully after that run there will at least be treatment available.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 7, 2020 20:24:03 GMT -5
The right time is when we have millions of rapid response infection tests... millions of effective antibody tests... stockpiles at every site of PPE and ventilators in place to mobilize quickly to handle a surge. ( Possibly one stockpile per region for ventilators? )
Unfortunately I can't see that any of this is happening? Or likely to happen with the current 'leadership'.
Some kind of effective treatment protocols would be nice if possible. Some people will likely choose to shelter to vaccine due to complicating conditions.
Timeline to a vaccine may be reduced to some degree by Gate's pledge to start producing the top 7 vaccines during the testing phases, with the willingness to anything that doesn't work when we, hopefully, find the one that does.
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Apr 7, 2020 20:29:39 GMT -5
What is considered too soon? I guess I don't know when the right time is supposed to be? I don't think it is feasible to wait until there is a vaccine. I don't want people to die, especially people I love, but I also don't really want to see people dying from domestic violence, lack of healthcare and civil unrest. I believe as citizens we are absolutely doing the right thing by social distancing, and I believe we can do it for another 6-8 weeks. I'm not sure anything past that is feasible. I can see us doing this again for a couple of months this winter. Hopefully after that run there will at least be treatment available. There are several things that are necessary. Hopefully within a few months we will have some treatments to keep more people alive. Using the blood of folks who now have antibodies is a promising treatment. They've already looked at drugs for treating previous similar virus diseases so they have a head start on developing new drugs for this virus. They also have to have tests widely available to test if a person has the virus and, maybe more importantly, who has had the disease and now had antibodies. Anyone with antibodies can probably not get sick from it again, at least for a period of time. Nor can they give it to anyone, so they are ideal to take care of folks in nursing homes, stock the grocery shelves, wait on you at a restaurant, etc.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 20:52:41 GMT -5
And dead people don’t spend money. Dead people don’t go to the hairdresser, the dentist, restaurants, theaters, ball games. If they screw up and open things up too soon, not only will more people die, but the economy will be worse. What is considered too soon? I guess I don't know when the right time is supposed to be? I don't think it is feasible to wait until there is a vaccine. I don't want people to die, especially people I love, but I also don't really want to see people dying from domestic violence, lack of healthcare and civil unrest. I believe as citizens we are absolutely doing the right thing by social distancing, and I believe we can do it for another 6-8 weeks. I'm not sure anything past that is feasible. I can see us doing this again for a couple of months this winter. Hopefully after that run there will at least be treatment available. The virus doesn't care people are impatient and need money. In fact, that same human need to get back to work and mingle with other people actually helps it propagate and kill more people. If you allow people to stop social distancing after a set period of time when there still isn't ample testing or another plan to go along with it such as monitoring, tracing, and quarantine, you will immediately see a second wave of outbreak. Why would we "start again in winter"? This virus won't disappear in the summer. That was Trump BS. The virus is here to stay, highly-transmissible by people who don't even know they are sick, and isn't going anywhere. Right now, the sole way you can avoid rapid spread of the virus is social distancing. That's it. Bill Gates talked about it on the PBS NewsHour tonight and how it is reasonable to expect 2022 will be when a vaccine is available and people could potentially completely stop social distancing. Like everyone else, I don't really know what the answer is. But, exponential virus growth is a simple logarithmic equation... If we don't go with it's rules, then people will perish.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 7, 2020 20:55:58 GMT -5
The virus might slow down in hot humid conditions. We don't know yet exactly how it will act. It doesn't currently seem to mind being all over the globe. One thing I read said that hot humid places with air conditioning are not seeing the decreases that hot humid places without air conditioning are seeing... so... we might need to make some choices there as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 21:26:16 GMT -5
No A/C might be okay, since at this point it's only been above freezing a handful of nights since I moved here! I plan to become a lizard during our very short summer season. I think ALL media needs to do a better job of educating people about the virus and the options for dealing with it. The book seems to be coming out one page at a time and I think a lot of people have unrealistic expectations about what's to come. I don't think it's all negative, doom and gloom, but the virus doesn't care what we think, we just have to deal with it on its terms for the time being.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Apr 7, 2020 21:29:33 GMT -5
Florida is ramping up too.
And here in the last 22 hours, we went from 4944 to 5507 in Indiana. I think 139 deaths to 170. so we are getting hit.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 21:31:15 GMT -5
I'm wondering about colleges next school year. Or all schools I guess... If they have a brain in their heads, they'll go online. Yes, there are some classes that have labs, but there's no reason why students couldn't knock out the non-lab classes in the next school years.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 21:41:41 GMT -5
Actually, flattening the curve will increase your chances of survival. While there aren't effective drugs to fight the virus right now, there might be in 6 months. Moreover, if the hospitals are not overwhelmed, they can better help their patients survive, get them onto ventilators quicker, etc. Everyone who survives until a vaccine is developed has a very good chance of surviving long term. Studies of the 1918 pandemic show that the cities which took measures sooner and for longer had fewer total deaths. Moreover, their economies did better. ( New York Times: Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It) Yes, which makes a stronger argument for social distancing longer term vs. the screw everyone open things up I need to make money plan. More people will die. The problem is hunger, homelessness, stress, abuse, and despair (drug use, suicide, etc.) kill people too, and these things are pretty common in families experiencing job loss, school closures, and quarantines. DS#2 is in a special needs classroom. Many of his classmates are a handful. It won't surprise me at all if one of his classmates end up dead because their parents couldn't handle it. Domestic violence and child abuse are skyrocketing right now. And a lot of those lifesaving government programs are dependent on local sales taxes.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 7, 2020 22:01:10 GMT -5
The virus might slow down in hot humid conditions. We don't know yet exactly how it will act. It doesn't currently seem to mind being all over the globe. One thing I read said that hot humid places with air conditioning are not seeing the decreases that hot humid places without air conditioning are seeing... so... we might need to make some choices there as well. You have to wonder how many of those places without AC have widespread testing and accurate reporting.
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