teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Mar 31, 2020 19:23:53 GMT -5
That article is sketchy, to me. The writer is obviously not a native English speaker, everything is phrased weirdly. That was hard to read! I only got thru the first paragraph and gave up. I started slacking off as I realized how long it was, and as it got more and more iffy. First, the non-standard English, then the repeated references to a bacterial infection (um, no, Covid-19 is a virus), links to sources I never heard of. I'd initially thought the abc14news title was some ABC affiliate station somewhere in the US, but started getting suspicious that it wasn't really - didn't use the normal ABC logo, and again, the poor English (yet the byline had a western name and photo). Googling abc14news to see if it was a real US station, I found links that said it wasn't.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Mar 31, 2020 21:53:23 GMT -5
Time:2030 TV ad: Were you exposed to excessive amounts of Lysol, hand sanitizer or bleach during the Corona crisis. If so you may be eligible for compensation. Call 800-555-1212
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 1, 2020 14:47:42 GMT -5
So, clicking on the graph on today's chart gets me 9334 cases for Mich as of today. That takes us back to doubling the number from 4 days ago- 4650. It's stretching out, but we've still got a long way to go.
My DH was planning on going into work this morning, but the batteries on both vehicles were dead. He's going to go in tomorrow. I wish he wouldn't, but he says he'd have to work 80 hours from home because some of the things he needs to do take so much longer out of the office.
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emma1420
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Post by emma1420 on Apr 1, 2020 16:40:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure if anyone knows..but how long after the peak before we can return to normal...How long into the flattening of the curve? I actually think that we may be entering the curve flattening. But, with 18-20K new cases a day, as our steady state, we're not going to be opening businesses back up. It looks like china opened up when there maybe 500 to 1K new cases a day.
Do we think we'll move to opening up the when there's only 1-2K new cases a day? Maybe 5K?
The peak in our state is the end of April. I'm assuming business as usual will not begin May 1..But when? Or, do we not care because I think based on CDC estimates, there's 200K cases of the regular flu a day during flu season...and we all manage to keep everything open as usual?
Honestly, I don't think things will get completely back to normal until the end of next year, when a vaccine is potentially widely available. I think we might get back to somewhat normal around July or August. The peak for my state is estimated to be the end of April, and then I think it will be another month to six weeks at least before the stay-at-home order will be lifted. But, even then I think there will be restrictions on group size for a couple more months. And that will only happen if testing is widely available.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 1, 2020 17:02:05 GMT -5
We will see if there is a late fall/winter resurgence. We may be back to this as a Christmas present.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 1, 2020 17:30:09 GMT -5
Cuomo is saying peak will be end of April in NY, that means extends into May at least
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emma1420
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Post by emma1420 on Apr 2, 2020 16:22:32 GMT -5
Cuomo is saying peak will be end of April in NY, that means extends into May at least Earliest this will be over is mid-to-late June. Most states are scheduled to have their peak number of cases in late April or early May, and then it will probably take a good 4-6 weeks to get the numbers low enough to lift the stay-at-home orders. At least for this round. Unless we find some sort of miracle drug in the next 2 weeks. Which we won't.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2020 17:03:19 GMT -5
Cuomo is saying peak will be end of April in NY, that means extends into May at least Earliest this will be over is mid-to-late June. Most states are scheduled to have their peak number of cases in late April or early May, and then it will probably take a good 4-6 weeks to get the numbers low enough to lift the stay-at-home orders. At least for this round. Unless we find some sort of miracle drug in the next 2 weeks. Which we won't. They can't lift the stay-at-home orders or the virus outbreaks return. Unless they lift the restrictions only for those who have already had the virus. Problem with that is there's no testing so no way to know who those people are.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 2, 2020 17:30:08 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 2, 2020 18:04:01 GMT -5
Earliest this will be over is mid-to-late June. Most states are scheduled to have their peak number of cases in late April or early May, and then it will probably take a good 4-6 weeks to get the numbers low enough to lift the stay-at-home orders. At least for this round. Unless we find some sort of miracle drug in the next 2 weeks. Which we won't. They can't lift the stay-at-home orders or the virus outbreaks return. Unless they lift the restrictions only for those who have already had the virus. Problem with that is there's no testing so no way to know who those people are. I hope they get that anti-body test up and running, then at least the people who won't transmit can do something. If nothing else - help out.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 2, 2020 18:31:32 GMT -5
They can't lift the stay-at-home orders or the virus outbreaks return. Unless they lift the restrictions only for those who have already had the virus. Problem with that is there's no testing so no way to know who those people are. I hope they get that anti-body test up and running, then at least the people who won't transmit can do something. If nothing else - help out. At the presidents conf on TV today it was announced the first test for antibodies was approved today!! Yay! Now to get things going - mass testing with certificates for those who have antibodies- already had COVID 19 and recovered Mass testing will still be a challenge- thousands of people and multiple sites. But unlike testing for actual disease, people taking samples may not need the extensive protection like masks gloves gowns that need to be changed for every person tested Really surprised that CNN not putting these press conf on TV. Besides learning about the newly approved antibody test also heard how many masks gowns gloves etc are going to NY hospitals and police department
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 2, 2020 18:34:36 GMT -5
I hope they get that anti-body test up and running, then at least the people who won't transmit can do something. If nothing else - help out. At the presidents conf on TV today it was announced the first test for antibodies was approved today!! Yay! Now to get things going - mass testing with certificates for those who have antibodies- already had COVID 19 and recovered Mass testing will still be a challenge- thousands of people and multiple sites. But unlike testing for actual disease, people taking samples may not need the extensive protection like masks gloves gowns that need to be changed for every person testedBut they will, as they are drawing blood.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 2, 2020 18:36:44 GMT -5
At the presidents conf on TV today it was announced the first test for antibodies was approved today!! Yay! Now to get things going - mass testing with certificates for those who have antibodies- already had COVID 19 and recovered Mass testing will still be a challenge- thousands of people and multiple sites. But unlike testing for actual disease, people taking samples may not need the extensive protection like masks gloves gowns that need to be changed for every person testedBut they will, as they are drawing blood. Yes gloves
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 2, 2020 18:46:10 GMT -5
But they will, as they are drawing blood. Yes gloves They still need gloves, masks and gowns, same as for testing for the virus. No symptoms equals either recovered, never had the disease and being a carrier, so the precautions cannot be relaxed between blood draws as you simply do not know. Even before this mess, the phlebotomist wore gloves and mask.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 2, 2020 19:06:26 GMT -5
Man arrested by FBI agents in a car repair shop in NJ. He was hoarding and selling 130000 surgical N95 masks almost 600000 pairs of gloves. Found by tip-off from doctor who was offered 1000 masks for $12000. Masks and gloves sent to hospitals in NJ and NY. Announced at the president ‘s press today and now on Reuters.com
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 2, 2020 20:58:56 GMT -5
Man arrested by FBI agents in a car repair shop in NJ. He was hoarding and selling 130000 surgical N95 masks almost 600000 pairs of gloves. Found by tip-off from doctor who was offered 1000 masks for $12000. Masks and gloves sent to hospitals in NJ and NY. Announced at the president ‘s press today and now on Reuters.com Capitalism
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 6, 2020 8:02:50 GMT -5
I just checked the link to the model someone else had posted here, I think...
First wave is supposed to be done by early June, assuming social distancing through May. 97% of the population is still susceptible. I'm assuming there's going to be a second wave because things will be opened up too soon/too fast.
In my state, the lawmakers want the governor to allow folks to attend Easter religious services...which, in my state is about 5 days before the peak is supposed to hit.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 6, 2020 8:19:54 GMT -5
I'm glad my church stopped doing masses even before the shutdown. Of course, the congregation skews old, and they can't afford to lose too many. It seemed to be dying off even before this.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 6, 2020 10:42:00 GMT -5
I just checked the link to the model someone else had posted here, I think...
First wave is supposed to be done by early June, assuming social distancing through May. 97% of the population is still susceptible. I'm assuming there's going to be a second wave because things will be opened up too soon/too fast.
In my state, the lawmakers want the governor to allow folks to attend Easter religious services...which, in my state is about 5 days before the peak is supposed to hit.
yup
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Ava
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Post by Ava on Apr 6, 2020 11:02:09 GMT -5
Connecticut is supposed to have no cases by July. My guess is that we go back to some sort of normal by mis August. By then we should have schools and offices open plus some restaurants malls, probably with reduced hours.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 6, 2020 11:02:57 GMT -5
I'm glad my church stopped doing masses even before the shutdown. Of course, the congregation skews old, and they can't afford to lose too many. It seemed to be dying off even before this. My church stopped doing masses a while ago, too. All my lawmakers are doing is using this as an opportunity to pander to their base.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 11:08:56 GMT -5
Thing is, there is no "going back to normal" unless you have effective treatment, a vaccine, or have had the virus and immunity prevents you from being reinfected (something that's not even known at this point if it's possible).
The minute people are allowed to roam free again, the next wave of the pandemic starts.
I don't understand why the US press refuses to explain that to people and the POtuS keeps telling people the opposite.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 6, 2020 11:53:44 GMT -5
The vaccine will come. And so will the anti-body testing.
I don't expect this to be an epiphany for the American people. 9-11 was the event that would forever change our soul and unite us as a people. And 12 months later, W was enemy #1, and the Republicans were making big plans to get at them damn liberals. We will go back to hating each other soon. We just have to hold out for a bit.
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Apr 6, 2020 13:32:50 GMT -5
Thing is, there is no "going back to normal" unless you have effective treatment, a vaccine, or have had the virus and immunity prevents you from being reinfected (something that's not even known at this point if it's possible). The minute people are allowed to roam free again, the next wave of the pandemic starts. I don't understand why the US press refuses to explain that to people and the POtuS keeps telling people the opposite. Trump and the stupid governors who have listened to him ignored all the flattening the curve news articles. They will also ignore every article about the dangers of re-opening things too soon. You can't fix stupid. Over time, the quick shut downs and more slow re-opening of businesses will lead to fewer deaths in the states which are practicing that. But I seriously doubt that the Trump supporters will acknowledge that. Just watch what happens when people in their state die. They won't blame the deaths on their friends and family who don't socially distance. No. They will blame the deaths on people traveling from other states to theirs. Or the poor people in their larger cities being careless. Anything but themselves.
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Apr 6, 2020 14:12:47 GMT -5
Thing is, there is no "going back to normal" unless you have effective treatment, a vaccine, or have had the virus and immunity prevents you from being reinfected (something that's not even known at this point if it's possible). The minute people are allowed to roam free again, the next wave of the pandemic starts. I don't understand why the US press refuses to explain that to people and the POtuS keeps telling people the opposite. Trump and the stupid governors who have listened to him ignored all the flattening the curve news articles. They will also ignore every article about the dangers of re-opening things too soon. You can't fix stupid. Over time, the quick shut downs and more slow re-opening of businesses will lead to fewer deaths in the states which are practicing that. But I seriously doubt that the Trump supporters will acknowledge that. Just watch what happens when people in their state die. They won't blame the deaths on their friends and family who don't socially distance. No. They will blame the deaths on people traveling from other states to theirs. Or the poor people in their larger cities being careless. Anything but themselves.
I expect that they will also claim that the shutdown didn't work and the Dem's wasted the taxpayers $$ with the stimulus programs.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 6, 2020 14:25:52 GMT -5
South Korea has dropped below 50 new cases a day... and just extended their social distancing another 2 weeks because they need to analyze the data, shore up, etc... before they say people should stop isolating...
I fear again that we will not be South Korea...
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 6, 2020 14:44:27 GMT -5
Michigan's new number is 17,221, which means it's taking over 5 days to double now. Don't get me wrong, we're still doing terribly, but it looks like the curve is flattening. The one site says it's projected to reach peak demand in 2 days.
My county's numbers are going up very slowly, but there were 2 more deaths over the weekend.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 6, 2020 15:11:36 GMT -5
Those of you following Michigan probably know that it has an earlier projected peak than most states. What you may not realize is that while the governor's order to close the schools came on March 16, many, many schools in Wayne and Oakland County had effectively closed two weeks earlier. The first week of March was Spring Break and many schools decided to remain closed after that break..
In other words, you might not to gauge the effectiveness of closing schools from how the Michigan's data comes in. And before you ask, I have no idea whether the de facto closing of many schools is baked into the model or not.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 6, 2020 16:28:52 GMT -5
Looking at Italy, ‘peak’ is likely to be a plateau. They are finally under 4000 new cases a day. Their death rate is lagging but that is to be expected.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 6, 2020 16:31:59 GMT -5
South Korea has dropped below 50 new cases a day... and just extended their social distancing another 2 weeks because they need to analyze the data, shore up, etc... before they say people should stop isolating... I fear again that we will not be South Korea... School hasn't announced yet whether or not they are closed for the year.. I've already told DH that the kids aren't going back to school. I will sacrifice all of my PTO to keep them at home. Particularly at the private school, there's a fair amount of spouses of teachers and parents that work in hospitals/medical facilities in our city. I just don't see the private school deep cleaning every surface every day after everyone goes home to keep the kids safe.
It takes the school 6-8ish weeks get a strep outbreak under control. I can't imagine how long the coronavirus would be there.
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