nidena
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Post by nidena on Mar 30, 2020 19:55:38 GMT -5
My brother and I were talking about this and his thoughts were that the flu is much worse and what I'm thinking, and what I tried to convey, is that this is new. We've never dealt with this before. Almost nobody has an immunity to it because we've never encountered it. This was a conversation had before he went to work at his construction site this morning. Me, I've been in my apartment for the past two weeks with the exception of four, maybe five trips to the grocery store for produce and other perishables. Can't eat the shelf-stable, pantry stuff.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Mar 30, 2020 20:01:54 GMT -5
We have about 3,500 cases and I live in a hot zone. If you're in groups of more than 2, you can get a fine of up to $6,000.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Mar 30, 2020 20:04:55 GMT -5
Meanwhile.... Police arrest Florida pastor for holding church services despite stay-at-home order Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne said he wouldn't close the doors of his Tampa, Florida, megachurch until the End Times begin. The police weren't willing to wait that long. On Monday, Florida sheriff's deputies arrested the evangelical pastor, who has continued to host large church services despite public orders urging residents to stay home to help contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/florida-pastor-arrested-river-church/index.html
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 30, 2020 21:07:35 GMT -5
Meanwhile.... Police arrest Florida pastor for holding church services despite stay-at-home order Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne said he wouldn't close the doors of his Tampa, Florida, megachurch until the End Times begin. The police weren't willing to wait that long. On Monday, Florida sheriff's deputies arrested the evangelical pastor, who has continued to host large church services despite public orders urging residents to stay home to help contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/florida-pastor-arrested-river-church/index.htmlReckless endangerment. Irresponsible asshole
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Mar 31, 2020 7:17:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure if anyone knows..but how long after the peak before we can return to normal...How long into the flattening of the curve? I actually think that we may be entering the curve flattening. But, with 18-20K new cases a day, as our steady state, we're not going to be opening businesses back up. It looks like china opened up when there maybe 500 to 1K new cases a day.
Do we think we'll move to opening up the when there's only 1-2K new cases a day? Maybe 5K?
The peak in our state is the end of April. I'm assuming business as usual will not begin May 1..But when? Or, do we not care because I think based on CDC estimates, there's 200K cases of the regular flu a day during flu season...and we all manage to keep everything open as usual?
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Mar 31, 2020 10:19:22 GMT -5
Moving article from BN - firsthand view from an anesthesiologist on the Covid floor At ECMC, shaken doc shares stories from Covid-19 floor
Note that this isn't in NYC, but in Erie county, about as far away from NYC as you can get and still be in NYS. Our local confirmed cases in that county were 443 as of last night, IIRC, with only 8 deaths so far. Confirmed cases in most other counties in the region are single digits with one exception at 51. Hospitals are not overwhelmed, yet, and they've reopened closed hospitals as Covid-19 only hospitals with plans for more reopening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 10:26:52 GMT -5
I'm not sure if anyone knows..but how long after the peak before we can return to normal...How long into the flattening of the curve? I actually think that we may be entering the curve flattening. But, with 18-20K new cases a day, as our steady state, we're not going to be opening businesses back up. It looks like china opened up when there maybe 500 to 1K new cases a day.
Do we think we'll move to opening up the when there's only 1-2K new cases a day? Maybe 5K?
The peak in our state is the end of April. I'm assuming business as usual will not begin May 1..But when? Or, do we not care because I think based on CDC estimates, there's 200K cases of the regular flu a day during flu season...and we all manage to keep everything open as usual?
The scientists say it's okay to return to normal once a vaccine is developed or people have had the virus and are immune to reinfection. If people "go back to normal" there will be more outbreaks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 10:28:04 GMT -5
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Mar 31, 2020 10:44:22 GMT -5
That article is sketchy, to me. The writer is obviously not a native English speaker, everything is phrased weirdly.
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 31, 2020 10:48:05 GMT -5
I'm not sure if anyone knows..but how long after the peak before we can return to normal...How long into the flattening of the curve? I actually think that we may be entering the curve flattening. But, with 18-20K new cases a day, as our steady state, we're not going to be opening businesses back up. It looks like china opened up when there maybe 500 to 1K new cases a day.
Do we think we'll move to opening up the when there's only 1-2K new cases a day? Maybe 5K?
The peak in our state is the end of April. I'm assuming business as usual will not begin May 1..But when? Or, do we not care because I think based on CDC estimates, there's 200K cases of the regular flu a day during flu season...and we all manage to keep everything open as usual?
www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 11:14:43 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Mar 31, 2020 11:48:20 GMT -5
Maybe 21M people lost their jobs and can't afford phone service? (I did not watch the video)
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Mar 31, 2020 11:53:43 GMT -5
Moving article from BN - firsthand view from an anesthesiologist on the Covid floor At ECMC, shaken doc shares stories from Covid-19 floor
Note that this isn't in NYC, but in Erie county, about as far away from NYC as you can get and still be in NYS. Our local confirmed cases in that county were 443 as of last night, IIRC, with only 8 deaths so far. Confirmed cases in most other counties in the region are single digits with one exception at 51. Hospitals are not overwhelmed, yet, and they've reopened closed hospitals as Covid-19 only hospitals with plans for more reopening. Older son is ortho surgeon in NJ, all elective surgery is cancelled but he still does emergency trauma surgery at hospital. His wife has recovered from cancer but her lungs were damaged from chemo, surgery and radiation treatment, so vulnerable. He showers before leaving hospital, comes home puts clothes in laundry and turns on, showers again. Then goes back and cleans off doorknobs, laundry controls, car door, steering wheel Praying he doesn’t need to help in ICU
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 12:48:34 GMT -5
It's horrible. I watched something yesterday where they mentioned a need to relax HIPAA and allow news reporters into hospitals so people can see what this really is and understand why social distancing matters.
The claim was that by not showing it, people will just see the usual outside of the hospital building and assume everything is going as usual inside.
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souldoubt
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Post by souldoubt on Mar 31, 2020 12:52:09 GMT -5
It's horrible. I watched something yesterday where they mentioned a need to relax HIPAA and allow news reporters into hospitals so people can see what this really is and understand why social distancing matters. The claim was that by not showing it, people will just see the usual outside of the hospital building and assume everything is going as usual inside. Let's have people who aren't presumably ill go into hospitals and stick cameras/mics in people's faces to prove how important social distancing is? Makes total sense...
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 31, 2020 14:08:56 GMT -5
21 million seems high but I don’t buy that China has had no additional deaths either. There are reports of a very large number of cremation urns being delivered to Wuhan and Chinese leadership is not known for being forthcoming with real information. (Please note I have nothing against private individuals or groups of Chinese citizens or descent...but the amount I trust their regime is measured in negative units.) Locally our state continues to increase in infections but the rate of increase hasn’t been jumping as much-about 200-250 new infections reported per day; data likely to be from 3-7 days ago. Death rate increasing but still not much over 1%. I really hope we start to see effects from social distancing soon. giramomma covid19 dot healthdata dot org has some projections as to when deaths/hospitalizations will peak and you can sort it to get a projection for your state. Maybe helpful?
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Mar 31, 2020 14:11:05 GMT -5
It's horrible. I watched something yesterday where they mentioned a need to relax HIPAA and allow news reporters into hospitals so people can see what this really is and understand why social distancing matters. The claim was that by not showing it, people will just see the usual outside of the hospital building and assume everything is going as usual inside. That is the worst idea I have ever heard. Not due to relaxing HIPAA, but of exposing people to known cases unnecessarily. Quite frankly, the last thing I would want while fighting to survive is a camera stuck in my face.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Mar 31, 2020 14:12:30 GMT -5
It's horrible. I watched something yesterday where they mentioned a need to relax HIPAA and allow news reporters into hospitals so people can see what this really is and understand why social distancing matters. The claim was that by not showing it, people will just see the usual outside of the hospital building and assume everything is going as usual inside. Those giant, refrigerated trucks being used as makeshift morgues aren't enough?
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Mar 31, 2020 14:14:05 GMT -5
21 million seems high but I don’t buy that China has had no additional deaths either. There are reports of a very large number of cremation urns being delivered to Wuhan and Chinese leadership is not known for being forthcoming with real information. (Please note I have nothing against private individuals or groups of Chinese citizens or descent...but the amount I trust their regime is measured in negative units.) Locally our state continues to increase in infections but the rate of increase hasn’t been jumping as much-about 200-250 new infections reported per day; data likely to be from 3-7 days ago. Death rate increasing but still not much over 1%. I really hope we start to see effects from social distancing soon. giramomma covid19 dot healthdata dot org has some projections as to when deaths/hospitalizations will peak and you can sort it to get a projection for your state. Maybe helpful? China’s numbers just don’t make sense. If you consider that their population is 3-4x that of the US, then their numbers should be considerably more. When you compare them to Italy, they make even less sense.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Mar 31, 2020 14:24:04 GMT -5
giramomma covid19 dot healthdata dot org has some projections as to when deaths/hospitalizations will peak and you can sort it to get a projection for your state. Maybe helpful? Yeah, our peak is at the end of April. But I would assume it won't be business as usual May 1.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 31, 2020 14:29:39 GMT -5
giramomma covid19 dot healthdata dot org has some projections as to when deaths/hospitalizations will peak and you can sort it to get a projection for your state. Maybe helpful? Yeah, our peak is at the end of April. But I would assume it won't be business as usual May 1. Probably not, but I’d be looking at the tailing out rather than the peak. (Or maybe I wouldn’t since I think our state was looking more like July
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 31, 2020 14:46:59 GMT -5
FWIW, I've been studying the state-specific peaks that the IHME modeling predicts and they are all really steep and steady until they suddenly flatten. It doesn't seem to matter much whether you are focusing on new cases or new deaths, they seem to behave similarly. Once you have gotten beyond the base of the curve, the daily numbers appear to stabilize, and remain steady (i.e. the same number of new cases and new deaths per day) until they suddenly change two or three days before the projected peak.
The drop before the peak could easily get lost in the noise. Conversely, the noise could mimic a drop-off before a peak and then disappoint us.
This is a very long-winded way of saying that it is unlikely that we will get much advance signaling of the peak approaching. What someone else here quoted is probably true. We'll know that we have hit the peak when it has passed us.
I haven't explained this terribly well, so you might want to take a look at some of the state-level projections that are out there. I wish that I could recommend a state that I believed to have adequate testing and early social distancing to watch, but I can't. It is ferociously difficult to get ahold of the numbers of tests that any state is performing and harder still to figure out what their testing parameters are.
If any of you know of a state that has dramatically increased its testing and might be churning out reasonably reliable data (this would probably require that the state in question to have somehow caught up to where it needed to be and then continued to double its testing capacity every two or three days), I would like to know about it and follow it.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 31, 2020 15:27:33 GMT -5
I doubt any state has adequate testing. My friend's DD who first showed symptoms on the 17th, is just finally breathing better today. She's had 2 tests, and no results yet. What a clusterf*ck.
So Mich total cases for today is 7615. 3 days ago it was 4650. 4 days ago it was 3657, so it seems to be stretching closer to 4 days now. I think we need to stretch it to 10 days, if I remember correctly. Good to know staying at home is having some effect. Otherwise, it feels so helpless.
From a conference call with my dept, boss said the peak in my state is projected for 9 days right now, but he thinks that is only for our side, and Detroit side would be a few weeks later than that.
My DH insists he has to go into the office tomorrow. I wish I could stick him in a bubble...
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 31, 2020 16:07:32 GMT -5
I doubt any state has adequate testing. My friend's DD who first showed symptoms on the 17th, is just finally breathing better today. She's had 2 tests, and no results yet. What a clusterf*ck. So Mich total cases for today is 7615. 3 days ago it was 4650. 4 days ago it was 3657, so it seems to be stretching closer to 4 days now. I think we need to stretch it to 10 days, if I remember correctly. Good to know staying at home is having some effect. Otherwise, it feels so helpless. From a conference call with my dept, boss said the peak in my state is projected for 9 days right now, but he thinks that is only for our side, and Detroit side would be a few weeks later than that. My DH insists he has to go into the office tomorrow. I wish I could stick him in a bubble... This is quite an interesting situation. You and I live in the same state, are looking at pretty much the same MDHHS data, scrambling to get the same scarce and hard-to-find news from our decimated press, and coming to almost completely opposite conclusions.
I'm of the opinion that outside of counties in the SW corner of the state, testing is completely collared by lack of available testing capacity and cannot be relied upon in any way. You're looking at the same set of data, noticing that hospitals in the SW corner of the state are near or beyond capacity and concluding that their testing capacity has been diverted to protecting the most vulnerable, and concluding that their numbers are similarly under-reported.
I'm not trying to insult your intelligence or disparage your boss' insight, I'm pretty much flying blind and coming to a completely different conclusion. I simply have no idea how many people are getting tested, where, and for what reasons. Damn, I miss the days when reading a newspaper would give me the answers to these questions.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 31, 2020 16:22:44 GMT -5
I doubt any state has adequate testing. My friend's DD who first showed symptoms on the 17th, is just finally breathing better today. She's had 2 tests, and no results yet. What a clusterf*ck. So Mich total cases for today is 7615. 3 days ago it was 4650. 4 days ago it was 3657, so it seems to be stretching closer to 4 days now. I think we need to stretch it to 10 days, if I remember correctly. Good to know staying at home is having some effect. Otherwise, it feels so helpless. From a conference call with my dept, boss said the peak in my state is projected for 9 days right now, but he thinks that is only for our side, and Detroit side would be a few weeks later than that. My DH insists he has to go into the office tomorrow. I wish I could stick him in a bubble... This is quite an interesting situation. You and I live in the same state, are looking at pretty much the same MDHHS data, scrambling to get the same scarce and hard-to-find news from our decimated press, and coming to almost completely opposite conclusions.
I'm of the opinion that outside of counties in the SW corner of the state, testing is completely collared by lack of available testing capacity and cannot be relied upon in any way. You're looking at the same set of data, noticing that hospitals in the SW corner of the state are near or beyond capacity and concluding that their testing capacity has been diverted to protecting the most vulnerable, and concluding that their numbers are similarly under-reported.
I'm not trying to insult your intelligence or disparage your boss' insight, I'm pretty much flying blind and coming to a completely different conclusion. I simply have no idea how many people are getting tested, where, and for what reasons. Damn, I miss the days when reading a newspaper would give me the answers to these questions.
Again, if Ed/hospital admissions for pneumonia/flu-like illnesses/respiratory failure are going up in your area, something is going on as flu should be winding down about now. Gross numbers nationwide are helpful, but numbers in any area are dependent on testing. You can’t find what you don’t look for, and if there are reasons not to look, that will skew the numbers. You can’t hide people in the ED or hospital though, and if you get an indication that they are busy, it’s in your area. We are still waiting for a surge, although it seems to be all around us. So we hold our breath
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 31, 2020 16:23:18 GMT -5
I doubt any state has adequate testing. My friend's DD who first showed symptoms on the 17th, is just finally breathing better today. She's had 2 tests, and no results yet. What a clusterf*ck. So Mich total cases for today is 7615. 3 days ago it was 4650. 4 days ago it was 3657, so it seems to be stretching closer to 4 days now. I think we need to stretch it to 10 days, if I remember correctly. Good to know staying at home is having some effect. Otherwise, it feels so helpless. From a conference call with my dept, boss said the peak in my state is projected for 9 days right now, but he thinks that is only for our side, and Detroit side would be a few weeks later than that. My DH insists he has to go into the office tomorrow. I wish I could stick him in a bubble... This is quite an interesting situation. You and I live in the same state, are looking at pretty much the same MDHHS data, scrambling to get the same scarce and hard-to-find news from our decimated press, and coming to almost completely opposite conclusions.
I'm of the opinion that outside of counties in the SW corner of the state, testing is completely collared by lack of available testing capacity and cannot be relied upon in any way. You're looking at the same set of data, noticing that hospitals in the SW corner of the state are near or beyond capacity and concluding that their testing capacity has been diverted to protecting the most vulnerable, and concluding that their numbers are similarly under-reported.
I'm not trying to insult your intelligence or disparage your boss' insight, I'm pretty much flying blind and coming to a completely different conclusion. I simply have no idea how many people are getting tested, where, and for what reasons. Damn, I miss the days when reading a newspaper would give me the answers to these questions.
I have no idea if my boss is correct, but we are (local) government-run utility, so he may be privy to additional information. I have a friend who is an RN at a local hospital. I learned of a couple local cases about a week before they hit the official news. She would let us know if the local hospitals were getting slammed. Her daughter (who has been sick) lives in Grand Rapids, which is heating up with cases now. It all seems consistent with the earlier peaking here than on the East side. It could be wrong, because we have an area of poor that could possibly get hit hard, like Detroit. Grand Rapids also has a higher population, so it could still get bad there. Spectrum did say they're starting to run out of room. I simply don't believe there is adequate testing anywhere. I could be wrong, and it's better on the East side. I don't know.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 31, 2020 16:27:47 GMT -5
FWIW, I just did some quick math comparing the uptick in new cases to the increase in the number of tests reported. The math is shocking, and indicative of severe under-testing.
I will have to re-evaluate in light of this scant data. The unde-rtesting may be on the eastern half of the state instead of the western, I'll have to think about this some more and investigate a bit more.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Mar 31, 2020 17:51:44 GMT -5
I think you have to take figures coming out of China with a pinch of salt As for testing, there is a world shortage of the chemicals needed....... so nobody is doing enough. We in the UK don't really know who has had it (since some people don't have a lot of symptoms)..... We are going to start testing for antbodies but there is doubt as to how reliable these tests are. Approaching a plateau though.....So stay in, stay safe and it too will pass.....we will all just have to weather the storm.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Mar 31, 2020 18:57:52 GMT -5
This is quite an interesting situation. You and I live in the same state, are looking at pretty much the same MDHHS data, scrambling to get the same scarce and hard-to-find news from our decimated press, and coming to almost completely opposite conclusions.
I'm of the opinion that outside of counties in the SW corner of the state, testing is completely collared by lack of available testing capacity and cannot be relied upon in any way. You're looking at the same set of data, noticing that hospitals in the SW corner of the state are near or beyond capacity and concluding that their testing capacity has been diverted to protecting the most vulnerable, and concluding that their numbers are similarly under-reported.
I'm not trying to insult your intelligence or disparage your boss' insight, I'm pretty much flying blind and coming to a completely different conclusion. I simply have no idea how many people are getting tested, where, and for what reasons. Damn, I miss the days when reading a newspaper would give me the answers to these questions.
I have no idea if my boss is correct, but we are (local) government-run utility, so he may be privy to additional information. I have a friend who is an RN at a local hospital. I learned of a couple local cases about a week before they hit the official news. She would let us know if the local hospitals were getting slammed. Her daughter (who has been sick) lives in Grand Rapids, which is heating up with cases now. It all seems consistent with the earlier peaking here than on the East side. It could be wrong, because we have an area of poor that could possibly get hit hard, like Detroit. Grand Rapids also has a higher population, so it could still get bad there. Spectrum did say they're starting to run out of room. I simply don't believe there is adequate testing anywhere. I could be wrong, and it's better on the East side. I don't know. Exactly, tests aren’t needed to detect that hospital admissions, icu ventilation and deaths are rising.
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CCL
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Post by CCL on Mar 31, 2020 19:04:54 GMT -5
That article is sketchy, to me. The writer is obviously not a native English speaker, everything is phrased weirdly. That was hard to read! I only got thru the first paragraph and gave up.
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