pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 27, 2020 16:07:12 GMT -5
It's comforting to hear that we might get a better idea of where the hot spots are in a few weeks but isn't that form of data analysis dependent on people visiting medical facilities as they normally would? I don't think we're doing that now. I'm not sure where I could even be seen if I had shortness of breath now and I'd be staying away for as long as possible for the sake of other people. They also like look at percentage of all visit. So, for example, visits for upper respiratory infection related codes account for 2.5% of all visits, and suddenly it 4%, the following week its 6.4%, you know something is going on. Since volume is down for all kinds of visits, there will be less noise, so a rapid spike becomes obvious. With what is happening in hotspots, this doesn’t matter, but you could be able to predict where it may be brewing. Especially since it has a 2 week incubation period
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Mar 27, 2020 17:13:06 GMT -5
My youngest nephew is presumed to have COVID-19. The diagnosis was over the phone and he doesn't qualify for a test.
Where will he show up in the statistics? I'm presuming nowhere.
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Mar 27, 2020 21:41:34 GMT -5
Apparently there's now 221 cases in Erie County. From I thought around 150 earlier today. Ramping up fast. ETA: just checked - 75 new confirmed TODAY. Three more died TODAY (total 5 deaths now). Hospitalized Tuesday: 9. Hospitalized TODAY: 31. Today's update: "Another Erie County resident dies from Covid-19, bringing to 7 the number of deaths in the region More than 362 Western New Yorkers have tested positive for Covid-19, as hospitalizations begin to increase. And another Erie County resident died, a woman in her 40s, bringing to seven the number of deaths in the region. The number of Erie County coronavirus patients in intensive care nearly tripled to 20." "There were 89 NEW positive cases in total today," County Executive Mark Poloncarz tweeted Friday night." Our total positives cases is now 310, though in good news, 27 have recovered."
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 28, 2020 14:45:40 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure out today's actual number for my state. The update seems to come later and later every day, but a chart that the news site has linked to shows 4.7k, and 111 deaths. I've been tracking my state's numbers from the beginning and it still appears to be doubling at least every 3 days. Social distancing started a couple weeks ago already, so I was hoping we'd start to see a slow down from that place.
My DH mentioned trying shipt, but I wonder if we should save that capacity for the oldsters. I wonder if the oldsters are using it? Maybe I need to venture back onto nextdoor to see what's being said there.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 28, 2020 14:59:12 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure out today's actual number for my state. The update seems to come later and later every day, but a chart that the news site has linked to shows 4.7k, and 111 deaths. I've been tracking my state's numbers from the beginning and it still appears to be doubling at least every 3 days. Social distancing started a couple weeks ago already, so I was hoping we'd start to see a slow down from that place. My DH mentioned trying shipt, but I wonder if we should save that capacity for the oldsters. I wonder if the oldsters are using it? Maybe I need to venture back onto nextdoor to see what's being said there. shipt isnt available in my area.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Mar 28, 2020 15:53:45 GMT -5
No shipt here either.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 28, 2020 16:01:28 GMT -5
It's been available here for a couple years now. We've never shopped for bigger chunks of time before, so we've never really considered it. Even with a weekend stock up, my DH still stopped to get something at least every other day.
It's weird realizing how much we go through. My DH and I don't drink any milk, but my 2 young boys went through nearly 3 gallons in a week, one small glass at a time. Of course, before they were at school/activities much of the time, so weren't available to raid the fridge constantly. I felt like we were overstocked last week, and now I'm wondering where so much went.
So, now I got the number for my state--4650. Still more than double of 3 days ago. It's still mostly on the other side of the state from me, but still very troubling. From FB, I saw my friend's neice is a nurse at Beaumont hospital, one of the epicenters. At least the neice is young/healthy.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Mar 28, 2020 16:03:01 GMT -5
Just read that on orders of Rhode Island governor state police are stopping cars with NY license plates , telling them to quarantine for 14 days and noting their address. Also plans to go to houses to find others who may be from NY. Woah, this is starting to get like Wuhan where police dragged people out of houses if they had symptoms or even lived with someone who was sick. Also nailed doors shut to keep people inside,
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 28, 2020 16:06:38 GMT -5
The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his lifeThe president was aware of the danger from the coronavirus – but a lack of leadership has created an emergency of epic proportions When the definitive history of the coronavirus pandemic is written, the date 20 January 2020 is certain to feature prominently. It was on that day that a 35-year-old man in Washington state, recently returned from visiting family in Wuhan in China, became the first person in the US to be diagnosed with the virus. On the very same day, 5,000 miles away in Asia, the first confirmed case of Covid-19 was reported in South Korea. The confluence was striking, but there the similarities ended. In the two months since that fateful day, the responses to coronavirus displayed by the US and South Korea have been polar opposites. One country acted swiftly and aggressively to detect and isolate the virus, and by doing so has largely contained the crisis. The other country dithered and procrastinated, became mired in chaos and confusion, was distracted by the individual whims of its leader, and is now confronted by a health emergency of daunting proportions. Within a week of its first confirmed case, South Korea’s disease control agency had summoned 20 private companies to the medical equivalent of a war-planning summit and told them to develop a test for the virus at lightning speed. A week after that, the first diagnostic test was approved and went into battle, identifying infected individuals who could then be quarantined to halt the advance of the disease. Some 357,896 tests later, the country has more or less won the coronavirus war. On Friday only 91 new cases were reported in a country of more than 50 million. The US response tells a different story. Two days after the first diagnosis in Washington state, Donald Trump went on air on CNBC and bragged: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming from China. It’s going to be just fine.” Complete article here: The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life
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adela76
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Post by adela76 on Mar 28, 2020 17:51:04 GMT -5
This is an interesting (or frightening) tool with projections of the peak and total # of deaths by state. Many states are predicted to peak in mid-April, but some have peaks predicted in May. The numbers for NY are particularly scary. covid19.healthdata.org/
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mollyc
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Post by mollyc on Mar 28, 2020 18:12:45 GMT -5
BC isn't releasing any projections. Dr Henry actually pointed out in today's presser that yesterday she had presented models, not projections. She also pointed out that the models were based on data from what happened in 3 different countries and how that would work in BC.
Dr Henry's stance is that you can't know where the peak is until after the fact.
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adela76
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Post by adela76 on Mar 28, 2020 19:06:09 GMT -5
BC isn't releasing any projections. Dr Henry actually pointed out in today's presser that yesterday she had presented models, not projections. She also pointed out that the models were based on data from what happened in 3 different countries and how that would work in BC. Dr Henry's stance is that you can't know where the peak is until after the fact. "All models are wrong, but some are useful." --George Box, statistician
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 28, 2020 19:28:58 GMT -5
BC isn't releasing any projections. Dr Henry actually pointed out in today's presser that yesterday she had presented models, not projections. She also pointed out that the models were based on data from what happened in 3 different countries and how that would work in BC. Dr Henry's stance is that you can't know where the peak is until after the fact. Maybe do, but without some sort of projections, how do you decide what to do. You could mage decisions like trump, with no clear plan in place
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 29, 2020 15:46:50 GMT -5
Today's number in Michigan may indicate a slowdown. I'm hoping it's a trend, and not just a blip because of the weekend, or whatever.
A Western Michigan University student died. He was to graduate with an engineering degree this spring. So sad.😢
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 29, 2020 16:07:44 GMT -5
Today's number in Michigan may indicate a slowdown. I'm hoping it's a trend, and not just a blip because of the weekend, or whatever. A Western Michigan University student died. He was to graduate with an engineering degree this spring. So sad.😢 Are you looking at 5486 cases/132 deaths? That's what I'm getting from the MHHS page that they've migrated their stats to. The increase in new cases is not as bad as yesterday's, but it is a weekend number and I refuse to give it too much meaning. The change in how and when the state reports new cases and new deaths seems to be mucking up the data that several other news organizations are relying on and disseminating. That big blank in the charts that NPR is reporting on bugs the **** out of me.
The county-level data also seems a bit off. A few days ago, I saw something that reported three cases in my parents' county, which shocked me because the county may not contain a single hospital and it shares a public health department with two other counties in the area. According to the MHHS data that I saw today, no cases are reported in that county.
On the other hand, it is nice to see some sort of data on how much testing is going on. Anything counts as an improvement when no info was available before. On the other hand, presenting only cumulative data may be disguising some pretty poor daily numbers.
edited to include the link to where my great state is stashing data now.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 29, 2020 16:15:24 GMT -5
Today's number in Michigan may indicate a slowdown. I'm hoping it's a trend, and not just a blip because of the weekend, or whatever. A Western Michigan University student died. He was to graduate with an engineering degree this spring. So sad.😢 Are you looking at 5486 cases/132 deaths? That's what I'm getting from MHHS page that they've migrated their stats to. The increase in new cases is not as bad as yesterday's, but it is a weekend number and I refuse to give it too much meaning.
The change in how and when the state reports new cases and new deaths seems to be mucking up the data that several other news organizations are relying on and disseminating. That big blank in the charts that NPR is reporting on bugs the **** out of me.
The county-level data also seems a bit off. A few days ago, I saw something that reported three cases in my parents' county, which shocked me because the county may not contain a single hospital and it shares a public health department with two other counties in the area. According to the MHHS data that I saw today, no cases are reported in that county.
On the other hand, it is nice to see some sort of data on how much testing is going on. Anything counts as an improvement when no info was available before. On the other hand, presenting only cumulative data may be disguising some pretty poor daily numbers.
I just saw over 15000 new infections today. I suspect results will trickle in today because it is a weekend. With the number today, we will be over 200000, by next weekend easily. Hospital admissions for respiratory illness is a good surrogate guide. If they are increasing, you have a problem
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mollyc
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Post by mollyc on Mar 29, 2020 16:24:57 GMT -5
BC isn't releasing any projections. Dr Henry actually pointed out in today's presser that yesterday she had presented models, not projections. She also pointed out that the models were based on data from what happened in 3 different countries and how that would work in BC. Dr Henry's stance is that you can't know where the peak is until after the fact. Maybe do, but without some sort of projections, how do you decide what to do. You could mage decisions like trump, with no clear plan in place Please do not assume our governments on all levels are the shit show that is your federal govt. I didn't say the Province wasn't analyzing the data and using it to make decisions. I said they weren't releasing projections, only releasing models built on probabilities if BC follows the path of the 3 countries used to build the models. A lot of what all provincial and federal govts know and are doing can be found on their websites. Considering how many people are saying things like "renters will get $500 towards their rent" and "everyone not working will get $2,000/month" when the actual programs say otherwise and currently have caveats, I can see why the govts don't want to guess timing of peaks. As sure as shooting, a bunch of people will take that as gospel and fuck up planking the curve for the rest of us. All of the health officers across the country are trying to maintain the fine line of not insulting the intelligence of their audience while not confusing or encouraging the more shallow of thought.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 29, 2020 16:25:35 GMT -5
There was a delay in reporting the 3/28 numbers. Almost a thousand new cases that should have been reported that day, did not get attributed to that day. Today's numbers were a slight decrease from the prior day, 830ish . You may have multiplied the number of new cases by 10. A 1500 increase in the last two days, erroneously clumped together due to delayed reporting, makes sense.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 29, 2020 16:36:40 GMT -5
Today's number in Michigan may indicate a slowdown. I'm hoping it's a trend, and not just a blip because of the weekend, or whatever. A Western Michigan University student died. He was to graduate with an engineering degree this spring. So sad.😢 Are you looking at 5486 cases/132 deaths? That's what I'm getting from MHHS page that they've migrated their stats to. The increase in new cases is not as bad as yesterday's, but it is a weekend number and I refuse to give it too much meaning.
The change in how and when the state reports new cases and new deaths seems to be mucking up the data that several other news organizations are relying on and disseminating. That big blank in the charts that NPR is reporting on bugs the **** out of me.
The county-level data also seems a bit off. A few days ago, I saw something that reported three cases in my parents' county, which shocked me because the county may not contain a single hospital and it shares a public health department with two other counties in the area. According to the MHHS data that I saw today, no cases are reported in that county.
On the other hand, it is nice to see some sort of data on how much testing is going on. Anything counts as an improvement when no info was available before. On the other hand, presenting only cumulative data may be disguising some pretty poor daily numbers.
I'm just looking at total number of cases in Michigan because that is where I live. Total cases were doubling every 2 days, now it's less than 3. It could just be noise. Mlive reports the county the person reports as their residence, so they could be in hospital elsewhere. Their charts link o a state of Mich site. I know the data is not great, but I've been tracking what I can get, to see if I could get a feel for it. I don't think there's enough data at the county-level to really look at trends at this point. I also think the various slow-down efforts in different states makes looking at a total US number not very useful. www.mlive.com/news/2020/03/michigan-coronavirus-cases-soar-past-5000-21-new-deaths-reported.html
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jelloshots4all
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Post by jelloshots4all on Mar 29, 2020 18:08:43 GMT -5
Quarantined another 30 days cuz the dipsh!t finally listened to medical experts.
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Mar 29, 2020 18:45:30 GMT -5
Quarantined another 30 days cuz the dipsh!t finally listened to medical experts. Trump can issue guidelines. It's the governors who are issuing stay at home orders.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 29, 2020 18:50:38 GMT -5
Quarantined another 30 days cuz the dipsh!t finally listened to medical experts. Trump can issue guidelines. It's the governors who are issuing stay at home orders. I don't recall Trump issuing any "stay at home orders"...
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 29, 2020 19:01:48 GMT -5
Quarantined another 30 days cuz the dipsh!t finally listened to medical experts. It's all about TV ratings.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Mar 29, 2020 20:01:53 GMT -5
Quarantined another 30 days cuz the dipsh!t finally listened to medical experts. Trump can issue guidelines. It's the governors who are issuing stay at home orders. The governors are actually the ones who can issue orders. Maybe now my GOP governor will finally do the right thing and issue a stay at home order. Today she says our problem is because of spring break kids. She had no data to back that up when questioned.
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lurkyloo
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Post by lurkyloo on Mar 29, 2020 20:54:00 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure out today's actual number for my state. The update seems to come later and later every day, but a chart that the news site has linked to shows 4.7k, and 111 deaths. I've been tracking my state's numbers from the beginning and it still appears to be doubling at least every 3 days. Social distancing started a couple weeks ago already, so I was hoping we'd start to see a slow down from that place. My DH mentioned trying shipt, but I wonder if we should save that capacity for the oldsters. I wonder if the oldsters are using it? Maybe I need to venture back onto nextdoor to see what's being said there. shipt isnt available in my area. Oops, I originally responded to this in the wrong thread! Shipt is also not available in my dads area but instacart was. It might be worth looking at the website for whatever local stores you have to see what they do for delivery. The instacart guy said dad was really happy to see the shrimp I ordered for him
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 30, 2020 15:35:46 GMT -5
6498 cases in Mich now. 3 days ago was 3657. It appears the shut downs and social distancing policies are starting to work. Starting to.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Mar 30, 2020 15:46:49 GMT -5
I am not sure what to make of Iowa and Nebraska's numbers. According to the local news we only have 3 confirmed cases in our county.
Douglas County which is where is located Omaha has 75. That has me concerned because many of us go back and forth for work. It would be nice to see break down by city.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 30, 2020 16:16:46 GMT -5
6498 cases in Mich now. 3 days ago was 3657. It appears the shut downs and social distancing policies are starting to work. Starting to. Can you explain the reasons why you see social distancing working? I'm not trying to snark, just honestly gobsmacked by our first day of 1000 new cases and a disturbing number of new deaths. I see that the number of new cases is not increasing quite as dramatically as before, but fear that the apparent decrease in the rate at which new cases are increasing may be due to capacity restraints on testing.
Are you seeing something that I am not seeing? Honestly, I want to hope.
FWIW, do you have any info on how long Sparrow has been testing? I live in Ingham and our numbers took a big leap yesterday today.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 30, 2020 18:41:47 GMT -5
6498 cases in Mich now. 3 days ago was 3657. It appears the shut downs and social distancing policies are starting to work. Starting to. Can you explain the reasons why you see social distancing working? I'm not trying to snark, just honestly gobsmacked by our first day of 1000 new cases and a disturbing number of new deaths. I see that the number of new cases is not increasing quite as dramatically as before, but fear that the apparent decrease in the rate at which new cases are increasing may be due to capacity restraints on testing.
Are you seeing something that I am not seeing? Honestly, I want to hope.
FWIW, do you have any info on how long Sparrow has been testing? I live in Ingham and our numbers took a big leap yesterday today.
I'm sorry, I don't know how long Sparrow has been testing. I only know information is coming out much slower than reality on the ground. There was a spike early on due to more testing being approved. Turn around times for tests have also been horrible, but supposed to be speeding way up. Maybe some have? I read this a couple weeks ago: medium.com/@jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993There was another article somewhere that explained the growth under different social distancing scenarios, but it also used the doubling every 3 days number with no social distancing, but also examined # of days for doubling with lockdowns, etc. Anyway, that's why I've been looking at the rate of doubling. It seems like 3 days is the magic number for this virus. Oh, it looks like this might be one of them (but I've seen others from other sources): medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99caTheir numbers are old now, but I guess you can evaluate how accurate they were (or not, I have not checked). All I've been evaluating is this exponential 3 day growth. It was closer to 2 days for a while. Now it's trending just so slightly longer than 3. I'm looking for shreds of hope here. If you read the first article, it states there is an estimate of 50 unknown cases for each known case, and something like 800 unknown cases for each death. My county went from 3 to 7 to 18 within a few days, too. I'm not surprised by it, but worried. I work in a different county with even more cases, and my husband works in yet another county with more cases than that. That's why I pled the case to him for both of us to WFH. That's a lot of potential spread just from our little family.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Mar 30, 2020 19:27:36 GMT -5
I am not sure what to make of Iowa and Nebraska's numbers. According to the local news we only have 3 confirmed cases in our county. Douglas County which is where is located Omaha has 75. That has me concerned because many of us go back and forth for work. It would be nice to see break down by city. All of the Iowa press conferences I have seen say they can't break it down by city due to HIPPA. My county has 16 cases and people keep asking what cities and they won't say. The one that was named in Iowa today was the nursing home in Cedar Rapids.
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