Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 18, 2020 23:41:11 GMT -5
I went on ssa.gov because I wanted to see if the 2019 income was recorded. it was not. but my estimated benefit amount increased from about 50-100 for each payout category.
For the 2019 income - the line is in the table but it lists "not yet recorded" rather than a number. So - why did the benefit amounts increase if they didn't have the 2019 salary figures? I had gotten my 2019 statement in April with the lower amounts with the last income line from 2018.
Any ideas? is the benefit amount including 2019 income - but not listing it in the table?
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Jan 19, 2020 1:03:02 GMT -5
I'm not sure but we got a COLA this time due to inflation. So maybe they figured that in. Mine was decent until my insurance premiums went up another $40.
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tractor
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Post by tractor on Jan 19, 2020 8:20:19 GMT -5
How many years have you been paying into it. The reason I ask is the benefits are based on 35? Years of earning, and in my case, the estimates currently include money I made while in high school ($5-6,000/year). As I continue to earn “adult” wages, the higher numbers replace those from my early years, increasing the monthly estimates. Hopefully by the time I retire, all those early earning years will not be part of the equation.
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Blonde Granny
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Post by Blonde Granny on Jan 19, 2020 8:24:13 GMT -5
I COLA increase for SS and other federal payments such as VA disability increased by 1.6%
Hardly worth getting excited over, but I'll take it, it's better than nothing.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Jan 19, 2020 8:52:12 GMT -5
is the benefit amount including 2019 income - but not listing it in the table?
Social Security has not received the information for your 2019 income.
W-2s etc. are not due to you until January 31 and to SS by the end of February, I believe.
Any self employment income doesn't get reported until tax returns are filed.
I don't know when SS adds the 2019 income but it's impossible for 2019 income to show up in January of 2020 when they do not have the information.
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alabamagal
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Post by alabamagal on Jan 19, 2020 9:33:28 GMT -5
I’m thinking your 2019 income is listed, but not recorded, meaning it is not official. SS has the number but it is not official. They are likely using that number for the new estimate.
Since your income has recently gone up quite a lot, each year you add high earnings your estimated benefit should go up if you pay increases are greater than what they estimate. They might only estimate that your pay will stay the same.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:07:53 GMT -5
I guess I wasn't clear - I am still working - not collecting.
I am at around the 35 year mark - but as the payments are based on "earning the same as last year until age" 65 - 62- 70....I wouldn't think that would be an issue.
I last pulled the report in April - no new info to SS - but projected payments are up. It seems to be calculated on the same array of numbers.
If anyone else keeps tabs on this, would be interested if they checked to compare to earlier this year.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:11:56 GMT -5
Just checked - the earning record is the same. As is total money paid into it from me and employers.
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Sharon
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Post by Sharon on Jan 19, 2020 11:12:23 GMT -5
My projected SS payment went way up when the very low income (working summers in high school) years dropped out of the top 35 year calculation.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:14:06 GMT -5
is the benefit amount including 2019 income - but not listing it in the table? Social Security has not received the information for your 2019 income. W-2s etc. are not due to you until January 31 and to SS by the end of February, I believe. Any self employment income doesn't get reported until tax returns are filed. I don't know when SS adds the 2019 income but it's impossible for 2019 income to show up in January of 2020 when they do not have the information. Thanks - this is good info. I guess I have to wait till March for the the update. And yes - I am excited to see how my shiny new income affects my SS income. Need some additional motivators to stay in the game. Guess that is a sign of getting old.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jan 19, 2020 11:18:17 GMT -5
Is it possible that the projection that you received in April used 2017 income in the 2018 spot and this projection uses 2018 income in the 2019 spot? That's poorly explained, but easy to check. Are the last two income numbers of your April report the same?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:19:57 GMT -5
My projected SS payment went way up when the very low income (working summers in high school) years dropped out of the top 35 year calculation. Was your income continuing to climb though? So each year your "make the same amount every year hereafter" was increased? Or is their algorithm for projected payments not that sophisticated? It would be really great if that was the case - because I think I am (just counted! I have exactly) 35 years of income. And I have about 10 years (ok - nerdalert is going to count....) I have 12 years of income < 10k. So if each year of income going forward is going to knock out one of those - and it has not already been cooked into the formula - it is going to be fantastic for me.......
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:20:22 GMT -5
Is it possible that the projection that you received in April used 2017 income in the 2018 spot and this projection uses 2018 income in the 2019 spot? That's poorly explained, but easy to check. Are the last two income numbers of your April report the same? no - very different!
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:23:53 GMT -5
One more point - thanks all for staying with me here - I did a total of about 8 years TA/RA at the University, 4 years in the 90's - and 4 years in the teens - then some as adjunct prof recently - I don't think that shows up on soc sec at all.
Could they have refigured how those years/money is calculated?
ETA - but wouldn't they notify, adjust historical earnings if that was the case?
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jan 19, 2020 11:30:07 GMT -5
Sorry, I shouldn't have said "report" I should have said "projection". Does the April paper report that you are looking at include the numbers used in the projection?
But scratch that, I have a better idea. Perhaps the difference in projection is due to a change in equalization numbers factors.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jan 19, 2020 11:44:27 GMT -5
One more point - thanks all for staying with me here - I did a total of about 8 years TA/RA at the University, 4 years in the 90's - and 4 years in the teens - then some as adjunct prof recently - I don't think that shows up on soc sec at all. Could they have refigured how those years/money is calculated? ETA - but wouldn't they notify, adjust historical earnings if that was the case? Are you sure that social security was withheld from those wages. Things changed mightily some time around 1986 or a few years later. I don't have earnings records from my on-campus job in 1987 either.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Jan 19, 2020 11:49:32 GMT -5
is the benefit amount including 2019 income - but not listing it in the table? Social Security has not received the information for your 2019 income. W-2s etc. are not due to you until January 31 and to SS by the end of February, I believe. Any self employment income doesn't get reported until tax returns are filed. I don't know when SS adds the 2019 income but it's impossible for 2019 income to show up in January of 2020 when they do not have the information. Thanks - this is good info. I guess I have to wait till March for the the update. And yes - I am excited to see how my shiny new income affects my SS income. Need some additional motivators to stay in the game. Guess that is a sign of getting old. SS won't have 2019 numbers on individual accounts by March. I don't know exactly which month, but the information sent in by employers isn't going to go to individual accounts by then. Self employment income isn't due to the IRS until April 15. Lots of self employed people go on extension, so make that October 15. Than information will not be going to SS by March.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jan 19, 2020 11:51:56 GMT -5
I don't think that the sudden inclusion of income data from your teens and twenties would affect your projected benefit unless you had many years of even suckier (adjusted) income.
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Jan 19, 2020 11:52:09 GMT -5
I have lots of 0 earning years because I worked for the federal government under CSRS.
My Social Security report is useless because I only have one year of full earnings since I retired and the WEP wipes out the measly amount of social security I would be owed.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 11:54:14 GMT -5
yeah - no clue really.
But in the 90's - that income is not on my earnings report (5 years affected due to academic years spanning across 2 calendar years.) that is 5 of the <10k earning years, and it only shows my 2nd/3rd job income. I was also paid on a federal grant for 2 of those years - and I'm not sure how that is included.
On the year I am most sure of what was going on. I had a 1 day a week waitress job. I worked 1-2 days/week on the federal research grant, and had a 50% TA appointment that netted me about 850 month during the academic year, and my total income listed is 6k for one year and 5k for the other. (Again - that academic year spilled across 2 calendar years)
The TA/RA income from the university (RA was not the fed grant job - that was a different entity) was called a stipend. Not sure what they really means income wise.
But - I don't think that they would delve into things in the 90's to change that up?
Could it be related to me owing the IRS 7k when I filed in April? Would SS know about that and make adjustments?
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TheOtherMe
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Post by TheOtherMe on Jan 19, 2020 12:06:14 GMT -5
It has nothing to do with any money you owed for the taxes you filed last year.
Were the stipends taxable and were they subject to FICA? Social security isn't going to research for you for years that old. The original documents they had have been destroyed.
If you have your original copies, you might call and talk to them. If you don't, you are probably SOL.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 12:14:40 GMT -5
It has nothing to do with any money you owed for the taxes you filed last year. Were the stipends taxable and were they subject to FICA? Social security isn't going to research for you for years that old. The original documents they had have been destroyed. If you have your original copies, you might call and talk to them. If you don't, you are probably SOL. I'm not concerned about that at all, I certainly have no records about it! I'm just trying to figure out why the same data array is winding up at a higher benefit level. I am hoping it is not an error that will be retracted, and not related to higher income in the unrecorded 2019 year, because then there is more to come .
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 12:16:18 GMT -5
I think the vast majority of us are reliant on SS systems being accurate. If there was an error - and I should be getting $38.79/month more in benefits.....I'd be the last to know and it would never get corrected unless they find it!
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 12:26:49 GMT -5
Sorry, I shouldn't have said "report" I should have said "projection". Does the April paper report that you are looking at include the numbers used in the projection?
But scratch that, I have a better idea. Perhaps the difference in projection is due to a change in equalization numbers factors.
all income numbers are the same. not sure what equalization factors are - or how they may have changed?
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 19, 2020 12:50:26 GMT -5
Sorry, I shouldn't have said "report" I should have said "projection". Does the April paper report that you are looking at include the numbers used in the projection?
But scratch that, I have a better idea. Perhaps the difference in projection is due to a change in equalization numbers factors.
all income numbers are the same. not sure what equalization factors are - or how they may have changed? For every year of past income, SSA applies an indexing factor to normalize amounts over time. This is why an average income 30 years ago counts the same as an average income ten years ago, or today. It is possible that those indexing factors have been updated with the new year, thus increasing those adjusted income values. Also, for those over 62, projections may change because COLAs are now credited even for those not yet receiving benefits.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 13:00:30 GMT -5
all income numbers are the same. not sure what equalization factors are - or how they may have changed? For every year of past income, SSA applies an indexing factor to normalize amounts over time. This is why an average income 30 years ago counts the same as an average income ten years ago, or today. It is possible that those indexing factors have been updated with the new year, thus increasing those adjusted income values. Also, for those over 62, projections may change because COLAs are now credited even for those not yet receiving benefits. welp I'm not 62.....could it be the COLA though?
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 19, 2020 13:14:53 GMT -5
For every year of past income, SSA applies an indexing factor to normalize amounts over time. This is why an average income 30 years ago counts the same as an average income ten years ago, or today. It is possible that those indexing factors have been updated with the new year, thus increasing those adjusted income values. Also, for those over 62, projections may change because COLAs are now credited even for those not yet receiving benefits. welp I'm not 62.....could it be the COLA though? Shouldn't be. Even if it were, the amount would not be quite that high. COLA was 1.6% so you could compare the projections from last year to this and see what the increase was. Benefit projections are expressed in current dollar terms to enable a comparison with those already receiving benefits. I'd guess (and it is just a guess) it was an updating of the indexing numbers in conjunction with your income history.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jan 19, 2020 13:18:50 GMT -5
I think that it is much more likely to be the timing of when they apply indexing. That is, the SSA hadn't applied indexing to your 2018 income by April 2018 and that they had applied it sometime before January 2020. It's only 1.0362 but since it also applies to all of the years between 2018 and your projected retirement ages, it can have quite an effect.
ETA That reference to April 2018 should have been April 2019.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 13:43:50 GMT -5
welp I'm not 62.....could it be the COLA though? Shouldn't be. Even if it were, the amount would not be quite that high. COLA was 1.6% so you could compare the projections from last year to this and see what the increase was. Benefit projections are expressed in current dollar terms to enable a comparison with those already receiving benefits. I'd guess (and it is just a guess) it was an updating of the indexing numbers in conjunction with your income history. hmmmm - $54 didn't strike me as a lot - but it's around a 3% increase on my retire at 62 scenario. 2.874% - retire at 67 2.734% - retire at 70 3.123% - retire at 62 I think it's got to be related to my increased income, a 3% increase. I exceed the max income for ss taxes in 2019 - could that have trigger it, even though they don't list the income?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jan 19, 2020 14:01:02 GMT -5
I think that it is much more likely to be the timing of when they apply indexing. That is, the SSA hadn't applied indexing to your 2018 income by April 2018 and that they had applied it sometime before January 2020. It's only 1.0362 but since it also applies to all of the years between 2018 and your projected retirement ages, it can have quite an effect.
That might be the difference then. I guess at some point, the 2019 income will be in there and I can see if there are further changes. Seem like a footnote would be in order if amounts change within the same reporting year? But I'm not seeing anything. Thanks so much for sharing your in-depth knowledge, haapai - it's all a black box to me!
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