The (new) Financial Tsunami thread

[saldeck]

Old and Gray,
The New Market Talk: Pareto's Principle at it's best. Is it not?
I wish you a very Merry Christmas, sir.

[awakeandobserving]

I am a new contributor. I've been watching, reading, checking, LEARNING...and laughing, guffawing and occasionally cursing for many months thru this and other msn money board threads.

As I listen tonight to St. Olaf's Christmas Choir from Minnesota Public Radio---amazing talent, year after year---I just felt compelled to finally jump in. Learning that the MT board was being retired next month was also compelling...

O&G, I hope to continue to read your missives....they cover just about everything I didn't learn in college--I'm a science gal---and to say that I have the utmost and deep respect for your life's experience, your talent, and your sharing of it here would be an understatement. You are the closest being to the character Dr. Akston in my favorite book, Atlas Shrugged. Happy 10th decade. We should all honor such years in your manner....

FTI----almost a ditto of O&G. I stand in awe of such talent, even though you are waaaay over my head!! I don't have the portfolio heft to be a client of yours, but a girl can dream, can't she?

Decoy---I know, you post a lot of "strange" stuff.....but then I research it and find, voila...not so far off the mark, hey...

BiMetal and Flow---waaay over my head but enjoy and LEARN from you immensly.

Robin---I'm in health care, as are you. I'm also "prepared" as are you (not as fully, but getting there, thanks to you)...really love your posts.

I just wanted to let all of you, the "regular" posters know that I, a little nobody here in a midwest state, anxiously anticipate your posts, past, present and future. It has been and will continue to be a bonus education for me. I sincerely appreciate the effort you have all put forward in these many posts; I understand the time it takes, on top of your "real" jobs.

Thank you.

Merry Christmas to all, and a Happy and Healthy Prosperous New Year.

[olderstill]

awake and observing

Nobody is a nobody. Never think that way again!

O&G

[franktheimpaler]

Dearest awakeandobserving

Some of the best relationships I have and have begun started with no money...money is not the criteria for life...yes it makes some things easier but I also see where it handicaps people and they have no ability or soul because of it.

Just rember $100 a month for 15 years is $100K in a good fund...now extrapolate those numbers and were cooking with gas!!!
God bless and Merry Christmas!!!!

[olderstill]

Exactly a year ago today - message # 842 - (This rendition page 5 about 1/8th of the way down) we extended season's greetings. Who thought at that time that a year later we'd be in another location starting anew. but. . . . .




MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!


HERE'S LOOKING FOWARD TO ANOTHER GOOD


YEAR FOR EVERYONE.


gong xi fa cai. . . . Shinen omedito gozaimasu.

Feliz ano Nuevo. . . .

Nouvel an, Nouveau visage, et Esprit nouveau.


The best wishes to all who pass this way.

O&G

[olderstill]

saldeck

Glad to see you here.

You must read about the other side of Pareto. Moshe Adler of Columbia U. was mentioned previously. His "Economics for the Rest of Us" is short (too short for such a message as he carries), $25 retail (and you can probably get a good sized discount on Amazon or ebay), and he discusses Pareto Efficiency from the consumer and worker's point of view. An entirely different emphasis with entirely different conclusions. . . . And, from a woman's point of view, whenever he speaks of the consumer, the worker, the professor, or the general public, it's always "SHE".

And, the best of wishes for you, too.

[neohguy]

Is it possible to pin this thread?

[olderstill]

To those familiar with oriental ideographs. . . I've discovered a weakness in this system. . . It will not reproduce the oriental characters, so we'll have to make do with the Romaji in message #274. We can still hope for the best in the New Year.

[saldeck]

Old and Gray,

surely, I will read that book. Thank you. But....with "The Decoy Post" rentrée, the 80/20 Pareto's rule has been applied. Rien ne va plus. A new trip starts here. Where we will go?

[saldeck]

Old and Gray,

Can I share something with you? It made me happy.



These green shoots have to grow, they fill hearts, theaters and also...wallets.
Art is also business.
No cuts to Culture
No cuts to Art
No cuts to Future

Happy New Year
See you Next Year!

[The Virginian]

Awakeand Observing,

Your post above has just proved that some that speak the least have the most to say!
Thanks for your great post.

[olderstill]

saldeck

Never heard him before.

The lead-in piece, Aria, was fine, sonorous, balanced, well arranged. However, the three others I chose, had terrible sound quality. No artist shoud be forced to stand for that. But then, that's youtube, isn't it.

Thank you.

[olderstill]

BTW, Duff's new site will up and running soon. He signed in here, but I've seen none of his posts. He must be busy setting up his Duffminster Times.

For the interested, his link is

www.duffminster.com

When he gets set up completely it may be worth a visit. Building his own nest, he won't have to worry about being censured or denied access.

[olderstill]

Holiday season or not, the FDIC staff is still at work. I’m beginning to get the impression that this agency may one of the few giving the American taxpayer what he/she pays for. They’re entitled to hold their heads high through the mess.

Press Release

FDIC Makes Public November Enforcement Actions; No Administrative Hearings Scheduled for January 2011

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 30, 2010

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released a list of orders of administrative enforcement actions taken against banks and individuals in November. No administrative hearings are scheduled.

The FDIC processed a total of 92 matters in November. These included 28 consent orders; 13 removal and prohibition orders; 28 civil money penalties; two prompt corrective actions; four section 19 orders; one modification; 13 orders terminating consent orders and orders to cease and desist; one order terminating supervisory prompt corrective action directive; one adjudicated decision; and one notice of assessment of civil money penalty, findings of fact and conclusions of law, order to pay, and notice of hearing.

Copies of the orders referred to above can be obtained from or inspected at the FDIC's Public Information Center, 3501 Fairfax Drive, Room E-1002, Arlington, VA (telephone [phone] or 1-877-275-3342). To view individual orders below, click the link for the PDF next to the order. To view all orders online, visit the FDIC's Web page at

www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/enforcement/index.html.

A list of orders made public today follows.

What followed was a list of the 92 banks on which the above actions were taken.

Your FDIC is still hard at work, cleaning up the mess, while the industry is out playing golf or celebrating their latest bonus.

[neohguy]

Jan 4, 2011 21:52:29 GMT -5 @comokate said:

A well deserved bump

Agreed

[olderstill]

I don't know where this subject fits, but I do think it deserves notice and comment. If I start a new thread (which would be preferred) it might be moved out of sight and ignored. It's much too important for that. It's political yet above politics, has nothing to do with the market or a mix of market and politics, so I'll present it here and see what the mods do.

Treat it kindly, please; it's a subject and an issue close to an old heart and younger hearts may feel the same.

I'm repeating it here from a posting on duffminster.com/times early this morning after I read the blog on the NYTimes site.


Congressional Errant Reading of the US Constitution an Affront

Submitted by Old and Gray on Mon, 01/10/2011 - 01:26

To some, the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution are as close to sacred as profane writing can be. This is especially true to those families who inherited ties to the documents through the sacrifices of the writers and signers of the documents.

An affront to those faithfuls occurred when Congress took it on themselves to alter, by plan or accident, the wording of the Constitution they have sworn in their oath of office to uphold and defend in its marathon presentation last week. If those in attendance had the proper respect for the document, they would have interrupted proceedings to ask for a full and faithful reading for that portion deliberately omitted, and if accidentally overlooked, protest should have redirected proceedings to re-read those neglected sections with proper respect.

The event was not witnessed by this writer and is placed here as second hand reporting with a sense of agitation. The New York Times ran an article by Tobin Harshaw in its blogging section found here:

opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/the-constitution-sort-of...

The organizers took it on themselves to rearrange the Consitution to suit their own sensibilities. This action was without approval of historians, the nation' citizens, our courts, or even the gesture of a majority note of the nation's legislative body. Holier-than-thou is not an acceptable attitude for Congressmen and women.

This act transends hubris. What makes the act all the more ridiculous was the ommission of one reference to slavery and the oversight of the next. That was not the only alteration or preferred reading of the Constitution presented, whole pages were missed. We can only conclude it was the will or whim of the organizers. It was remarked several times previously that several states' requirements for Congressional office do not include literacy. Apparently, some occupying the office are intent on proving this at any cost.

We should never hesitate to remind ourselves that whatever happened in the course of our nation's development was achieved at no small cost in lives and fortunes and is still being paid for on a daily basis. To tamper with our founding documents which illustrate our nation's dedication and determination in any way is offensive. To do so at an official congressional proceeding for no other purpose than to advance a point of view borders on heinous and is certainly within the bounds of reprehensible to some points of view.

Apologies to the entire nation are in order for such gross and tasteless presumption, or what I personally judge as desecration.

[comokate]

I agree with your opinions on the matter. We are at a threshold moment in this country. We have a choice of moving ahead in a positive, lawful direction beneficial for all citizens according to the laws that this great nation was founded upon, or we can choose to stand by and watch not only our own futures be destroyed but the futures of our children and maybe the nation itself.
I will share this link on various social medias as well as "in person" with people I know from the various state, local and federal agencies I have volunteered with-
Unless someone is dealing with a person with a mental disorder ( and those "cluster B" Axis II can be pretty damaging to deal with) most human behavior follows a pattern that once discovered can often demonstrate what their motivation is. Politicians, attorneys and others choose their words *very carefully*. There are no "mistakes" ( unless said int he heat of the moment, and often they can make those "disappear"....). The pen truly can be mightier than the sword. Those choosing to distort the words our nation was founded on, to be governed by, is very telling. And the story being told isn't a positive one...for us.

[scaredshirtless]

I try to find non technical ways to explain this to friends (and anyone who will listen frankly). One I'm using lately is that this is one big cat and mouse game.

Except we're supposed to be the cat and the banksters the mouse.

Basically - thanks to buying off Congress and getting pesky regulations repealed - like Glass/Steagel, etc....

The cat is now the banksters and WE are the mice!!!!!

Now I find that a very scary thought! Do we even control the vote anymore?

[neohguy]

David Stockman, Ronald Reagans director of Budget and Management, warns of an inevitable financial tsunami. He warns that what we are being told by Capitol Hill and Wall St is totally nonsense. I saw David Stockman on Fareed Zakaria GPS a few weeks ago. I was impressed with his ability to explain financial concepts in understandable terms. This article was published in RawStory and copied at The Automatic Earth.
www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/america-has-reached-the-point-of-no-return-reagan-budget-director-warns/
Exclusive: America has ‘reached the point of no return,’ Reagan budget director warnsThe Obama administration's $78 billion cut to US defense spending is a mere "pin-prick" to a behemoth military-industrial complex that must drastically shrink for the good of the republic, a former Reagan administration budget director recently told Raw Story.

"It amounts to a failed opportunity to recognize that we are now at a historical inflection point at which the time has arrived for a classic post-war demobilization of the entire military establishment," David Stockman said in an exclusive interview."The Cold War is long over," he continued. "The wars of occupation are almost over and were complete failures -- Afghanistan and Iraq. The American empire is done. There are no real seriously armed enemies left in the world that can possibly justify an $800 billion national defense and security establishment, including Homeland Security."

Short of that, he suggested, the United States has "reached the point of no return" with its artificial creation of wealth, and will eventually face a sharp economic decline.Stockman last fall criticized the extension of the Bush tax cuts while the federal government continued to borrow money abroad to pay for its public welfare and warfare programs. His solution to deficit spending -- a huge across-the-board tax increase -- is contrary to the current anti-tax ideology shared among tea party activists as well as fiscal conservatives in the Republican Party. Stockman, who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981 to run the Office of Management and Budget, offered two models for the US military's compulsory demobilization: the one after World War I in 1920 and the one after World War II in 1946.

Calling today's military spending running at 5.4 percent of GDP "simply an absurd level that begs for radical contraction and surgery," he said that a "reasonable target" to shrink the defense establishment would be 3 percent of GDP by 2015.
What budget cuts?
Republicans, who were elected to a majority in the House of Representatives on promises to cut government spending, promised to cut $100 billion from the budget in their first year. Relatively few have proposed significant decreases in defense spending, and GOP leadership has outright dismissed the possibility.

Some prominent members of the House GOP caucus have even suggested the sum of their austerity measures could fall to only $30 billion, if that.

Republicans in Congress have instead championed their success in extending President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. The Congressional Research Service reported (PDF) that extending debased tax rates to the wealthy will add an additional $5.08 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years.
The Bush-era tax rates that Republicans had set to expire were continued for another two years in a legislative compromise that cleared the way for a series of Democratic legislative victories in Congress. President Obama vowed to press the issue again in 2012.

Among their first actions as the House majority, Republicans also pushed for a repeal of President Obama's health care reform laws, even as the Senate's Democratic majority vowed to block the measure. Repeal of the laws would cost an additional $230 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (PDF), and would likely drive the number of uninsured Americans to over 54 million by 2019.
But with the US national debt ballooning past $14 trillion in recent days, even a debasement of the military-industrial complex might be too little, too late.

Some analysts have warned the next debt crisis could be municipal bonds, where a $2 trillion market bubble currently exists. One, who correctly predicted the Citigroup credit crunch, even suggested that over 100 US cities may default in the process.

But very few, if anyone, in Congress, the National Security Council, the State or Defense Departments have even dared to publicly raise the prospect of reducing the military establishment and its spending to offset the national debt, Stockman said.

"Unless you have a profound change in foreign policy, you're not going to have the possibility of a radical change in defense spending. The later follows from the former," he said.

"This is a profound disappointment that there's not even a debate -- a serious debate about dramatic change in our imperialist foreign policy and war-making establishment in this administration -- allegedly the most left-wing administration that we've had in modern time."
"I don't have much hope that what needs to be done will be done until it's finally forced on us by a world bond market crisis, which will happen sooner or later," Stockman added.
The 'Ponzi scheme' of 'artificial prosperity'

Stockman, who described himself as a libertarian during a recent interview with Reason.tv, told Raw Story that the economy got into this mess because of the public and private sectors' addiction to "guns and butter Keynesianism," an economic policy that amounts to a Ponzi scheme that has ballooned since 1990.
"If we see what's going on carefully, we've reached the final unmasking of the Keynesian illusion, that Keynesianism is really nothing but borrowing, stealing from the future to induce consumption today," he said. "There are no multipliers. Every one of these programs we've had from 'cash for clunkers' to housing purchase credits have disappeared as soon as they expired and simple shifted activities in time by a few months."

Stockman explained that before 1980, it took about $1.50 of new borrowing -- public or private -- to generate $1 of GDP growth. By the mid-1990s, it was $2.50 or $3 of borrowing for a $1 of GDP growth. By 2007, before the big collapse and meltdown finally came, $7 of public and private debt was added to the national balance sheet in order to get $1 of GDP growth.
"When you get to the point of $7 of borrowing to get $1 of income, you're obviously on an unsustainable path and pretty close to hitting the wall, which more or less we have," he said.

"So the addicts in Washington are now unfortunately terrified to stop all this borrowing whether it's for guns or butter for fear of the economy will collapse.... That's why we're just at the beginning of solving this massive financial collapse we had in 2008 and not in the process of healthy recovery as some of the pals in the White House or on Capitol Hill or on Wall Street would have you believe.America's "massive debt-created, artificial prosperity" is unprecedented in history, he continued. The dependence on consumption supported by public and private borrowing, not income, is a new stage for Western Europe as well.

A global public debt crisis was inevitable and likely unstoppable, given the political conditions, Stockman added.

"We've reached a point of no return. The size of the government. The massive size of the deficits and the national debt that has been created. The precedents that have been established for bailouts and intervention in every sector of the economy. The K Street lobbying system which totally dominates the Congress. All of these are very unhealthy developments.
"And I'm not sure how they are going to be reversed or eliminated," he concluded. "It may be a permanent way of life. Then, if it is, it'll be both a corruption of democracy and a serious weakening of the private capitalistic economy."

[olderstill]

neohguy

Stockman is still in touch with Washington. He hasn't isolated himself. Matter of fact he attended the last FOMC meeting. . . . among other appearances. He wants to keep abreast of happenings and when he issues a statement or participates in an interview it is not as an outsider.

. . . And. . . I agree with him totally on that ominous last sentence.

As for the decline we face, it's echoed in almost everything that comes out of Washington these days. Bernanke himself, on the occasion of his last testimony before the Congressional Budget Committee, cited some bone-chilling stats on what we face in the next 25 years. . the most significant being that our
"unsustainable" current debt will become even more "unsustainable" in the future. In 2035, Bernanke predicted, the debt would be 185% of GDP. If GDP were to remain at the current level, I might not only agree but suggest that it could be higher than 185%.

But, I believe that it would not happen simply because his statement that the Fed would not monetize the debt doesn't ring true. They WILL monetize the debt and we'll end up with inflation that will reduce the impact of the debt by raising the reported GDP. So, even if production remains at the current level, the revaluation of the dollar will boost the reported GDP and reduce the ratio of debt (which on a dollar basis will not increase) to GDP (which on a dollar basis WILL increase).

Even if Bernanke were to resist monetizing - his replacement - or replacements between now and 2035 will not be able to.

Of course, that inflation could never sustain our present standard of living, but it will make the books look better and add a little encouraging boost to our creditors who work on percentages and ratios as much as they work with value.

Matter of fact, I believe that the December boost to GDP was partially inflationary and partially seasonal employment and inventory replacement.

[neohguy]

Olderstill #289:
"Matter of fact, I believe that the December boost to GDP was partially inflationary and partially seasonal employment and inventory replacement.

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=moneytalk&action=display&thread=122&page=10#ixzz1AuwWAYp1

I'm receiving 2011 price books for industrial items that we sell. The price increases are the highest that I've seen since I started working for this company 23 yrs ago. Products made out of copper, stainless steel, and brass copper alloy have increase in cost 7%-13%. Three of these companies still manufacture and assemble in the US. The cost increase is not due to labor costs.
The amount of grain in US storage is at its lowest level in years. Huge amounts were exported because of the increase in cost due to failed or poor quality crops in the other grain producing countries.
I wouldn't be surprised if inflation is a factor in determining gdp.

[olderstill]

Indeed inflation is a factor in determining GDP!

In the past Bernanke was asked if the Fed intended to "monetize" the debt and he replied. "No."

Monetizing is inflation put to work to increase the numbers value of the dollar count behind the GDP. With a cheaper dollar, GDP rises while the debt remains the same. So, working out the ratio of debt over GDP, debt is a smaller percentage.

In view of what awaits us over the horizon, we have little choice but to pump the dollar to save ourselves. If Bernanke doesn't do it, his successor must. It's impossible to function with the debt standing at 185% (projected for 2035) of the GDP whatever the time frame. For one thing the debt continues to increase due to compounding interest. . . etc., etc. We've been through this. . . For another, we're in the inflationary mode now.

My son just told me that Florida's new governor issued an order to lay off 50,000 state workers. At the same time he was calling for an increase in business hiring - he'd like to see 750,000 new employees.

Yesterday, at the supermarket, it seems every other product was $0.30 higher than it was at the beginning of the week. . . Even sale items were $0.30 more expensive. Denial from the
authorities will never convince me other than what my wallet feels. It yelled ouch! yesterday.
. . . And, gas is up over $3.00 with no promise to look back.

[djrick]

"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration."
— U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, December 3, 1861

[olderstill]

dj

Old hat! Lincoln? That's over 150 years old!

You'd better check with Wall Street, the banks or the Fed before posting something with a ring to it like that. They've dicarded every Economic concept before or after the one which favors their current stance.

[olderstill]

NO!!! WAIT!!!! HE WAS A REPUBLICAN, WASN'T HE?

Now how can we handle this to clean it up and correlate it to current Republican Party discipline?

[djrick]

lol, yes, os, President Lincoln was a repub, as my mother would say he must be spinning in his grave ...........

Oh, and you posted "Yesterday, at the supermarket, it seems every other product was $0.30 higher than it was at the beginning of the week. . . Even sale items were $0.30 more expensive.

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=moneytalk&action=display&thread=122&page=10#ixzz1BIrqHedR


Its only inflationary if you like to eat food, har! best to you sir

[maui1]

i think the fed gives the gov't the opportunity to grow beyond it's constitutional controls, and when we have big gov't, we have less personal freedom. with less freedom, we are weak, and needy, which gives the gov't more control over our everyday lives, and the cycle continues until it ends with another country taking world control, thru individual freedoms and small gov't.

[marshabar1]

I haven't read through this entire thread but am familiar with the OP. Has anyone looked at this article from Feb, 2009?

*******************

By Catherine Austin Fitts

In the fall of 2001 I attended a private investment conference in London to give a paper, The Myth of the Rule of Law or How the Money Works: The Destruction of Hamilton Securities Group.

The presentation documented my experience with a Washington-Wall Street partnership that had:

* Engineered a fraudulent housing and debt bubble;
* Illegally shifted vast amounts of capital out of the U.S.;
* Used “privitization” as a form of piracy - a pretext to move government assets to private investors at below-market prices and then shift private liabilities back to government at no cost to the private liability holder.

Other presenters at the conference included distinguished reporters covering privatization in Eastern Europe and Russia. As the portraits of British ancestors stared down upon us, we listened to story after story of global privatization throughout the 1990s in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

Slowly, as the pieces fit together, we shared a horrifying epiphany: the banks, corporations and investors acting in each global region were the exact same players. They were a relatively small group that reappeared again and again in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Asia accompanied by the same well-known accounting firms and law firms.

Clearly, there was a global financial coup d’etat underway. . . .

solari.com/blog/?p=2058

Austin Fitts included in her newsletter a link to this story today.

jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/egypt-and-the-pyramid-of-power/

The idea of the article is that globalists are using violent Islam as a cat's paw in order to destabilize the world, bring up the price of oil and gain more control over a less free world population.

[olderstill]

Am familiar with Austin-Fitts, originator of the "pump and " label describing over-inflating value in scrap and selling it off before disowning it.

She was referenced in the tsunami thread and other posters had providing links to her site and her works on line. She has been writing of this practice for quite a few years.

[comokate]

Feb 16, 2011 19:15:41 GMT -5 @marshabar1 said:

I haven't read through this entire thread but am familiar with the OP. Has anyone looked at this article from Feb, 2009?

*******************

By Catherine Austin Fitts

In the fall of 2001 I attended a private investment conference in London to give a paper, The Myth of the Rule of Law or How the Money Works: The Destruction of Hamilton Securities Group.

The presentation documented my experience with a Washington-Wall Street partnership that had:

* Engineered a fraudulent housing and debt bubble;
* Illegally shifted vast amounts of capital out of the U.S.;
* Used “privitization” as a form of piracy - a pretext to move government assets to private investors at below-market prices and then shift private liabilities back to government at no cost to the private liability holder.

Other presenters at the conference included distinguished reporters covering privatization in Eastern Europe and Russia. As the portraits of British ancestors stared down upon us, we listened to story after story of global privatization throughout the 1990s in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

Slowly, as the pieces fit together, we shared a horrifying epiphany: the banks, corporations and investors acting in each global region were the exact same players. They were a relatively small group that reappeared again and again in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Asia accompanied by the same well-known accounting firms and law firms.

Clearly, there was a global financial coup d’etat underway. . . .

solari.com/blog/?p=2058

Austin Fitts included in her newsletter a link to this story today.

jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/egypt-and-the-pyramid-of-power/

The idea of the article is that globalists are using violent Islam as a cat's paw in order to destabilize the world, bring up the price of oil and gain more control over a less free world population.

excellent link, thank you for sharing. I was unfamiliar with the author, however, familiar with the content.