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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2019 15:26:29 GMT -5
ok, there is a significant change here, based on the first "debates".
Biden and Sanders continue to slump, and Warren and Harris are popping:
www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html
this is THE WORST poll for Biden since the very first one was taken. it shows clear trouble for him. on ONE HAND, he is all alone on the first tier. on the OTHER HAND, the second tier now has THREE MEMBERS, and Sanders (who was a first tier candidate) is one of them.
so, what we have now is Biden on top, with a 3 way race for 2nd. but now, it is not just Warren that has momentum. it is Harris.
it looks like it is going to be a 4 way race for a while. which is interesting, right? the lead between the 2nd tier and the rest of the pack has widened, and Biden's lead continues to shrink (though he is still on top). I expect that to continue.......
this CNN poll should scare the crap out of him.
edit: if you dig through the numbers, there are two that stand out. one is that Biden is way ahead with African American voters. the second is that Harris is seen as being far better for "race relations". I doubt that this is sustainable. in other words, I expect Biden's support to continue to erode as this "sinks in" and we will end up with a very close 4 way race that might not be resolved until the first primaries.
edit2: I went back and reviewed my FIRST POST, and noticed that Buttegeig has fallen from 2nd to third tier (4%). his support is roughly half what it was at his peak. I am not sure why that is. he is a pretty good candidate. Do you think CNN'S POLL might be an outlier? Two other polls shows a much smaller drop in Biden's polling numbers. well, sure. but that can always be said for the first poll following a major event.
there is only one other poll I have seen that showed a smaller move, and I think it OVERLAPPED the debates.
but you are right to question me. i am just trying to feel the pulse of what is going on, and predict, as best i can, where things are going. it FEELS bad for Biden right now, but i could very well be wrong.
chalk this up for me "predicting". i am willing to be held to account for it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2019 19:06:56 GMT -5
new Quinnipiac poll out today, and it is even worse than the CNN poll for Biden: poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631Biden's losses seem to be falling right in Harris' lap. she is now only 2 points down. this confirms the CNN number of 22% for Biden. he is now down 5 points on average in the last week, and off 15 points from his peak in early May. contrast with Harris, who is now showing her best average results ever. this is what I see, today: Sanders seems to be holding on to his 15%, but he is not gaining any ground. Biden is now resting at 22% in the last two surveys, and that is where I think he is heading, on average. he is sitting at 27% average now, so he has another 5% of decline to go, imo. Harris is soaring. she was at 12% back in Feb, but then disappeared into the pack, reaching a low of 6% on June 13th. since then she is up 7%, and looks poised to tack on another 5%. Warren has been rising steadily for 3 months now, and along with Harris is showing her best numbers of the campaign, and is basically tied with her, and still in 3rd place. Biden is still +12% on the field average, but I expect him to lose at least half of that this month.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 3, 2019 10:20:56 GMT -5
Biden has hit a bump in the road. There will be many- no matter who the front runner is. I personally do not think this one is fatal for him. For one thing, his point about working with segregationalists is VALID. Part of his point was also how loathsome they were too, don't forget. Bussing? Old news, and old issue. Not saying it isn't valid, but there are only so many who will be overly disturbed by that. I think Anita Hill actually has more potential harm than either of those issues. He will have to step up and show why he is the front runner, and why he deserves the nomination, at some point sooner rather than later. I think if he can find a way to go toe to toe with Trump and eviscerate him that is his best play. Call him out on this silly parade thing- the draft dodger playing with tanks. Call him out on Iran- blowing up the peace deal. Call him out on how he is mistreating kids while pointing to the Obama Biden record of border control. He has so many ways to do this. Point out the Emperor's nakidity. you might notice that nowhere in my posts did I mention any other party taking the lead over Biden.
what this does is make it a 4 way race rather than a 2 way race. and I think that is healthy.
the more competitive the race is, the more the eventual leader will be forced to stretch and adopt popular ideas.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 3, 2019 13:26:10 GMT -5
Do you think CNN'S POLL might be an outlier? Two other polls shows a much smaller drop in Biden's polling numbers. well, sure. but that can always be said for the first poll following a major event.
there is only one other poll I have seen that showed a smaller move, and I think it OVERLAPPED the debates.
but you are right to question me. i am just trying to feel the pulse of what is going on, and predict, as best i can, where things are going. it FEELS bad for Biden right now, but i could very well be wrong.
chalk this up for me "predicting". i am willing to be held to account for it.
For the record, I was not questioning you. I thought CNN might have been an outlier at the time and wondered if you thought that too.......I also saw your later post where Biden fell badly in another poll, so CNN probably had it correct...... Looks like we are in for a good ride the next few months with the democrats rising and falling for whatever reasons. The Democratic party is no longer President Obama's party, or at least he seems to be a former middle of the road democrat and right now, that group is out of the power center. Biden with decades of political office holdings, can be found flawed in so many ways, it will be hard to win the nomination, unless democrats come out and fully back him in Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe another early voting state.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 3, 2019 13:30:35 GMT -5
well, sure. but that can always be said for the first poll following a major event.
there is only one other poll I have seen that showed a smaller move, and I think it OVERLAPPED the debates.
but you are right to question me. i am just trying to feel the pulse of what is going on, and predict, as best i can, where things are going. it FEELS bad for Biden right now, but i could very well be wrong.
chalk this up for me "predicting". i am willing to be held to account for it.
For the record, I was not questioning you. I thought CNN might have been an outlier at the time and wondered if you thought that too.......I also saw your later post where Biden fell badly in another poll, so CNN probably had it correct...... Looks like we are in for a good ride the next few months with the democrats rising and falling for whatever reasons. The Democratic party is no longer President Obama's party, or at least he seems to be a former middle of the road democrat and right now, that group is out of the power center. Biden with decades of political office holdings, can be found flawed in so many ways, it will be hard to win the nomination, unless democrats come out and fully back him in Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe another early voting state. I think that has been abundantly clear since 2016, don't you?
I once thought Obama was a pretty far left liberal. he certainly talked like one. but he governed like a moderate. in fact, some of his positions on war an taxes were indistinguishable from Reagan and GHW Bush.
the party is moving left, and leaving people like him and Biden behind. whether than plays all the way out in the primaries remains to be seen. and whether that is a working formula for victory is even more dubious, imo.
I am actually interested in how INDEPENDENT VOTERS view the Democratic candidates, but I have not researched this question. if anyone has data on it, and can post a link or the data, I would appreciate it.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 3, 2019 13:37:32 GMT -5
For the record, I was not questioning you. I thought CNN might have been an outlier at the time and wondered if you thought that too.......I also saw your later post where Biden fell badly in another poll, so CNN probably had it correct...... Looks like we are in for a good ride the next few months with the democrats rising and falling for whatever reasons. The Democratic party is no longer President Obama's party, or at least he seems to be a former middle of the road democrat and right now, that group is out of the power center. Biden with decades of political office holdings, can be found flawed in so many ways, it will be hard to win the nomination, unless democrats come out and fully back him in Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe another early voting state. I think that has been abundantly clear since 2016, don't you?
I once thought Obama was a pretty far left liberal. he certainly talked like one. but he governed like a moderate. in fact, some of his positions on war an taxes were indistinguishable from Reagan and GHW Bush.
the party is moving left, and leaving people like him and Biden behind. whether than plays all the way out in the primaries remains to be seen. and whether that is a working formula for victory is even more dubious, imo.
I am actually interested in how INDEPENDENT VOTERS view the Democratic candidates, but I have not researched this question. if anyone has data on it, and can post a link or the data, I would appreciate it.
Independents were probably responsible for electing many of the democrats in the 2018 election cycle. I wonder how most of them think whether they are still correct in voting democratic right now. It is possible these 20 democrats that were on the debate stage last week just elected a lot of Republicans in 2020. Time will tell.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 3, 2019 19:12:01 GMT -5
two more polls out today, and they are mixed for Biden.
one shows little change from the previous survey in terms of Biden and Warren. this would be the Economist poll. it shows Biden losing 2% to 23% (corroborating my prediction), and Warren unchanged at 19%.
the other is a brand new poll from ABC/WaPo that shows Biden at 30%- which is above his polling average. this survey also shows Sanders above his recent polling average, and Warren and Harris below theirs.
I think the latter poll is an outlier because it is not confirming ANY of the data for the 2nd tier candidates. HOWEVER, this is 3 surveys that show Biden with double digit leads, and 3 surveys with small (and shrinking) single digit leads in the last week. so, as of now, the polling is giving us "mixed signals". it might depend on survey wording, but I don't have time to look into it.
the long and short is that half the polls are pretty good news for Biden, and half of them are showing him in the low 20's- but ALL of them are showing him with a lead. the other piece of good news is for Harris. ALL of the six surveys show her in double digits, ALL of which are HER BEST POLL NUMBERS ON RECORD.
if there is some bad news in the last two surveys, it is for Sanders, who logged a miserable 9% in the Economist poll, his worst poll result to date.
NET TAKE: Biden still has a double digit lead, for now, with the three second tier candidates basically tied. we might not see much more movement until the next debate, or further breaking news for one of these candidates.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 10, 2019 10:45:05 GMT -5
four more polls out.
three show Biden with a double digit lead, and one with a single digit lead. so, the pattern we have been seeing since the first debate continues. both sets of polls can't be right. so, this is an adjustment that the pollsters need to make to get accurate data, and the numbers should converge over time.
FOR THE TIME BEING, HOWEVER......
Biden continues to have a double digit lead, and his numbers have stabilized. it is a three way tie for 2nd place between Warren, Harris, and Sanders, with no clear momentum for any of them (although the slow-but-steady gains for Warren are probably more heartening than the wild girations in poll numbers for Sanders and Harris).
Buttegeig is all alone in 5th. nobody else has over 5%
in head to head matchups, the numbers are getting better for Trump, except for with Biden. this is probably WHY Biden is maintaining his lead.
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Post by kadee79 on Jul 10, 2019 11:27:02 GMT -5
Just IMHO....and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone...if the Democrats move too far left, they are going to lose a lot of us including me! It needs to go slowly, not a major jump. I could be wrong & I often am wrong, but I don't see Harris remaining where she is now as things get further down the line.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 10, 2019 11:31:12 GMT -5
Just IMHO....and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone...if the Democrats move too far left, they are going to lose a lot of us including me! It needs to go slowly, not a major jump. I could be wrong & I often am wrong, but I don't see Harris remaining where she is now as things get further down the line. it appears that Warren, Sanders, and Harris are all gunning for the same piece of the pie. in the past, however, I have made the mistake of thinking "this means that one of them will end up with 45%". that is probably NOT true. some voters will move to Biden when these candidates drop out. so, I think Biden is actually in pretty good shape.
as long as he doesn't have any more major gaffes.
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 10, 2019 12:02:11 GMT -5
Just IMHO....and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone...if the Democrats move too far left, they are going to lose a lot of us including me! It needs to go slowly, not a major jump. I could be wrong & I often am wrong, but I don't see Harris remaining where she is now as things get further down the line. I agree. This will eventually be a generational battle. Who can turn out the most voters. As millenials continue to age, they will likely move towards the middle, especially if they get some key things - like economic progress, and affordable healthcare. If that doesn't come to them, they really have no reason to not burn this place to the ground.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 10, 2019 12:33:09 GMT -5
Just IMHO....and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone...if the Democrats move too far left, they are going to lose a lot of us including me! It needs to go slowly, not a major jump. I could be wrong & I often am wrong, but I don't see Harris remaining where she is now as things get further down the line. Unless you go all the way and vote for Trump, and other Republican candidates in Georgia you are a lost soul in the democratic quicksand and will be part of the group that destroys the country. This is really a simple decision. Keep America great or turn it into a third world mess. The choice is yours.
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Post by weltschmerz on Jul 10, 2019 12:37:57 GMT -5
Just IMHO....and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone...if the Democrats move too far left, they are going to lose a lot of us including me! It needs to go slowly, not a major jump. I could be wrong & I often am wrong, but I don't see Harris remaining where she is now as things get further down the line. Unless you go all the way and vote for Trump, and other Republican candidates in Georgia you are a lost soul in the democratic quicksand and will be part of the group that destroys the country. This is really a simple decision. Keep America great or turn it into a third world mess.The choice is yours. The US already reminds many industrialized countries of the third world. Trump is making it worse.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 10, 2019 12:43:23 GMT -5
Unless you go all the way and vote for Trump, and other Republican candidates in Georgia you are a lost soul in the democratic quicksand and will be part of the group that destroys the country. This is really a simple decision. Keep America great or turn it into a third world mess.The choice is yours. The US already reminds many industrialized countries of the third world. Trump is making it worse. Yep. Democrats moving the country backward at a fast pace.
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Post by weltschmerz on Jul 10, 2019 12:54:13 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 10, 2019 13:24:21 GMT -5
The US already reminds many industrialized countries of the third world. Trump is making it worse. Yep. Democrats moving the country backward at a fast pace. not to point out the obvious, but Democrats can't do thing one without Trump.
so, yeah, not buying it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 10, 2019 13:25:28 GMT -5
the one I find the most appalling is how dangerous it is to be a child in the US.
unacceptable, and disgraceful. our collective shame should suffice to fix the problem, if we had any.
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 10, 2019 14:01:05 GMT -5
The US already reminds many industrialized countries of the third world. Trump is making it worse. Yep. Democrats moving the country backward at a fast pace. Democrats moving it backwards?
It's the GOP that wants to turn back the clock.
Speed right back in time to when gays were safely in the closet, no one even heard of trans people, women were barefoot and pregnant, white men controlled everything, minorities knew to stick to their segments of town, and poor people kept to their shanties. Right back into the 50's.
Sure, American was great then. If you were white and male and middle class.
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Post by dondub on Jul 10, 2019 15:06:46 GMT -5
...will be part of the group that destroys the country.
What a crock of garbage that is. Repo-Con paranoia is clearly a disease.
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Post by tallguy on Jul 10, 2019 15:32:02 GMT -5
I am a fiscal conservative, so have little use for some of the policy ideas being put forth by progressives and the far-left. It is the social conservatives and the far-right that are the real danger, however. While the left may indeed damage us economically, the right will destroy what America is supposed to be.
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 10, 2019 16:15:52 GMT -5
Yep. Democrats moving the country backward at a fast pace. Democrats moving it backwards?
It's the GOP that wants to turn back the clock.
Speed right back in time to when gays were safely in the closet, no one even heard of trans people, women were barefoot and pregnant, white men controlled everything, minorities knew to stick to their segments of town, and poor people kept to their shanties. Right back into the 50's.
Sure, American was great then. If you were white and male and middle class.
Look, an article just released today that proves my point.
slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/07/mississippi-candidate-robert-foster-reporter-rejected-gender.html
Mississippi candidate for governor won't let a female reporter ride with him in his car - no women can be alone with him except his wife.
Maybe if she wore a burka he'd be more comfortable letting her in his car.
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 10, 2019 16:21:33 GMT -5
Democrats moving it backwards?
It's the GOP that wants to turn back the clock.
Speed right back in time to when gays were safely in the closet, no one even heard of trans people, women were barefoot and pregnant, white men controlled everything, minorities knew to stick to their segments of town, and poor people kept to their shanties. Right back into the 50's.
Sure, American was great then. If you were white and male and middle class.
Look, an article just released today that proves my point.
slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/07/mississippi-candidate-robert-foster-reporter-rejected-gender.html
Mississippi candidate for governor won't let a female reporter ride with him in his car - no women can be alone with him except his wife.
Maybe if she wore a burka he'd be more comfortable letting her in his car.
Maybe Robert Foster is the one who should wear the burka.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 10, 2019 16:36:17 GMT -5
Maybe Robert Foster is the one who should wear the burka. chastity belt is what I was thinking.
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 11, 2019 9:00:13 GMT -5
I am a fiscal conservative, so have little use for some of the policy ideas being put forth by progressives and the far-left. It is the social conservatives and the far-right that are the real danger, however. While the left may indeed damage us economically, the right will destroy what America is supposed to be. I may quote this 4 or 5 times, just to make sure everyone reads it multiple times.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 15, 2019 10:14:17 GMT -5
more new polling out in the wake of the second debate.
Warren is now clearly the candidate with the most momentum. she is in second place, now, about 2% ahead of Harris and Sanders. she trails Biden by single figures in 2 of the last three polls. and her head to head polling numbers are improving.
Biden is still crushing the 2nd tier in half of his polls. so, we still have that conundrum unsorted.
summarizing: Warren is the only candidate showing real gains right now. she has doubled her early campaign support and is now showing her best polling numbers- unlike the rest of the field. in the last two weeks, when basically ALL of the other candidates have shown no gains, Warren is up 3%, a small but significant gain which places her alone in second.
Buttigeig is alone in 5th, and nobody else is above 5%.
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 15, 2019 11:28:32 GMT -5
Let me know when they narrow it down to 3 or so people.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 15, 2019 14:38:09 GMT -5
Let me know when they narrow it down to 3 or so people. the top four have been the top four for almost 3 months.
I don't see anyone else breaking into that, except maybe Buttigeig.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 16, 2019 7:43:05 GMT -5
I move Dems to 0% chance of winning and this will not change unless the party consciously jettisons the "squad"
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Post by dondub on Jul 16, 2019 10:25:41 GMT -5
I move Dems to 0% chance of winning and this will not change unless the party consciously jettisons the "squad" Considering your most recent prognostications from 2018 I would like to be the first to thank you for insuring the Demos landslide in 2020.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 16, 2019 10:33:48 GMT -5
I move Dems to 0% chance of winning and this will not change unless the party consciously jettisons the "squad" even the NYT didn't think Trump had a 0% chance of winning. this means that you are even more crazy than the NYT. which, i am sure you will agree, is pretty crazy.
predictions this stupid are often wrong.
i give Trump a 30% chance of winning. that is infinitely more of a chance than you give him of losing.
edit: for the record, i think that Democrats will close ranks as 2020 approaches. that is MY prediction.
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