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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 19, 2019 20:54:37 GMT -5
there is also significant matchup polling. here are the polls that Trump trails in (second number is Trump): Biden 49.3/40.6 Sanders 49.5/43.3 Warren 47.5/44.3 Harris 46.8/44 Buttigeig 45/43.5 recall that the undecided vote broke 2:1 to Trump in the last election, and we get the following: Biden +5 Sanders +4 Warren +1/2 Harris -1/2 Buttegeig -2 recall that Clinton won by 2.1%, and we can say that Democrats currently have two viable candidates.
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Post by oped on Jun 19, 2019 21:24:55 GMT -5
This early is all name recognition.
So, did anyone hear a rumor about T swapping out his VP?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 19, 2019 22:06:05 GMT -5
This early is all name recognition. So, did anyone hear a rumor about T swapping out his VP? if he swaps out for someone less detestable, that might be a good move for him.
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 19, 2019 23:38:37 GMT -5
This early is all name recognition. So, did anyone hear a rumor about T swapping out his VP? if he swaps out for someone less detestable, that might be a good move for him. Could he get someone less detestable to accept?
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Jun 20, 2019 12:11:44 GMT -5
this has been an interesting read - Election Confessions: Tell Us How You Really Feelyou can sort by candidate or by state. I'm working my way through, state by state. and before anyone knocks it as left-wing garbage because it is NBC, there are praises and knocks on candidates of all stripes....in some unexpected places, too.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 20, 2019 13:34:27 GMT -5
1. Trump is running unopposed. I think this is a safe assumption. 2. The Democratic field has no 1st Tier candidates- it's a mix of 2nd and 3rd Tier candidates without a serious candidate in sight. 3. Trump's approval will remain below 50%. I am certain this is a safe assumption. The polls are rigged against him, but it doesn't matter. Polling has been irrelevant since November 2016.
Trump is an obvious heavy favorite to win re-election in 2020. He just raised $24.8 million from his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
The economy is humming along, consumer confidence and business optimism have literally never been higher, the unemployment numbers are at historic low levels for African Americans and Hispanics. Interest rates are low, inflation is non-existent, and it looks like the President is holding the Fed's feet to the fire and we're in for a rate cut -- e.g. stimulus. There have been multiple "wins" that have broad appeal-- scrapping NAFTA- the news broke today that Mexico is the first to ratify the USMCA-- overwhelmingly- killing TPP, historic progress with North Korea. Despite (for good reason) broad-based opposition to tariffs, there's been no change in consumer prices- and the strategy has largely worked.
The "leading" D is Biden, but after a week of rigged polls for Biden, the D establishment has decided to take him out. ABC News went full Hunter Biden discharged from Navy for testing positive for cocaine (and no one talks about the really odd Hunter Biden rental car episode), and his sweetheart deals with Ukraine and China. Word has come down. Biden is NOT going to be the nominee-- and this is before we discuss his high praise of his segregationist colleagues in the Senate and what a glorious time that was. So there goes one of your ONLY 2nd Tier candidates.
My theory: they will keep "mock impeachment" going to fundraise-- but Pelosi will never allow it. They will throw Bernie a bone and let him run. After he loses, the Dems will say, "See, we told you so" to their lunatic fringe left base. And Bernie will probably at least provide the energy they need to keep the House and then they'll have time to re-build for 2024.
I don't have the time to go into it right now, but the Dems are in terrible shape. They're LOSING money-- which is big. The propaganda media audience has collapsed following the end of the Russian Collusion Delusion. It's over for the Dems for awhile. They went all-in on the Russia hoax, and it cost them.
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Post by dondub on Jun 20, 2019 14:57:28 GMT -5
...it looks like the President is holding the Fed's feet to the fire and we're in for a rate cut -- e.g. stimulus.
He was not successful in his idiotic attempt to politicize the Fed. They held the course regardless of his bombastic showboationg and statement he wants to fire the chairman. And I guess you and Trump don't quite understand how the Fed works on rate cuts. If the economy is roaring, as you stated above, there is no need. In fact, if it's as roaring as you stated above the Fed should be considering another tightening so as to not have over stimulation
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jun 20, 2019 15:02:53 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 20, 2019 16:19:23 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
Weren't we told by someone who allegedly attended the August 2015 trump rally at the Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala that the stadium was completely full and an equal amount of those who wanted to be inside the stadium were outside watching on big screens? Why yes we were. And the picture below proves it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 20, 2019 16:39:01 GMT -5
the Trump News Network was careful to not show the wide angle shot. and the lied about the attendance. consistently.
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 20, 2019 17:00:06 GMT -5
T rump is an obvious heavy favorite to win re-election in 2020. He just raised $24.8 million from his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
You believe EVERYTHING Trump tells you to believe, eh? #sad Whether it was the weather – hot earlier in the day, rainy in the afternoon – or people just wanting invitations to the historic event for keepsakes, it did appear there were fewer people than were planned. The planned overflow area across from the arena was virtually empty as the rally began inside the arena. About an hour before Trump was scheduled to speak, the long lines snaking around the Amway Center in downtown Orlando were gone and people could easily walk into the event. A photo taken by an Orlando Sentinel photographer at 7 p.m. showed a large section of empty seats in the upper deck. www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-orlando-trump-rally-crowd-20190618-tkk2pwarsjcgzfwj2vknxgk3hy-story.html
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 20, 2019 17:22:01 GMT -5
I guess 79800 people got beamed back to Vogon: By the time Trump took the stage, less than 200 people were gathered outside, many of them choosing against entering the arena, which was still allowing entrants until just before the speech.
“He’s a smart man,” said Tony Raneri, who chose not to go inside so his wife could smoke, and said his business has doubled since Trump took office. “He knows how to get to the people. He’s getting it out there.”
Raneri and others cheered as Trump lauded his achievements and criticized Hillary Clinton. They cheered when he talked about improved job numbers, booed when he talked about the Mueller report, and yelled “Tell ‘em Trump!” here and there from their lawn chairs.
Behind the giant screen on which they watched him, a few protesters held up anti-Trump signs and a Mexican flag, and yelled “liar” and other choice words at various points in his speech. They stayed behind the fence, and security only intervened once – when a man attending the rally tried to shake the protesters’ hands.oh, and they were so thrilled with him, they left after an hour: After about an hour, a stream of people began to head out of the arena. A few meandered back to the field, hunting for their folding chairs and coolers by the light of the big screen. President Trump had not finished yet
that was from WaPo, so it is a lie, obviously.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 20, 2019 19:32:32 GMT -5
the Trump News Network was careful to not show the wide angle shot. and the lied about the attendance. consistently. Why there was confusion it appeared fewer attended trump's inauguration than Obama's.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 22, 2019 16:48:15 GMT -5
...it looks like the President is holding the Fed's feet to the fire and we're in for a rate cut -- e.g. stimulus.
He was not successful in his idiotic attempt to politicize the Fed. They held the course regardless of his bombastic showboationg and statement he wants to fire the chairman. And I guess you and Trump don't quite understand how the Fed works on rate cuts. If the economy is roaring, as you stated above, there is no need. In fact, if it's as roaring as you stated above the Fed should be considering another tightening so as to not have over stimulation The Fed's job isn't to control the rate of growth-- they've suppressed it with rate increases. They're job is to control inflation. Inflation is zero, so, there's no need for the higher rates. It was starting to hurt the housing market- market has leveled off a bit with lower home mortgage rates.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 22, 2019 16:56:36 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 22, 2019 20:52:22 GMT -5
Started out his re-election bid with 15 lies.
Guess he's sticking with the creative hyperbole shit again.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 22, 2019 23:26:16 GMT -5
I guess 79800 people got beamed back to Vogon: By the time Trump took the stage, less than 200 people were gathered outside, many of them choosing against entering the arena, which was still allowing entrants until just before the speech.
^^^^ This is completely and totally demonstrably false. I was prepared to go- I had to go to Texas (where I am now) for biz. I have more than 20 friends and acquaintances that were there. SOME left out of the outside crowd because of Sunrail schedules. AT NO TIME prior to the rally had the crowd dwindled below a number in the tens of thousands. Less than 200 is simply a lie.
“He’s a smart man,” said Tony Raneri, who chose not to go inside so his wife could smoke, and said his business has doubled since Trump took office. “He knows how to get to the people. He’s getting it out there.”
Raneri and others cheered as Trump lauded his achievements and criticized Hillary Clinton. They cheered when he talked about improved job numbers, booed when he talked about the Mueller report, and yelled “Tell ‘em Trump!” here and there from their lawn chairs.
Behind the giant screen on which they watched him, a few protesters held up anti-Trump signs and a Mexican flag, and yelled “liar” and other choice words at various points in his speech. They stayed behind the fence, and security only intervened once – when a man attending the rally tried to shake the protesters’ hands.oh, and they were so thrilled with him, they left after an hour: After about an hour, a stream of people began to head out of the arena. A few meandered back to the field, hunting for their folding chairs and coolers by the light of the big screen. President Trump had not finished yet
that was from WaPo, so it is a lie, obviously.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 10:00:25 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
Weren't we told by someone who allegedly attended the August 2015 trump rally at the Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala that the stadium was completely full and an equal amount of those who wanted to be inside the stadium were outside watching on big screens? Why yes we were. And the picture below proves it. Hate to mention this, but Trump won with just these sizes of crowds. When you start posting pictures of the turnouts for the democratic challengers showing less than 200 participants we can talk. Until then, just sour grapes on your part.
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 23, 2019 11:00:00 GMT -5
Weren't we told by someone who allegedly attended the August 2015 trump rally at the Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala that the stadium was completely full and an equal amount of those who wanted to be inside the stadium were outside watching on big screens? Why yes we were. And the picture below proves it. Hate to mention this, but Trump won with just these sizes of crowds. When you start posting pictures of the turnouts for the democratic challengers showing less than 200 participants we can talk. Until then, just sour grapes on your part. But the poster lied. Like trump, he lied.
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Post by kadee79 on Jun 23, 2019 12:11:38 GMT -5
I guess 79800 people got beamed back to Vogon: By the time Trump took the stage, less than 200 people were gathered outside, many of them choosing against entering the arena, which was still allowing entrants until just before the speech.
^^^^ This is completely and totally demonstrably false. I was prepared to go- I had to go to Texas (where I am now) for biz. I have more than 20 friends and acquaintances that were there. SOME left out of the outside crowd because of Sunrail schedules. AT NO TIME prior to the rally had the crowd dwindled below a number in the tens of thousands. Less than 200 is simply a lie.
“He’s a smart man,” said Tony Raneri, who chose not to go inside so his wife could smoke, and said his business has doubled since Trump took office. “He knows how to get to the people. He’s getting it out there.”
Raneri and others cheered as Trump lauded his achievements and criticized Hillary Clinton. They cheered when he talked about improved job numbers, booed when he talked about the Mueller report, and yelled “Tell ‘em Trump!” here and there from their lawn chairs.
Behind the giant screen on which they watched him, a few protesters held up anti-Trump signs and a Mexican flag, and yelled “liar” and other choice words at various points in his speech. They stayed behind the fence, and security only intervened once – when a man attending the rally tried to shake the protesters’ hands.oh, and they were so thrilled with him, they left after an hour: After about an hour, a stream of people began to head out of the arena. A few meandered back to the field, hunting for their folding chairs and coolers by the light of the big screen. President Trump had not finished yet
that was from WaPo, so it is a lie, obviously. The pictures taken don't lie! They were taken by a local guy.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 23, 2019 12:31:51 GMT -5
Yup. All those upper tier rows are full to the brim at the Amway Arena trump rally: Mess left by trump supporters outside the Amway arena.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 23, 2019 15:12:41 GMT -5
Hate to mention this, but Trump won with just these sizes of crowds. When you start posting pictures of the turnouts for the democratic challengers showing less than 200 participants we can talk. Until then, just sour grapes on your part. But the poster lied. Like trump, he lied.
If a Dem candidate wildly inflated his crowd attendance at one of his rallies, I would like to see the quote, along with the actual pictures showing he/she is a liar.
I don't want to elect another bullshit artist. I'm sick of this shit.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 23, 2019 15:34:57 GMT -5
Weren't we told by someone who allegedly attended the August 2015 trump rally at the Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala that the stadium was completely full and an equal amount of those who wanted to be inside the stadium were outside watching on big screens? Why yes we were. And the picture below proves it. Hate to mention this, but Trump won with just these sizes of crowds. When you start posting pictures of the turnouts for the democratic challengers showing less than 200 participants we can talk. Until then, just sour grapes on your part. Hitler won with big crowds too.
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 15:44:18 GMT -5
assumptions:
1) Trump is running unopposed. I am not sure that is a safe assumption. 2) Democratic field is going to quickly break down into 1st tier, 2nd tier and 3rd tier candidates. I think this is a safe assumption. 3) Trump's approval will remain below 50%. I am not sure this is a safe assumption, either.
I am not ready to place odds, yet. I would say that AS OF TODAY, the 2020 race favors Democrats significantly.
The two datapoints I am choosing right now are Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. both show Democrats with a 5-10% advantage. this is quite coincident with the head to head polling for Sanders and Biden. and no, I am not sure they will win, though they are the current first tier.
The second tier is Warren, Harris, and Buttigeig.
I am not sure anyone else really has a shot at the nomination, but I might be wrong. some dark horse could emerge and steal the nomination. but I would remind everyone that Trump was a first tier candidate from the day he declared. I see no reason to suspect that it will be any different for Democrats, though it may. by July 19th 2015, he was up 11%, and he never trailed again, except very briefly, and only in 4 polls, to Ben Carson, in October, and to Ted Cruz in February. Trump's approval ratings are useless. You know they are flawed as to electability. Generic ballot, maybe. I prefer some of the polls here right now. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 15:47:48 GMT -5
Hate to mention this, but Trump won with just these sizes of crowds. When you start posting pictures of the turnouts for the democratic challengers showing less than 200 participants we can talk. Until then, just sour grapes on your part. Hitler won with big crowds too. You forgot all the concentration camps he is running. This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 23, 2019 15:52:50 GMT -5
This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
Yes, the popular vote decided.
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 15:54:47 GMT -5
This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
Yes, the popular vote decided. Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades.
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 16:03:00 GMT -5
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 23, 2019 16:07:26 GMT -5
This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
Yes, the popular vote decided. Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades. Your statement has NOTHING to do with the popular vote. "Look! Squirrel!!" Kindly elaborate exactly as to how Trudeau sucked up to him. Thanks ever so much.
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 23, 2019 16:08:24 GMT -5
Hitler won with big crowds too. You forgot all the concentration camps he is running. This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President. You forgot the press is the enemy of the people according to trump. Turn the people against the only ones telling the truth. There are so many similarities between Hitler and trump it's uncanny.
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