thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 22, 2019 8:45:29 GMT -5
WaPo is reporting that Jay Inslee is dropping out of the Presidential race. There's a paywall so I can't get to the article. Shocking. I had him going to the end. 😜😜
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 27, 2019 14:04:22 GMT -5
update: the field has not changed, but Biden is now only up by 10% for the first time since BEFORE entering the race. the Monmouth survey is very disturbing if you are a Biden fan, and great news for Warren and Sanders. it shows them in a 3 way tie for first. the person with the MOST momentum right now is SANDERS. his poll result in Emerson (24%) is the best result for him in TWO MONTHS. he has now surveyed at 19% or more in the last FOUR surveys. Warren is back in 3rd place again, but still 2nd tier (and with a very good chance of winning the nomination). Harris has fallen to 4th and is now statistically not doing much better than Buttegieg. I am probably going to start another thread on the composition of congress, but it now appears that Democrats have an OUTSIDE chance of getting 50 seats in the Senate. there are four races that are dead heats, and only one of them is Democratic. going strictly off the odds, they have a 6% chance of retaking the Senate. but the odds are probably closer to 1:2, if you take into account the Democratic record since 2016 (which has been overwhelmingly favorable in close races). on the House side, they have about a 50% chance of maintaining 235 or more seats, and probably a 5:2 chance of maintaining the majority (as of today). I predicted in 2017 that Democrats will gain in the Senate. originally I suspected it would be one seat, and that is still my best guess. and yeah, that will not be enough to stop the GOP from packing the judiciary.
edit: Sanders' numbers are now the best he has had in THREE MONTHS. just checked. quietly, his campaign is gaining strength. I say quietly, because I would not have guessed he would perk up like this. he had fallen to third, and it looked to me like Warren was just going to keep right on going. but her momentum has halted.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Aug 29, 2019 7:23:35 GMT -5
Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has ended her candidacy for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
Mrs Gillibrand announced her decision to withdraw in an online video after failing to qualify for a third Democratic debate next month.
"After more than eight incredible months, I am ending my presidential campaign," she said.
The 52-year-old has been a vocal advocate for women's rights but her campaign failed to gain traction.
"I know this isn't the result we wanted. We wanted to win this race," she said. "But it's important to know when it's not your time, and to know how you can best serve your community and country."
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2019 8:45:55 GMT -5
Looks like the field is tightening up, but others might make it for the October debate. I am thinking Biden may not be the pick. Too many gaffes and even the non far left democrats have to be worried he cannot beat Trump.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Aug 29, 2019 8:51:54 GMT -5
Looks like the field is tightening up, but others might make it for the October debate. I am thinking Biden may not be the pick. Too many gaffes and even the non far left democrats have to be worried he cannot beat Trump. Yeah, I saw something for the Oct debate rules being the same as the Sept. debate rules, in terms of donors and polls. I don't remember if the Oct. polls numbers had the same start date as the Sept. polls or not.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2019 8:55:28 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today.
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 29, 2019 11:52:31 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today. Way too early to say, I think.
One of the candidates mentioned the other day on TV that there have been plenty of presidents who were polling single digits at this point in their races. The top three could fumble (or something damning could be uncovered about one of them) and suddenly one of the 2 - 5 % guys catches fire.
Curious to see if Joe Walsh will have any impact, with his primary challenge to Trump. Doesn't stand a chance of beating him, but could he damage him?
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2019 13:56:45 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today. Way too early to say, I think.
One of the candidates mentioned the other day on TV that there have been plenty of presidents who were polling single digits at this point in their races. The top three could fumble (or something damning could be uncovered about one of them) and suddenly one of the 2 - 5 % guys catches fire.
Curious to see if Joe Walsh will have any impact, with his primary challenge to Trump. Doesn't stand a chance of beating him, but could he damage him?
Dana Perino on FOX cable had a graph yesterday. In 2012 at this time in Obama's first term, Obama was at 43% of winning a second term against "anyone on Republican ticket" which was at 50%. I assume there were no real Republican names on the campaign trail at the time of that poll?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 29, 2019 14:50:07 GMT -5
Way too early to say, I think.
One of the candidates mentioned the other day on TV that there have been plenty of presidents who were polling single digits at this point in their races. The top three could fumble (or something damning could be uncovered about one of them) and suddenly one of the 2 - 5 % guys catches fire.
Curious to see if Joe Walsh will have any impact, with his primary challenge to Trump. Doesn't stand a chance of beating him, but could he damage him?
Dana Perino on FOX cable had a graph yesterday. In 2012 at this time in Obama's first term, Obama was at 43% of winning a second term against "anyone on Republican ticket" which was at 50%. I assume there were no real Republican names on the campaign trail at the time of that poll? Like I said, too early to know.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 29, 2019 14:58:09 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today. If Warren is the nominee Republicans will just incorrectly say the word "Socialism" 10 trillion times and people who don't know what socialism is will believe that she is suggesting a Venezuela situation. It will be hard to overcome that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2019 15:18:00 GMT -5
Way too early to say, I think.
One of the candidates mentioned the other day on TV that there have been plenty of presidents who were polling single digits at this point in their races. The top three could fumble (or something damning could be uncovered about one of them) and suddenly one of the 2 - 5 % guys catches fire.
Curious to see if Joe Walsh will have any impact, with his primary challenge to Trump. Doesn't stand a chance of beating him, but could he damage him?
Dana Perino on FOX cable had a graph yesterday. In 2012 at this time in Obama's first term, Obama was at 43% of winning a second term against "anyone on Republican ticket" which was at 50%.I assume there were no real Republican names on the campaign trail at the time of that poll? this is almost exactly where Trump is right now. did Perino mention that? I can't imagine he didn't.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2019 15:19:37 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today. If Warren is the nominee Republicans will just incorrectly say the word "Socialism" 10 trillion times and people who don't know what socialism is will believe that she is suggesting a Venezuela situation. It will be hard to overcome that. I would say that both Trump and "ANY DEMOCRAT" have 40%, and will keep it. this is a very rigid voting population.
so, they are fighting over the remaining 20% and yeah, that could be interesting.
these are independent voters. if someone could post demographics on them, I would like to see it.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 29, 2019 15:31:34 GMT -5
Dana Perino on FOX cable had a graph yesterday. In 2012 at this time in Obama's first term, Obama was at 43% of winning a second term against "anyone on Republican ticket" which was at 50%.I assume there were no real Republican names on the campaign trail at the time of that poll? this is almost exactly where Trump is right now. did Perino mention that? I can't imagine he didn't. Well, obviously it is true you do not watch Fox cable. Dana is a petite woman who was a Press Secretary for Bush II for a short time. She is a very intelligent political analyst, imo. She has an hourly daily show at 1 pm central, as well as a panelist on "The Five" at 4 pm central time. I think you might find her thoughts interesting. And yes she mentioned the comparison between the two, and pointed out it will change as time goes on. She just pointed out that everyone says Trump is done and he was polling just as well as President Obama did at the same time reference.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2019 20:02:37 GMT -5
this is almost exactly where Trump is right now. did Perino mention that? I can't imagine he didn't. Well, obviously it is true you do not watch Fox cable. Dana is a petite woman who was a Press Secretary for Bush II for a short time. She is a very intelligent political analyst, imo. She has an hourly daily show at 1 pm central, as well as a panelist on "The Five" at 4 pm central time. I think you might find her thoughts interesting. And yes she mentioned thae comparison between the two, and pointed out it will change as time goes on. She just pointed out that everyone says Trump is done and he was polling just as well as President Obama did at the same time reference. there is a difference, of course, and that is that Trumps number's are incredibly inelastic. IE: in the last 18 months, he has not polled higher than 45% on average, and not lower than 40%. even Reagan had more variation, though he was the next most inelastic.
also, 43% was pretty much the NADIR for Obama, but this is near the APEX for Trump.
that having been said, they are in very similar places, in terms of polling. that is true.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 7, 2019 7:34:47 GMT -5
The CNN global warming day was a success. For Republicans. The democratic runners have given so much raw red meat to the Republicans this week the race is almost over already. They managed to turn the farm states and Texas blood red in 2020 in one day. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-bite-on-burgers-and-straws-%e2%80%94-and-republicans-feast/ar-AAGV0dc?li=BBnb7KzNow we wait and see whether Bernie or Elizabeth try to take Biden out next week or leave it up to Pete or Cory to do it for them so those two do not lose more democratic voters from their base. I am welling to bet there is no question about cows and meat consumption that will be asked, as there has to be some damage control done this week.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 9, 2019 11:07:44 GMT -5
I am going to say this right now. I am no longer thinking Trump will easily win in 2020. I am not saying he will lose..... Right now it looks like we are down to three candidates. If Biden collapses early, not sure who becomes the number three candidate at this point. I think Trump could beat Sanders. I am not sure Trump can beat Warren, as he has lost too many women voters. Biden, if nominated will depend on the debates. Will Trump take him apart? I am not sure on that. If not, Biden wins, but any democrat who wins the nomination has to pick their running mate very carefully. It has to be a candidate that does not cost the Democratic nominee votes in specific states, and does not depend on the VP pick's ability to deliver any states. Just my opinion as of today. If Warren is the nominee Republicans will just incorrectly say the word "Socialism" 10 trillion times and people who don't know what socialism is will believe that she is suggesting a Venezuela situation. It will be hard to overcome that. I expect to hear the name "Pocahontas" will also be used just about as frequently if Warren is the nominee.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2019 13:47:27 GMT -5
I think she actually LIKES that nickname.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 9, 2019 14:04:36 GMT -5
I think she actually LIKES that nickname. The Disney movie of that name came out in 1995. I think a lot of younger people associate to it in a positive way.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 9, 2019 15:02:35 GMT -5
So, new scandal of the day, Trump and Giuliani may have pressured the Ukraine into investigating Biden's son's role with a Ukrainian gas firm.
At the end of last month, Trump threatened to withhold more than $250 M in congressional military aid to the Ukraine until they opened an investigation.
This is the best part - Trump thinks Biden sought to help his son's business interests, while Biden claimed he was acting as a private citizen and not in an official capacity.
This from a president who has given new meaning the word 'grift' as he's siphoned money into the family business his kids supposedly own and run (which is itself a huge joke). www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49640830
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 9, 2019 15:08:45 GMT -5
Warren overtook Biden in several polls for the first time.
I don't agree with all her policies, but I think it would be deliciously funny if a woman ran against Trump and beat his ass.
Not only would he lose the election, he would lose to a female. Oh, the horror!
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 12, 2019 9:01:50 GMT -5
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 12, 2019 9:07:43 GMT -5
$400 and I will vote for her twice!! in the same election. Am I becoming a great Democrat or what??
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 12, 2019 9:17:34 GMT -5
$400 and I will vote for her twice!! in the same election. Am I becoming a great Democrat or what??
Evidently she is trying to peel away senior citizens enthusiasm for Trump. She knows she has to get some senior citizen base to win, so bribe them. Maybe she could offer a cash buy back for Trump Baseball caps too. Say, maybe $200 for every Trump 2020 cap! I have a couple I would part with at that price.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 12, 2019 9:19:52 GMT -5
Wooooo Hooooo I'm in the money,, I'm in the money,, as I dance to the song!!!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 12, 2019 9:22:13 GMT -5
Now if only she will offer $10,000 each buy back for my"Registered" assault weapons,, Done Deal!!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 12, 2019 9:24:55 GMT -5
Off to work, to work, to work,, Thank God for this recession, I don't think I could keep this up If the economy was good!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 14, 2019 1:42:56 GMT -5
Biden's lead is less than 10%
Warren and Sanders are holding steady, and STILL tied for second.
Harris, Buttigeig and Yang are 3rd tier. I am putting Yang in there, because I expect his numbers to rise.
I don't think anyone else has a chance.
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 14, 2019 5:57:59 GMT -5
$400 and I will vote for her twice!! in the same election. Am I becoming a great Democrat or what??
Evidently she is trying to peel away senior citizens enthusiasm for Trump. She knows she has to get some senior citizen base to win, so bribe them. Maybe she could offer a cash buy back for Trump Baseball caps too. Say, maybe $200 for every Trump 2020 cap! I have a couple I would part with at that price. How much has President Trump subsidize the farmers? Seems like a bride to me...maybe they could set up stands and peddle MAGA hats.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Sept 14, 2019 9:35:18 GMT -5
Now if only she will offer $10,000 each buy back for my" Registered" assault weapons,, Done Deal!! Just curiouse...what brand and why have one?
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 14, 2019 10:11:05 GMT -5
Now if only she will offer $10,000 each buy back for my" Registered" assault weapons,, Done Deal!! Just curiouse...what brand and why have one? Maybe I own many unregistered guns, Maybe.... You know, not a single one of them sneak out at nite by them selves, shoot a bunch of people! I know that is hard to believe , but it is true.
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