Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,121
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jan 15, 2020 19:09:25 GMT -5
....and then there were 12. interesting development for Steyer. he polled in the 2nd tier in NV and SC (even though he is barely registering nationally), so he is going to make the next debate. strategically very smart. wonder who is running his campaign. oddly, Warren is having her best polling since before Thanksgiving. Sanders has drifted down slightly. most of the action is on the 3rd tier tho, where Steyer and Yang are continuing to bump up, and Buttigeig is continuing to fall (after briefly being a 2nd tier candidate in the first week of December). Biden is also sinking. he doesn't seem to be quite able of putting the field away. this race is still not very interesting. it is still Biden, Sanders, and Warren (with the latter two trading places for the last six months). in that order. the stupid Iowa Caucuses are less than 3 weeks away, and it is a 4 way tie. I think Biden might win Iowa, given the superiority of his ground game. NH is 4 weeks away, and Biden is leading there, too. Biden is also leading in NV. and he is absolutely crushing it in SC. again, as I said, not very interesting. Biden appears to be walking away with it.... appears.... The interesting thing about caucuses is that everyone's #2 choice is as important as their #1 choice. I am under the impression that Bernie has a rabid base, but not a lot of support outside that, which makes it harder for him to win against a wide field. I wish all primaries had ranked voting. Sanders does have a rabid base. Talking heads state if Sanders is eventually the nominee, trump will focus hard on his 'socialism'. I also heard talking heads state if Sanders ends up not being the eventual nominee, his supporters need to get behind whoever is the nominee and campaign hard for him or her unlike 2016.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,592
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on Jan 15, 2020 19:19:02 GMT -5
The interesting thing about caucuses is that everyone's #2 choice is as important as their #1 choice. I am under the impression that Bernie has a rabid base, but not a lot of support outside that, which makes it harder for him to win against a wide field. I wish all primaries had ranked voting. Sanders does have a rabid base. Talking heads state if Sanders is eventually the nominee, trump will focus hard on his 'socialism'. I also heard talking heads state if Sanders ends up not being the eventual nominee, his supporters need to get behind whoever is the nominee and campaign hard for him or her unlike 2016. I hope they can do that, but I worry they will remain too selfish to do so. Some folks voted for Trump instead of Hillary because they thought the destruction Trump would cause would hasten the coming of a more fairer society. I think they are wrong and forget the destruction part is much faster than the rebuild and overcome stage.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 15, 2020 20:30:09 GMT -5
Sanders does have a rabid base. Talking heads state if Sanders is eventually the nominee, trump will focus hard on his 'socialism'. I also heard talking heads state if Sanders ends up not being the eventual nominee, his supporters need to get behind whoever is the nominee and campaign hard for him or her unlike 2016. I hope they can do that, but I worry they will remain too selfish to do so. Some folks voted for Trump instead of Hillary because they thought the destruction Trump would cause would hasten the coming of a more fairer society. I think they are wrong and forget the destruction part is much faster than the rebuild and overcome stage. i think what happened is slightly different than that. I think they just stayed home.
Sanders people hated Trump, from what I could tell. but them staying home (in the Rust Belt) got him in.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 16, 2020 8:45:58 GMT -5
Sanders is the Trump of the Democratic party.
- Not a democrat - Far more extreme than the party should be - Uses anger to rile up his base - Will put the party in a quagmire that will take a decade to get put of
That said, at least he is a known commodity and knows something about politics. I don't think he will be as random and erratic as Trump. I don't think he will break laws or norms. I will still vote for Bernie if he is my option. I just hope the party stays a little stronger against him. That would be the only chance for getting the country back to a healthy place.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 16, 2020 8:50:19 GMT -5
Buttigieg can't draw hardly any black votes. Can't get out of low single digits, which will cripple him in SC primary. I thought he had a shot a month ago, but not now. Bloomberg looks more possible to me than Buttegeig.
for the record: I think it is a shame. the man is brilliant, and unflappable.
We haven't heard the last from him. He is so green. He has that "new politician smell". He will get somewhere with power. Maybe run again in 2032 or 2052!
|
|
imawino
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 17, 2010 22:58:16 GMT -5
Posts: 5,359
|
Post by imawino on Jan 16, 2020 9:39:42 GMT -5
Buttigieg can't draw hardly any black votes. Can't get out of low single digits, which will cripple him in SC primary. Maybe a Buttigieg/Abrams ticket would be a winner.
|
|
dezii
Distinguished Associate
Joined: May 18, 2017 14:26:36 GMT -5
Posts: 20,671
|
Post by dezii on Jan 16, 2020 9:51:26 GMT -5
I definitely lean left but as a realist, I am not in favor of extreme liberal wants....and a few of the Dems still in the hunt lean that way. Thus I don't believe they can beat the Donald, who as a incumbent with a very loyal base, will be a hard nut to crack.
Thus for me, possible being a senior, I still favor Biden as best able to take on the Donald and beat him...
|
|
hoops902
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 22, 2010 13:21:29 GMT -5
Posts: 11,978
|
Post by hoops902 on Jan 16, 2020 16:22:07 GMT -5
My take as an Independent. I need someone "like" Hillary (but not Hillary) that I can see and essentially say "Ok, they might be more left than I am, but not THAT far left, but they're competent and probably won't drag us into WWIII with some wild outburst". The real problem with Hillary was that she left such a bad taste in so many mouths that people just said "ugh, they're both gross" and didn't go vote.
Sanders and Warren are too far left. I like Yang personally but his UBI makes him too far left (I think I'd still vote for him, but I don't think he can get nominated or the win with that stance). I think Pete B is good but inexperienced and I just don't think he can win (though again, I'd vote for him). I just don't think Bloomberg and Steyer have a shot really (but maybe I'm wrong there), nor do most other current candidates. Ultimately, I think Biden has the best chance to win...largely based on his association with Obama.
I actually think it's not THAT difficult this time around. Convince people you're not a Socialist...don't say anything ridiculously insulting to people on the fence. Win.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,778
|
Post by happyhoix on Jan 16, 2020 18:10:20 GMT -5
Buttigieg can't draw hardly any black votes. Can't get out of low single digits, which will cripple him in SC primary. Maybe a Buttigieg/Abrams ticket would be a winner. I could see Buttigieg being the VP for one of the older candidates. Biden Buttigieg maybe.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,778
|
Post by happyhoix on Jan 16, 2020 18:14:14 GMT -5
My take as an Independent. I need someone "like" Hillary (but not Hillary) that I can see and essentially say "Ok, they might be more left than I am, but not THAT far left, but they're competent and probably won't drag us into WWIII with some wild outburst". The real problem with Hillary was that she left such a bad taste in so many mouths that people just said "ugh, they're both gross" and didn't go vote. Sanders and Warren are too far left. I like Yang personally but his UBI makes him too far left (I think I'd still vote for him, but I don't think he can get nominated or the win with that stance). I think Pete B is good but inexperienced and I just don't think he can win (though again, I'd vote for him). I just don't think Bloomberg and Steyer have a shot really (but maybe I'm wrong there), nor do most other current candidates. Ultimately, I think Biden has the best chance to win...largely based on his association with Obama. I actually think it's not THAT difficult this time around. Convince people you're not a Socialist...don't say anything ridiculously insulting to people on the fence. Win. You'd have to look long and hard for a Dem candidate who is half as bad as Trump, when it comes to possibly dragging us into WWIII with a wild outburst. Thought we were dead meat there with the Iran shit fest. Fingers crossed we make it to January and get someone less enamored with firing off nasty tweets at anyone who isn't 'nice' to him.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 16, 2020 21:13:14 GMT -5
Maybe a Buttigieg/Abrams ticket would be a winner. I could see Buttigieg being the VP for one of the older candidates. Biden Buttigieg maybe. Ah, diversity. An old white guy and a young white guy.
|
|
kadee79
Senior Associate
S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
Joined: Mar 30, 2011 15:12:55 GMT -5
Posts: 10,794
|
Post by kadee79 on Jan 16, 2020 23:14:57 GMT -5
Ah, diversity....one from the east coast & one from the central US!
Which IMHO is better than an old white guy & an old white gal!...or any other old/old combo!
|
|
weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on Jan 17, 2020 4:16:49 GMT -5
My take as an Independent. I need someone "like" Hillary (but not Hillary) that I can see and essentially say "Ok, they might be more left than I am, but not THAT far left, but they're competent and probably won't drag us into WWIII with some wild outburst". The real problem with Hillary was that she left such a bad taste in so many mouths that people just said "ugh, they're both gross" and didn't go vote. Sanders and Warren are too far left. I like Yang personally but his UBI makes him too far left (I think I'd still vote for him, but I don't think he can get nominated or the win with that stance). I think Pete B is good but inexperienced and I just don't think he can win (though again, I'd vote for him). I just don't think Bloomberg and Steyer have a shot really (but maybe I'm wrong there), nor do most other current candidates. Ultimately, I think Biden has the best chance to win...largely based on his association with Obama. I actually think it's not THAT difficult this time around. Convince people you're not a Socialist...don't say anything ridiculously insulting to people on the fence. Win. You'd have to look long and hard for a Dem candidate who is half as bad as Trump, when it comes to possibly dragging us into WWIII with a wild outburst.
Thought we were dead meat there with the Iran shit fest. Fingers crossed we make it to January and get someone less enamored with firing off nasty tweets at anyone who isn't 'nice' to him. Well gosh! I thought for sure that if anyone would drag us into WWIII, it would be the Montenegrans. Trump said so. Donald Trump has drawn fresh scorn for attacking Montenegro, whose people he described as “very aggressive”, suggesting the small nation could be the cause of a third world war. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/19/very-aggressive-trump-suggests-montenegro-could-cause-world-war-threeFucking dumbass.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 17, 2020 8:57:00 GMT -5
Is it possible that he is confused on the definition of the word "Ally"? He seems to switch the role of all stated allies from friend to foe. Maybe he think ally means 'against us' or something?
|
|
Wisconsin Beth
Distinguished Associate
No, we don't walk away. But when we're holding on to something precious, we run.
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 11:59:36 GMT -5
Posts: 30,626
|
Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jan 17, 2020 9:20:58 GMT -5
I saw a headline this monring, not sure where, that said the African American voters are determined to make 45 a 1 term president.
And FiveThirtyEight is running polls that ask people is they think 45 is better or worse than Reagan, Bush, etc. They're extrapolating those numbers to mean that 45 is really MORE unpopular that the standard polls are showing.
|
|
imawino
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 17, 2010 22:58:16 GMT -5
Posts: 5,359
|
Post by imawino on Jan 17, 2020 15:28:44 GMT -5
Maybe a Buttigieg/Abrams ticket would be a winner. I could see Buttigieg being the VP for one of the older candidates. Biden Buttigieg maybe. I think this is a potentially likely outcome. I'd happily vote for this ticket of course (as I would for any dem running against Trump), but would prefer a Klobuchar/Buttigieg ticket. She just cannot to gain any traction. I think that's too bad.
My father, who is a rare bird as an old white male rural North Georgia liberal, is the one who put Abrams in my head. For the candidates who really struggle with the black vote she could be a very smart pick as running mate.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 17, 2020 16:22:41 GMT -5
I saw a headline this monring, not sure where, that said the African American voters are determined to make 45 a 1 term president.
And FiveThirtyEight is running polls that ask people is they think 45 is better or worse than Reagan, Bush, etc. They're extrapolating those numbers to mean that 45 is really MORE unpopular that the standard polls are showing.
Let's hope they can get it done. But, Wisconsin doesn't have enough African American people to turn the state. Michigan's and Pennsylvania have below average ratios of black to white also. Florida has a chance, now that they passed the restorative rights bill, but they don't seem to be actually restoring any rights. States with very large African American populations might be able to turn with insanely high turn out. But, Georgia is doing everything they can to keep black people from voting. So it will be quite a challenge.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,121
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jan 17, 2020 19:02:16 GMT -5
I saw a headline this monring, not sure where, that said the African American voters are determined to make 45 a 1 term president.
And FiveThirtyEight is running polls that ask people is they think 45 is better or worse than Reagan, Bush, etc. They're extrapolating those numbers to mean that 45 is really MORE unpopular that the standard polls are showing.
Let's hope they can get it done. But, Wisconsin doesn't have enough African American people to turn the state. Michigan's and Pennsylvania have below average ratios of black to white also. Florida has a chance, now that they passed the restorative rights bill, but they don't seem to be actually restoring any rights.States with very large African American populations might be able to turn with insanely high turn out. But, Georgia is doing everything they can to keep black people from voting. So it will be quite a challenge. Yesterday, the Florida supreme court ruled restoring voter rights will only be implemented once certain ex-cons have repaid all fines and fees. A setback for some. Florida Supreme Court rules some released felons must pay off fines before voting
|
|
kadee79
Senior Associate
S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
Joined: Mar 30, 2011 15:12:55 GMT -5
Posts: 10,794
|
Post by kadee79 on Jan 17, 2020 20:53:25 GMT -5
Let's hope they can get it done. But, Wisconsin doesn't have enough African American people to turn the state. Michigan's and Pennsylvania have below average ratios of black to white also. Florida has a chance, now that they passed the restorative rights bill, but they don't seem to be actually restoring any rights.States with very large African American populations might be able to turn with insanely high turn out. But, Georgia is doing everything they can to keep black people from voting. So it will be quite a challenge. Yesterday, the Florida supreme court ruled restoring voter rights will only be implemented once certain ex-cons have repaid all fines and fees. A setback for some. Florida Supreme Court rules some released felons must pay off fines before votingThis needs to go to SCOTUS!
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jan 18, 2020 1:34:32 GMT -5
This needs to go to SCOTUS! No kidding! Sounds like you need to buy your right to vote!
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,709
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Jan 20, 2020 10:05:22 GMT -5
My husband does not like trump, but he is not as vocal as me. Well until this morning. We have a local fool and he keeps digging on face book. Hubs told me about him, the guy unfriended me long ago when I basically told him he is backing the wrong guy. He is one of the poor half his teeth is gone, thinks he is some kind of great leader or something. He is on stuff because noone else wants to do it. No he is not very well educated. He can't keep a job, his wife works and think she got a better job. He is trying to move up in the repub party, ought to get his teeth fixed though, but then typical. My hubs said his mom was a druggie and likely on them when she was carrying this poor guy.
This is one of the people hubs has tried to help. His basement flooded and water was standing all around his house. Hubs went up, dug it out, fixed drain pipes and all kinds of stuff for nothing of course, used his backhoe and truck. Another neighbor helped and found the drain on their washer or drain had fell loose under the house also, can you imagine the mess. The guy knows how to do nothing. And he is one of them all against any kind of socialism, jeez. I doubt he gets anymore help from hubs.
Anyway he posted on facebook today that someone like Shiff was not a patriot and a traitor to this country and should be hung. My hubs said does the guy have any idea of what he is saying? So he wrote back if you think I'm a traitor to my country you just come and try to hang me. I never thought he would speak up, he is getting fed up. There is another lady in town that told him keep his crap off her facebook. And he started the oh we can be friends and have different ideas, she told him get off her facebook and he didn't, she said I will fix it I just unfriended you, so its not just us. I said I told you these people are nuts.
I still can't believe hubs did that.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,121
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jan 20, 2020 11:16:48 GMT -5
I see this all the time on Facebook. Why Republican baby boomers are more likely to share #fakenews on FacebookPresident Trump wants to talk about social-media bias. Social media doesn’t help people differentiate what is real from what is fake, but “fake news” has been used by social scientists to describe fictional articles online and, famously, by President Trump, who uses it as a cudgel against mainstream media. Facebook FB, +0.17%, meanwhile, struggles to stem the flow of fake news and erroneous memes, and Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has said the world’s biggest social-media site is making progress in dealing with the problem. The good news for the 2.38 billion people who use Facebook: Most Facebook users did not share any fake news articles during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, according to a recent study but the small number who did were mostly Republican Americans over the age of 65. The findings suggest the need for “renewed attention” to educate “particular vulnerable individuals,” such as aging baby boomers, about fake news or misleading information that appears to resemble a fact-checked news article published by a legitimate and fact-based media outlet, researchers said. So why are Republican baby boomers more likely to share fake news on Facebook? One theory: As they didn’t grow up with technology, they may be more susceptible to being fooled. (Case in point: the variety of scams that have had success with older Americans by preying on their lack of familiarity with how computers and technology work.) Complete article here: Why Republican baby boomers are more likely to share #fakenews on Facebook
|
|
Gardening Grandma
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:39:46 GMT -5
Posts: 17,962
|
Post by Gardening Grandma on Jan 20, 2020 11:18:54 GMT -5
NYT endorsing Warren & Klobuchar
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2020 11:24:40 GMT -5
Biden has stayed flat for months now. Sanders is having his best polling since APRIL. Warren seems unable to build any momentum. Buttigeig is falling, and Steyer is rising. they are now tied at 7%.
nobody else has a realistic chance.
this is similar to the last report, with one exception. Sanders is closing ground.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,121
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jan 20, 2020 11:26:34 GMT -5
NYT endorsing Warren & Klobuchar Interesting you posted this. At the same time you were posting, I ran across this article. Give it a read. Matt Laslo: The New York Times presidential endorsement shows why newspapers must end the practiceThe media landscape in 2020 is radically different than even the vitriolic (and sometimes physically dangerous) climate that enveloped the 2016 election. Still, many newspaper editorial boards are going about business as usual by issuing formal endorsements of candidates in the Democratic primary — as the New York Times did on Sunday night with Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn, and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — before they will most likely endorse whomever wins over Donald Trump, much as they did in 2016. But editors nationwide need to wake up to the new reality and sit out endorsing anyone in the 2020 election. If the nation's newspapers do what they did in 2016 — when only one major newspaper, Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas Review-Journal, endorsed then-reality TV star and now President Donald Trump — they risk irreparable harm to not just their bottom lines but to their formerly essential place in voter’s lives. Americans of all stripes are now seemingly more convinced by fact-less memes than by thoroughly researched articles. The media has a credibility problem, and that’s what’s truly threatening the very underpinnings of our democracy. Complete article here: Matt Laslo: The New York Times presidential endorsement shows why newspapers must end the practice
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2020 11:36:45 GMT -5
the media does not have a credibility problem among Democrats and Independents.
only conservatives.
why should we worry about what conservatives think of the NYT?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2020 16:10:29 GMT -5
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2020 16:23:18 GMT -5
"President Biden, along with Vice President Buttigeig (or Klobuchar) and their spouses, attended the first of several gala electoral balls, as the festive crowds celebrated the beginning steps in a return to normalcy." Yeah, has a nice ring to it. it does indeed.
I have been thinking about President Biden, since it seems increasingly likely. I think he is a good man. and we could really use a good man right now. and since we can't have Obama again, he is the next best thing, imo. he will know how to rebuild things that Trump has destroyed. and he knows congress better than Obama ever did or will. and he is generally liked by people on The Hill.
it might actually be the best thing for the US, even though I personally probably won't vote for him. interestingly, in a 20 question survey I recently filled out, him and FOUR OTHER DEMOCRATS were tied at 11. that is not a very good number, but it does show that I have 55% agreement with half the field running.
|
|
countrygirl2
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 7, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Posts: 16,709
|
Post by countrygirl2 on Jan 20, 2020 17:04:24 GMT -5
The dummy wrote back that oh he didn't mean hubs. Hubs wrote back, you need to think about what you are saying, you are saying about half of the people in our town are like that. You make statements like that and don't realize what you are saying.
I said hubs you are being to nice. He is a total jerk another one of those if you are against abortion, you can tear the whole damn country down. They don't even have kids, because he has no insurance, can't keep a job, soooo.
But ones like that will never understand, very limited people for sure.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,870
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2020 17:07:13 GMT -5
The dummy wrote back that oh he didn't mean hubs. Hubs wrote back, you need to think about what you are saying, you are saying about half of the people in our town are like that. You make statements like that and don't realize what you are saying. I said hubs you are being to nice. He is a total jerk another one of those if you are against abortion, you can tear the whole damn country down. They don't even have kids, because he has no insurance, can't keep a job, soooo. But ones like that will never understand, very limited people for sure. I used to have more sympathy for the 40% than I do now.
IE: when Clinton called them "deplorables", I cringed.
now, the comment would fall between prescient and hyperbole.
|
|