Deleted
Joined: Apr 24, 2024 2:28:21 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2019 12:53:19 GMT -5
.... As far as coyote, I believe hyping those % of rare cases, doesn't really help, might even hurt. you don't seem to be aware of this so I want to point it out. We are posting on a small backwater message board. Anything that is said here has zero impact on the world. We're not the number one source of intelligent discourse, well read, planetwide ? All those posts painting the glories of our best president, ever, just wasted ?
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,449
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 9, 2019 13:08:41 GMT -5
you don't seem to be aware of this so I want to point it out. We are posting on a small backwater message board. Anything that is said here has zero impact on the world. We're not the number one source of intelligent discourse, well read, planetwide ? All those posts painting the glories of our best president, ever, just wasted ?
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 9, 2019 22:01:17 GMT -5
I am open to suggestions here,
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 9, 2019 22:19:26 GMT -5
Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing. How could we possibly know how many disappearances are murders? I don't dispute that far more people go missing in a given year than are murdered, but people go missing for all kinds of reasons. To say so many disappearances are in fact murders that the number of solved murders is "very few" by comparison is a bold statement that demands corroboration, and I don't see how you can reasonably provide any.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 10, 2019 20:26:19 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 24, 2024 2:28:21 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2019 11:39:43 GMT -5
Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing. How could we possibly know how many disappearances are murders? I don't dispute that far more people go missing in a given year than are murdered, but people go missing for all kinds of reasons. To say so many disappearances are in fact murders that the number of solved murders is "very few" by comparison is a bold statement that demands corroboration, and I don't see how you can reasonably provide any.
Source was my father's, sister's, husband. A sergeant for the Chicago police force, about 20 years ago. Since retired, also deceased. Mostly a local observation about the number of murders solved, with the missing persons addendum suggested by him, I'm thinking in hindsight. I am unable to corroborate. We have become a society of automatic liars, without the requisite proof/link. I definitely fit the bill on this one. Easiest to simply delete my post and change my position to what seem reasonable, as presented by the links proffered. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There's a lot of cops out there just looking to use their weapons to kill people in cold blood. The reasons are many. Racism, Hate, plain dislike of certain minority communities, even hoodies. These incidents are then investigated by the very same police officers who have moved up/promoted into Internal affairs, from being patrol officers. They tend to let things slide when questionable killings happen, because they used to do the very same things in the past. This is referred to as the police investigating police conundrum. What is needed is an outside body of people to investigate these things, because they are more qualified to know what is actually happening when on patrol, than a former street cop. This way we don't have these cold blooded killings being covered up by fellow cops. There are also a lot of cop families out there. Generation after generation of cops from the same families, working as cops. Can you blame them for protecting their own, from simple mistakes on the job ? (humor)
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 11, 2019 15:00:59 GMT -5
I don't think you're a liar.
It just struck me as one of those claims one hears in passing, doesn't give much thought to, maybe passes along later in casual discussion.
I've done it myself several times over the years on YMAM. It's a product of haste, not deceit.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,449
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 11, 2019 15:07:46 GMT -5
I don't think you're a liar. It just struck me as one of those claims one hears in passing, doesn't give much thought to, maybe passes along later in casual discussion. I've done it myself several times over the years on YMAM. It's a product of haste, not deceit. And something reasonable to ask for a link to back it up.
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 11, 2019 17:09:37 GMT -5
Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing. How could we possibly know how many disappearances are murders? I don't dispute that far more people go missing in a given year than are murdered, but people go missing for all kinds of reasons. To say so many disappearances are in fact murders that the number of solved murders is "very few" by comparison is a bold statement that demands corroboration, and I don't see how you can reasonably provide any.
He didn't say most disappearances are murders, he said most murders are labelled disappearances. I know you know the difference.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,449
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 11, 2019 17:43:11 GMT -5
How could we possibly know how many disappearances are murders? I don't dispute that far more people go missing in a given year than are murdered, but people go missing for all kinds of reasons. To say so many disappearances are in fact murders that the number of solved murders is "very few" by comparison is a bold statement that demands corroboration, and I don't see how you can reasonably provide any.
He didn't say most disappearances are murders, he said most murders are labelled disappearances. I know you know the difference. x=number of incidents labeled as murder y=number of incidents labeled as disappearances z=number of incidents which are labeled as disappearances which are actually murders is "z" larger, smaller, or equal to "x"? How do you know?
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 11, 2019 19:24:03 GMT -5
Actually the only question is weather there is a z category. And I know there is because of the number of times just in my area we have people go missing and the number of times their bodies are found later. In the last 5 years we have had 3 bodies, the victims of foul play, that I know of that have turned up in Northern Ontario that were previously categorised as missing. We've had a lot more turn up that died of comparatively natural causes. Just yesterday they found a couple that had died when their helicopter crashed last week. Ooops, I lied. There was that guy in Toronto that had killed 7 or 8 gay men before they caught him. His victims were "missing" until they found the bodies in the planters. Then there are the Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women. linkAnd the Pig Farmer out West!!!! Shoot, the more I think about this the scarier it gets. It is very, very safe to say there are a lot of people classified as missing that were actually murdered. A quick google proves it.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,449
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 11, 2019 19:59:33 GMT -5
Actually the only question is weather there is a z category. ... Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing. The claim is that most murders are labelled as disappearances. Questioning the claim is what Virgil Showlion was doing. Thus my restating it is a valid question.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 11, 2019 20:38:05 GMT -5
It is very, very safe to say there are a lot of people classified as missing that were actually murdered. A quick google proves it. No one is disputing this. In Billis' notation:
x = number of incidents initially determined to be murders y = number of incidents initially determined to be disappearances, that are in fact murders, but where no body or additional evidence ever surfaces z = number of incidents initially determined to be disappearances, that are in not murders, and no body or additional evidence ever surfaces
w = number of incidents initially determined to be disappearances but ultimately determined to be murders u = total number of incidents initially determined to be disappearances v = total number of incidents ultimately determined to be murders
We have (I hope you'll agree): u = y + z + w
v = x + w
We also have (you can verify this):
y + z >> v > x
That is, the number of people who disappear and stay disappeared forever (for whatever reason) in a given year is much larger than the number of recorded murders in that year, which in turn is larger than the number of cases initially determined to be murder (since some bodies of the missing are, eventually, found).
x, w, u, v are all known. x ='s claim (his name is oddly appropriate here) is that v/(y + v) is close to zero, or equivalently, that y >> v. In words, he's claiming that the number of incidents ultimately labeled as murders (v) is a small fraction of the total number of actual murders (y + v). This is the logical interpretation of "Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence [sic], missing."
However, even given x, w, u, v, our two equations, and two inequalities, you'll find it's impossible to validate x ='s claim with only the data and assumptions given. In particular because we reasonably have no way of knowing the ratio of y:z. either y or z can be as small as 0.
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 11, 2019 20:46:41 GMT -5
LOL ok, using your language...with what we know about x, w, u and v it is logical to extrapolate that y is larger than x. And that is what x= said.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 11, 2019 21:02:59 GMT -5
LOL ok, using your language...with what we know about x, w, u and v it is logical to extrapolate that y is larger than x. And that is what x= said. ...extrapolate that y is larger than v
Once a missing body and evidence of foul play is discovered, it counts towards the murder tally, same as any other murder. If that's what he'd meant, he'd have said "it is logical to extrapolate...". And he still wouldn't be able to defend his claim, except to say "I'll bet my bippy a lot of those unsolved disappearances are murders."
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 11, 2019 21:08:21 GMT -5
LOL ok, using your language...with what we know about x, w, u and v it is logical to extrapolate that y is larger than x. And that is what x= said. ...extrapolate that y is larger than v
Once a missing body and evidence of foul play is discovered, it counts towards the murder tally, same as any other murder. If that's what he'd meant, he'd have said "it is logical to extrapolate...". And he still wouldn't be able to defend his claim, except to say "I'll bet my bippy a lot of those unsolved disappearances are murders." No one but you would say it's logical to extrapolate without being forced into it by a discussion with someone like you And I will repeat, he did not say a lot of the unsolved disappearances are murders, he said a lot of murders are classified as unsolved disappearances. A number that is much smaller but still bigger than the solved murder rate.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 11, 2019 21:17:34 GMT -5
he did not say a lot of the unsolved disappearances are murders, he said a lot of murders are classified as unsolved disappearances I definitely don't get that.
If he'd said, "Very few murders are solved. Most are initially labelled as disappearances.", maybe. But then he'd be comparing x and w, not x and y as you claimed, or v and y, which I believe is what he meant. Ah well. Enough linguistic algebra for one night.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 24, 2024 2:28:21 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2019 8:44:10 GMT -5
he did not say a lot of the unsolved disappearances are murders, he said a lot of murders are classified as unsolved disappearances I definitely don't get that.
If he'd said, "Very few murders are solved. Most are initially labelled as disappearances.", maybe. But then he'd be comparing x and w, not x and y as you claimed, or v and y, which I believe is what he meant. Ah well. Enough linguistic algebra for one night. You forgot to add the quotient of how many times I posted, even to you, that I don't express myself well.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 24, 2024 2:28:21 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2019 8:46:37 GMT -5
...extrapolate that y is larger than v
Once a missing body and evidence of foul play is discovered, it counts towards the murder tally, same as any other murder. If that's what he'd meant, he'd have said "it is logical to extrapolate...". And he still wouldn't be able to defend his claim, except to say "I'll bet my bippy a lot of those unsolved disappearances are murders." No one but you would say it's logical to extrapolate without being forced into it by a discussion with someone like you And I will repeat, he did not say a lot of the unsolved disappearances are murders, he said a lot of murders are classified as unsolved disappearances. A number that is much smaller but still bigger than the solved murder rate. Your last paragraph. Thank you. You explain it better than I did.
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 12, 2019 8:55:21 GMT -5
No one but you would say it's logical to extrapolate without being forced into it by a discussion with someone like you And I will repeat, he did not say a lot of the unsolved disappearances are murders, he said a lot of murders are classified as unsolved disappearances. A number that is much smaller but still bigger than the solved murder rate. Your last paragraph. Thank you. You explain it better than I did. I don't see what isn't clear about "Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing." I think you did just fine.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 12, 2019 9:59:14 GMT -5
Your last paragraph. Thank you. You explain it better than I did. I don't see what isn't clear about "Very few murders are solved. Most are labelled as disappearence, missing." I think you did just fine. I don't see anything unclear about it either. It just lacks any basis in evidence. This is in fact to x's favour. If his intended meaning was "Very few murders are solved. Most murder cases start out as missing person cases.", then not only would his statement not match its intended meaning, the intended meaning is (I'm quite certain) provably false, not simply unprovable.
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 12, 2019 14:33:01 GMT -5
link
linklinkIt's more likely it is true than not. It was a reasonable comment to make and fits all the available information. You are nitpicking him for no good reason.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 12, 2019 16:24:03 GMT -5
This man said that the police knew of his innocence,,, If it is true , if he can prove it,, What should happen to them?
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 12, 2019 16:25:28 GMT -5
link
linklinkIt's more likely it is true than not. It was a reasonable comment to make and fits all the available information. You are nitpicking him for no good reason. The third link??
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 12, 2019 17:58:58 GMT -5
link
linklinkIt's more likely it is true than not. It was a reasonable comment to make and fits all the available information. You are nitpicking him for no good reason. Your links affirm that some missing persons are eventually found, and some of these are found murdered. No one is disputing this. It shouldn't be lost on you that your second link lists roughly 110 unidentified decedents found murdered and claims these are among "approximately 40,000 decedents [who] remain unidentified in the United States, [...] including murder victims and those who died via natural causes or otherwise". Meaning that (at least among the still-unidentified) only 1 in 360 missing persons eventually discovered dead is determined to be murdered. I totally disagree with your conclusions.
|
|
laterbloomer
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 26, 2018 0:50:42 GMT -5
Posts: 4,347
|
Post by laterbloomer on Mar 12, 2019 20:15:25 GMT -5
That is still more than the murders that are known up front. I don't know how many times I can repeat, he did not say most disappearance are murders. He said most murders end up classified as disappearances and all the available info supports that.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 12, 2019 23:39:57 GMT -5
He said most murders end up classified as disappearances and all the available info supports that. There were 17,284 murder cases in the US in 2017. For this to be "very few" of the total murders committed, there would have to be, say, ten times as many murders classified as disappearances, or 172,840 murders in 2017. But to be extremely generous, let's say "very few" means 25%, hence 51,852 murders classified as disappearances in 2017. Can you or anyone tell me whether more than 51,852 of the Americans who disappeared in 2017 were murdered? No. You have no idea. However, one insight we do have: when remains of missing people have turned up, among those who still remain unidentified, about 0.44% were found to have been murdered. This based on your own links. So let's suppose that tomorrow every single person gone missing in the US in 2017 is found, and that, consistent with this statistic, 0.44% of them are found to have been murdered. The actual percentage would be much smaller than this since it only accounts for missing persons who turn up dead, but I'm in an extremely generous mood, so let's use 0.44%. Then we ask: How many missing persons would there have to be in 2017 for 0.44% of them to be the 51,852 required for x ='s hypothesis to be true? This is easily calculated: 51852/0.0044 = 11,785,000 people. I somehow doubt that 12 million people were declared missing in the US in 2017. If we use less generous assumptions, the number gets even more absurd.
Now, I'm willing to grant that the ratio of murders to non-murders for missing people generally may be different from this ratio for still-unidentified decedents, which is the subset that gave us the estimate of 0.44%. This is another feat of generosity since I doubt the two ratios differ much. If we assumed the ratios were equal, we could only conclude that the claim is false--and not only false, extremely false. Hence let's assume the two, for some unknown reason, differ markedly.
That still leaves us at a place where even saying "available info doesn't contradict the claim" is generous to a fault. "All the available info supports that."? No. Not on your life. ETA: TL;DR for Weltz: numbers, numbers, math, logic, numbers... No, all available info doesn't support that.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 14, 2019 9:52:41 GMT -5
In cases where the video's have been held up,, only after lawsuit after lawsuit are they released, then and only then are the officers fired,,
And in very rare cases charged,, Why are the people that suppressed the evidence, destroyed the evidence, failed to bring charges against the officer, that is now being charged or convicted?
Why aren't they being charged??
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Mar 17, 2019 17:05:52 GMT -5
|
|
resolution
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:09:56 GMT -5
Posts: 6,975
Mini-Profile Name Color: 305b2b
|
Post by resolution on Mar 30, 2019 8:03:38 GMT -5
|
|