AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 11:31:52 GMT -5
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 24, 2016 12:07:52 GMT -5
I have to admit: your "monster vote" might actually exist.
Latest polls before the Brexit had "remain" leading by 8 points, well outside the margin of error for the actual result.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 15:11:45 GMT -5
I have to admit: your "monster vote" might actually exist. Latest polls before the Brexit had "remain" leading by 8 points, well outside the margin of error for the actual result. If Nate Silver and company were using the voter data we have from this election cycle the exact same way they are using voter party id data dating back to 2011, they would see it. Indeed, I believe they do see it- but I think they doubt it. I think they're set in their ways, and they cannot admit that something different will happen in this election than in previous elections.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 24, 2016 16:11:30 GMT -5
Or they aren't seeing it because it isn't there.
If you're allowed to post quotes from the conservative tree house can I start posting Salon quotes? I usually don't, because they are so outrageously biased towards the liberal side, I can't post them with a straight face.
But if we're going to accept what the far right sites are saying - fair's fair, I say.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 24, 2016 18:25:51 GMT -5
theconservativenuthouse is somewhat less reliable than you, Paul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 24, 2016 18:26:44 GMT -5
I have to admit: your "monster vote" might actually exist. Latest polls before the Brexit had "remain" leading by 8 points, well outside the margin of error for the actual result. If Nate Silver and company were using the voter data we have from this election cycle the exact same way they are using voter party id data dating back to 2011, they would see it. Indeed, I believe they do see it- but I think they doubt it. I think they're set in their ways, and they cannot admit that something different will happen in this election than in previous elections. further evidence that you have no idea what Nate Silver does. this will be fun to watch. edit: the last poll i saw on BREXIT showed it tied at 44%.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 24, 2016 22:15:40 GMT -5
Why on earth would I take the word of a Limbaugh-worshipping poster who has a picture of that incoherent moron, Bible Spice, as his avatar? Seriously, dude?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 23:01:51 GMT -5
Why on earth would I take the word of a Limbaugh-worshipping poster who has a picture of that incoherent moron, Bible Spice, as his avatar? Seriously, dude? Bible Spice... That's actually kinda funny.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 23:03:32 GMT -5
theconservativenuthouse is somewhat less reliable than you, Paul. Nate Silver was wrong. The Conservative Treehouse has been correct 100% of the time so far... There's one BIG prediction to go...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 23:05:55 GMT -5
And yet, BREXIT won by 8 points. Well outside the margin of error.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 23:06:56 GMT -5
As I said- I called Romney because of a gut feeling I had that the Monster Vote might be in play. It wasn't. This year, the data are there to back it up: The Monster Vote is engaged.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 24, 2016 23:37:35 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 25, 2016 9:34:43 GMT -5
Why on earth would I take the word of a Limbaugh-worshipping poster who has a picture of that incoherent moron, Bible Spice, as his avatar? Seriously, dude? Who is Bible Spice? I think it's funny by the way...just asking! Sarah Palin.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:26:27 GMT -5
theconservativenuthouse is somewhat less reliable than you, Paul. Nate Silver was wrong. The Conservative Treehouse has been correct 100% of the time so far... There's one BIG prediction to go... the only one that matters. so, are they predicting a 50 state sweep for Trump? let me know!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:27:39 GMT -5
online surveys are notoriously inaccurate. they are very rarely used by legit agencies for that reason.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:29:30 GMT -5
And yet, BREXIT won by 8 points. Well outside the margin of error. i don't recall posting the MOE. furthermore, there was 12% undecided.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:31:46 GMT -5
I have to admit: your "monster vote" might actually exist. Latest polls before the Brexit had "remain" leading by 8 points, well outside the margin of error for the actual result. you should know enough about the UK to understand why this happened (remember the Scottish Secession vote? we had a long discussion about it).
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 25, 2016 14:37:56 GMT -5
I have to admit: your "monster vote" might actually exist. Latest polls before the Brexit had "remain" leading by 8 points, well outside the margin of error for the actual result. you should know enough about the UK to understand why this happened (remember the Scottish Secession vote? we had a long discussion about it). No one had any reason to believe my Romney prediction. It was raw, unadulterated guesswork- it was a gut feeling. However, if you don't see the Trump wave building I just don't really know what to say about that. The Monster Vote is engaged. They're here.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jun 25, 2016 14:52:31 GMT -5
That's just more raw, unadulterated guesswork-a gut feeling.
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gregintenn
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Post by gregintenn on Jun 25, 2016 16:42:26 GMT -5
Why on earth would I take the word of a Limbaugh-worshipping poster who has a picture of that incoherent moron, Bible Spice, as his avatar? Seriously, dude? I never knew you had a sense of humor! Bible Spice..... You should let it show more often. I like it.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jun 26, 2016 5:57:01 GMT -5
yeah, high turnout of women and minorities who are appalled by the idea of having Trump as President.
Eta Trying to fix quoting mishap.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 27, 2016 15:50:19 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 27, 2016 16:06:43 GMT -5
It will be Warm Delight if Trump and his kind lose.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 27, 2016 16:32:18 GMT -5
yeah, high turnout of women and minorities who are appalled by the idea of having Trump as President. Eta Trying to fix quoting mishap. Let me splain something to you:
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jun 27, 2016 17:00:00 GMT -5
Cold Anger?
Hillary keeps widening her lead over the beleaguered, toxic, orange Bag O Crap.
Looks like the Cold Anger is nothing more than lukewarm irritation.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 27, 2016 17:03:25 GMT -5
Cold Anger? Hillary keeps widening her lead over the beleaguered, toxic, orange Bag O Crap. Looks like the Cold Anger is nothing more than lukewarm irritation. The polling models they are using are not capturing the Monster Vote according to Paul. Just thought I would beat him to saying it.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 27, 2016 17:08:24 GMT -5
Trump Tsunami voters don't own phones.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2016 7:13:53 GMT -5
Hell, Reagan would be hard pressed to be a Republican.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 28, 2016 8:15:39 GMT -5
It will be Warm Delight if Trump and his kind lose. You used the word "if" rather than "when" Glad to see you are coming around to the prospect of aTrump victory.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 28, 2016 8:42:38 GMT -5
It will be Warm Delight if Trump and his kind lose. You used the word "if" rather than "when" Glad to see you are coming around to the prospect of aTrump victory. There is no limit to the ignorance, stupidity, racism and bigotry of many Trump supporters. Look at those who voted for Brexit: if many of those voters had been well informed and their eyes wide open this past Thursday, then G.B. would still be part of the E.U.
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