adela76
Junior Member
Joined: Apr 29, 2011 19:15:12 GMT -5
Posts: 125
|
BREXIT!
Jun 24, 2016 22:27:37 GMT -5
Post by adela76 on Jun 24, 2016 22:27:37 GMT -5
people very rarely lie during exit polling. that is why they are the gold standard for vote verification. People lie like Persian rugs during exit polls, which is one of the reasons they weren't used for the Brexit. People lie predictably, meaning that pollsters can compare data to recent baselines, factor out the predictable bias, and wind up with reasonably accurate results. The last baseline for a vote of this kind in Britain was more than four decades ago, making it worthless. Hence, no exit polls. British reporting and privacy laws also played a part. Exit polls may be unreliable at times, but not mainly because people lie. It's probably more like a self-selection bias, people on one side or the other decline to participate in the exit poll in a non-random way. Also, if someone were to lie, the lie would be more like "no, my vote has nothing to do with immigration, it's strictly economic and rational" instead of, "yes, of course my vote is related to immigration, because I'm a closet racist who is afraid of brown people." What would motivate someone to lie and say that their vote was influenced by immigration concerns when it wasn't?
|
|
spartan7886
Familiar Member
Joined: Jan 7, 2011 14:04:22 GMT -5
Posts: 788
|
Post by spartan7886 on Jun 25, 2016 4:51:28 GMT -5
So if Gibralter, Northern Ireland and Scottland leave, it's not UK e it, it's just England exit... Does that play the same? in in other news close was only 600 down today... Wales voted Leave too.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 6:18:24 GMT -5
Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 25, 2016 6:18:24 GMT -5
People lie like Persian rugs during exit polls, which is one of the reasons they weren't used for the Brexit. People lie predictably, meaning that pollsters can compare data to recent baselines, factor out the predictable bias, and wind up with reasonably accurate results. The last baseline for a vote of this kind in Britain was more than four decades ago, making it worthless. Hence, no exit polls. British reporting and privacy laws also played a part. Exit polls may be unreliable at times, but not mainly because people lie. It's probably more like a self-selection bias, people on one side or the other decline to participate in the exit poll in a non-random way. Also, if someone were to lie, the lie would be more like "no, my vote has nothing to do with immigration, it's strictly economic and rational" instead of, "yes, of course my vote is related to immigration, because I'm a closet racist who is afraid of brown people." What would motivate someone to lie and say that their vote was influenced by immigration concerns when it wasn't? In some cases it's simply a matter of being embarrassed about voting a particular way. People think, "if I admit I voted to leave, the pollster will think I'm a closet racist regardless of what I claim my rationale is". This same factor manifests in the self-selection bias you mention, which I admit isn't "lying" per se.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Jun 15, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 7:07:39 GMT -5
So, everyone who said leave and immigration lied? And everyone who said stay and economy lied? ... Must have been an exit poll conspiracy.
|
|
Spellbound454
Senior Member
"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
Joined: Sept 9, 2011 17:28:42 GMT -5
Posts: 3,996
|
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2016 8:22:20 GMT -5
There was no exit polls......but although it was always going to be close......all the various pollsters got it wrong and it didn't go as predicted. I think some people may simply be more vocal than others........ Loud mouthed activists rushing out to tell everyone how they voted and drowning others out.
Or the sudden realisation that saying "no" to an open border with 500 million people......doesn't make you a closet racist It just makes you sensible. We simply don't have the infrastructure or the will to cope when so many of our own citizens are struggling. The EU has been told time and time again that we and countless other places were not happy...but with a system of 28 self interested countries, some of them very poor.... and all with the power of veto, it proved impossible to get any kind of meaningful change.
Europe are being extremely arsey with us and still trying to call the shots........even though our rights to negotiate leaving are enshrined in the agreed law.
Fine....If the German car makers give us a bad deal we'll do a deal with Japan.... We don't need French cheese and wine... we can get it from other places. They could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces. We still have a big market which imports more than we export. Cest La Vie.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 8:43:05 GMT -5
Well, it's the old people who voted for it... So they don't really need to worry as much about tomorrow... So, you are blaming the "old people". Nice. Many citizens felt 18 year olds were probably to young to vote and should not have been given the right to vote because most were too immature to vote "correctly" on issues and nominees rather than shear emotion. They were wrong about that, and you just slandered a percentage of the voters who always vote rather than a group who does not faithfully vote, unless the election is "exciting". Yeh, I know, making assumptions here....sort of like you. I am amazed how our children and now three grand children have progressed from the 18 year old stage to the mid 20's stage voter. Somehow, reality of events and people, common sense, and thinking kicked in between 18 and about 23 rather then shear emotion.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on Jun 25, 2016 8:47:17 GMT -5
And people lie in exit polls. And people are pissed. They voted their pocketbooks They were ok with an economic EU. They are not ok with a political EU. people very rarely lie during exit polling. that is why they are the gold standard for vote verification. How would you know that, because they said they were not telling a lie? I don't see any difference between that and the phone poll I did where I told them just the opposite of what I believed!!
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 8:48:05 GMT -5
There was no exit polls......but although it was always going to be close......all the various pollsters got it wrong and it didn't go as predicted. I think some people may simply be more vocal than others........ Loud mouthed activists rushing out to tell everyone how they voted and drowning others out. Or the sudden realisation that saying "no" to an open border with 500 million people......doesn't make you a closet racist It just makes you sensible. We simply don't have the infrastructure or the will to cope when so many of our own citizens are struggling. The EU has been told time and time again that we and countless other places were not happy...but with a system of 28 self interested countries, some of them very poor.... and all with the power of veto, it proved impossible to get any kind of meaningful change. Europe are being extremely arsey with us and still trying to call the shots........even though our rights to negotiate leaving are enshrined in the agreed law. Fine....If the German car makers give us a bad deal we'll do a deal with Japan.... We don't need French cheese and wine... we can get it from other places. They could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces. We still have a big market which imports more than we export. Cest La Vie. "no"to an open border with 500 million people" Well we may not have the same numbers, we are overwhelmed with 11 to 15 million illegal immigrants (stop calling them immigrants-they are illegal) and if we complain or demand action we are racists in our own country. Get used to the new norm of being a racist. Germany will work the deal on auto exports to you. They cannot afford not selling them to British citizens. They need the auto workers working to support all the immigrants flooding their country.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 8:49:57 GMT -5
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 8:49:57 GMT -5
people very rarely lie during exit polling. that is why they are the gold standard for vote verification. How would you know that, because they said they were not telling a lie? I don't see any difference between that and the phone poll I did where I told them just the opposite of what I believed!! dj never believed Trump would be the nominee. He told us that all the time. He believed his polls and exit polls. And yes, he will deny this.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 8:58:53 GMT -5
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 8:58:53 GMT -5
Last night one of the news stations was blaming Obama for the mess. They said Britain was pro-stay until he went over there and told them they had to stay in ther EU. The next week the leave movement started gaining strength. Evidently the Brits did not appreciate the President telling them what to do. We felt the same way about the King in 1775 Of course Obama is responsible for that.
He's responsible for our slow economy, our student debt problem, our trade deficient, mass murderers killing innocent people, trans people demanding to use the wrong bathrooms, the Atlanta Braves having a crappy season, the drought in the Southeast, and I hold him personally responsible for DH's car engine blowing a spark plug.
What do you expect when you elect a Muslim terrorist Antichrist from Indonesia to be POTUS?
There will be no happy children or sunny days on the planet until he's out of office.
I know you think this is a good joke here, but I would prefer you not quoting me when making such outlandish statements. I stated a simple factoid. It looks like you are saying I believe the crap in your response. Try just posting a statement without quoting someone making them out to be something they are not. I realize that was not your intent. I am not upset, just pointing out it taints the person you are quoting, and newer members may believe you are referring specifically to the person you quote.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Jun 15, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 9:03:53 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 9:03:53 GMT -5
Well, it's the old people who voted for it... So they don't really need to worry as much about tomorrow... So, you are blaming the "old people". Nice. Many citizens felt 18 year olds were probably to young to vote and should not have been given the right to vote because most were too immature to vote "correctly" on issues and nominees rather than shear emotion. They were wrong about that, and you just slandered a percentage of the voters who always vote rather than a group who does not faithfully vote, unless the election is "exciting". Yeh, I know, making assumptions here....sort of like you. I am amazed how our children and now three grand children have progressed from the 18 year old stage to the mid 20's stage voter. Somehow, reality of events and people, common sense, and thinking kicked in between 18 and about 23 rather then shear emotion. 44 and under voted stay.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 9:06:27 GMT -5
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 9:06:27 GMT -5
So, you are blaming the "old people". Nice. Many citizens felt 18 year olds were probably to young to vote and should not have been given the right to vote because most were too immature to vote "correctly" on issues and nominees rather than shear emotion. They were wrong about that, and you just slandered a percentage of the voters who always vote rather than a group who does not faithfully vote, unless the election is "exciting". Yeh, I know, making assumptions here....sort of like you. I am amazed how our children and now three grand children have progressed from the 18 year old stage to the mid 20's stage voter. Somehow, reality of events and people, common sense, and thinking kicked in between 18 and about 23 rather then shear emotion. 44 and under voted stay. Not all of them based on the celebrations shown on cable yesterday.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,754
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 9:18:48 GMT -5
Post by Tennesseer on Jun 25, 2016 9:18:48 GMT -5
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 9:21:56 GMT -5
Post by Value Buy on Jun 25, 2016 9:21:56 GMT -5
Think it will happen? I sort of like the ability of a do over, but here in America, do we want to do a do over every two years of an election cycle until we get the outcome we think we want?
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,754
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 9:27:48 GMT -5
Post by Tennesseer on Jun 25, 2016 9:27:48 GMT -5
Think it will happen? I sort of like the ability of a do over, but here in America, do we want to do a do over every two years of an election cycle until we get the outcome we think we want? Hard to ignore one million plus signatures. I can see a second referendum going to 'Stay'. Then a third tie-breaking referendum. Great Britain probably should have done it that way in the first place..
|
|
Spellbound454
Senior Member
"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
Joined: Sept 9, 2011 17:28:42 GMT -5
Posts: 3,996
|
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2016 9:50:05 GMT -5
I have heard that too.
Trouble is, many of us are idealistic Marxists when we are young and at University. Its all be a party, as we spend someone else's hard earned money (Until the money runs out)
Then we grow up. It dawns on us that Marxism doesn't work ...and its our own hard earned money which is either going to be frittered away by the feckless....or hoarded by those of influence.
Young people crying into their beer and blaming it all on old people is just sour grapes. Citizens are entitled to vote and they did.....The result couldn't be more clear. Its is how it is......Now get on with it.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Jun 15, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 10:07:04 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 10:07:04 GMT -5
Yes. Let's.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Jun 15, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 10:10:33 GMT -5
On the other hand, lower median income, less education and no qualifications also were the leave group... But I'm sure that means nothing.
On to the rewards of freedom!
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 10:56:56 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 10:56:56 GMT -5
people very rarely lie during exit polling. that is why they are the gold standard for vote verification. People lie like Persian rugs during exit polls, which is one of the reasons they weren't used for the Brexit. People lie predictably, meaning that pollsters can compare data to recent baselines, factor out the predictable bias, and wind up with reasonably accurate results. The last baseline for a vote of this kind in Britain was more than four decades ago, making it worthless. Hence, no exit polls. British reporting and privacy laws also played a part. huh? no- an exit poll was done in the UK in 2005, and it was spot on: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005 (see polling)
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 10:58:16 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 10:58:16 GMT -5
People lie like Persian rugs during exit polls, which is one of the reasons they weren't used for the Brexit. People lie predictably, meaning that pollsters can compare data to recent baselines, factor out the predictable bias, and wind up with reasonably accurate results. The last baseline for a vote of this kind in Britain was more than four decades ago, making it worthless. Hence, no exit polls. British reporting and privacy laws also played a part. Exit polls may be unreliable at times, but not mainly because people lie. It's probably more like a self-selection bias, people on one side or the other decline to participate in the exit poll in a non-random way. Also, if someone were to lie, the lie would be more like "no, my vote has nothing to do with immigration, it's strictly economic and rational" instead of, "yes, of course my vote is related to immigration, because I'm a closet racist who is afraid of brown people." What would motivate someone to lie and say that their vote was influenced by immigration concerns when it wasn't? it's also because of sampling error, and failure to account for absentee ballots (in the US).
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 10:59:43 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 10:59:43 GMT -5
people very rarely lie during exit polling. that is why they are the gold standard for vote verification. How would you know that, because they said they were not telling a lie? I don't see any difference between that and the phone poll I did where I told them just the opposite of what I believed!! you know that because, unlike most polls, you can compare to the actual results. this is really really old stuff at this point. i am shocked that it even requires discussion.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 11:08:48 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:08:48 GMT -5
How would you know that, because they said they were not telling a lie? I don't see any difference between that and the phone poll I did where I told them just the opposite of what I believed!! dj never believed Trump would be the nominee. He told us that all the time. He believed his polls and exit polls. And yes, he will deny this. first of all, i don't say things like "so and so will never be the nominee". i say things like "so and so has about a 1% chance of becoming the nominee". so, your first and second sentences are untrue. second, the polls consistently showed Trump in the lead, so your third sentence contradicts the first two. got a question for you: when someone lies about you, do you deny it, or do you just go along with it?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 11:10:08 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:10:08 GMT -5
Of course Obama is responsible for that.
He's responsible for our slow economy, our student debt problem, our trade deficient, mass murderers killing innocent people, trans people demanding to use the wrong bathrooms, the Atlanta Braves having a crappy season, the drought in the Southeast, and I hold him personally responsible for DH's car engine blowing a spark plug.
What do you expect when you elect a Muslim terrorist Antichrist from Indonesia to be POTUS?
There will be no happy children or sunny days on the planet until he's out of office.
I know you think this is a good joke here, but I would prefer you not quoting me when making such outlandish statements. and i would prefer that you don't make up shit about me. doctor, heal thyself.
|
|
Spellbound454
Senior Member
"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
Joined: Sept 9, 2011 17:28:42 GMT -5
Posts: 3,996
|
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2016 11:39:17 GMT -5
The areas of deprivation where most of the immigrants have been housed over the years......whilst the affluent, in their leafy suburbs... mostly voted Remain. That tells you far more.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,404
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 11:41:49 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 11:41:49 GMT -5
The areas of deprivation where most of the immigrants have been housed over the years......whilst the affluent, in their leafy suburbs... mostly voted Remain. That tells you far more. it tells me that the voters are focused on the wrong target. but that is a highly informative idea.
|
|
mmhmm
Administrator
It's a great pity the right of free speech isn't based on the obligation to say something sensible.
Joined: Dec 25, 2010 18:13:34 GMT -5
Posts: 31,770
Today's Mood: Saddened by Events
Location: Memory Lane
Favorite Drink: Water
|
Post by mmhmm on Jun 25, 2016 11:46:25 GMT -5
I really appreciate you sharing your opinion, Spellbound454, along with the opinions of others from England. I was for England staying with the EU but I can't say I could articulate why with any certainty. I don't live there and don't have the insight I feel is necessary to actually voice an opinion.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Jun 15, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 11:50:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 11:50:33 GMT -5
The areas of deprivation where most of the immigrants have been housed over the years......whilst the affluent, in their leafy suburbs... mostly voted Remain. That tells you far more. Wait... Who realized they were spending their money and decided to vote out? I'm so confused...
|
|
Spellbound454
Senior Member
"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
Joined: Sept 9, 2011 17:28:42 GMT -5
Posts: 3,996
|
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2016 12:00:57 GMT -5
It does look like that from afar but vast numbers, for whatever reason....have had enough of immigration....and that's a fact. They have been saying it for years....... but none in the ruling elite would listen. There is a disconnect.....which if anyone was shocked by it...... they should have gone outside London for answers.
|
|
jkapp
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 23, 2010 12:05:08 GMT -5
Posts: 5,416
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 12:09:51 GMT -5
Post by jkapp on Jun 25, 2016 12:09:51 GMT -5
There was no exit polls......but although it was always going to be close......all the various pollsters got it wrong and it didn't go as predicted. I think some people may simply be more vocal than others........ Loud mouthed activists rushing out to tell everyone how they voted and drowning others out. Or the sudden realisation that saying "no" to an open border with 500 million people......doesn't make you a closet racist It just makes you sensible. We simply don't have the infrastructure or the will to cope when so many of our own citizens are struggling. The EU has been told time and time again that we and countless other places were not happy...but with a system of 28 self interested countries, some of them very poor.... and all with the power of veto, it proved impossible to get any kind of meaningful change. Europe are being extremely arsey with us and still trying to call the shots........even though our rights to negotiate leaving are enshrined in the agreed law. Fine....If the German car makers give us a bad deal we'll do a deal with Japan.... We don't need French cheese and wine... we can get it from other places.They could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces. We still have a big market which imports more than we export. Cest La Vie. Wisconsin has a thriving cheese and wine industry - look for stuff from Door county
|
|
jkapp
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 23, 2010 12:05:08 GMT -5
Posts: 5,416
|
BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 12:12:37 GMT -5
Post by jkapp on Jun 25, 2016 12:12:37 GMT -5
Think it will happen? I sort of like the ability of a do over, but here in America, do we want to do a do over every two years of an election cycle until we get the outcome we think we want? Democrats tried that in my state when they didn't like governor Walker's administration...he won the first election with 52% of the vote and, after spending millions of the dollars on a recall election, he won by 53% of the vote.
Tell GB to save their money
|
|