djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 13:36:32 GMT -5
this is the big one. whoever wins this probably wins the nomination.
Democratic side: Clinton sweeps. the only states she has SLIGHT trouble in are Ohio and NC. when i say slight, i mean that she is a 15:1 favourite.
Republican side: much more interesting. let's review it state by state.
Florida: Trump is a 2:1 favourite- but the way he is getting beaten around right now, and the fact that Rubio MUST win FL creates some uncertainty. Illinois: Trump is a 2:1 favourite here, as well. he has not gained any ground in the last week, but he has not lost much, either. NC: Rubio lead this state in Feb. he is now trailing Trump, but only slightly. it is reasonable to assume that he will catch him. this one is going to be a nail biter, actually- and it is not really even being reported, because of all the attention that Florida is getting. if the primary were held TODAY, i think that Trump would win, but just by a whisker. with the kind of week he has had, however, i am rating this TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Ohio: Kasich did well yesterday (don't bitch at me, i know he came in last in 3/4 of the contests, but he basically polled the same as RUBIO), and with Trump losing a bit of steam, i think that Rubio cruises to a narrow victory on WTA Tuesday.
a name absent here? Cruz. i know, that is weird right- but polls show him running third in every contest here other than NC (which i see no way for him to win)
if this goes as predicted, Cruz loses every one of these, which puts his prospects back into question.
so, recap:
Clinton- 7:1 that she wins everything Trump- takes IL and FL (note: Trump is currently a 3:2 favourite, 3/6/16) Rubio- takes NC (note: Rubio is currently a 5:6 underdog, 3/6/16) Kasich: takes OH (note: Kasich is currently a 5:4 favourite, 3/6/16)
if Rubio also takes FL, that would be YUGE. i consider that very unlikely. in fact, given how badly he performed yesterday, NC might be a stretch.
of all the candidates, Trump is most likely to win all (4), Cruz is most likely to lose all (4). but i think most of these contests are closer than predicted.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 17:23:06 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCPwhy is Cruz tanking in Florida? since 2/22 he is down 8% in that same amount of time Rubio is +11%, Trump is +9%, and Kasich is +6% what the HELL is going on down there?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 21:54:16 GMT -5
lots of new polling out today. no changes, except i am upping Kasich's odds of winning OH to 3:2, and lowering Rubio's odds of winning NC to 4:5.
Hillary now as 12:1 odds of winning it all, due to polling out in OH, which she could win by 25%.
Paul: please answer post #2, as time allows.....
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 7, 2016 22:21:26 GMT -5
Just thought I would mention it: djAdvocate it helps bring one's attention to something if you tag them. I know I appreciate it when someone wants me to notice something.
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justme
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Post by justme on Mar 7, 2016 22:36:27 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure out who is most likely to win Florida instead of Trump and then voting for them. I don't frigging care who, just not him.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 22:38:31 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure out who is most likely to win Florida instead of Trump and then voting for them. I don't frigging care who, just not him. Rubio is leading the other candidates by about a 2:1 margin. he is your "not Trump" candidate. and he is within striking distance of winning, imo.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2016 22:38:32 GMT -5
Cruz is worse than Trump. But honestly, I don't know what I would do if I was voting R in my primary... The whole field is nuttastic.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 22:39:27 GMT -5
Cruz is worse than Trump. But honestly, I don't know what I would do if I was voting R in my primary... The whole field is nuttastic. i know exactly what i would do, and i plan on doing it. i will vote in a way that gets this to the convention without Dumpster Fire winning outright.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2016 22:40:30 GMT -5
Rubio it would be then...
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 7, 2016 22:42:33 GMT -5
Just thought I would mention it: djAdvocate it helps bring one's attention to something if you tag them. I know I appreciate it when someone wants me to notice something. i don't know how to do that. explain it to me. DJ-move your cursor over my posting name once I have posted it. You will see @tenn'esseer. (I am putting a single quotation mark in the middle of it so it does not tag me. You would not add a single quotation mark.) Now find a post of paul's or go to paul's profile page to see what his user name is. In paul's case it is palmbeachpaul. The ampersand would abut palmbeachpaul. Just like @djlun'grot. (Used a single quotation mark again so it would not tag you.)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 22:42:40 GMT -5
if i were in Ohio, i would vote for Kasich. here in CA, it will probably be Rubio. whoever has the best chance of starving Trump of delegates should be voted for.
a two+ way tie at the convention would be the best possible outcome, imo. they are not going to let the unwashed masses into the convention. that will put the GOP's interests in the hands of loyal Republicans, which is precisely as it should be. and if that happens, Trump loses.
odds of that happening? as of today, 40%. after WTA Tuesday, we will see.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 7, 2016 23:23:09 GMT -5
i don't know how to do that. explain it to me. DJ-move your cursor over my posting name once I have posted it. You will see @tenn'esseer. (I am putting a single quotation mark in the middle of it so it does not tag me. You would not add a single quotation mark.) Now find a post of paul's or go to paul's profile page to see what his user name is. In paul's case it is palmbeachpaul. The ampersand would abut palmbeachpaul. Just like @djlun'grot. (Used a single quotation mark again so it would not tag you.) I click the little @person above the reply box and start to type in a name. It will give suggestions. I just tested it. I typed in pa and Paul's name showed up.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 7, 2016 23:31:15 GMT -5
DJ-move your cursor over my posting name once I have posted it. You will see @tenn'esseer. (I am putting a single quotation mark in the middle of it so it does not tag me. You would not add a single quotation mark.) Now find a post of paul's or go to paul's profile page to see what his user name is. In paul's case it is palmbeachpaul. The ampersand would abut palmbeachpaul. Just like @djlun'grot. (Used a single quotation mark again so it would not tag you.) I click the little @person above the reply box and start to type in a name. It will give suggestions. I just tested it. I typed in pa and Paul's name showed up. Even easier! Just don't start the search with an ampersand.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 8, 2016 9:42:32 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP why is Cruz tanking in Florida? since 2/22 he is down 8% in that same amount of time Rubio is +11%, Trump is +9%, and Kasich is +6% what the HELL is going on down there? Since he has not been around, I will partially answer for him. It is not so much tanking, as solidifying around Rubio and Trump. Cruz did not really have any presence here before last week when he opened eight campaign sites across the state. Waiting for ten days before the poll to open his campaign sites is ridiculous. I think he felt Trump and Rubio would fight it out, and now he realizes Rubio is floundering and he can go in for the kill on Rubio. So far so good for the wife and I. No landline phone and our phones are northern Indian prefix, so we get nada from anyone. Surprisingly, we get nothing in the mailbox either, so they must only be chasing registered Florida homes here. fyi, we do have our own place in Florida, so we are on the tax rolls here.
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 8, 2016 9:49:54 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP why is Cruz tanking in Florida? since 2/22 he is down 8% ... what the HELL is going on down there? ... Cruz did not really have any presence here before last week when he opened eight campaign sites across the state. Waiting for ten days before the poll to open his campaign sites is ridiculous. ... So Cruz had more support before he showed up? Now that people are getting to know him, those interested in voting for him are becoming fewer and fewer? Not a good sign.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 8, 2016 10:00:50 GMT -5
... Cruz did not really have any presence here before last week when he opened eight campaign sites across the state. Waiting for ten days before the poll to open his campaign sites is ridiculous. ... So Cruz had more support before he showed up? Now that people are getting to know him, those interested in voting for him are becoming fewer and fewer? Not a good sign. Bills, I am wintering in southwest Florida. We do not get local news from anywhere north of Sarasota, or east of the Alligator alley area. Tallahasee, Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami might as well be in another state. Local news stations do not even give you temperatures for Orlando, Tampa or Miami. Probably because senior citizens are only interested where THEY live......... It is hard to fathom what is happening outside of Punta Gorda, Charlotte Harbor, or south to Naples here. There is nothing on the local news about Cruz. It is either Trump or Rubio. I get the feeling this area is Trump territory to be honest. Today there was a poll saying Rubio is carrying south Florida strongly (probably Miami area) Trump is winning in the I-4 corridor of Orlando, and Trump is slightly leading in the panhandle top of the state. The I-4 corridor is listed as the deciding factor, but I do not know that is a fact.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 8, 2016 10:16:44 GMT -5
So Cruz had more support before he showed up? Now that people are getting to know him, those interested in voting for him are becoming fewer and fewer? Not a good sign. Bills, I am wintering in southwest Florida. We do not get local news from anywhere north of Sarasota, or east of the Alligator alley area. Tallahasee, Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami might as well be in another state. Local news stations do not even give you temperatures for Orlando, Tampa or Miami. Probably because senior citizens are only interested where THEY live......... It is hard to fathom what is happening outside of Punta Gorda, Charlotte Harbor, or south to Naples here. There is nothing on the local news about Cruz. It is either Trump or Rubio. I get the feeling this area is Trump territory to be honest. Today there was a poll saying Rubio is carrying south Florida strongly (probably Miami area) Trump is winning in the I-4 corridor of Orlando, and Trump is slightly leading in the panhandle top of the state. The I-4 corridor is listed as the deciding factor, but I do not know that is a fact. Should have included the in my post. It was meant to be more a lighthearted (or maybe mean spirited) poke at the idea that being there makes people more likely to vote for you. But I do appreciate the insight you gave. It is always good to remember that talking about "Florida" or any state as a whole clouds the diversity within political boundaries.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 8, 2016 19:05:49 GMT -5
Cruz is worse than Trump. But honestly, I don't know what I would do if I was voting R in my primary... The whole field is nuttastic. I'm skipping the primaries. It feels wrong, but like you said, the whole R side is nuttastic. Who is the least worst? I don't even know. On the D side, I'm okay with either.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 19:11:57 GMT -5
I'm going Bernie. It's a long shot, but well... I guess I'd prefer him somewhat. I do feel like he's more honest, and I think his more extreme views will be easily moderated by the other branches.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 21:47:50 GMT -5
I'm going Bernie. It's a long shot, but well... I guess I'd prefer him somewhat. I do feel like he's more honest, and I think his more extreme views will be easily moderated by the other branches. if he fails, will you vote for Hillary? if you say no, i have an alternative for you to consider.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 22:43:46 GMT -5
Oh, I'll vote for Hilary. It's all about the court this time. I won't risk it on a third party unless they have a chance, and if I don't know their name now, I'm guessing they probably don't if that changes, I'll reassess.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 2:20:34 GMT -5
No third party is even remotely close to having a chance.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 9, 2016 10:11:36 GMT -5
Well, I guess that I should have dragged my ass out to vote last night after all. While the little I know about Bernie makes him my favorite, I want Hillary to win, and believe that she is better qualified. I think that it's past time for a woman to lead this country, women comprising at least 50% of the population. I was a kid when Geraldine Ferraro was the first female candidate for VP, and felt it was just a matter of time for women to gain equality in leadership. 30 plus years later, and still nothing. It's not just a matter of time when no one is ever good enough--forget the male disasters who apparently were deemed good enough all throughout the history of this country. So, no, gender equality has not been yet achieved, and it's not just a matter of time when the final barriers have not been breached. There needs to be a final push for it to finally happen. It has to be considered important to somebody.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 9, 2016 10:49:46 GMT -5
Frankly, I think women are by and large better at the art of politics than men. I think women are more likely to be team builders, and I read a study once that female CEO's actually perform better, long term, than male CEO's because the females are generally less risk takers, so they are less likely to run the company off into the rocks with an overly ambitious scheme (although you could make the argument that they would also be less likely to seize on what turns out to be a daring but profitable scheme, as well).
Don't know how that would translate to the world of politics, though, which requires a different skill set. For one thing, women who speak forcefully and loudly tend to get tagged bossy and shrill, when on the stump.
There is still a certain segment of our society, made up of both males and females, who expect women to be demure and polite. You don't find many demure and polite politicians.
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Post by Opti on Mar 9, 2016 11:20:49 GMT -5
Well, I guess that I should have dragged my ass out to vote last night after all. While the little I know about Bernie makes him my favorite, I want Hillary to win, and believe that she is better qualified. I think that it's past time for a woman to lead this country, women comprising at least 50% of the population. I was a kid when Geraldine Ferraro was the first female candidate for VP, and felt it was just a matter of time for women to gain equality in leadership. 30 plus years later, and still nothing. It's not just a matter of time when no one is ever good enough--forget the male disasters who apparently were deemed good enough all throughout the history of this country. So, no, gender equality has not been yet achieved, and it's not just a matter of time when the final barriers have not been breached. There needs to be a final push for it to finally happen. It has to be considered important to somebody. Its important to some of us, but it appears its still very important to more people to not have a woman as President. Maybe we need Trump in order to get a woman in office.
I was searching for times white or other women broke barriers before black or non-white men and didn't find anything. I did find this opinion, which is depressing, given black men were considered a lesser species just years before hand & broke the barrier way before women.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3084418
Black men got the right to vote FIFTY YEARS before white women did
1870 vs. 1920. The years the two amendments were passed.
I know they both face an uphill battle, especially in the south, If you want to know who is more likely to be elected, Obama or Hillary, just remember those dates. It's always been black males first, women later. Of course, it's always been men first, women second. I think because of sports, because of Tiger Woods, because of the music industry and actors who are black.... there's been some conditioning to accept black men as heroes. For women, "heroes" still must be beautiful first and young is definitely best. Older, less attractive women are not culturally acceptable, no matter their abilities.
For now, that's how it is.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:34:41 GMT -5
No third party is even remotely close to having a chance. that's not the point, imo. if nobody ever votes for them, we are stuck with two parties forever. if the GOP falls apart this cycle, we are stuck with one party. USSA.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:37:32 GMT -5
Well, I guess that I should have dragged my ass out to vote last night after all. While the little I know about Bernie makes him my favorite, I want Hillary to win, and believe that she is better qualified. I think that it's past time for a woman to lead this country, women comprising at least 50% of the population. I was a kid when Geraldine Ferraro was the first female candidate for VP, and felt it was just a matter of time for women to gain equality in leadership. 30 plus years later, and still nothing. It's not just a matter of time when no one is ever good enough--forget the male disasters who apparently were deemed good enough all throughout the history of this country. So, no, gender equality has not been yet achieved, and it's not just a matter of time when the final barriers have not been breached. There needs to be a final push for it to finally happen. It has to be considered important to somebody. Its important to some of us, but it appears its still very important to more people to not have a woman as President. Maybe we need Trump in order to get a woman in office.
I was searching for times white or other women broke barriers before black or non-white men and didn't find anything. I did find this opinion, which is depressing, given black men were considered a lesser species just years before hand & broke the barrier way before women.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3084418
Black men got the right to vote FIFTY YEARS before white women did
1870 vs. 1920. The years the two amendments were passed.
I know they both face an uphill battle, especially in the south, If you want to know who is more likely to be elected, Obama or Hillary, just remember those dates. It's always been black males first, women later. Of course, it's always been men first, women second. I think because of sports, because of Tiger Woods, because of the music industry and actors who are black.... there's been some conditioning to accept black men as heroes. For women, "heroes" still must be beautiful first and young is definitely best. Older, less attractive women are not culturally acceptable, no matter their abilities.
For now, that's how it is.
the history of that struggle is interesting. women were seeking universal suffrage at the same time as blacks. they were better organized, and seemed to have a shot at getting it done first. so yeah, women ALWAYS wait longer than minorities to break ceilings, because men have made it that way. Trump leads the male vote by a wide margin. so this really will be a battle of the sexes, if it comes to pass that he is the candidate.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 11:38:15 GMT -5
I have voted third party many times. No third party is even remotely close to having a chance. Until there is massive campaign finance reform and Citizen's United is turned on it's head, that's how it shall remain. The big money loves and owns the two party system and no third party is even close to having the funding to do much of anything.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:38:25 GMT -5
Frankly, I think women are by and large better at the art of politics than men. they are certainly better at diplomacy, which is hopeful, if you are anti-war, like me.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:39:23 GMT -5
I have voted third party many times. No third party is even remotely close to having a chance. Until there is massive campaign finance reform and Citizen's United is turned on it's head, that's how it shall remain. The big money loves and owns the two party system and no third party is even close to having the funding to do much of anything. my point is that i dismiss the attitude that it is impossible. if Trump or Bloomberg ran 3rd party this year, they would get 20%. it is more candidate driven than party driven, imo.
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