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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 17, 2016 11:43:56 GMT -5
this is pretty much the ideal scenario for defeating Trump, imo:
Kasich, Cruz, Trump
so, now that Rubio is out, we have a candidate to the left and right of Trump. now we will get to see how Trump runs against opposition that is essentially 1:1.
i would love to see some new national polling. but in the mean time, it would be good to note that Trump is below target on delegates for the first time since Iowa. now, it might all work out ducky for him. but it might not.
for the record, i think Rubio was taken down by Christie. that guy is a real Judas, imo. what he did may cost the GOP dearly this Fall.
but onward and upward. the next really big delegate contest is April 26th, but Arizona is also pretty big. in the latest polling, Trump leads by 13%, but that is with Rubio in the race. there is 40% undecided, as of today. more polling will be needed to sort that out.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 11:44:57 GMT -5
Trump predicts 'riots' if he's not nomineeRepublican presidential candidate Donald Trump predicted on Wednesday that there would be "riots" if he does not secure the GOP nomination, given his lead among delegates. "Once the battle is over, once the war is over, I think there really is a natural healing process," Trump said on CNN's "New Day," pointing to his business record. "I've gotten along very well with people." "I think we'll win before getting to the convention. And if we're 20 votes short or if we're 100 short and we're at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400 ... I don't think you can say that we don't get it automatically." "I think you'd have riots," Trump continued. "I'm representing ... many, many millions of people, in many cases first-time voters." Trump predicts 'riots' if he's not nomineeWhat say the Trump supporters here? what an asshole? Nah, more likely just a possible scenario with people who have strong feelings for their chosen candidate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 17, 2016 11:47:58 GMT -5
Nah, more likely just a possible scenario with people who have strong feelings for their chosen candidate. i was suggesting it might be a good idea for those feelings to shift a bit.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 11:50:00 GMT -5
Nah, more likely just a possible scenario with people who have strong feelings for their chosen candidate. i was suggesting it might be a good idea for those feelings to shift a bit. Got it now.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 17, 2016 12:34:28 GMT -5
I agree. The old establishment has to change. The Tea party was an awaking. Trump is an awaking. But I think Trump is a mistake. Tea party was the awakening. Trump is the end result. It's incredibly interesting to me that the Republican Party has finally found its spine and decided to unite to oppose something: The nomination of Donald J. Trump for the Republican Presidential candidate. One would have hoped they would have united and just as vigorously opposed the Obama, and his agenda.
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Mar 17, 2016 12:53:09 GMT -5
Ratchets Were those personal comments directed to me? Was the "you" generic or me?
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 17, 2016 12:57:56 GMT -5
... My second point is that I went through three drawdowns during the last 7 years. He didn't try taking my job just once, but THREE times! I was doing that work a long time, long before Obama became president. In fact, long before he became a senator even. My last deployment was spent wondering if I was going to have a job when I got back. Some people I worked with didn't - three people I knew got sent back early and had 30 days to out-process and separate. If you try to take my job, I'm going to try to take yours back...that's just a fact of life. I can't take Obamas but I can vote against his potential successor. ... I am sorry that you were personally effected but you are talking about a taxpayer supported job. I have no problem with President Obama working to decrease the size of government.
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Mar 17, 2016 13:00:36 GMT -5
billisonboard That is not my quote. Please edit my name out. That was Ratchets post. I see you got it before I posted. Thanks.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 17, 2016 13:03:32 GMT -5
Nah, more likely just a possible scenario with people who have strong feelings for their chosen candidate. Trump is the vessel for a lot of pent up anger in this country by people who have been systematically shoved aside for the globalist agenda in both parties. In spite of claims to the contrary, Donald Trump is creating an incredibly diverse coalition of lower middle class voters- blacks, whites, Hispanics, women, and basically people that show up to work, don't collect a welfare check, and don't see their lives improving anytime soon. If these people are edged out again in some sort of contested convention shenanigans, you better believe at the very least there will be a TEA PARTY II, and whether or not it will be peaceful this time around is anyone's guess. One might surmise they've tried it the "right" way, and where'd it get them?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 17, 2016 13:10:20 GMT -5
Nah, more likely just a possible scenario with people who have strong feelings for their chosen candidate. Trump is the vessel for a lot of pent up anger in this country by people who have been systematically shoved aside for the globalist agenda in both parties. In spite of claims to the contrary, Donald Trump is creating an incredibly diverse coalition of lower middle class voters- blacks, whites, Hispanics, women, and basically people that show up to work, don't collect a welfare check, and don't see their lives improving anytime soon. If these people are edged out again in some sort of contested convention shenanigans, you better believe at the very least there will be a TEA PARTY II, and whether or not it will be peaceful this time around is anyone's guess. One might surmise they've tried it the "right" way, and where'd it get them? Trump is hardly alone. Sanders is also a conduit for this resentment. the question is: which is the healthier channel? care to offer your opinion on that, or do you wish to appear to be "fair and balanced"?
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 17, 2016 13:43:24 GMT -5
Trump is the vessel for a lot of pent up anger in this country by people who have been systematically shoved aside for the globalist agenda in both parties. In spite of claims to the contrary, Donald Trump is creating an incredibly diverse coalition of lower middle class voters- blacks, whites, Hispanics, women, and basically people that show up to work, don't collect a welfare check, and don't see their lives improving anytime soon. If these people are edged out again in some sort of contested convention shenanigans, you better believe at the very least there will be a TEA PARTY II, and whether or not it will be peaceful this time around is anyone's guess. One might surmise they've tried it the "right" way, and where'd it get them? Trump is hardly alone. Sanders is also a conduit for this resentment. the question is: which is the healthier channel? care to offer your opinion on that, or do you wish to appear to be "fair and balanced"? If it isn't clear, my personal priority is restoring this country to some semblance of the constitutional republic it was founded to be. I think a lot of angry people are ignorant of the fact that our drift away from constitutionalism towards mob rule, and finally in these last stages of collapse- authoritarianism- is the SOURCE of their misery, and NOT the SOLUTION to it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 17:45:47 GMT -5
The Republican party is an organization with rules they make and follow. If you don't get to the convention with the number to win out right then it goes to the floor. There are uncommitted delegates also. Do you think that the Trump followers represent the entire party? Dream on. After the first round everyone will be bargaining like the caucuses to pick the best candidate. The GOP will pick their candidate, not the Trumpies. Do you really want this man to be president? I know our choices aren't great on either side. Here's my point of view on that - I don't feel like I've had a voice in our political process for the last 7 years. Every suggestion/bill/criticism that has come up against Pres Obamas policies has been shot down with a hailstorm of "stop stalling progress!" or "you're a racist!" or "too bad, we won so suck it up!" I'm about as middle-of-the-road as it gets when it comes to politics, so if I'm frustrated by that I can bet there are millions of Republicans/conservatives who are too. Not having a voice in your government brings out a lot of negative emotions in people - that's where all those cries of "dictatorship" come from - when you don't have a voice it IS a dictatorship. My second point is that I went through three drawdowns during the last 7 years. He didn't try taking my job just once, but THREE times! I was doing that work a long time, long before Obama became president. In fact, long before he became a senator even. My last deployment was spent wondering if I was going to have a job when I got back. Some people I worked with didn't - three people I knew got sent back early and had 30 days to out-process and separate. If you try to take my job, I'm going to try to take yours back...that's just a fact of life. I can't take Obamas but I can vote against his potential successor. The third point is the rhetoric. You want me to be open-minded and see your point of view? You can start by not calling me a "Trumpie." Or insinuating that I'm racist...sexist...homophobic...etc. You personally are pretty good about that, but it's starting to spin up. I'm sure by general election time it'll be a bombardment of slurs and insults aimed at anybody not voting for Clinton. We had our first post about it here by one of your compadres already..."There was a racist at a Trump rally...so I'm not trying to say everybody who votes for him is racist or anything...but hey draw your own conclusions." Grow the fuck up. Seriously. I grew up in a pretty rural area. It's not nearly as bad now, but I met a lot of racists in my younger days - and Republicans certainly don't own the market on racism. In fact, of the people that I could make an educated guess which side they would vote for, I would say racism was far worse among Democrats. All that tactic does is strengthen my resolve to make your party lose. At that point I don't care who wins, I just want your candidate to lose. As far as your question goes - No, I don't think Trump represents the entire party. I would say he represents the majority of it, since he's getting the majority of the votes in the primary. My own personal favorite was Rand Paul, and after him I would say Marco Rubio. I do like Trump better than Ted Cruz though.Anyone with half an understanding of the whole "separation of Church and State" thing, does.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 17, 2016 18:13:40 GMT -5
Trump is hardly alone. Sanders is also a conduit for this resentment. the question is: which is the healthier channel? care to offer your opinion on that, or do you wish to appear to be "fair and balanced"? If it isn't clear, my personal priority is restoring this country to some semblance of the constitutional republic it was founded to be. I think a lot of angry people are ignorant of the fact that our drift away from constitutionalism towards mob rule, and finally in these last stages of collapse- authoritarianism- is the SOURCE of their misery, and NOT the SOLUTION to it. that sounds like "none of the above". am i getting it right?
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 18, 2016 9:35:34 GMT -5
Kansas city Missouri was a hot bed of activism last night. I do not know if it will increase Trump's vote, but it sure will not help Cruz's totals. MO was decided by 0.2% not sure how that plays with your statement here. Trump was not favored to win Missouri. Cruz was. Kansas City had the demonstrations in the street. Trump wound up eeking a win in Missouri. Hence, it must have helped him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 18, 2016 15:04:30 GMT -5
MO was decided by 0.2% not sure how that plays with your statement here. Trump was not favored to win Missouri. Cruz was. sure, by ME. i don't know anyone else that said that. can you provide a link?Kansas City had the demonstrations in the street. Trump wound up eeking a win in Missouri. Hence, it must have helped him. dunno. if you say so. the only poll we had on MO showed Trump ahead significantly. i pointed out at the time that it was a new polling agency, and had a very small sample, so i could not determine whether it was accurate or not. so, here is an alternate way of looking at this: Trump was in the lead and barely won. now, if you have some OTHER prognosticator than me to say that Cruz was favored, i am all ears.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 18, 2016 16:08:27 GMT -5
the next part of the primary favors Kasich. he needs to do well between now and April 26th to be relevant that day, and he needs to be relevant to carry his potential nomination to the convention.
Trump will do well in NY. Kasich needs to do way better than 1%, as it is a proportional primary.
most of these primaries are proportional, and closed. that is not in Trump's favor. he will have a hard time getting ahead of target for the next month.
however, the states up for grabs are not really Cruz Country. he is going to have to do a better job of broadening his appeal, or he is going to do worse than Kasich over the next month. which, of course, is good for Kasich, but terrible for Cruz.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 18, 2016 17:28:44 GMT -5
Trump was not favored to win Missouri. Cruz was. sure, by ME. i don't know anyone else that said that. can you provide a link?Kansas City had the demonstrations in the street. Trump wound up eeking a win in Missouri. Hence, it must have helped him. dunno. if you say so. the only poll we had on MO showed Trump ahead significantly. i pointed out at the time that it was a new polling agency, and had a very small sample, so i could not determine whether it was accurate or not. so, here is an alternate way of looking at this: Trump was in the lead and barely won. now, if you have some OTHER prognosticator than me to say that Cruz was favored, i am all ears. I only have the word of CNN and MSNBC personnel who continually made statements that Cruz was leading in the Missouri polls. Trump overperformed in Illinois and killed Cruz in Congressional state votes which is the only thing that counts after the state totals. Trump had a massive victory in both states. Look at the delegate breakout for both states.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 18, 2016 17:31:36 GMT -5
the next part of the primary favors Kasich. he needs to do well between now and April 26th to be relevant that day, and he needs to be relevant to carry his potential nomination to the convention. Trump will do well in NY. Kasich needs to do way better than 1%, as it is a proportional primary. most of these primaries are proportional, and closed. that is not in Trump's favor. he will have a hard time getting ahead of target for the next month. however, the states up for grabs are not really Cruz Country. he is going to have to do a better job of broadening his appeal, or he is going to do worse than Kasich over the next month. which, of course, is good for Kasich, but terrible for Cruz. Kasich did not get a 50% majority vote in his own state, with a 5 to 8% estimated Democratic turnout voting in the Republican primary to vote for him. Take that away, and Trump won the state. Kasich will not carry his victory over to Pennsylvania and this state will be a huge win for Trump.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 19, 2016 1:58:16 GMT -5
dunno. if you say so. the only poll we had on MO showed Trump ahead significantly. i pointed out at the time that it was a new polling agency, and had a very small sample, so i could not determine whether it was accurate or not. so, here is an alternate way of looking at this: Trump was in the lead and barely won. now, if you have some OTHER prognosticator than me to say that Cruz was favored, i am all ears. I only have the word of CNN and MSNBC personnel who continually made statements that Cruz was leading in the Missouri polls. Trump overperformed in Illinois and killed Cruz in Congressional state votes which is the only thing that counts after the state totals. Trump had a massive victory in both states. Look at the delegate breakout for both states. then they were lying. i know of NO poll that showed Cruz ahead. and yes. Trump outperformed in IL. by a MASSIVE 2%. are you saying stuff like this just to irritate the people terrified of Trump, or do you really believe it?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 19, 2016 1:59:23 GMT -5
the next part of the primary favors Kasich. he needs to do well between now and April 26th to be relevant that day, and he needs to be relevant to carry his potential nomination to the convention. Trump will do well in NY. Kasich needs to do way better than 1%, as it is a proportional primary. most of these primaries are proportional, and closed. that is not in Trump's favor. he will have a hard time getting ahead of target for the next month. however, the states up for grabs are not really Cruz Country. he is going to have to do a better job of broadening his appeal, or he is going to do worse than Kasich over the next month. which, of course, is good for Kasich, but terrible for Cruz. Kasich did not get a 50% majority vote in his own state, with a 5 to 8% estimated Democratic turnout voting in the Republican primary to vote for him. Take that away, and Trump won the state. Kasich will not carry his victory over to Pennsylvania and this state will be a huge win for Trump. how do you know Trump didn't get 5-8% Democratic crossover? again, you seem to be either trying to irritate the Trump terrified, or you are not really considering what is going on.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 21, 2016 14:05:19 GMT -5
Kasich did not get a 50% majority vote in his own state, with a 5 to 8% estimated Democratic turnout voting in the Republican primary to vote for him. Take that away, and Trump won the state. Kasich will not carry his victory over to Pennsylvania and this state will be a huge win for Trump. how do you know Trump didn't get 5-8% Democratic crossover?again, you seem to be either trying to irritate the Trump terrified, or you are not really considering what is going on. That is the strange part of it. I sort of think they did not do that in Ohio, due to Hillary's convincing win there, but cable outlets all agreed to the number. Trump has been accused of garnering a Democratic cross over advantage in many states this year. No one, has denied this. Cable political news outlets all stated Kasich garnered that vote in Ohio. The argument was we, The Republican we, have to defeat Trump in Ohio. Why are the Democrats so afraid of Trump against Clinton, if they honestly believe she can beat him in the general election? I do not have to irritate the Trump terrified here or elsewhere. They are doing a damn good job of it all by their selves. They are polar opposites of the Trump movement backers. If you believe I do not have an idea of what is going on, I am surprised you think that I am that weak minded of the political thoughts going on with voters in America this election cycle.
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 21, 2016 16:08:31 GMT -5
I don't think they are. Polls show she would beat him.
The Trump terrified seem to be the GOP, and I don't blame them. His success is ripping the GOP apart. If he doesn't have a majority going into the convention it will be quite the shit-fest. Trump has already threatened that there would be rioting if he's anywhere close to the required delegates and he doesn't automatically get the nomination, but there is all kinds of behind the scene organizing going on by the GOP to try to make sure he doesn't get it. If he doesn't get it, you have a scenario where Trump takes his voters and leaves, maybe to start a third party run, which would guarantee that the GOP and their new nominee would lose. If Trump does get it, GOPers would either have to hold their noses and vote for him, or not vote at all, and Hillary still wins.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Mar 21, 2016 17:53:58 GMT -5
I'm not sure it's behind the scenes anymore happyhoix.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 21, 2016 18:32:01 GMT -5
I'm not sure it's behind the scenes anymore oped. Are you referencing happyhoix, rather than oped? oped has not been on here for at least two pages. TY
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Mar 21, 2016 20:02:33 GMT -5
Crap. Yes Sorry happyhoix
I tried to edit and got phone spam. Will try sgain in a couple of minutes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 21, 2016 20:22:08 GMT -5
how do you know Trump didn't get 5-8% Democratic crossover?again, you seem to be either trying to irritate the Trump terrified, or you are not really considering what is going on. That is the strange part of it. I sort of think they did not do that in Ohio, due to Hillary's convincing win there, but cable outlets all agreed to the number. Trump has been accused of garnering a Democratic cross over advantage in many states this year. No one, has denied this. Cable political news outlets all stated Kasich garnered that vote in Ohio. The argument was we, The Republican we, have to defeat Trump in Ohio. Why are the Democrats so afraid of Trump against Clinton, if they honestly believe she can beat him in the general election? I do not have to irritate the Trump terrified here or elsewhere. They are doing a damn good job of it all by their selves. They are polar opposites of the Trump movement backers. If you believe I do not have an idea of what is going on, I am surprised you think that I am that weak minded of the political thoughts going on with voters in America this election cycle. i would never call you "weak minded", but it doesn't appear to me that you are seeing how Kasich or even Romney could win the nomination. of course the same might be said for me, if i am wrong about all of this. maybe i am just misreading the election, and Trump is going to be coronated. but i think he is in for a huge fight in the primary, and an even bigger one if he gets past it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 21, 2016 20:27:44 GMT -5
I don't think they are. Polls show she would beat him.
The Trump terrified seem to be the GOP, and I don't blame them. His success is ripping the GOP apart. If he doesn't have a majority going into the convention it will be quite the shit-fest. Trump has already threatened that there would be rioting if he's anywhere close to the required delegates and he doesn't automatically get the nomination, but there is all kinds of behind the scene organizing going on by the GOP to try to make sure he doesn't get it. If he doesn't get it, you have a scenario where Trump takes his voters and leaves, maybe to start a third party run, which would guarantee that the GOP and their new nominee would lose. If Trump does get it, GOPers would either have to hold their noses and vote for him, or not vote at all, and Hillary still wins.
bingo. i am almost as worried about what happens AFTER the election as before it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 21, 2016 22:17:28 GMT -5
Here is the latest polling average: Trump 40 +13 Cruz 27 +9 Kasich 19 the latest (2) polls are rather interesting. the CBS poll shows Trump +11% from a month ago. however, it also shows Cruz +8% and Kasich +9%- in other words, they are all gaining ground, so it is hard to discern what it says about how each candidate is doing. the CNN/ORC poll is more indicative. if you look back on this thread, this poll was an outlier when it showed Trump WAY up 3 weeks ago. since that time, Trump has fallen 3% in the survey, Cruz is up 11%, and Kasich is up 14%. so, these two polls are showing two fairly different things, and we really need a third poll to help us understand what is going on. what is clear is this, however: Cruz and Kasich are way up from a month ago. The trend for Trump is less certain, but appears to be up, as well- just by a smaller amount. Kasich is approximately where Rubio was when he dropped out. you know what that got him: some very minor wins. Cruz is at a level previously only reached by Trump. if anyone is going to give him trouble, it is Cruz. Cruz stands to clobber Trump tomorrow in Utah. Trump stands to clobber Cruz in Arizona. however, since Arizona is WTA, Trump is going to win the majority of delegates tomorrow, and increase his lead over Cruz. Trump's target is 789. he is not going to hit it. i sense that y'all are going to get tired of hearing me say that.
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 22, 2016 7:02:57 GMT -5
I'm not sure it's behind the scenes anymore happyhoix. That's true. They've been openly trying to talk Paul Ryan into accepting the nomination at the convention.
And Romney openly asked the GOP voters to vote for Rubio in Florida and Kaisch in Ohio, to thwart Trump.
Next step might be arm wrestling - I suggest the GOP use Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican who is apparently not a fan of the Donald.
nypost.com/2016/03/19/arnold-schwarzenegger-walks-out-of-interview-over-trump-question/
I don't think Trump would be the winning winner of that particular deal.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 22, 2016 8:02:14 GMT -5
You win 16 states, What do you get? A delegate shorter And deeper in debt.
Mitt Romney, don't you call me 'Cause I can't go, I've got no chance Says the CBS poll.
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