bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Oct 22, 2015 15:49:37 GMT -5
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2 Thirteen weeks ending October 12, 2015 from thirteen weeks ending: July 13, 2015 (13 weeks previous).............. 7.3 ...................6.4 Apr. 13, 2015 (26 weeks previous).............. 4.5 ....................5.3 Oct. 13, 2014 (52 weeks previous) ................7.4.................... 5.9 A+++++,   My mother  and I used to call the NYSE and OTC markets Lost Wages EAST!! It is like the story of the two riverboat gamblers talking about the lay over at a very shifty town; A:These tables are crooked. B: Yes, I know but it is the only game in town.  If true then build your own game!! and a real table!! You will have all the action by sun set.  With HFT killing the game I have chosen to stop trading after I get all my money back!! I call this Expert 50/50. Low cost with little taxes and no broker fees. If the SFFRB MODEL TARGET M1= GDP GROWTH + TARGET INFLATION WERE TRUE AND TARGET INFLATION IS 2% THEN GDP GROWTH SHOULD = 5.4%. ON THE OTHER HAND M3 CORRELATION TO DJIA IS ABOUT 99% WITH THE LAST M3 GROWTH OF 0.2% THAT IS BAD NEWS FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS ( 9MONTHS-15 MONTHS) !! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt  PS:KASH IS KING  |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 22, 2015 23:43:56 GMT -5
, And now SE is sending wages back!  Great analogy and perfect description of what is going on. Best part is, hard Maple is some of the strongest lumber their is for a family table to pass down. Yes, debt is still the biggest factor in growth, and the skeleton krew will keep things above board.... Math.. "The school of life" stops the bleeding on the bottom line. Then we are back to M1=GDP+inflation?? God bless yours, mine, and ours, P.S. I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU MEAN, DUDE!
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Oct 23, 2015 20:57:17 GMT -5
, And now SE is sending wages back! Great analogy and perfect description of what is going on. Best part is, hard Maple is some of the strongest lumber their is for a family table to pass down. Yes, debt is still the biggest factor in growth, and the skeleton krew will keep things above board.... Math.. "The school of life" stops the bleeding on the bottom line. Then we are back to M1=GDP+inflation?? God bless yours, mine, and ours, P.S. I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU MEAN, DUDE! The JAL has lots of hard wood Legumes that flower and produce beans . |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 24, 2015 13:48:23 GMT -5
, And now SE is sending wages back! Great analogy and perfect description of what is going on. Best part is, hard Maple is some of the strongest lumber their is for a family table to pass down. Yes, debt is still the biggest factor in growth, and the skeleton krew will keep things above board.... Math.. "The school of life" stops the bleeding on the bottom line. Then we are back to M1=GDP+inflation?? God bless yours, mine, and ours, P.S. I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU MEAN, DUDE! The JAL has lots of hard wood Legumes that flower and produce beans . Damn straight, mesquite - the bean - BBQ with a nice new Maple glaze! |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Oct 24, 2015 14:57:00 GMT -5
A+++++ This is my Grandfather story about Inflation: the thereat in KNIGHT’S armour. Some still like gold for this reason : I like wine in free bottles. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt The Duke's two Sons There was a very rich but old Duke that lived on the French and German boarder whom was known for great Red Wine blends. He iced his wines so the alcohol content and flavor would concentrate. His collection of wine bottles from around the world was massive. The oldest of the two princes was very Conservative and only wanted the very best sovereign bonds. He sold the castle with the vines and massive wine cast to the younger brother. The wine was good but at first only paid the interest on the loans. Every year the bonds were worth less and less. After 7 years the bottles in the wine cellar were worth more then the bonds the older Prince held. By the 8th year the younger prince was debt free and in need of an account to run his business. Who else was he to hire but his brother. The name I know:Duke Fredrick Wassweiler; The brothers were know as Fredrick II and Robert aka BOB. The story ends in Blood of WWI. The land is now part of Luxembourg. The stories I have heard about Germany was they had to use wheel barrels to carry the money to the store.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 25, 2015 10:04:35 GMT -5
Hahah... I should have read past the first two lines, could have answered this last night no prob. You're lovin' the story of the TWO sons, eh ? Yeah, my boys are lucky to have bros, something I always thought would be cool to have.. I think inflation was one problem, however, I think the other big thing was chronic long term unemployment. We are seeing the same thing right now. Pissed off youth all across Europe this time though, and the politicians are trying to say these "refugees" are going to need jobs.... My Great Grandfather and his brother(on my dad's side) came through Ellis Island in about 1903.. As you know, they being from the low lands in Switzerland I think they seen what was coming and didn't want to follow in the family business. They definitely weren't farmers before, because anyone that knew anything about farming wouldn't have moved to northern Saskatchewan to do it - they made a decent living in the mills though. I think it speaks to how the underlying issues were building years before in the youth and opportunity. As you say, just a thought. God bless, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 8, 2015 18:01:06 GMT -5
Hahah... I should have read past the first two lines, could have answered this last night no prob. You're lovin' the story of the TWO sons, eh ? Yeah, my boys are lucky to have bros, something I always thought would be cool to have.. I think inflation was one problem, however, I think the other big thing was chronic long term unemployment. We are seeing the same thing right now. Pissed off youth all across Europe this time though, and the politicians are trying to say these "refugees" are going to need jobs.... My Great Grandfather and his brother(on my dad's side) came through Ellis Island in about 1903.. As you know, they being from the low lands in Switzerland I think they seen what was coming and didn't want to follow in the family business. They definitely weren't farmers before, because anyone that knew anything about farming wouldn't have moved to northern Saskatchewan to do it - they made a decent living in the mills though. I think it speaks to how the underlying issues were building years before in the youth and opportunity. As you say, just a thought. God bless, A++++, Again stock Market RIDK risk is higher then, return a determined by MMXVI-Alpha. So every $$$ invested at this price may lose 28.20 cents on the stock-market. Bond market is looking better then stocks. My next development on the MMXVI system will have more on 30 year T-Bonds and three stocks. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 8, 2015 18:31:02 GMT -5
Hahah... I should have read past the first two lines, could have answered this last night no prob. You're lovin' the story of the TWO sons, eh ? Yeah, my boys are lucky to have bros, something I always thought would be cool to have.. I think inflation was one problem, however, I think the other big thing was chronic long term unemployment. We are seeing the same thing right now. Pissed off youth all across Europe this time though, and the politicians are trying to say these "refugees" are going to need jobs.... My Great Grandfather and his brother(on my dad's side) came through Ellis Island in about 1903.. As you know, they being from the low lands in Switzerland I think they seen what was coming and didn't want to follow in the family business. They definitely weren't farmers before, because anyone that knew anything about farming wouldn't have moved to northern Saskatchewan to do it - they made a decent living in the mills though. I think it speaks to how the underlying issues were building years before in the youth and opportunity. As you say, just a thought. God bless, A++++, Again stock Market RIDK risk is higher then, return a determined by MMXVI-Alpha. So every $$$ invested at this price may lose 28.20 cents on the stock-market. Bond market is looking better then stocks. My next development on the MMXVI system will have more on 30 year T-Bonds and three stocks. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt , The bond market might be looking good, but the House of Lendrum is where I live!! Now it's my turn to play a little hardball; I have been thinking about MMXVI quite a bit over the last couple days. Again... once we are in the same office, balance we will. God bless the 7th, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 11, 2015 19:10:29 GMT -5
Interesting action: I rebalanced by retirement funds today by selling Growth and Small caps and buying long term bond. In the past Ihave done better with bonds then stocks. I used to write uncovered puts with T-Bonds being worth 90% cash. We are looking more and more like a decline GDP: Bonds are the house we live in. Just a thought Bruce Duke-Lendrum |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 12, 2015 10:57:26 GMT -5
Interesting action: I rebalanced by retirement funds today by selling Growth and Small caps and buying long term bond. In the past Ihave done better with bonds then stocks. I used to write uncovered puts with T-Bonds being worth 90% cash. We are looking more and more like a decline GDP: Bonds are the house we live in. Just a thought Bruce Duke-Lendrum How awesome is it going to be when we get the equation worked out into MM form?? From MM, song and art.... to SUPER IRON Math Model to, THE equation.. |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 12, 2015 16:22:24 GMT -5
Interesting action: I rebalanced by retirement funds today by selling Growth and Small caps and buying long term bond. In the past Ihave done better with bonds then stocks. I used to write uncovered puts with T-Bonds being worth 90% cash. We are looking more and more like a decline GDP: Bonds are the house we live in. Just a thought Bruce Duke-Lendrum How awesome is it going to be when we get the equation worked out into MM form?? From MM, song and art.... to SUPER IRON Math Model to, THE equation.. A+++++, We exchanged Growth and Small caps yesterday from Expert 50/50 signal for T-Bonds ( Tax free as this is one of my three retirement funds).. I hope tp teach advance economics next year and one factor I love is the effect of lower cost investing. More later on the development of the next generation Mathematica model. God Bless you and ours: as always : Just a thought, Bruce Duke-Lendrum, MBA |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 12, 2015 19:34:39 GMT -5
How awesome is it going to be when we get the equation worked out into MM form?? From MM, song and art.... to SUPER IRON Math Model to, THE equation.. A+++++, We exchanged Growth and Small caps yesterday from Expert 50/50 signal for T-Bonds ( Tax free as this is one of my three retirement funds).. I hope tp teach advance economics next year and one factor I love is the effect of lower cost investing. More later on the development of the next generation Mathematica model. God Bless you and ours: as always : Just a thought, Bruce Duke-Lendrum, MBA Duke L, I hear you loud and clear. It's also the reason I know for a fact what we will have here one day. Looking forward to the future. God bless yours, mine, and ours! |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Dec 3, 2015 6:05:25 GMT -5
Moonbeam, This from my Thesis derived from my aunt M.V. Green. After years of study: do the lease trading and reinvest in both stocks and bonds depending on current assets. This is 100% my works and part of the thesis on risk. Just a thought, Bruce Duke-Lendrum MBA, PharmB Risk study
I;Most investments have uncertainty: Is it cheaper to hedge or insure risk?
II: Does trading with system like MACD give any reason not to buy and hold?
III:Does system like Expert 50/50?
IV: Does Beta reasonable remonetisation of risk?
V: Is there a best system to hedge risk?
details later
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 11, 2016 19:26:20 GMT -5
New System: 50/30/20 50 low Beta stocks 30 % T-bonds 20% Options or shorts A bit more risk to produce better total return,... Just a thought, Bruce aka BimetalAuPt |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 12, 2016 14:53:31 GMT -5
Nothing like a little more reward for having balls of gold. |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 12, 2016 15:13:42 GMT -5
With M3 at 18,111 the DJIA is already at it top... 18,347.67 Time to sell  ?? No one went broke selling too fast!!! KA$H IS KING
Just a thought,
Bruce |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 12, 2016 15:29:32 GMT -5
It would make sense. If you look at 15,500 and 18,000 we have been range bound since 2014. Aka, the perfect environment for a successful trading system. |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 14, 2016 14:50:34 GMT -5
With M3 at 18,111 the DJIA is already at it top... 18,347.67 Time to sell ?? No one went broke selling too fast!!! KA$H IS KING
Just a thought,
Bruce On the other hand, in this low expectations environment even another quarter of declining earnings that's better than last could see a run up to 20k? |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 15, 2016 16:51:29 GMT -5
As Yale Professor Irving Fisher said in his 1920 2nd edition of the "Purchasing Power of Money"
"Cheap money will drive out dear money." |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 15, 2016 16:53:12 GMT -5
Inflation will be lower next year. As Yale Professor Irving Fisher stated in his 1920 second edition of "The Purchasing Power of Money":
"A certain quantity of goods may be either a quantity existing at a particular instant of time or a quantity produced, consumed, transported, or exchanged during a period of time.
The first quantity is a stock, or fund, of goods; the second is a flow, or stream, of goods."
"This equation contains on the money side two magnitudes, viz. (1) the quantity of money and (2) its velocity of circulation; and on the goods side two groups of magnitudes in two columns, viz. (1) the quantities of goods exchanged (loaves, tons, yards), and (2) the prices of these goods. The equation shows that these four sets of magnitudes are mutually related. Because this equation must be fulfilled, the prices must bear a relation to the three other sets of magnitudes, — quantity of money, rapidity of circulation, and quantities of goods exchanged.
Consequently, these prices must, as a whole, vary proportionally with the quantity of money and with its velocity of circulation, and inversely with the quantities of goods exchanged."
"Since exchanges, individually and collectively, always involve an equivalent quid pro quo, the two sides must be equal. Not only must purchases and sales be equal in amount—since every article bought by one person is necessarily sold by another—but the total value of goods sold must equal the total amount of money exchanged"
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 15, 2016 16:55:45 GMT -5
Stocks should move up until a little before the Presidential election. Then sell short.
Rates-of-change in monetary flows, M*Vt, or our means-of-payment money supply times its transactions rate-of-turnover = roc’s in all transactions in Yale Professor Irving Fisher’s truistic “equation of exchange”: where M*Vt = P*T; and not M*Vi = P*Q (as bastardized on Milton Friedman’s license plate).
There are 6 seasonal inflection points each year. And these seasonal factors are determined by the "trading desk" executing the FOMC's monetary policy directives.
These seasonal factors are scientific proof that the “Member Bank Reserve Requirements — Analysis of Committee Proposal” (1931-1938 study), published to insiders on 2/5/1938 (and declassified to the public on March 23, 1983), was indeed correct.
The 5th seasonal inflection point this year is 7/20/2016 (economic peak, not necessarily stock peak). But there is an anomaly this year at Nov. month-end. Inflation crashes for one month in Dec. And then the trajectory for inflation is lower in 2017 than 2016
1931-1938 study: "MEMBER BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS -- ANALYSIS OF COMMITTEE PROPOSAL*"
Declassified to the public on March 23, 1983
bit.ly/1A9bYH1
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 23, 2016 9:53:42 GMT -5
Inversion on 7/20/2016. Next high is 8/3/2016.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 24, 2016 14:35:26 GMT -5
Inversion on 7/20/2016. Next high is 8/3/2016. We have a stock market that is by all numbers is too high, also 40 year bull market for bonds is too high and yields too low JUST A THOUGH, Bruce |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 25, 2016 19:29:33 GMT -5
Rates-of-change, or roc's:
parse, dt, real-output, inflation
10/1/2015..... -0.033..... 0.184
11/1/2015..... -0.003..... 0.184
12/1/2015..... 0.011..... 0.124
01/1/2016..... 0.068..... 0.201 oil bottomed 1/20/2016 (deferred payments basis)
02/1/2016..... 0.020..... 0.156 stocks bottomed
03/1/2016..... 0.043..... 0.129
04/1/2016..... 0.041..... 0.150
05/1/2016..... 0.045..... 0.188 oil peaks (actually peaked 6/9/2016)
06/1/2015..... 0.073..... 0.147
07/1/2016..... 0.084..... 0.124 oil bottoms
08/1/2016..... 0.081..... 0.165 N-gDp peaks / oil peaks / sell stocks
09/1/2016..... 0.060..... 0.144 sell stocks short
10/1/2016..... -0.004..... 0.125
11/1/2016..... 0.046..... 0.125 buy bonds / sell commodities
12/1/2016..... 0.050..... 0.048
M1 is the metric to watch. It's been accelerating, i.e., "real" money relative to inflation (viz., it's an election year).
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 28, 2016 14:10:34 GMT -5
We are saving more today then 2005 but less then average. This is effting both German and USA's GDP. Paradox of saving!!!!!! United States Personal Savings Rate 1959-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar Household Saving Rate in the United States decreased to 5.30 percent in May from 5.40 percent in April of 2016. Personal Savings in the United States averaged 8.33 percent from 1959 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in May of 1975 and a record low of 1.90 percent in July of 2005. Personal Savings in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit Consumer Confidence 89.50 93.50 111.40 51.70 [+] Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.20 6.70 -3.70 percent [+] Retail Sales YoY 2.70 2.50 11.20 -11.50 percent [+] Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 0.40 2.20 -5.00 percent [+] Consumer Spending 11372.90 11330.70 11372.90 1320.40 USD Billion [+] Disposable Personal Income 13891.10 13855.40 13891.10 351.90 USD Billion [+] Personal Spending 0.40 1.00 2.80 -2.00 percent [+] Personal Income 0.20 0.40 4.60 -5.40 percent [+] Personal Savings 5.30 5.40 17.00 1.90 percent [+] Consumer Credit 18.56 13.40 115.00 -18.00 USD Billion [+] Private Sector Credit 8907.20 8858.13 8907.20 39.04 USD Billion [+] Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+] Economic Optimism Index 45.50 48.20 62.90 35.80 [+] Redbook Index 0.60 0.40 7.60 -5.80 percent [+] Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.62 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+] Households Debt To Gdp 79.20 79.10 95.50 23.40 percent of GDP [+] Chain Store Sales 4554.00 4389.00 15875.00 3362.00 USD Million [+] + JUST a thought, Bruce |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 29, 2016 15:16:17 GMT -5
The percent of M1 components to non-m1 components (savings) is .34 percent. During the 1990's it rose 52 percent and then reversed in the new millennium. I.e., bank-held savings are idle.
Commercial banks do not loan out existing savings (funds held beyond the income period in which received). CB held savings are lost to both investment and consumption. As more savings are impounded within the CB system, economic growth is retarded (if not offset by monetary policy).
Unless savings are expeditiously activated, otherwise “put to work”, provided an outlet for, etc. a depressing debt deflationary economic spiral is fostered and perpetually reinforced. Then as money velocity and AD falls, the FED must offset declining AD. This is the policy mix that produces stagflation (as predicted in the late 50’s – before the word was coined in 1965), and perpetuates a declining standard of livings.
Thus a long-term corrosive and debilitating impact on effective demands, esp. the demand for capital goods, and thus CAPEX, is continually exerted – whenever savings are not promptly matched with real investment outlets. The dire durable goods trend can only get worse.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 29, 2016 15:20:58 GMT -5
Yale Professor Irving Fisher – 1920: “The Purchasing Power of Money”
“If the principles here advocated are correct, the purchasing power of money — or its reciprocal, the level of prices — depends exclusively on five definite factors: (1) the volume of money in circulation; (2) its velocity of circulation; (3) the volume of bank deposits subject to check; (4) its velocity; and (5) the volume of trade. Each of these five magnitudes is extremely definite, and their relation to the purchasing power of money is definitely expressed by an “equation of exchange.”
“In my opinion, the branch of economics which treats of these five regulators of purchasing power ought to be recognized and ultimately will be recognized as an EXACT SCIENCE, capable of precise formulation, demonstration, and statistical verification.”
Economics is a science. As Fisher pontificated “it all depends on the right index number” |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 29, 2016 16:36:33 GMT -5
We are saving more today then 2005 but less then average. This is effting both German and USA's GDP. Paradox of saving!!!!!! United States Personal Savings Rate 1959-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar Household Saving Rate in the United States decreased to 5.30 percent in May from 5.40 percent in April of 2016. Personal Savings in the United States averaged 8.33 percent from 1959 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in May of 1975 and a record low of 1.90 percent in July of 2005. Personal Savings in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit Consumer Confidence 89.50 93.50 111.40 51.70 [+] Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.20 6.70 -3.70 percent [+] Retail Sales YoY 2.70 2.50 11.20 -11.50 percent [+] Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 0.40 2.20 -5.00 percent [+] Consumer Spending 11372.90 11330.70 11372.90 1320.40 USD Billion [+] Disposable Personal Income 13891.10 13855.40 13891.10 351.90 USD Billion [+] Personal Spending 0.40 1.00 2.80 -2.00 percent [+] Personal Income 0.20 0.40 4.60 -5.40 percent [+] Personal Savings 5.30 5.40 17.00 1.90 percent [+] Consumer Credit 18.56 13.40 115.00 -18.00 USD Billion [+] Private Sector Credit 8907.20 8858.13 8907.20 39.04 USD Billion [+] Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+] Economic Optimism Index 45.50 48.20 62.90 35.80 [+] Redbook Index 0.60 0.40 7.60 -5.80 percent [+] Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.62 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+] Households Debt To Gdp 79.20 79.10 95.50 23.40 percent of GDP [+] Chain Store Sales 4554.00 4389.00 15875.00 3362.00 USD Million [+] + JUST a thought, Bruce , Exactly! Less consumer spending than in the past has shaved GDP off the recovery in the US since the housing bust. Also, because the world economy stalled out in 2014 due to exuberance about China's new silk road, Germany has now been infected due to the EU and to a greater extent China. Merkel!!  The numbers show why the snapback in Q2 didn't happen. High paying resource based jobs and the industry that serves them are vital. What's worse is that solar and wind energy are at record high installations. So, not picking up where resources drop off as they are advertised to do. Why? Lots of wind and solar made overseas. Once installed, few people required to maintain. So, why not a better value added chain with the resources we have, that actually provides cheap power?? Now we are talking about how the Paradox of savings is actually a good thing because good paying jobs are being created to supplement decreased spending due to savings; savings that in the long run help the economy run more efficiently. |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 29, 2016 17:11:08 GMT -5
"Lots of wind and solar made overseas."
Right. The Chinese hacked U.S. solar panel databases and copied the specs.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 30, 2016 14:26:16 GMT -5
"Lots of wind and solar made overseas."
Right. The Chinese hacked U.S. solar panel databases and copied the specs.
There's that, but also the fact that their environmental standards and employment standards are essentially non existent. To me, holding trade deals with China until they meet US standards on manufacturing... |
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