bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 6, 2015 16:27:50 GMT -5
Interesting the lack of study on Markov Chain Monte Carlo I think this may be what I will use to teach Permutation Test with in the spring 2016 class at Midland College :The book new is $64.27 vs 199.99 For the current edition by Phillip Good Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt  Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference, Second Edition (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science) 2nd Editionwww.amazon.com/Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-Statistical/dp/1584885874/ref=oosrWhile there have been few theoretical contributions on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the past decade, current understanding and application of MCMC to the solution of inference problems has increased by leaps and bounds. Incorporating changes in theory and highlighting new applications, Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference, Second Edition presents a concise, accessible, and comprehensive introduction to the methods of this valuable simulation technique. The second edition includes access to an internet site that provides the code, written in R and WinBUGS, used in many of the previously existing and new examples and exercises. More importantly, the self-explanatory nature of the codes will enable modification of the inputs to the codes and variation on many directions will be available for further exploration. Major changes from the previous edition: · More examples with discussion of computational details in chapters on Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms · Recent developments in MCMC, including reversible jump, slice sampling, bridge sampling, path sampling, multiple-try, and delayed rejection · Discussion of computation using both R and WinBUGS · Additional exercises and selected solutions within the text, with all data sets and software available for download from the Web · Sections on spatial models and model adequacy The self-contained text units make MCMC accessible to scientists in other disciplines as well as statisticians. The book will appeal to everyone working with MCMC techniques, especially research and graduate statisticians and biostatisticians, and scientists handling data and formulating models. The book has been substantially reinforced as a first reading of material on MCMC and, consequently, as a textbook for modern Bayesian computation and Bayesian inference courses. |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 6, 2015 22:29:12 GMT -5
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 8, 2015 17:03:49 GMT -5
From Schwab Markets have lost 'muscle memory' for Fed rate rises: policymaker 12:07 AM ET, 11/08/2015 - Reuters TEMPE, Ariz, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Markets have lost their "muscle memory" for anticipating moves by the Federal Reserve, but will relearn how to take cues from economic data and central bankers' forecasts once U.S. interest-rate rises get underway, a top Fed official said on Saturday. "It's IS much poor communication on New York Federal Reserve " Bruce Duke-Lendrum Principal of Lendrum Labortories New York .
Before the Fed's October meeting, many investors had thought it unlikely it would raise rates at all this year, even though most Fed officials themselves thought they would.( We still do as the economies are not looking very well, Bruce Duke-Lendrum, MBA )Before the Fed's October meeting, many investors had thought it unlikely it would raise rates at all this year, even though most Fed officials themselves thought they would.The October statement inserted a reference to a possible rate increase at "next meeting," jolting markets into repricing the possibility of a December rate rise.( REAL Bad choose of words, Bruce Duke-Lendrum, MBA)Once rates start to go up, the Fed's main communications tool for guiding investors on what to expect next will be Fed officials' economic forecasts, published quarterly, he said. (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing byBruce Duke-Lendrum, MBA) |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 8, 2015 19:08:03 GMT -5
, Sorry, I think you are saying the FED is missing their own Economics.. As in, slow and steady skeleton crew vs. extreme weakness in the East - means have fun trying to lift off?? Or are you saying the FED is missing their own Economics and when they lift off in December they will most likely wish they hadn't?? God bless,  |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 10, 2015 14:30:34 GMT -5
A+++++, Lets take a look at the facts. War in the area of oil production will increase the price of oil!  War is better for bonds: esp T-Bonds. Reread WWII prices of T-Bonds. The Federal Reserve willsupport the War and banks!! Canadian American International Refining Will produce 1,000,000 bls. West Texas Intermediate and diesel daily at at a very good Profit. There will be no unemployment in Texas or Canada. Bonds are House you live in: Kash is King esp USD. Buy Bonds!! Putin is going to be the hero!!.  Just only my thoughts, BiMetalAuPt |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 10, 2015 17:12:59 GMT -5
, Thanks, Putin? Sometimes you just never know how right you're going to be.... It's going to get dicey on the west coast and in certain pockets down East - but the prairies and TX are going to produce 1,000,000,000! BARRELS!!! of oil for this next chapter in our history. Job and housing is Saskatchewan!!  MMBA++++ is the house I live in. God bless us all,
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 11, 2015 14:28:11 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 11, 2015 16:21:21 GMT -5
 ++++ Perfect! The perfect foundation for our - zero waste tar to WTIE, to new crude; all from coal that gives us free water and natural gas - money making empire!! Then there is MMBA++++!!!!!!!!!! Is there such thing as infinity dollars??!!!?? God bless the 7th, &Co. 
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 11, 2015 18:23:01 GMT -5
Dollar rise may not be as fast as you think
The prospect of the Fed hiking interest rates in December has pushed the dollar higher, and it is now looking like the euro reaching parity with the greenback is all but guaranteed.
Related Stories Euro-dollar going to 1.20, not parity: Strategist CNBC Goldman: Dollar Bull Run Is Just Getting Started Barrons.com Goldman Sachs: Dollar Could Hit Parity Versus Euro in 2015 Barrons.com Goldman Says Dollar May Rise to Parity With Euro by Year End Bloomberg FOREX-Dollar push past $1.08 per euro hangs on jobs data Reuters It’s Not a Phone, It’s a Galaxy: Dual-Edge Display Samsung Sponsored Strategists, however, disagree on how quickly that will happen and how much more the dollar can appreciate in the near term. That depends, they say, on the Fed , and how fast it will raise interest rates in a world where other central banks are moving in the opposite direction toward easier policy.
Goldman Sachs analysts this week reiterated that they expect euro parity with the dollar by year-end though other strategists expect the decline in the common currency against the dollar to take longer.
"I'm a skeptic on that for the time being. I think the Fed is going to come out in December and do a one and done, and if it does, that's going to be a cap on the dollar rally," said Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management. "The euro is under a lot of pressure, but it's going to test the 1.05 level before it gets to parity."
Schlossberg said the dollar's rise could also be slowed by weakish economic data, which would indicate a slower trajectory for Fed rate hikes.
"What we learned this year is the Fed is sensitive to the dollar, so I think the dollar is very strong," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at BNP Paribas. "They'll hike in December but the tone would be more dovish. ... The ECB is probably less sensitive to the euro. If the euro is under $1.05, they'll ease but the easing, the mix of the measures they choose, would be less aggressive. All is well for the U.S. dollar, but I think we just have to be careful as to the speed with which it does move higher."
F rank,It is about time $1.00 = 1.00 EURO.
We have projected it for about 2 years.
Just a thought,
Bruce Duke-Lendrum , MBA
finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-rise-may-not-fast-203116872.html
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 13, 2015 21:09:03 GMT -5
Personally I have heard from several European family members about the call I sent out Sunday about the buy call from MMXVI-Alpha and or The call Sent out by Expert 50/50 Monday 10,2015 for the buy of T-bonds. Remember: employment is a lagging number. Retail looks horrible esp HD and LOW. T-Bonds are hot!!: they look under price with the " Black Swans" in the EU flying high in the death formations. As the European central bankers are say: Europe is out of money!! As before: The Treasury market is the most liquid market in the world. I only play the long market and make enough interest to live very well. Currently we are reserving Money to buy more HD and LOW when we see the bottom. Currently Expert 50/50 has 51.38% cash and bonds. MMXV!-Alpha is not updated for M3 yet but the point is well taken that Stock have shown to be overpriced. Just a thought, Bruce Duke-Lendrum PharmB, MBA |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 13, 2015 21:46:16 GMT -5
Me thinks there are going to be several family members that are going to be even happier about the other call that we have been talking about. Uncharted waters these be Capt... God bless, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 15, 2015 0:23:30 GMT -5
One thing the world understands is when there is blood in the streets bond, may not be risk free but, better then stocks. In the long run; stocks or options on stocks or futures; may make more money, if then ;assets emotion strong enough to hold on. Just a thought, Bruce Duke-Lendrum MBA, The study of emotion in neuroeconomics EA Phelps - Neuroeconomics: Decision making and the brain, 2009 - books.google.com ... emotion in decision making has rarely been coupled with the detailed investigation of the range of components, factors, and measures that have characterized the psychological study of emotion and affect. The goal of this chapter is to introduce neuro- economic researchers to ... Cited by 47 Related articles All 2 versions Cite Save From Warton I also found this of major interest about Neuro Economics!! Yes this is a bit long and 100% reoriented to cure insomnia.. Reoriented to cure!!Yes.. opim.wharton.upenn.edbu/risk/library/WP2008-04-07_SR,GL_RoleofEmotioninEconomicBehavior.pdf |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 15, 2015 0:36:18 GMT -5
Duke, Great point, as usual! This is why, IMO, it's important to have hobbies that match your passions. Art, music, science, history, etc.. That way when it comes down to business... You can do what needs to be done, essentially. God blessed us all thanks to the true profit, Jesus! PS. I am halfway done Irrational Decisions and already have four points for MMBA++++, just a thought - as you say. Thanks! |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Nov 24, 2015 3:17:31 GMT -5
Take the long term look:Do the math; if Stock are down and the average for the last 50 years is a recovery based on total return of 8% then we should see a Stock recovery in 2020!! M3 is closer related to the Dow-Jones industry. There has been a negative correlation of about 80.% for the last 15Years. No rush to correct the balance or to do a rebalance to 50%/ 50%. Time is on the side of the long term investor. High frequant traders are there own worst enamy.
Just a thought,
Bruce Duke-Lendrum MBA, PharmB
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 24, 2015 9:41:19 GMT -5
How right you are that time is on our side. Long term I can't wait to put HFT to shame with 100% returns annually! And we are just talking about our expert 50/50 MMBA++++ here.. |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Dec 8, 2015 23:50:45 GMT -5
Try this again. MMXVI-ALPHA IS LOOKING TO LOSS $0.2645 FOR EVERY $1.OO INVESTED.YES THE RISK IS LESS AND I HATE TO SEE PRICES GOING UP WHEN I AM BUYING. WE LOVE WORMS THAT EAT WASTE AND BS!!
jUST A THOUGHT
BRUCE DUKE-LENDRUM, MBA, PHARMB, BS
Our expert 50/50 had a bad day: we lost 0.35%
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Dec 9, 2015 11:04:41 GMT -5
Duke, and then there is today. Buying when the market is going down and Super Iron is saying less risk is kinda the whole plan, right? |
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