Ombud
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 14, 2013 23:21:04 GMT -5
Posts: 7,597
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Post by Ombud on Dec 18, 2014 22:00:40 GMT -5
Well now I'm kind of bummed that I got my December contributions in at the low point, but I just got some Christmas money that I want to invest and its already back up. Yeah, I got several orders in but those last 2 missed. So now I'm sitting on 2 limit orders totaling over 58k and it's up Guess I could pay off the car loan but that's at 1.289%
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 19, 2014 10:10:29 GMT -5
The run up on the fed announcement that it could be "patient" in raising rates is illustrative of the problem: the market is being propped up by fed stimulus, government borrowing, and artificially low interest rates. How much longer can it go on? I do not know. What I know for certain is that it won't last forever and we are probably much closer to the end than the beginning or the middle. We've got debt, we're printing money, the petrodollar is threatened, and there is pent up demand in China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific rim. What's going to happen when the dollar collapses? They're going to decide it's not worth it to ship goods here, and besides they want these things for themselves.
The silver lining is natural resources. The U.S. is a veritable sea of oil and natural gas. Managed properly, it could be a way out of debt, and back to a healthy monetary system based on a basket of commodities.
Who really knows? There are other problems to worry about like global war, an EMP, a pandemic- and it doesn't have to be ebola- the 1919 flu killed over 700,000 Americans (675,000 at home, many more soldiers overseas). Adjusted for population an event half that magnitude would be a million dead. More people died in a single year from 1918 - 1919 than died in four years from the black death- the plague from 1347 - 1351. Half the dead soldiers in Europe that died in WWI died from the flu- 43,000. Obama's open southern border policy is a huge public health and national security nightmare.
Ask yourself: could our consumer economy survive if every mall, store, downtown shopping district, restaurant, movie theater, hair salon, spa, golf course, theme park, cruise ship, hotel, and you name it closed within a 2 month period? They would. I personally have significant holdings in corporate housing and vacation rental properties and we just had a huge wake up call with the ebola scare-- imagine if that situation had persisted, even if only in the media?
Nevermind an EMP, or outright nuclear strike, dirty bomb, Solar Flare-- now you're talking about a situation where if you're not healthy, you're dead. That's roughly 100 million dead in about a one to two year period because they can't get the life-sustaining medicine and health services they rely on-- not including those who get sick in the interim with things that were easily treatable before we went dark.
Ferguson-like riots nation-wide (and if you think the riots were bad over a grand jury decision-- how do you think the same sorts of people will behave when they're hungry?).
What about a civil war, or military coup? (btw- we are MUCH CLOSER to a military coup than I think anyone realizes. If you're paying attention, it'd actually be more surprising if it DIDN'T happen than if it did).
What about one or more of these things happening at once?
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movingforward
Junior Associate
Joined: Sept 15, 2011 12:48:31 GMT -5
Posts: 8,373
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Post by movingforward on Dec 19, 2014 10:25:45 GMT -5
I am not going to spend my life sitting around thinking about the "what ifs" all the time
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TheHaitian
Senior Associate
Joined: Jul 27, 2014 19:39:10 GMT -5
Posts: 10,144
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Post by TheHaitian on Dec 19, 2014 10:31:51 GMT -5
I am not going to spend my life sitting around thinking about the "what ifs" all the time X 2 I am just going to roll with the punches.
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Bonny
Junior Associate
Joined: Nov 17, 2013 10:54:37 GMT -5
Posts: 7,449
Location: No Place Like Home!
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Post by Bonny on Dec 19, 2014 11:53:08 GMT -5
LOL, AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP, I don't know if I should give you this as a Christmas present ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/tinfoil.gif) or encourage you to distribute your message in a flier to be distributed in areas where you want to pick up real estate cheap! ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/tongue.png)
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 19, 2014 13:31:35 GMT -5
LOL, AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP, I don't know if I should give you this as a Christmas present ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/tinfoil.gif) or encourage you to distribute your message in a flier to be distributed in areas where you want to pick up real estate cheap! ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/tongue.png) One can never have enough tin foil.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 19, 2014 13:54:57 GMT -5
It has not been real difficult to double your money over the past five years. Just have it invested in a SP500 Index fund and dont touch it. Here are the returns of the SP500. 2009 - 26.49% 2010 - 14.91% 2011 - 1.97% 2012 - 15.96% 2013 - 32.18% That just about does it. BUT..the past six years and the returns we have seen are highly abnormal. Long term average is about 11% since its inception in the 1950's. I have several plans. One of them is the "what if everything continues rolling along just fine for 30 more years?" plan- that is 100% in SP500 indexed funds. I've been extremely happy with the returns on that money. It's only about 15% of my net worth, but I'm happy with the ROI. Most of my net worth is in real estate, and this year we've added a good deal of land. Some in South Florida, some up on the GA border-- that one is very interesting, we've gotten into the organic pecan business up there with a partner. He had 40 acres, a good track record, so we not only helped him finance 200 acres, we took the bet with him for a piece of the action. Pecans won't produce any significant crops for about 10 years, and peak production isn't for 20 years-- but the returns are expected to be quite good. We are expecting between $4,800 and $5,300 per acre for Certified Organic-- which our partner has already gone through the process, so we expect to do the same with our new plot. And if the world does go to hell- we can eat our investment for a very long time.
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Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 22, 2014 23:26:38 GMT -5
Hey Pat.... It only took four trading days to make everything look a lot better. Dow was close to a record today, and S&P500 hit another record.
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