Scottish Referendum: You Don't Realize How Big a Deal It Is

[mmhmm]

The turnout is fantastic! The lowest I've seen is Dundee at 79% (ETA: Just read Glasgow turnout was 75%) and they had a fire at the polling place that resulted in an evacuation. Clackmannanshire results are in: 54% No/46% yes, but it's a fairly small area. Orkney results are in: 67% No/ 33% Yes.

[Jaguar]

I'm watching the vote on BBC.

[mmhmm]

As am I, Sugi.

[Jaguar]

See I'm interested cause of both my English blood and my Canadian blood. Quebec is watching this very closely, they need to see this whichever way it does go.

[Tennesseer]

I hope there is a very large majority voting to remain a part of the United Kingdom. A slim win to remain could remain a very devisive issue between Scots for years to come.

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2014 20:07:24 GMT -5 Jaguar said:

See I'm interested cause of both my English blood and my Canadian blood. Quebec is watching this very closely, they need to see this whichever way it does go.

Do you think, if it passes, that it could cause an upswell in the Quebecers that want to go it alone?

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2014 20:08:38 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I hope there is a very large majority voting to remain a part of the United Kingdom. A slim win to remain could remain a very devisive issue between Scots for years to come.

A slim win to remain could also spun a re-vote next year... and the year after that... and the year after that... until it passes.

A decisive win to remain could stem the tide... at least for a while.

[Jaguar]

Sept 18, 2014 20:21:18 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Sept 18, 2014 20:07:24 GMT -5 Jaguar said:

See I'm interested cause of both my English blood and my Canadian blood. Quebec is watching this very closely, they need to see this whichever way it does go.

Do you think, if it passes, that it could cause an upswell in the Quebecers that want to go it alone?

Yes.

[Tennesseer]

Sept 18, 2014 20:22:49 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Sept 18, 2014 20:08:38 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I hope there is a very large majority voting to remain a part of the United Kingdom. A slim win to remain could remain a very devisive issue between Scots for years to come.

A slim win to remain could also spun a re-vote next year... and the year after that... and the year after that... until it passes.

A decisive win to remain could stem the tide... at least for a while.

Very true.

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2014 20:26:25 GMT -5 Jaguar said:

Sept 18, 2014 20:21:18 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Do you think, if it passes, that it could cause an upswell in the Quebecers that want to go it alone?

Yes.

Well... if it does... and if THAT passes... would you Canadians consider annexing the US?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 18, 2014 19:20:05 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

FX markets are going to be going nuts tomorrow regardless of the outcome.

the separation has already been factored in, but there should be a nice bounce if it doesn't happen.

[haapai]

It's kinda neat watching these folks and realizing that they are counting votes in the dead of night.  I'm so used to the attitude that if you're working after dark, what you're doing can't possibly be important, so this is a refreshing antidote.

Despite being given one of those political block by political block puzzles of the UK as a kid, the place names mean nothing to me.  I can't tell you if the place is Northern or Southern and it's population and expected leaning is mysterious to me.

But I have an excuse.  I'm a Yank who doesn't have a clue whether the McShorts in my family tree were Scottish or Irish.  (They were unsuccessful potato farmers, but they also seem to have been Protestant.)  Does any of this coverage make sense to a Brit living in England, Wales, or NI, or is it as incomprehensible to you as Rhode Island politics is to a MidWesterner? 

[ՏՇԾԵԵʅՏɧ_LԹՏՏʅҼ]

As you can tell from my Display name, I don't see separation as something that will happen (hopefully). Scotland has struggled for independence for a few centuries, but have few resources they can fall back on to become an Independent nation on their own.

There's only so much mutton or Glenfiddich Scotch they can use as a resource to sustain it without being a part of the British Commonwealth.

[djAdvocate]

7 precincts reporting, so far.
6 voted no, one yes.

edit: closer than expected.  here is the total as of 5 mins ago:

11:13 p.m. ET -- 241,559 votes NO (50.95%), 232,516 votes YES (49.05%)

Read more: www.ctvnews.ca/world/how-scotland-is-voting-map-of-referendum-results-1.2014138#ixzz3DjC78A3A

[busymom]

Our local news just reported 51% no to 49% yes.  (Same as you, DJ.)  But, there are still a lot of votes to count. It could be a long night!

 

[mmhmm]

26 of 32 precincts in. Vote is 54 No to 46 Yes. 

With only 6 left to declare, there's virtually no chance Scotland will be splitting from the UK at this point in time.

[Jaguar]

Scotland has said NO to independence, BBC forecast. 26/32 declared

[djAdvocate]

Sept 18, 2014 23:15:50 GMT -5 Jaguar said:

Scotland has said NO to independence, BBC forecast. 26/32 declared

all done but the counting.

the YouGov exit poll was surprisingly accurate.  they said it would lose by 8%, and that is pretty much what is going to happen.

edit: i say surprisingly not because exist polls are known for inaccuracy.  they are NOT. 
i say surprisingly because YouGov didn't conduct this poll IN PERSON.  it is not allowed in the UK.
they conducted it over the phone, in interviews after voting. 
interesting methodology, but they are to be commended.

[Jaguar]

It's a definite NO, 31/32 declared.

[Opti]

I saw a news article on this early this morning, and what struck me most

is how people just spin as second nature.

news.msn.com/world/scots-reject-independence-in-historic-vote

"We have chosen unity over division," Alistair Darling, head of the No campaign, said early Friday in Glasgow. Today is a momentous day for Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole."

The pound hit a two-year high against the euro and a two-week high against the U.S. dollar as markets shrugged off recent anxiety about a possible vote for independence. In early Asian trading, the pound jumped nearly 0.8 percent to $1.6525 against the U.S. dollar before falling back slightly. Britain's main stock index opened higher.

A much-relieved Cameron promised outside his Downing Street office to live up to earlier promises to give Scotland new powers on taxes, spending and welfare. He said the new plans will be agreed upon by November, with draft legislation by January.

"We will ensure that those commitments are honored in full," Cameron said. "We have heard the voice of Scotland, now the voices of millions in England must be heard."

I think Alistair is likely deluding himself. Security and what is known was likely chosen

over succession. I have a feeling with just a 10% spread, if a better hatched plan for succession

is voted on in a few years or so, the outcome might be different.

[Virgil Showlion]

Sept 19, 2014 6:31:03 GMT -5 Opti said:

I saw a news article on this early this morning, and what struck me most

is how people just spin as second nature.

news.msn.com/world/scots-reject-independence-in-historic-vote

"We have chosen unity over division," Alistair Darling, head of the No campaign, said early Friday in Glasgow. Today is a momentous day for Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole."

The pound hit a two-year high against the euro and a two-week high against the U.S. dollar as markets shrugged off recent anxiety about a possible vote for independence. In early Asian trading, the pound jumped nearly 0.8 percent to $1.6525 against the U.S. dollar before falling back slightly. Britain's main stock index opened higher.

A much-relieved Cameron promised outside his Downing Street office to live up to earlier promises to give Scotland new powers on taxes, spending and welfare. He said the new plans will be agreed upon by November, with draft legislation by January.

"We will ensure that those commitments are honored in full," Cameron said. "We have heard the voice of Scotland, now the voices of millions in England must be heard."

I think Alistair is likely deluding himself. Security and what is known was likely chosen

over succession. I have a feeling with just a 10% spread, if a better hatched plan for succession

is voted on in a few years or so, the outcome might be different.

I'm interested in just how P.M. Cameron is going to afford all those concessions. The UK's debt to GDP is pushing 320%. But the austerity measures that piqued the Scots' ire, which weren't even "austere" enough to halfway balance the budget, are evidently going to have to be relaxed.

Where is the money going to come from?

Having said that, this is a most fortunate outcome--at least for now.

[ArchietheDragon]

Can the US have a referendum to become part of the UK again?

[zibazinski]

They said it'd be close. How exciting!

[djAdvocate]

their polling sucks. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 19, 2014 1:42:51 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

Closer than I thought it would be. I can see this coming up again, soon.

i don't think it was close enough to merit any optimism for the Yes community.

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

What I thought was interesting was that there was nearly 90% voter turn out.  Too bad the US can't seem to elicit these kind of responses in for our elections.

Watching BBC last night was interesting, as the results were coming in....

[Value Buy]

Sept 19, 2014 10:56:28 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

What I thought was interesting was that there was nearly 90% voter turn out.  Too bad the US can't seem to elicit these kind of responses in for our elections.

Watching BBC last night was interesting, as the results were coming in....

I imagine Scotland actually only has real people on their voting rolls, unlike us.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 19, 2014 10:59:39 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sept 19, 2014 10:56:28 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

What I thought was interesting was that there was nearly 90% voter turn out.  Too bad the US can't seem to elicit these kind of responses in for our elections.

Watching BBC last night was interesting, as the results were coming in....

I imagine Scotland actually only has real people on their voting rolls, unlike us.

i imagine they only have real people actually voting, like us.

[jkapp]

Darn, I was hoping to see how it would all unfold if when they voted "yes." Although I'm sure it would have been a big stink for a while, how often do you get to see an event like that in your lifetime?

[Deleted]

Sept 19, 2014 18:16:52 GMT -5 jkapp said:

Darn, I was hoping to see how it would all unfold if when they voted "yes." Although I'm sure it would have been a big stink for a while, how often do you get to see an event like that in your lifetime?

Already saw one. The break-up of the U.S.S.R. .