Scottish Referendum: You Don't Realize How Big a Deal It Is

[Virgil Showlion]

Granted, there's a lot going on in the world today, but I find it hard to believe this topic hasn't been raised here.

For those of you transfixed by stories of celebrity wife beatings and the new iPhone, who may not be aware of the issue: on September 18 (this coming Thursday), Scotland will vote whether or not to secede from the United Kingdom, ending a union that has lasted more than three centuries.

A few weeks ago it seemed as though the "No" vote would prevail, but since then the polls have converged to parity in the vote.

A "Yes" outcome will transform the world, particularly in Europe. And by "transform the world", I mean the impact will be on par with that of 9/11. Dozens of European successionist movements are looking to Scotland to bootstrap their own campaigns. Political analysts warn that Scottish Independence will light the fires of separatism, with prognostications ranging from the disintegration of Spain and Italy to the complete balkanization of Europe.

And to say nothing of the political ramifications, the economic ramifications are also severe. A split between Scotland and England would be an incredibly messy divorce. The two nations have no solid plan for divvying up assets, resources, debts, banks, institutions. Frankly, I doubt a tenth of the Scottish "Yes" voters have any clue whatsoever what they're in for if the referendum passes. There's going to be a crash in the pound sterling, banks going under, huge disruptions to financial markets with cascading "contagion" effects such as those we saw in 2007. A "yes" vote is going to rock global capital markets.

Inform yourself on the issue.

The Business Insider has a good primer. And this article from the Telegraph is a good primer on the madness that will ensue should "Yes" prevail.

[mmhmm]

I've read quite a bit on the subject, Virgil. It certainly would be a major mess if Scotland did, indeed, split from England. I just don't think it's going to go that way. The Scots have too much to lose. As you say, there is no plan in place. I don't think the Scots are that stupid ... at least, I hope they're not!

[Virgil Showlion]

Sept 14, 2014 16:10:16 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

I've read quite a bit on the subject, Virgil. It certainly would be a major mess if Scotland did, indeed, split from England. I just don't think it's going to go that way. The Scots have too much to lose. As you say, there is no plan in place. I don't think the Scots are that stupid ... at least, I hope they're not!

It's 50/50. A toss of a coin at this point.

It's an unusual situation in that nationalist movements typically find their bases in the political right, but the Scottish independence movement is a strong leftist movement.

[busymom]

Thanks for the heads up, Virgil! As you've suggested, that hasn't even made the news around here. Now, I'll be watching for information on how the vote goes. (DH has quite a bit of Scottish blood in him.)

[mmhmm]

Sept 14, 2014 18:20:58 GMT -5 busymom said:

Thanks for the heads up, Virgil! As you suggested, that hasn't even made the news around here. Now, I'll be watching for information on how the vote goes. (DH has quite a bit of Scottish blood in him.)

There's lots of information on the internet, busymom. It's been quite the talk across the pond.

[billisonboard]

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, ...

[busymom]

Sept 14, 2014 18:33:44 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Sept 14, 2014 18:20:58 GMT -5 busymom said:

Thanks for the heads up, Virgil! As you suggested, that hasn't even made the news around here. Now, I'll be watching for information on how the vote goes. (DH has quite a bit of Scottish blood in him.)

There's lots of information on the internet, busymom. It's been quite the talk across the pond.

  Unfortunately, now that school has begun once again, I hardly ever get to read a newspaper, or read the articles on the internet. 

[mmhmm]

Sept 14, 2014 18:48:03 GMT -5 busymom said:

Sept 14, 2014 18:33:44 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

There's lots of information on the internet, busymom. It's been quite the talk across the pond.

  Unfortunately, now that school has begun once again, I hardly ever get to read a newspaper, or read the articles on the internet. 

Ouch! I hope you can find the time to read some of it. DH, too!

[mmhmm]

Sept 14, 2014 16:42:11 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Sept 14, 2014 16:10:16 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

I've read quite a bit on the subject, Virgil. It certainly would be a major mess if Scotland did, indeed, split from England. I just don't think it's going to go that way. The Scots have too much to lose. As you say, there is no plan in place. I don't think the Scots are that stupid ... at least, I hope they're not!

It's 50/50. A toss of a coin at this point.

It's an unusual situation in that nationalist movements typically find their bases in the political right, but the Scottish independence movement is a strong leftist movement.

I don't really care which "side" is pushing it. I just don't think it's a good thing for Scotland at this point.

[Opti]

I haven't read about this yet, but I think I heard about it last week.

Might be in relation to the fact Presbyterians originate from Scotland?

FWIW, it was important to me as there is a Princeton Theological Seminary

in the heart of Princeton I never knew about!

[Opti]

Sept 14, 2014 19:12:35 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Sept 14, 2014 16:42:11 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

It's 50/50. A toss of a coin at this point.

It's an unusual situation in that nationalist movements typically find their bases in the political right, but the Scottish independence movement is a strong leftist movement.

I don't really care which "side" is pushing it. I just don't think it's a good thing for Scotland at this point.

Given that Texas wants to succeed from the US and that movement has been active

for many years, how serious of a threat is this? Links would be nice. TY.

[Deleted]

People rarely vote on "What's good for us as a people?" and usually vote "what do I want?".

That being said, also many people say one thing but when faced with that actual time to put that decision down, permanently and irrevocably, choose to remain with the status quo.

I don't know how this is going to turn out. I hope for continuity's sake that they vote "no". I hope for liberty's sake and the sake of the right to determine one's own course that they vote "yes".

[billisonboard]

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2014 20:34:28 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

People rarely vote on "What's good for us as a people?" and usually vote "what do I want?".

that is "common sense", but i am not at all sure it is true.  it is too big a topic for this thread, so maybe some other time. 

[Deleted]

Big question ... Does this bode well for currency exchange while we are in London next month? 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 16, 2014 11:26:45 GMT -5 oped said:

Big question ... Does this bode well for currency exchange while we are in London next month? 

uncertainty is generally bad for currencies, so i would probably WAIT to exchange my dollars.  if the referendum FAILS, it is status quo, so very little should happen.  if it succeeds, all bets are off.  save one: Cameron is going down.

[justme]

"Scots know how to run a country, because when they got to select a national animal they selected a unicorn." 

[deziloooooo]

Five and a half population on one side..fifty million on the other...From what I have read it seems the North has been allowed a lot of freedom to do things as they want to..independence in a way..education, domestic infrastructures decisions, individuality of choice on just about all things ..OK , not on foreign affairs decisions..still only one voice of many...{ which is the way of Democracy in my mind..} also Nuclear missels  submarines ...ported in the North I believe...

With all that has been said about that end of it..seems so far, these weapons being in the hands of  few since beginning of the 50's have worked or had something to do with keeping a lid on the real real big blow outs and not being used , so far, in the expected smaller ones..lets face it, these will happen , boys being boys..

From what I have read  I think it will behoove the Scots to stay with their bretheran in a  togetherness mode...stronger and more influential in all things then trying to make a point from a rocky not so endowed with riches northern out post of a group of five plus million....their voice rarely heard or listened to....are the Belgium, Dutch , Lichensteins of the world really that influential in the world..?

[Spellbound454]

Alex Salmond is harping on about how The UK and Scotland will be the best of friends if there is a Yes vote.
Actually not......Most people this side of the border think... Screw you.


It was always about Nationalism, an inbred hatred of the Sassenachs and oil.. Nothing political
It will be a great shame......but personally.......I think they are going.

[kent]

Sept 16, 2014 11:44:12 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

...also Nuclear missels  submarines ...ported in the North I believe...

That would be Holy Loch - I remember it well - that's all I've got to say about that.  

For those interested

www.aboutsubs.com/holy-loch.htm

[Value Buy]

Somehow I get the picture of Mel Gibson, lying on the chopping block screaming FREEDOM with his last dying breath.

And Virgil it has been on the news and in the papers here in the lower 48, but we have more serious issues here with the NFL and our fantasy football league teams and standings

[mmhmm]

Sept 16, 2014 17:51:22 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Alex Salmond is harping on about how The UK and Scotland will be the best of friends if there is a Yes vote.
Actually not......Most people this side of the border think... Screw you.


It was always about Nationalism, an inbred hatred of the Sassenachs and oil.. Nothing political
It will be a great shame......but personally.......I think they are going.

Do you think so? You're much closer to it than we are over here. I'd really hate to see that happen for both England and Scotland, but I think Scotland will come out on the short end of the stick. I'd much rather see the two work together to come up with a future plan for independence, if that's what Scotland wants. That way, they could phase into things instead of taking a big leap of faith.

[Value Buy]

Sept 16, 2014 18:56:43 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Sept 16, 2014 17:51:22 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Alex Salmond is harping on about how The UK and Scotland will be the best of friends if there is a Yes vote.
Actually not......Most people this side of the border think... Screw you.


It was always about Nationalism, an inbred hatred of the Sassenachs and oil.. Nothing political
It will be a great shame......but personally.......I think they are going.

Do you think so? You're much closer to it than we are over here. I'd really hate to see that happen for both England and Scotland, but I think Scotland will come out on the short end of the stick. I'd much rather see the two work together to come up with a future plan for independence, if that's what Scotland wants. That way, they could phase into things instead of taking a big leap of faith.

Two of the larger banks have already announced if Scotland pulls out, they move headquarters to England.

I wonder what the Obama administration would say about companies moving out of country.

[Tennesseer]

Sept 16, 2014 19:18:01 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sept 16, 2014 18:56:43 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Do you think so? You're much closer to it than we are over here. I'd really hate to see that happen for both England and Scotland, but I think Scotland will come out on the short end of the stick. I'd much rather see the two work together to come up with a future plan for independence, if that's what Scotland wants. That way, they could phase into things instead of taking a big leap of faith.

Two of the larger banks have already announced if Scotland pulls out, they move headquarters to England.

I wonder what the Obama administration would say about companies moving out of country.

What two banks would that be and where are their headquarters now?

[djAdvocate]

everybody knows why this is happening, right?  Scotland is very liberal, and they are tired of having their social services slowly taken away by their neoconservative government.  Paul's analogy of CA leaving the US was not half bad.

[mmhmm]

Sept 16, 2014 19:18:01 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Sept 16, 2014 18:56:43 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Do you think so? You're much closer to it than we are over here. I'd really hate to see that happen for both England and Scotland, but I think Scotland will come out on the short end of the stick. I'd much rather see the two work together to come up with a future plan for independence, if that's what Scotland wants. That way, they could phase into things instead of taking a big leap of faith.

Two of the larger banks have already announced if Scotland pulls out, they move headquarters to England.

I wonder what the Obama administration would say about companies moving out of country.

I'd read about the threats to leave. As to what might happen here, I really don't know. Hadn't given it any thought. We don't have anything approaching this situation in this country. Various states whine and pule about secession every now and then, but it's not the same, to me.

[mmhmm]

Sept 16, 2014 19:31:01 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Sept 16, 2014 19:18:01 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Two of the larger banks have already announced if Scotland pulls out, they move headquarters to England.

I wonder what the Obama administration would say about companies moving out of country.

What two banks would that be and where are their headquarters now?

Royal Bank of Scotland was one of them. I think the other may have been Lloyd's Group. 

[mmhmm]

Sept 16, 2014 19:58:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

everybody knows why this is happening, right?  Scotland is very liberal, and they are tired of having their social services slowly taken away by their neoconservative government.  Paul's analogy of CA leaving the US was not half bad.

That's some of it, I'm sure, but Scotland has always been a recalcitrant participant. They've got a lot of national pride and have bristled at the thought of not being independent. They're an independent lot anyway, so this didn't really surprise me. There have been rumblings many times before.

[Opti]

Sept 16, 2014 19:58:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

everybody knows why this is happening, right?  Scotland is very liberal, and they are tired of having their social services slowly taken away by their neoconservative government.  Paul's analogy of CA leaving the US was not half bad.

oOOOH.

Another reason I liked Scotland I guess.

Lutherans mostly come from German roots.

I think Presbytarians are from Scotland.

Anyone know if that is correct/generally true?

[Value Buy]

Sept 16, 2014 19:31:01 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Sept 16, 2014 19:18:01 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Two of the larger banks have already announced if Scotland pulls out, they move headquarters to England.

I wonder what the Obama administration would say about companies moving out of country.

What two banks would that be and where are their headquarters now?

Tenn, I am not sure, will have have to research it. It was discussed on CNBC

Will try to find it for you.