Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 24, 2014 22:57:36 GMT -5
LOL the one in my mini profile. CO that font is so small i can't really see it. i want to say a few things about Colorado. the first one is that i never really thought Udall's seat was in danger. Cory is a political outsider, and when i say outside, he is WAY outside the mainstream in his views on a number of issues. there must be a very strong undercurrent of discontent with Udall, but i can't really understand why. Udall is a leader on the privacy rights issue. he is one of the top three guys in the senate for that, and i am a great admirer of his work. also, Obama is not terribly unpopular in CO. he won there in 2012, and his polling there reflects the national average, so the fact that Udall is a Democrat should not hurt him in that state. what is it that is sinking his ship, IW? Udall should be COASTING to a victory, not fighting for his life. I totally agree with you on all of those points! Udall has been a good senator for this state and Gardner is the very extreme to the other side and just so out there and in your words a "weak candidate" so I just don't understand it myself. I have no explanation. However this morning the news listed a poll where Udall was closing back up to Gardner. I don't take a lot of stocks in polls because they are all so different and have been very wrong in the past. But I am not feeling confident at this point. But the good news is that the governor has overtaken that ass in the most recent polls again. So hopefully that ad has come back to bite him. The governor has never run a negative ad himself, and stated so. All his ads have been about him and what he has done for the state and that is how it should be.
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 24, 2014 23:19:13 GMT -5
Mark Uterus?
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 24, 2014 23:26:01 GMT -5
LOL the one in my mini profile. CO that font is so small i can't really see it. i want to say a few things about Colorado. the first one is that i never really thought Udall's seat was in danger. Cory is a political outsider, and when i say outside, he is WAY outside the mainstream in his views on a number of issues. there must be a very strong undercurrent of discontent with Udall, but i can't really understand why. Udall is a leader on the privacy rights issue. he is one of the top three guys in the senate for that, and i am a great admirer of his work. also, Obama is not terribly unpopular in CO. he won there in 2012, and his polling there reflects the national average, so the fact that Udall is a Democrat should not hurt him in that state. what is it that is sinking his ship, IW? Udall should be COASTING to a victory, not fighting for his life. Oh and Gardner has upset a lot of the mainstream GOP's by out right lies in his ads claiming to be for over the counter birth control and supporting wind energy which he has NEVER supported in the past. Again doing whatever he has to to win. And unfortunately the dumb voters are believing his crap!
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2014 0:30:19 GMT -5
that font is so small i can't really see it. i want to say a few things about Colorado. the first one is that i never really thought Udall's seat was in danger. Cory is a political outsider, and when i say outside, he is WAY outside the mainstream in his views on a number of issues. there must be a very strong undercurrent of discontent with Udall, but i can't really understand why. Udall is a leader on the privacy rights issue. he is one of the top three guys in the senate for that, and i am a great admirer of his work. also, Obama is not terribly unpopular in CO. he won there in 2012, and his polling there reflects the national average, so the fact that Udall is a Democrat should not hurt him in that state. what is it that is sinking his ship, IW? Udall should be COASTING to a victory, not fighting for his life. Oh and Gardner has upset a lot of the mainstream GOP's by out right lies in his ads claiming to be for over the counter birth control and supporting wind energy which he has NEVER supported in the past. Again doing whatever he has to to win. And unfortunately the dumb voters are believing his crap! i am sure that Udall is TRYING to make the message sink in that Cory is lying, but why is it not sinking in?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2014 0:31:51 GMT -5
that font is so small i can't really see it. i want to say a few things about Colorado. the first one is that i never really thought Udall's seat was in danger. Cory is a political outsider, and when i say outside, he is WAY outside the mainstream in his views on a number of issues. there must be a very strong undercurrent of discontent with Udall, but i can't really understand why. Udall is a leader on the privacy rights issue. he is one of the top three guys in the senate for that, and i am a great admirer of his work. also, Obama is not terribly unpopular in CO. he won there in 2012, and his polling there reflects the national average, so the fact that Udall is a Democrat should not hurt him in that state. what is it that is sinking his ship, IW? Udall should be COASTING to a victory, not fighting for his life. I totally agree with you on all of those points! Udall has been a good senator for this state and Gardner is the very extreme to the other side and just so out there and in your words a "weak candidate" so I just don't understand it myself. I have no explanation. However this morning the news listed a poll where Udall was closing back up to Gardner.
you mean the Keating survey? i don't know anything about it, other than it is a Democratic polling firm. don't get me wrong. partisan polls are OFTEN just as accurate as standard apolitical ones. but here is what bothers me about the Keating poll. TWO DAYS before that came out, Suffolk had him down 7, and Quinnipack had him down FIVE. it is hard to imagine that two KNOWN POLLS are wrong and one UNKNOWN POLL is right, but it is certainly possible. are there any third party kooks in this election that might draw votes from either candidate?
I don't take a lot of stocks in polls because they are all so different and have been very wrong in the past. But I am not feeling confident at this point. But the good news is that the governor has overtaken that ass in the most recent polls again. So hopefully that ad has come back to bite him. The governor has never run a negative ad himself, and stated so. All his ads have been about him and what he has done for the state and that is how it should be. i would not doubt the polls. let me ask you something else: have the Democrats made any effort to get out the vote in this election: IE, registration?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2014 0:33:02 GMT -5
Mark Uterus? it's too bad they didn't wait for the reply in that video. i would like to have heard that.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Oct 27, 2014 4:40:45 GMT -5
DJ The election is 1 week away. Time to make your FINAL prediction(s).
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 27, 2014 8:24:38 GMT -5
There is the whole problem with our country - lazy or ignorant voters and bullshitting politicians.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2014 9:51:05 GMT -5
DJ The election is 1 week away. Time to make your FINAL prediction(s). tomorrow. there are always polls done monday. edit: but i won't predict a winner if it is too close to call.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 28, 2014 14:01:13 GMT -5
DJ The election is 1 week away. Time to make your FINAL prediction(s). tomorrow. there are always polls done monday. edit: but i won't predict a winner if it is too close to call. Well, one week from today! It is interesting to say the least. Wonder if the President will show up and back any Senate candidate in the next six days? I just hope it is not a 50/50 split, as then Biden is the tie breaker.
If Republicans rule, anyone want to start a thread on the number of vetoes the President will use in the next twenty months? How about how many times the President will blame the Republicans from not wanting to compromise? I cannot count the chickens before they hatch though, as some races are too close to call.
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 28, 2014 14:11:20 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2014 16:33:22 GMT -5
HERE WE GO, BOYS AND GIRLS. HOME STRETCH!!!!! i am changing "solid" to 70% or better chance as of today.
Republican solid : 49 Democrat solid: 47
Leaning Republican: IA
Tossup: KS, GA, AK
DISCUSSION:
IA is not trending for either party, but Ernst holds about a 1% lead in most polls. KS is generally favoring the Independent in the race, but the latest YouGov poll has the GOP incumbent +4% AK is trending Democrat. Begich is +6% in the latest poll GA is a total tossup. of the last seven polls, 3 show the GOP up, 3 show Democrats up, and one shows a tie.
sorry to do this, but i can't call this for the GOP, yet. they are still at 3:2 odds of winning. i think their path to victory has narrowed SLIGHTLY. this is a super crazy nail biter. if i were to pick victors today, here is how i would call them, and why:
IA = Ernst. i loathe her. but she has put on a good campaign, and she is clearly leading. KS = Orman. i just think this is Kansas' year of strange. i suspect a LOT of GOP losses in this state this year. AK = Sullivan. Begich is still not out of the woods yet- but this one is the most dynamic of all the races at this point. GA = Nunn. i just think she has got the momentum, and she has run a picture perfect campaign.
totals = GOP 51, Dems 49, and Orman caucuses with GOP, giving them a 52:48 lead. HOWEVER- i think it is quite possible that either Ernst or Sullivan or BOTH will lose, which gives the Democrats a 52:48 caucus.
note: there might still be a few surprises out there. IE, NH is still within striking range for the GOP, and there has been some positive polling in CO and AR for Dems. i just don't think those states are likely to pop up on the radar in the next 7 days. oh, and i still don't expect either party to have a majority on election day, as GA is likely to have a December runoff election. most likely result for election is that NEITHER party has 50 seats.
final note: the way things are trending, i think that the GOP will fall to 9:7 favourite by FRIDAY.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2014 16:38:48 GMT -5
i thought Detroit was under special administrator. and if these folks think us Republicans would be better for them- look out for po folks...day cwazee.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2014 16:42:44 GMT -5
tomorrow. there are always polls done monday. edit: but i won't predict a winner if it is too close to call. Well, one week from today! It is interesting to say the least. Wonder if the President will show up and back any Senate candidate in the next six days?
i wouldn't count on it. but i would bet that Elizabeth Warren will.
I just hope it is not a 50/50 split, as then Biden is the tie breaker.
imo, this is in a very narrow range now. the max for the GOP is 51:49, with Ormon caucusing GOP, the max for Democrats is 52:48.
If Republicans rule, anyone want to start a thread on the number of vetoes the President will use in the next twenty months?
my instincts tell me it will be a big number. but when i am in a sensible mood, i don't think it will be that high.
How about how many times the President will blame the Republicans from not wanting to compromise? I cannot count the chickens before they hatch though, as some races are too close to call.
word
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2014 19:35:13 GMT -5
MORE POLLING UPDATES FROM TODAY!!!! Republican solid : 49 Democrat solid: 47
Leaning Independent: KS
Tossup: IA, GA, AKDISCUSSION: new data in on KS and IA suggests that these races are slowly slipping out of Republican grip. two new IA polls show Ernst trailing. i am adjusting my odds to 11:9 GOP, as of this hour. it is amazing how fast things are changing, now that pollsters are crowding into the swing states. at this rate, we could be a dead heat by tomorrow, but the GOP will probably bounce back. there will probably be considerable "back and forth" for the next week. and it will be brought to you with alacrity by your poll obsessed poster, djpolldancer.
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 28, 2014 19:43:40 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 10:36:53 GMT -5
Joni (Whackadoodle) Ernst just had a favorable poll from Quinnipack. Iowa is now "leaning Republican", and GOP is 3:2 favorite again.
_END BREAKING NEWS_
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 29, 2014 12:37:40 GMT -5
I saw Romney on the news this AM predicting a republican win and predicting that will end gridlock and we will finally get some important laws passed on immigration, etc. Will a republican majority end gridlock or is that magical (or political) speaking?
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 29, 2014 12:51:29 GMT -5
I saw Romney on the news this AM predicting a republican win and predicting that will end gridlock and we will finally get some important laws passed on immigration, etc. Will a republican majority end gridlock or is that magical (or political) speaking? Passed? Sure. Signed into law? Now that is an entirely different issue.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 13:16:03 GMT -5
I saw Romney on the news this AM predicting a republican win and predicting that will end gridlock and we will finally get some important laws passed on immigration, etc. Will a republican majority end gridlock or is that magical (or political) speaking? that is a complete fantasy. the Democrats will filibuster a LOT, and the president will veto a LOT.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 13:16:36 GMT -5
I saw Romney on the news this AM predicting a republican win and predicting that will end gridlock and we will finally get some important laws passed on immigration, etc. Will a republican majority end gridlock or is that magical (or political) speaking? Passed? Sure. Signed into law? Now that is an entirely different issue. they won't even pass. remember: the Democrats had 55 seats in the Senate this session.
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 29, 2014 13:23:01 GMT -5
Oh and Gardner has upset a lot of the mainstream GOP's by out right lies in his ads claiming to be for over the counter birth control and supporting wind energy which he has NEVER supported in the past. Again doing whatever he has to to win. And unfortunately the dumb voters are believing his crap! i am sure that Udall is TRYING to make the message sink in that Cory is lying, but why is it not sinking in? I really don't know why it isn't sinking in? Voter turnout for mid term elections are really not that good here. And unfortunately the GOP is better at getting out the vote than Dems are. I did my part so whatever happens happens.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 29, 2014 13:27:58 GMT -5
Passed? Sure. Signed into law? Now that is an entirely different issue. they won't even pass. remember: the Democrats had 55 seats in the Senate this session. Remember the Alamo also but not sure exactly why the Democratic majority in the Senate this session is a relevant factor in looking at the issue of Republicans passing legislation in the next Congress if they gain a majority in both chambers.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2014 13:28:56 GMT -5
www.newsmax.com/Politics/Arkansas-Senate-Tom-Cotton-Mark-Pryor/2014/10/09/id/599629/
Gap has narrowed but I'll not vote for Pryor and yes I'm from Arkansas. Why, he was the final and deciding vote to cast Obamacare. My wife works as a RN and I get a ear full everyday about how the health care system is going to hell because of this program. Never have liked Pryor and always have been a oddball myself, I live in Arkansas and am a Republican.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 13:29:25 GMT -5
they won't even pass. remember: the Democrats had 55 seats in the Senate this session. Remember the Alamo also but not sure exactly why the Democratic majority in the Senate this session is a relevant factor in looking at the issue of Republicans passing legislation in the next Congress if they gain a majority in both chambers. i already stated why. it is called the filibuster. unless the GOP wants to go nuclear.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 13:30:43 GMT -5
www.newsmax.com/Politics/Arkansas-Senate-Tom-Cotton-Mark-Pryor/2014/10/09/id/599629/
Gap has narrowed but I'll not vote for Pryor and yes I'm from Arkansas. Why, he was the final and deciding vote to cast Obamacare. My wife works as a RN and I get a ear full everyday about how the health care system is going to hell because of this program. Never have liked Pryor and always have been a oddball myself, I live in Arkansas and am a Republican. Pryor is a 9:1 favourite in my book. but thanks for commenting.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 13:33:26 GMT -5
i am sure that Udall is TRYING to make the message sink in that Cory is lying, but why is it not sinking in? I really don't know why it isn't sinking in? Voter turnout for mid term elections are really not that good here. And unfortunately the GOP is better at getting out the vote than Dems are. I did my part so whatever happens happens. i'm not going to comment further on CO at this time, for the following reason: what i do is follow the polls. the polls are saying Udall will lose. could the polls be WRONG? sure. actually, Colorado is a notoriously tough state to poll, because the Democrats have a ground game there that skews the odds in their favor slightly. that having been said, Udall is an outspoken voice for civil rights and questioning the CIA. i like him. i hope he wins. as far as i am concerned, Cory is a teabiscuit. edit: actually, i WILL comment further about Colorado if Udall can get back in this thing in the polls.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2014 13:46:06 GMT -5
www.nwahomepage.com/fulltext-news/d/story/cotton-v-pryor-could-decide-who-controls-senate/39769/BljbONeJRkCYqlyaD8QJsA
www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/arkansas-senate-election.php
I live less than 30 miles from where Cotton was born and raised, he has a foothold in this region and Pryor hasn't even shown his face in any of these counties in this area, no secret why, not enough voters to attract him. Pryor is down in the SW section of Arkansas around Texarkana now and I was born and raised there, tell you point blank he will not carry Texarkana or Miller County nor any of the surrounding counties there, people there would vote for Donald Duck before they would vote for Pryor. Cotton is holding his own in NW Arkansas where Pryor was born but the key to this election will be NE Arkansas and the Jonesboro area all farming related and of course central Arkansas with Little Rock. Cotton will win the little counties because he's been seen and I'll remind you of the last Republican to hold the Presidents Office and he did the same, won all the little states that the Dumbcrats never set foot in. Cotton will do the same.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 29, 2014 14:12:25 GMT -5
Remember the Alamo also but not sure exactly why the Democratic majority in the Senate this session is a relevant factor in looking at the issue of Republicans passing legislation in the next Congress if they gain a majority in both chambers. i already stated why. it is called the filibuster. unless the GOP wants to go nuclear. Yeah, the filibuster is why 55 last year will be relevant next year. I think with a majority in both that the Republicans would modify the rules to get presidential vetoes for them to use in the 2016 presidential campaign (even with the fact that Obama will not be the Democratic nominee).
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2014 14:26:52 GMT -5
i already stated why. it is called the filibuster. unless the GOP wants to go nuclear. Yeah, the filibuster is why 55 last year will be relevant next year. yeah. why is that puzzling to you?I think with a majority in both that the Republicans would modify the rules to get presidential vetoes for them to use in the 2016 presidential campaign (even with the fact that Obama will not be the Democratic nominee). i think that a rules change (the "nuclear option") would be a complete disaster for the GOP. do you want me to explain why?
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