dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 21, 2014 12:23:41 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 21, 2014 13:38:45 GMT -5
Hey b. People live healthier lives here witch is a big variable.. Billions live in squalor in other parts of the world. According to the Center for Aerobiological Sciences, Ebola has an aerosol stability that is comparable to Influenza-A. As we have discussed before MERS, influenza A, and filoviridae are all in the same animal/human populations - which leaves the door open for Antigenic shift.. Should be an interesting winter... |
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 21, 2014 20:03:49 GMT -5
CIDRAP Director Mike Osterholm, gives excellent talk on Ebola...
Link:
NOTES…
- Mike O. says he knows less about Ebola now than he did 6 months ago.
- In the last 40 years, there were only 24 Ebola outbreaks with only 2,400 cases total… This one is different.
- Expect the unexpected… This Ebola outbreak is like a ‘Black Swan Event’ and he expects a ‘whole rolling back-out of black swan events.
- We don’t know jack about Ebola and we shouldn’t cover this up with public relations. (PR)
- We are swimming upstream at 4 MPH and the Ebola stream is going at 6 MPH, we are losing ground.
- VACCINES… We need vaccines. He is very adamant about this. We need vaccines NOW.
- 13% of those infected with Ebola don’t get a fever making fever scanning largely ineffective.
- Top Ebola virologist, Gary Kobinger, the Head of Special Pathogens at Canada’s health agency, has found that the current strain of Ebola appears to be much worse than any strain seen before … and that the current virus may be more likely to spread through aerosols than strains which scientists have previously encountered. The viral load in the lungs was alarming…
- Mentioned pig/monkey study in Canada where monkeys contracted Ebola even though they were in separate cages.
- Don’t take this (Ebola) lightly… We need to take it very seriously.
wwwDOTyoutube.com/watch?v=UkMKUa0sxBQ (1 Minute clip if you’re short on time.)
'Ebola Czar' Ron Klain, of course is a PR expert and skilled lawyer with zero science background. Let's hope he's not using his influence to lull us into a false sense of security. With elections looming, the pressure may be on him to do just that...
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 21, 2014 20:09:36 GMT -5
Hey b. People live healthier lives here witch is a big variable.. Billions live in squalor in other parts of the world. According to the Center for Aerobiological Sciences, Ebola has an aerosol stability that is comparable to Influenza-A. As we have discussed before MERS, influenza A, and filoviridae are all in the same animal/human populations - which leaves the door open for Antigenic shift.. Should be an interesting winter... AN INTERESTING WINTER IN DEED! 
Do not have time to read all the above links, but will spend time on them tomorrow!
 God Bless America!!!
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 22, 2014 8:39:40 GMT -5
Ebola vaccine could be ready in 3 months: CEO
Hundreds of thousands of doses a new Ebola vaccine could be ready to send to West Africa within the next three months, NewLink Genetics CEO Charles Link said Tuesday.
"We think by the end of the year we could have hundreds of thousands of doses, if the dose that's chosen is a moderate-size dose," he said. "It could be hundreds of thousands of doses, maybe more."
CONTINUED: www.cnbc.com/id/102108377 |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 22, 2014 23:26:54 GMT -5
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 23, 2014 15:00:33 GMT -5
"This also means it has spread further than is being reported as well."
It will be interesting to see when it shows-up in the US again!
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damnotagain
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Post by damnotagain on Oct 23, 2014 15:18:05 GMT -5
New York Dr . Just checked into nyc hospital. Was treating patients in west Africa.
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 23, 2014 18:05:28 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 23, 2014 20:58:53 GMT -5
Well, the MD in NYC has it. More concerning than that - on the very day that the WHO voices confidence no wider spread of Ebola in Africa, Mali confirms first infection case. Since we know that cases are going unreported, the chance that this is the only case in a neighboring country is basically zero. This also means that travel from far more countries than three should be monitored, and it' far more likely now to have entered the middle east during the recent pilgrimage to Mecca. The only news story at this point is that it's out of control in west Africa and needs to be contained to the area by all means necessary. It's to the point where this is going to have to burn out. Develop a vaccine for sure, but stop acting like there is a way to get it under control because we obviously missed that opportunity.  |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 24, 2014 22:12:54 GMT -5
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 27, 2014 15:21:09 GMT -5
WHO Cites Cases With Longer Incubation Period of 42 Days
As questions of how many people the second Dallas nurse infected during her journey
to and from Dallas throw scary possibilities, a WHO situation assessment report gives
more cause for concern by stating that the incubation period of the virus has been seen
to extend to as long as 42 days in some cases.
It says that recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of
confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an
incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42-day interval.
For WHO to declare an Ebola outbreak over, a country must pass through 42 days,
with active surveillance supported by good diagnostic capacity and no new cases
detected in the period.
The organisation has also criticised rapid determination of infection within a few hours,
noting that two separate tests 48 hours apart are required before discharging a patient
or a suspected one as Ebola negative.
In assessing the situation in West Africa, WHO says fresh cases in Guinea, Liberia and
Sierra Leone show that the outbreak is not showing any sign of being controlled.
On the positive side, it is all set to declare later this week that Senegal is Ebola-free,
if no new cases are detected.
Nigeria will also get the green signal once it passes the requisite 42 days, with
active surveillance and no new cases till Monday, 20 October.
Tracing of people known to have contact with an Ebola patient reached 100%
in Lagos and 98% in Port Harcourt, a crucial step in controlling the spread of the virus.
In the case of the American nurse who took a commercial flight with 132 other
passengers, the risk factor is multiplied with every contact she made, beginning
with the immediate co-passengers, flight attendants and airline baggage handlers
to the family members she met.
The Ebola virus is believed to be able to survive outside the body for a week or
more during which time anyone who comes in contact with contaminated surface
can pick up the virus.
The death rate in the current Ebola outbreak has increased to 70% with the
toll at 4,447.
There could be up to 10,000 new cases of Ebola per week in two months,
WHO has warned.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 27, 2014 23:09:21 GMT -5
Considering they are using to unreliable number in the article b, and the fact that the girl in Mali came into contact with no less than 300 ppl....
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 29, 2014 0:14:43 GMT -5
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truthbound
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Post by truthbound on Oct 29, 2014 4:15:22 GMT -5
No it doesn't. And there is no vaccine or cure for it.
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 29, 2014 10:59:21 GMT -5
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 29, 2014 11:27:02 GMT -5
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 29, 2014 12:30:02 GMT -5
No it doesn't. And there is no vaccine or cure for it. Actually according to a Wiki link I was reading earlier they have been using Plasma from people who have recovered from it, plus there are at least two drugs out that have been used on it.
So not entirely true. Both nurses infected by caring for Duncan are now well and Ebola free.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 29, 2014 14:28:12 GMT -5
Afternoon, b! That's exactly what I'm saying. Spread through the air and can be left on surfaces from said droplets. Precisely how the flu is spread around. Now the symptoms of Ebola differ from the flu.. But then again a lot if times people have a common cold to go with the flu and the cold spreads the flu around as much as the flu does... Bottom line here, the CDC is now confirming what the US military said about Ebola about two years ago.. A good read... |
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Post by dothedd on Oct 29, 2014 15:55:34 GMT -5
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 29, 2014 16:01:55 GMT -5
Maybe it *could be easily spread, but actual experience seems to show its more like Aids than any other disease most are familiar with.
The patient who died was exposed to any number of people, we don't know how many. Because he was released from the hospital and returned less than 24 hours before the symptoms were in the most contagious state we actually have one example of how things did happen.
Two nurses who cared for him got Ebola and have recovered. Not a single other person he came in contact got Ebola including people in his family he hugged and kissed.
Zero. Zero family, zero friends, and zilch of the general public. Two nurses. None of their family, friends, or the general public they were exposed to.
That's reality.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 29, 2014 18:18:35 GMT -5
That's reality? Oh, you mean in the American centric perspective, that's reality. On the other hand, in the global perspective - to which the US is connected. The amount of cases and deaths have been grossly under reported, and in the case of patient zero, four of the five people living in the house have died. This is the reality in which the Saudi govt had declared the annual pilgrimage Ebola and MERS free, only to have to turn around and admit that a new cluster of MERS has popped up - due to colder weather.(Flu season, what's that?) This is the reality in which the amount of people living in sub standard conditions is about 6-7x the total population of the US. For instance.. Ebola outbreak will be “especially challenging” for IndiaSo ya, it's a bit concerning when the news surfaces that during cold season - AKA flu season! - Ebola can by spread by droplets just like any other flu. |
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 29, 2014 21:43:15 GMT -5
Prove it. List me all the cases that have happened this way. Yes what I posted was US centric. Too many posters here are cowering in fear, dreaming up scenarios that will not come to pass are from the US.
On another thread, Dallas nurse/Ebola, I posted some links. I believe that if you want to model this disease you have to model it after Aids, not the flu. Something it is far more comparable to.
In spite of all the scary possibilities that scientists did discover about the disease, it did not become a pandemic the way the worriers believed. Its not great, to be sure. But here's a link on death rates per 100,000 population by country.
www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hiv-aids/by-country/
Some interesting things to note, given your assertions. India has a lower rate than the US. Given what has happened in the US I do have great hope. But it probably will happen quicker if people stop believing nonsense like we can catch Ebola like we can catch the flu. Not true. If it was, Duncan should have infected at least one person that wasn't a nurse. Heck he should have infected probably at least 10 to 100 people if your belief was true.
But he didn't. That's something that should be paid attention to.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 30, 2014 1:37:11 GMT -5
You are obviously missing the point here. The CDC is now saying that Ebola could be transferable up to 1 m in droplet form. The CDC is saying this, so your issue is with them. They are also saying that these droplets can transfer to surfaces and subsequently cause infection. Air droplets and surface contact is exactly how the flu spreads around. The US military has said that one reason there could be little evidence of aerosol transmission is because of temperature and humidity - as in it needs to be cold and dry for it to happen. This is also exactly the situation with the flu - hence the term flu season. As far as Duncan's family goes, at least one of my kids get the flu once a year, but I never get sick. Again, living in the west we have luxury that most in the world don't. Also, I think you have the transmission rate of the flu pegged a little high. Plus, I think you're misinterpreting the article on India. What it says is they are scared shitless about it coming there, and are trying to take precautions before it gets there because of all the other crazy diseases that are already rampant in the population. Again, things we just don't have to deal with here. You can compare Ebola to AIDS if you want, but you can't get AIDS from blood spillage, there hasn't been an issue with dead bodies spreading AIDS around, you can't get AIDS from vomit, and saliva doesn't contain the HIV virus. Without treatment, one can live with HIV for years. Without treatment, you're likely to live for weeks with Ebola. There is no treatment for AIDS and no one have ever been cured of AIDS. While people have been cured of Ebola and there are several promising treatments in the works. Also, Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever, not an auto-immune disease - like HIV. In other words, terrible comparison, but by all means - continue. I can't control what others think. But I'm not about to stop discussing a topic just because people can't control their own fears I can tell you that. Especially since we were discussing this topic in this area of the boards well before it became national news. Just like we were discussing MERS before it became national news - and guess what? Saudi Arabia has now recorded 23 new MERS cases in the past couple weeks. Since this is the worst Ebola outbreak on record with death tolls surpassing all other outbreaks combined - with plenty of undocumented cases - I think I will wait until the spring and the outbreak in west Africa is under control before I start considering this a non issue.  |
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Post by Opti on Oct 30, 2014 8:59:37 GMT -5
My issue is with you, because you posted it here not the CDC. I am aware of the differences between AIDs and Ebola, however, my research points to them being more similar than anything else.
The CDC is saying this is possible. Not that is probable, not that it has been tested and we've decided the possible infection rate is 100%, 1%, or .0001%. Only that the possibility exists. That's why I directed you to the AIDs URL in the other thread. If you read about what they did test, and all the possibilities due to AIDs surviving in dried blood, corpses, etc. maybe you'd see the difference between possible and probable(what actually did happen).
Yes Ebola is faster which is definitely scary. However, because it is quicker and actually has a cure rate, the outlook should be seen by most people as positive. Not OMG look at the last news the CDC has released. In certain conditions AIDs can survive three weeks in dried blood. Just one example. Really, do we know for certain vomit does not spread AIDs? In RL most of us do not get vomited on ever or only by loved ones. If you realize it is a risk, you can clean it off yourself immediately and reduce your exposure. Those who have gotten vomit transmitted Ebola probably were caregivers who assisted the patient first and cleaned it off much later.
(Not finding anything conclusive on AIDs on vomit in a quick search. Since vomiting is not the same level of symptom like it is in Ebola, odds are it was not studied much.)
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 30, 2014 9:06:57 GMT -5
Not true. If you have an open cut, or ingest it you most definitely could. My guess is we really do not know yet whether one can get Ebola from blood spillage without having it touch a mucous membrane.
Much is guesses and assumptions because human experimentation isn't going to happen and research using animals is likely going to be more for developing vaccines instead of documenting all the ways one could catch the disease and transmission rates.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 30, 2014 9:36:34 GMT -5
Well, your "research" is wrong, but again believe what you want. www.aidsmap.com/Other-body-fluids/page/1320932/If you want to go all hysterical thought police on me for posting info you don't like, be my guest, just don't expect me to stop posting things you might not like because you can't handle it. Here's a thought, don't read this thread if you don't like the discussion. I'm free to share information as I see fit and since the info came from the CDC it's pertinent and relevant. Bottom line, it's very important to wash hands this winter. |
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 30, 2014 9:42:55 GMT -5
Aham, I didn't say it happened. I said it was possible. Huge difference.
Just like this virtual piece of Ebola I'm flinging. Duck, it might be contagious!   (its a droplet thrown from possibly closer than 1 meter away...    ) |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 30, 2014 11:37:55 GMT -5
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