The real party that represents the rich in America

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 20:16:18 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 2, 2014 19:59:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

what did i flip on?

If you'll save me the trouble of digging up your many claims that the GOP would be blamed (and crucified) for the government shutdown last year, let's simply assert that you've claimed as much.

Given this, how do you explain Reply #54, regarding the interests of the "Super ZIPs": "i am not following how those interests are not served by the GOP."

Jim points out these are the ZIPs most adversely impacted by a government shutdown. A government shutdown is perfectly contrary to the interests of these districts.

he never said government shutdown in that post Virgil.  what he did say was so far from that, i have no idea how i was supposed to gather that.

seriously, if i am missing something, please point it out- but i have read it three times now, and i am still not seeing it.

[Virgil Showlion]

Reply #55, immediately preceding your Reply #56:

"You're not following how the party you consider responsible for a government shutdown might not be favored by a constituency whose six-figure salaries are paid by the federal government?

Where can I help you connect those dots?"

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 20:39:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Reply #55, immediately preceding your Reply #56:

"You're not following how the party you consider responsible for a government shutdown might not be favored by a constituency whose six-figure salaries are paid by the federal government?

Where can I help you connect those dots?"

that reply was admonishing me for not making that connection in post #53, when i made my reply in post #54.  and my response was basically: no, i didn't make that connection at all- how could i possibly have done that?

i still feel that way.  there is no way i could have concluded that the "small government" comment he made had anything to do with the shutdown.  i  assumed that this was just the standard GOP plank.  if he had been as blunt about it in #53 as he was in #55, there is no way i would have responded the way i did.  NO...WAY.  the porn comment was my way of saying "wth did THAT come from?".

i feel like i am being tried ex-post-facto here.

does that make sense?

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 2, 2014 20:49:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 2, 2014 20:39:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Reply #55, immediately preceding your Reply #56:

"You're not following how the party you consider responsible for a government shutdown might not be favored by a constituency whose six-figure salaries are paid by the federal government?

Where can I help you connect those dots?"

that reply was admonishing me for not making that connection in post #53, when i made my reply in post #54.  and my response was basically: no, i didn't make that connection at all- how could i possibly have done that?

i still feel that way.  there is no way i could have concluded that the "small government" comment he made had anything to do with the shutdown.  i  assumed that this was just the standard GOP plank.  if he had been as blunt about it in #53 as he was in #55, there is no way i would have responded the way i did.  NO...WAY.  the porn comment was my way of saying "wth did THAT come from?".

i feel like i am being tried ex-post-facto here.

does that make sense?

I... think I understand.

So you do believe the Super ZIPs will vote Democrat because of the shutdown?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 21:37:48 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 2, 2014 20:49:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that reply was admonishing me for not making that connection in post #53, when i made my reply in post #54.  and my response was basically: no, i didn't make that connection at all- how could i possibly have done that?

i still feel that way.  there is no way i could have concluded that the "small government" comment he made had anything to do with the shutdown.  i  assumed that this was just the standard GOP plank.  if he had been as blunt about it in #53 as he was in #55, there is no way i would have responded the way i did.  NO...WAY.  the porn comment was my way of saying "wth did THAT come from?".

i feel like i am being tried ex-post-facto here.

does that make sense?

I... think I understand.

So you do believe the Super ZIPs will vote Democrat because of the shutdown?

if they are disproportionately government employees, i would think that would have a strong impact on their voting patterns, in the absence of anything else.  that is pretty clear from polling data: most people blame the GOP for the shutdown.

but here is the problem with anyone wanting to peg 2014 on that event.  it is TRUE that the Democrats got about a 5% bounce during the shutdown.  but as soon as the shutdown went away, the troubles with ObamaCare became front page news.  you will remember me mentioning that at the time: that the GOP was making a strategic error by not letting ObamaCare crater Obama. 

before the shutdown, Democrats lead Republicans by 1%.  DURING the shudown, they lead by 6%.  after the shutdown, ObamaCare sank the Democratic fortunes to a 2% loss.  however, in the last four months, the GOP has dropped 3%, and Democrats are ahead by 1% right now in generic balloting.  so, the question can't really be answered.  there is a LOT going on.  elections are complicated.

so, again, if you are asking me if "in the absence of all other events, would the shutdown hurt the GOP in Virginia", the answer is YES.  and Democrats are going to run the shutdown 24/7 during campaign commercials- that is absolutely certain.  but we don't live in the kind of world where the GOP has nothing to counter that.  other things happened, and will continue to happen.  that is why i am saying on the Nate Silver thread that it doesn't mean much right now.  the GOP could very easily lose the advantage they have right now in terms of enthusiasm and demographics for midterms to some really stupid event like another shutdown, or by a number of things going right for Obama (economy, ACA, or "X").  and likewise, things could get better for the GOP, and they could really hand Obama his hat.  or things might remain the same, in which case the advantage is, again, with the GOP.  and i would pin this primarily on high unemployment and negatives with the ACA, if you are wondering.

[Virgil Showlion]

OK. Fair enough.

Not particularly committal, but if you aren't sure you aren't sure. I can deal with it.

[Deleted]

Are we up by 1%? ... Based in the tone and frequency of fundraising emails I would have guessed we were down by at least 10...

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 22:21:38 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

OK. Fair enough.

Not particularly committal, but if you aren't sure you aren't sure. I can deal with it.

well, i am not committal, because i think it is very much unclear.  people generally don't vote on a single issue.  i know we have posters like ME, that will look at a candidate's foreign policy commitments and vote EXCLUSIVELY on that.  but i am not the norm.  we both know that.  what IS clear is that events that have happened SINCE the shutdown have generally worked AGAINST Democrats.  whatever advantage they may have gained has been offset by those losses.

now, if you could show me that the super ZIPS ONLY cared about the shutdown, then SURE: Democrats are a shoo-in.  but you and i both know that is NOT going to happen.  there is a counterargument here.

if you want a stronger commitment on my part, i would say how the ACA and the economy play out over the next six months will decide the midterms, NOT the shutdown.  is that committal enough?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 22:24:39 GMT -5 oped said:

Are we up by 1%? ... Based in the tone and frequency of fundraising emails I would have guessed we were down by at least 10...

Democrats are indeed +1% in generic balloting.  but don't get excited.  the GOP has about a 2.6% historical midterm advantage.  so, Democrats need to tack on another 2% to get into a tie situation, where nothing happens in the Senate or House.  i think the GOP is overconfident, just as they were in 2012, that this is NOT going to happen.  but i think they are wrong again.  in all likelihood, the economy will continue to improve, and the ACA rollout will not be Armageddon, as many have predicted (i call this egg-on-face factor). 

if the election were held today, the GOP would win the Senate.  but the same was true in March of 2012.

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 2, 2014 22:27:06 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 2, 2014 22:21:38 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

OK. Fair enough.

Not particularly committal, but if you aren't sure you aren't sure. I can deal with it.

...

if you want a stronger commitment on my part, i would say how the ACA and the economy play out over the next six months will decide the midterms, NOT the shutdown.  is that committal enough?

Sure, but it's also like saying "The sun will rise in the east tomorrow."  The importance of a one-time issue to the American voter is inversely proportional to kⁿ, where k is Mojo's constant (~ 1.0753052) and n is the number of weeks since the issue was reported 24/7 on cable news.

By the time fall 2014 rolls around, the shutdown issue will have less than 3% of the traction it did a year earlier. Scientific fact, Jack.

[djAdvocate]

Opti: if you are wondering why the GOP is down 3% since December, i would say that about 80% of it has to do with the ACA, and the rest due to the general economy (which has been weak, but growing).   think about what has been going on.  the GOP has been saying the ACA would bomb, that nobody would sign up, that it would crater employment, that they would repeal it, that they would stop it in the red states, etc etc.  none of that happened.  if you look at the numbers, the Democrats have basically been stuck at 43% the entire time.  meanwhile, the GOP has gone from 45% to 42%.  the rest has gone undecided.  this is kinda the INVERSE of what happened during the shutdown.  the GOP didn't crater AT ALL during the shutdown.  their constituency generally liked it.  in fact, their numbers ROSE 1% in the generic ballot (btw, in case you are wondering, the generic ballot really is a good measure.  it follows national campaign data within 3%).  but DEMOCRATS totally blew up: they went up 7% during the shutdown.  this is probably due to independent shift.  nobody liked the shutdown except the GOP, so independents shifted Democrat.  the opposite happened in October and November: the ACA had a miserable rollout, but Democrats were fine with it, and independents hated it, so the numbers shifted to the GOP.

it is interesting to watch.  but the only firm conclusion that can be made is that 39-40% are going to vote GOP in the next election nationally, 40-41% will vote Democrat, and independents will decide the election based on what happens between now and then.  if nothing happens, the GOP still has the advantage.  but the odds of nothing happening are about nil.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 22:39:27 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 2, 2014 22:27:06 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

...

if you want a stronger commitment on my part, i would say how the ACA and the economy play out over the next six months will decide the midterms, NOT the shutdown.  is that committal enough?

Sure, but it's also like saying "The sun will rise in the east tomorrow." 

i don't think so.  what i am basically saying is that i don't think it will be a factor in the next election, Virgil.

The importance of a one-time issue to the American voter is inversely proportional to kⁿ, where k is Mojo's constant (~ 1.0753052) and n is the number of weeks since the issue was reported 24/7 on cable news.

By the time fall 2014 rolls around, the shutdown issue will have less than 3% of the traction it did a year earlier. Scientific fact, Jack.

um...yeah.

[djAdvocate]

i want to add one final note to the discussion.

the Democrats had been losing independent vote steadily all year in 2013 until the shutdown.  they had dropped from a very dominating +7% advantage in January to a dead heat in August.  this was in a background of steady "not ready for prime time" coverage of ObamaCare, the weak recovery, and no major problems for the GOP.  the shutdown stopped that trend dead.  it is way more difficult to see ANY trends now.  the GOP and Democrats have changed leads EIGHT TIMES since then.  i think being committal to the outcome of midterms at this point is pure foolishness.  as we get closer, i will start making odds.  right now, the Senate is, imo, too close to call in November.  the GOP will likely gain seats, but i am not sure it will be enough.

[Virgil Showlion]

You really do care about this stuff, don't you?

I admire your faith, sir.

Maybe I should take a page from billis' book and just say:

[djAdvocate]

Apr 2, 2014 23:09:27 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You really do care about this stuff, don't you?

I admire your faith, sir.

Maybe I should take a page from billis' book and just say:

i don't do sports, Virgil.  if the 49rs or the US Hockey team didn't win a game for the rest of my life, i couldn't care less.  but i watch US politics very closely, and polling data even closer.  i know stupid arcane stuff, like the fact that Maine has a 3-way race is why that Angus idiot is Governer, and why he is likely to remain so.  i know that Christie was tied for 6th in the last Republican primary poll.  i know Michelle Bachmann is retiring this year.  i know Rubio doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination because he has waffled so much on immigration.  i know Rick Perry really thinks he has a shot (again).  he doesn't.  i know all kinds of crazy stupid insignificant stuff about American politics, just like a sports nut knows Ernie Bank's batting averages.

we all have our little obsessions.

[Virgil Showlion]

Obviously.

[tallguy]

just like a sports nut knows Ernie Bank's batting averages.

Well, you got me there. I do remember that he was a back-to-back MVP winner in 1958-59 and that he finished with 512 home runs.  Started as a shortstop before moving to first base.  Probably hung on a couple years too long before retiring.  (And it's "Banks" by the way.  Not Bank.) 

But hey!  "Let's play two!"  

[Value Buy]

Apr 2, 2014 23:52:57 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 2, 2014 23:09:27 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You really do care about this stuff, don't you?

I admire your faith, sir.

Maybe I should take a page from billis' book and just say:

i don't do sports, Virgil.  if the 49rs or the US Hockey team didn't win a game for the rest of my life, i couldn't care less.  but i watch US politics very closely, and polling data even closer.  i know stupid arcane stuff, like the fact that Maine has a 3-way race is why that Angus idiot is Governer, and why he is likely to remain so.  i know that Christie was tied for 6th in the last Republican primary poll.  i know Michelle Bachmann is retiring this year.  i know Rubio doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination because he has waffled so much on immigration.  i know Rick Perry really thinks he has a shot (again).  he doesn't.  i know all kinds of crazy stupid insignificant stuff about American politics, just like a sports nut knows Ernie Bank's batting averages.

we all have our little obsessions.

This is what I admire about you.

You know your stuff.

You are able to back up your arguments with data

Impressive

Of course, sometimes I think you might be some unemployed 26 year old in their parent's basement with way too much time on your hands, blowing smoke up our arrses

Virgil, Did I use the correct imoticons?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 3, 2014 0:18:48 GMT -5 tallguy said:

just like a sports nut knows Ernie Bank's batting averages.

Well, you got me there. I do remember that he was a back-to-back MVP winner in 1958-59 and that he finished with 512 home runs.  Started as a shortstop before moving to first base.  Probably hung on a couple years too long before retiring.  (And it's "Banks" by the way.  Not Bank.) 

But hey!  "Let's play two!"  

case closed.  until recently i thought he was a guitar player.

[Lizard King]

in all likelihood, the economy will continue to improve

Interesting use of "in all likelihood."

It's now been almost five years since the end of the last recession. That started around six years after the previous one, a six-year period characterized by a massive housing bubble. Before that, the gap between recessions was 10 years, fueled by the dotcom bubble (and the recession of the early 2000s was largely a result of the 9/11 terror attacks). Before that, the gap was almost eight years; this was during a period where, uniquely in modern times, one party held the Presidency for three successive terms, and the recession coincided with the 1990 oil shocks and Operation Desert Storm.

Prior to 1982, you have to go back to the 1960s to find a period longer than 5 years between recessions, and prior to that you have to go back to 1945 and a recession occasioned by the end of World War II and presaging the massive postwar boom as we were the world's only functioning industrial power. The previous interrecessionary period of 5 years or better ended in 1853.

That's six interrecessionary periods exceeding 5 years out of a total of 40 recorded recessions since the Copper Panic of 1789. Admittedly, three of those six preceded the current one, on which basis you could consider extended growth likely if you accepted that this economy bears any relation to those of the 1980s and 1990s (which would entail believing that George Bush was an economic counterpart to Reagan or Clinton). You might argue that we're still fueled by credit purchases, but the "we" there aren't the same sectors of the economy that "we" were in the 1980s - and the "we" of today have had some chickens come home to roost from the past 30 years that are dragging on growth.

I'm curious to see if you're just extrapolating from current trends, which are generally mildly positive at least at first blush, or if you think the macroeconomic instabilities of the successive bubbles we've endured in recent decades were resolved in the 2007 recession and its sequelae, or if you think there is some special factor in the current economy - the education bubble, or healthcare reform, or something else - that is going to delay the downcurve of the established business cycle.

Last May, Richard Hoey at BNY Mellon was bullish on the prospects of recession holding off until the 2016 cycle:

www.mainstreet.com/article/money/investing/next-recession-postponed-until-2016

And economists seem to be coalescing around a 3% growth figure through this year as well, which would be about where 2012 was.

But:

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-06/top-12-signs-us-economy-heading-toward-another-recession

There's always another way of looking at the economic data, isn't there?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 3, 2014 11:17:14 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

in all likelihood, the economy will continue to improve

Interesting use of "in all likelihood."

sorry to be unclear there.  i meant through November.

[Lizard King]

Apr 3, 2014 11:19:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 3, 2014 11:17:14 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

Interesting use of "in all likelihood."

sorry to be unclear there.  i meant through November.

Oh. In that case, an interesting use of "improve." Unless you mean relative to 2013, rather than relative to the last national election cycle in 2012.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 3, 2014 11:23:18 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

Apr 3, 2014 11:19:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

sorry to be unclear there.  i meant through November.

Oh. In that case, an interesting use of "improve." Unless you mean relative to 2013, rather than relative to the last national election cycle in 2012.

no, i mean relative to right now.  look, i have no crystal ball, Jim.  the economy could collapse TOMORROW.  but i just don't think so.  this has been a tepid recovery, and it has been held back by a lot of variables, most recently a stalled housing market due to lack of job growth.  i simply don't think we are going to see a decline before November, that's all.  i am pretty sure Virgil is expecting one any minute now.  are you, too?

edit: chart added.

[Mkitty is pro kitty]

Hooray! We won! We're the best at making money! Conservatives and Republicans, why aren't you joining the Democratic Party, who are obviously the best at capitalism? You aren't an Anti-American Founding Father hating Communist, Marxist, and Socialist, are you? Or do you hate the rich and corporations and are jealous of their success? Hopefully, you don't despise those job creators and just want to stay home collecting a government welfare check and leeching off the producers. Anyaways, thanks OP, this is the best news I've heard all day!

[Deleted]

well, inflation may be ready to rear it's ugly head

if that happens.....your economy prognostication will be toast



 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices recorded their largest increase in nine months in March, but that jump will probably not ignite inflation pressures as economic growth remains moderate.

The Labor Department said on Friday its seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand increased 0.5 percent last month, after slipping 0.1 percent in February. The increase last month, which was the largest since June last year, reflected a surge in the prices of food and trade services.

"Will inflation accelerate? Probably, but not rapidly," said

Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "Growing demand should stabilize prices, but the economy is not strong enough to cause inflation to pick up very much."

Economists had expected prices received by the nation's farms, factories and refineries to gain only 0.1 percent in March. Some were puzzled by the increase.

The government recently revamped the PPI series to include services and construction. Its short history made it difficult to gauge a trend, some economists said.

Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh, said harsh weather during the winter could have distorted producer prices.

"But there is also the possibility that inflation may be picking up, as firms raise prices given the recent limited acceleration in wage growth and stronger demand," said Faucher.

A survey on Tuesday showed a significant increase in the share of small businesses raising their prices this month. Fewer

reduced prices last month. Government data on Thursday showed an unexpectedly big rise in the price of imported goods in March.

news.yahoo.com/producer-prices-post-largest-gain-nine-months-123137316--business.html

we will see if this is a one month aberration or a new trend

[djAdvocate]

been waiting for this to happen for a while.  i am very heavy on metals right now.