Fear of 'Catastrophic' Crash Rising Despite Bull M

[vl]

I'm just guessing but I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of the country could care less about missing the current trend up. That same 75% probably doesn't know where the S&P is now or what the spot price of gold is. They probably don't lose much sleep because they didn't bet on yesterdays basketball games either.


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Just 75%? I'd put the figure higher. I'd also take a step back and look to what the majority IS focused on (it isn't Beiber or Idol). Most see and feel a lack of progress and are growing frustrated. Each new twist touches lives beyond its proximity. It's only a matter of time when an event triggers a large reaction. It did in 1905 and the events leading to it are eerily similar today while the people are far more aware and capable than they were back then.

[usaone]

Feb 20, 2011 16:07:29 GMT -5 @vl said:

I'm just guessing but I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of the country could care less about missing the current trend up. That same 75% probably doesn't know where the S&P is now or what the spot price of gold is. They probably don't lose much sleep because they didn't bet on yesterdays basketball games either.


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Just 75%? I'd put the figure higher. I'd also take a step back and look to what the majority IS focused on (it isn't Beiber or Idol). Most see and feel a lack of progress and are growing frustrated. Each new twist touches lives beyond its proximity. It's only a matter of time when an event triggers a large reaction. It did in 1905 and the events leading to it are eerily similar today while the people are far more aware and capable than they were back then.

Your kidding right?

How much of the country has a retirement plan?

Most of the country is watching the market.

[itstippy]

Looks like about 50% of American households have exposure to the stock market:
wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_Americans_own_stock

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Good point wxyz.

So 50% care about the markets.. Probably more, because most understand now what happens when the market tanks. So the majority of people want things to go on, and a slim minority can't see the progress.. Makes sense to me.

It's Hilarious itstippy because I can understand wanting to be on the sideline in '09. By Sept '10 when the markets starting rising and the economy pushed on, you had to know there was a little conviction. Now because the sky is falling camp was dead wrong for two years, they still use fear to keep you from making gains. Yet they are playing the market the whole time... I guess sad is a better word. It's just sad.

[neohguy]

I still think that 75% can care less. People that are still covered by company or government pension plans probably don't follow the market. The 40 million on food stamps probably don't follow it. Another 50 million that live from paycheck to paycheck don't. Same thing for the ones that are up to their eyeballs in debt. And then their are the ones that said the hell with stocks and have moved to conservative allocations and will never look back. Then there's whatever millions that have fallen through the safety net.
It would be interesting to see a random survey of 35 thousand households asking "what did the S&P close at on Friday". If they answered within 5%-8% would be a correct answer. You could use the dow 30 instead since more people seem to look at that.

[lifewasgood]

Day Traders still care!

[neohguy]

Feb 21, 2011 8:50:20 GMT -5 @lifewasgood said:

Day Traders still care!

The day traders had over a million views on the old mt board. They don't care if it goes up or down as long as they're on the correct side of the trade for 2.3 seconds.

[Deleted]

The recovery in the stock market has NOTHING to do with the recovery on main street

That is the disconnect

You seem to want employment back under 6% before reinvesting in the market.....well that will happen, but by the time it does the bull run will be over

The market...and investors look far beyond today....

I bought equities last month, that i dont expect to turn around in earnings for 18 months.....and probably wont see much stock price appreciation for a year. But i am buying at the bottom...and long term i expect a 50-75% in three years

It may be faster....but i am not EXPECTING it.....

You have to be forward looking...not backward looking

What will the economy be like in 12 months for company x....and it that better or worse than today? How will that affect the earnings and stock price? Those are the questions to ask.

And if you cant stomach a 10-15% correction which i see coming....stay in cd's or tbills. The market is NOT for you.

Investing is LONG TERM....

I dont TRADE...i invest

[usaone]

Remember...the stock market is forward looking AND we are still 2,000 points below where we were in 2007.

[lifewasgood]

Yup, just like hoping an Ace its on the River after your all in.

[usaone]

I've been all in since April 2009. That has been the correct call.

[lifewasgood]

Good diversity, all in with stocks.

[usaone]

Feb 21, 2011 10:43:11 GMT -5 @lifewasgood said:

Good diversity, all in with stocks.

So what are you complaining about?

Were going to dow 20k!

[lifewasgood]

Yup and gold is going to 5000 and silver 150, so what is your point?

[neohguy]

Feb 21, 2011 10:13:51 GMT -5 usaone said:

Remember...the stock market is forward looking AND we are still 2,000 points below where we were in 2007.

I know you're just kidding because the 2007 fall high didn't see anything coming.

[usaone]

Sure it did. Thats why it went down a full year before the collapse.

[usaone]

The stock market looks forward 6 to 12 months.

[midwesterner (banned)]

I hear a lot of 40 years worth of banker/financial education about buy and hold, it's always going up and will be better bs.

Don't you guys ever take a step back and realize your just repeating the talking points of every major finanical institution? Why else would you continue to sink monthly into a stock based 401k unless you believed in the lie of dollar cost averaging and market is a win, win always.

You guys miss the trends, you miss the change. That may have worked in the past, but you miss the changing of the guard and how we are now playing a new game, but you keep using the old rules.

We shall see how that works out for you and Q-TIPS retirement plans.

[usaone]

And what is the new game?
Gold was higher in the late 1970's.

Why didnt the dollar die then?

[usaone]

Mid

Do you pay your LANDLORD in dollars or Gold?

[lifewasgood]

money.msn.com/how-to-budget/can-you-live-on-330-a-week-mainstreet.aspx?gt1=33026

This news report does not square with the feel good market news or does it?

[usaone]

News report?

The economy is expanding.

[tyfighter3]

wxyz, I would agree with you but we are seeing different things this time around that we didn't see with ( other times in history). The last time we saw $4 per gallon gas at the pumps the market crashed because the consumer couldn't handle it. We are going to see that $4 at the pump again real soon. Can the Consumer handle that this time around? What's happening in the Mideast is a good thing but to happen so quickly isn't. The World isn't ready for it. Where to put your money, NA Energy Stocks, Ag Stocks and Big Oil. To me that's the safest bet in town right now. JMO

[frankq]

Feb 21, 2011 11:05:04 GMT -5 midwesterner (banned) said:

I hear a lot of 40 years worth of banker/financial education about buy and hold, it's always going up and will be better bs.

Don't you guys ever take a step back and realize your just repeating the talking points of every major finanical institution? Why else would you continue to sink monthly into a stock based 401k unless you believed in the lie of dollar cost averaging and market is a win, win always.

You guys miss the trends, you miss the change. That may have worked in the past, but you miss the changing of the guard and how we are now playing a new game, but you keep using the old rules.

We shall see how that works out for you and Q-TIPS retirement plans.

It will work out fine Mid because this country will continue on and so will it's businesses. If you're so anti-American why don't you just move overseas? We've been doing very well so far pud. Jeez, what a miserable loser.

[frankq]

Dear Mid's Boss,

Please don't pay Mid by check, cash, or any other legal tender. From now on please simply grant him the equivelent of his no doubt meager salary in the form of MRE's, 22 caliber ammo, assorted canned goods and water purification tablets.

[frankq]

Feb 21, 2011 17:06:26 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

wxyz, I would agree with you but we are seeing different things this time around that we didn't see with ( other times in history). The last time we saw $4 per gallon gas at the pumps the market crashed because the consumer couldn't handle it. We are going to see that $4 at the pump again real soon. Can the Consumer handle that this time around? What's happening in the Mideast is a good thing but to happen so quickly isn't. The World isn't ready for it. Where to put your money, NA Energy Stocks, Ag Stocks and Big Oil. To me that's the safest bet in town right now. JMO

One thing to consider: The Middle East doesn't necessarily want oil prices to go too high believe it or not. The oil exporters realize that at some point, if the price gets high enough, importing nations will jump on alternatives out of necessity, and once that road gets travelled there is no way back. There is such a thing as killing the goose that laid those golden eggs, and out of control oil prices could be economic suicide for some nations. Imagine how oil producing nations would undercut each other for more share of a shrinking market.

[tyfighter3]

Yes, but how many years will Alternatives take to replace it and what will happen in the mean time. Risk that has to be taken into account. Who will be the Ruling Parties in the Mideast a year from now? They may kill their Golden Goose with out really trying or wanting to.

[lifewasgood]

I don't see any alternative energy sources that can have a significant impact on Oil dependence within 5 years. Increasing oil prices will do harm to the economy as it will escalate inflation and putting more folks in the poverty cross-hairs.

Noticed how it didn't take long for Silver to dive through 34 on the opening of the overseas markets.

Fear is everywhere in the world right now and it will continue for the foreseeable future.

[vl]

"We are bouncing along the bottom with the general economy and real estate markets. LONG TERM the only direction for the stock markets is up...way up, from here. When the general economy does turn and start back it will make the last two years of 100% stock market gains look like a correction.

gdgyva is RIGHT ON in the above post. If you are a long term oriented "investor" the long trend is going to be great. And.....yes there is a huge disconnect between the general economy and stocks right now just as there was in the early 80's and many other times in history."

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No it won't. You seem to forget ALL of our conversations on the old boards. While a "general" economy is scraping the bottom and button pushers are simulating existence, the victims who lost pensions, jobs, homes, savings and more have had to resort to a basic survival format. That doesn't mean stick fires in former living rooms and roasting snared yard bunnies over it. Savvy people use coupons and floor plan cycles to undermine retail, which thwarts analysis and bookkeeping manipulation. What we have here is an economy that LOOKS like a tradition downturn because of controls and steerage. What you fail to grasp is-- that even if we all go back to work, those who embraced survival tactics won't lose them, they will employ controls and steerage funded by those new jobs.
In short-- every attempt to lift wealth by market prosperity will be wrung out before it shows up on the financials, therefore, the profits won't belong to the retailer but to the customer-underminer. If retailers stop coupons and change floor plan cycles, there will be serious shifts in where people shop and what price they pay as online competitors merely have to stick with the old plans and offer identical stock at discount prices (which will absolutely be the fact as inflation kicks in). Sorry... but this is nothing like the 80's or any other downturn. Everyone who bought into this as a cyclical event is in for a rude and costly lesson.
REAL PEOPLE don't invest in markets, stocks, bonds or old-style commodities when there is so much more wealth under the noses of Wall Streeters and right before the eyes of Main Streeters.

[usaone]

V_L more regular investors are now getting back into the market.

More and more every week.

If you want to dig your heals in and pretend its not happening thats fine.