Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 5:57:24 GMT -5
The latest: Data on housing starts and building permits gets as bad as bad as it's ever been.
VirgilBot TP v0.01 Started Thread Port on 12/24/2010
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Virgil Showlion
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 5:58:40 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #1 - 07/08/09 06:04 PMWelcome to Green Shoots Corner Where bullish investors can justify their faith in the imminent recovery of the US economy by posting about the green shoots (now sprouting up everywhere) they happen across in their daily browsing. Why look. Here's one now: [ finance.yahoo.com/news/US-credit-card-defaults-rise-rb-15527409.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=] U.S. credit card defaults rise to record in May  U.S. credit card defaults rose to record highs in May, with a steep deterioration of Bank of America Corp's (NYSE:[finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AiQIOqp1Yb.Tr6QdUralHPL9ba9_?s=bac] BAC - [finance.yahoo.com/q/h;_ylt=Ap7LAo54nXe6dNoyiHxX1vv9ba9_?s=bac] News) lending portfolio, in another sign that consumers remain under severe stress. And look, over there: [ www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5670KD20090708] U.S. apartment vacancies near historic high: report The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments reached its highest level in more than 20 years in the second quarter and could soon exceed record highs if the recession persists, real estate research firm Reis Inc said. Why, it's an unemployment green shoot: [ www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/06/19/business/main5097357.shtml] Unemployment Hits Record Highs In 8 States The unemployment rate in the West jumped over 10 percent last month, the first time that regional threshold has been broken in about 25 years. On the state level, eight set record-highs, and only two - Nebraska and Vermont - did not report increases. And... is that?... No! It couldn't be... [ www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/continuing-claims-exhaustion-rate/] Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” Spikes Last week, we saw Continuing Claims decrease · proof, said the green shooters, of the imminent economic recovery. Only, not so much. Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg will note the ·exhaustion rate· for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE · reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits. The latest data for EXHTRATE is [ ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/5159report.asp] here. Thought weeding out all the corruption at the Fed (thereby impeding their ability to print the nation into oblivion) was a terrible idea? Here's another green shoot just for you: [ www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/comments/8yzdk/democrats_use_procedural_tactic_to_block_progress/] Democrats use procedural tactic to block progress of the "Audit the Federal Reserve" Bill in the Senate And let's not forget those green shoots in the housing markets: [ www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosure4-2009jul04,0,5145254.story] Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike Mortgage defaults have surged to record levels amid rising unemployment and falling home prices. Lenders are expected to move quickly to clear up backlogs as moratoriums on foreclosures expire. Yes. So many green shoots. So little time. There's a little something for everyone. Share yours, and let the shoots shine upon us all! ( Apologies for a JP-esqe rant, but this is just getting ridiculous...)
neohguyMessage #2 - 07/08/09 06:35 PMHow does the Vancouver bud crop look this year?
Virgil SyonidMessage #3 - 07/08/09 06:55 PMHow does the Vancouver bud crop look this year? I don't know. But somebody must be making money somewhere. [ www.byebyeblighty.com/1/canadian-average-house-price-reaches-record-high/] Canadian Average House Price Reaches Record High  Since our employment numbers are dropping, maybe there's a hidden "Grow-Op Jumbo Prime" mortgage market keeping the whole thing afloat. 
flag_usaMessage #4 - 07/08/09 07:03 PM
neohguyMessage #5 - 07/08/09 07:13 PMI heard that Hawaii has a record low occupancy rate for hotels. Vancouver must be doing something right because it is getting favorable press here in spite of the weak dollar and strong Canadian loonie. www.webehigh.com/city/detail.php?CITYID=2024 following article about Hawaii occupancy: www.mercurynews.com/travel/ci_12769218 Hawaii hotel occupancy drops to record low The Associated Press Posted: 07/07/2009 11:09:11 AM PDT Updated: 07/07/2009 11:13:11 AM PDT
outaheresoonMessage #6 - 07/08/09 07:13 PMIs that brown stuff I see around the base of those green shoots government BS?
Virgil SyonidMessage #7 - 07/08/09 07:35 PMneoh, here's our Canadian 'green shoot'. [ news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/abc/home/contentposting.aspx?isfa=1&feedname=CTV-TOPSTORIES_V3&showbyline=True&date=true&newsitemid=CTVNews%2f20090708%2fPBO_report_090708] Deficit predicted to hit $155.9B over next 5 years Good news is that the Central Bank and Parliament here don't seem to have quite the same schism with reality as the White House and US Treasury. Even Flaherty has enough tact to admit that the recession won't be over by August and that 'green shoots' are a fiction. The 'good news', if you can call it that, is that the waves of pessimism are driving down the value of the dollar more into the territory where our exporters would like it. Is that brown stuff I see around the base of those green shoots government BS? It's Weed-n-Fed.
PL1968Message #8 - 07/08/09 07:44 PMBut hey the market manipulators have brought the stock market from the brink right around the 3:00 hour. You can set your watch to it.
neohguyMessage #9 - 07/08/09 07:49 PMGood news is that the Central Bank and Parliament here don't seem to have quite the same schism with reality as the White House and US Treasury. Yea, O&G said that the European and Asian banks were more transparent than the US banks also. I wish that news would make the news in the US. For a land that has the right of freedom of the press, well, the press does not say much about anything worthwhile. The US newscasters do have the best hair stylists in the world though!
PL1968Message #10 - 07/08/09 07:54 PMThey're too busy scrambling outside Michael Jackson's funeral so they can get a good shot at all the celebs entering. Its a lot of work.
mlsjapan07Message #11 - 07/08/09 09:31 PMThe US newscasters do have the best hair stylists in the world though! neohguy, I think you mean news ACTORS.  LOL.
Virgil SyonidMessage #12 - 07/08/09 09:51 PMThe US newscasters do have the best hair stylists in the world though! Demand for Brylcreem is soaring! Another green shoot!  My favourite critique of the MSM has long-since been this original from [ sendables.jibjab.com/originals/what_we_call_the_news] Jib-Jab.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 5:59:45 GMT -5
darvey76Message #13 - 07/08/09 09:57 PMSpeaking of green shoots, I've got a whole lot of them in my back yard,time to mow,got to go.
Falling Sky - NotMessage #14 - 07/08/09 10:28 PMAfter much thought I've got a green shoot - This is the mildest Depression we have experienced in about 80 years! 
itstippyMessage #15 - 07/08/09 11:44 PMGiant SUV's are no longer status symbols, fingernail and tanning salons are going broke for lack of customers, weddings are less ostentatious. Everywhere you look, conspicuous consumption is out and value is in. Will this new attitude stimulate an economic recovery in 2nd half of 2009? Nope. It is, however, a fragile green shoot toward a sustainable, quality lifestyle in the good ol' USA. "A stitch in time saves nine" (routine maintenance avoids costly repair) and "A penny saved is a penny earned" (don't blow your paycheck on overpriced crap) were once considered sage advice and bedrocks of American economics. Folks are starting to appreciate their "Benjamins" again. That has to be good. "Large streams from little fountains flow, Tall oaks from little acorns grow." (not a Benjamin, but germane).
Virgil SyonidMessage #16 - 07/09/09 02:50 AMThis is the mildest Depression we have experienced in about 80 years! We hope.  Giant SUV's are no longer status symbols, fingernail and tanning salons are going broke for lack of customers, weddings are less ostentatious. Giant SUV's, tanning salons, manicures, fancy weddings, new drapes, new fridge, new lawnmower, weekly "night out", minor repair work on the car, A/C repairs, organic foods, high-speed internet, new workboots, high-quality meat, long distance plan, major repair work on the car, monthly "night out", breads/cereals, dental insurance, fridge repairs, mid-speed internet, cosmetics, fuel, car insurance, winter coat, mid-quality meat, fruits/vegetables, any internet, semi-annual "night out", books, phone plan, tools, mortgage payments, bus pass, workclothes, low-quality meat, cheap bicycle, electricity, low-quality meat, toiletries, clothes, shelter, food, water, air, McDonalds. On the destite-o-meter, most people are still pretty high on the scale.
ungenteelMessage #18 - 07/09/09 03:50 AMor ... perhaps one could say, consumer goods, made offshore and a service economy ... do not make for a sustainable economy it appears we need to manufacture, construct, plant and mine to have an economic future
Take it AgainMessage #20 - 07/09/09 04:38 AMWell, I see all the green shoots are just the DAISIES pushing up over the grave plot  !
neohguyMessage #21 - 07/13/09 08:09 PMFinally. The bank problems are behind us.
Virgil SyonidMessage #22 - 07/13/09 08:23 PMFinally. The bank problems are behind us. Duff's article about the program trade reporting made me sick. Good night, America.
Virgil SyonidMessage #23 - 07/13/09 11:30 PMMore blazing green shoots from [ www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.09/hell.html] The Silver Bear Cafe : What else would you call non-financial growth in the early nineties, which averaged $565 billion annually that peaked at $3.545 trillion in 2007? Does that sound like monetary sanity? This was the massive system of credit that inflated asset prices, incomes, corporate profits and government revenues. This caused the wild orgy of consumption, services, including de-industrialization and massive imports spawned by free trade, globalization, offshorting and outsourcing. Those horrendous events will take decades to reverse. Who can call prudent or reasonable the creation of those combined Treasury, GSE and MBS obligations surging $1.949 trillion, or 15.3% in 2008 to $14.709 trillion? This is called Ponzi finance dynamics. The word is bubble and that bubble is still being sustained. How does Sir Alan justify Total Mortgage Debt growth from the 90s averaging $269 billion to $1 trillion by 2003 and $1.390 trillion in 2006? ABC, asset backed securities, went from $200 billion in 2003 and beyond $800 billion in 2006. MBS doubled in four years to $4.5 trillion by the end of 2007. That was the bad news; unfortunately there is worse news on the way. Today's credit crisis finance bubble will make the residential and commercial bubble look like a joke. Multiply by 5 or 10. Who knows where this can end up? The bomb is in the air and hasn't even hit yet. The quality of Treasury, GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), CDO and ABS falls every day. The debt is massive and it is not producing real economic wealth creation. This is a tremendous drag on the system. Wage increases are miniscule, inflation grows as purchasing power falls as does general confidence. There is major misallocation of assets and a maladjusted economic structure that can only end in dire inflationary consequences. The private creation of real jobs has generated about 100,000 jobs a year and the public sector more than double that, or 240,000 a year. Most jobs created over the past ten years have been low paying. 290,000 have been created in healthcare, 157,000 in food and drinking establishments and 139,000 in government education. Declining jobs, free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing, have decimated living standards and have caused a massive transfer of wealth to BRICs; OPEC and slave labor countries that cheapen their currencies by manipulating them and by subsidizing their industries. In just the first quarter GDP fell 5.5% due to a decline in inventories and trade. The 37.3% decline in business investment and inventories was a record. The greatest decline since 1947 when records began. The 38.8% decline in homebuilding is the largest contraction since 1980. And excellent article, with a good summary of all the wonderful 'green shoot' statistics to date. If you're still not convinced, he takes a shot at Goldman. Incidentally, Chapman is bullish on Canadian Treasuries, which I think is premature. If the US goes to pot, so do we, stable banking system or no.
DuffminsterMessage #24 - 07/14/09 12:18 AM'Green Shoots' of Recovery? Don't Fall for the Media's Economic Triumphalism
[www.alternet.org/workplace/140758/%27green_shoots%27_of_recovery_don%27t_fall_for_the_media%27s_economic_triumphalism/] www.alternet.org/workplace/140758/%27green_shoots%27_of_recovery_don%27t_fall_for_the_med27s_economic_triumphwithout letting the taxpayers off the hook for future losses) in order to escape limits on executive pay and other watery "conditions" attached to the public's largesse (Goldman Sachs' research department has been out front in shaping the green shoots narrative). The Obama administration is fending off conservative charges that his stimulus package -- of which only a small fraction has actually been spent in the four short months since Congress approved it -- is a failure. The Fed and other institutions are anxious about foreign investors' perceptions of the U.S. economy's overall health, and economic reporters and pundits are loath to admit that they've been sleeping with the fetid corpse of a dead economic paradigm known as Reaganomics. [/Color][/blockquote] Moreover, much of the business establishment has an interest in heading off any attempt to fundamentally transform the economy. After all, when things go south in the 21st century, the big fish are protected -- they get a bailout. So we need to ask not only if a recovery is really over the horizon, but also what it might look like. Structural Imbalances Remain Consumer spending in the U.S. accounts for not only about 70 percent of American economic activity, but also about a sixth of the planet's. Gallup [www.gallup.com/poll/120866/Weekly-Economic-Wrap-Spending-Continues-to-Wither.aspx?CSTS=alert] notes that consumer confidence is edging up -- thanks in part, no doubt, to all the talk of green shoots -- but (self-reported) consumer spending has plummeted by a whopping 41 percent compared to the same time last year. This is the [www.alternet.org/workplace/101869/if_we_get_through_this_crisis,_we%27ll_face_another_in_5_to_10_years_--_here%27s_why/] culmination of a long-term problem. Most people's wages have not been stagnant in recent years-- it's worse than that. For more than three decades the real incomes of all but those in the top 10 percent of the economic pile have actually declined. We kept up our lifestyles, though -- first through massive numbers of women joining the workforce, and later by running deep into debt. That central economic disconnect has only [www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/02/AR2009050202207.html?hpid=topnews] accelerated with the recession.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:00:37 GMT -5
DuffminsterMessage #25 - 07/14/09 03:27 PMGovernment Golden Goose Good For Goldman Sachs Profits
www.cnbc.com/id/31904153
Though it may now be debatable that what·s good for General Motors [data.cnbc.com/quotes/GLMOP] [GLMOP 23.3181 --- UNCH (0)  ] is good for America, it·s even more of a stretch to suggest that what·s good for Goldman Sachs [data.cnbc.com/quotes/] [ Loading... () ] is good for America and represents some economic barometer.
If anything, [www.cnbc.com/id/31894821/] Goldman’s handsome profits are a barometer of the government·s bailout of the financial system, from the straight-up handout mechanism called TARP to the Federal Reserve·s less direct, but probably more beneficent, policy of rock bottom interest rates and other favorable lending facilities.
The massive stock market rally from April to June and the fixed income bonanza triggered by a flight to safety no doubt helped. Goldman·s profits are good for Goldman and perhaps a few other financial institutions, whose stock prices may benefit from the collateral impact. [www.cnbc.com/id/31894821/] Goldman Profits In Detail Borrowing money from Uncle Sam for virtually nothing and then loaning it at a 300-400-basis-point margin should be profitable. Of course, with weak loan demand and tightened borrowing standards, Goldman is hardly throwing money at the crowd, although it is turning away people at the door. This is not government aid that has to be paid back. It is a gift that keeps giving. Imagine if GM was able to that, if the federal government essentially subsidized its production cost and thus fattened its profit margin.
Goldman·s far profits are more likely to gush up to senior management than trickle down to business and consumers, who are still feeling the crunch. If Uncle Sam helped facilitate a huge reduction in the rate of my mortgage or home equity loan, I·d have a lot more cash on hand. In the current environment, thought, that does not mean I would go on a spending binge or spread it around. Financial firms can also count on more support in the months ahead, as they collect billions in fees from the government·s massive foreclosure mitigation program, as they restructure mortgages. The big four banks (JPMorgan Chase[data.cnbc.com/quotes/JPM] [JPM 34.83  0.12 (+0.35%) ] , Citigroup [data.cnbc.com/quotes/C] [C 2.85 0.07 (+2.52%) ] , Wells Fargo [data.cnbc.com/quotes/WFC] [WFC 24.40  -0.40 (-1.61%) ] , Bank of America [data.cnbc.com/quotes/bac] [BAC 12.94 -0.05 (-0.38%) ] ) control more than half of all loans being serviced. Some three to four million million loans could fall under the Obama administration·s Making Home Affordable program. At best, Goldman·s profits may be a very, early leading indicator of some bottoming of the economy, but if the company isn·t doing well after all of the support-direct and indirect·we should be worried.
Just enter your preferred display name belowMessage #26 - 07/14/09 04:00 PMthings are continuing to get worse at an even faster pace now. the end is here folks. the world will no longer build valuable things for us and expect us to pay for them with useless dollars. the free ride our service economy has gotten off the labor of others is over. it's time we went back to work and built things of value. It's sad that our soldiers defending our country in Iraq and Afganistan are only making like $40,000 a year and the Wall Street bankers who stole our 401K pension plan money are not in jail and are still making on average over $500,000 a year. What a totally corrupt country we have become.
neohguyMessage #27 - 07/17/09 04:17 PMThis is good news. Michigans unemployment rate is only 15.2%. It was as high as 16.9% in 1982. news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090717&id=10153739 ... The rate in Michigan surpassed 15 percent, the first time any state hit that mark since 1984....Home to America's struggling auto makers, Michigan has been clobbered by lost factory jobs. Its jobless rate of 15.2 percent in June was the highest in the U.S... While Michigan's rate was the highest in the U.S. in June, the record-high for the state was 16.9 percent in November 1982.
angelqueekMessage #28 - 07/17/09 05:06 PMSome people are so lacking in conscience that they think it is a good thing to profit off others' misfortunes. Glad I'm not them when karma comes to call.
jma23Message #29 - 07/17/09 06:20 PMJust got appraisel notices for 6 empty lots I own in a subdivision showing their value increasing over 150% since 2007 There are 3 foreclosure signs and two for sale signs within line of sight of those lots and nothing has been bought or sold there since 2004 , The answer from the county appraiser was similar lots in the county will sell for that much. When I asked where in the county, they weren't sure. Looks like my lawyer will be getting more work again. It's either pay him or higher taxes it's getting harder to win these days.
DuffminsterMessage #30 - 07/17/09 08:26 PMjma23, That sucks! Forgive the childish language but I think I know a little about how you might feel. I just found out that because I don't use my credit card enough Bank of America just cut my credit line in half even though I have perfect FICO and almost no debt. I"m changing bankers. In the mean time. Bankruptcy Filings up 33 Percent over a 12-month Period: Total 12-month Total of Bankruptcy Filings 1.2 Million. In last Report, Filings up 27 Percent in one month. www.mybudget360.com/bankruptcy-filings-up-33-percent-over-a-12-month-period-total-12-month-total-of-bankruptcy-filings-12-million-in-last-report-filings-up-27-percent-in-one-month/ Bankruptcy filings are soaring in the United States. In the last data point, we had 134,282 bankruptcy filings for the month of March 2009. Bankruptcy data usually lags 3 or 4 months but the trend is ominous. For the last 12 months some 1.2 million bankruptcy filings have occurred. Much of this is linked to the [ www.mybudget360.com/the-second-derivative-employment-and-the-mounting-job-losses-measuring-the-velocity-of-job-cuts-in-the-current-recession/] 26,000,000 unemployed or underemployed Americans being unable to pay their bills or even service their debt. What is more telling is the amount of Chapter 7 bankruptcies occurring since these are straight liquidations and not like a Chapter 13 restructuring. Let us examine the most recent data for bankruptcies that highlight this troubling trend: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/bankruptcy.png]  What you·ll notice is a significant spike in the March data point. This monthly jump was enormous. This was the largest number of quarterly bankruptcy filings since December of 2005 when many were rushing to beat the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005. Yet even with the law making it harder for people to file bankruptcy, most are being [ www.mybudget360.com/the-new-american-austerity-getting-by-with-less-debt-and-less-money-in-what-sectors-are-americans-spending-less-money/] forced into austerity and it is hard to squeeze anything further out of a turnip. What this tells us is that for average Americans there is still a significantly large amount of pain in the real economy. The [ www.mybudget360.com/the-second-derivative-employment-and-the-mounting-job-losses-measuring-the-velocity-of-job-cuts-in-the-current-recession/] unemployment rate is understated by the 9.5 percent headline number. Below is data showing quarterly bankruptcy filings: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/filings-by-quarter.png]  It is interesting to note, that even during the supposedly boom times of this decade, there were more people filing bankruptcy than during the bust since the recession started in December of 2007. The new bankruptcy legislation is designed to make it much harder for borrowers to file but ironically, during this same time banks have been having nearly unlimited borrowing power from the [ www.mybudget360.com/us-treasury-and-fed-determined-to-destroy-dollar-and-force-savers-to-spend-investing-in-a-government-hoping-for-a-us-dollar-collapse/] U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. As I discussed in a [ www.mybudget360.com/sl-crisis-part-two-are-we-repeating-mistakes-from-the-sl-crisis-accounting-sleight-of-hand-and-mortgage-fraud/] previous article the Federal Reserve will protect banks before it seeks to protect consumers. The major sticking points of the 2005 legislation requires means tests, higher filing fees, mandatory credit counseling, and other obstacles preventing people from filing bankruptcy. If you put enough hurdles, you will see a decline. But let us flip the tables for a second. Imagine if we required this from banks that we have been bailing out. Have we had them go through ·credit counseling· or have we required them to go through means tests? If anything, they have been given the money simply because they demanded it. For the consumer bankruptcy is the last option but for banks, the only option is a taxpayer funded bailout. But as the times have gotten tougher in this recession, there really isn·t much a bank can do when someone has lost their job and is unable to pay their bills. By any standard, someone who has no money will fall below the median household income for that state. [ www.mybudget360.com/how-much-does-the-average-american-make-breaking-down-the-us-household-income-numbers/] The average American household brings in roughly $46,000 to $50,000 per year so there isn·t much room to maneuver. With credit drying up, this was virtually the last lifeline. And banks refuse to lend because now after a decade of lax lending they are now verifying basic levels of capital and collateral: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/excess-reserves.png]  [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/lending.png]  Banks are holding tight to the funds because they want to avoid their own bankruptcy. Consumers are left to their own devices. As the year goes on, we can expect surging levels of bankruptcy creating further writedowns for banks. A $50,000 credit card debt that once was an asset for a bank can quickly t
Stay PutMessage #32 - 07/17/09 10:22 PMD son met ruff, other than attacking decoy, do you actually have any contribution to add to any string? Let me make it easier for you. Do you have any position that you stand for, that you can supply supporting data, other than attacking decoy that is? Grow up. You disagree with him. We get it. Now move on and tell us what you think about the market or the economy and why you think that way.
randy47Message #33 - 07/17/09 11:03 PMThe green shoots you are seeing is your money flying out the window!!
DuffminsterMessage #34 - 07/17/09 11:11 PMSomehow this green shoot was obfuscated by the D son met ruff post and so I'm putting it back in part: Bankruptcy Filings up 33 Percent over a 12-month Period: Total 12-month Total of Bankruptcy Filings 1.2 Million. In last Report, Filings up 27 Percent in one month. www.mybudget360.com/bankruptcy-filings-up-33-percent-over-a-12-month-period-total-12-month-total-of-bankruptcy-filings-12-million-in-last-report-filings-up-27-percent-in-one-month/ Bankruptcy filings are soaring in the United States. In the last data point, we had 134,282 bankruptcy filings for the month of March 2009. Bankruptcy data usually lags 3 or 4 months but the trend is ominous. For the last 12 months some 1.2 million bankruptcy filings have occurred. Much of this is linked to the [ www.mybudget360.com/the-second-derivative-employment-and-the-mounting-job-losses-measuring-the-velocity-of-job-cuts-in-the-current-recession/] 26,000,000 unemployed or underemployed Americans being unable to pay their bills or even service their debt. What is more telling is the amount of Chapter 7 bankruptcies occurring since these are straight liquidations and not like a Chapter 13 restructuring. Let us examine the most recent data for bankruptcies that highlight this troubling trend: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/bankruptcy.png] What you·ll notice is a significant spike in the March data point. This monthly jump was enormous. This was the largest number of quarterly bankruptcy filings since December of 2005 when many were rushing to beat the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005. Yet even with the law making it harder for people to file bankruptcy, most are being [ www.mybudget360.com/the-new-american-austerity-getting-by-with-less-debt-and-less-money-in-what-sectors-are-americans-spending-less-money/] forced into austerity and it is hard to squeeze anything further out of a turnip. What this tells us is that for average Americans there is still a significantly large amount of pain in the real economy. The [ www.mybudget360.com/the-second-derivative-employment-and-the-mounting-job-losses-measuring-the-velocity-of-job-cuts-in-the-current-recession/] unemployment rate is understated by the 9.5 percent headline number. Below is data showing quarterly bankruptcy filings: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/filings-by-quarter.png] It is interesting to note, that even during the supposedly boom times of this decade, there were more people filing bankruptcy than during the bust since the recession started in December of 2007. The new bankruptcy legislation is designed to make it much harder for borrowers to file but ironically, during this same time banks have been having nearly unlimited borrowing power from the [ www.mybudget360.com/us-treasury-and-fed-determined-to-destroy-dollar-and-force-savers-to-spend-investing-in-a-government-hoping-for-a-us-dollar-collapse/] U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. As I discussed in a [ www.mybudget360.com/sl-crisis-part-two-are-we-repeating-mistakes-from-the-sl-crisis-accounting-sleight-of-hand-and-mortgage-fraud/] previous article the Federal Reserve will protect banks before it seeks to protect consumers. The major sticking points of the 2005 legislation requires means tests, higher filing fees, mandatory credit counseling, and other obstacles preventing people from filing bankruptcy. If you put enough hurdles, you will see a decline. But let us flip the tables for a second. Imagine if we required this from banks that we have been bailing out. Have we had them go through ·credit counseling· or have we required them to go through means tests? If anything, they have been given the money simply because they demanded it. For the consumer bankruptcy is the last option but for banks, the only option is a taxpayer funded bailout. But as the times have gotten tougher in this recession, there really isn·t much a bank can do when someone has lost their job and is unable to pay their bills. By any standard, someone who has no money will fall below the median household income for that state. [ www.mybudget360.com/how-much-does-the-average-american-make-breaking-down-the-us-household-income-numbers/] The average American household brings in roughly $46,000 to $50,000 per year so there isn·t much room to maneuver. With credit drying up, this was virtually the last lifeline. And banks refuse to lend because now after a decade of lax lending they are now verifying basic levels of capital and collateral: [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/excess-reserves.png] [www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/lending.png] Banks are holding tight to the funds because they want to avoid their own bankruptcy. Consumers are left to their own devices. As the year goes on, we can expect surging levels of bankruptcy creating further writedowns for banks. A $50,000 credit card debt that once was an asset for a bank can quickly t
schrizoMessage #36 - 07/18/09 01:33 AMGreen shoots believers read post "Cash 4 clunkers leaves GM in the dust".
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Virgil Showlion
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Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:03:32 GMT -5
BeerfanMessage #37 - 07/19/09 02:41 PMneohguy said: How does the Vancouver bud crop look this year? Like crap as usual. Come to California where we can do it in nature!
neohguyMessage #38 - 07/19/09 07:10 PMI've always advocated that we should buy products produced in this country first.
ComoKateMessage #39 - 07/20/09 03:52 AM"Attack" is such an ugly word. Wouldn't you agree. Now if on the other hand I called someone, oh let's say, "sleazy, white trash, **** dumpster mother", I can see how that might be construed as an "attack". Or if I called someone a "white trash mother". Once again I can see how the word "attack" could be used. But you know, I really didn't call Decoy 409 any names.
I believe it's called "trash talk" or "smack talk" and neither one is appreciated here. It never fails to amaze me how rude people can be when hidden by the anonymity of an internet alias verses a real name. Internet trolls, pimple-faced 14 year olds, people with personality disorders and their like are all on equal footing when posting anonymously. I am so sorry if I left the wrong impression. Oh, I think you have given us quite an accurate impression. Apparently I have been under the wrong impression about this "Message Board". I thought this was suppose to be about "Market Talk". It turns out this "Message Board" is about almost anything but "Market Talk". Of course I could go on but then I would just be contributing to the fact that this has nothing to do with "Market Talk". Isn't that the irony to this whole thing? Oh, let's not forget your other inquiry. I think the market will go up and it will go down. And I base that on history. Oh look, the Dow is up 30 some points. Now there's some "Market Talk". The financial market is in a shambles as is the rest of our economy. People are hurting, outraged, venting, and sometimes even offering helpful suggestions as to how to prevent another crisis of this kind from repeating. Even the "experts" are lacking any concrete answers, and many of those "experts" were involved in creating our crisis...I'd rather read what my fellow posters here have to say at this point. Markets are driven by the irrational acts, fears and hopes of people. Getting a pulse on those can be an invaluable resource to those who want to take a chance on the crap shoot we call the stock market. Yes, the market can go up again. It went up again after the crash of 1929, though it took 26 years to get back to the level it had previously enjoyed. I'm sure those people who were 65-70+ years old in 1929 didn't mind waiting....
DuffminsterMessage #40 - 07/20/09 06:13 PMWell, "economists" now believe that the recession is already over. Another green shoot, leading economist from the "whatever the government reports is true" school of economics say recession is already over. Talk about MOPE (management of economic perspective economics): Recession in U.S. May Have Already Ended, Leading Index Shows www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMKZYfjyvGek July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Components of the index of leading economic indicators are signaling the worst U.S. recession in five decades may be over now, not three to six months from now. Less-known elements of the [www.conference-board.org/] Conference Board·s report, including ratios and diffusion indexes, bolster the view the contraction has ended. The leading index, a gauge of the economic outlook over the next two quarters, rose 0.7 percent in June, a third consecutive gain, the New York-based research group said today. ·The process of coming out of the recession, although still fragile, may be starting,· Ataman Ozyildirim, a Conference Board economist that tracks the business cycle, said in an interview. ·If it continues in this way, the NBER committee will look back and tell us the recession ended.· A committee of the [wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html] National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the accepted arbiter of when recessions begin and end. The group announced in July 2003 that the last recession had ended in November 2001, indicating their deliberations take time. Several requirements within the Conference Board·s report that economists say need to be fulfilled before a contraction is officially considered over were checked off the list in June. Those were: three straight gains in the [www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RTCL%3AIND] ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, three months of 50-plus readings in the diffusion index, three consecutive gains in the leading index and an annualized reading over that period in excess of 10 percent. Annual Rate The leading index was up 12.8 percent at an annual rate over the last three months, today·s report showed. It was the best performance since January 2002, two months after the last recession ended. ·This is the third straight month of a gain in leaders and suggests that, along with other economic evidence, the U.S. recession might have ended· in the second quarter, [search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kenneth+Kim&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1] Kenneth Kim, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, wrote in a note to clients. The Conference Board·s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, dropped 0.2 percent after decreasing 0.3 percent the prior month. The NBER cycle-dating committee follows measures in this index to help time downturns. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production. The diffusion index shows the breadth of gains in the leading index, with figures over 50 showing the majority of components rising. The index registered a reading of 70 in June for a third consecutive month, today·s report showed. Financial Gauges Earlier this year, only the financial components of the leading index -- including money supply and the difference in interest rates between the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the overnight rate banks charge to borrow from each other --were rising. The increase in the diffusion index shows other measures are also now increasing. ·We now have positive moves in the indicators of the real side of the economy,· such as decreasing jobless claims and increasing building permits, the Conference Board·s Ozyildirim said. While the timeframe can vary between three and nine months, on average the leading index reaches a bottom about five to seven months before the end of a recession, Ozyildirim said. ·The ·all clear· is not quite there, but you are beginning to see the kind of sequence unfolding that will get us there,· he said, referring to the end of the recession.
Virgil SyonidMessage #41 - 07/20/09 06:32 PMRecession in U.S. May Have Already Ended, Leading Index Shows Good catch on the latest green shoot, Duff. By now it should be clear to all that the recession is over. Clearly so. The cynics get hung up on the fact that it's one of those unusual recoveries where states are going bankrupt, businesses are going bankrupt, economic output continues to drop, jobs continue to haemorrhage away, home prices continue to fall, corporate headquarters move out-of-country, every subjective growth indicator is negative, and P/E ratios soar into the stratosphere. A few more solid weeks of gains on the S&P, and even the cynics will have to admit the recession is over.
neohguyMessage #43 - 07/20/09 08:13 PMtoo high too quick. something tells me that this is not a good thing.
ComoKateMessage #44 - 07/20/09 10:14 PMNow would this be a fair quote? " The ultra rich have no patriotism; they look for profits by investing in countries outside the borders of where they live, caring little for the human suffering and carnage they create in their wake." Or this? " It is quite possible that bio-terrorism may be at work in some of the "epidemics" we are exposed to." Or, "So what do we do with the vast amounts of people in the middle and lower end of the "Bell Curve" ? " These are things that you have stated but there is nothing that can stop you from deleting the original post. D-son, I would have no reason to delete my posts except for horrific spelling errors and poor typing skills. I'm not ashamed of the opinions I hold and I'm sure that some will agree/disagree with them. If you want to quote me out of context, that is your option, but anyone truly interested in the entire line of thought can easily look up my posts and make their own judgment as to the validity of my opinions. I have tremendous compassion for those born with mental/physical disabilities and feel that those of us born with a higher intelligence, higher social status, or both, have an obligation to help them. As far as my quotes being "fair"; I call em' like I see em'.
neohguyMessage #45 - 07/21/09 12:32 PMI would have no reason to delete my posts except for horrific spelling errors and poor typing skills. I agree. There seems to be a higher than normal amount of posters that are either deleting their posts or editing them (and not showing they were edited) when they are called on something. For the most part they seem to be the types that have an agenda to promote and intend to do it dishonestly if necessary. Anyway, back to the topic: news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=OBR&Date=20090721&ID=10160336&Symbol=CAT Caterpillar posts stronger-than-expected earnings July 21, 2009 7:56 AM ET
The company, the world's largest maker of mining and construction vehicles, reported a second-quarter net profit of $371 million, or 60 cents a share, compared with $1.11 billion, or $1.74 a share, last year.
Sales and revenue fell 41 percent to $7.98 billion....
I have not seen the "details" yet about cat. Another company I watch: news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090721&id=10160103 United Technologies 2Q profit falls 24 percentJuly 21, 2009 8:14 AM ET ....Struggling airlines have ordered fewer engines made by United Technologies' Pratt & Whitney division and weak construction continues to hurt demand for its Carrier climate control systems and Otis elevators.... ...."The year-over-year rate of decline in orders across the business appears to have stabilized, although orders remain lower than previously anticipated," CEO Louis Chenevert said in a statement.... Maybe not a green shoot but perhaps the massive bleeding is slowing? temporary? permanent?
ungenteelMessage #46 - 07/21/09 02:29 PMreal green shoots??? www.minyanville.com/articles/CAT/index/a/23648
Virgil SyonidMessage #47 - 07/21/09 03:09 PMneoh and ungenteel, the news on CAT seems to be a genuine "green shoot". Go figure. Keep in mind that the revenue was almost halved. The Minyanville article puts the optimism into perspective.
neohguyMessage #48 - 07/21/09 03:29 PMWell Mr. Practical from ungeteel's article is a party pooper: But what if those revenues don't grow? That would be because this is no normal recession. Perhaps the country has been running well ahead of our capacity to produce and our actual wealth for some time, because we have been able to borrow and spend money so easily. Maybe we've borrowed our standard of living from the future -- from our children
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:04:24 GMT -5
ungenteelMessage #49 - 07/21/09 03:36 PM Well Mr. Practical from ungeteel's article is a party pooper: Exactly ... here is more from the article ... the paragraph previous to the one posted ... to bad it was classified as spam The market (i.e. everyone) has determined this to be a normal, albeit extended recession. If companies are cutting costs, both they and the market anticipate a recovery in revenues. Thus stocks like CAT (almost every company has made or beat earnings by cutting costs) are being rewarded for potentially much better earnings in the future, all predicated on a return to normalcy.
neohguyMessage #50 - 07/22/09 01:47 PMI guess if folks are buying iphones, which I consider discretionary, then perhaps things are improving somewhat.: news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090721&id=10158829 Apple smashes profit forecasts, iPhone shines July 21, 2009 8:30 PM ET ...The company continued to defy the global recession with a solid 13 percent jump in fiscal third-quarter net profit. It sold more than seven times as many iPhones -- 5.2 million units of its latest signature device -- as the year-ago period.....
neohguyMessage #52 - 07/22/09 02:00 PMmessage 51 deleted by me 
marshallcrazyMessage #53 - 07/22/09 04:29 PMRegarding the current earnings season, everyone has to remember a few things (one of which has been mentioned in other threads on this board from time to time): 1. Analysts have greatly lowered estimates, thus it's easy to beat those lowered estimates. 2. So far, there have been better than 70% "surprises", some to the upside, some to the downside. See lowered expectations in item 1. above. 3. With only a handful of exceptions (10 give or take?), all of the upside surprises have been with regard to profitability. 4. Revenues, on the other hand, have consistently missed (fallen short) of what were already lowered expectations. Further, even when these companies have "beat" the lowered expectations, revenues and profits across the board (with the exception of Boeing, Apple, and maybe a couple of others) have fallen off the cliff compared to last year's 2nd quarter. 5. When you add all of this up, it means that these businesses are not only not performing well, the upside surprises are due to severe cost cutting otherwise known as "productivity gains" in the green shoot camp. Translation; businesses are not hiring, in fact they are adding to the numbers of previously announced layoffs. They are not investing in capital expenditures, building of inventories, etc. None of that is good for the economy, and none of that will lead to an economic recovery, in fact it will deepen and prolong whatever stage of the recession we're in. That's the reality, folks.
Virgil SyonidMessage #54 - 07/22/09 04:55 PMmarshall, the revenues were a big spot of contention in my mind too. 41% drop here. 53% drop there. Still, in the end, revenues minus costs is what matters to the short-term stock value. Incidentally, business revenues aren't the only revenues dropping. [ www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm] IRS tax revenue falls along with taxpayers' income They're quoting a drop of 34%. Another green shoot.
neohguyMessage #55 - 07/22/09 05:49 PMFrom the tax revenue article that Virgil posted (last paragraph): "The American consumer led us out of previous recessions with some semblance of gusto," Lonski says. "They're too old to do it now." I have seen an almost 180 degree turn among people my age concerning their spending habits. Even the frivolous ones now think excessive spending for unnecessary items is not "cool". I don't know of any people my age that are purchasing iphones (but that might be my perception). I wonder if anyone will figure out that an economy based on irresponsible spending and abuse of debt might not be a good idea?
RemathMessage #56 - 07/22/09 07:09 PMThe White House thinks that tax revenue will increase in 2011, thanks in part to the stimulus package, says the report from AIER, an independent economic research institute. But it warns, "Even if that does happen, the administration also projects that government spending will be so much higher each year that large deficits will continue, and the national debt held by the public will double over the next 10 years." I find this odd. A "stimulus package" means somethng that has to be paid for in taxes. So we issued debt to ourselves and will pay it back in taxes. So does the white house see an increase in tax revenues due to new taxes that will have to be levied to pay for the "stimulus package". or Does the White House see an increase in tax revenues by the jobs created from the money we borrowed from ourselves to employ ourselves untill the "stimulus package" runs out of money. Maybe I'm not understanding it all. Could someone explain to me please how a job created by the government and paid for by the government increases tax revenues and not deficits? isn't it correct to say that every government employee is technically a deficit and not an asset (tax speaking I mean).
Virgil SyonidMessage #57 - 07/22/09 08:50 PM" We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle." - Winston Churchill Remath, the theory (at least to the Keynesians) is that spending money in a period of economic contraction will increase real wealth. The theory holds that taxes should be increased and the funds used to pay workers to build infrastructure, create new industries, produce useful goods and generally create real wealth. In future years, this new wealth will decrease the rate at which productive output must be taxed. The old 'spend money to make money' saw. The reality, of course, is that the cost of the stimulus seldom (if ever) brings about a commensurate increase in real wealth. In the exceptional event that it does, governments are rarely amenable to cutting taxes when productivity is restored, which belies the motivation for the stimulus. Unfortunately, whole schools of economists worship Keynes and Friedman as demigods, oft citing Roosevelt's "New Deal" as the 'cure' to the 1930's depression despite volumes of evidence to the contrary. They also seem to forget that the time-adjusted cost for the New Deal was between 350-500 billion dollars over the four years it was implemented. With 23 trillion on the Fed's books and the national debt climbing by a trillion per quarter, the 'New Deal' roughly equates to what was spent in the first 16 days of the current crisis. The current push for a new stimulus are the cries of a man lost in a wide desert. The OTC derivatives mess continues to unwind and fresh capital is needed to plug the bottomless hole created by the insolvent 'banks'. Jobs continue to haemhorrage, businesses continue to fail, and since the government has no way of stopping it, they instead busy themselves trying to manage the perception of the crisis (as Duffminster's many articles have followed) as well as making sweeping promises to spend more money, which conveniently provides the illusion that they have some idea of what they're doing. Bigger problems, such as the Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare $60 trillion bankruptcy, they ignore entirely. Just ask the former comptroller of the GAO. In time, they hope that the theories of their demigods will honour their directionless spending--the vain belief that man can indeed pull himself out of a well by his bootstraps. Stay sane. - Virgil [Edit: '23' trillion on the Fed's books, referring to Neil Barofsky's report. Had '43' on the mind for some reason.]
DuffminsterMessage #58 - 07/23/09 01:10 AMI believe the only way to really resolve the problem is to put whatever stimulus money we are going to spend into long range renewable energy. If energy approaches zero in cost over time then productivity will approach infinity and if the government, social and infrastructural systems are properly designed, it means potentially every person can live with prosperity. I guess getting the government, social and infrastructural architecture right is the hard part even if building out large scale solar plants is very costly up front. None the less, I don't think monetary policy can ever fully resolve the problems on its own. Just meandering thoughts. Probably at least a fallacy or two but I welcome a response. Oh by the way Virgil, is this place here, you know Green Shoots corner, is it like Green Acres? "Green acres is the place to be. Farm livin' is the life for me. Land spreadin' out so far and wide. Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside. New York is where I'd rather stay. I get allergic smelling hay. I just adore a penthouse view. Dah-ling I love you but give me Park Avenue. ...The chores. ...The stores. ...Fresh air. ...Times Square You are my wife. Good bye, city life. Green Acres we are there." I suggest we have a contest to re-write the Green Acres them song to make it suitable for Green Shoots Corner.
mlsjapan07Message #60 - 07/23/09 02:08 AMSoup Czar.....is that anything like the Soup Nazi? NO SOUP FOR YOU!
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:05:17 GMT -5
ComoKateMessage #61 - 07/23/09 02:21 AMMaybe I'm not understanding it all. Could someone explain to me please how a job created by the government and paid for by the government increases tax revenues and not deficits? isn't it correct to say that every government employee is technically a deficit and not an asset (tax speaking I mean). How about this one; the county I reside in ( Ramsey), in Minnesota, has off-shored some telephone,computer and information assistance jobs in their Social Services department to India. That's right tax- payer dollarsin the form of payrolls, flowing out of the country. No stimulus to local economies, let alone the national one. Unbelievable but, sadly, true.
Virgil SyonidMessage #62 - 07/23/09 03:14 AM*lol* @ djrick I see a future for you in the White House.
mlsjapan07Message #63 - 07/23/09 06:22 AMDuffminster!!!  (Just kidding.) I have had that song in my head for 5 hours! So, here you go: To the tune of Green Acres. Ahem. Green Shoots Corner is the place to be, Market bitchin· is the life for me, Lies spreadin· out so far and wide, Keep the ·Change,· and let me off this ride. In denial is where I·d rather stay, I am allergic to the truth, okay? Madoff might have lost his penthouse view, Wall Street I love you so give me my cut, too. .·The crimes! .·Good times! ·.The fraud! ·.Applaud! I came, I saw, Good bye, Rule of Law·. Green Shoots Corner we are there.
neohguyMessage #64 - 07/23/09 11:41 AMI've heard that the Sports Illustrated app swimsuit issue is to be released. I have not seen it yet so I don't know if this would be a green shoot. From Investopedia: [ www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sportsillustratedindicator.asp] www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sportsillustratedindhttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skirtlengththeory.asp The idea behind this theory is that shorter skirts tend to appear in times when general [www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skirtlengththeory.asp#] consumer confidence and excitement is high, meaning the markets are bullish. In contrast, the theory says long skirts are worn more in times of fear and general gloom, indicating that things are bearish.
Although some [www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skirtlengththeory.asp#] investors may secretly believe in such a theory, serious analysts and investors - instead of examining skirt length to make investment decisions - insist on focusing on market fundamentals and data.
1939sMessage #65 - 07/23/09 11:55 AMOMG ... M.A.S.H. *** has been lying to us for all those years of re-runs !! Suicide is painless  For the government it surely is as is evident from their actions (or hmmm ... their inactions) but for everyone else ? Talk about a chicken strutting around with it's head cut off  Come to think of it the "disjoined head" approach has great practical value since it can stay where only customs officials dare to look while the rest of the "body" can get on with business without having to deal with the encumbrance of a brain 
Cmdr. CodyMessage #66 - 07/23/09 02:51 PMFord beats expectations The automaker burns through less cash, expects operating profit in 2011. Posted by [boards.msn.com/profile.aspx?userid=2841185&forumid=18] Elizabeth Strott on Thursday, July 23, 2009 8:56 AM Ford Motor ([moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=f] F), the only U.S. automaker not to undergo bankruptcy proceedings, seems to be doing just fine. Ford this morning reported an unexpected second-quarter profit of $2.8 billion, due to accounting gains related to its debt reduction. In March, Ford swapped stock and cash to reduce its loan and bond debt by $7.7 billion. The company has cut its debt by $10.1 billion for 2009. Excluding items, including the debt reduction, Ford said it would have posted an operating loss of $638 million, or 21 cents a share, which was better than the loss of 63 cents per share last year and the consensus estimate of an operating loss of 48 cents per share. Shares of Ford rose 64 cents, or 10%, to $7.02 on the news. "(CEO Alan) Mulally's largely achieved all of the benefits that Chrysler and GM received in bankruptcy without a bankruptcy," John Wolkonowicz, an IHS Global Insight analyst, told Bloomberg News. "He has truly streamlined that company, and it will be competitive with the formerly bankrupt companies." Ford's auto operations burned through $1 billion in the period, which was an improvement from the $3.7 billion it burned through in the first quarter of 2009. Ford said it expects to return to an operating profit in 2011, and it expects to continue gaining market share in both the United States and Europe this year. Through the first half of 2009, Ford accounted for 16.1% of U.S. auto sales, up from 15.5% last year. In June, sales of U.S. vehicles dropped 33% for Ford, which was better than the 40% decline at General Motors and the 46% plunge at Chrysler. For green shoots lovers: Isn't Ford's 2nd quarter a wonderful green shoot? Bottom line is that they had an operating loss of 21 cents a share versus the Street expectation of a 48 cent loss. There are, in fact, many green shoots as most companies reporting earnings are beating Street expectations. Or are Street expectations so low that beating them is a foregone conclusion? As usual, I am confused. Or am I?
DuffminsterMessage #67 - 07/23/09 03:05 PMmlsjapan, I think we have the ingredients of a sit com here. Green shoots corners is the place to be.
Virgil SyonidMessage #68 - 07/23/09 04:17 PMmlsjapan FTW. Oy. A green shoots day it is. Unemployment didn't rise by quite as many tens of thousands as the 'analysts' had predicted, Ford only posted a modest loss (even provided its two major competitors are now bankrupt), repo homes are selling like hotcakes... and at the price of hotcakes. 3M is making a mint off of 'Swine Flu' masks. And profits in virtually every other Dow component have only dropped by a mere 30-50%--proving that a moving train does need time to fully come to rest.  No jobs, who cares?, Goodbye, market bears·. Green Shoots Corner we are there. [Edit: I should note that the rate of new unemployment didn't increase by untold thousands. But of course the increase in the initial claims rate is the second time derivative of actual unemployment. Hence, we are celebrating the fact that the losses aren't accelerating as quickly as the analysts expected. A few months from now, we'll be cheering the fact that (although job losses continue to accelerate) the rate of increase in the rate of acceleration in the unemployment rate wasn't as high as analysts had predicted. Hence, we pass the 'third derivative' unemployment test and the Dow will break 10,000.]
Cmdr. CodyMessage #69 - 07/23/09 05:03 PMCalculus knowledge is apparently needed to understand the basis of market movement as Virgil has so eloquently described. Off to the Rathskeller! 
outoftheworldMessage #70 - 07/23/09 05:17 PMWOW! Profits are flooding Wall Street. HOW? Triggered by Massive Corporate Layoffs and much lower than expected earnings estimates by a consensus of idiots so called experts. WHERE's THE REAL GROWTH? Instead of cutting salaries across the board to maintain employment at ease, they throw out a bunch of employees on the streets. This is the Wall Street you want to invest in? Get ready for the next BULL MARKET CRASH...IT WILL COME UNEXPECTEDLY. Your rotten eggs disguised as green shoots are stinking up WALL STREET.
DuffminsterMessage #71 - 07/23/09 06:35 PMThe Other Plunge Protection Team: 122,017 December SPY $95 Puts To me this looks like another orchestrated breakout based on another round of MOPE with the slight increase in existing home sales being used as the Perceptual pivot catalyst. The false break out appears to be operative in the S&Ps with the euro doing what it is in massive trading blocks in the spider puts... It appears that some entity flushed all the stops of the old yearly highs to get an even better price on puts. Its amazing what you can do with the right inside information. Is this high frequency trading or something else? www.zerohedge.com/article/other-plunge-protection-team-122017-december-spy-95-puts Not much commentary needed. Last night open interest was 28,197. Volume so far: 122,018. 122,000 lots = 12,200,000 shares - at around $95 each - that is a $1,159,000,000 notional trade [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/SPY%20Dec%2095%20Puts.jpg]  [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/SPY%2095%20Puts%20chart.jpg] 
schrizoMessage #72 - 07/23/09 07:18 PMI know there is a lot of pessimism in here. But, these markets are moving on the daily news. Consider that Fords news was not bad today and that they are selling a lot of cars this month and next from the Cash for Clunkers incentives. What does that mean for next quarter?? I think higher prices for their stock. One day at a time now. You may want to be short this market for long term, but given what I have said to be true, you could make some money being in the right place now.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:06:09 GMT -5
DuffminsterMessage #73 - 07/23/09 07:52 PMThe Cash for Clunkers program is highly inefficient and will just crank up the debt meter even more and relative to any small bump in GDP we get the increased weight of the tax payer burden generated in yet more borrowed money is laughable. Short term gain will cause long term pain. A bump in the economy is not the substance of a real recovery in my opinion. The weight of debt grows more onerous by the minute.
DuffminsterMessage #74 - 07/23/09 11:50 PMWow, this Green Corners Acres song is not easy. In keeping with spirit of trial and error, I'm putting up my rough draft and welcome edits and editions. In the spirit of high hopes and green shoots: Green Shoots Corner is the Place to be, Managed Markets are the trade for me, Corruption spreading out far and wide, Keep Manhattan, just trade the PPT New York is where I'd rather stay, I get the allergic when I have to pay. I just adore a spun financial view. Dah-ling I love you but we're the chosen few. The Fed. In the Red. Fresh Spin. You win. You are my TALF, Good bye toxic debt. Green Shoots Corner, are we there yet?
New Liberals of the purple sageMessage #75 - 07/24/09 12:06 AMI'm putting up my rough draft and welcome edits and editions. perfect just the way it is! 
DuffminsterMessage #76 - 07/24/09 12:12 AM[ www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=7919&SearchParam=adrian%20douglas] THE GREEN SHOOTS OF HYPERINFLATION By Adrian Douglas One of the hardest things to do as an analyst is to keep an open mind. The S&P 500 topped out in October 2007 at about 1565. Since then it has had a series of five dramatic bear market declines and also five quite impressive bear market rallies. It is very easy to develop Pavlov dog response. Over 20 months we have seen the market fall and rise, fall and rise, fall and rise, fall and rise, fall and rise·so what will it do next? If you answered ·fall· you are probably wrong! Until recently I was thinking that the economy is bad and getting so much worse that the stock market MUST continue to fall. It would defy logic for it to do anything else·.or would it? Imagine if the US Government were to announce tomorrow that they are replacing the existing dollar (USD) with a ·New Dollar· (NUSD) where 1 USD= 2 NUSD and if currently the S&P500 is trading at 900 then what would the S&P500 be tomorrow? It would be 1800. So with out any improvement in the economy the stock market would double. Of course with such an announcement spelling out to everyone what was transpiring no one would be fooled into thinking that this was a big bull market move, but merely the result od devaluation. But now consider what happens if instead of making any announcements the government just surreptitiously, over a few months, doubled the money supply. If the usual manipulation of BLS statistics of CPI and PPI continues then this inflation would be masked and the resulting debasement of the dollar would manifest itself, among other things, as at least a doubling of the nominal value of the stock market. Because this is done without many people realizing what is going on the rise in the stock market would be heralded as a turn in economic fortune and the ·green shoots· of recovery when it is really the green shoots of hyperinflation! If you think that people are not that stupid to fall for it then ask yourself how in the presence of the biggest monetary debauchery ever in the United States history the current chatter is whether we can avoid deflation! The most ridiculous argument is that the average American is so tapped out he can·t borrow anymore so the money supply can·t grow. This totally ignores the multi-trillion dollar expenditure of the US government which is multiples of its tax revenue and is being funded by money that is created by the Federal Reserve. The US Government can spend into existence as much money as it desires to create. For the critics who say that M3 is not yet reflecting the monetary debauchery I would remind them that inflation is relatively more money chasing relatively fewer goods and services. So a contraction of things to spend money on with even a static money supply will lead to an increase in the general price level. The economy is contracting so the supply of things to spend money on is contracting. More importantly, though, the massive derivatives market is largely ignored in discussions of inflation. A 600 trillion dollar market can not be ignored in a 60 Trillion dollar global economy! The derivatives market essentially was a tool of the US government to suppress interest rates and commodity prices. It is now contracting rapidly so clearly the opposite effect must happen that interest rates and commodity prices will rise. I will discuss this in detail in an upcoming article. The stock market during the infamous Weimar Republic hyperinflation delivered stellar nominal gains as has the stock market of Zimbabwe in the most recent example of hyperinflation. 
Figure 1 Comparison of inverted USDX, Commodity Index (CCI) and S&P500 In figure 1 the USDX is displayed in red. It is on an inverted scale such that when the curve rises the USDX is actually falling and vice versa. The blue curve is the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) and in green the S&P500. It can be seen that in general the trends in commodities and the S&P500 can be correlated exactly with dollar strength or weakness. The only exception is indicated by the blue
mlsjapan07Message #77 - 07/24/09 12:31 AMVirgil, Duff, Great lyrics!
schrizoMessage #78 - 07/24/09 03:42 AM From Jon Markman "A Barclays Capital study has determined that if the clunker transactions happened at expected rates, which are fairly modest because of restrictions on the type of clunkers that would qualify, they would add to quarterly sales at an annualized rate of up to 1.5 million vehicles. ISI Group ran the numbers and discovered that the last time vehicle production jumped by anything close to that amount, real GDP surged 11.6% in a single three-month span. That was the first quarter of 1971, after an autoworkers strike. Autos make up a smaller share of GDP today, to be sure, but you can see that the scale could be impressive. Adjusting the data, ISI economists believe the cash-for-clunkers program could cause automakers to boost production enough this summer to generate positive GDP growth of 2% and 3% in the second and third quarters." So what I hear you saying Duff is we should pay down our debt rather than creating more of it. The way I see this is the government is going to spend tax dollars to either enrich the wealthy or throw a bone to the little man. That is what's happening here with the CARS program. Same with first time homeowners and the 8k rebate. The common man can afford a newer ,more efficient car with a little help from Uncle Sam. The renter can get into a home and put down roots with a boost from Sam. We have been throwing a lot of tax money into the military and into other pork why not give some to the citizens. Yes there will be a price to pay just as there is when having a war but somehow it gets paid and life goes on. I am trying to see the benefit to moving some important inventory and it is happening. You may argue about what's good for the future and what's most important. Global warming?? Fair trade?? Money backed by gold?? But at the end of the day we only have today and if we give a few cars away maybe that's better than building a bridge to nowhere. I'm just saying that at least these programs lean toward reducing excess inventory which could lead to more production and isn't that what we all want?? People working. I am sure there are better ideas. Lets hear them.
High Net WorthMessage #79 - 07/24/09 05:59 AMA new green shoot. The largest bank failure of 2009 awaits. $1.7 Billion in write-down's for it's Mortgage Backed Securities. galvestondailynews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=fc5c8b06544f473e
neohguyMessage #80 - 07/24/09 11:41 AMschrizo makes some good points in post #78 about auto incentives. Europe has been doing this for quite awhile: www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2009-02-22-european-car-incentives_N.htm European officials go wild with new car incentives for buyers Updated 2/23/2009 10 ....Europe seems to be going quite mad, launching schemes to help," says Nigel Griffiths, chief auto economist in consultant IHS Global Insight's London office. "Very good job; very fast. All done independently in the past six or seven weeks."
IHS says the sweeteners will "put a floor under the European market" some 500,000 car sales higher than without the discounts, for an estimated 11.7 million instead of 11.2 million this year in Western Europe.....
A more recent article: [ uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE56E1EA20090715?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=11595] uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE56E1EA2009071RENA.PA) chief executive Carlos Ghosn said last week that 2010 would be as hard as 2009 for the industry, and that the end of scrapping schemes could be difficult.[/Color][/blockquote]
schrizoMessage #81 - 07/24/09 03:05 PMIts not that I am happy with our governments debt spending. In my personal life I have taken on little debt but for a house payment. So I am a conservative with regards to spending more than I have and I think our leaders should do the same. But, as my religious grandma would say,"(on the sabbath) when the ox falls in the pit you have to pull it out." We are trying to pull the ox out of the pit with this spending. Perhaps a better way to get people back to work would be to directly subsidize employment by giving money to companies that increase their job force rather than just keep sending welfare checks to the unemployed individual. Perhaps paying people to pick up all the crap that has been dumped along our rivers and highways would be a start. Surely there has to be better ideas than sending welfare checks to the unemployed so they can feel depressed and unwanted. Lets get them doing something that will keep us "leaning" toward a cleaner, brighter future and at the same time give people a reason to get up in the morning. Depression is more than an economic nightmare, it is a life destroying event easily brought on by a total lack of hope. Lets create some hope.
DuffminsterMessage #82 - 07/24/09 03:34 PMschrizo, So what I hear you saying Duff is we should pay down our debt rather than creating more of it. The way I see this is the government is going to spend tax dollars to either enrich the wealthy or throw a bone to the little man. That is what's happening here with the CARS program. Same with first time homeowners and the 8k rebate. The common man can afford a newer ,more efficient car with a little help from Uncle Sam. The renter can get into a home and put down roots with a boost from Sam. We have been throwing a lot of tax money into the military and into other pork why not give some to the citizens. Yes there will be a price to pay just as there is when having a war but somehow it gets paid and life goes on. I am trying to see the benefit to moving some important inventory and it is happening. You may argue about what's good for the future and what's most important. Global warming?? Fair trade?? Money backed by gold?? But at the end of the day we only have today and if we give a few cars away maybe that's better than building a bridge to nowhere. I'm just saying that at least these programs lean toward reducing excess inventory which could lead to more production and isn't that what we all want?? People working. I am sure there are better ideas. Lets hear them. Stimulus with highest net ROI both in terms of long term ROI to the nation as a whole and job creation needs to be the criteria. Too big too fail is just a front for Fascism. The trillions of dollars used to bail out banks could have been used to make direct loans to business and people but more importantly it could have been used to do some serious infrastructure in terms of long term sustainable energy development rather than the piddling numbers put at it. The US needs much more ambitious goals for energy independence as it has the highest ROI for both the citizens and the business of the nation. While sustainable long term power costs a lot up front to build and implement, if done right, it re-trains millions of workers, and after a period of lets say 15 years, begins to generate nearly free energy after the initial capital costs are paid down. As the cost of energy approaches zero, productivity approaches infinity and thus it is possible for there to be prosperity for the masses, enabling a very stable society, markets a win/win for everyone on Earth, including the environment and the other creatures that live here. What the US policy makers lack is long term strategic vision and political will. The latter is partially because of the many layers of illness within the political system. So perhaps the biggest area in which reform is needed remains in campaign finance and ensuring there is a paper trail for voting.
outoftheworldMessage #83 - 07/24/09 04:19 PMA great product sells itself with minimal advertising. Is Wall Street DESPERATELY BEGGING people to invest in stocks? SUMMER RALLY their CRYING, SUMMER RALLY. WALL STREET IS NOT GIVING UP THEIR BOGUS ADVERTISING which HAS NO FOUNDATION. MOST ARE A BUNCH OF DUMB DOGS OUT TO STEAL YOUR VERY LAST BONE.
Virgil SyonidMessage #84 - 07/24/09 04:23 PMPerhaps paying people to pick up all the crap that has been dumped along our rivers and highways would be a start. Surely there has to be better ideas than sending welfare checks to the unemployed so they can feel depressed and unwanted. This was the mentality through most of history, even back to biblical times. Alas, a hue and cry arose from the social engineers, who claimed it was inhumane. What about the addicted? What about the chronically unemployable? Or those with serious physical impediments? What if the unemployed in one area happened to all be of a particular race or visible minority? Then such work would not only be 'humiliating', it would be 'racist'. 'No', they clucked, shaking their sage heads, 'our society has progressed far beyond these barbaric practices.' Better to hand out cheques free of conditions, avoiding the slightest risk of transgressing the most sacrosanct virtue of all: political correctness. " Much of the social history of the Western world over the past three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good. In area after area - crime, education, housing, race relations - the situation has gotten worse after the bright new theories were put into operation. The amazing thing is that this history of failure and disaster has neither discouraged the social engineers nor discredited them." - Thomas Sowell
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:07:02 GMT -5
ASKMessage #86 - 07/24/09 05:11 PMGreen shoots corner is the place to be Our balance sheets you do not need to see Tax dollars coming in from far and wide For wall street bonuses and not the countryside New York is where our dollars stay In the markets is where you need to play Don't worry about the American dream Just keep contributing to our ponzi scheme AAA No way We're broke No joke Here comes the recovery It's just for banksters Not for you and me
schrizoMessage #87 - 07/24/09 06:46 PMThanks Duff for a committed response. Even though I do not understand what happened last fall or whose to blame for it, it seems to be fading at the same rate as our memories. Whatever happened is not in the spotlight now and it seems as if it never was. The media was befuddled with their own lack of knowledge. Even those who lost everything move on, live out the rest of their lives in quiet desperation. Now why don't we know more about the run up in oil just before the collapse?? This would seem to be more understandable and clearly a manipulated market. Did heads roll?? No, the investigations found no signs of gouging and no clear link to any illegal activities. But somehow the oil companys make a lot of money from the "supply and demand." So the price of oil plummets and no one cares what happened as long as it isn't happening now. They stop buying new smaller cars and pump that money into the old SUV's tank. No more car industry. I like the idea of putting in a grid infrastructure and having the money directed towards that goal. Also upgraded sewers and school buildings and libraries would be a move to make this a land for you and me. This is a great thread and I appreciate hearing alternative views. Pehaps the greatest asset of our current president.
outoftheworldMessage #88 - 07/24/09 07:10 PMHEY WALL STREET, DOES LAYING EMPLOYEES OFF JUST TO REDUCE YOUR COSTS IMPROVE REVENUE GROWTH? OF COURSE NOT! HEY WALL STREET, YOU CAN NOT JUSTIFY HIGHER STOCK PRICES JUST BECAUSE COMPANIES LAY OFF A BUNCH OF PEOPLE. WALL STREET IS BRAINWASHING INVESTORS MAKING THEM THINK STOCK PRICES GO HIGHER WHEN PEOPLE ARE LET GO. THIS IS THE BIGGEST BS WALL STREET IS PAINTING YOU. WALL STREET WILL BURN YOU AND THEN GIVE YOU A AN EXCUSE WHY THE MARKET TANKED. THESE PEOPLE ARE UNSCRUPULOUS.
DuffminsterMessage #89 - 07/24/09 08:34 PMASK, In regard to message # 86. Very good. So far I'm giving you first place in the Green Shoots Corner theme song competition. That is just my vote.
Virgil SyonidMessage #90 - 07/24/09 09:51 PMMy muse is a fickle mistress, but still I came up with the following: Fed acres is the place to be.Cash printin' is the life for me.Fun heapin' on such massive debts.Keep Goldman, just give me their old execs.Goldman is where I'd rather stay, I'm allergic to reas'nable pay, Sure I adore the chance to thieve, But why be the bailer when bailouts I can receive? ...More MOPE!...We'll cope. ...Regs, please....You tease! 'New' regs: A-okay?Goodbye, USA. Fed Acres we are there!
mlsjapan07Message #91 - 07/24/09 10:43 PMASK, Virgil, Very good!!!
ASKMessage #92 - 07/25/09 03:04 AMWhy thank you Duff. I would like to thank a few people for making this award possible: Ben Bernanke Larry Summers Tim Geithner and the entire staff at Goldman Sachs, Oh and I would hate to forget Morgan Stanly or the PPT, Thank you Thank you so much!
ComoKateMessage #93 - 07/25/09 04:52 AMIn area after area - crime, education, housing, race relations - the situation has gotten worse after the bright new theories were put into operation. Hmmm...I don't know if that's entirely true. Violent crime has actually gone down significantly in many areas of the US and I do believe race relations have progressed in the last 30 years...still by no means perfect, but there has been progress.
DuffminsterMessage #94 - 07/25/09 05:19 AMLets put our lyrics in one spot here and perhaps we can integrate them. Package them up and send the off to Jon Stewart or the likes: Here they are in order: From MLS Japan: Green Shoots Corner is the place to be, Market bitchin· is the life for me, Lies spreadin· out so far and wide, Keep the ·Change,· and let me off this ride. In denial is where I·d rather stay, I am allergic to the truth, okay? Madoff might have lost his penthouse view, Wall Street I love you so give me my cut, too. .·The crimes! .·Good times! ·.The fraud! ·.Applaud! I came, I saw, Good bye, Rule of Law·. Green Shoots Corner we are there. ---------------------------------------------- From Duffminster: Green Shoots Corner is the Place to be, Managed Markets are the trade for me, Corruption spreading out far and wide, Keep Manhattan, just trade the PPT New York is where I'd rather stay, I get the allergic when I have to pay. I just adore a spun financial view. Dah-ling I love you but we're the chosen few. The Fed. In the Red. Fresh Spin. You win. You are my TALF, Good bye toxic debt. Green Shoots Corner, are we there yet?----------------------------------------------------------------------------- From Virgil
Fed acres is the place to be.Cash printin' is the life for me.Fun heapin' on such massive debts.Keep Goldman, just give me their old execs.Goldman is where I'd rather stay, I'm allergic to reas'nable pay, Sure I adore the chance to thieve, But why be the bailer when bailouts I can receive? ...More MOPE!...We'll cope. ...Regs, please....You tease! 'New' regs: A-okay?Goodbye, USA. Fed Acres we are there! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- First combined attempt by Duffminster (with new innovations) Green shoots are a fantasy, print some money - its all for free! Propoganda spinning out so far and wide Shove the regulations, I want high frequency. Goldman is where I'd rather stay I can make money the old fashioned way Program trading at high frequency. The Fed. we're in bed. Fresh Spin. Its The trend. You are my debt I don't regret Green shoots fakers are here. ---------------------------------------------------- I'm looking forward to the next set of revisions
schrizoMessage #95 - 07/25/09 11:59 PMHeres a thought. Have you seen the obscene amount of Auto adds on TV?? Well they appear to be working as new cars are selling and some dealers are concerned about getting their inventories replaced to be able to sell more. (This may be a local problem but I think not) Which presents another problem of not enough supply but plenty of money. This may be a good time to buy before inflation begins in earnest. The choices on the lots are limited.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:07:54 GMT -5
DuffminsterMessage #97 - 07/26/09 03:54 AMI've a clunker that I really don't want to sell, but I'm going to look into it tomorrow just to see if I can get a comparable deal. Despite the still massive popping bubbles like commercial and home real estate, monetary inflation is barreling down on us and non-bubble assets will go up in dollar terms in my opinion.
Veteran_LenderMessage #98 - 07/26/09 10:34 AMThe Cash for Clunkers program is highly inefficient and will just crank up the debt meter even more Maybe. The program is actually very timely for many reasons. First, getting rolling junk off the roads will help keep pollution down. Second, this will be an interesting foray into credit... will they lend or not? Thirdly, the fact remains that selling cars as an economic mainstay is more vital than turning America into a service type economic engine. The joke has been and remains that- when we make and sell things- we have an economy and when we just pass off services as work- we don't. A reminder that we are still closing banks on schedule and should be nearing the Gruesome 5 into Autumn. It should be a foregone conclusion that the winner by monopoly is the loser by regulatory assault. With the pending changes to FASB implemented (that means bankster lobbies lost), we have a basis for some kind of alternative to banks.
New Liberals of the purple sageMessage #99 - 07/26/09 12:37 PMthis will be an interesting foray into credit... will they lend or not? VL, they have always been lending. This statement keeps coming up and it is a pet peeve of mine. Risk management has never been applied more than it is today and losers are NOT getting loans. This is why GMAC is advertising lending to credit scores of 580. This is insane: when did anyone ever advertise a credit score? Probably because we have never seen such low scores as we do now. VL, for the record: For 2 weeks in November 2008 all lending shut down. I have a contact at Wells Fargo and he told me during that time all Wells offices had to immediately cut labor costs to the bone. The odd thing is even today the office manager is writing loans as they have still not hired back. Could they know something is in the pipeline? After the 2 weeks of zero lending Fannie told them no mortgages unless there is a 20% deposit. That lasted until the end of January. We're back to 5% down now with PMI, of course. Most Americans piss away every dollar they make on crap so without 5% down or the $8000 tax credit the real estate market would (will) collapse. I know of a dozen people who have walked out with mortgages recently. The number one question by lenders is: "how much credit card debt do you have?" Lending to losers is over. It was an experiment gone awry.
schrizoMessage #100 - 07/26/09 06:55 PMThey wanted me to take a loan out on the car I just bought. I know they are tougher with the loan money now but they are pushing it over cash. I can't see a better place to invest right now then in yourself and in things you know you will need going forward. If inflation takes off the cash you are sitting on now will be worth less so why not spend it on what you will need making it a good investment. And why not take out a loan now so you can repay it with inflated dollars?? Boost your spending, stimulate the economy and live leaner getting the most for your money now.
schrizoMessage #101 - 07/27/09 01:45 AMI am glad to hear VL speak of positive possibilities. I don't know about 3 months from now, but for now, I think cars are selling. What that means to any of you I don't know but it would suggest more income for those involved in making and selling cars. Maybe this is the rumor on which to buy some beat up stocks and then sell them when it becomes widely known. Who would you buy now??
marshallcrazyMessage #102 - 07/27/09 05:27 PM"Stocks flat despite 11% surge in new home sales". Maybe that's because year over year, sales are DOWN 21.3% compared to June of 2008, and median sales prices are down 12% from June 2008. So, inspite of new home prices being 12% more affordable than this time last year, sales of new homes are still down 21%. Sounds like a green shoot to me!!
DuffminsterMessage #103 - 07/27/09 05:51 PMKeep in mind that you can buy Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Hundai, on cash for clunkers. I doubt the majority of cars purchased will be US made products and that any small boost in US car sales will be very short lived.
Virgil SyonidMessage #104 - 07/27/09 06:01 PMA nerve-wracking 'green shoots of death' compendium from zerohedge: [ www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession.pdf] www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20Th It's a PowerPoint presentation and I can't easily excerpt. My recommendation to the green-shooters: head down into the 'Unemployment' section, and then to the 'State/Muni Budget Collapse' section. You could fill up Green Shoots Corner with just half of it.
DriftrMessage #105 - 07/27/09 06:11 PMYou know, I've been sitting here in cash just waiting for the S&P 20/50 week moving averages to cross +1% so I can get back in and then I go and read that this morning. If I could just get some comprehensible counter-point to it and all the negative forward-looking news I see out there I might be able to make myself give the markets another shot. Instead, all I see is bad news piled on top of deception piled on top of fraud described as a green shoot by MSM. The problem is that I cannot find any bloggers out there that take the time to put together data supporting a recovery. Instead, I am subjected to sound bites telling me that things are getting better when everything I see in real life points the opposite direction.
schrizoMessage #106 - 07/27/09 06:16 PMThats true about the foriegn auto makers taking a large chunk of the stimulis. What I noticed was how much of an American car is pieced together from motors from Germany and Transmissions from France. We are truly linked in so many ways now. The American car makers are dominating the TV add compaign but Hyundai jumped on the program the fastest.
JnapMessage #107 - 07/27/09 06:46 PMYou want a green shoot I'll give you one. The market is up 38% since march. Because of that I have some money to spend. Will the market continue going up? Who knows. I didn't know it would be up 38% in July from where it was in March. I had faith that it would improve and stayed in the market. The reason was that the market fell 54% from its high but the economy didn't fall 54% so stocks were greatly oversold. We are still down over 5000 points on the DOW and have a long way to go to get back to where we were. The thing that is funny is that everyone seems to want to criticize and refuse to see any blue sky or green shoot. If you wait until the market truly recovers you will lose out. It will be too late. Remember the buy low sell high rule? If you sold when the market tanked you sold low and if you wait until it recovers and buy you will have bought high. You do know that investing is more than gut feeling it is about faith. Faith that the country will get out of the problems it has in time. I can't give you a timeframe but it took many years to get into the mess we have and it will take many years to get out. In the meantime I will spend a little of my 38% gain while you spend your time complaining.
JnapMessage #108 - 07/27/09 06:51 PMOne other thing. Now is a great time to buy because prices are the best I have seen in years. Additionally the government is providing funds to help you spend and I spent my stimulus check a few weeks ago. I may even take advantage of the clunker program. I may also buy some more stocks and am interested in some utlilities stocks that pay a 6.5% dividend. That beats the hell out of one year 1.70% CD's.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:08:47 GMT -5
JnapMessage #109 - 07/27/09 07:08 PMHere is another green shoot: gas prices. From $4.00 to $2.50 a gallon a reduction of 38%. That represents a saving of $270.00 per month on the 180 gallons my family uses each month. Here is another: you can get a 30 year mortgage for close to 5%. In my lifetime they were never that low. You can buy a new air conditioner and get a credit from the IRS. The new unit I purchased is much more effecient than the 10 year old unit I had and I been saving an average of $80.00 a month on my electric bill. Little by little people will take advantage of these programs and that will help the economy.
JnapMessage #110 - 07/27/09 07:23 PMAnother thing on this green shoots message board is that tax breaks that go directly to the average working person or family is never mentioned. The link below tells of tax breaks that the Fed is giving this year. These are significant tax deductions and credits. Just another 12 green shoots all of which will help. articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/CutYourTaxes/CutYourTaxesDyn.aspx?cp-documentid=20784525
Cmdr. CodyMessage #111 - 07/27/09 07:50 PMJnap: Let's me see if I have this straight: Individual wise - 1) spend your profits, 2) take on additional debt, Government wise - 3) reduce taxes? (this I gotta see come 4/2010) while at the same time spend more on entitlements, stimulus and bailouts. Well, I gotta agree - this is green shoots American style.
neohguyMessage #112 - 07/27/09 07:50 PMJnap, you're not supposed to post optimistic green shoots! Just kidding. I appreciate hearing the positive along with the negative. I'm better able to make decisions when I hear both.
Virgil SyonidMessage #113 - 07/27/09 08:13 PMJnap, indeed it is a 'good thing' that stocks have bounced back from their lows. In GSC, we're interested if there's hard data underlying the enthusiasm or if the gains are yet another speculative bubble. As Driftr has pointed out, the bull side of things seems to rely on a lick and a promise, compounded with the undying belief that 'we'll pull through it like we always do'. The attitude persists despite numbers that clearly show we're headed into unprecedented territory. The zerohedge article is a case in point. Stocks are also gaining due to inflation, which isn't a 'bad' thing per se--they're assets holding their value despite devaluation of the base currency. The caveat is that you are not immune from having to pick stocks whose revenue, P/E, growth, etc. support their prices. If an inflation-driven bull market drives eager investors back into riskier investments to recoup their losses, the bubble will eventually pop. Remember, until you've taken your profits, your 37% is just a fiction. Your CDs are paying a measly 1.7% because 'zero risk' comes at a huge premium. Additionally the government is providing funds to help you spend and I spent my stimulus check a few weeks ago. Moving money around doesn't help with soaring unemployment, massive debts, falling production, and bad demographics. The stimulus (inefficiently) increases current consumer buying power by sacrificing future buying power. Mission accomplished. From $4.00 to $2.50 a gallon a reduction of 38%. Legitimate green shoot. (Even if it is because industrial use of fuel has dropped precipitously.) The link below tells of tax breaks that the Fed is giving this year. Whoopie. 'The Fed' has taxed you and everyone else in your household 10,000.00 YTD to pay for the bailout and stimulus. It will be ten times that when 23.7 trillion pounds of TARP hits the fan. You'll pay up as the prices on Oeros, shoelaces, dog shampoo and everything inflates to extract the required pound of flesh. Not that this means you shouldn't go around praising our benefactors, the Fed, for the tax breaks they've generously bestowed upon us.
randy47Message #114 - 07/27/09 08:27 PMThe government has given incentives. Stocks have went up. Things are cheaper to buy but if you don't have a job you can not take advantage of any of it so we are still screwed!! Jobs first and then recovery!!
schrizoMessage #115 - 07/27/09 08:42 PMI have been reading the recent posts here from JNAP. I believe he is saying if you have money, now is a good time to spend it. Perhaps that is a real positive for him. I am in the same situation trying to set myself up for the future. If your money will buy you more now why not spend it on a fuel miser car or an efficient furnace and air conditioner. Why not insulate your home if the government will help you do it?? Why not invest in rental property to give you an income in your old age while it is cheap now?? If you are wise you can take advantage of these times to set yourself up to be independent. These may not be green shoots for most of the country but they could very much make a difference in the individual who has been prudent and lived within their means. I say buy what you need now to cut your costs going forward. There may not be a better opportunity to set yourself up going forward. The markets may not recover and inflation may eat up your savings but chances are you will need a car and a house so buy without regret knowing you will cut your energy use which is good for a multitude of reasons.
neohguyMessage #116 - 07/27/09 08:56 PMGreat post schrizo. I think the point you brought up about being wise is important. No need to take on careless frivolous debt. Good time to buy needed bargains if you can afford to. Putting some money into circulation will hopefully benefit the economy. Hoarding rarely helps anything.
DriftrMessage #117 - 07/27/09 09:06 PMI'm not hoarding anything. I've got my cash sitting in the bank and you are welcome to borrow it. I believe that the things you are going to buy with it are going to cost less next year and I really have no need for anything new at this point, so you're welcome to use it and I even hope I'm wrong. I'd like to take and invest that money in the S&P, but I just don't think that the sales next year are going to be at the levels that are priced into the stocks today. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
JnapMessage #118 - 07/27/09 09:15 PMI have to add something. The money I spend doesn't go into a vacuum it is spread around. If I buy an air conditioner the company I buy it from pays wages and buys material from other companies which in turn do the same. This money gets multiplied up to 7 times, it is said, by the activity it creates. This is the whole point of the stimulus and tax cuts; get people to spend which in turn allows others to spend and eventually we are out of the recession. This has worked for two hundred and 33 years in this country so why would you think it won't work this time? If you look at the great depression it was government spending that got us out of it. Yes I know that many will say it was WW2 but nevertheless it was still government spending even though it went for war material. When all others are unable, unwilling or scared to spend is when the government must because it is the only entity that can. Someone has to start the ball rolling and that is exactly what the government is doing. The economy could care less what caused the money to flow. But of course, eventually, we will have to do something about the deficit but not now. We have to get things rolling first and raise taxes later; and raise we will. Let·s talk about devaluing the dollar. If you want jobs to come back to the US the dollar has got to go down which will cause American products to be cheaper and raise the prices of imported goods. China won·t like it because the value of the treasuries they hold will, correspondingly, go down. We have been enjoying cheap products from China and around the world for years which has decimated our local producers and directly caused jobs to go overseas. Only a realignment and revaluation of world currencies is going to change that.
DriftrMessage #119 - 07/27/09 09:29 PMI read the 10 tax breaks article earlier today. 1) Already own 2) How does this tie in with #5? I might not have read it close enough. This may be an addition to standard deduction if you don't itemize. We itemize. 3) Don't own a clunker 4) We itemize - wife donates WAY too much 5) Already use this. Glad they are continuing it. 6) Wife and are already degreed and employeed. Kids are 5&2. No use for this one today. Hope it stays around though. ;-) 7) We're not full time teachers. Just nights and weekends. 8) Not required to take a distribution. 9) Not 70.5 years old. 10) No disasters in my area. Nothing new worth taking advantage of for us, but hopefully some will find useful things in there. We haven't seen as much benefit as many have in the gas price green shoot because we both drive cars that get pretty good mpg and we have chosen to live pretty close to where we work.
schrizoMessage #120 - 07/27/09 11:11 PMIt is possible that goods will cost less a year from now. My thoughts are they won't. But my point would be buy when it is right for you and have no regrets should the price fall. It is like calling the bottom in the markets. It is nothing but a feeling and you would be lucky to hit it. Again you should buy in when you are comfortable with your decision and live with it. Value is relative but quality is certain. If you buy the best built house you can you are preparing for cold winters and hot summers come whatever happens with utility prices. If you invest in solar collectors you will be cutting the cost you pay for electricity in the future. If you buy a fuel efficient car now you will not be as concerned when oil hits 150 a barrel again and know you are doing everything you can to conserve. So, if you believe life will go on, you might as well prepare for the worst and hope for the best by buying quality items that will give you years of pleasure now. Inventories are running down. You may not find what you want if you wait. Get it now and don't look back. You may be able to sell it for more next year if you need your cash back. Shortages happen.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:09:39 GMT -5
itstippyMessage #121 - 07/28/09 12:10 AMSomeone has to start the ball rolling and that is exactly what the government is doing. The economy could care less what caused the money to flow. But of course, eventually, we will have to do something about the deficit but not now. We have to get things rolling first and raise taxes later; and raise we will. We were unwilling to raise taxes to pay for the Iraq War, the Department Of Homeland Security, the Medicaid Prescription Drug Plan, and a myriad of other "crisis". Trillions of dollars spent without any plan for repayment whatsoever, accompanied by tax cuts. We can't even keep the government itself functioning without special appropriation bills. And that was BEFORE the current "recession crisis". We had an impossible structural deficit BEFORE the TARP funds, Fannie & Freddie securities backstop, AIG bailout, stimulus packages, etc. The government got the ball rolling, all right. It's a giant snowball of national debt rolling down a mountainside, getting bigger and bigger and more impossible to stop every day. Which political party will be first to run for office on a platform of massive tax increases and program cuts? Which American generation will step up and shoulder the burden of past generations' debts? Keep an eye on California to see what happens when a government can no longer borrow and spend its way to prosperity. Green Chutes, more like.
schrizoMessage #122 - 07/28/09 02:12 AMGood points itstippy. I am sure the government is weighing the price we will pay for inflating our way out of debt. How will the Chinese react to being paid in full in dollars worth less?? You can easily see how upset they might be. Perhaps we will trade our military for our debts. It is our greatest asset I am sure. Maybe the Chinese fear an uprising if they can't keep employment steady and therefore will continue to supply us with all their crap just to keep peace within their borders. Who knows what developments will occur to change our course on what appears to be a collision with whom we owe. Who knows what will happen if we get another attack from extremists?? It is all unknown, but based on the past, life will continue evolving.
DuffminsterMessage #123 - 07/28/09 04:05 AMI think Stephen Roach is right. Additionally, the big question remains, where is the demand and the revenue growth going to come from. Outside stimulus spending, which must eventually end, few if any nations are showing sustainable trends in growth and consumption. Our economic model is based on constantly expanding consumption fueled by the fractional reserve system. I think Roach, confirms what Geithner told the G7, which is that we can not count on consumers spending to continue growing. With very few exceptions all the increase in profits is being caused by corporate contraction of jobs, assets and expenditures. This will also plateau at some point. The market has been so controlled that the required major pullbacks have not been allowed to take place. On profits one might be able to justify the rally but from a big picture stand point, I see no long credible argument for any real revenue growth and I continue to believe that the market is largely manipulated and that natural immune system of natural pull backs to the previous lows are simply not being allowed to happen and thus there is strong possibility that certain exogenous events have a much higher probability of causing much larger pull backs than anyone might imagine. I posted this article on the Stephen Roach post as well and think it provides food for thought. It·s PRIME TIME: Stage 2 of the U.S. Collapse walshal.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/its-prime-time-stage-2-of-the-u-s-collapse/ To listen to our political leaders, the mainstream media and financial bubblevision t.v. programs, you would think that the financial crisis has stabilized and the housing market is bottoming. But if you un-spin the data fed to us by the Government and the media, the facts show that the financial system is on the precipice of another very large crisis. As the housing market collapse spreads into the prime-rated mortgage sector, a veritable avalanche of foreclosed middle to high-end homes will flood the market, triggering a much larger credit and economic crisis than what was experienced during the past 18 months. The onset of the financial crisis in this country last year was largely precipitated by the inevitable bursting of the housing and mortgage bubble. In what was an unregulated multi-trillion dollar Ponzi scheme, the price of houses rose to unsustainably insane valuation levels, fueled by the reckless and tragic use of no-holds-barred mortgage financing. This ·Stage 1· of the financial collapse was triggered by an escalation in defaults and foreclosures primarily in the subprime and Alt-A mortgage sectors. The associated collateral damage from this reverberated into the implosion $100·s of billions of off-balance-sheet assets and derivatives, many of which were fraudulently rated by the rating agencies and recklessly pumped into investors by Wall Street. This took the Dow from 14,000 to 6,440 and was addressed by the Government/Fed with as much as $24 trillion in direct monetary injections and financial guarantees. During this Stage 1 we saw the Government takeover of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the de facto Government takeover of AIG, the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Wachovia; the U.S. auto industry, among many any other corporate failures and smaller regional bank collapses (64 smaller bank failures this year as of 7/24/09). Stage 2 of the financial collapse of the U.S. is being triggered by the accelerating rates of default/foreclosure in the prime-rated mortgage market, as well as the collapse of commercial real estate. I am going to focus on the residential mortgage component, as it is three times as large as the commercial real estate mortgage market. Whereas the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets are roughly $1.5 trillion combined, the prime-rate mortgage market is in excess of $10 trillion, depending on your source of data. For purposes of my analysis, I am using data presented by Mark Hanson of Field Check Group in his ·7-19 Mortgage Default Crisis · Brutal Past Two-Months· article posted here (a
Virgil SyonidMessage #124 - 07/28/09 05:43 PMTechnically, this is a green shoot: [ www.fourwinds10.com/siterun_data/science_technology/new_technologies_and_inventions/news.php?q=1248707541] We'll Still Be Able to Cook Food To the permabulls ( MikeC4w and Jnap in particular), I schadenfreudisticall where n = bank failures and x = tax rate [ www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/7-24-09-bank-failures.gif]  [ www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-failure-friday-chart-approaching-exponential-curve] www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-failure-friday-chart-appro There's a green shoot in there somewhere. Perhaps the unemployed bankers can manufacture solar cookers for all of us.
New Liberals of the purple sageMessage #125 - 07/28/09 05:49 PMschadenfreud ahhhhhh.....it just feels so good!
JnapMessage #126 - 07/28/09 11:14 PMFrom 1984 through 1989 1000 banks failed in the US. During the great depression 9000 banks failed. Do you think we are the same course? Not a chance. It is important to weigh the economic problems we have today with history because it gives some perspective. To say that the failure of 64 banks in 2009, each of which were picked up by other banks with FDIC help, equals what happened in the 1984 - 1989 period is wrong, but to say it equals the great depression is ridicules. I sometimes believe that the negative attitudes that appear on this message board are similar to the attitude of a neighbor of mine. This neighbor, several years ago, insisted that the rapture was going to happen in a few days. Of course it didn't and so I asked her if she was disappointed? Will you pessimists be disappointed when the great collapse doesn't occur? Have you so leveraged your personal beliefs to the point of hopelessness, while adding despair and disbelief that things will ever improve? Will you acknowledge that while you may not agree with the government·s stimulus package or financial bailouts that you have offered no reasonable alternatives? Will you acknowledge that you constantly discount all efforts at improving the economy by others? Will you ignore positive information and base your predictions on negative factors only? I am afraid that a green shoot isn't what you want (you would probably kill it with roundup) but prefer an empty desolate world as proof that your negativity is correct. That is not going to happen! Why do you give up so easily? What happened to your faith in American resolve? More importantly what happened to your own resolve? This much is clear, the economic excess that caused our current problems is over and the rebuilding of a normal economy has started. I don't want to go back where we were because it was an aberration and unsustainable. What facts do I have to support my optimism, history? What do you have?
schrizoMessage #127 - 07/28/09 11:49 PMI am with you JNAP. It is what it is and it will be what it will be. Perhaps there is a hope of revolution should enough people feel betrayed by our leaders. Look at all the effort and rumor put into Obama not being an American citizen?? If you hear a consistent lie it works its way into your mind and settles itself as fact. Remember when WMD's were the reason to go into Iraq?? Remember when we had to stop the communists in Vietnam or they would overtake the world?? It had nothing to do with throwing contracts at the military industrial complex Anyway, please do your own research and listen to both sides of this argument and be responsible for yourselves. I do believe your right about history. Life goes on and evolution has its way. No matter, this is a good time to buy something if you have the cash or are willing to borrow.
LivingInCaliMessage #128 - 07/28/09 11:50 PMFrom 1984 through 1989 1000 banks failed in the US. During the great depression 9000 banks failed. Do you think we are the same course? Not a chance. I think this is what gets us in trouble the most. Totally discounting something as can't happen and then being totally surprised when it does. I don't think we are going to see 9000 banks die in the next 5 years, but we may see an excess of 1000 die over the next five years. We may see the same percentage of banks fail. There were a lot more banks around in the 1920-1930's and 1980's than there are now. We may see a larger percentage of assets fail. How big was WaMu compared to the 1000 banks that failed in the 1980's If you go back to last year about this time when the DOW was still at 11,500 or so, you saw people make statements that there's no way the DOW can get to 8000. It was outside of their realm of possibilities, yet by November 2008 we had breached DOW 8000 on our way to 6500 in March 2009. I'm not saying there's no reason to be positive about the future and to try to make things better but at the same time I don't know if it makes sense to put 100% of your assets in equities. I don't know if it even makes sense to put 30% of your money in equities right now. We have a federal government that is spending money like crazy and needs to get that money from somewhere. Is it possible they will find ways to get money out of equities in order to support their own debt. Is it possible to see massive deflation. Is it possible to see massive inflation. Right now anything is theoretically possible, DOW could go to 11,000 in the next 2 months. I guess the further we get into this thing and the more data the comes out, we see greater similarities to the Great Depression and Japan's Lost Decade (well more like 2 lost decades). When you look at the directions the market could go from here there isn't a historical example of a snap back rally getting us back to DOW 15,000 in a couple of years, that I can find. There are examples in the Great Depression, the NASDAQ in 2000-2003, and Japan of us heading to DOW 4,000 or even lower. To be honest I'd be more surprised if this rally is the precursor to a massive market rally that puts us at DOW 20,000 in 5 years it seems like it much more likely to mirror the massive Great Depression Rally in Nov 1929 to May 1930 where we rallied 50% off the 1929 bottom only to be significantly lower at the end of 1930. The bottom line is that for the common citizen that hasn't saved for retirement, is planning on living off social security and still has a reasonably stable job they wouldn't really fell that much pain from the stock market going to DOW 4,000 or lower. The people on this board might, but think about the kids just graduating college or the retired people that have moved their assets into safe vehicles. They wouldn't feel much pain from a stock market collapse and if deflation hits as a result they are even better off (I suppose the kids that end up with a lot of college debt would have some problems in a deflationary environment, but in the long run it probable helps them). That's probably 1/3 to 1/2 of the population. The people that wouldn't like that scenario are the bulk of the middle class+ baby boomers and the rich that aren't in a privileged position (I.e. the ones that could see their fortunes crushed and not be in the exclusive government bailout group)
Virgil SyonidMessage #129 - 07/29/09 02:56 AMHave you so leveraged your personal beliefs to the point of hopelessness, while adding despair and disbelief that things will ever improve? MarketTalk Adventure Zoo
Doom n' Gloomer ( stormcloudicus domesticus) The majestic spotted ' doom n' gloomer' (DnG) is often found grazing in open pastures of groundless optimism. Packs of DnGs emerge from their dens after systemic crises, attracted by the need to tackle the root causes of the crises rather than 'get right back to it' under the pretense of 'looking forward'. This characteristic behaviour is often misconstrued by other species as being opposition to recovery, especially in cases where the actions needed to tackle the root causes are incompatible with the quickest and easiest way to initiate a recovery. Modern behaviour research suggests that DnGs are strongly averse to lies and obfuscation, especially when the lies and obfuscation originate in green shoots media factories. DnGs have been observed to grow increasingly jaded, often to the point where they consider the persistence of the illusion to be insulting. Studies conducted out of the Center for Doom n' Gloom Research (CDGR) have shown that most DnGs are happy with a recovery if it's the right kind of recovery. Specifically, this includes: i) not wanting to call everything 'OK' if it's not OK, ii) not wanting the practices that caused the meltdown to be repeated, iii) not wanting the architects of the meltdown to be rewarded, and iv) not wanting the future of the nation to be mortgaged. Dr. Baron Humphrey, director of the CDGR, summarizes the DnG mentality as follows: "What good is a recovery if the honest man is a slave to debt when it's realized? That's basically what they want to know. Ha! Damned it if they aren't the cutest, fuzziest critters, though." Ecologists have catalogued a startling diversity of DnG species, many of which can be observed in the MarketTalk Adventure Zoo. Species are typically classified according to their rating on the 'We're all going to die!' (WAGD) scale. Specimens range from high-WAGD subjects such as JP, whose feral cries are believed by researchers to be a means of coping with injustice, to low-WAGD subjects such as O&G whom CGDR researchers believe may be genuinely interested in exploring 'ways out' to prevent a second crisis from coming. Scientists have concluded that nearly all species of DnG, regardless of WAGD, welcome the right kind of recovery. Preliminary research also suggests that many species of DnG enjoy sitting on piles of gold, tossing rocks at passing permabulls, and engaging in elaborate disaster prediction competitions as a means of establishing their position in the DnG society. More information about DnGs can be found online at www.cgdr.org. What facts do I have to support my optimism, history? What do you have? I can add.
mlsjapan07Message #130 - 07/29/09 09:37 AMVirgil, that was great. I miss the two-headed animal (whose heads bobbed up and down alternately) in the last zoo story, but this story was just as funny.
DuffminsterMessage #131 - 07/29/09 03:00 PMThe End Of The End Of The Recession www.zerohedge.com/article/end-end-recession Zero Hedge, in collaboration with [www.gluskinsheff.com/] David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc., is pleased to release the attached analysis "[www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession.pdf] The End Of The End Of The Recession." It is our hope that this piece will provide some badly-needed perspective on "the recession is over" debate, a topic that has become as one-sided as it is wrong-headed. Our purposes is to promote rational, informed discourse on the subject and to this end we enthusiastically solicit reader feedback. Our presentation is licensed "creative commons: attribution" and we hope that our readers will feel free to forward it on or excerpt from it freely, provided attribution is preserved. [www.scribd.com/doc/17712435/The-End-of-the-End-of-the-Recession] The End of the End of the Recession
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:10:31 GMT -5
Falling Sky - NotMessage #133 - 07/30/09 11:48 AMFrom 1984 through 1989 1000 banks failed in the US. During the great depression 9000 banks failed. Do you think we are the same course? Not a chance. I don't think it is the number of banks that fail that are important as much as the size in terms of assets and # of depositors. This much is clear, the economic excess that caused our current problems is over and the rebuilding of a normal economy has started It's not clear to me - What period of history are you using as proof? I respect your opinion but without stated facts that's all you have at this point is your opinion.
Veteran_LenderMessage #134 - 07/30/09 12:03 PMVirgil... you are priceless! JNAP... perhaps you missed your own point. 9000, 1000 and a growing number these years indicate a deeper problem-- that of "banks" being unstable institutions that must be fractured into sector entities without the ability to grow "too big to fail". Each era contains a commonality-- banksters doing things beyond the basic dynamics of trustworthy services. Banks should be reduced to savings institutions whose investments are heavily overseen and reliable. No banker should ever make more than anybody else because their position is virtually risk-less. Enterprises involving lending, finance, insurance and other services don't belong in banks by the nature of what they are. A simple rigid wall of transparency would avert future failure eras.
neohguyMessage #135 - 07/30/09 01:38 PMJust a regional observation from NE Ohio. We perform service work for every major manufacturing sector. Steel is recalling some of their furloughed employees. Auto, paper, packaging, chemical, and plastic are doing the same. Cement and block making are still dead. Processed foods are increasing hours but are not hiring yet. Residential/commercial construction is yuck. Overall I see improvement as compared to 6 months ago. I hope it keeps up. I would gladly be wrong about my bearish disposition.
DuffminsterMessage #137 - 07/30/09 05:17 PMMore Green Shoots today and the market is up up and away! With good news like this, who needs bad news? [www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MOT%3AUS] Motorola gained 7.2 percent after job cuts helped the biggest U.S. mobile-phone maker report a smaller loss than analysts projected.
[www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GE%3AUS] General Electric Co. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher with a 7.3 percent advance on speculation new banking rules will let the company keep its finance unit.
[www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=V%3AUS] Visa Inc., which runs the No. 1 credit-card network, gained 3.1 percent to $68.83 after it also topped projections with more consumers paying bills with credit, charge and debit cards.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayBX8x.HHwWo
JnapMessage #138 - 07/30/09 05:18 PMYes the economic excess is truly over and the rebuilding process has begun. Some immediate problems are that banks do not want to lend because they are still fighting the problem of troubled assets but these assets have been identified and eventually they will either 1) Be totally wiped off the books as worthless or 2) Regain some of their worth due to a reevaluation of their true value, which was greatly reduced because of market conditions. Economic recovery will help as well and the Federal government is not going to allow the banks to sit on their assets while the economy suffers for very long. The list of companies with greatly reduced revenue is not surprising. A casual sample shows home builders and energy companies as having a large drop. Does that surprise anyone? These companies certainly profited by the explosion of economic activity of the last 4 - 5 years and thought, as did most Americans that thought it would never end. It was unsustainable for many reasons, but especially because massive debt, selective inflation and the lack of growing wages made it impossible. It was one hell of a party while it lasted and the hangover is a bitch but it wasn't fatal. I can remember a few times when I thought it was but I recovered and so will the US.
DuffminsterMessage #139 - 07/30/09 05:19 PM  [ www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-now-openly-misrepresenting-reality] CNBC Is Now Flagrantly Misrepresenting Reality As of 10 minutes ago, Larry Kudlow would like you to believe that Q2 earnings are so much better than Q1. That is a flat out lie. The chart below, straight out of Bloomberg which we demand all readers with a BBERG terminal replicate using SPX Index EA <go>, demonstrates that Q2 earnings are now in fact worse than Q1. While in Q1 the YoY EPS drop was -31.49%, as of right now the drop is -32.41%. And the drop in revenues is much worse. Larry Kudlow, please put this chart up on your show and advise people you are misrepresenting the truth. [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/EPS%201.jpg]  [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/EPS%202.jpg]  And while Earnings are bad, here is the revenue comparison: the quarterly drop is in fact accelerating! [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Revenue%201.jpg]  And here is the projected earnings growth rate over the next two quarters, needed to justify the rosy perspective on the economy: the bottom line: over 110% in projected EPS growth in 6 months. A jobless, revenueless doubling in earnings! And this is what Larry Kudlow, Wall Street and Corporate America would like you to believe is achievable in order to justify an S&P at 1,000 and billions in Wall Street bonus payments. The Kool Aid is served in the ranch toward the back. [www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/EPS%203.jpg] 
Virgil SyonidMessage #140 - 07/30/09 06:03 PMGAH! There it is again! Get it away! Get it away! Bring me back to reality! Incidentally, Duff, your dollar-Dow correlation would be on a roll today. US Stocks are rocketing up for no apparent reason. So is the $CAD. Up another 0.75 so far today vs. the greenback. To heck with a 'V'-shaped recovery. If you buy into this con, you're banking on a 'step function' recovery.
Virgil SyonidMessage #141 - 07/30/09 06:23 PMFor those interested in some carbon-based, stomach churning greenshootery: [ scienceandpublicpolicy.org/press/government_monosony_distorts_climate_science_says_sppi.html] The New Commodities Market The US Government has spent more than $79 billion of taxpayers· money since 1989 on policies related to climate change, including science and technology research, administration, propaganda campaigns, foreign aid, and tax breaks. Most of this spending was unnecessary.
Despite the billions wasted, audits of the science are left to unpaid volunteers. A dedicated but largely uncoordinated grassroots movement of scientists has sprung up around the globe to test the integrity of ·global warming· theory and to compete with a lavishly-funded, highly organized climate monopsony. Major errors have been exposed again and again.
Carbon trading worldwide reached $126 billion in 2008. Banks, which profit most, are calling for more. Experts are predicting the carbon market will reach $2 - $10 trillion in the near future. Hot air will soon be the largest single commodity traded on global exchanges. Meanwhile, in a distracting sideshow, Exxon-Mobil Corp is repeatedly attacked for paying just $23 million to skeptics·less than a thousandth of what the US government spends on alarmists, and less than one five-thousandth of the value of carbon trading in 2008 alone. The bold was added by me. I used to think PNACs were a portent of our society's doom, but this is taking it to a new level. If this keeps up, the nation's main sources of income will be taxing carbon, selling mandatory flu vaccines for what could quite possibly be the least lethal variant of the flu ever witnessed, and buying into the markets that fully expect a step-shaped recovery minus jobs, revenues, or consumers. (Burbles lips.)  Fake it 'till you break it, I guess.
Veteran_LenderMessage #142 - 07/30/09 06:40 PMI too have heard light of these "green shoots". Let's hope they actually exist and are not more hype and spin. As for banks-- since the bail-outs, Boards have actually had to have a hand in steering the course. It resembles the same steerage a drunk provides the morning after a binge... slow, jerky, crabby and the radio has been ripped free from its brackets and dangles from the trunk. Banks cannot hire because of budget freezes, cannot lend because administrators don't know how when the software doesn't meet the conditions prevalent in the markets. We can "say" things are getting better but the machine is still very broke. Once we get off this "college degree" kick and hire talent and performance again, then there will be green shoots.
DuffminsterMessage #144 - 07/30/09 08:56 PMCarbon trading worldwide reached $126 billion in 2008. Banks, which profit most, are calling for more. Experts are predicting the carbon market will reach $2 - $10 trillion in the near future. Hot air will soon be the largest single commodity traded on global exchanges. I'm sure banks love this. More green shoots for the day: www.cnbc.com/id/32223498 [data.cnbc.com/quotes/DIS] Walt Disney reported lower quarterly earnings that topped analysts' forecasts, but the company's shares declined in extended trading as its revenue missed predictions.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:11:24 GMT -5
Veteran_LenderMessage #145 - 07/30/09 11:22 PM[data.cnbc.com/quotes/DIS] Walt Disney reported lower quarterly earnings that topped analysts' forecasts, but the company's shares declined in extended trading as its revenue missed predictions. Who? What? They used to be a kid-oriented business, made marvelous illustrated features, had a great park system. Then Eisner popped in, took $555 Million in comp one year and flushed the good stuff down and out. IMHO... it's just another business vehicle these days. Walt would have jumped off the castle before letting the likes on this current Board have a hand in the decisions. What a legacy-- lost.
JnapMessage #146 - 07/31/09 03:39 PMThe Disney company was a disaster before Eisner came along. They were being threatened by several corporate raiders and had to buy a couple of companies, to act as poison pills, to fend them off. The Bass brothers sold them one company and provided a large sum ofmoney to help. The company was being run by Walt's son in law (Miller is his name) and it became very close to not surviving as an intact entity. this occurred in the early 80's. I do think that Eisner was paid too much but maybe he was worth it in the end. I think the Disney numbers are great because of all of the expenditures that are discretionary going to Disney for a vacation is close to the top. The fact that they were down isn't a surprise but they were not down that much. I think that is a green shoot.
JnapMessage #147 - 08/01/09 04:21 PMV_L you are completely wrong about Disney They are a fine company and have earnings of over 4 billion dollars a year. Sure they are affected by the economic downturn but they are as well poised to handle the downturn as any company. They employ 60 thousand people in Orlando and are the largest employer in Florida. Their legacy is intact. The best move they made in the last couple of years was buying PIXAR from Steve Jobs; who also happens to be their largest stockholder and on the board of directors. The Pixar team has come to Disney intact and is allowed to make their own decisions about movie production. They have been very successful. You are also wrong thinking that Disney is a kid oriented business. They are a family oriented business but first and foremost they are a business. Their theme parks, resorts and attractions are extremely well run and probably one of the safest places you can visit. Security is unbelievable and you never have a fear of criminal activity. Yes I am a fan but for good reason
neohguyMessage #149 - 08/03/09 04:59 PMThis is a green shoot if you dislike banks: news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090803&id=10222403 SEC charges BofA over false statements in Merrill buy August 3, 2009 12:48 PM ET
IN.HOUSTONMessage #150 - 08/03/09 05:04 PMSEC charges BofA over false statements in Merrill buy So when will SEC charge Pandit at Citi - for the same false info to raise stock prices last Feb?
Cmdr. CodyMessage #151 - 08/03/09 09:15 PMGreen shoot: BoA fined 33M for lying about Merrill deal. They got off easy. As did UBS in the tax cheat issue.
Virgil SyonidMessage #152 - 08/04/09 04:23 PMMore green shoots for the Wall Street boys: [ consumerist.com/5327382/ny-ag-banks-paid-bonuses-that-were-substantially-greater-than-the-banks-net-income?skyline=true&s=x] NY AG: Banks Paid Bonuses That Were Substantially Greater Than The Banks' Net Income New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's report on the bonus structures of the banking industry is out and · oh my· it's damning. The AG says that 3 banks, [consumerist.com/tag/goldman-sachs/] Goldman Sachs, [consumerist.com/tag/morgan-stanley/] Morgan Stanley, and JP. Morgan Chase, paid out bonuses that " were substantially greater than the banks' net income." The report says that combined, these three firms earned $9.6 billion, paid bonuses of nearly $18 billion, and received TARP taxpayer funds worth $45 billion. Why did this happen? Because, according to Cuomo, when times were good the bankers rewarded themselves based on performance. When the economy started to sour · they decoupled the bonus structure from reality and kept rewarding themselves. *Whistle*  Times must be good for the boys running the show. There's never been a better time to be a well-connected idiot with an MBA. And remember, all of this wealth eventually trickles down to us plebes. Those $35,000.00 commodes don't buy themselves. 
Virgil SyonidMessage #153 - 08/04/09 04:45 PMAh, but of course Mr. Jim Sinclair had to go and remind me why these fellows really do deserve their tea and crumpets: [ www.cnbc.com/id/32235392] Billions in Lehman Claims Could Bury an Elusive Insurer (as originally seen in the NYT) Next to a Chinese restaurant in Burlington, Vt., lurks a quiet guardian of Wall Street · an obscure insurance company that is supposed to protect big-money investors in the event of a catastrophic failure of a major brokerage firm.
A failure, for instance, like the one that brought down Lehman Brothers nearly 11 months ago. Now, after years in the shadows, the insurer, the Customer Asset Protection Company, could finally be put to the test, and questions are starting to swirl.
The worry is that the company, which has never paid out a claim, might be unable to cope with the Lehman bankruptcy.
If it were overwhelmed by claims, the banks and brokerage companies that own Capco, as it is known, could end up owing billions of dollars.
Capco representatives dismiss such concerns, but state insurance regulators are keeping an eye on the company. Officials at the New York State Insurance Department are concerned about the company·s ability to withstand the Lehman bankruptcy, the largest in history.By some industry estimates reviewed by the insurance department, Capco could face nearly $11 billion in claims but has only about $150 million with which to meet them. The state is examining whether the company sold policies without the means to cover them, according to a person with direct knowledge of the inquiry who had signed confidentiality agreements.
The issue has even reached Washington, where a member of the Senate Finance Committee, Robert Menendez, has sounded an alarm. Mr. Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, wrote the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, in June to express his concern.
·It has become clear that this entity is thinly capitalized,· Mr. Menendez wrote in the letter. Capco, he said, potentially posed ·systemic risk.· Capco was created in 2003 by Lehman and 13 other banks and brokerage companies as a kind of marketing tool. The pitch was that while Capco would not insure customers against investment losses, it would compensate them if the firms failed. Capco promises to provide virtually unlimited coverage above the $500,000 offered by the Securities Investors Protection Corporation and its equivalent in Britain. Insuring tens of billions of assets with $150 million in actual collateral? You wizards you! No wonder it took 13 banks to think up the idea! But fear not, should Capco wind up woefully undercapitalized, the Federal Reserve will be there. [ www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e84383dc-7f8c-11de-85dc-00144feabdc0.html] Wall Street profits from trades with Fed Wall Street banks are reaping outsized profits by trading with the [www.federalreserve.gov/] Federal Reserve, raising questions about whether the central bank is driving hard enough bargains in its dealings with private sector counterparties, officials and industry executives say.
The Fed has emerged as one of Wall Street·s biggest customers during the financial crisis, buying massive amounts of securities to help stabilise the markets. In some cases, such as the market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed buys more bonds than any other party. However, the Fed is not a typical market player. In the interests of transparency, it often announces its intention to buy particular securities in advance. A former Fed official said this strategy enables banks to sell these securities to the Fed at an inflated price. The article continues in stomach-churning detail. Fear not, ye plebes! 'Tis the greatest green shoot of all! For as the skulduggery of Wall Street continues to unwind, the Fed will need to purchase increasingly powerful helicopters to shower their undercapitalized insurers with confetti money. (No wonder the ISM has almost reached 'non-contraction' territory!)
Virgil SyonidMessage #154 - 08/04/09 08:26 PMGreen shoots just seem to be popping up everywhere today. A pertinent article from our friends at [ market-ticker.org/archives/1289-Consumer-Where.html] MarketTicker: You'd think that the economic news was "all roses and green shoots" this morning. Yeah, ok. [www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm] The BEA says otherwise: Personal income decreased $159.8 billion, or 1.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $143.8 billion, or 1.3 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.4 billion, or 0.4 percent. Got that? Income is down but the "green shoots" mantra from the media has people spending more, even though one wonders [www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2458840/] where that spending is showing up? The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales in the period were down 5.6% compared with July 2008, compared to a targeted 6% fall. Redbook said that on an unadjusted basis, sales in the week ended Saturday were down 5.4% from the same week in 2008 after a 5.5% decline the prior week. Hmmm..... Note that WalMart is no longer part of the Redbook survey, but anecdotal reports are that their same-store sales have been running down about 5% through the quarter (we'll find out when they report earnings, of course.) What's worse in the income and spending report is that "saving" (actually debt paydowns) has decreased; this is particularly troubling given the continuing over-leveraged state of the consumer. The last thing we need in our economy is yet more debt defaults driving even more economic contraction, but it appears that's exactly what we're going to get. Never underestimate the power of the shoots--to blot out all reason, and usher in fictitious prosperity for all! Will this market stop beating around the bush and please melt down already so that I can buy back in. 
DuffminsterMessage #156 - 08/06/09 01:36 PMThe PPT is on the path of inflation. They will spin and apply high frequency, supplemental liquidity, massive program trading, shadow banking and derivatives galore. Don't try to short and if you are in the markets, maintain your trailing stops. This madness must ultimately end in a retest of the March lows but its impossible to know if that happens this year or next. Personal spending up but income down; banks making more money because consumers are using their credit cards to make ends meet? I think you can see where that is leading.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:12:16 GMT -5
hvfpaintsMessage #157 - 08/06/09 01:41 PMAmother Green shoot! Another 550,000 out of work. The market will probably explode on this "great" news (major sarcasm here!)
hvfpaintsMessage #158 - 08/07/09 01:45 PMwell only a quarter of a million - and the market is surging again. Why? That's a quarter of a million less consumers in a consumer economy. And let's not forget the approximately 5 mil. that have run out of benefits. The states are pretty much broke - what is going to happen if these folks can't feed their families?
Virgil SyonidMessage #159 - 08/07/09 03:57 PMonly a quarter of a million This is a substantial improvement over June, but its 'realism' begs to be called into question. Firstly: what is the non-adjusted rate? Secondly, how much of the decrease consists of government 'make-a-jobs'? As for the continuing claims dropping, all it takes is one look at the EXTHRATE for claims expiry to find out why.
DuffminsterMessage #160 - 08/09/09 12:52 AMAs usual the employment numbers are provided with little analysis into any non-green shoots substantive factors. The main reason for the drop in unemployment seems to be that more workers fell off the unemployment benefits role and the GM started up a couple of plants that had long been idle. I guess cash for clunkers is generating a few jobs but how long will that last? I hope it gets better, but I'm still taking the red pill most days. www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tc-biz-jobs-0807-0808-aug08,0,3445754.story ...one reason for improvement in July was that [www.chicagotribune.com/topic/economy-business-finance/manufacturing-engineering/automotive-equipment/general-motors-corp.-ORCRP006407.topic] General Motors Co. and Chrysler Motors LLC restarted plants that had been shut down to save cash and adjust inventories. That gave the manufacturing sector a boost but may have temporarily skewed the numbers. Other economists said the drop in the unemployment rate was driven by a sharp decline in the labor force, as discouraged job seekers dropped out.
The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, rose by 584,000 over the month, to 5 million. That meant that one in three unemployed people were jobless for 27 weeks or more in July, the Labor Department said.
Virgil SyonidMessage #161 - 08/10/09 03:28 PMApologies for posting something right off of MSN Money, but this article was a bit too green shootey to pass up: [ blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/08/10/38-billion-in-overdraft-fees.aspx] $38 Billion in Overdraft Fees There are so few profit centers that banks can count on anymore. Many of the largest financial firms are still losing money on derivatives. Consumer credit default rates are rising. Commercial real estate may be the Armageddon for some banks. The only recent bright spot for financial firms last quarter was investment banking. That may be short-lived if the stock and bond markets stop advancing.
One thing that the banks can count on is the fact that many consumers will overdraw their accounts. This is probably a more frequent occurrence during a recession when money is tight. Data from Moebs Services which recently [www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43d18c68-851d-11de-9a64-00144feabdc0.html] appeared in the FT shows that US banks will collect roughly $38 billion in overdraft penalties this year. That should make up for a lot of their losses from other sources. The Moebs data shows that people with the lowest credit scores are those who pay the lion·s share of the fees. This cost of banking undoubtedly adds to their financial stress. Good news for financial stocks. As overdrafts soar, it's a bountiful river of cash flowing right into your pocket! These shoots are getting more insane by the day. Bank stocks? Go long. $ Ching ching $; you're overdrawn. Green Shoots Corner we are there.
Classy ClarenceMessage #162 - 08/10/09 04:22 PMIs there a "Green Shoots Corner(GSC)" stock symbol,..maybe on the DOW??? ..I am SOOOO ready to invest! 
Falling Sky - NotMessage #164 - 08/10/09 10:18 PMThe economy must be getting better because gas prices are rising again!
itstippyMessage #165 - 08/11/09 01:59 AMThe green shoots in my area are getting more and more prominent, and I couldn't figure it out until I saw this: In an effort to reduce maintenance costs, the state has instructed counties not to mow grass in the medians on state highways and to stop picking up debris along highways, unless it creates a road hazard.
The state has said it will allow one general mowing this year and will inform communities when that will happen.
·We·ve talked with the Department of Natural Resources about when to do this to avoid noxious weeds and invasive species and when it would be most effective,· Veith said. ·But so far it is hard to say when that will be.· Oh well - we're like 7 billion dollars in the red this fiscal biennium so I guess the mowing can wait. Years ago I knew a German immigrant farmer who had a little hay rake contraption and would follow the County sickle-bar mowers around as they mowed the road rights-of-way. He made hay out of it for his livestock. He was a former Hitler Youth, captured in North Africa as a member of Rommel's Afrika Corps, shipped to south central Wisconsin as a POW and put to work as a farm hand at age 19. He couldn't believe his luck, to end up in this land of milk and honey. By the time he died he had a small farm of his own and felt like a member of the landed gentry. He sure loved the USA! He painted a big American flag on his little barn, visible from the road. This was a guy who didn't have a lot of money for paint or much time to fool around with attention-getting gimmicks. He meant it.
Virgil SyonidMessage #166 - 08/14/09 06:05 AMOff of ZeroHedge: [ www.zerohedge.com/article/collapse-wake-feds-wall-street-bubble] Collapse in the Wake of the Fed's Wall Street Bubble? Bob ChapmanThe Fed·s Wall Street bubble, as we forecast in January, will need at least $2 trillion more in 2010, if the economy is to just stay on an even keel. The massive debt liquidation particularly in banking, Wall Street and in insurance demands many more trillions of dollars. $23.4 trillion is not going to be enough. Presently the Fed is in the process of monetizing $2 trillion in Treasuries, Agency paper, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and collateralized debt obligations held by lenders. It is a secret what the Fed is paying for this almost worthless paper. Is it any wonder the public has lost trust and confidence in these players and our government?
When we called the top on the dollar at 89.5 on the USDX a few months ago we never expected its decent to be as sharp as it has been. As we write it is 79, up from 77.60 in a normal bear market rally assisted by a temporary manipulation by the US government that will be of no lasting consequences. You might call this a normalization process, as a result of the unwinding of dollar gains in the de-leveraging process. The speculators got out and the banks are still upside down. The unwinding process is only half complete and that means the dollar will test 71.18 on the USDX by yearend and probably by the end of October. The banks have to reduce leverage and that makes it a lock. They are still leveraged 40 to 50 times deposits. You talk about stupid. Even Mr. Bernanke tells us tightening by raising interest rates is a long way off. In addition, world central banks are dollar sellers, even if only in a minor way. As long as the US Congress refuses to enact tariffs on goods and services the dollar will remain chronically and perpetually weak. As an aside, the further the dollar weakens the more expensive it will be for the US to purchase foreign goods, which will lead to higher inflation. That will force further dollar selling. Thus, you can more clearly see how this combination of events, accompanied by others, will continue to suppress the dollars value.
What is surprising to most but not to us was that the money in money market funds increased as the market fell. That means that leverage via borrowed money was what has driven the market rally, along with short covering and government manipulation. The Fed was the biggest factor in rigging this bear rally. We have probably seen all the public investor buying we are going to see. The US and European banks were probably given the funds by the Fed with strict instructions to push the equity market higher and use as much leverage as possible. This rally has not enticed the public to spend more and in fact, retail sales are off 6% and still falling, thus, no recovery except in the minds of Wall Street and Washington. Further to the unemployment figures, the birth/death ratio should have been 113,000 job losses higher or about 350,000. This year the B/D model has added 879,000 jobs and that figure should be 992,000, during the worst employment environment since the ·Great Depression·, which is simply beyond belief. Then to have short-term unemployment fall from 9.5% to 9.4% is incredulous. You ask how did they do that? It was due to the fact 637,000 people were dropped from the labor force, not from an increase in employment, but they did end up on the U6, which officially is 16.8% unemployment, but if you extract the B/D ratio you end up with unemployment of 20.8%. What we have witnessed is more lies and propaganda, as the administration tries to use smoke and mirrors to regain public confidence to get them to increase spending. Barry and advisors, it isn·t going to work. They are not that dumb.
A real green shoot--if you can call it that--is that Chapman, "Andy Dufresne", and others are bullish on the US T-bond markets in the short term.
Virgil SyonidMessage #167 - 08/14/09 06:15 AMAnd another thoughtful expose that should be of some interest to the permabulls (Mike WD-40 et. al.) off of [ shadowcapitalism.com/2009/08/13/the-new-bull-market-fallacy/] shadowcapitalism.com (that is, if they can stop patting themselves on the back for a few minutes): THE NEW BULL MARKET FALLACY Naufal SanaullahQasim KhanTyler DeBoerSince March lows, the S&P 500 is up over 51%, while myriad media outlets have propagated the idea of the return of economic growth to the United States and the end of its recession. Political figures and pundits offering observations of "green shoots" and sentiments of optimism and recovery are intertwined in this new bull market hysteria sweeping the financial world. Meanwhile, troubled banks and insurers who just months ago were saved from complete implosion by the taxpayer have been reporting record earnings and record compensation to go with them.
Yet the optimism reflected by equity markets and the rose-colored perspective almost pervasively offered by economic analysts and commentators is rooted in fallacious logic and Panglossian interpretation of economic conditions. The reality is, the economy is worsening, deleveraging and writedowns are far from reaching finality, earnings are misrepresenting truth, and the market has staged a bubbly technical-driven and bank/government collusion-financed bear market rally.
The rally is premised on unsustainable earnings and weakening economic fundamentals, driven by liquidity monopolization catalyzed by bank/government collusion, and is a success to those involved inasmuch that record levels of equity and debt have been sold into the rally (as well as record levels of insider sales relative to purchases), leaving the taxpayer to be the bagholder. We remain in the heart of a secular, credit-driven recession and the stock market is set for a massive correction. And it gets more green-shootey from there. An excellent read if you can make it through all 20 pages. Remember, it's the bears' taxes paying for your food stamps when this thing pops and wipes out the second half of your portfolio.
schrizoMessage #168 - 08/15/09 03:55 PMMike is not worred about another pop. He will just sit back for 20 years so he can pass the (accumulating) cash onto the kids.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:13:09 GMT -5
JnapMessage #169 - 08/15/09 09:21 PMI am worried all the time. I worry that the market is over bought, under bought, over valued, under valued and just about every other condition that it possible. I have been worried about it for the last 40 years; practically my whole investing life. Worrying is part of investing just like breathing is part of living. Worrying isn't a bad thing anymore than planning and organization, as a way to conduct your life, is a undesirable trait. I am using the term worry as a synonym for concern that I have made the right investment decisions. It is easy when you have little to lose but becomes much more difficult when the amount of money, possibly represents, years of income. Investing money is a responsibility, directly proportional, to the amount in question. But even if it is a small amount it should always be invested with great concern because it represents a portion of your financial life which should be constantly growing. I know that it is not possible to always have gains but isn't that the goal? I have learned one thing about the stock market and that is to never fight the momentum, either positive or negative. Consensus is always right and fair evaluations, ultimately, are always found. The consensus is positive, at this time, so whatever you may personally believe the economy and the market will improve.
Bythe wayMessage #170 - 08/29/09 09:17 AMEverything is green... Here we can see Mr Geithner in a ' Green Bernanke' suit after the purchase of a subsidized Green Car with Cash for Clunkers funds. Now he is ready to assit to Bernanke's reappointment ceremony as The Boss, er Chairman of the Fed 
Virgil SyonidMessage #173 - 09/04/09 05:33 PMThx, djrick. Nothing says 'green shoots' more than the government bailing out the FDIC. For those looking for their daily dose of green shoots humour: [ www.zerohedge.com/article/if-you-believe-all-negative-hype-about-commercial-real-estate-ive-got-few-thousand-vacant-of] From Turds to Tulips Excerpt: One of the wolf-crying anti-capitalists at the Wall Street Journal paints a grim picture: $1 trillion in mortgages backed by commercial property that's fast losing value, total losses on core CRE holdings reaching between 11.6% and 15.3%, or $115 billion and $150 billion, and the fact that more than 3,000 banks have more than 300% of their risk-based capital in commercial real-estate loans. And those are among the more optimistic of the pessimists' forecasts.
They also keep harping on certain macro-economic irrelevancies: businesses floundering, revenues flatlining, rents dropping and employees still being shown the door in droves (empty office space that most likely will be used by remaining employees to expand the size of their own offices). But none of those factors bodes badly for CRE. They're all what we experts call "lagging indicators," which means that they look backward instead of forward, and therefore can be safely ignored.
But more importantly, the doomsdayers are making the classic mistake of confusing subjective value with objective value. (Bear with me here even if you don't have an advanced economics degree.) These economic relativists think that a product only has value to the extent someone is willing to pay for it, i.e., to the extent that, in the subjective opinion of some prospective buyer, it has value. But we all know that's not how the real world works. Goods and services have intrinsic value. That's why FASB had the courage to yield to the greater wisdom of Congress and the banking industry and relax mark-to-market accounting. No market exists for CRE loans and CMBS, just like none exists for commercial real estate generally. But that doesn't mean that CRE, and the loans and securities that are derived from it, don't have value. They retain their objective value despite the fact that everyone thinks they're so worthless that they're unwilling to buy them at virtually any price.
A simple example illustrates the principle. Suppose I produce a giant steaming turd. Now if I put that turd up for sale, I probably wouldn't get any offers. Why? Not because my bowel movement is unsaleable, but because no market for it exists. Sure, the relativists will claim that the absence of a market is an indication (if not irrefutable proof) that my feces is worthless, but they'd just be describing its subjective value. Their opinion wouldn't indicate anything about it's all-important objective value. And since I produced the product, I'm in the best position to know its objective value and account for it accordingly.
So, for lack of a more palatable metaphor, the CRE market is analogous to a pile of crap. Just because everyone thinks it stinks doesn't mean it actually does. Because no market for it exists, we'll never know what it's true value is at this moment, which means that CRE lenders should continue to value their legacies at whatever price they subjectively believe they're objectively worth. Later on, that fetid stool I produced might just be used to fertilize a garden, and what seems like worthless shit today might end up smelling like a bouquet of flowers tomorrow. And that's what REITs and banks with CRE loans are doing. They're looking ahead to the brighter future of CRE, where today's turds are tomorrow's tulips. Happy faces were added by me. Happy green shootin'!
Virgil SyonidMessage #174 - 09/09/09 09:45 PMThe greenest shoot of them all: [ www.zerohedge.com/article/grand-debt-illusion-faqs-about-national-debt] How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Debt: FAQs About the National Debt Debt being a good thing is indeed among the greenest of shoots.
DuffminsterMessage #176 - 09/19/09 09:12 PM [ truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/09/taxpayer-bailout-of-fdic-on-deck.html] Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – ZERO - Voltaire 1729 Friday, September 18, 2009 [ truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/09/taxpayer-bailout-of-fdic-on-deck.html] Taxpayer Bailout of the FDIC on Deck... "The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering tapping a Treasury Department line of credit as the agency examines ways to replenish a reserve fund depleted by 92 bank failures this year, Chairman Sheila Bair said." Here's the link: [www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anA40Xh8bco4] Open Up Your Checkbook, People
Some things to consider: Anyone find it strange that every week only 3 or 4 banks are closed? I know for a fact that the Government has the manpower to shut down only 3 or 4 per week, although hundreds need to be closed down. When a bank is closed, you need manpower FOR EACH BANK BRANCH to clear out all employees, secure the vault, secure the books, secure the cash and guard the door, plus all the beancounters to go over the books.
But it's not only lack of manpower, the FDIC is dragging its feet on closures to conserve cash, presumably praying for some kind of economic miracle. But the fact of the matter is that 100's possibly 1000's of banks need to be closed down or rescued and this going to be a multi-trillion dollar exercise. At some point, we may actually face a bank holiday in order to prevent an inevitable run on the banks. My advice would be to keep minimal cash balances at your local bank - your bank could be next - and move as much money as possible into gold and silver.
Prediction: Wells Fargo will be the next big bank to blow up.
Open Up Your Checkbook, People www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anA40Xh8bco4Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering tapping a Treasury Department line of credit as the agency examines ways to replenish a reserve fund depleted by 92 bank failures this year, Chairman [search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Sheila+Bair&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1] Sheila Bair said. The FDIC·s board will seek public comment on options that may include charging banks a fee, issuing debt or tapping the Treasury, Bair said today at a [msb.georgetown.edu/globalfinance/] conference at Georgetown University in Washington. Lawmakers this week urged Bair to use the borrowing authority that was expanded in May. ·We are currently considering all options, including borrowing from the Treasury,· Bair said. The FDIC insurance fund, used to pay depositors of failed banks, fell to $10.4 billion as of June 30, the lowest since the savings-and-loan crisis in 1993, the agency reported last month. Community banks are lobbying the FDIC and Congress to keep the agency from charging the industry an additional fee to bolster the fund, saying lenders are struggling to raise capital and have already paid an emergency fee this year. The agency has the authority to tap a Treasury line of credit that Congress in May increased to $100 billion, with a temporary ceiling of $500 billion through 2010. ·Hot Coals· ·In my opinion, Chairman Bair would rather walk over hot coals than draw on the line of credit from Treasury,· [search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Camden+Fine&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1] Camden Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers of America, said today in a telephone interview. Fine·s group has opposed an assessment to boost the fund, saying it would unfairly burden small banks. U.S. Representative [search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barney+Frank&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1] Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who leads the [financialservices.house.gov/] House Financial Services Committee, and Senator [search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Carl+Levin&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1] Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said this week the FDIC should borrow from the Treasury instead of levying a fee. ·There is a philosophical question about the Treasury credit line, whether that is there for losses we know we will have or whether it·s there for unexpected emergencies,· Bair said today, noting that there is conflict in Washington over whether taxpayers or the industry should bear the burden. Borrowing from the industry would be the most attractive option, Fine said. ·You·re not using taxpayer money,· he said. ·You move away from the stigma of borrowing from the taxpayer and all of the baggage that comes with it.· The agency classified 416 banks as ·problem· institutions in the second quarter, a status that suggests they are at greater risk of failing. Historically, 13
Virgil SyonidMessage #177 - 09/28/09 06:59 PMIndeed, the tenderest of green shoots... [ thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2009/09/unemployment-for-young-americans-at-522.html] Unemployment for Young Americans The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2 percent -- a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Dept. -- meaning millions of Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time.
And worse, without a clear economic recovery plan aimed at creating entry-level jobs, the odds of many of these young adults -- aged 16 to 24, excluding students -- getting a job and moving out of their parents' houses are long. Young workers have been among the hardest hit during the current recession -- in which a total of 9.5 million jobs have been lost.
A much slower recovery is forecast today. Shierholz believes it could take four or five years to ramp up jobs again.
Labor Dept. statistics also show that the number of chronically unemployed -- those without a job for 27 weeks or more -- has also hit a post-WWII high. Remember, as Homer Simpson would say: You can't spell unemployed without employed. Happy trading. Or... let's not fool ourselves. With SPY volumes like today's, what are the odds that any of us are among the 31 or possibly 32 people in North America actually trading anything?
Falling Sky - NotMessage #178 - 10/09/09 10:36 PMBy Lisa Lambert WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy may be creeping toward recovery after the worst slowdown since the Great Depression, but many states see no end in sight to their diving tax revenues. Tax revenues used to pay teachers and fuel police cars continue to trail even the most pessimistic expectations, despite the cash from the economic stimulus plan pouring into state coffers. "It's crazy. It's really just unbelievable," said Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, and called the states' revenue situations "close to unprecedented." Most states had been pessimistic in forecasting their tax revenues for the 2010 fiscal year, Pattison said. So far, collections have fallen below even those low targets. Lower tax revenues could lead to higher taxes or another sharp reduction in services if receipts do not show signs of improvement before year-end, as every state but Vermont is required by law to balance their budgets. That could mean fewer teachers, early prisoner releases and fewer highway repairs as residents battle soaring unemployment. States are coming off a terrible first quarter, which for most states began on July 1. Among the worst cases is Indiana where revenue collections were 8 percent below forecast, or $254 million lower than expected, leading state budget officials to speculate revenue could fall $1 billion by the end of the fiscal year. Iowa cut its fiscal 2010 revenue estimate by 8.4 percent this week. That prompted Governor Chet Cutler on Thursday to order spending reductions of 10 percent across the board. "The fact is clear. Iowa has not spent too much; rather our revenue has fallen off by significant amounts as the result of the national economic recession," Culver said in a statement. Last week, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour said his state's September tax collections were 10 percent less than forecast. "It is likely that more spending cuts will be necessary in this fiscal year to ensure a balanced state budget," Barbour said. In California, general fund revenues for the first three months of the fiscal year were $1.1 billion below estimates in its budget, State Controller John Chiang said on Friday. "While there are encouraging signs that California's economy is preparing for a comeback, the recession continues to drag state revenues down," he said in a statement. Green Shoots? Where's the recovery at the state level??
DuffminsterMessage #179 - 10/15/09 08:33 PMnull
Virgil SyonidMessage #180 - 10/19/09 11:00 PMTo help quash the growing 'green shoots' movement that 'what's bad for the world is good for America', I present for your digestion: [ www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.09/nextwave.html] Next Wave of Banking Crisis to come from Eastern Europe Excerpts:European banks face an entirely new wave of losses in coming months not yet calculated in any government bank rescue aid to date. Unlike the losses of US banks which derive initially from their exposures to low-quality sub-prime real estate and other securitized lending, the problems of western European banks, most especially in Austria, Sweden and perhaps Switzerland arise from the massive volumes of loans they made during the 2002-2007 period of extreme low international interest rates to clients in eastern European countries.
The problems in Eastern Europe which are just now emerging with full force are, if you will, an indirect consequence of the libertine monetary policies of the Greenspan Fed from 2002 until 2006, the period where Wall Street's asset backed securitization Ponzi Scheme took off.
The riskiness of these eastern European loans is now coming to light as the global economic recession in both east and west Europe is forcing western banks to pull back, refusing to renew loans or 'rollover' the credits, leaving thousands of borrowers with unpayable loan debts. The dimension of the eastern European emerging loan crisis pales anything yet realized. It will force a radical new look at the entire question of bank nationalizations in coming weeks regardless what nice hopes politicians in any party entertain. The size of risks are staggering
The amount of loans potentially at risk involve mostly Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Swedish and it is believed German banks. Once the countries of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact declared independence in the early 1990's west European banks rushed in to buy on the cheap the major banks in most of the newly independent east countries. As US interest rate cuts after the stock crisis in 2002 pushed interest rates around the world to new lows, easy credit led to higher risk lending across borders in foreign currencies. In countries such as Hungary Swiss and Austrian banks promoted home mortgage loans denominated in Swiss Franc where interest rates were significantly lower. The only risk at the time was if the Hungarian currency were to devalue, forcing homeowners in Hungary to repay sometimes double the monthly amount in Swiss Francs. That is what has happened over the past 18 months as western banks and funds have dramatically reduced their speculative investments in eastern countries to repatriate capital back home where the mother banks had serious problems caused by the US banking catastrophe. In the case of the Polish Zloty, the currency has dropped in recent months by 50%. The volume of mortgages existing in foreign currencies in Poland is not known but London estimates are that it could be huge.
In the case of Austrian banks, the country faces a rerun of the 1931 Vienna Creditanstalt crisis which in chain-reaction spread to the German banks and brought Continental Europe into the economic crisis of 1931-33. At the recent EU Finance Ministers' meeting in Brussels, Austrian Finance Minister Josef Prall reportedly pleaded with his colleagues to come up with a ···150 billion rescue package for the banks in eastern Europe. Austrian banks alone have lent ···230 billion there, equivalent to 70% of Austria 's GDP. Austria 's largest bank, Bank Austria, which in turn is owned by Italy's Unicredito along with the German HypoVereinsbank, faces what the Vienna press calls a 'monetary Stalingrad' over its loan exposure in the east. In a botter historic irony, Bank Austria bought the Vienna Creditanstalt in recent years in its wave of mergers.
According to estimates published in the Vienna financial press, were only 10% of the Austrian loans in the east to default in coming months, it 'would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial system.' The EU's European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London estimates that bad debts in the east will exceed 10% and 'may reach 20%.'
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:14:01 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #181 - 11/04/09 06:09 AMBeing a control systems engineer by trade, I keep an eye out for fascinating dynamical systems (yes, Mae, 'dynamical' is a word, and no, it does not mean the same thing as 'dynamic'). The post-October-2008 foreign exchanges happen to be one of them. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/mass-chaos-confusion-and-bewilderment-among-quants-today] This article sheds some light on subjects near and dear to my heart: questioning the stability of algorithmic trading. Algo trading is an increasingly dominant (and explosively popular) market component that by nature feeds back into itself without any regard for the modes (i.e. feedback loops, oscillations, and general schizoscedasticity) that it generates. The article is certainly on the lighthearted side, but it highlights the 'low down' quite well: - The current AAP/VWAP -based generation of program trade software tends to 'fuse' stock prices into artificially monolithic 'market blocks' that can severely diminish the effectiveness of picking 'a' stock based on assumptions about the underlying equity.
- The system is getting increasingly chaotic and much harder to game.
- As the pool gets more and more crowded, things are only going to get worse.
Excerpt: Over the last 3 days, the 19-year old gamers running the multi-billion portfolios at TIAA-CREF and CalPers have "reduced risk" by turning off the 60-min. chart and are now using 15-second and 3-minute charts only. Of course, they are all following the same meatball tick for tick: The EUR/USD. But now some of the Algos are breaking down, and the fire extinguishers are now out hosing down the various grease fires in the computers.
Trading is now becoming totally chaotic. On the one hand, you have the Forex Megadroid leveraged speculators and the Forex Gridbot gamers in the FX markets now getting whipsawed and thrown overboard trying to game the USD/YEN and the EUR/USD. Now they have tightened down the timeframes, and instead of trading 150 times a day, they are now gunning the 5-second chart and trading 1,500 times a day.
Of course, this havoc automatically sweeps over to the stock market, as the 15-min. chart of the EUR/USD and every stock in the Wilshire 5000 has the exact same trading pattern, as if their ankles were tied together in a Chain Gang. Decided to post it here due to its 'green shootey' flavour. Bon apetit.
decoy409Message #182 - 11/04/09 03:11 PMVirgil,good morning Virgil do me a favor and take a look at my latest posts #582,584,585,586 on the decoy post as to some solar info. Please pay attention to the 2 small news clips. You are the only one that I know of on MT that has useful insight as to these things. Who knows,there probably is others. Thank you.
DuffminsterMessage #183 - 11/05/09 10:36 PMGreat article virgil. I needed to pay a visit back to Green Shoots Corner, not just because "Its the Place to Be," but because this excerpt from the Midas letter just seemed to sum things up pretty well and seemed to fit right in. As I see it we are currently in a government created cataclysmic "lull" that requires massive spin 24/7 to keep balanced. The West has printed and borrowed (and plans to borrow) massive currency amounts that did not and do not currently exist without more central bank currency and credit creation. And the result so far? "Things are less bad"! Less bad? Yes, because things are "less bad" they must be better right? Wrong! The banking system is worse than last year but we can't see the reality behind the curtain because the banks (with government permission and prodding) show us earnings based on $ billions of free government money and false marks on virtually worthless derivative assets. The West also has many treasuries that have become walking zombies that have blindly followed the U.S. Treasury into the black hole of too much debt. The current financial positions of even "good" Western central banks and treasuries today would have been considered deadbeat bankrupts just 20 years ago but don't worry because things are less bad and "the government will never allow a collapse". Government policy got us to where we are now and people expect government policy to get us out? This is like asking the drunk cab driver that just ran you into a pole to drive you to the hospital! So now we are at the time of year where Christmas sales forecasts come fast and furious. We hear + or - same store sales etc., etc.. In my opinion it is a moot point because the entire system is broke top to bottom, from hobo to U.S. Treasury. Follow this through, the cornerstone of any economy is it's banking system. The current banking system would not even exist today except for government handouts and loans. The current banking system throughout all of history would be deemed and declared bankrupt if they had to "mark to market" ie TELL THE TRUTH! So without government cash stuffed in their back pockets and Alice's looking glass the TRUTH is that the banking system is broke. But wait, it gets better. The "saviours", as in the U.S. Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, etc. have mathematically bankrupted themselves in the process of "saving the world". The next wave of deflationary deleveraging will bust everything wide open because the financial balance and sentiment is so fragile. Gold that supposedly exists doesn't, derivatives that supposedly have value and underpin other "values" has none, banks that supposedly are solvent are not and treasuries that supposedly have money have not printed it nor borrowed it yet. The entire system is hocus pocus and perception. If borrowing and printing was the answer to all things financial then we would be now living in "Nirvana", we are not. Hard work, savings, innovation, risking equity, a solid banking system and treasuries with actual Gold in their vaults is the road to financial Nirvana. Fake money and paper Gold, overleveraged treasuries and economies, risking "other peoples money and welfare are the road to hell!
neohguyMessage #184 - 11/10/09 01:15 PMI found one! www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33805402/ns/us_news-life Recession·s good news: Cities see burglaries fall ..."With a lot more unemployed people, a lot more people are staying home, and they see more in their neighborhood," said Sgt. Thomas Lasater, who supervises the burglary unit of the police department in St. Louis County, Mo., where authorities recorded a whopping 35 percent drop in burglaries during the first six months of 2009.
In Minneapolis, the number of burglaries reported in roughly the first nine months of the year dropped more than 15 percent compared with the same period last year, and more than 25 percent compared with that period in 2007. In Boston, the 2,199 burglaries reported in roughly the first nine months of the year is 335 fewer than in the same period last year.
Aurora, a city of 170,000 outside Chicago, had 560 burglaries through the end of September, a 15.5 percent decrease from the same period last year. And in Shelby, N.C., a town of 21,000, the number of burglaries through August was 23, compared with 60 for the same time last year....
Virgil SyonidMessage #185 - 12/13/09 09:56 PMRecession·s good news: Cities see burglaries fall The burglars have all crawled back into their holes on Wall Street. Denninger has a particularly informative rant today: market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2009/12/13.htmlNothing says 'recovery' like a meltdown in public services. Summers can use this to come up with the next 'Jobs Stimulus' plan in three easy steps: - Take 10% of public wages away from states neighbouring New York. If they complain, point to New York as an 'example' and tell 'em to suck it up.
- Use scalped 10% to create several million 2-hours-a-week jobs.
- Redefine U6 unemployment from "works less than 4 hours a week" to "works less than 2 hours per week".
Presto! Instant jobs recovery! Oh, Green Shoots Corner here we come!
Virgil SyonidMessage #186 - 12/13/09 10:01 PMBelated thanks to Duff for his many contributions. I just did a little review.
decoy409Message #187 - 12/13/09 10:19 PMDuff ,was that a relief to get off your chest or what. Nothing like telling it like it is and thanks for putting it out.
itstippyMessage #188 - 12/23/09 01:57 AMOoo! Green! U.S. Economy Grew at 2.2% Annual Rate Last Quarter Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The economy in the U.S. expanded in the third quarter at a slower pace than anticipated as companies curbed spending and cut inventories at an even faster pace, reductions that have set the stage for acceleration in growth. www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aVeAMaVRygoM
Virgil SyonidMessage #189 - 01/05/10 08:28 PMSeems like there's more greenshootery today from Byron Wien. Nobody quite knows what he's smoking, but he could give Frank-o a run for his money. As usual, we turn to our font of red pills at ZH for Rosenberg's rebuttal (bold by me): No doubt that the global economy appears to be on a firm footing, but much of this has reflected dramatic fiscal stimulus, overbuilding and credit extension in China. Only the future knows how sustainable this is.
We do know that just about all the growth in the U.S.A. in Q4 is coming from inventory restocking; and that every basis point of growth in Q3 came from government stimulus, directly and indirectly. The same stock market that couldn·t see a recession coming in late 2007 even though it was two months away, doesn·t see how low-quality this ·recovery· is since there is nothing organic about it. The market is relying continuously on government support, so much so that nearly 20% · by far a record · of U.S. personal income is now coming from Uncle Sam·s generosity in the form of transfers. This deserves a lower-than-normal price-earnings multiple, but it may take time for Mr. Market to figure this out, just as it took several quarters for it to see the effects of a housing recession and credit collapse two years ago. The stock market, in other words, has managed to become a classic lagging indicator.
The consensus sees $76 operating EPS for the S&P 500 in 2010, which would be a 36% increase from 2009. Meanwhile, the consensus basically sees 4% nominal GDP growth for 2010, which would suggest a 10% profit rise in 2010, which would imply a solid but somewhat less exuberant $62 EPS call for the year. Remember that this time last year the consensus was at $77 operating EPS for 2009 and we got $56 · what saved the market was the Geithner & Bernanke show. What do they do for an encore this year?
Keep that last point in the back of your mind. At the end of 2008, the consensus was at $77 for S&P 500 operating EPS for 2009. Even by the end of January, when it was so obvious that the bear market and recession were far from over, the bottom-up consensus was calling for operating earnings to come in at just under $70 per share. What did we end up with for 2009 when all was said and done? Try $56 EPS or 27% below what ·market participants· were predicting when the year began.
Forget all the calculations off the ·artificial· March lows. Forget the 25% slide in the first 10 weeks of the year to that awful trough. Here is the reality. The S&P 500, from point to point, rallied 23% in 2009 even though earnings for the year as whole came in a whopping $22 a share or 27% below what was being priced in at the start of the year. Now that is remarkable. It almost wants to make you believe in the tooth fairy. Perhaps the following is what's meant by 'green shoots' (i.e. green and shooting up): 
Crying TreeMessage #191 - 01/06/10 04:51 AMWhen I was a young guy and struggling I used to wish someone would break into my house so I could legally beat the crap out of them. MAYBE THAT IS WHY CRIME IS DOWN. I only have one knife scar and that is pretty good for a guy who grew up in the back alleys of L.A.
Crying TreeMessage #192 - 01/06/10 05:10 AMSorry, This is the Green Shoots Corner. I was not allowed to smoke that stuff where I worked because of drug testing. Canada came in fourth in the world bud contest in Demark. Prices are cheap up there but there are many dogs are the border. You really don't expect us us to go through all this crap straight do you? Happy Days are here again! Pass the medicine. No the medical stuff you fool.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:14:54 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #193 - 01/28/10 12:37 AMFrom Yahoo finance: [ cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=17810664&src=finance&ch=289021] Green Shoots 101 Well worth the watch. This means you, Frank.
kman49Message #194 - 01/28/10 01:55 AMWell Virgil. He has been right 75% of the time. According to him. Buffett said it would be a shambles. Not impressed by this dude. This market will surprise you. I know business is better for me but it all depends on where you live.
Virgil SyonidMessage #195 - 01/28/10 02:17 AMHe's one among hundreds of talking heads. Figured it was worth a watch now that Goldman, JPM, and even Go-Go Cramer are getting bearish. The earnings just aren't there to support stock prices. Housing is in a firm double-dip. Deficits remain in the 1.5 trillion range. QE2 is about to get underway. Yields on 1 mo. treasuries are negative again. Particularly, I like the quote about 'hope' being a great strength but an even greater enemy. 
kman49Message #196 - 01/28/10 03:13 AMCramer works for GS. Expect the opposite. Famous for shorting.
Virgil SyonidMessage #197 - 02/02/10 02:50 PM[ www.zerohedge.com/article/obamas-budget-has-one-small-missing-piece-63-trillion-dollars] Obama's Budget Has One Small, Missing Piece.... For $6.3 Trillion Dollars From ZH. Bold by me. Today, to much fanfare, the administration released its ridiculous $3+ trillion budget (we say + because at that size the one thing certain is that the budget will certainly never hit the target and while we wish it would be lower, we are certain it will end up materially higher), which consists of a "short" 192-page summary section and a 1420 page appendix. We are confident that not one politician will read the whole thing from cover to cover. We won't either. Not because we don't care about what's in it, but because we are much more concerned with what is not included, namely $2.8 Trillion and $1.9 Trillion of MBS guaranteed portfolios at Fannie and Freddie, and an additional $782 billion and $809 billion in company debt outstanding for the two GSEs, respectively. This amounts to a total of $6.3 trillion in liabilities which should be counted toward the budget. And yet, oddly, the error-checker somehow made this rather justifiable omission: after all if we were to look at a number which written out looks as follows $6,264,000,000,000.00, we would also probably just avoid it - it is somewhat difficult to hide a number that big even in the 1,420 pages of the budget's appendix. That's ok, we are here to remind them about the omission, and also to remind Mr. Orszag, who himself, in that long ago 2008, espoused that these companies should be put on the Federal Budget. Isn't it strange what one and a half years worth of realizations just how broken beyond repair the system is, will do to one's convictions? Tyler goes on to prove Orszag's about-face on FNMA/FHMC. Classic. Check out Rep. Stark's 'Why Debt is a Good Thing' rant on YouTube if you want the green shoots angle on the whole thing.
Virgil SyonidMessage #198 - 02/16/10 11:57 PMAnother green-shootey milestone. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/capital-one-january-charge-offs-hit-record] Capital One January Charge Offs Hit Record: Nothing good to see in the credit card arena. Capital One's [www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000119312510030828/dex991.htm] January annualized net charge offs hit a record 10.41%, while 30-Day delinquencies stayed at the highest of the past 3 months. Then again with entire countries defaulting, it really is a shocker than neither of these numbers is at 100% yet (or higher, courtesy of sound GAAP accounting principles). If Greece can be bailed out, surely that payment for the 7th $2,000 plasma TV can be buried under the rug, thank you IMF. What isn't mentioned in the article is that a record 10.5% isn't a record 15.0%. A premium green shoot. They still have a trickle of revenue. It hits 15%, 18% annual interest equates to zero revenue no matter how much the vaunted 'consumer' spends. Somehow, I don't think the equity markets can manage to spin zero revenue into justification for the current prices.
outaheresoonMessage #199 - 02/17/10 12:19 AMThank you, Virgil. It's always nice to get confirmation that leaving the U.S. was the right decision. 
Virgil SyonidMessage #200 - 02/17/10 12:29 AMThank you, Virgil. It's always nice to get confirmation that leaving the U.S. was the right decision. Depends on where you've gone to. There are plenty of green shoots popping up in Europe, the Middle East, Russia, China, and yes, Singapore.
outaheresoonMessage #201 - 02/17/10 12:36 AMDepends on where you've gone to.
Think south, Virgil. I now type away to the sound of the waves. We had some great Jumbo prawns tonight for $20 per kilo. The beer is cold and Wall Street is eons away.
Virgil SyonidMessage #202 - 02/17/10 12:41 AMYou'll be back... You'll miss American TV.
outaheresoonMessage #203 - 02/17/10 12:54 AMYou'll miss American TV.
I've got that too, unfortunately...cable internet, to boot.
Virgil SyonidMessage #204 - 02/17/10 01:08 AMWell, good luck. Personally, I'd think twice about eating a kilo of dirt-cheap shrimp anywhere south of Texas.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:15:46 GMT -5
outaheresoonMessage #205 - 02/17/10 01:14 AMPersonally, I'd think twice about eating a kilo of dirt-cheap shrimp anywhere south of Texas. Not at all...they're fresh as a daisy. The new third world is north of the border.
Virgil SyonidMessage #206 - 02/17/10 01:25 AMTheir freshness isn't what I'm worried about. I'd like to be within close reach of first world medical care if the prawns happened to precipitate 'green shoots' of another variety.
neohguyMessage #207 - 02/18/10 02:08 PMWhat's Not In Your Wallet? [ www.theonion.com/content/news/u_s_economy_grinds_to_halt_as] www.theonion.com/content/news/u_s_economy_grinds_tBusiness U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion February 16, 2010 | [ www.theonion.com/content/index/4607] Issue 46•07 WASHINGTON·The U.S. economy ceased to function this week after unexpected existential remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke shocked Americans into realizing that money is, in fact, just a meaningless and intangible social construct.....
What began as a routine report before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday ended with Bernanke passionately disavowing the entire concept of currency, and negating in an instant the very foundation of the world's largest economy.
"Though raising interest rates is unlikely at the moment, the Fed will of course act appropriately if we·if we·" said Bernanke, who then paused for a moment, looked down at his prepared statement, and shook his head in utter disbelief. "You know what? It doesn't matter. None of this·this so-called 'money'·really matters at all."
"It's just an illusion," a wide-eyed Bernanke added as he removed bills from his wallet and slowly spread them out before him. "Just look at it: Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Worthless." .....
Virgil SyonidMessage #208 - 02/18/10 03:37 PMGood to see another onion fan among us. They're also the authors of the brilliant [ www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_know_should_the_government] money hole satire.
Virgil SyonidMessage #209 - 02/18/10 04:56 PM[ www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32255149/wall_streets_bailout_hustle/print] Wall Street's Bailout Hustle by Rolling Stone. The crux: There's still a widespread misunderstanding of how exactly Wall Street "earns" its money, with emphasis on the quotation marks around "earns." The question everyone should be asking, as one bailout recipient after another posts massive profits · Goldman reported $13.4 billion in profits last year, after paying out that $16.2 billion in bonuses and compensation · is this: In an economy as horrible as ours, with every factory town between New York and Los Angeles looking like those hollowed-out ghost ships we see on History Channel documentaries like Shipwrecks of the Great Lakes, where in the hell did Wall Street's eye-popping profits come from, exactly? Did Goldman go from bailout city to $13.4 billion in the black because, as Blankfein suggests, its "performance" was just that awesome? A year and a half after they were minutes away from bankruptcy, how are these assholes not only back on their feet again, but hauling in bonuses at the same rate they were during the bubble?
The answer to that question is basically twofold: They raped the taxpayer, and they raped their clients. Easily a 3/4 'green shoot' rating.  On the bright side, the jobless recovery is giving most an opportunity to brush up on their reading.
neohguyMessage #210 - 02/18/10 05:19 PMOn the bright side, the jobless recovery is giving most an opportunity to brush up on their reading. Actually, I hung out in the library quite a bit in the early 80's when I was out of work. I hear many libraries are closing or reducing hours because of budget cuts this time.
Virgil SyonidMessage #211 - 02/18/10 05:37 PMI hear many libraries are closing or reducing hours because of budget cuts this time. Yeah, b--. No. No, wait. We c... we can greet shoot this too. Uhm.... Uhhhhm.... .. . Closed libraries ...kids will flock to the public parks. ...child injury rates will rise. ...more uninsured people their savings into medical bills. ...which is a perfect stimulus for the GP business. Hence, after rigorous examination, library closures are a good thing. Green shoots acres, here we come!
Virgil SyonidMessage #213 - 02/21/10 04:17 PMOK. The above is a true green shoot. Thanks for reminding us that there are still businessmen with a Christian ethic out there, djrick.
anonymous888Message #214 - 02/22/10 02:19 AMI think the only green shoots left Virgil are the ones growing in Emperor Obama's garden
Veteran_LenderMessage #215 - 02/22/10 11:34 AMI hear many libraries are closing or reducing hours because of budget cuts this time. Many libraries are shifting to becoming research facilities (always were but...). My college daughter says a Research Librarian is worth much more than a Librarian and is in higher demand. One thing about books and knowledge as a Green Shoot... the rare ones aren't necessarily all that old but are definitely hard to find.
Virgil SyonidMessage #216 - 02/23/10 05:23 PMGreen shoots popping up all over the place today. As usual, Tyler has gone out frontrunning the greenest bits:  [ www.zerohedge.com/article/mass-layoffs-surge-january-highest-july-2009] Mass Layoffs Surge In January, Highest Since July 2009 [ www.zerohedge.com/article/fdic-hits-record-default-levels-deposit-insurance-fund-plunges-127-billion-negative-209-bill] FDIC Hits Record "Default" Level As Deposit Insurance Fund Plunges By $12.7 Billion To NEGATIVE 20.9 Billion [ www.zerohedge.com/article/consumer-confidence-plunges-565-460-present-situation-index-lowest-february-1983] Consumer Confidence Plunges From 56.5 To 46.0, Consensus At 55.0, Present Situation Index Lowest Since February 1983  [ www.zerohedge.com/article/home-prices-double-dip-validated-unadjusted-case-shiller-numbers-indicate-third-sequential-m] Home Prices Double Dip Validated As Unadjusted Case-Shiller Numbers Indicate Third Sequential MoM Decline Apologies for link spamming, but the green shoot undergrowth here is so rich and plentiful it can't be properly excerpted. Green shoots acres, here we come.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:16:39 GMT -5
neohguyMessage #217 - 03/01/10 11:55 AMLooks like we are going to experience a historic seven figure drop in continuing claims in the coming months. The sad thing is that the average citizen won't know why.
Virgil SyonidMessage #218 - 03/24/10 09:51 PMFrank, this one's for you: [ www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-runs-out-low-rate-options-ust-must-be-considering-wholesale-shift-out-risky-assets-bills] Fed is Running Out of Low-Rate Options I won't even bother excerpting it, because the whole article is required reading for any serious MarketTalker.
decoy409Message #219 - 03/24/10 10:10 PMVirgil , this is why the maket orcale was poking fun at our goverment last fall,useless notes of paper nobody wants. Guy was like yelling and going off saying "here,here! Have one,Have two! Blow your nose on it! Wipe your rear off! Go ahead!" it was more than funny. Lets look at the good old times just a mere few years ago! 
decoy409Message #220 - 03/24/10 10:15 PMNow heres ENTERTAINMENT! U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK The Outstanding Public Debt as of 24 Mar 2010 at 10:13:40 PM GMT is:  The estimated population of the United States is 308,068,381so each citizen's share of this debt is $41,143.38. The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $4.04 billion per day since September 28, 2007! Concerned? www.usdebtclock.org/ Simply unbelievable how quiet it has remained.
kman49Message #221 - 03/24/10 11:41 PMrequired reading for any serious MarketTalker. I took a peak at it anyway! Negative growth is up!!!
djrickMessage #222 - 03/24/10 11:49 PM My green shoot prediction, new highs in the markets before the fund managers close this quarter... BONUSES for everyone. Don't let that red on your screen today scare you, buy the dips! Not only are the FX markets completely disconnected from reality but everything is disconnected from reality. Ask someone bullish why they believe the markets will continue higher and their answer is always "the trend is your friend." Ask about fundamentals and they say "doesn't matter right now." Now they have been correct up to this point but at some point all of this matters. Just like in 2000 the world will wake up to the fact that a company must justify their stock price with sales or growth. Hope only goes so far. In the meantime, good luck.
gram1946Message #223 - 03/25/10 12:43 AMWall street is sort of like Congress. Any time they want a raise, they just take one.
neohguyMessage #224 - 03/25/10 11:39 AMI won't even bother excerpting it, because the whole article is required reading for any serious MarketTalker. Slick move if it could be pulled off. How do you crash the market without WS help? Who holds more cards? The treasury? WS?
ŽMessage #225 - 03/25/10 12:43 PM Thanks for the link Virgil. I won't pretend to understand all of it but it makes sense. I have a question for those that understand more than me (just about everybody here). Would it even matter if a way could be found to crash the market to get investors running back to bonds? The idea seems to be to get investors to help the govt to continue massive deficit spending. I keep coming back to my thought that the Federal debt is going to get so high in a few years that the dollar will have to be devalued in some kind of way just to be able to pay the interest. It would seem to me the market would go up because the value of the fixed assets and price of products would go up. They would be worth the same but the representation of their value, the dollar, would change. That's why I wonder if being in the market would be a hedge against inflation.
neohguyMessage #226 - 03/25/10 01:03 PMZ, The fact that you recognize that there are problems and are trying to size up the situation makes you better informed than 90% of the population imo.
Virgil SyonidMessage #227 - 03/25/10 01:54 PM·, therein lies the paradox. If the Fed decides (note that Tyler retains a healthy dose of skepticism) to engineer a Treasury-saving crash, your natural recourse is to get the heck out of the market. But your observation about stocks being one of the most inflation-proof investments is also spot on. I'm among the few Doomers on the board who can honestly envision Dow 15,000 in short order. The issue therefore becomes timing. How to pull out before a potentially violent downswing; how to detect where the markets will finally find support. If you're a long-term investor, it might be worth sitting through the pain of a major correction. Like Tyler, I figure the Fed might have some more deficit-building, meltdown-postponing tricks up its sleeve. Stock prices are ultimately connected to earnings, earnings are connected to sales, and if you have good reason to believe that the sales will still be around by 2015, holding on to your stocks is (ironically) your safest bet.
Virgil SyonidMessage #228 - 04/15/10 12:41 AM[ www.zerohedge.com/article/332-days-till-dow-36000-spy-has-become-4x-leveraged-etf-xlf] 332 Days Till Dow 36,000, As SPY Has Become A 4x Leveraged ETF On The XLF At today's rate of market melt up, we will hit Dow 36,000 in 332 days, or on March 12, 2011. This should occur a few days before Bernanke finally agrees to raise the discount rate to 0.50 bps. Also, at today's rate of price change, we will hit $715/bbl on the same day. We are confident that gas at $30/gallon will cause the Fed Chief Execution Officer to evaluate his conclusion that his brilliant monetary policy is not causing the single biggest asset bubble in US history. Last and not least, total US Federal debt on that day will be about $14.5 trillion, and when adding all the off-balance sheet items, should hit about $120 trillion. We have less than a year before total Alice In Wonderland oblivion. Oh, and since the latest episode of market melt up began, the SPY is trading as a 4x leveraged ETF on the XLF. Ignore that this statement makes no sense. Just buy. Buy everything. Then repo it to the Fed, they are particularly receptive to used single ply toilet paper, and then buy on repo margin. Insanity is here.
[ www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/SPY%204x.jpg]  Tyler summarizes it best: Just buy! Buy everything!And buy it from Canada. Our exporters are going nuts with the USD/CAD now below 1. Ah for those good old days in 2002 when 1 CAD was but 65 cents US. If you're looking for a good laugh, read [ www.cnbc.com/id/36503380] Diana Olick's Contract Abrogation article. A sampler: Now we hear from none other than Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy that the government's tacit encouragement for "homeowners" to not pay their mortgage dues is freeing up $8 billion each month that is artificially increasing consumer spending and iPad preorders. And with banks not marking anything to market, all these houses that generate no cash flow are still marked at 100 cents on the books. If you ever needed a justification to not pay your credit card, your mortgage, or anyone else you owe money, now you know - contract law in America no longer exists. Just stop paying everything. Defaulting your way to success! There's green shoots!
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:17:31 GMT -5
djrickMessage #229 - 04/15/10 01:10 AM JOBLESS RECOVERY - OH BOY........
Virgil SyonidMessage #230 - 04/15/10 02:49 AMIt's Ben Bernanke in 2015. You can practically hear him think: "All I have now is Rex, my gear, and my Notebook. How can I make a bubble out of this?"
Virgil SyonidMessage #231 - 04/15/10 03:03 PM[ www.zerohedge.com/article/cesar-chavez-day-and-easter-second-week-fault-latest-initial-jobless-claims-disappointment] Cesar Chavez Day And Easter (For Second Week) At Fault For Latest Initial Jobless Claims Disappointment Jobless claims missed consensus for the second week in a row, [www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm] coming it at 484,000, 44k worse than expected, 24k worse than the week before, and the worst since February 20. Of course, the B(L)S has to provide a narrative for why the economy is not performing as expected by the propagandorium: and this week's explanation is hilarious. A Labor Department economist said Thursday that this latest rise can also be pegged to lag effects from the spring holidays including Easter and Cesar Chavez Day, which is celebrated in worker-heavy California, and blamed the increase on technical factors and not on rising layoffs. This is now the second week that Easter has gotten blamed for deteriorating economic data. Easter was also blamed for the delay in Greek bonds a few weeks ago (those particular investors now wish they had just slept in through the day they were getting their allocated share). As for initial claims, the four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data to help paint a better picture of the underlying trend, also rose for the week ended April 10. The Labor Department said the four-week moving average went up by 7,500 to 457,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 450,250. Continuing claims also increased by 73,000 to 4,639,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,566,000. And while Extended Benefits declined by 99,716, Emergency claims increased by 261,817 to 5.855 million. Just because you asked for it, djrick.
djrickMessage #232 - 04/15/10 06:30 PMnull
Virgil SyonidMessage #233 - 04/21/10 06:28 PMLet's hope you're not long YUM. If you are, move those investment dollars to the salt wholesalers. From the Daily Capitalist: [ dailycapitalist.com/2010/04/20/salt-is-a-class-i-drug/] Salt is Now a Class I Drug The Food and Drug Administration is planning an unprecedented effort to gradually reduce the salt consumed each day by Americans, saying that less sodium in everything from soup to nuts would prevent thousands of deaths from hypertension and heart disease. The initiative, to be launched this year, would eventually lead to the first legal limits on the amount of salt allowed in food products.
A recent study by researchers at Columbia and Stanford universities and the University of California at San Francisco found that cutting salt intake by 3 grams a day could prevent tens of thousands of heart attacks, strokes and cases of heart disease.
"We can·t just rely on the individual to do something," said Cheryl Anderson, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who served on the Institute of Medicine committee. "Food manufacturers have to reduce the amount of sodium in foods." I shudder to think how long it will be before Ms. Cheryl Anderson declares "We can·t just rely on the individual to do something," regarding... *ahem*... certain other health measures. As a Canadian, I submit the following to my American brethren with the utmost respect: You ain't seen nothin' yet.
outaheresoonMessage #234 - 04/21/10 07:29 PMAs a Canadian, I submit the following to my American brethren with the utmost respect: You ain't seen nothin' yet.
So right you are...why do you think that I am now an expat? Virgil, I just got done watching "Collapse" the movie. The producer's argument is based on the premise that a fiat currency system requires an ever expanding economy and his belief that the expansion curve has now intercepted the peak oil curve. Have you done any research on peak oil? There is a lot of disinformation out there to weed through.
neohguyMessage #235 - 04/21/10 07:42 PMnull
outaheresoonMessage #236 - 04/21/10 07:43 PMThanks, Neo.
Virgil SyonidMessage #237 - 04/21/10 07:55 PMHave you done any research on peak oil? I know all too well. My father is an ex oil exec. The reason they're tearing up the oil sands in northern Alberta is because 'conventional' oil and gas sources ran dry quite a while ago. Even as recently as two decades ago, going after the bitumen in the tar sands wouldn't have passed the cost-benefit stage. How things have changed since then. Although... not sure what this has to do with the nanny state article off Daily Capitalist.
outaheresoonMessage #238 - 04/21/10 08:30 PMAlthough... not sure what this has to do with the nanny state article off Daily Capitalist.
Nothing at all! I just got done watching the movie when I read your post and knew that I could get your attention. After all, your opinion is one of the few I trust on this board.
Falling Sky - NotMessage #239 - 04/21/10 10:39 PMAs a Canadian, I submit the following to my American brethren with the utmost respect: You ain't seen nothin' yet.
I'll just sneak across the border to get my salt fix - Might even consider smuggling Salt back to the states - should be highly profitable. Who needs oil after the great salt ban takes effect?
Falling Sky - NotMessage #240 - 04/21/10 10:42 PMAfter all, your opinion is one of the few I trust on this board. You do we are all in the room right? We do have feelings too you know!
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:18:23 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #241 - 04/28/10 01:08 AM(Preemptive apologies for more doominess.) Now down to the week by week... [ www.zerohedge.com/article/us-treasury-pays-down-over-484-billion-bills-april-debt-roll-concerns-becomes-acute] US Treasury Pays Down Over $484 Billion In Bills In April Excerpt: Here is the primary risk of why frontloading the US Treasury with ultra-short holdings is just asking for a capital markets/liquidity/solvency/sovereign crisis. So far in April, the US Treasury has redeemed over $484 billion in Bills. That's nearly a half a trillion in mandatory cash outflows, interest payments aside. In April the cash out for interest expense will likely be one twentieth of this. What people don't realize is that the Treasury in April was down to just $9 billion in cash. Unless the UST can roll its debt not on a monthly but now weekly basis in greater and greater amounts, the interest rate doesn't matter. All it takes is one semi-failed auction and it's game over as hundreds of billions in bills become payable.
When one adds the redemptions on non-Bill Treasuries, and we get well over half a trillion in redemptions in April alone. This is better known as a house of cards, balancing on an upside down ladder, located in a puddle of extra slippery oil.
Roll issue aside, the UST issued a net $113 billion in debt in April, coupled with a gross cash burn of 27 billion for a net cash outflow in the month of $140 billion. Add the $120 billion or so in coupons in the last week of April (which likely won't settle until May), and the UST will have a $260 billion in cash burn in April. (Bold by me.) "House of cards on a latter in oil" is a fair characterization. Close to half a trillion dollars in debt rolling over each month. If anything (and I mean anything) lures money out of US Treasuries, even for a few weeks, we're looking at one world-class, world-encompassing disaster. (You'll forgive the obvious doominess of this statement. If you can read the above article and get anything green-shootier out of it than I did, I very much welcome the bit of sunshine.) Is it any wonder the banks are throwing the kitchen sink at gold? Or why the 'mysterious' direct bid (now rising in even the 2-year notes) isn't even a footnote in the news? This plays into the article I posted in #218 and #227. I have no doubts: if Turbo Timmy needs a stock market crash to fill a shortfall in the $0.5 trillion per month freight train, he will get it.
djrickMessage #242 - 04/28/10 01:33 AM thanks Virgil for post 241, I have purposely pulled back from following the markets too closely, guess it is fatigue and I decided we would definitely see no corrective downturn before 4/15 either. Everyone should really read and reread what Virgil put in bold, my eyes are still bugged out, I've known it is coming but still, just WOW.
neohguyMessage #243 - 04/28/10 11:04 AMI read the article yesterday. Awhile back there was an article that described the scenario of boosting treasury sales by allowing any of the major markets to fall. I've been watching Central banks purchasing gold. I don't think they are buying it to use in case of a currency failure. I think they are doing it to protect their currency. Kind of like the buying/ confiscation in the early 30's. CNBC has been running an advertisement for buying gold. The company claims it is for the US government.
DuffminsterMessage #244 - 04/28/10 08:16 PMHi Virgil, Good to be back at Green shoots Acres.... sorry corner. Its the place to be. Here is really good Green-shoots Piece. Personally, with QE to infinity, stocks are probably going to go up. Its just a question of whether they'll go up faster than the dollar goes down. Probably in the short term. The Fed's/PPT strategy seems to have the primaries pickup the debt along with the directs and then immediately repo the treasuries and buy index futures in the equities markets and they probably have some target, 250000 Dow? I don't know. Stealth QE is at full throttle in my opinion. Look at the drivers of the market and look at how expensive the market is in historical terms. Here is the Green Shoots article for the day (It was on the Front Page of MY AOL this morning): Note: Only the last sentence hints at market sanity. [ 247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F] Americans Regain Their Faith In Stock MarketThe DJIA fell from over 14,000 in October 2007 to under 6,600 in March 2009. It was a historic drop that left many Americans without savings or retirement funds and drove many of them completely out of the market. The market has recovered enough that it is over 11,200 and gains ground nearly every week. Some people have gained back a [247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F#] good deal of their investments. That has not helped the value of their homes and the 11 million people with underwater mortgages, but it has brought millions back from the despair of having nothing financially. [www.gallup.com/poll/127529/Americans-Faith-Stocks-Best-Investment-Partly-Restored.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Business+-+Economy+-+Investors] A new Gallup poll shows that many Americans have regained their faith in the market. The research shows that ·The 22% of Americans who now say stocks or mutual funds constitute the best [247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F#] long-term investment is up from 15% a year ago.· That number is still relatively low. Oddly enough many people still think that real estate is a better long-term investment than stocks. That would seem counterintuitive based on the sharp drop in real estate and the low likelihood that it will recover any times soon.
The renewed faith in the markets is actually relatively isolated to the more wealthy. That is not terribly surprising because most equities are helped by people with high incomes. They have seen their investment slide and then recover. Many people with incomes below $30,000 never held stocks at all, so their suspicions of the markets may be based more on what they read and have heard rather than their own [247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F#] investments. The divide in stock market perceptions is also based, in large part, on levels of education. Those with a positive attitude toward equities tend to be college graduates.
Institutions have already returned to the markets. For the last year, it has given them good return especially investments in magacap tech and [247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F#] bank stocks and funds that simply play the indexes.
The well-to-do investors have decided to follow the ·smart money· back into the market. That may be happening just before the market tops, as it often does.
Virgil SyonidMessage #245 - 04/28/10 09:41 PMI've been watching Central banks purchasing gold. I don't think they are buying it to use in case of a currency failure. I think they are doing it to protect their currency. Agreed. Sure, it's a yellow rock with atomic number 79. But what else is there? Paper hurled out of helicopters by the greediest and most corrupt creatures in the known universe? Sans auditing, sans accountability, and sans reason. At a time when currency debasement and ZIRP are the name of the game. I'll take my 79 protons for 'safe' funds, thank you. Stocks for the rest, because Dow 36,000 isn't far off. What's that, Uncle Sam? The CPI came in at -28% again? Hurrah! Who cares if that flies in the face of all observable reality. Let's hold interest rates at zero and gas up the Sikorski. Look at the drivers of the market and look at how expensive the market is in historical terms. Even the rosiest forward multiples are twice the 15 norm. The current multiples are a joke. If I'd held on to IMAX for another week, I might have won rovo's stock pick contest riding a stock with a P/E of 235. Funny, if it weren't so pathetic. The 22% of Americans who now say stocks or mutual funds constitute the best [247wallst.com/2010/04/27/americans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market/?icid=main|htmlws-sb-n|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2F2010%2F04%2F27%2Famericans-regain-their-faith-in-stock-market%2F#] long-term investment is up from 15% a year ago. Maybe they're right. What else is there? Muni bonds? Paper gold? The Yen? The Euro? (I'm sensing a pattern here.)
outaheresoonMessage #246 - 04/28/10 10:32 PMWell, my strategy is to buy beachfront freal estate in a stable, sub-tropical country where I want to live, grow vegetables, and go fishing in my kayak in my spare time. Everything gets paid for in cash and everything left over goes into beer, ammunition and silver.
djrickMessage #247 - 04/28/10 11:31 PMSo, I ask you: what has over a year of zero interest rates done for Main Street? The answer is: nothing. Financial institutions are the only group that has benefited from the negative real rate, and that was by design. The Fed and the Summers team are treating this crisis like just another recession, but it isn't. The pump will not prime--regardless of how much money they put out there--until the household and banking sectors have repaired their balance sheets. The best course of action is jobs. How's that going, Mr. President?
djrickMessage #248 - 04/28/10 11:34 PMWith millions of people losing their unemployment this summer, they have to convince us things are better NOW. If their sales job on the US public doesn't work the people will raise he&&. They have not destroyed anywhere near enough private debt to provide a foundation for growth and they know it.
Virgil SyonidMessage #249 - 04/29/10 01:03 AMThe best course of action is jobs. How's that going, Mr. President?
I hear the holding companies (it's an injustice to call them 'banks' anymore, given their role has changed from lending to playing in a speculative fantasyland) are hiring 'risk assessment specialists'.
frank the impalerMessage #250 - 04/29/10 01:07 AMLook at capex for the last four months and tell me what happens after that?
Virgil SyonidMessage #251 - 04/29/10 01:09 AMLook at capex for the last four months and tell me what happens after that? I know, I know. Dow to a million.
frank the impalerMessage #252 - 04/29/10 01:12 AMNot Dow a million silly man but with capital expenditures nearly four to five times historic levels...were bound to see some huge hiring increases
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:19:16 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #253 - 04/29/10 02:16 AMwere bound to see some huge hiring increases I thought you were talking about Treasury capex. (I don't know if they call it that. 'Cash burn', maybe. I guess they're not really acquiring anything for their trouble.) Maybe companies are just spending money hand over fist on the new warehouses they need to store all of the products nobody is buying. I submit that the only reason the megacorps have cash to burn is because they've fired a third of their payroll. But suppose job losses turn on their head and we see 500,000 jobs gained per month all the way through 2010 and 2011. It will take until 2012 until we're back at pre-meltdown employment levels, which you'll recall was still a period of record deficits. Incidentally, where do you get your 'four to five times' figure from? I just got through reading an evisceration of a 'California is A-OK' article at ZH. I'm beginning to realize that every number must be properly vetted.
Falling Sky - NotMessage #255 - 04/29/10 12:30 PMWas I having a bad dream this morning because I thought I heard Cramer come on TV and state that there would be -- A Housing Shortage By The End of The Year!!!
neohguyMessage #256 - 04/29/10 12:37 PMWas I having a bad dream this morning because I thought I heard Cramer come on TV and state that there would be -- A Housing Shortage By The End of The Year!!! seekingalpha.com/article/198622-cramer-s-mad-money-6-months-to-prosperity-4-13-10 ...The dramatic moves in housing-related stocks, from Sherwin Williams ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/shw] SHW) to Fortune Brands ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/fo] FO) to Whirlpool ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/whr] WHR) indicate a recovery for the sector and with housing starts at very low rates, Cramer thinks a housing shortage rather than a surplus, is on the cards. JP Morgan "not a bunch of jokers," predicted a housing shortage by 2011; Cramer would buy timber and land companies, especially Plum Creek ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/pcl] PCL) and Weyerhaeuser ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/wy] WY) as well as Standard Pacific, "that little housing spec that I gave you last week."...
reverendbarbMessage #257 - 04/29/10 02:13 PMIs Cramer someone we should listen to??
Falling Sky - NotMessage #258 - 04/29/10 02:22 PMWhat happened to all the foreclosed properties? Something just doesn't sound right to me!
djrickMessage #259 - 04/29/10 02:40 PMU6 at 20% is getting much closer. Economic realignment and investment in productive adventures is not happening. And if it was, not nearly fast enough with the sense of urgency that if we don't act fast enough, collapse becomes probable.
djrickMessage #260 - 04/29/10 02:41 PMU6 graph linky--> [ portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp] Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
neohguyMessage #261 - 04/29/10 02:57 PMWhat happened to all the foreclosed properties? Something just doesn't sound right to me! He's talking about brand new homes that were not previously owned. That inventory is much less than existing homes. I don't think there will be a huge surge though.
Virgil SyonidMessage #262 - 04/30/10 11:59 PMTo all who read my doominess in #241, I apologize. My cheerful cadence and lack of JustPreferred-esque WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!! monologues may have led you to believe in something slightly less than world record doominess. I stand sorely corrected in the $484 billion figure. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-redeems-gargantuan-643-billion-treasuries-april] Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April Excerpt: A week ago we were practically speechless when we showed that the Treasury had redeemed nearly $494 billion in Bills in April. A truly stunning number and an indication of just how much cash the Treasury needs to have access to to keep rolling its ridiculously short average maturity debt load. Today we stand even more speechless: according to today's DTS, the Treasury has now redeemed $596 billion in Bills in Aprils: an all time world record, even when accounting for the Fed's steroid abuse period of SFP 1 (we are currently in the second iteration). Add $47 billion in Notes and there are almost $650 billion in redemptions. This number is simply ridiculous. Forget the interest expense: this ever increasing roll is the number one danger to the US and world economy. Should the Treasury be unable to keep issuing shorter and shorter dated debt (and it already is skirting away from even the belly of the curve), it is for all intents and purposes game over. Bold by me. As penance for my former optimism, I will short one of the Dow stocks for rovo's Stock Pick game. My name will stand shamefully beside a -238.16% figure as the Dow hits 36,000 by mid-May. People will point and throw tomatoes.
Virgil SyonidMessage #263 - 05/01/10 12:03 AMIs Cramer someone we should listen to? He's a shill for GS. Nothing more, nothing less. If your interests correlate with theirs, he's the fellow you should listen to.
ComoKateMessage #264 - 05/01/10 02:46 AMThe dramatic moves in housing-related stocks, from Sherwin Williams ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/shw] SHW) to Fortune Brands ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/fo] FO) to Whirlpool ([seekingalpha.com/symbol/whr] WHR) indicate a recovery for the sector ... Not necessarily. More people are staying where they are whether it's by choice or by necessity. Staying put means you eventually have to paint the walls again, purchase replacement appliances for those that wear out, etc. Plumbers and electricians are exceptionally busy here in the Twin Cities and I've been told it's due to people repairing what they already own.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:20:08 GMT -5
neohguyMessage #265 - 05/01/10 10:10 PMNot necessarily. More people are staying where they are whether it's by choice or by necessity. Staying put means you eventually have to paint the walls again, purchase replacement appliances for those that wear out, etc. Plumbers and electricians are exceptionally busy here in the Twin Cities and I've been told it's due to people repairing what they already own. Similar situation with manufacturing construction. We are seeing some tax payer subsidized construction for schools and other buildings. Some of the hospitals are adding wings etc but they just add it to your bill. The current decade long projection of existing housing inventory will prove to be wrong imo. I've been through over a dozen foreclosed properties looking for a bargain. After one winter the structure is suffering and after two winters they are pretty much unsalvageable. Ohio, and some of its bigger cities, are demolishing entire blocks of distressed homes and apartment buildings that have been abandoned. They send a letter to the bank of record ordering them to secure (board up) and maintain the yards. If they don't then they demolish it. I wonder if the banks are still valuing a vacant lot as full collateral?
High Net WorthMessage #266 - 05/01/10 10:24 PMI wonder if the the banks are still valuing a vacant lot as full collateral? Of course they are. Then they will sell it at full price to the government, US Taxpayers as a MBS Mortage Backed Security. Gotta love those toxic assets.
frank qMessage #267 - 05/01/10 11:38 PMneo, We had our full board meeting this week and the news on construction is not good. Our biggest contractors have stated that architects are seeing their lowest level of activity of the current downturn. In addition, we have seen very few calls for people although we are seeing a little new home construction. The problem is, if plans are not being commissioned, construction will not happen. A major problem here is that the state is not funneling down promised money to municipalities to break ground on projects that have already been approved. Currently, we see no improvement in total construction until 2012. While other areas of the trades such as service are doing well, construction continues to be in a depression. Construction will be the last sector to see recovery. In addition, even though the big homebuilders are doing better as far as their financials, I believe it is more a fuction of the fact that they are using the economy to beat up on their subs, thereby raising their own profit margins on what little they are buying. There is also a lot of big national builders moving in and buying out the small individual builders or squeezing them out all together. They are positioning themselves for a recovery, but it's not here yet. And because they are pressuring their subs, and I'm talking 10-20% cuts, the only people who will get hurt are the workers, and by extension, everybody who depends on those dollars getting spent.
kman49Message #268 - 05/02/10 12:51 PMThey are positioning themselves for a recovery Buffett, purchased 10% of a Cali real estate company last year for close to 800 mil. I did work for a woman that was one of the partners. Huge company 800+ agents. Follow the money and the next boom location will be reveled.
Falling Sky - NotMessage #269 - 05/02/10 02:02 PMBuffett, purchased 10% of a Cali real estate company last year for close to 800 mil. I did work for a woman that was one of the partners. Huge company 800+ agents. Follow the money and the next boom location will be reveled Buffett has been defending GS lately - It seems he is in bed with them. Yes follow the money but whose pocket will it end up in?
Virgil SyonidMessage #270 - 05/10/10 05:08 PMAs usual, it's ZH running an article by Garzarelli with numbers and an accurate description of how big this bailout-to-infinity madness is getting. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/summary-biggest-bail-out-ever-even-keynes-spinning-his-grave] Summary Of The Biggest Bail Out Ever Excerpt (Bold by him.) :Europe has now followed the Fed in its all in move to prevent the disintegration of the euro and of Europe. As we expected, the EU was leaking various rumors to gauge market interest, and as speculated earlier, the final cost ended up being just short of one trillion. Here are the key summaries.
[preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-10/eu-ministers-craft-928-billion-show-of-force-to-halt-crisis-buoy-euro.html] EU Crafts $962 billion show of force to halt crisis[www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100509a.htm]
Full blown monetization: ECB will buy public and private bonds
Fed reactivates swap lines with Bank of Canada, BOE, ECB, BOJ, and the SNB
In other words, total and unprecedented monetary lunacy, as every cental bank, under the orchestration of the Federal Reserve, will throw money at the problem until it goes away, which it won't. As we have long expected, Bernanke is now willing to sacrifice the dollar at any cost to prevent the euro unwind. This is nothing than a very short-term fix, whose half life will be shorter still than all previous ones.
The race to the currency devaluation bottom is now in its final lap. And gold is the only alternative to the now imminent collapse of the fiat system: the world had a chance to take writedowns on losses, punish those who took risk and failed, and refused to do so. There is now no risk left, but it only means that eventually all the risk will come back and lead all capital markets to zero. The result will be the end of Keynesian economics as we know it. Do not trade in this broken market, do not hold your money in a bank as they are all now one hour away from a terminal bank run - buy and hold real, FASB mark-to-myth independent assets. All those green shoots were getting to be a pretty ugly shade of brown. What better way to put the green in your shoots than to kick the can down the road another six months with Bailout 3.0, again sponsored by FedCo. If you don't have real money by this point: get some. It's shiny, yellow, and oh-so-unprintable.
DuffminsterMessage #271 - 05/10/10 06:20 PMIn other words, total and unprecedented monetary lunacy, as every cental bank, under the orchestration of the Federal Reserve, will throw money at the problem until it goes away, which it won't. As we have long expected, Bernanke is now willing to sacrifice the dollar at any cost to prevent the euro unwind. This is nothing than a very short-term fix, whose half life will be shorter still than all previous ones. Virgil, the unfortunate truth is short of global default, there is no other solution. The idiots who took us off the Gold Standard and then decided to spend like there was no tomorrow to keep pumping up the military industrial complex, Wall Street and whatever else needed pumping, have so greately indebted the world that we are faced with two choices and neither of them any good: 1. Devalue 2. Default Devalue buys time and then perhaps the same idiots who put us in this situation might be able to actually put some long term sustainable solutions in place to ensure SUSTAINABLE economics and Stability in the Global Financial and Economic and Social Systems. As an investor, I'm positioning for long term QE, and population growth based resource shortages. All in all, growing inflation leading to likely hyper inflation and stagflation.
Virgil SyonidMessage #272 - 05/10/10 06:38 PMAs an investor, I'm positioning for long term QE, and population growth based resource shortages. I'm about the same, Duff.
marshallcrazyMessage #273 - 05/10/10 06:50 PMWhat we need are some good wars. Let's start with a civil war in each country, including here. Then, we need to have X number of countries fighting each other at the same time; Portugal against Spain, Ireland against Italy, Greece against Poland, etc. BUT, NO nuclear warheads, or modernized industrial machinery or weapons...........that would be way too fast and easy. No, what we need is horseback cavalry, flint lock pistols and rifles, wooden boats, and swords, and 19th century uniforms. Just think of the economic uptick for horse breeding, the steel industry, manufacturing, the timber industry, and healthcare!! We've got re-tool everything, refit plants, grow plenty of hay and grains for the horses, etc. Be great for the world economies.......and population control................ 
DriftrMessage #274 - 05/10/10 07:01 PMThere are already too many logging shows on TV IMO.
marshallcrazyMessage #275 - 05/10/10 07:12 PMDriftr, you're right. But, you've given me another good idea. Maybe we can film all of the death and carnage, and have world wide reality shows! Film crews off limits, they can be outfitted in the most modern of body armor. Hey here's another idea; why don't all of the governments world wide forgive every single citizen's personal debts at this time; mortgages, credit cards, etc and then take that total amount off of the banks and mortgage companies balance sheets. Wipe it out and add it to the tab of the governments bailing out each other. If you did that, jumped the income tax rate to 60-70%, instituted national sales taxes for those countries that don't have them, can you imagine the tax revenue bounce and consumer spending bounce we'd get? Every 6 months to a year when delinquencies began to reappear on credit cards and new home equity lines of credit, we could do it all over again. This could go on forever.
Virgil SyonidMessage #276 - 05/10/10 07:14 PMand population control As many on MT may know, 'population control' is something that I keep a very close eye on. The UN has proposed several population control mandates as part of their agenda for the 21st century, and they are not pleasant well-meaning initiatives. A good topic to discuss, but unfortunately not market-related enough.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:21:01 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #277 - 05/10/10 09:29 PMThe Eurozone bailout aptly explained: 
djrickMessage #278 - 05/11/10 01:44 AMkunstler.com/blog/2010/05/and-chicks-for-free.html<snip> The question begging itself here, of course, is how Europe intends to come up with roughly a trillion in bail-out money. Sell Portugal to China? Cut Greece up into bait and catch whatever fish are left in the Mediterranean Sea? Frankly, I'm stumped. Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul.... All the European nations are already so hopelessly enmeshed in chains of unfulfillable counter-party obligations that the bail-out might as well be a game of musical chairs played in the Large Hadron Particle Collider, set to the tunes of Karlheinz Stockhausen.
Virgil SyonidMessage #279 - 05/11/10 04:35 AMFrom kunstler.com: I predict that the effect of the announcement will last all of one trading day on the stock markets. ...and I predict that the effect of the announcement will last all of one day on the Euro. Oh look, it did. Likewise, if major currencies such as the Euro and the dollar blow up, they're much more likely to be replaced by more local bank-notes backed by gold than by some hypothetical Amero or Globo-buck. I wouldn't be so sure about that, Kunstler. I can hear the soundbite now: "In order to ensure continued global prosperity, sustainable growth, and economic stability, the world must [insert doublespeak for 'adopt a global currency' here], one that will be carefully managed by a multinational body accountable to all the peoples of the world."
ComoKateMessage #280 - 05/11/10 04:44 AM"In order to ensure continued global prosperity, sustainable growth, and economic stability, the world must [insert doublespeak for 'adopt a global currency' here], one that will be carefully managed by a multinational body accountable to all the peoples of the world." Wait !! That sounds like a job for: 
The ·growing interdependence· that so impressed the founders of the Trilateral Commission in the early 1970s has deepened into ·globalization.· That interdependence also has ensured that the current financial crisis has been felt in every nation and region. It has fundamentally shaken confidence in the international system as a whole. The Commission sees in these unprecedented events a stronger need for shared thinking and leadership by the Trilateral countries, who (along with the principal international organizations) have been the primary anchors of the wider international system. Doubts about whether and how this primacy will change do not diminish, and, if anything, have intensified the need to take into account the dramatic transformation of the international system. As relations with other countries become more mature·and power more diffuse·the leadership tasks of the original Trilateral countries need to be carried out with others to an increasing extent. www.trilateral.org/about.htm
Virgil SyonidMessage #281 - 05/11/10 05:00 AMNow, Como. We mustn't muddy the water with talks of Trilateral Commissions, globalization and other such nonsense. Is the trilateral.org site for real? It must be--only genuine globalist propaganda (and sometimes literature put out by US economic policymakers) can make my ears bleed like that.
djrickMessage #282 - 05/11/10 03:53 PMAudit the Fed being debated now: www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN2.aspx
djrickMessage #283 - 05/11/10 03:57 PMits watered down! bit.ly/az8HNV"The new Sanders amendment would provide the administration, the Fed, and Members of Congress with a certain level of cover, allowing them to claim that they had supported auditing the Fed, while at the same time allowing the Fed to continue most of its operations in secret, beyond the scrutiny of Congress and the public. The effort to push the Sanders amendment through on a rush vote on May 6 failed thanks to the efforts of Senator David Vitter (R-La.), a fierce Fed critic, who insisted on a side-by-side vote of the Sanders sellout amendment with the original audit amendment."
djrickMessage #284 - 05/11/10 05:16 PMReason for the jump? U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 2nd Session as compiled through Senate LIS by the Senate Bill Clerk under the direction of the Secretary of the Senate Vote Summary Question: On the Amendment (Vitter Amdt. No. 3760 ) Vote Number: 138 Vote Date: May 11, 2010, 12:05 PM Required For Majority: 1/2 Vote Result: Amendment Rejected Amendment Number: S.Amdt. 3760 to S.Amdt. 3739 to S. 3217 (Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010) Statement of Purpose: To address availability of information concerning the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, and for other purposes. Vote Counts: YEAs 37 NAYs 62 Not Voting 1 Vote Summary By Senator Name By Vote Position By Home State Alphabetical by Senator NameAkaka (D-HI), Nay Alexander (R-TN), Nay Barrasso (R-WY), Yea Baucus (D-MT), Nay Bayh (D-IN), Nay Begich (D-AK), Nay Bennet (D-CO), Nay Bennett (R-UT), Nay Bingaman (D-NM), Nay Bond (R-MO), Nay Boxer (D-CA), Nay Brown (D-OH), Nay Brown (R-MA), Nay Brownback (R-KS), Yea Bunning (R-KY), Yea Burr (R-NC), Yea Burris (D-IL), Nay Byrd (D-WV), Not Voting Cantwell (D-WA), Yea Cardin (D-MD), Nay Carper (D-DE), Nay Casey (D-PA), Nay Chambliss (R-GA), Yea Coburn (R-OK), Yea Cochran (R-MS), Yea Collins (R-ME), Yea Conrad (D-ND), Nay Corker (R-TN), Nay Cornyn (R-TX), Yea Crapo (R-ID), Yea DeMint (R-SC), Yea Dodd (D-CT), Nay Dorgan (D-ND), Yea Durbin (D-IL), Nay Ensign (R-NV), Yea Enzi (R-WY), Yea Feingold (D-WI), Yea Feinstein (D-CA), Nay Franken (D-MN), Nay Gillibrand (D-NY), Nay Graham (R-SC), Yea Grassley (R-IA), Yea Gregg (R-NH), Nay Hagan (D-NC), Nay Harkin (D-IA), Nay Hatch (R-UT), Yea Hutchison (R-TX), Yea Inhofe (R-OK), Yea Inouye (D-HI), Nay Isakson (R-GA), Yea Johanns (R-NE), Nay Johnson (D-SD), Nay Kaufman (D-DE), Nay Kerry (D-MA), Nay Klobuchar (D-MN), Nay Kohl (D-WI), Nay Kyl (R-AZ), Nay Landrieu (D-LA), Nay Lautenberg (D-NJ), Nay Leahy (D-VT), Nay LeMieux (R-FL), Yea Levin (D-MI), Nay Lieberman (ID-CT), Nay Lincoln (D-AR), Yea Lugar (R-IN), Nay McCain (R-AZ), Yea McCaskill (D-MO), Nay McConnell (R-KY), Nay Menendez (D-NJ), Nay Merkley (D-OR), Nay Mikulski (D-MD), Nay Murkowski (R-AK), Yea Murray (D-WA), Nay Nelson (D-FL), Nay Nelson (D-NE), Nay Pryor (D-AR), Nay Reed (D-RI), Nay Reid (D-NV), Nay Risch (R-ID), Yea Roberts (R-KS), Yea Rockefeller (D-WV), Nay Sanders (I-VT), Yea Schumer (D-NY), Nay Sessions (R-AL), Yea Shaheen (D-NH), Nay Shelby (R-AL), Yea Snowe (R-ME), Yea Specter (D-PA), Nay Stabenow (D-MI), Nay Tester (D-MT), Nay Thune (R-SD), Yea Udall (D-CO), Nay Udall (D-NM), Nay Vitter (R-LA), Yea Voinovich (R-OH), Nay Warner (D-VA), Nay Webb (D-VA), Yea Whitehouse (D-RI), Nay Wicker (R-MS), Yea Wyden (D-OR), Yea
Virgil SyonidMessage #285 - 05/11/10 05:23 PMThanks for keeping us updated. Other posters, please take note of whether your congressperson is representing you (or not, I imagine) on this matter. Vote accordingly.
DriftrMessage #286 - 05/11/10 05:31 PMGlad I live in TX today. I'd also like to contribute to the green shoots theme of this thread by sharing that my 6 year old daughter and I are wiping the floor with my wife and 3 year old daughter in our respective gardens. 'Ours' now has 4 green bean and 2 snap pea green shoots. 'Theirs' has nothing. zilch. nada. They went for watermelon and cucumber. Off to the local Ace this Saturday to see if they have any rebar/twine that I can string across this weekend. A couple of the shoots are growing really fast. I really hope I don't have to go to Home Depot although if I do, I'll probably pick up some raspberry & blueberry bushes.
djrickMessage #287 - 05/11/10 05:39 PMFrom the NY Times: [ www.nytimes.com/2010/05/12/business/12regulate.html] Senate Backs One-Time Audit of Fed’s Bailout Role The Senate on Tuesday voted unanimously to require a one-time audit of the Federal Reserve·s emergency actions during and after the 2008 financial crisis as part of broad legislation overhauling the nation·s financial regulatory system. The full fed audit did not pass, this one is a cop out compromise. Now you know why the stock market was down this morning, but up now - another warning shot. [ www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/columbia-space-shuttle-investigation.html] Washington's Blog The government spent $175 million investigating the Challenger space shuttle disaster. It spent $152 million on the the Columbia disaster investigation. It spent $30 million investigating the Monica Lewinsky scandal. The government only authorized $15 million for the 9/11 Commission. And how much has the government authorized for the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission? You know, the commission charged with getting to the bottom of what caused the financial crisis? Just $8 million.
djrickMessage #288 - 05/11/10 05:40 PM Just $8 million. In other words, less than 1/3 of what GS made on their worst trading day of the quarter.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:21:53 GMT -5
BiMetalAUPTMessage #289 - 05/11/10 05:47 PMDuff, As I recall from my study for the MBA , the USA was the last major nation to leave the Gold Standard. In fact we had a bi-metal standard with silver also used for coins. The events were interesting as the USA held all the gold and Europe ran out of gold. The UST earned a payback from the Federal Reserve for Rent of the interest Free paper you hold in you hand. Just a thought, Bruce ( Bi Metal Au Pt)
midwesterner123Message #290 - 05/11/10 05:54 PMVirgil, the unfortunate truth is short of global default, there is no other solution. The idiots who took us off the Gold Standard and then decided to spend like there was no tomorrow to keep pumping up the military industrial complex, Wall Street and whatever else needed pumping, have so greately indebted the world that we are faced with two choices and neither of them any good:
1. Devalue
2. Default
Devalue buys time and then perhaps the same idiots who put us in this situation might be able to actually put some long term sustainable solutions in place to ensure SUSTAINABLE economics and Stability in the Global Financial and Economic and Social Systems.
As an investor, I'm positioning for long term QE, and population growth based resource shortages. All in all, growing inflation leading to likely hyper inflation and stagflation.
Hi Duff, I've read your posts for a long time and really value your opinion. I know what's going on and very aware of many of the problems. I have some investments I feel are worthy, but in such uncertain times, it's really hard to know outside of metals what's a sure bet. As you explained in another post, ETF funds like SLV and GLD are not a sure thing because of JPM influence. I think first off the big question we are don't know is where is all this headed exactly, and how bad is it going to get? I would say depending on the scenario, it would vary on where to put most your investments. You say resource shortages, can you explain more? I've heard of this a little myself, but more specifically what would you invest in? Is there any safer ETF funds with metals, and mining stocks that have less global exposure and more regional. Morally I can't invest in oil, so what else is there that you happen to personally like? I love physical metal, but want to expand outside of this more than I am or into stocks that are more sound.
Virgil SyonidMessage #291 - 05/11/10 07:29 PM And how much has the government authorized for the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission? You know, the commission charged with getting to the bottom of what caused the financial crisis? Just $8 million.
In fairness, they could have dumped the Tsunami thread into a .PDF and handed it to the US Congress. Twice as effective as the FCIC at a cost of $0 plus S&H.
ComoKateMessage #292 - 05/11/10 08:06 PMIs the trilateral.org site for real? Unfortunately, yes.
Virgil SyonidMessage #293 - 05/12/10 07:28 PMJust so nobody forgets during today's market euphoria. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/us-more-bankrupt-ever-83-billion-april-deficit-record-month-30-billion-worse-expected-tax-re] US More Bankrupt Than Ever - $83 Billion April Deficit Is Record For The Month, $30 Billion Worse Than Expected As Tax Receipts Plunge Excerpt (Bold by Him):Well, if nothing else, we now know officially just how great those tax receipts were. , and yes. We were right. April's tax deficit of $83 billion was the highest April deficit on record. America is now more bankrupt than ever. Income was $245.3 billion, 8% below the total recorded last April. Spending was $328.0 billion, up 14% year-over-year. A year ago in April the deficit was $20.9 billion. And here is the data: tax receipts down 7.9% YoY, Individual Income Tax down 21.5% YoY, and more importantly, spending: Total spending up 14.2%, National defense up 17%, Medicare up 39.4%, Social Security up 4.2% and General Government up 5.6%. At least interest payments were down 9.5%.
And now back to your regularly scheduled bankrupt country market melt up. Why is this a green shoot? Simple. The BLS needs some pretty clever number doctoring to claim unemployment is 'steady to falling' when income tax receipts have tanked 21.5% since the "worst part of the recession" last year. That means economists schooled in the arcane arts of deception will soon be in greater demand than ever. And what isn't to like about national defense up 17%? Those depleted uranium heat-seeking steel-jacketed flesh-eating piranha bullets won't engineer themselves. (This may not come as a surprise--or even matter--to many Americans, but step outside your borders and it's official: 100% of the rest of the world [minus Israel, maybe] considers the US military to be completely and utterly insane.) I suppose a 17% increase in military spending during the depth of the Great Recession, in the midst of complete bankruptcy, by the Nobel Peace Prize -winning President makes a bit more sense in light of that fact.  More wars! Less facts. Goodbye, income tax. Green shoots acres here we come.
Virgil SyonidMessage #294 - 05/12/10 07:30 PMAlso, be sure to check out wordsofreason's related observations [ moneycentral.msn.com/community/message/thread.asp?board=MarketTalkwithJimJubak&threadid=1754697&boardname=Hide&header=SearchOnly&footer=Show&linktarget=_parent&pagestyle=money1] here.
outaheresoonMessage #295 - 05/12/10 07:44 PMMore wars! Less facts. Goodbye, income tax. Green shoots acres here we come Ah yes, but we have a printing press and no oversight. It doesn't get much better than that.
DuffminsterMessage #296 - 05/13/10 05:18 AMVirgil, I don't know why this would be a Green Shoot for you: The BLS needs some pretty clever number doctoring to claim unemployment is 'steady to falling' when income tax receipts have tanked 21.5% since the "worst part of the recession" last year. That means economists schooled in the arcane arts of deception will soon be in greater demand than ever. After All GDP was skyrocketing during this period, right?
neohguyMessage #297 - 05/19/10 11:41 AMI read the article yesterday. Awhile back there was an article that described the scenario of boosting treasury sales by allowing any of the major markets to fall. Above from post 243. The German ban on naked short selling (might only be the first step for supporting government bonds) is a shot across the bow of world stock markets. Major governments are worried about servicing their debt. That debt can be serviced for a time by capturing money that is being invested (I'm using that term loosely) in the secondary stock market. Boomers have a lot of money tied up in retirement plans of all sorts that use stocks (speculating) as the primary asset in their portfolio. If I received a letter that offered me a fund that guaranteed 3-1/2 - 4% interest, with some inflation protection, in US treasuries then I would think hard about it for 1.2 seconds and reallocate my entire 401k into it. Throw in some tax incentives and millions of individuals and pension funds would do the same thing. The secondary stock market would tank (average joe would care less) and government debt gets serviced for a few decades. Two years from now, GS would announce that they made a profit every day for the past ten qtrs because they get a fee for "managing" those funds. About that time a popular new thread gets started on MT with the title "Why I think gold will be the best long term investment for the 22nd century".
Virgil SyonidMessage #298 - 05/25/10 07:58 PMThis is more frightening than it is disgusting. [ www.zerohedge.com/article/consumer-protection-bill-just-one-huge-governmental-subversion-privacy-ploy] Is The Consumer Protection Bill Just One Huge Governmental Subversion Of Privacy Ploy? Excerpt (bold by him): If anyone has been curious why the Fed, banks and politicians have all been pushing for the "consumer protection" portion of the Financial Regulation bill, it appears we may have the answer. As CNSNews.com reports, the bill "would create the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection and empower it to ·gather information and activities of persons operating in consumer financial markets,· including the names and addresses of account holders, ATM and other transaction records, and the amount of money kept in each customer·s account. The new bureaucracy is then allowed to ·use the data on branches and [individual and personal] deposit accounts · for any purpose· and may keep all records on file for at least three years and these can be made publicly available upon request." Goodbye privacy, hello 1984. I can't even think of a way to spin this into a green shoot. Enjoy your "protection".
Fred BuntzMessage #299 - 05/25/10 08:15 PMEnough about US already. Tell us all about the utopia of Canada.
Virgil SyonidMessage #300 - 05/25/10 08:44 PMTell us all about the utopia of Canada. [ money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=24354198] Home prices expected to drop, costs to rise (Bold by me): Canadian home ownership costs are rising and affordability is eroding, while overvalued house prices are due for a correction in the coming year or two, a pair of reports by banks said on Tuesday.
CIBC World Markets' new Home Ownership Affordability Index found home ownership was within reach for most Canadians but increasingly difficult for some. It also said about 17 percent of all dwellings in the country were above fair value.
"While the booming housing market is starting to come back to earth, the fact that prices are overvalued today does not necessarily mean that they will crash tomorrow," said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
He predicted that higher interest rates will lead to a modest decline in prices, probably between 5 and 10 percent, in the coming year or two.
The CIBC index considers demographics and mortgage type, in additional to the price of homes, interest rates and income.
"The vast majority of home owners in Canada, regardless of their age have not experienced any worsening in affordability despite the rapid increase in prices," said Tal, noting that the average size of a mortgage, which has risen 42 percent in six years to C$170,000, has not coincided with a significant worsening in affordability.
But CIBC found that families with household incomes of less than C$50,000 were spending close to 60 percent of gross income on mortgage payments, property taxes and electricity costs. Green shootey enough for you? Our government doesn't have a bill tabled to allow a "Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection" to collect our names, addresses, ATM and transaction records, and account balances, if that's what you mean by 'utopia'.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:22:46 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #301 - 06/15/10 04:29 PMJust so that nobody is caught unawares: [ www.zerohedge.com/article/builder-sentiment-tumbles-tax-credit-expires] Builder Sentiment Tumbles As Tax Credit Expires
neohguyMessage #302 - 06/15/10 04:50 PMLumber and other building products that are being shipped by rail are down big time when compared to 2008 and 2007 (ytd). Lumber and stone and glass products also declined last week when compared to the same week in 2009. I don't think the housing credit bought much. I'm not sure about the cash for clunkers either. While there is an improvement when compared to 2009, carloads are down ~32% when compared to 2008 and down ~41% when compared to 2007.
neohguyMessage #303 - 06/16/10 01:06 PM [ www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#] About this page | [ www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Active/PrintPage/PrintPage.aspx?PageId=3230] Print  [ www.briefing.com/Investor/Index.htm] Investor Home [ www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/CalendarsLanding.htm] Calendars Index [ www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArchiveSearch/ArchiveSearchInvestor.aspx?PageId=3229] Economic Calendar Archive Updated: 16-Jun-10 08:31 ET This Week's Calendar Click on a "Release" for Insight Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Jun 16 08:30 Housing Starts May 593K 680K 655K 659K 672K Jun 16 08:30 Building Permits May 574K 650K 631K 610K 606K Above is from: www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm Their written report will be released later today
Virgil SyonidMessage #304 - 06/16/10 04:05 PMA massive downward revision? Who'd've thunk? Thanks for the catch, neoh. 
neohguyMessage #305 - 06/17/10 12:12 PMAn interesting editorial by Stoneleigh at the Automatic Earth today. Stonleigh is more concerned about a deflationary scenario unfolding in the near term. Today she discusses the delisting of Fannie and Freddie. I don't really think that there will be a 90% decline in home prices but I've heard that some areas of the country did experience close to that drop during the 1930's: " Stoneleigh: So, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to be delisted from the NYSE. Stocks on the exchange must either act to boost the share price or delist if they show an average share price below $1 for over 30 days, which has been the case for Fannie Mae. It's hardly surprising that the companies should be perceived as virtually worthless, considering that they preside over about half ($5.5 trillion) of a mortgage market in terrible trouble. Moving away from even the limited accountability of public listing is also no surprise. Confidence games require reality to be obscured for as long as possible. While the move is being spun, especially in the case of Freddie Mac, as compatible "with a goal of conservatorship and the preservation and conservation of assets", in reality there is little future value to protect. Taxpayers have pumped in $145 billion already, as the alternative would have been a property price collapse. That is still clearly on the cards if support were to be withdrawn, hence the unlimited nature of the guarantee that has been offered, meaning unlimited liability for the taxpayer. Support has been greater than for other noted basket-cases such as AIG, and there is no end in sight to the red ink these companies seem capable of generating. A worst case scenario of $1 trillion in losses has been [ www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=an_hcY9YaJas&pos=10] mentioned, based on a further 20% decline in house prices and a tripling of the default rate. However, I find it inconceivable that such a mild outcome could be viewed as a worst case. Bubbles always show an undershoot to the downside as they implode. Even if one takes an incredibly optimistic view of the scale of the bubble, defining it as only the last few years of excess, that undershoot will cause larger losses than 20% from here. Likewise the default rate is set to skyrocket, never mind merely triple. The losses accruing to Fannie and Freddie are likely to be vastly larger than even the most pessimistic mainstream commentators can imagine. As longtime readers will know, my forecast for a real estate prices is for a decline of 90% on average, albeit with considerable local variation. For those who think this is not possible, you might want to look at what you can buy a house for right now in Detroit. It is considerably less than the price of a second-hand car, and in a market where the price of second-hand cars is depressed. In places where there is no work for miles around, and no access to mortgages in dying neighbourhoods, the pool of buyers will be limited to those who can afford buy a property in cash and would choose to spend what will be extremely scarce cash on that particular purchase. The price support that will convey will be minimal, to say the least. As unemployment takes a moonshot in the coming years, purchasing power will be far more limited than most can imagine. The liquidity crunch we are moving into will cause the same kind of economic seizure as we saw in the depression, when a lack of money alone made it exceptionally difficult to connect buyers and sellers, or producers and potential consumers. Money is the lubricant in the engine of the economy in the same way that oil is the lubricant in the engine of your car. Running an engine with too little lubricant will cause it to grind to a halt.The 'assistance' currently being provided in the form of downpayments is only going to make the situation worse in the long run. Bailouts are never for the little guy. Offering inducements to further indebtedness is merely a trap. It will do nothing but increase the pool of future debt slaves. This is not a benefit for the people it is ostensibly aimed at. Instead it is a cynical move intended to keep our game of extend-and-pretend goi
neohguyMessage #306 - 06/17/10 12:14 PMcontinued: extend-and-pretend going a little longer. Rising unemployment will cruelly expose the fragility of buying power and the ability to service debt in the relatively near future. Defaults are likely to be shockingly high, and with them losses to Fannie and Freddie. As John Stuart Mill observed, "Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has already been destroyed by betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." The construction of much of suburbia has been a giant exercise in the creation of negative added value. It is this decades-long commitment of resources to living arrangements with fatal structural dependencies that has been destructive of value, and there is a limit to how long we can stave off the day when that will be generally recognized. That is all we are doing in supporting Fannie and Freddie. Now that it appears the credit markets have turned again, the real economy will inevitably follow. The long rally facilitated a suspension of disbelief that was kind to policy makers while it lasted. The resumption of the downtrend will conversely strip away their credibility, making everything they do fail conspicuously and ignominiously.
outaheresoonMessage #307 - 06/17/10 01:01 PMwww.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7835405/Winnebago-sales-jump-signals-US-recovery.html Winnebago sales jump signals US recovery Winnebago sales jumped 165pc in the third quarter - a further sign of the United States's recovery from recession. On Thursday Winnebago Industries posted stronger-than-expected quarterly results as a rise in vehicle shipments to dealers pushed sales up from $50.8m in the third quarter of 2009 to $134.8m this year, [studio-5.financialcontent.com/ir/?Module=MediaViewer&GUID=13488227&Ticker=WGO] the company said in a statement[studio-5.financialcontent.com/ir/?Module=MediaViewer&GUID=13488227&Ticker=WGO] . Now there's a green shoot if there ever was one. Once Americans buy these bloated, gas hogs you know that we are on the verge of inflating another bubble.
neohguyMessage #308 - 06/17/10 01:27 PMNow there's a green shoot if there ever was one. Once Americans buy these bloated, gas hogs you know that we are on the verge of inflating another bubble. They are comparing a recent bad qtr to a dismal previous qtr. There are some people that can utilize these items and afford them. Forget about years past when the guy making 40k/yr bought them on impulse and used them two week ends/yr. I've read that agencies that rent these by the day/week are doing better as people learn that it's more cost effective to occasionally rent vs own. The local Harley dealer on Cleveland's west side has also had an increase in rental business from over the hill weekend warrior wannabe's.
outaheresoonMessage #309 - 06/17/10 01:37 PMThey are comparing a recent bad qtr to a dismal previous qtr. There are some people that can utilize these items and afford them. Forget about years past when the guy making 40k/yr bought them on impulse and used them two week ends/yr. I've read that agencies that rent these by the day/week are doing better as people learn that it's more cost effective to occasionally rent vs own. The local Harley dealer on Cleveland's west side has also had an increase in rental business from over the hill weekend warrior wannabe's. Now, now, Neo, no need to be negative. This is a 165% increase in sales. Ben Bubble Bernanke has managed to pull it off. I've adopted a new positive attitude. Go out and spend money, enjoy nature,... life is good. It now only costs 50 cents a mile to enjoy the Land of the Free and the Brave.
Virgil SyonidMessage #310 - 06/17/10 03:24 PMWinnebago sales jumped 165pc in the third quarter - a further sign of the United States's recovery from recession. They should change their slogan to: "Winnebago: the New American Dream Home". If you can't afford a house... or rent, is there really any other alternative? An interesting editorial by Stoneleigh at the Automatic Earth today. ... Today she discusses the delisting of Fannie and Freddie. Maybe they should diversify more into the Winnebago mortgage market.
neohguyMessage #311 - 06/17/10 03:55 PMMaybe they should diversify more into the Winnebago mortgage market. Yes, I'll have to tell her that outahere has found a better way.
Virgil SyonidMessage #312 - 06/25/10 05:51 PMIndeed.
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:23:38 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #313 - 06/25/10 05:52 PMI put this together over an hour last night to celebrate my 2,000th post on the boards. Those with resolution-impaired browsers can also see it [ img683.imageshack.us/img683/5230/marketopoly.png] here.
Regards to all, and keep those green shoots comin'!
- Virgil
Driftr
Message #314 - 06/25/10 05:59 PM
That's awesome Virgil. I just want to know why I got stuck sitting next to Archie.  Unless that's the spot normally taken by Illionois. If so, then it makes perfect sense since I'm originally from there.
kman49
Message #315 - 06/25/10 06:04 PM
That my good man, is the best!!! Gotta have a T-shirt. Where is the MT on-line electronic checkout?
Can't wait for the game rules
neohguy
Message #316 - 06/25/10 06:07 PM
I get to be next to Kate and LongSam .
traelin0
Message #317 - 06/25/10 06:25 PM
Wow man, that board is killer. Wait until LongSam sees who she's sitting next to, LOL!
EDIT: LMFAO, DOGFOIL owns Baltic and Mediterranean!!! Look at the helmet on that dog, oh Lord!!!
marshallcrazy
Message #318 - 06/25/10 06:53 PM
Ah, dang it, I'm not on there!! Oh well, even though I've been viewing for a long time, I still am a newbie when it comes to posting. I read more than I post!! Maybe I can be one of the game pieces LOL? We've gotta have some cards for when you land "here" you lose all your posts. How about one where you're forced to pay Habinger for something LOL!!
This is awesome guys!!
Virgil Syonid
Message #319 - 06/25/10 07:16 PM
Ah, dang it, I'm not on there!! Oh well, even though I've been viewing for a long time, I still am a newbie when it comes to posting. Some of the best ones get to be the tokens.
LivingInCali, Veteran_Lender, marshallcrazy, reverendbarb...
So many MarketTalkers, so few property spaces.
frank the impaler
Message #320 - 06/25/10 09:54 PM
Virgil-What can I sayyou are (in my opinion) one of the smartest, clever, talented, creative people I know...and I don't know you!
I really dig the "streak thread" and I most defiantly like the property I own
You are one of the many reasons I post here, because "our thing" keeps me honest, because I know you would call me on it!
!!!!!!!!!!!!I love your your special edition, thanks for including me in your game!!!!!!!!!!
traelin0
Message #321 - 06/25/10 11:44 PM
Virgil-What can I sayyou are (in my opinion) one of the smartest, clever, talented, creative people I know...and I don't know you! I agree, and I would not want to be on his bad side, LOL. I've said it before, some people just know how to write. And they usually aren't engineers so it's a deadly combination.
kman49
Message #322 - 06/26/10 03:44 AM
You are one of the many reasons I post here, Yup!
and I would not want to be on his bad side, LOL
Been there. Pretty funny too. You just need some humility to appreciate it
decoy409
Message #323 - 06/26/10 04:00 AM
Virgil , Simply INCREDIBLE! It is beyond talent you have!
Say FTI , we need to build houses! That is the ghetto part of town we is in.
frank the impaler
Message #324 - 06/26/10 04:03 AM
Decoy................................................REALLY....................................................................HOTELS !!!!!
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:27:05 GMT -5
kman49Message #325 - 06/26/10 04:14 AMYou two guys have prime real estate! Have at it Virgil knows what he's doing..Have some fun
LongSamMessage #326 - 06/26/10 04:20 AMOMG, Post Of The Year!! That is priceless, Virgil. Sam/MSN Money Moderator
decoy409Message #327 - 06/26/10 04:34 AMFTI , why did I know you were going to say that!
djrickMessage #328 - 06/26/10 04:43 AMROFL, thanks Virgil
Virgil SyonidMessage #329 - 06/26/10 11:30 AMWhat wonderful feedback! Heartfelt thanks to all.
AhamburgerMessage #330 - 06/26/10 04:43 PM Virgil! You gotta add a, Produit du Canada symbol, for your BMO pick, and the fact that Canada is the Best! Looks awesome guy!
frank the impalerMessage #331 - 06/26/10 10:06 PMTabernac, Sacramon,...Corliss ...Buy it's OK Ahamburger Decoy....FOCUS......CONSISTENCY......STRUCTURE......COMMAND AND CONTROL!!!!!
Solstice Tesla_DC-MemeMessage #332 - 06/27/10 12:37 AM The chance card was...quaint, but I deserve better. I was crucial to the crushing defeat of El Harbo. You owe me. I want naming rights! Call it Momopoly. -M. Monkey
kman49Message #333 - 06/27/10 01:05 AMDisgruntled monkey mugs are available at the MT gift shop!
AhamburgerMessage #334 - 06/27/10 01:58 AMBuy it's OK I think so too, and I'm glad you are. BTW, I'll say hi to my socialist, french catholic, grandmother in-law. You would love the racist old............ Disgruntled monkey mugs are available at the MT gift shop!
I'll take two!!!
kman49Message #335 - 06/27/10 03:10 AMBTW, I'll say hi to my socialist, french catholic, grandmother in-law. You would love the racist old.... That would make her colourful
AhamburgerMessage #336 - 06/27/10 03:25 AMThat would make her colourful You know it!!!
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Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2010 6:27:57 GMT -5
Virgil SyonidMessage #337 - 07/21/10 01:22 AMMichigan Says Enough To Fed: Takes Matters Into Own Hands As It Starts Using Own Currency...And Gold Off the "Site that Shall Not Be Linked-To":Either in anticipation of QE2 which will cut the value of the dollar by another 50% once another $2 trillion in toxic crap becomes the "assets" backing the viability of the dollar, or just because they are sick of Fed policies, mid-Michigan has taken monetary matters into their own hands, and in one simple act, completely bypassed the destabilizing influence of the domestic currency printers. As ConnectMidMichigan reports, "New types of money are popping up across Mid-Michigan and supporters say, it's not counterfeit, but rather a competing currency. Right now, you can buy a meal or visit a chiropractor without using actual U.S. legal tender." The plan is so simple, it just may work - after all if one can't get away from the Fed's probing and pickpocketing long fingers, all one has to do is learn to live without its parasitic pieces of paper. And not just paper: "I sell three or four every single day and then I get one or two back a week," said Dave Gillie, owner of Gillies Coney Island Restaurant in Genesee Township. Gillie also accepts silver, gold, copper and other precious metals to pay for food." So yes, you can eat gold.... and load up your gas tank with it. Go Michigan!
saldeckMessage #338 - 07/21/10 06:24 AMMichigan is not the only state that has had enough. What about Arizona dollars?
Bythe wayMessage #339 - 07/21/10 11:07 PMGreat Monopoly board Virgil !! My only concern is Mr. Rich Uncle Penny bags looks like Uncle Ben Bernanke....and the fact he handles the money bag! Is there something we don't know about this game and logo and how reflects our reality? Conspiracy theorist must have an answer... Keep in mind that in Monopoly game "The supply of money is theoretically unlimited; if the bank runs out of money the players must make do with other markers, or calculate on paper. "....
neohguyMessage #340 - 08/13/10 05:01 PMwww.ohio.com/news/break_news/100539834.html Ohio sees 11th year in a row of record liquor sales By Associated Press POSTED: 12:28 p.m. EDT, Aug 12, 2010
COLUMBUS: Officials say Ohio's liquor sales numbers suggest the economic downturn has people going out less and choosing to drink at home.
The state Department of Commerce says sales of spirits to wholesale buyers such as bars and restaurants continued to decline in the latest fiscal year, while retail sales to Ohio consumers kept increasing. Agency spokesman Matt Mullins says it's a trend seen for about three years......
Virgil SyonidMessage #341 - 08/18/10 06:50 PMHa. A few green shoots I missed from By and neoh. Here's one from Tyler that he in turn gets from Lazard Capital Markets. I couldn't resist reposting it here: 
With the bulk of stock trading (over 70%) now executed by various algorithms, which in turn are programmed by 20 year old math Ph.D. who just happen to know nothing about P/E ratios, debt leverage, interest coverage, PEG, balance sheets, and other such relics of an ancient fundamental-ist past, it is no surprise that momentum trading and a nearly 1.00 cross asset correlation is now the norm. What it also means is that HFT provides a permanent bid, as the computer algos are woefully incapable of "reading" between the lines of various press releases, and trade purely on keywords (a topic we have discussed previously), which we are confident the PR departments at major blue chip companies are all too aware of and have long-since reverse engineered. Yet the most notable consequence of the HFT perma bid is that it tends to provide a terrific "idiot" receptacle for all stocks that institutions want to dispose of. To wit: anyone looking at yesterday's trading would think that everyone bought all stocks equally. Not so - as the attached chart from Lazard Capital Markets confirms, this was certainly not the case, and in fact block transactions, i.e., those initiated by large institutions, saw a major unwind of Consumer Durables, Materials and Retailing stocks, even as stupid computers were buying up everything. In essence, institutions are now selling into the HFT bid, which manages to pull up the NBBO far higher than it would be without such an algorithmic thrust. And since the price is higher, retail momo chasers end up following, and buying into a market in which the smart money is actively dumping positions. The sad conclusion is that this will result in such a massive bid-side positional imbalance one day, that HFTs will be unable to sell to each other, and the May 6 redux will occur all over again.
The other scary observation is that the market is now so fragmented, it has to be thought of as HFT and "everyone else." And with implied correlation for the entire market already at record levels, north of 80, and since the block trades tend to be far more rational and balanced, it is probably fair to say that implied correlation for the High Frequency Traders alone is at or near 100, meaning that for computers, all stocks trade as 1 or 0. The entire market is now a binary on or off operation. And May 6 demonstrated all too well when the flickering 1 finally moves to a solid 0 position.
SkyNet may be sentient, but it sure is dumb.
(Bold by me.) Ah, the masters of HFT discover that the smart money is outmaneuvering their algos. MarketTalk traders should adapt their strategies accordingly. (Note what the "smart" money is doing.)
Virgil SyonidMessage #342 - 09/22/10 10:39 PMFrom ICI: the streak continues! Here are the facts: Beginning on May 5, there have been 20 consecutive outflows from domestic mutual equity funds. The average weekly outflow has been ($3.5) billion. Total outflows in this period are $70 billion. Total outflows YTD are $68 billion. The S&P on May 5, the day the series of outflows began, was 116.8. Today it closed at 113.5, a 2.8% decline despite almost $100 billion of runrated outflows. Furthermore, as we previously disclosed, YTD ETF flows through August into pure domestic equity-related strategies have been a negative $16.8 billion. In other words, the stock market is now virtually unchanged in 2010, even as almost $80 billion in equity-capital has been withdrawn. Weekly flows into domestic equity mutual funds: [ www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/ICI%20Weekly%20Flows%209.22.jpg]  Cumulative equity flows into domestic equity mutual funds: [ www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/ICI%20Flows%209.22.jpg]  But do the markets care? Not with permanent open market operations every MWF. Another round of green shoots on the house!
decoy409Message #343 - 09/22/10 10:48 PM Why that's wonderful news Virgil! Simply splendid! My latest headline confirms this article you have so generously provided for us.
Virgil SyonidMessage #344 - 12/08/10 05:31 PMAh, memories. (The "streak" from #342 has since been extended to 30 weeks.) An interesting view on whether the S&P 500 is overestimating sales growth, brought to us by the Applied Finance Group. An excerpt from Priced in Expectations For The S&P 500: When expectations are low companies tend to be more likely to outperform those expectations and outperform their benchmarks. Applying this technique for an entire index is also a good way to tell if the index is over or undervalued as a whole. By understanding the embedded expectations for growth that companies must deliver to justify their current trading price, clients can develop a ·hurdle rate· to quickly determine if the company·s expectations are rich or low.
Below is a chart displaying the implied sales growth (black dotted line) of the entire S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) over the last 12 years as well as the 10 year median sales growth (red line) the index has achieved. This chart also illustrates the forecasted expectations (blue shaded area) for sales growth that the S&P 500 would need to generate in order to justify its current trading level according to the current embedded expectations.
When using the Value Expectations framework to solve for the implied sales growth for every company within the S&P 500 (assuming EBITDA and Asset Turns remain constant), we found that the average implied sales growth for the overall index is right around 13%. This is much greater than what the S&P 500 has been able to deliver over the last 10 years (10 year median sales growth for every S&P 500 company is 9.1%) which would suggest the index currently has high expectations. Apologies to FTI, who doesn't like charts or sub-13.5% growth predictions. Green shoots ho-o!
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For the government it surely is as is evident from their actions (or hmmm ... their inactions) but for everyone else 
thanks Virgil for post 241, I have purposely pulled back from following the markets too closely, guess it is fatigue and I decided we would definitely see no corrective downturn before 4/15 either. 