Trading Ideas or Investments for Shorter Time Frame

[clarkrl2]

bought AEL (American Equity Investment) @$28.49 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold ALL (Allstate Corp) for a gain of 12.8% in 5.5 months.

[clarkrl2]

bought WNR (Western Refining) @$45.80 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold AMBC @$25.34 for a gain of 0.4% in just over four months. I'm still looking for new buys but with the way the markets have been I'm getting very selective.

[clarkrl2]

Bought C (Citigroup Inc.) @$52.75

[clarkrl2]

Bought PRE(Partnerre LTD)@$129. I've got a limit sell order on VOYA and limit buy orders on HMN and JPM open but it doesn't look like any will fill today.

[clarkrl2]

Bought HMN (Horace Mann Educator Corp.) @$34.

[clarkrl2]

Sold VOYA (Voya Financial Inc) @$42.89 for a loss of -0.3% in 10 weeks.

Sold AEL (American Equity Investment) @$27.32 for a loss of -4.1% in 8 weeks.

[tyfighter3]

Buy Turky futures or chicken. Short Tyson, Yum, and so forth. JMO

[clarkrl2]

bought BG (Bunge Ltd) @$88.50

bought IDCC (Interdigital Inc) @$55.25

[clarkrl2]

Bought NSR (Nuestar Inc.) @$28.70.

Sold WNR (Western Refining) @43 for a loss of 6.1%.

[clarkrl2]

sold DAC (Danaos Corp.) @$6.30 for a gain of 6.8% in three months.

This was by my record the completion of 49 trades since I started this thread. I currently have 8 open. When I close the next position I will try to give an update on performance. I will also try to update after the completion of 75 and 100 trades.

[clarkrl2]

Bought PERY (Perry Ellis International) @$24.75

[clarkrl2]

Here's a completely useless tool from CNN Money but I thought it was interesting anyway.

money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/middle-class-calculator/

It looks like it may be dividing incomes in your county, state into quartiles to see if your between Q1 and Q3.

Edit: Here's the methodology they give

Methodology

For this calculator, we define middle class as two-thirds to two times median income for the county. In counties where two-thirds of median income would fall close to the poverty line, we set the lower end of middle class at $28,500, which is 1.5 times the national poverty level for a three-person household.

[clarkrl2]

Sold PERY (Perry Ellis) @24.5 for a loss of 1%.

This marked the close of the 50th trade so I will give an update later on some results.

[clarkrl2]

Since I started tracking trades on this thread:

The longest holding period has been PMC 216 calendar days from 10/30/2013 to 6/3/2014
The shortest holding period has been KEY 10 calendar days from 7/14/2014 to 7/24/2014
The largest gain has been PMC 84.1%
The worst loss has been WRLD -21.7%
The average holding period has been 76 calendar days
The average gain has been 3.4%
That calculates to an average annual gain of 16.0%

It’s hard to find comparative data for a point of reference because I didn’t make my first trade using this screening method until Apr. 3, 2013. It was many days into the thread before I was anywhere near fully invested which I consider to be 10 positions, but here are some popular ETF returns which I have annualize to allow for easier comparisons:

IWM 16.8% (annualized)
SPY 16.8% (annualized)
QQQ 27.6% (annualized)

I prefer comparing myself to the IWM because it represents the Russell 2000. Most of the stocks I pick with this method are in the market cap range of the Russell 2000.
The reason for the extreme outperformance of QQQ is likely mostly influenced by the outperformance of AAPL during that period. AAPL gained from a split adjusted 61.97 to its current price of 127.80 for a gain of 106.2%.
Currently I am holding eight of a maximum ten positions. ISLE is one of the holdings and it is likely to replace PMC has the largest gainer because it is up over 135% at this time. That could also increase my annualized return by quite a bit. The other seven stocks have gains between 0% and 10% at this time.
I will try to do another update after 75 trades have been completed.

[ModE98]

You are doing well, clark.  If the market turns sour and corrects, be prepared, for it surely will at some time ahead.

[clarkrl2]

Sold BG (Bunge LTD) @$85.81 for a loss of 3%.

[clarkrl2]

Sold NSR (Neustar) @$30 for a gain of 4.5% in about 2 months.

The trade in the previous post was about 9 weeks for BG

[clarkrl2]

Bought AEL (American Equity Investment Life) @$27.

[clarkrl2]

Bought ESI (ITT Educational Services) @$4.17. They are down about 25% after a big move up before earnings this morning. They earned $.03 compared to $.12 expectations. I got a little bit lucky that it opened near the low but if I had time I would have canceled my limit order.

[clarkrl2]

Bought BBSI (Barrett Business Solutions) @$41.

[ModE98]

On July 31, 2015, Barrett Business Services, Inc. announced that its board of directors had declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share. Payable on September 4, 2015, to all stockholders of record as of August 21, 2015.
Just nineteen days to go to catch the dividend.

[clarkrl2]

Sold ESI (ITT Educational Services) @$3 for a loss of 28.1% in two weeks. I really didn't manage this position very well but on the bright side my limit order to buy filled at such a low price that my position size for this was only about 80-85% of my normal position size. The proper way to have handled this trade would have been to sell it immediately as soon as earnings failed to meet expectations.

[clarkrl2]

sold IDCC (Interdigital Inc.) @49.50 for a loss of about 10.4% in a little less than 4 months.

I have several sell limit orders in place which haven't filled. Those orders include BBSI, C, HMN, ISLE. Right now I have no sell order for AEL, NCI, or PRE. I have seven positions out of a maximum 10.

[clarkrl2]

sold ISLE (Isle of Capri Casinos) @$18 for a gain of 129.3% in about 8 months. They are reporting earnings on Wed. and the stock had hit several of my sell signals so I didn't want to hold it into earnings.

I am adding AEL to the sell block in addition to those listed in the previous post. I'm not planning on doing much buying unless the IWM (Russell 2000 small and mid cap etf) moves above the 200 day sma.

[clarkrl2]

Sold HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corp) @$33 for a loss of 2.9% in four months.

I still have three open sell orders on AEL, BBSI, and C. In addition to these I still own NCI and PRE so I am roughly 50% invested in the equity portion of my portfolio and about 43% cash as a percent of the entire portfolio.

[clarkrl2]

Sold BBSI (Barrett Business Solutions) @37.75 for a loss of 7.9% in about six weeks.

I still have limit sell orders for AEL and C. I am still holding NCI and PRE. That is four of a maximum ten positions.

FedEx missing their forecasts on a weaker than expected economy is more worrisome to me than tomorrow's interest rate decision.

[clarkrl2]

Sold AEL (American Equity Investment)@$24.75 for a loss of 9.1% in eight weeks.

This brings me to 3 of a maximum 10 positions.

[clarkrl2]

Since I haven't posted anything lately I thought I would give a quick update. I haven't been doing much marketwise except waiting. I still own three positions NCI which has been doing pretty good of late. PRE for which I'm waiting for the buyout deal to be completed. C which lost some today putting it a couple of % underwater. I'm still waiting for IWM to move back above the 200 day SMA which is now declining.