Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 8:30:56 GMT -5
Vicious dogs and razor wire, check!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 8:39:17 GMT -5
Some really good tips in this thread. When will you know you have to run to the bank and get all your money?
By the way watching Revolution... Make you think a lot of "what if"
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 8:42:20 GMT -5
I think getting your money out of the bank ASAP would be the priority.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 8:47:25 GMT -5
I think cash would be useful in the short term because until the reality of what is happening sinks in, i think cash would buy you a lot of things quickly in that moment.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 8:48:48 GMT -5
I think getting your money out of the bank ASAP would be the priority. I get that, but would cash even do anyone any good? Gold? Silver? Expensive silverware? I really don't know; but it will suck if it does happen.
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mrsdutt
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Post by mrsdutt on Oct 28, 2012 9:37:55 GMT -5
I'm wondering if checking out the Great Depression, it's effects, and pitfalls would be a wise thing. Kind of a starting point to predicting the possible future.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 10:19:04 GMT -5
Steve, if we go the way of Greece, I think your advice is good. The only thing I'd add is to be low key and inconspicuous about the fact that you have means, food, ammo, shelter or just about anything valuable. Talking to others in your area about prep is probably not a good idea. Having a huge fence with razor wire is only going to make you a target. Unless you end up in a coalition of neighbors who work together to defend a small geographic territory, you're going to be vulnerable to crowds, looting and raiders, which are all part of that type of unrest.
Do your prep but keep it quiet and subtle. Even running a generator may make you a target, I'd think. Figure out how to be comfy without letting others know you're comfy.
And get some dogs. Big dogs. IMHO, they're going to be a key part of any home defense.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 10:26:51 GMT -5
BTW, if we go the way of Greece hyperinflation is much more likely than deflation. So even though it's not good YM advice, loading up on debt to buy hard assets would be a good play if you can secure and protect those assets later.
If you were 100% sure we're going the way of Greece but a little further in the way of civil unrest, borrow every single dollar you can and load up on medication, a few nonperishable food stocks and ammo. If you think we're going the way of Greece yet the basics of government and property ownership will not go away, leverage as much as you can to buy real estate.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 10:36:58 GMT -5
Neighbors and communities banding together to share resources would be the best way, IMHO. It's a great idea, but you have to have the right neighbors. If your neighbors are handy or have other valuable skills and are willing to pull their weight, this would be fantastic. If your neighbors are unprepared, unskilled and unwilling to work, you've just exposed yourself to more trouble than you can possibly imagine.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 10:57:21 GMT -5
Oh, it is bad advice unless as I said you're "100% sure" of what will happen. Nobody is ever going to be 100% sure of what will happen, so it would be a bad idea to actually do those things. I was just giving my thoughts on what I'd do if I had 100% foresight. That's the problem with most of these discussions and was part of what I was trying (apparently unsuccessfully ) to point out. Unless you know exactly what's going to happen, being totally prepared is impossible. Some of the things that would be a great idea and very helpful in a certain disaster are going to be a bad idea should something else slightly different happen.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 11:05:52 GMT -5
I think if a person wants to gamble big it should be only with a part of their moony. Now is a time to try and hold onto wealth. Especially for those with real wealth and a content lifestyle. Remember it is the pigs who get slaughtered. I agree with this theory, but the actual implementation is tough. For example, I'm sitting on a pretty big cash hoard right now. It's earning next to nothing. I have no desire to gamble - I don't even like Vegas - but there are many different ways I can think that I could screw this up even trying to keep it safe and just trying to "hold on to" that wealth. Keep it in cash - if hyperinflation comes, it will be worthless. Poof goes that chunk of wealth. Invest in real estate - still fairly risky. If we end up with a double dip recession or worse, it could still decline significantly in value and cost a significant amount to maintain and pay taxes on even though it's worthless for many years. If things go really crazy and we end up with lawlessness, the "ownership" of real estate will be meaningless. Invest in the stock market - we all know this isn't exactly gambling, but isn't exactly safe and guaranteed, either. Especially in the context of disaster planning. Invest in gold - still at historic highs, if we don't have a complete disaster but things continue to be bad, might be OK. On the other hand if we have a recovery, valuation will drop like a rock. If we have a total disaster, I have no realistic way to safeguard that much gold plus I think it will not be nearly as valuable as ammo and food. Invest in my business or one of the other business ideas I have - who knows what the tax, regulatory, healthcare, employee, etc. situation will be even 3 months from now? Seems pretty risky to make that decision until a lot of things shake out and become clearer. Oh, and if there's some sort of disaster/collapse, that money's toast as well. Invest in medicine and ammo - will be a genius move if we have a complete government collapse or disaster. Otherwise, it will be a way to simply waste the money. So, what's the best thing to do with my cash stash to be safe, hold on to the wealth and not get slaughtered? (And remember, in this post, we're talking in the context of what will happen if there's a disaster or potential collapse of the monetary system or government?)
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 11:12:10 GMT -5
Boy, if things ever went this bad, we'd all pretty much be screwed. Not all of us, that's the point. If you have a pretty good guess what will happen and are willing to gamble big on it, you could do fairly well. The problem is that many of the moves you'd need to make to be successful in one scenario are going to render you toast under a slightly different scenario.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 11:16:04 GMT -5
Steve, overall I agree with your approach.
I do think it's important to remember, though, that it's not a "one size fits all disasters" thing. Shooting, gardening, being self sufficient are great skills to have no matter what. Debt vs. payoff, though, is a little more complicated.
I happen to think inflation is much more likely than anything we're talking about here. If that happens, leverage now (especially in real estate and certain hard assets) will pay off handsomely in the future. Also, if there's a total doomsday scenario where we're all relying on gardening and shooting our food to survive, it's unlikely that prior debt is going to be too much an issue. So for me, debt is not an issue that I think can be addressed quite as easily under the heading of good disaster planning.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 11:27:49 GMT -5
Milee, can you please give some examples of hard assets? Specifically, ones that you feel would be the most valuable if we see high inflation. This is probably not the textbook definition, but I think of them as physical items that are necessities, not luxuries, and will be needed no matter what the economic climate is. Art, furniture, cars, etc. probably don't fall into the category of hard assets that I think of as inflation hedges, although some sophisticated investors do use art and antiques as a hedge. Again, though, those would become worthless in a disaster or collapse situation even though they would make money in just a simple inflationary situation. Real estate, building supplies, certain textiles, bulk food/commodities, fuel, things like that are what I'd consider hard assets that are good inflation hedges. I've seen some people mention others, like education debt, as a reasonable investment if you're expecting inflation, but I don't agree with that. Maybe I'm too much a basic thinker, but I'd rather have something physical and that doesn't depend on the job market or overall economy. And yes, if you think inflation is coming you want to borrow as much as you can to buy hard assets, not use your money to pay down debt.
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milee
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Post by milee on Oct 28, 2012 11:32:45 GMT -5
But again, this is why it's so complicated. A certain action or investment is fantastic if something happens, but if that something turns out to be a bigger degree than expected, then you're sunk.
Inflation is a good example of that. If you think the current government and law will exist in the future to protect your person and property, but there will be large inflation, you want to buy as much real estate as possible. On the other hand, if inflation gets too out of control or the government collapses and there's anarchy, your real estate is not going to be defensible and you would have been better off buying crates of ammo.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Oct 28, 2012 11:57:15 GMT -5
BTW, if we go the way of Greece hyperinflation is much more likely than deflation. So even though it's not good YM advice, loading up on debt to buy hard assets would be a good play if you can secure and protect those assets later. If you were 100% sure we're going the way of Greece but a little further in the way of civil unrest, borrow every single dollar you can and load up on medication, a few nonperishable food stocks and ammo. If you think we're going the way of Greece yet the basics of government and property ownership will not go away, leverage as much as you can to buy real estate. The thing about collapses is when they do happen, they happen really fast. Some people may see it coming, but chances are it's going to hit hard and fast, too fast to really acumulate lots of real estate. I don't own any real estate and can't really afford it, guess I'm screwed
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 11:59:35 GMT -5
Here is the thread I put it up just few days ago. Might be helpful for everyone. World economy and U S.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 12:01:11 GMT -5
The book "One Second After" does a good job of showing what might happen, IMHO. I have heard alcohol is a good thing to stock. It can be used medicinally and for barter.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 12:02:30 GMT -5
BTW, if we go the way of Greece hyperinflation is much more likely than deflation. So even though it's not good YM advice, loading up on debt to buy hard assets would be a good play if you can secure and protect those assets later. If you were 100% sure we're going the way of Greece but a little further in the way of civil unrest, borrow every single dollar you can and load up on medication, a few nonperishable food stocks and ammo. If you think we're going the way of Greece yet the basics of government and property ownership will not go away, leverage as much as you can to buy real estate. The thing about collapses is when they do happen, they happen really fast. Some people may see it coming, but chances are it's going to hit hard and fast, too fast to really acumulate lots of real estate. I don't own any real estate and can't really afford it, guess I'm screwed phoenix, As long as you have a job. you will not be screwed. And you are young, you will have many years to make up the difference.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 12:08:20 GMT -5
I agree with milee many of her reasoning of the issues. But the thing is nobody really knows what will happen. There is two camp, inflation and deflation. www.project-syndicate.org/This is great web-site for understanding minds of many economist.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Oct 28, 2012 13:34:41 GMT -5
I don't think I have the heart to raise animals for food. If things get to that point, we'll just secure the house as best we can and travel south to ILs' place... they have a lot of property, a lot of guns, and FIL actually likes killing things with them And they're friendly with the Amish, who I think would thrive in an end-of-the-world situation! Really hoping it doesn't come to that point, though... I would rather not live with ILs, as much as I love them
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 29, 2012 12:55:45 GMT -5
If you're sitting on a bunch of cash and really thought the economy was headed for disaster the best thing you could do is to convert the dollars to something else. Swiss francs or something. Hoard your non US cash in an overseas account. Make sure you're friends with somebody that owns a plane capable of getting out of the country.
There's no rule saying you'd have to ride out the financial disaster here if we had one. If you have the means, ride it out in comfort in another country.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Oct 29, 2012 13:17:09 GMT -5
Are there any countries that would be in OK shape if the US were screwed?
I'm thinking maybe Singapore or Monaco or Monte Carlo or one of those teeny countries without many natives, but I dunno.
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mandyms
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Post by mandyms on Oct 29, 2012 13:20:12 GMT -5
I don't think I have the heart to raise animals for food. If things get to that point, we'll just secure the house as best we can and travel south to ILs' place... they have a lot of property, a lot of guns, and FIL actually likes killing things with them And they're friendly with the Amish, who I think would thrive in an end-of-the-world situation! Really hoping it doesn't come to that point, though... I would rather not live with ILs, as much as I love them I'm with you there, Mid. I've been interesting in "urban homesteading" for quite a while, but don't think I could slaughter animals. Raising chickens/ducks for eggs and trying to grow soybeans/dried beans for protein would probably be how I would get by...but I say that now while I can still buy a faceless piece of meat from the grocery store.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 29, 2012 13:40:31 GMT -5
I'm thinking China or Germany. If the US falls apart they have the manufacturing capacity to ramp up and meet the demand that the US was filling. Their economies are tied to ours so they'd take a hit, but they might be in a better position to come out of it stronger than they went in. I don't speak either language though, so I'd probably look for somewhere English speaking if I was going to bug out.
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