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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2011 4:24:33 GMT -5
at this moment platinum is down $25, 1.36% --- suggest silver and gold will follow.... real time quotes, look on the second line for gold silver and platinum finviz.com/futures.ashx |
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 10, 2011 9:56:14 GMT -5
Nice sell-off this morning. Perhaps the beginning of a short, near term, correction? Tough to call.
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Post by yclept on Feb 10, 2011 11:52:16 GMT -5
As I mentioned on Rovo's thread, this morning looks to me like a classic "buy-the-dip" mentality is setting in. I haven't felt that was an operative factor for several years. Greed overcoming fear?
I know I'm still very cautious (every "buy" feels like pulling teeth, and every "sell" like a weight lifted) and am operating out of a lot more fear than greed, but I may not be typical.
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 10, 2011 13:42:31 GMT -5
Caution and disciplined investing work in all markets. "There's a time to hold 'em, and a time to fold 'em, and a time to just walk away." If only we could, with full conviction, determine accurately those "times". This can be a very tough game to play with no sweat and worry.  |
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 10, 2011 15:53:27 GMT -5
Holy cow! The market defies all odds and logic. The sell-off was short-lived this morning. Big comeback this afternoon. It just seems to desire higher ground. Well, tomorrow is Friday, so will they sell off for the weekend?
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safeharbor37
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Post by safeharbor37 on Feb 13, 2011 12:53:38 GMT -5
"By low. Sell high." actually means; "Buy lower than you sell and sell higher than you buy." It really isn't about picking "highs" and "lows" and applies as well to "swing trading," "momentum trading," day trading and long-term buy and hold.
I suspect that we're in a "high" period so I'm not looking for "buys" based on the market, but might see some "picks" although I haven't seen any lately. I'm sitting on some stuff I picked up at good prices [buy low], but most are paying a good dividend for the purchase price and I couldn't get that return if I sold ~ so I'm sitting on it, but all that goes up comes down [at least the market] so there'll come a time when I'll need to sell [high] to avoid the consequences of a fall in the market and to take advantage of other opportunities [such as interest rates, etc.] ~ then, of course, wait for another auspicious time to buy.
I have one small position that doesn't pay a dividend which I could sell at a good profit and one, PFE, that I'm still down on but am receiving about 4% on my investment.
As I posted earlier, I expect the market to end higher than it began, but we'll have to have a pull back sometime. I'm just not sure when and don't want to incur a lot of tax expenses unnecessarily. I'm probably a lot smaller investor than most who post here and don't "trade" regularly so some of the "indicators" mentioned I'm either not familiar with or don't follow as I'm not interested in "active trading," but more in long term trends.
Anyway, I'm thinking that there may be others in my shoes who have some insights I could use. I'll admit I received more bad advice on these boards than good advice so I tend to use information as "food for thought" rather than "advice." The worst advice has always been of the "sky is falling" variety although, a long time ago, there was some overoptimism, but the dot.com bust took care of a lot of that.
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Post by rovo on Feb 13, 2011 19:24:08 GMT -5
Safeharbor37, There are many of us on this board using a buy and hold strategy. The "hold" part may not be forever but at least until it appears something is going wrong with either the company or the market. Most of my dollars are in B&H but I like to fool around with both an occasional day trade and swing trading.
Buy and Hold makes for a dull board and this is why we talk about the trades we are making or considering.
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 24, 2011 11:32:35 GMT -5
Looks like events have dictated the awaited "correction" and the 11000s (or worse) lie ahead. The crisis in Libya and spreading discontent in the Middle East is ongoing with many consequences to be borne.... inflation appears on the increase and the Fed cannot keep interest rates at extreme lows without adding to our problems. The "piper" demands to be paid the bill is long overdue. This may develop into the "Summer of our Discontent".  |
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 24, 2011 11:59:11 GMT -5
Looks like events have dictated the awaited "correction" and the 11000s (or worse) lie ahead. The crisis in Libya and spreading discontent in the Middle East is ongoing with many consequences to be borne.... inflation appears on the increase and the Fed cannot keep interest rates at extreme lows without adding to our problems. The "piper" demands to be paid the bill is long overdue. This may develop into the "Summer of our Discontent". Yes, and no Exxon and Chevron are great right now, and my utility is sitting there throwing dividends at me. JPM is sitting pretty steady right now, but have to keep an eye on that one....... |
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Post by yclept on Feb 24, 2011 13:08:27 GMT -5
Bought some AMGN this morning @ 50.7699. RSI is below 20, and yet fundamentals look solid to me -- not a lot of growth recently, but pharma is like that. When growth comes, it is usually related to new drug approvals.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2011 13:23:52 GMT -5
Short Term trading signals authored by TradingMarkets.com
2 period RSI suggests a "buy"
i've never used these signals, i don't know if they work.
TradingMarkets says they get an 80% win-rate.... sounds a little too good to be true...
[a href="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P"]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P[/a]
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2011 13:31:12 GMT -5
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 24, 2011 14:01:21 GMT -5
If they had an 80%+ win rate with that program everybody would jump on it. Usually if it seems a bit to good to be true, it is not. At least, have found it to be that way. I'm a very old fashioned investor, do not trust these trading platforms. Perhaps some have a better than 50% rate of success; the big houses use special algorithm programs, apparently with a winning trading record.
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Post by danshirley on Feb 24, 2011 17:12:33 GMT -5
I just took a look at these Tradingmarkets guys:
Every portfolio they list results on states:
"Simulated returns from the model back-test Jan 2001 through Sep 2010."
This is the most transparent scam there is. They have been in business for years. I remember them from way back. Where are their actual results?? They don't show those.
What they do is tune their portfolios' parameters every year to give max past results and use those pretend results to sucker in subscribers. This is great if you can trade yesterday... If you use them to trade tomorrow you are flying blind.
If they had any decent real results they would list them. I remember them as generating daily double talk to string you along as long as possible.
YEKKKK
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2011 20:27:08 GMT -5
extremely high and extremely low RSI readings have very high win-rates.... as well as extremely high and low stochastic readings, and CCI readings.... so if the stock your trading is above the 200 ma and it has a 2 period RSI reading of less than 5 and you are willing to sell as soon as the stock trades above a 5 period ma. i believe your win-rate would be very high.... i've used a 2 period RSI for years intraday and it works!!!! i've backed tested overbought/oversold indicators for 3 years and 5 years, and they work.... thus i know the win-rates will be high, these are very short term signals, almost like scalping.... when all the requirements are met, the RSI strategy works.... the chart shows a 100% win-rate intraday, but you don't often get extremely high or extremely low readings.... DUH!!! Attachments:
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safeharbor37
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Post by safeharbor37 on Feb 25, 2011 12:59:28 GMT -5
OK. What's going on? A couple of days ago I was considering going cash to protect from the drop I expected from the international [and national] disturbances. My stuff is now up from what it was in the beginning. I'm still edgy though. Hope I have enough discipline to beat the pull-back [if it occurs]. Who knows?
I'd expected the increased price of oil alone would clamp down the economy ~ and it may very well be doing so, but it doesn't seem to affect the bull market. I'm at a loss. I think that maybe there'll be a pull back followed by a strong recovery as the various social, economic and political problems get resolved ~ but I'm concerned that this may be a bubble ready to burst.
I'm in a strong B&H position and don't want to incur tax consequences and lose the dividend pay back ~ but also don't want to see the value of my stocks diminish too much. I'm glad for the moment that I didn't pull the trigger this week, but may regret it later.
I don't have the answer and I haven't seen any really relevant advice being passed around. This could be just a minor bump in the road or the beginning of a catastrophe. I'm approaching a fork in the road and will someday have to take it.
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 25, 2011 16:58:53 GMT -5
May be true that "the market climbs a wall of worry" and keeps us frustrated when it appears logical it should fall... which it will some day (just when is anyone's guess). Then we fret over just how far down and for how long? Seems a never-ending process. There is no easy path to make easy money in the market. There is no real safe harbor, just some temporary short term shelter every so often. I'm in the same B&H position as you for now. These are very uncertain times, the world and the weather are changing. Be prepared and go with the flow. Honestly, what else can do?  |
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Post by tyfighter3 on Feb 25, 2011 19:47:19 GMT -5
Right now I'm keeping my money is US Oil Company's that have at least 60% here.
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safeharbor37
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Post by safeharbor37 on Mar 3, 2011 12:02:33 GMT -5
This could be the beginning of a new bull market or a bear rally. How to tell?
I've talked to some who [think that they] are smarter than the rest of us who are [and have been for some time] predicting a stock market catastrophe of historic proportions. They have been good at predicting short term fluctuations, but my life experience is that things don't change that much ~ and, if one sticks to principles, history tends to repeat itself.
I haven't unloaded anything lately.
I did unload some stock that got me even for a previous investment, but, looking now, I find that the stock is now selling for the old high price and, if I'd held, I'd be even in those stocks without selling any others. I'm still ahead, but greed makes me regret that I pulled the trigger too soon.
I could sell now with a nice profit, but I'd lose the dividend flow. Oh well. I've been in a lot worse dilemmas. Time to count my blessings. There are still a lot of people out there hurting.
We are I believe, in a stage where the flat market growth of the last decade may be over and a new growth period may be beginning. The trick is to find a good buy point. I'm sitting on a lot [for me] of cash and wouldn't it be nice if I could buy in at the right time? I like to predict and consider the predictions of others. I'm usually wrong, but that doesn't discourage me. Sometimes, I'm right ~so~ just as long as I don't get hurt too bad when I'm wrong, the times I'm right will more than offset that.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2011 13:28:48 GMT -5
no idea which direction your guess is as good as mine... break-out is soon but which way? Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2011 10:50:11 GMT -5
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Mar 14, 2011 10:27:04 GMT -5
In view of world events.... DOWN. At least, near term. The psychological effect of current events may bring us down 10% or so. Hopefully, this will not be prolonged, lasting only a few days to weeks. But, we never can be certain of much of anything dealing with the market these days.
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safeharbor37
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Post by safeharbor37 on Mar 14, 2011 22:29:25 GMT -5
I think that the move to bonds has run its course and some are predicting that bonds are going to be rubbish soon. It seems with the Middle-East crisis, oil prices and now the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, is there anything else coming? or just what's happening getting worse. But the stock market is holding up ~ maybe the folks with the money have no better place to put it. Is that good or bad?
They say that Japan's been in a recession for over ten years ~ but they seem to be doing OK or does it just appear that way ~ is that the way we're going. If so, how does one prepare?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2011 9:48:00 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2011 9:50:17 GMT -5
thanks for sharing, Dan and thunder, show me, (i'm originally from Missouri) which one of these trading rules don't work? what are the correct win rates? these rules were free, no one here is trying to sell them.... perhaps rule based trading is what you guys don't like.... do you find buy and hope to be better??? ignoring 5, 15, and 50 moving average crosses will cost an investor money..... Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2011 17:06:26 GMT -5
Snip-its from another board i read: Cobra wrote: Well, that's it for today. I'm a little disappointed in bears, but the fighting is not over yet, so still hard to say. I'll see you tomorrow. Official: Japan's nuclear situation nearing severity of ChernobylAin't looking good tomorrow if there's a meltdown. people have been brainwashed with ideas like "buy the dip" "don't fight the fed" "QEx" "3rd year of presidential cycle" and it will take a while for fact to sink in, that is, if it could happen. Attachments:
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 16, 2011 23:14:54 GMT -5
Two stock ideas for the long term. (at least five years) JNJ and CL. Johnson and Johnson and Colgate Palmolive. Both are relatively SAFE and pay a great DIVIDEND. Both have had various short term issues that are really not relevant to the long term. I do own both and if I had extra funds that were not already in the market I would put in more. Colgate does look interesting, but J&J has been a loser for me. Dead money. Current management seems to be okay with all the damn recalls, and long time frames of product pulled from the market. Time for some new leadership there, before I believe there is a turnaround. |
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safeharbor37
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Post by safeharbor37 on Mar 25, 2011 12:27:22 GMT -5
"people have been brainwashed with ideas like:" "buy the dip."
Buy the dip is just half the Benjamin Graham's, "Buy low, sell high." It's usually possible to save at least one percent in purchasing a "growth" stock and much more on "value" stocks and....Don't forget Benjamin Franklin's, "A penny saved is a penny earned." There's usually a grain of truth in those "old' sayings ~ To be forewarned is to be forearmed, ya know?
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Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 28, 2011 0:19:59 GMT -5
Two stock ideas for the long term. (at least five years) JNJ and CL. Johnson and Johnson and Colgate Palmolive. Both are relatively SAFE and pay a great DIVIDEND. Both have had various short term issues that are really not relevant to the long term. I do own both and if I had extra funds that were not already in the market I would put in more. Colgate does look interesting, but J&J has been a loser for me. Dead money. Current management seems to be okay with all the damn recalls, and long time frames of product pulled from the market. Time for some new leadership there, before I believe there is a turnaround. WXYZ, JNJ has a long history and is selling at a discount to DFE... worth 122.99 per Value-pro I have cashed out of JNJ six or seven time.. Look at the base it built.. Long term buy..great value.. long term growth story...OK PEG = 2 but Discounted cash flow of 122.99 odds are good for the next 20 years... Just my thoughts, Bruce What would you compare it to.. PG?? PFE?? Attachments:
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Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 28, 2011 0:21:30 GMT -5
Colgate does look interesting, but J&J has been a loser for me. Dead money. Current management seems to be okay with all the damn recalls, and long time frames of product pulled from the market. Time for some new leadership there, before I believe there is a turnaround. WXYZ, JNJ has a long history and is selling at a discount to DFE... worth 122.99 per Value-pro I have cashed out of JNJ six or seven time.. Look at the base it built.. Long term buy..great value.. long term growth story...OK PEG = 2 but Discounted cash flow of 122.99 odds are good for the next 20 years... Just my thoughts, Bruce Sorry.. Wrong chart>>> wanted mutually Exclusive investments What would you compare it to.. PG?? PFE?? Attachments:
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