Do we call this, "Just in time unemployed numbers"

[Value Buy]

114,000 new jobs created, droppping the unemployment rate to 7.8%.
Yesterday they were saying even if the number hit the high end of 115,000 it would not drop the rate below 8%
Today, 1,000 extra jobs drop it well below 8%
Go figure.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the election in November......or maybe the huge extra number of people who fell off the unemployment rolls.

Either way, I am glad more people found work. Now they can pay their fair share of taxes.

[luckyme]

" In September, the number of part-time workers who would like full-time jobs surged by 582,000. That represents about two-thirds of the increase in employment last month and is larger than the drop in the number of unemployed. That’s why the U-6 stayed at 14.7% in September.

So, while more people are working according to the household survey, and that is an undisputed positive, the quality of those jobs remains in question. "


Is this good news? You can always find a way to play the numbers.


blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/

[skweet]

One of the numbers is off. It is less likely that the jobs number is off 700+ jobs, than it is likely the unemployement numbers are off that much. On 11/02, the numbers will come out again, likely correcting the highly volatile unemployment numbers, showing unemployment rising a historic 800k + workers, 7.8% to above 8% unemployed, in one month. Then we step in the ballot box 4 days later. If this is a blessing for the POTUS's campaign, it may be a curse in disguise.

[Deleted]

Unemployment is at a 4 year low, but the labor participation rate is down. So if the LPR was what it was when Obama took office unemployment rate would be over 10%.

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/this-is-no-jobs-recovery/2012/10/05/75174676-0eec-11e2-bb5e-492c0d30bff6_blog.html

[Deleted]

But labor participation did go UP last month at least...

I think the fact that the actually numbers upped the prior few months from the estimate helped...

[beags]

I am not going to credit the president for the jobs. I don't believe he had anything to do with it.

Before our current governor took office the unemployment rate was high in this state. Since he took office the jobs have started coming to this state. Now I don't agree with everything our governor did. Most people don't . . but he is keeping his promise of bringing jobs to our state, and he's doing it rather well. There are other states with very high unemployment numbers.

So I believe it is more a governor issue and not a president issue. In other words, the state should take credit or blame, not the nation. Our president likes to take credit for that of which he has not done .. . . and it doesn't matter who the president is . . another common factor.

[b2r]

CNBC Anchor Confronts Labor Sec. About Allegations Jobs Numbers Were ‘Fixed’: ‘I’m Insulted’


VIDEO

“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers,”

Jack Welch

www.theblaze.com/stories/cnbc-anchor-confronts-labor-sec-about-allegations-jobs-numbers-were-fixed-im-insulted/

104,000 private sector?

[Deleted]

So much spin, i'm finding it hard to isolate real numbers.

If private was under the total, that means public is not losing any more and is growing again, I wonder where / in what sectors? ...

[Deleted]

You think these jobs numbers really mean anything any more? I'm not saying Obama isn't the favorite to win, but people aren't idiots. This won't change their mind one way or another.

[Deleted]

I wasn't thinking of the contest actually, just wanted to better understand the jobs numbers...

[Deleted]

"If private was under the total, that means public is not losing any more and is growing again, I wonder where / in what sectors? ... "

The official report gives all these details, I think.

[Driftr]

Nice jobs report IMO. Hopefully the start of a nice trend.

[fairlycrazy23]

This should help Obama.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 9:03:08 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

114,000 new jobs created, droppping the unemployment rate to 7.8%.
Yesterday they were saying even if the number hit the high end of 115,000 it would not drop the rate below 8%
Today, 1,000 extra jobs drop it well below 8%
Go figure.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the election in November....

very doubtful.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 11:45:30 GMT -5 fairlycrazy23 said:

This should help Obama.

he is already stumping using it. heard it this morning.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 10:19:46 GMT -5 beags said:

I am not going to credit the president for the jobs. I don't believe he had anything to do with it.

then i assume you disagree with Mitt that unemployment has anything to do with him, as well?

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 9:41:45 GMT -5 luckyme said:

" In September, the number of part-time workers who would like full-time jobs surged by 582,000. That represents about two-thirds of the increase in employment last month and is larger than the drop in the number of unemployed. That’s why the U-6 stayed at 14.7% in September.

So, while more people are working according to the household survey, and that is an undisputed positive, the quality of those jobs remains in question. "


Is this good news? You can always find a way to play the numbers.


blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/

yes, it is good news. is it great news? of course not.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 10:20:55 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

That is correct oped. The numbers for the previous months were revised upward.

You can say what you will about the U-6, labor participation rate, job quality, etc., getting below the 8% threshhold is very good for the incumbant.

Remember, perception is what counts.

another thing to remember- this is the number most people watch. even Romney made it central to his closing remarks in the debate (a remark which he could now NOT USE).

[Driftr]

Oct 5, 2012 11:50:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 5, 2012 10:20:55 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

That is correct oped. The numbers for the previous months were revised upward.

You can say what you will about the U-6, labor participation rate, job quality, etc., getting below the 8% threshhold is very good for the incumbant.

Remember, perception is what counts.

another thing to remember- this is the number most people watch. even Romney made it central to his closing remarks in the debate (a remark which he could now NOT USE).

Well, in fairness to most people, it is the number that is most often reported. I may disagree that it's the most important, but it is the one we've been hearing on air since I can remember.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 11:53:09 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Oct 5, 2012 11:50:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

another thing to remember- this is the number most people watch. even Romney made it central to his closing remarks in the debate (a remark which he could now NOT USE).

Well, in fairness to most people, it is the number that is most often reported. I may disagree that it's the most important, but it is the one we've been hearing on air since I can remember.

well, i didn't claim it is the most important. but it IS the "most watched". kinda like FOX.

[djAdvocate]

here is what 538 said about the report:

The reported payrolls growth figure for September, 114,000 jobs, was incredibly close to consensus forecasts of about 115,000 jobs added. But everything else about the report considerably beat expectations. Jobs figures were revised upward by 40,000 in July, and by 46,000 in August. Combined with the jobs growth in September, that means the economy added 200,000 more jobs than we thought previously.

The unemployment rate is calculated through a separate survey — one of households rather than business establishments. The data from the household survey tends to be even noisier than that from the establishment survey.

But unlike last month, when a decline in the unemployment rate was caused by the exit of workers from the labor force, the household survey also reflected genuinely good news in September. According to that survey, 413,000 workers joined the labor force in September. But 873,000 more people became employed, causing the unemployment rate to fall to 7.8 percent.

[Driftr]

Oct 5, 2012 11:55:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 5, 2012 11:53:09 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Well, in fairness to most people, it is the number that is most often reported. I may disagree that it's the most important, but it is the one we've been hearing on air since I can remember.

well, i didn't claim it is the most important. but it IS the "most watched". kinda like FOX.

I suppose I should have started a new paragraph after my first sentence. I have a problem with those who report it considering it to be the most deserving of air time (ie most important). Actually, if it were up to me we'd hear about LFP each month.

[djAdvocate]

this might be a good time to mention that i said very early in this race that Obama would have a tough time if UE was over 8% on Election Day.

i trust that you can extrapolate.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 5, 2012 12:08:34 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Oct 5, 2012 11:55:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

well, i didn't claim it is the most important. but it IS the "most watched". kinda like FOX.

I suppose I should have started a new paragraph after my first sentence. I have a problem with those who report it considering it to be the most deserving of air time (ie most important). Actually, if it were up to me we'd hear about LFP each month.

i am sure that FOX and Romney will be switching to Labor Participation Rate, now. moving targets are always helpful when the stationary ones are taken down by hostile fire.

[fairlycrazy23]

U6 is still almost 15%

[Driftr]

Oct 5, 2012 12:09:59 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 5, 2012 12:08:34 GMT -5 Driftr said:

I suppose I should have started a new paragraph after my first sentence. I have a problem with those who report it considering it to be the most deserving of air time (ie most important). Actually, if it were up to me we'd hear about LFP each month.

i am sure that FOX and Romney will be switching to Labor Participation Rate, now. moving targets are always helpful when the stationary ones are taken down by hostile fire.

Good news for CNN and Obama is that LPR is may have teurned the corner as well.

[Deleted]

Romney, whose wife hasn't worked by choice in years and years, is going to pick on the labor partiicpation rate? .... If more mammas are choosing to stay home with their wee ones, how is that a bad thing for family values

[Driftr]

Oct 5, 2012 12:22:18 GMT -5 oped said:

Romney, whose wife hasn't worked by choice in years and years, is going to pick on the labor partiicpation rate? .... If more mammas are choosing to stay home with their wee ones, how is that a bad thing for family values

Great for family values.

Bad for deficits if we're going to continue putting out the same services with lower tax receipts.

[Deleted]

Oct 5, 2012 12:09:59 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 5, 2012 12:08:34 GMT -5 Driftr said:

I suppose I should have started a new paragraph after my first sentence. I have a problem with those who report it considering it to be the most deserving of air time (ie most important). Actually, if it were up to me we'd hear about LFP each month.

i am sure that FOX and Romney will be switching to Labor Participation Rate, now. moving targets are always helpful when the stationary ones are taken down by hostile fire.

I still consider U-3 a recently moved target as the recently "looked for work" stipulation was added to it during this administration. What would the % be if that wasn't changed and it was reported the same as all previous years.

[Driftr]

Oct 5, 2012 12:31:53 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Oct 5, 2012 12:09:59 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am sure that FOX and Romney will be switching to Labor Participation Rate, now. moving targets are always helpful when the stationary ones are taken down by hostile fire.

I still consider U-3 a recently moved target as the recently "looked for work" stipulation was added to it during this administration. What would the % be if that wasn't changed and it was reported the same as all previous years.

Really? I honestly didn't know that. Moving target indeed.