Hi Ho Silver!!!

[Bluerobin]

Ok, everyone look into your crystal balls and try to see how high silver will go. I was already to deplete my holdings around $34.00. By the time I headed to the vaults, the price had skyrocketed to over $40.00. $43.00 and change as I type.
Anyone have an idea of where silver is going?

[yclept]

Well, I've owned ZSL for awhile (2x short Ag) and have been punished by the market gods of shiny metal for doing so; obviously, I believe it to be in a bubble and expect it to fall precipitously -- I feel about my ZSL as Jefferson reportedly did about slavery:

Wolf by the ears

Thomas Jefferson used this phrase several times:

"But, as it is, we have the wolf by the ear, and we can neither hold him, nor safely let him go. Justice is in one scale, and self-preservation in the other."
- Thomas Jefferson to John Holmes, (discussing slavery and the Missouri question), Monticello, 22 April 1820.

I reckon I'm stubborn enough to hold on to those ears for awhile and stare right into the wolf's eyes (canines don't like direct eye contact -- remember that when you encounter a dog you haven't previously met).

Edit: Hmm, while I was typing that, ZSL went from $17.20 to $18; strange, metals usually go up when the stock market falls out of bed -- maybe the insanity of silver and gold prices has finally become too much for the market to bear. Every useful commodity (except energy) has crashed at some point over the last couple of years -- maybe it's the turn of the useless commodities to roll over and die.

[Bluerobin]

Well, silver dropped back under $43 - It could prove interesting. I suspect it is going to reach or surpass it's all time high. With physical silver, disposal is not a phone call away, so I am trying to anticipate.

[burger]

I was in AGQ (2x ETF) less than a year ago when it would trade between $50 and $70 very regularly. I bought in at $55 and got out at $65. Since then it has been on a tear and was as high as $297 this morning...oh what could have been.

[yclept]

One other observation; volume of ZSL in the last week has been two to three times as heavy as it was a few weeks ago, and the volume a few weeks ago was the highest the ETF had ever experienced -- somethin's up.

[yclept]

But ZSL fell back down -- now showing about a 2% loss on the day. Wonder if it's true that "every dog has his day" -- I've been waiting awhile for this one. But then, I guess that's what position sizing is all about -- the ability to give a position enough rope to hang itself.

[Value Buy]

Out of curiosity, and too lazy to go to the local pawn shop, what is the spread on silver between current market price, and what a pawn or jewelery shop will buy it from you for?
And on the flip side, what are they now charging you to buy it?
In January, I bought some silver, and had to pay $34 an oz when the "market price", was
$30, so I assume they had purchased the silver back at a much lower price, say, in $22 to $25 range.
Since I was not buying a large quantity, I assumed I was not hosed at the price.
Was I?
Now, I am thinking of selling, but do not want to be hosed when I sell it.

[Bluerobin]

Value Buy, depending on the shop and how rapidly the price is rising, I can sometimes sell for spot. The dealers I use, all deal in cash. Usually they tack on a dollar or two, depending on the quantity - generally it is the same whether buying or selling. The $4 premium does seem a bit high. I usually go with 10 oz sealed bars (to avoid assay fees), or scrap silver coins. I get my best deals with a guy I have gone to since I was a kid.

You can always negotiate the premium!

[Value Buy]

Kind of hard to see you selling at spot price. The shop needs some percentage, and they never know if the metal is topping out at that price.
Just did not think any shop would work on a 10% margin.
Thanks for the answer-I will be a lot more diligent next time. Thankfully, I am in the green on this issue anyway, but I will bet I cannot sell that close to "spot".

Or is spot price lower than the listed commodity price?
Are we talking about two different price points?

[Bluerobin]

Value Buy, the last time was near spot - we knocked off the pennies. I forget the price, but I added $10 and told the dealer, you know damn well that the price is going there and all you are going to do is call Dr. X and sell it to him. I didn't sell to Dr. X cause I don't like him and it is more fun if he has to pay the vig. Sure enough, the price did increase $10. I could easily convince him it is going to $50 now.
He probaly had the Doc on the phone as I crossed the street. I can hear the sales pitch now "Doctor, I just got 5 gorgeous 10 ounce silver bars. I can let them go for only $x.

[Value Buy]

Apr 18, 2011 8:50:20 GMT -5 Bluerobin said:

Ok, everyone look into your crystal balls and try to see how high silver will go. I was already to deplete my holdings around $34.00. By the time I headed to the vaults, the price had skyrocketed to over $40.00. $43.00 and change as I type.
Anyone have an idea of where silver is going?

Of course I don't!
But, after today's action, I think we are looking at mid fifties to sixty dollars.
This is getting scary.

[Bluerobin]

Value Buy, I am thinking so too! And at that price, I won't care about the vig!

[Value Buy]

Silver down to $45.19 down $2 this morning.
A blip, or have we hit the high?

[Bluerobin]

I think it is a blip, the dollar is still down. Probably just profit taking. It did hit $49 briefly on Monday.

[Driftr]

Apr 26, 2011 9:21:30 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Silver down to $45.19 down $2 this morning.
A blip, or have we hit the high?

I hope we've hit the high. I'll believe it when I see a rate hike, the Fed starting to decrease the size of it's balance sheet, and an honest road map to lower (dare I hope for zero) deficits. Heck, two of the three and I'd probably 'believe'.

[Value Buy]

Apr 26, 2011 10:10:28 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Apr 26, 2011 9:21:30 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Silver down to $45.19 down $2 this morning.
A blip, or have we hit the high?

I hope we've hit the high. I'll believe it when I see a rate hike, the Fed starting to decrease the size of it's balance sheet, and an honest road map to lower (dare I hope for zero) deficits. Heck, two of the three and I'd probably 'believe'.

Based on Driftr's statement, which is a wing and a prayer, of actually happening, the sky is the limit!

[Driftr]

;-)

[Small Biz Owner]

Silver, or more worthless paper money? Not a hard choice for me.

By the way. What good is a debt ceiling, if they keep raising it? Ceiling does not really exist, except in name only.

[Bluerobin]

Silver is back over $49 today. Saw a few pundits who claimed, buy, buy, buy.

[burger]

And back down it goes...

[Bluerobin]

Yep, on a down turn again and nothing has really changed.

[Bluerobin]

Looks like the bubble burst.

[burger]

Down again today. I wonder where it will stop. AGQ was at 380 last week. Today it is at 212. Lots of money to be made playing AGQ and ZSL...as long as you are on the right side of them.

[Driftr]

Good luck to anyone who plays the leveraged ETFs. I had some good luck in 2009 day-trading with TNA/TZA and FAS/FAZ. I had almost as much bad luck doing it in 2010. If you do it, know what your max loss is on each trade and stick to it. Trailing stops can be your best friend or worst enemy.

[yclept]

Bought ZSL (2X short Ag) yesterday at 18.8299 (mentioned on my other thread). So far, so good, it looks like I finally caught this sucker when it wanted to move my way. Right now I'm up 21.7% in the two days. Unfortunately (or fortunately, as it may eventually play out!), I only bought 200 shares.
I don't often use trailing stops (except when I go on vacation or will otherwise be away from the market for an extended time), but I'm beginning to think I better do so with this sucker. Hell, it could probably give it all back in the time it takes me to take a shower or cook breakfast -- both of which I'll be doing shortly!
Just put in a trailing stop at 78 cents, which is about 3%, but was also the 50 ma using 5-minute bars at the time I put the order in. In the time it took to type this the stop has moved up from 22.22 to 22.37.
My breakfast and shower probably will sell me out at some point. Fine with me, I can live with a 20%+ one-day gain, and if silver has really broken, I'll buy the position back later today or tomorrow at a higher price. It's coming down as insanely as it went up.

Edit: Hah, the trailing stop has had 20 updates in the time it took to type just that last paragraph -- madness!

Edit: changed trailing stop to 4% instead of th 78 cents; as the ticker continues to go up, the fixed amount becomes a smaller percentage of the price -- like I said above, I don't often use these trailing stops, but the fixed seemed less logical as I thought about it. Right now the stop is a little less than a buck below where the ETF is trading. It just changed to 22.94.

[Value Buy]

Just over $35 yesterday. Have we reached a new base for silver?

[Bluerobin]

VB, I am not sure what the heck is going on, but I am going to hold for a while. I did hear part of a report extolling the virtues of silver's conductivity, so that may be playing a role too.

[oreo]

So if you buy physical silver, what is the best way to buy it? Do you just buy old coins with silver in them or do you buy bars (and is there an extra charge or something)? I have never bought it before but was interested in buying some but I'm not sure where to start. I saw a coin dealer at the swap meet yesterday (he's there every week) and he had everything priced based on the purity and weight (not sure what per ounce amount he was charging but it was probably there). It seemed pretty complicated which is why bars seem like they'd be better maybe.

[Bluerobin]

oreo, I like 10 ounce silver bars, sealed in plastic, with the "manufacturer's" logo and number on them. 10 ounces is just small enough where buyers won't want to assay the silver before buying. The plastic wrap, logo and number add to the authenticity.
You will generally pay a buyer's premium of $1 to $2 per ounce. Sorta like a vig if you are a gambler. The dealer adds his take onto the price when buying or selling. When selling, if silver is going up, you can probably pay closer to spot.
Coins are a little more difficult. Scrap silver coins are 90% silver, and prices are based on the buyer's formula. My local guy would probably pay something like $100 per roll of 90% silver dimes at the present price, around $35 per ounce. On quarters he might go to $200 per roll.
With coins, there is also the possibility of numismatic value, so it gets more complicated. A $1 coin might be worth $50 on it's own, while the silver may be only worth $20. There is much more to know when you deal in coins.

[oreo]

So where do you buy the silver bars? Do you get them locally or from someone online?