Rail Reports and other Transport Indicators

[neohguy]

The weekly US railroad report for week 50 2010 was a dissapointment when compared to week 50, 2009 and week 50 2008. The RR's claim that bad weather was to blame. The commodity loading "Motor Vehicles" is down 17% when compared to the same week in 2009. That category is now down for eight weeks in a row:
www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2010/12/2010-12-22-railtraffic.aspx

"WASHINGTON, D.C. – Dec. 22, 2010 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported that U.S. railroads posted moderate gains in weekly rail intermodal traffic for the week ending Dec. 18, 2010, originating 220,187 trailers and containers, up 5 percent compared with the same week in 2009. Container volume increased 4.9 percent and trailer volume was up 5.2 percent. Rail carload traffic for the week totaled 271,709 carloads, flat when compared with the same week last year. The effects of blizzards throughout the Midwest were felt in weekly traffic numbers on U.S. railroads.

Twelve of the 19 carload commodity groups increased from the comparable week in 2009. Commodities posting double digit gains in loadings included: farm products excluding grain, up 46.5 percent; metals and products, up 16.9 percent; lumber and wood products, up 15.6 percent; stone, clay and glass products, up 14.5 percent; and coke, up 12 percent. Commodities reporting double digit declines were non-metallic minerals, down 24.6 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, down 17 percent; and primary forest products, down 10.3 percent....For the first 50 weeks of 2010, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,323,957 carloads, up 7 percent from last year, and 10,938,193 trailers or containers, up 14.1 percent from the comparison week in 2009...."

[bga4444]

Downward trend 8 weeks in a row is a trend...unless we had all bad weather this year and all good weather last year.LOL
Good to see you Neo looks like we are all looking for a new home!

[z]

Thanks for bringing your rail reports and trucking and shipping thread over here neohguy. 70% of our economy is consumption and that tells me that shipping and transport always plays a major role in the economic check of our economie's health.

[The Virginian]

Welcome to you BGA! Glad to see another friendly face over here!

Falling Sky - Now the Virginian

Neohguy, I was wondering if you would continue your thread here and now you've answered my question. It is very informative and thanks for the work you put into it.

[traelin0]

Indeed, my favorite thread other than O&G's on MT.

[neohguy]

Thanks everybody. Special thanks to Rovo, Cali, Duff, and other posters that got me interested about transports.

[awakeandobserving]

Neo---I got hooked on your RR thread and am so glad you're going to post over here. I have been able to get many of my friends, in many various professions, to pay attention to the information of these reports (esp the ones with their heads comfortably in the sand).

Traelin)--LOVE the Friberg print! and the Adams quote...pretty much sums up my current state of mind. That one will be added to my memo board, for daily review (right next to "an armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man is a subject").

[Virgil Showlion]

Any chance of getting a rolling Excel chart for transport figures in 2011, along with the details? Something that superimposes the present traffic with the traffic -12 mo?

Tell ya what. We can compromise. If I send you a utility that will construct the plot I want, with the data entered for the past year, would you continue to update the data and repost the results?

[neohguy]

Dec 27, 2010 13:46:29 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Any chance of getting a rolling Excel chart for transport figures in 2011, along with the details? Something that superimposes the present traffic with the traffic -12 mo?

Tell ya what. We can compromise. If I send you a utility that will construct the plot I want, with the data entered for the past year, would you continue to update the data and repost the results?

Sure. I think that is a good idea.

[Virgil Showlion]

Great. I'll get it to you sometime during the next week.

Busy week for me.

[neohguy]

Diesel and gasoline highest since October 2008:
www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=25816&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
Updated: 12/28/2010 9:00:00 AM
Diesel Finishes 2010 at Two-Year High $3.294
Gasoline Tops $3 for First Time in More Than 2 Years

Diesel’s national average pump price finished 2010 at a more than two-year high, gaining 4.6 cents Monday to $3.294 a gallon, while gasoline topped the $3 level for the first time since October 2008, the Department of Energy reported.

Gas jumped 7 cents to $3.052 a gallon, DOE said following its weekly surveys of filling stations.

The gains were fueled by soaring crude oil prices, with oil trading over $90 a barrel for the first time since October 2008, Bloomberg reported
Crude closed at $91.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday, the highest finishing price since Oct. 3, 2008, when it closed at $93.88 per barrel.

Diesel and gasoline also had not seen such high levels since October 2008 when coming off the historic highs of that summer, DOE records showed.

Trucking’s main fuel is at its highest level since the $3.482 national average of Oct. 20, 2008, while gas had not topped $3 since its $3.151 price on Oct. 13, 2008.

For both fuels, Monday’s prices mark the fourth straight week in which they have set two-year-high records, and in diesel’s case it is the fifth in seven weeks.

Each week, DOE surveys about 350 diesel filling stations to compile a national snapshot average price.

[neohguy]

A very strong week for rails that included Christmas. loadings (less intermodal) were +29% over 2009, +28% over 2008, and up so very slightly over 2007. All of the comparisons are Christmas weeks. The loading "Motor Vehicles and Equipment" was up 14% for the week vs 2009, breaking the eight straight weeks of decline. Intermodal (truck trailers and shipping containers) was also up substantially for the week when compared to 09, 08, 07.
www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2010/12/2010-12-30-railtraffic.aspx
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Dec. 30, 2010 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported weekly rail traffic posted strong gains over 2009 for the holiday week ending Dec. 25, 2010, with U.S. freight railroads originating 256,098 carloads, up 29.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal traffic for the week totaled 177,249 trailers and containers, up 25.1 percent compared with the same week in 2009, with container volume up 24.2 percent and trailer volume up 29.9 percent. Both the current week and the comparison week from 2009 included the holiday, however, Christmas 2010 fell on a Saturday while Christmas 2009 fell on a Friday.

Seventeen of the 19 carload commodity groups increased from the comparable week in 2009 with all posting double digit gains in loadings. Those carload commodity groups posting increases of over 50 percent included: metallic ores, up 65 percent, and crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 55 percent. Commodities reporting declines were non-metallic minerals, down 18.7 percent, and grain mill products, down 2 percent.
Carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 33.3 percent compared with last year. In the West, carload volume was up 27.2 percent compared with the same week in 2009.

For the first 51 weeks of 2010, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,580,055 carloads, up 7.3 percent from last year, and 11,115,442 trailers or containers, up 14.3 percent from the comparison week in 2009.

Canadian railroads reported volume of 67,334 cars for the week, up 21.5 percent from last year, and 39,108 trailers or containers, up 28 percent from 2009. For the first 51 weeks of 2010, Canadian railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,729,258 carloads, up 16.9 percent from last year, and 2,408,743 trailers or containers, up 15.7 percent from last year.

Mexican railroads reported originated volume of 12,948 cars, up 20.8 percent from the same week last year, and 5,656 trailers or containers, up 3.6 percent. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first 51 weeks of 2010 was reported as 701,439 carloads, up 18.1 percent from last year; and 347,909 trailers or containers, up 22.3 percent.

Combined North American rail volume for the first 51 weeks of 2010 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 19,010,752 carloads, up 9.4 percent from last year, and 13,872,094 trailers and containers, up 14.7 percent from last year.

The AAR has announced several changes to certain carload commodity groups reported in the Weekly Rail Traffic Report that will take effect in Week 1 of 2011. Commodity Group 18, Waste and Scrap Materials, will be split into two groups, Iron and Steel Scrap (Group 18) and Waste and Nonferrous Scrap (Group 19). Commodity Group 19 will be renumbered to Commodity Group 20. Crude Petroleum will be moved from the new Commodity Group 20 to Commodity Group 13, Petroleum Products. Finally, Distiller’s Dried Grains will be moved from Commodity Group 8 to Commodity Group 7, Grain Mill Products. Rail traffic data for 2010 will be restated to maintain consistency for the year-to-year comparison.


For individual freight loadings:
www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2010/12/~/media/aar/weekly_traffic_reports/2010/2010-12-30-wtr.ashx

[neohguy]

Wheat woes continue:
www.greatlakes-seawaynews.com/
World Wheat Market in Turmoil on Australian Flood Concerns
Monday, January 3, 2011 at 11:17AM
Heavy rains over a period of several weeks have inundated huge areas of eastern Australian farmland damaging or destroying millions of tons of Australia's hard red winter wheat crop and sending the world wheat market into further turmoil during one of the most tumultuous wheat marketing years in history.
Monsoonal rains throughout much of Queensland and parts of New South Wales have created areas of flooding which are estimated to be the size of Germany and France combined. Even ahead of the latest rain storms, Australia was experiencing its wettest spring on record. The wet weather has already done severe damage to the crop quality in the world's fourth largest wheat exporter, sparking global supply concerns and pushing up both hard and soft wheat prices. U.S. wheat futures rose to a five-month high by trading three percent higher in trading earlier today.

Crop analysts at Australian Crop Forecasters predict that as much as 10 million tonnes or more than 40 percent of the Australian wheat crop would be downgraded from milling wheat to grains fit for animal feed.

The news from Australia adds to the list of concerns about the global wheat crop that have dogged the market for most of the 2010-2011 wheat marketing year which runs from June1-May 31. Wheat prices started surging last summer after severe drought and wildfires in Russia and the Black Sea region decimated the crop there. Russia enacted a ban on wheat exports which was originally to run through the end of December, but has been extended until the end of June 2011.

Canada, another major world wheat exporter, also had problems with its wheat crop after wet weather there damaged the quality of its usually high-quality crop. In recent weeks, relatively dry weather in the central U.S. have caused concern over the size of this year's U.S. hard red winter wheat crop in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma.

While the both the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System and the northern parts of the Mississippi River system are currently closed for winter maintenance work, it seems likely that both systems will be busy satisfying demand for wheat exports when they re-open in the spring.

[neohguy]

www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=25856&utm_source=express&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
Surface transportation trade among the United States, Canada and Mexico rose 14.9% in October from a year earlier, the Department of Transportation said Wednesday.

Trade among the North American Free Trade Agreement partners rose to $70.6 billion, DOT’s Bureau of Trade Statistics said in its monthly report.

Freight trade value improved 3.3% from September, DOT said, noting that month-to-month changes are affected by seasonal factors.

U.S.-Canada trade rose 12.2% to $40.7 billion. The value of truck imports to the U.S. rose 11.6%, while truck exports gained 13.7%.

U.S.-Mexico trade improved 18.8% to $29.9 billion. Truck imports were 17.2% higher than a year ago and exports rose 13.8%.

Surface transportation consists largely of freight movements by truck, rail and pipeline. Almost 90% of U.S. trade among NAFTA partners moves by land.

[neohguy]

From the Duluth News Tribune:
www.boatnerd.com/
Taconite production doubles on the Iron Range in 2010

1/5 - Duluth, Minn. – It was a good year for taconite mining on the Iron Range. Production levels in 2010 were just below those during the peak year of 2008 and more than double those recorded in the recession year of 2009. A new era in iron mining is becoming more established on the Range, with new plants such as Magnetation and Mesabi Nugget using new technologies to produce iron for steel, and construction under way at the new Essar Steel Minnesota operation.

Minnesota Department of Revenue engineering specialist Bob Wagstrom said 2011 should see production levels around the same as those for 2006 through 2008, when it ranged around 38 million to 39 million tons.

“It’s good to see that back up again,” Wagstrom told the Mesabi Daily News.

Wagstrom projected 2010 production at 34.3 million tons, compared with 17.1 million tons in 2009, with higher output from each taconite plant on the Range. Plants in 2010 paid a production tax of $2.36 per ton, in lieu of any property taxes.

Tax revenues from the new-era iron producers will begin accruing soon, Wagstrom said. They include Mesabi Nugget, which uses a unique process to produce nuggets that are 95 percent iron compared to 60 percent to 65 percent for concentrated taconite pellets, and Magnetation, which reclaims iron ore from older-era iron tailings stockpiles.

At one point in spring and summer 2009, none of the six taconite plants on the Range was in production.

“2010 was much improved,” said Craig Pagel, president of the Iron Mining Association of Minnesota. “As the recession ended, and steel demand increased, it was good to see all the taconite mines up and running.” .....

[traelin0]

Hey neo, color me an ignoramus with respect to Transport Indicators, but does the Baltic Dry Index play into this at all? I was reading somewhere that it's collapsing again.

What are your thoughts?

[neohguy]

Jan 5, 2011 22:55:00 GMT -5 @traelin0 said:

Hey neo, color me an ignoramus with respect to Transport Indicators, but does the Baltic Dry Index play into this at all? I was reading somewhere that it's collapsing again.

What are your thoughts?

You are not an ignoramus. I read about the BDI everyday and it is difficult for professionals to make heads or tails out of it. Ships were ordered five years ago when the economy was booming and now there is a huge surplus of capacity.
Shipping tycoons are a strange bunch. They blame the other guy for not scrapping some of the excess capacity. More ships are scheduled to come online in 2011/2012.
Another problem affecting them is China, and other Asian countries, developing their industrial capacity. Chemicals that used to ship from the Gulf of Mexico are now being manufactured in Asia. China will develop anything that can be produced domestically. They are learning from the mistakes the west has made by outsourcing.
The Hellenic Shipping News is an excellent daily online publication (free makes it excellenter) for reading stories about the BDI. Interesting articles about the US and other nations economy can be found under the heading "world Economy". I've found the stories to be more informative than the WS hype that is fed to our domestic "news" agencies. I would be very interested in any posters opinion about this transport.
This is the link to The Hellenic Shipping News:

www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php

[Deleted]

The Baltic dirty tanker index fell 2.6% but rising or falling super tanker hire costs seems to have none if any effect on oil prices.

[traelin0]

Thanks for the link, neo!

[neohguy]

The Association of American Railroads released their final weekly report for 2010 yesterday. The report notes that freight car loadings were up 7.3% when compared to 2009 but down ~10% when compared to 2008. I compared the final 2010 numbers to 2007 and found that they were down ~13% when compared to 2007.
The loading intermodal (truck trailers and shipping containers) was up 14.2% when compared to 2009, down ~2% when compared to 2008, and down ~7.5% when compared to 2007.
All commodity loadings were up when compared to 2009 but down when compared to 2008 and 2007. A little from the summery page:
www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2011/01/06-railtraffic.aspx
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 6, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported an increase in weekly rail traffic for the post-holiday week ending Jan. 1, 2011, with U.S. freight railroads originating 240,073 carloads, up 5.6 percent compared with the same week in 2009. Intermodal traffic for the week totaled 166,894 trailers and containers, up 11.9 percent compared with the same week in 2009, with container volume up 10.9 percent and trailer volume up 18.1 percent.

For the full 52 weeks of 2010, U.S. railroads originated 14,820,128 carloads, up 7.3 percent from last year, but down 10 percent from 2008. Cumulative intermodal traffic totaled 11,282,336 trailers and containers, up 14.2 percent from 2009, but down 1.9 percent when compared with 2008. A complete summary of the annual rail traffic data will be included in the January 2011 Rail Time Indicators report which will be released by AAR on Monday, January 10, 2011.

"Rail traffic growth in 2010 is clearly a positive development, and reflects a growing economy as well as solid, dependable service on the part of the railroads," said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. "However, this growth is certainly slower than any of us would like, and rail traffic still has a long way to go to full recovery."

The bold was by me. The following report also has final data for Canadian, Mexican, and US railroads:
www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2011/01/~/media/aar/weekly_traffic_reports/2011/2011-01-06-railtraffic.ashx

[neohguy]

www.lcaships.com/
Lake Carriers’ Association represents 18 American companies that operate 55 U.S.-flag vessels on the Great Lakes and carry the raw materials that drive the nation’s economy: iron ore and fluxstone for the steel industry, aggregate and cement for the construction industry, coal for power generation.... Collectively, these vessels can transport more than 115 million tons of cargo per year when high water offsets lack of adequate dredging. More information is available at www.lcaships.com.
CLEVELAND—Iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes totaled 5,013,621 net tons in December, an increase of more than 11 percent compared to a year ago. Loadings were also virtually tied with the month’s 5-year average.
For the year the Great Lakes iron ore trade totaled 54.4 million tons, an increase of 67 percent compared to 2009. Shipments from U.S. ports rose 67.8 percent compared to a year ago. Loadings at Canadian ports finished 62 percent ahead of last year’s pace.
The 2010 total was slightly off the 5-year average. Loadings were down 2 percent compared to the average for the years 2005-2009.
CLEVELAND—Coal shipments on the Great Lakes totaled 2,966,286 net tons in December, an increase of 27 percent compared to a year ago. However, loadings remained 18 percent below December’s 5-year average.
For the year, the Great Lakes coal trade totaled 32 million tons, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2009. Loadings at Lake Superior ports were virtually unchanged from 2009. Shipments from Chicago increased 18 percent. The largest increase collectively came at Ohio’s Lake Erie loading ports of Toledo, Sandusky and Ashtabula: 20.3 percent.
Despite the improvement over 2009, the Lakes coal trade still has yet to fully rebound to previous levels. 2010 loadings were more than 21 percent below the 5-year average.
Lakes Limestone Trade Up Nearly 19 Percent in 2010
Cleveland—Shipments of limestone on the Great Lakes totaled 1,039,924 tons in December, an increase of 37.7 percent compared a year ago. However, the trade was down more than 40 percent compared to the month’s 5-year average.
For the year the Lakes limestone trade totaled 27.9 million tons, an increase of 18.6 percent compared to 2009. Shipments from U.S. stone quarries rose 20 percent to 22.3 million tons. Loadings at Canadian quarries increased 13.4 percent to 5.5 million tons.
2010’s rebound was not enough to restore the stone trade to previous levels. Shipments were 16.3 percent off the trade’s 5-year average, and nearly 30 percent below the volume recorded in 2006.

[neohguy]

Coking coal, an important ingredient for steal making, and thermal coal may be in short supply in coming weeks for many Asian steelmakers. Australia is an important supplier of coking coal and production has been interrupted because of severe flooding. The floods have also damaged Australia's wheat crop. Australia is a major exporter of wheat.
Sunday, 09 January 2011 00:00
ASIAN steelmakers are watching warily as floodwaters choke off vital coal supplies from Australia. Many of the steelmakers say production is set for now but could stumble if mining outages persist.

Mining companies slowed by flooding in Queensland are turning to their stockpiles of coking coal -- which is used to make steel -- in the absence of new mine production. But energy-consulting firm Wood Mackenzie has warned that those stockpiles were likely to be exhausted beginning next week.

....Even if the industry avoids major production interruptions, coal prices are expected to climb, impacting steelmaker profits and putting upward pressure on prices for consumers.
Disruption to mining and transportation could drive prices of spot hard coking coal up to $US350 a tonne from current levels of around $US250 a tonne, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a report.
Spot long steel prices in Mumbai have risen nearly 11 per cent from a month ago to 27,700 rupees a tonne, or about $US612.50.
Asian steelmakers have declined to discuss price specifics but said cost pressures will likely be felt industrywide......

[neohguy]

Today's article in The Hellenic Shipping news explains why the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the going rate/day of bulk carrier ships, is a difficult measurement of the state of the economy at this time. The current economy is better than what it was 12-18 months ago but the BDI is down because ship owners are buying more ships than what is needed at this time.
www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2200:a-weak-economical-recovery-and-flurry-of-new-ships-to-dampen-shipping-rates-in-2011&catid=45:top-story-a&Itemid=105
A weak economical recovery and flurry of new ships to dampen shipping rates in 2011
Monday, 10 January 2011 00:00
As 2010 ended, concerns about most shipping industry’s segments began mounting with evidence of a weak economical recovery further deteriorating hopes of a swift recovery of freight rates. According to BIMCO’s newest analysis from Peter Sand, global recovery is now appearing to be losing momentum, as the macroeconomic drivers behind the economic recovery,
such as giant stimulus packages, are being phased out and traditional concerns about inflation, deflation and economic overheating are challenging national and international economists.
This coupled with a mountain of new ships arriving this year as well, don’t mean good times for ship owners across the board. “All of the main shipping segments, be it dry bulkers, tankers or container ships are facing a wall of new ships to be delivered in 2011. This comes back-to-back to the biggest delivery year ever, 2010. The dry bulk segment is forecast to be hit the most, as BIMCO predicts that the fleet will grow by as much as 14% in 2011. For tankers and containerships the fleet is forecast to grow not less than 8%.
Supply growth in all segments is biased toward the bigger ships, which is illustrated by the ratio: order book to active fleet. This ratio for Capesize vessels — which are the largest dry bulk ships — is 67%. For Very Large Crude Carriers the ratio is 38%, while large container ships that are able to carry more than 8,000 TEU have a ratio of 95%. Normally, this ratio is around 20% for bulker and tanker fleets and around 30% for the container ship fleet. Despite healthy demand growth forecasts across the board, the main short- and medium term challenge for the industry remains oversupply of tonnage” said Peter Sand.
When it comes to dry bulk shipping, once more it’s all in the hands of China. “For 2011, total dry bulk demand is forecast to grow by 7%, slowing down from the demand hike of 9% in 2010. The solid demand picture in a relatively stable market has seen owners returning to the yards to sign many new contracts. This happens only a year after owners ran to the yards to renegotiate all contracts in order to avoid receiving the vessels that were already on order.
A new Capesize vessel was launched every second day during 2010 and this is expected to continue in 2011 and 2012. Even with dry bulk demand from the US and Europe to supplement the demand from China, the fundamental balance between supply and demand – in particular the Capesize segment – is about to stay “in favour of charterers” for the coming years. This is a result of the industry’s buying spree two years ago before the financial crisis severely slashed sea trade.
Going forward, the dry bulk market will continue its heavy reliance on Chinese demand: a demand that has been so strong in 2009 and 2010 that trade balances have been skewed more than normal and congestion in ports located in the main loading and discharge areas has been severe. The velocities of the Capesize freight rates movements are expected to continue going into 2011. Meanwhile, the smaller segments are predicted to be in more smooth waters than the bigger vessel types, as the inflow of new tonnage in these segments is less dramatic and the commodities which they transport are more diversified” concluded Mr. Sand.
As for tankers, the analysis states that demand in the Eastern hemisphere has proved solid, with China emerging as a large importer of crude oil. The overall trend is clear; it is very positive that Asian demand has grown and will continue to grow, but the oil thirst in the East is not strong enough to offset the lower consumption in the West. This is due to fewer tonnes-miles. “While the winter markets could prove to be a pause for breath for tankers in the short run, it seems likely that tanker freight rates will remain a bit under the weather in 2011. For 2011, the crude segment remains the better half of tanker shipping as the product segments are still heavily affected by the weak demand from the main consuming areas, as well as oversupply. When Western demand growth eventually returns, tanker demand will look strong again as Eastern demand is unlikely to slow down any time soon. Whether the strong tanker demand will also give higher rates is also dependent on the fleet development.
However, the underlying trend is more challenging for crude oil tankers than product oil tankers. The business is developing towards higher growth in oil products transports than crude oil transports, as refineries have been and are being built closer to the oil well today than 20 years ago” said BIMCO.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

[neohguy]

More BDI woes:
www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3328:dry-bulk-fleet-developments-in-2010&catid=46:top-story-b&Itemid=151
The dry bulk fleet expanded rapidly in 2010. After allowing for scrappings, conversions, sinkings and other removals there was a net growth of 830 ships amounting to an additional 77 Mdwt. In terms of deadweight this was an expansion of an unprecedented 17.7% or 12.7% in terms of numbers of ships.
At the 1st January the dry bulk fleet (above 10,000 dwt) stood at 7,365 ships of some 511 Mdwt. Despite the highest level of deliveries ever seen in 2010 (some 907 ships of 38.1 Mdwt) it seems as if the fleet could expand even faster this year with a scheduled delivery this year of over 1,600 ships of 138 Mdwt. Slippage last year amounted to 37% meaning that 63% of those ships scheduled to be delivered at the start of 2010 actually were delivered by year end. If a similar slippage rate is seen this year it still implies deliveries of around 1,000 ships.

[neohguy]

Although the St Lawrence Seaway is closed for the season, inter lake commerce still struggles to keep going with the assistance of US and Canadian coast guard ice cutters. I wonder who pays the bills?
www.boatnerd.com/
Cutters continued to escort traffic Tuesday on St. Clair River

1/19 - Tuesday began with Canadian Enterprise upbound on Lake St. Clair, with the Canadian Coast Guard ship Samuel Risley awaiting its arrival in the lower St. Clair River. The U.S. Coast Guard's Mackinaw, Neah Bay and Bristol Bay had stopped for the night off Algonac, Mich.

Enterprise passed upbound under escort and reached Marine City at 2:15 a.m. She continued upbound while the Risley stopped to wait for the downbound Presque Isle. Presque Isle arrived off Marine City at 7 a.m. and was assisted by the Risley before becoming stopped in the ice off Algonac at 7:30 a.m. About 8:15 a.m. the U.S. icebreakers left their berths and joined in the effort.

Mackinaw headed down into the lower river to break a track while the Neah and Bristol Bay assisted the Risley. At 10 a.m., Presque Isle cleared the Cut Off Channel while the Mackinaw was breaking ice near Marine City and the Bay class tugs were breaking in the South and Cut Off channels.

Risley continued downbound to meet the tug Everlast and Norman McLeod upbound on Lake St. Clair, followed by Algoeast. Both vessel required close escort by the Risley, Mackinaw and Bristol Bay. They cleared Marine City about 3:30 p.m.

Mackinaw worked the lower river with track maintenance until required to escort the upbound CSL Assiniboine, the escort began off Harsen's Island about 8 p.m. At 10 p.m. the solo escort by the Mackinaw continued off Algonac with slow progress. Once clear of the ice the Mackinaw continued upbound and was expected to dock in Port Huron at the Bean Dock for the night. Risley had returned to Sarnia after a stop at the Lambton Coal Dock.

Neah Bay departed down Tuesday afternoon, tying up in Detroit at 2 p.m. Bristol Bay stopped at Algonac about 4 p.m.

On Lake Erie, the Griffon and USCGC Hollyhock kept busy with escorts on the west end of the lake. Hollyhock returned upbound escorting the Assiniboine and ended the escort at Windsor, Ont. where they would remain for the night.

[neohguy]

The supply of huge ocean going ships is increasing at an alarming rate. The cost for heavy oil (bunker) fuel and depressed shipping rates have resulted in some ship owners to reduce speed so as to save fuel. Some customers have a problem with that. The shipping industry is hoping that rising scrap prices will convince ship owners to recycle their older ships. 25-30 yo is an old ship for salt water. Great Lakes ships and tugs may remain in service for up to 100 yrs.
www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3698:world-shipping-fleet-grows-by-101-in-deadweight-tonnage-during-2010&catid=45:top-story-a&Itemid=105
World shipping fleet grows by 10.1% in deadweight tonnage during 2010
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 00:00
According to a new research from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the world’s shipping fleet in service has grown by 10.1% in terms of carrying capacity, and amounts 1.39 billion tones compared to 1.26 billion tones in 2009. The largest year on year increase was evidenced in the dry bulk sector with a 15.6% increase which has pushed the dry bulk carrying capacity to 623mil tons compared to 539 million tons in 2009.

The Tanker sector increased by 6% and has 514mil tons compared to 484mil tons in 2009. The Container sector increased by 7.4% & sums 186mil dwt, 160mil GT, 14.2mil TEU, compared to 174mil dwt, 148mil GT & 13.3mil TEU in 2009. These ships on order compared to the 6727 ships that construed the orderbook one year ago, are 14.2% in terms of ships and 7% in terms of carrying capacity dwt.
“The active and in service World Shipping Fleet of all major sectors, as at end of 2010, consists of 45,092 ships, divided in Bulkers, Tankers, Containers, Gas Carriers, RoRo, Reefers and Car Carriers. At the same time the same group of vessels in Jan 2010 amounted to slightly less total of 44,293 units, and the deliveries of new ships from the vast orderbook, minus some serious scrapping, and the phase out process of tankers, have increased the world active fleet by 799 ships or 127.5 million tons. The world active fleet in all shiptypes has increased by nearly 10.1% in terms of carrying capacity. This is a serious annual increase in the supply of ships, always considering that despite a vast number of deliveries the orderbook has remained practically unchanged!!!” said the report....

[Virgil Showlion]

Neoh, the HSN article is big on figures explaining precisely where and how the fleet has expanded, but it provides no insights as to why.

We've been watching the Baltic Dry scraping the bottom in 2010, and yet the fleet is growing like a new continent has been discovered?

[neohguy]

Jan 19, 2011 13:33:06 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Neoh, the HSN article is big on figures explaining precisely where and how the fleet has expanded, but it provides no insights as to why.

We've been watching the Baltic Dry scraping the bottom in 2010, and yet the fleet is growing like a new continent has been discovered?

The ship owners are betting on the Asian economies to have double digit expansion forever and the western economies will return to "normal" growth. Due to the long lead times for obtaining funds for construction to completion of construction, they tend to want to be on the safe side and order early.
There is a lot of money out there chasing investments. Ship owners are able to get funding for new construction at very favorable rates. They are taking advantage of this cheap money. Steel is not getting cheaper so they are trying to lock in prices.

[Virgil Showlion]

All... *sigh*... surprisingly worthy reasons. I suppose we shouldn't fault them for their optimism or their pragmatism.

Thanks for the explanation neoh.

Incidentally, I haven't forgotten about the shipping app we spoke about, it's just I've been free-time-busy with a major new addition to MarketTalk (hopefully to be unveiled tonight or tomorrow. )

[neohguy]

Great Lakes Shipping is a small economic indicator as far as the world goes but it is a major indicator for the health of the manufacturing industry for the region fka the rust belt.
The past couple of years it has tracked pretty close to the US manufacturing.
The Lake Carriers Association released its annual summery for 2010 yesterday. The report shows improvement over 2009 but it must be remembered that 2009 was the worst year for Great Lakes tonnage since the 1930's. I find that interesting because there were folks on this board in 2007 and early 2008 that said that we will be experiencing a recession that would be the the worst, or exceed, the depression of the 1930's. They were ridiculed back then, as they are today, but it turns out they were correct and the head in the clouds optimists were wrong.
I usually refrain from making predictions and I never provide time frames but imo we are in the 4th inning of the first game of a double header and the economic trend for 75% of US citizens is down:
www.lcaships.com/usf1210-text.pdf
20325 Center Ridge Rd., Ste. 720 ċ Rocky River, Ohio 44116-3572 ċ Fax: [phone] ċ www.lcaships.com
The Associat ion Represent ing Operators of U.S. -Flag Vessels on the Great Lakes
AMERICAN STEAMSHIP COMPANY „^ ANDRIE, INC. „^ ARMSTRONG STEAMSHIP COMPANY „^ BELL STEAMSHIP COMPANY „^ CENTRAL MARINE LOGISTICS, INC.
GRAND RIVER NAVIGATION COMPANY, INC. „^ GREAT LAKES FLEET / KEY LAKES, INC. „^ INLAND LAKES MANAGEMENT, INC. „^ THE INTERLAKE STEAMSHIP COMPANY
KK INTEGRATED SHIPPING „^ LAKE MICHIGAN CARFERRY SERVICE, INC. „^ LAKES SHIPPING COMPANY, INC. „^ PERE MARQUETTE SHIPPING COMPANY
PORT CITY MARINE SERVICES „^ PORT CITY STEAMSHIP SERVICES „^ SOO MARINE SUPPLY, INC. „^ UPPER LAKES TOWING COMPANY, INC. „^ VANENKEVORT TUG & BARGE, INC.
Lake Carriers¡¦ Association
For Immediate Release
January 19, 2011
U.S.-Flag Laker Cargos Up 33.4 Percent in 2010
CLEVELAND¡XU.S.-flag Great Lakes freighters (¡§lakers¡¨) carried 88.7 million tons of dry-bulk cargo in 2010, an increase of 33.4 percent over 2009. Shipments were, however, nearly 10 percent off the industry¡¦s 5-year average, a fact that reinforces that the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the recession.The largest increase came in iron ore cargos for the steel industry. Shipments in U.S. bottoms totaled 42 million tons, an increase of 75 percent compared to 2009. Again, however, the rebound has to be put in perspective. In 2009 iron ore shipments from ports fell to their lowest level since 1938.Coal cargos carried in U.S.-flag hulls totaled 21.5 million tons, an increase of 4.1 percent compared to 2009, but fell short of the trade¡¦s 5-year average by almost 13 percent.
Shipments of limestone (aggregate and fluxstone) totaled 20.4 million tons, an increase of 19.6 percent over 2009. However, the 2010 total was nearly 18 below the trade¡¦s 5-year average.
Cement cargos slipped by about 80,000 tons. Salt loadings increased by 130,000 tons. Sand cargos dipped slightly, and grain loadings were a virtual repeat of 2009.
Lake Carriers¡¦ Association represents 18 American companies that operate 55 U.S.-flag vessels on the Great Lakes that carry the raw materials that drive the nation¡¦s economy: iron ore and fluxstone for the steel industry, aggregate and cement for the construction industry, coal for power generation.... Collectively, these vessels can transport more than 115 million tons of cargo per year when high water offsets lack of adequate dredging. More information is available at www.lcaships.com.
Source: Lake Carriers¡¦ Association.