Europe in a Financial Crisis

[Driftr]

Jun 19, 2012 8:13:20 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Where is drifters message? This board is doing some unusual things!

I asked Virgil to delay the posting on that one to add suspense.

J/K. ;-)

[The Virginian]

It must be nice to have that much power! ;D

[Driftr]

Jun 20, 2012 9:54:31 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

It must be nice to have that much power! ;D

Only in my own mind brother. Only there.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 15, 2012 2:52:44 GMT -5 @patstab said:

I have lots of home canned food but also 2 freezers. However if the electric was off for long I can can all the food. Have plenty of extra canning jars, propane, wheat for flour, guns, but limited ammo. We aren't preppers but I agree it never hurts to be prepared. We are fortunate, we had one well, but I added one, not knowing how deep our 30 year old one is and all the droughts so we have plenty of water.

Few years back when the big hurricane hit Houston we were without power for a week, the generator came in handy. But we almost ran out of gas before it was over I had about 50 gallons and more in the vehicle tanks, we were reduced to siphoing to keep it running. Finally one station was open and I sat in line forever to get 4 cans or 20 gallons. Some people were getting upset and saying people were hoarding gas, I explained we were running a generator. If it had gone on much longer it would have gotten dicey, generators even run only so many hours a day use quite a bit of gas..

There were vehicles out of gas stranded north on I 45 far as the eye could see and just plain gridlock. It was an incredible sight. Looked like one of those end of world movies until they finally got everything moving again. I had talked my husband into buying a generator, he laughed at me about it. Wouldn't even put oil in it for sometime but finally did. He was out of the country when it hit but he had wired it into the house for me so we had lights, running water from our well, electric for lights and fridge. couldn't run my w/d as they have electronics. And yes we have it set up so the first thing I do is disconnect it from the power grid so as not to backfeed and electrocute a lineman. It did stay not to hot for quite a few days so I ran fans it wouldn't run my central air. My tenant is very handy and fixed me up a TV and small antenna for one TV. We had hot water could bathe, cook and everything. None of our neighbors had any lights, but after that anytime we had outages you now hear generators all over.

We had electrical line workers out here from Canada and rebuilt our system. A tornado spun off did additional damage out here so it was quite a mess. That's the kind of thing I'm prepared for.
So every hurricane season I stock up on fuel, getting ready to do so now as we are in the seaon. I was waiting for the fuel to go down a bit more but i think its time to go ahead and buy it as oil seems to be going up again. I will put Staboil in it. You don't have to be a prepper to take precautions. I'm not sure but think we could eat for well over a month, maybe two for just the 2 of us and the animals. I keep food stocked for them too.

Those damn Canadians eh pat? I was going to respond to this on your preppers thread but I missed that so I will post here. My goal is to have a set up like my Grandpa did. 2-3 acres of garden and lots of fruit trees all over a 5 acre yard site. He had a few quarters so he had big fuel tanks that he could write off. I'm thinking about just renting the land and getting one tractor and a few big tanks for the yard..

He had a sweet cold room with tons of canned food and fresh jams, ect..

For now though it just the regular. Go to the store and stock up on canned food, fresh food and staples. Enough for the 2 weeks for fresh/frozen we keep on hand. And enough for the month and a bit of canned we keep on hand. I guess it could stretch out in the event of necessity.

Pat, a lot of the countries that have "failed" before, still exists today. All those countries were also filled with slaves, basically. Social programs aren't the only reason the US has made it, social programs have held us all back as a society. They won't get cut all at once, and the programs will be replaced with jobs while this happens. Will it take a long time, yep!

[The Virginian]

I always thought it would be nice to have some acreage with Nut Trees as some extra income like pecans, walnuts etc. Not sure what the market is for them but it seems like it could provide a nice side income - like having a part time job. If I were doing it for survival I guess I would add fruit trees and a pond stocked with fish.

[kadee79]

Virginian, those nut trees are good! You can eat a LOT of nuts! We have pecan trees...ours aren't big enough to produce YET but I have lived in other houses where we had plenty.
Down here there are businesses that will "crack" your pecans for you...@35 cents-45 cents per lb. You get to take them home & "pick" out the halves & pieces....more pieces than halves!
If you harvest/gather/collect your pecans for sale to one of the buyers...the prices range from "they don't want those pathetic things" to ....usually start around .35 lb. around here...it depends on the size, flavor & quality of nuts you have. I think the highest I've heard of anyone getting was .75 lb. and those were BIG top quality nuts....most get .35-.55 lb.
A mature pecan tree can produce several hundred to even a thousand lbs. of nuts but that won't happen every year....and a LOT will depend on weather & soil conditions & water availability.
As trees age their production will go down and they will need to be replaced too. You will also have years that the nuts will be attacked by insects...nuts NO GOOD!
English walnuts should be about the same. There isn't much of a market for Black Walnuts....not many people use them in foods anymore. There is a market for black walnut wood...especially for gun stocks & nice things like that!
Side note here....if you use a CHARCOAL grill, pecan wood used like hickory chips (soaked & put on charcoal) will give foods a really good flavor! I prefer it to hickory!

It has been awhile since I sold pecans but have a BIL who does it every year...but we used to get between $300-700 a year. Ours were mostly small nuts (seedling nuts...used as pollinators for bigger pecans). And I kept a lot that I used in baking/cooking!

[kadee79]

I had some more thoughts about fruit & nut trees...
If any of you are really serious about doing these things, PLEASE do your research before you buy something!
Some fruit trees require a certain # of "chill hours" before they will produce a crop (peaches come to mind). Some varieties will work in your area & some won't...no matter where you live. There are varieties that have been developed for most but not all areas. Just because a store or nursery in your area sells a certain variety doesn't mean it is the best, most reliable one for that area.
Use your county extension service to find out what does best in your area. Get a soil test BEFORE you plant to see if you need amendments or not...no reason to waste monies putting things in the soil that aren't needed and it's much harder to add after you have planted. Find out what the continuing requirements will be...organic matter, fertilizers, pest controls, etc. Some of these can get really costly and difficult to apply to mature trees.
If you are going to want to sell...figure out how...farmer's markets, commercial buyers or other ways like a roadside stand...then do your homework there too...costs, state law requirements, licensing, etc.

See, raising a crop of anything is as much or more research than buying stocks...and just as risky most of the time! But if things get really bad and you have a crop of any kind...you have something you can trade for things you need!

[Trongersoll]

There is also a market for crushed walnut shells.

[kadee79]

Trong, what market?

[Trongersoll]

Jun 25, 2012 15:54:27 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Trong, what market?

They are used in paint removal like sand blasting and are used in tumblers for polishing things like stones and metal items.

[kadee79]

Ok, I forgot about those since I don't deal with that type of thing.

I was afraid you were going to say for mulch...they used to use crushed pecan shells around here....until they found out that the oil residue in the shell drew roaches! And black walnuts give off that stuff that kills everything else...can't think what it's called...senior brain fart!

[bimetalaupt]

What it will cost Germany .. 10% unemployment and loss of GDP of 10%..

The German Finance Ministry has estimated the cost of a euro zone breakup, and it's not pretty.

Just in case you were wondering how costly a breakup of the euro zone would be, the German Finance Ministry is here to help. Der Spiegel has published an internal ministry report that estimates a breakup would cause German unemployment to double, and GDP to contract by 10 percent.

On first glance, you might think that such an analysis would help move German voters toward the compromises needed to prevent a breakup, but Steven Englander, head of G10 currency strategy at Citigroup (C), says it's not that simple.The German Finance Ministry has estimated the cost of a euro zone breakup, and it's not pretty.

Just in case you were wondering how costly a breakup of the euro zone would be, the German Finance Ministry is here to help. Der Spiegel has published an internal ministry report that estimates a breakup would cause German unemployment to double, and GDP to contract by 10 percent.

On first glance, you might think that such an analysis would help move German voters toward the compromises needed to prevent a breakup, but Steven Englander, head of G10 currency strategy at Citigroup (C), says it's not that simple.

"The euro breakup scenario is not the same as a Grexit scenario," he wrote in a note to clients. In other words, if Greece alone were to leave the euro, the cost might be much smaller. And in any case, Englander says, Greece is hardly the only problem in the euro zone.

"As enthralling as the vampire vs. werewolf debate among adolescent girls is the FX market debate on whether Spain or Greece is more important in driving the euro risk," he wrote. Markets have been reacting more to Spain's troubles than to events in Greece, he says. "Finding a solution to Spain is a necessary condition for the euro zone holding together (rescuing Greece, but not Spain won't accomplish much)."

As for what all this means for the euro, (EUR) Englander is glum. "Neither the likely impasse between Greece and other euro zone countries on their respective visions of austerity, nor the costing of a euro zone breakup are euro positive," he wrote. "The euro's weakness is that, while the willingness to find broad solutions has grown, the potential costs seem to be growing even faster" as the number of investment grade countries in the euro zone shrinks and weaker countries' troubles worsen.

"The euro breakup scenario is not the same as a Grexit scenario," he wrote in a note to clients. In other words, if Greece alone were to leave the euro, the cost might be much smaller. And in any case, Englander says, Greece is hardly the only problem in the euro zone.

"As enthralling as the vampire vs. werewolf debate among adolescent girls is the FX market debate on whether Spain or Greece is more important in driving the euro risk," he wrote. Markets have been reacting more to Spain's troubles than to events in Greece, he says. "Finding a solution to Spain is a necessary condition for the euro zone holding together (rescuing Greece, but not Spain won't accomplish much)."

As for what all this means for the euro, (EUR) Englander is glum. "Neither the likely impasse between Greece and other euro zone countries on their respective visions of austerity, nor the costing of a euro zone breakup are euro positive," he wrote. "The euro's weakness is that, while the willingness to find broad solutions has grown, the potential costs seem to be growing even faster" as the number of investment grade countries in the euro zone shrinks and weaker countries' troubles worsen.
finance.yahoo.com/news/cost-eurogeddon-213149007.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mr. V that is one thing I forgot. He had a nice dugout full of fish for a while. But it would flood in the spring into a creek and he didn't want to keep paying to restock it.. Your plan is exactly what he did. Just had it took keep busy and feed his big family. He had three, with 9 grandkids, so I'm thinking that I will go through quite a bit of canned food when I'm a grandpa... ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 25, 2012 23:23:40 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

What it will cost Germany .. 10% unemployment and loss of GDP of 10%..

The German Finance Ministry has estimated the cost of a euro zone breakup, and it's not pretty.

Just in case you were wondering how costly a breakup of the euro zone would be, the German Finance Ministry is here to help. Der Spiegel has published an internal ministry report that estimates a breakup would cause German unemployment to double, and GDP to contract by 10 percent.

On first glance, you might think that such an analysis would help move German voters toward the compromises needed to prevent a breakup, but Steven Englander, head of G10 currency strategy at Citigroup (C), says it's not that simple.The German Finance Ministry has estimated the cost of a euro zone breakup, and it's not pretty.

Just in case you were wondering how costly a breakup of the euro zone would be, the German Finance Ministry is here to help. Der Spiegel has published an internal ministry report that estimates a breakup would cause German unemployment to double, and GDP to contract by 10 percent.

On first glance, you might think that such an analysis would help move German voters toward the compromises needed to prevent a breakup, but Steven Englander, head of G10 currency strategy at Citigroup (C), says it's not that simple.

"The euro breakup scenario is not the same as a Grexit scenario," he wrote in a note to clients. In other words, if Greece alone were to leave the euro, the cost might be much smaller. And in any case, Englander says, Greece is hardly the only problem in the euro zone.

"As enthralling as the vampire vs. werewolf debate among adolescent girls is the FX market debate on whether Spain or Greece is more important in driving the euro risk," he wrote. Markets have been reacting more to Spain's troubles than to events in Greece, he says. "Finding a solution to Spain is a necessary condition for the euro zone holding together (rescuing Greece, but not Spain won't accomplish much)."

As for what all this means for the euro, (EUR) Englander is glum. "Neither the likely impasse between Greece and other euro zone countries on their respective visions of austerity, nor the costing of a euro zone breakup are euro positive," he wrote. "The euro's weakness is that, while the willingness to find broad solutions has grown, the potential costs seem to be growing even faster" as the number of investment grade countries in the euro zone shrinks and weaker countries' troubles worsen.

"The euro breakup scenario is not the same as a Grexit scenario," he wrote in a note to clients. In other words, if Greece alone were to leave the euro, the cost might be much smaller. And in any case, Englander says, Greece is hardly the only problem in the euro zone.

"As enthralling as the vampire vs. werewolf debate among adolescent girls is the FX market debate on whether Spain or Greece is more important in driving the euro risk," he wrote. Markets have been reacting more to Spain's troubles than to events in Greece, he says. "Finding a solution to Spain is a necessary condition for the euro zone holding together (rescuing Greece, but not Spain won't accomplish much)."

As for what all this means for the euro, (EUR) Englander is glum. "Neither the likely impasse between Greece and other euro zone countries on their respective visions of austerity, nor the costing of a euro zone breakup are euro positive," he wrote. "The euro's weakness is that, while the willingness to find broad solutions has grown, the potential costs seem to be growing even faster" as the number of investment grade countries in the euro zone shrinks and weaker countries' troubles worsen.
finance.yahoo.com/news/cost-eurogeddon-213149007.html

Bruce,

Don't forget it will also cost Merkel her JOB.. That's why she is the 180 lady!

Vunderbond or bust!

[Deleted]

"if Europe Collapses" --

I guess it depends on whom you believe.
If you believe the "pros" we face all out world economic collapse and we never recover.
If You Believe the Analysts, we face a Sharp recession/depression and a lot of social unrest followed by Unbelievable prosperity.

If you believe the guys still hawking gold and silver, it will make you the next multi billionaire (but only if you buy gold and silver from them at the ridiculous markups they charge)

I personally don't know what is going to happen if that (Europe collapsing) happens... But I know this, the reaction is going to be way, way to severe and will far overshoot the Bad results by 5 planets, 2 black holes and a few Nebula's...
And by the time anyone realizes it on the Retail side, the "Pros" will have started the games back up and mopped the floor with most Individual Investors...Which will result in more Gov. regulations, which will result in more taxes, which will result (You get the picture) -- End result things will stay bad for as long as the Gov. Crushes the Lower and middle class , while patting the Greedy thieves on the back..

[The Virginian]

The real question that we need answered is how much exposure does our banks have to Europe? We know that the Fed transferred Trillions during the meltdown. But of course they keep all this information secret but anyone with common sense knows the Fed is just as involved in Europe as here. In fact through the World Banks, the IMF and other institutions the Fed is Global.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes and no Mr. V. The FED has done swaps with the ECB. So it's the ECB that is paying back all that money with interest. It's the same with the IMF, the US is the biggest contributor to that fund for sure, but it's re-payed. That's the thing all the conspiracy sites never say, or maybe they just don't know that part However, Mr. Bernanke has talked about it a few different times now. You would have to imagine that the banks on wall st would have exposure to the EU bond market, as well as the funds. The real problem is that the EU banking system is built off of everyone buying each others bonds. So the EU is exposed to the EU... I hope that makes sense.

[The Virginian]

Sorry A but the paying back part only works if there are no defaults. If I owe you one million dollars and I am paying you back over 10 years and then one day while I still owe you 900,000 and I declare bankrupcy - guess what ? I just screwed you out of 900,000! It works the same with countries as it does with individuals. So while they are paying back for now the day is probably coming that they can no longer do that. If the Fed decides to lend them even more it will kick the can down the road a bit but the underlying issues are still there.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That's not how it works in this case though. The only way that money doesn't get paid back is if the ECB defaults along with the IMF. Banks have people defaulting on loans all the time, it doesn't effect money they are paying back, it doesn't change the amount they pay back, unless the bank itself goes bankrupt. IF the ECB and the IMF collapse, then yes that money will never get paid back.

[The Virginian]

You don't get it - The ECB & IMF are the US ! We will not get payed back!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I don't get it? Ok. Do you know what just happened? Vunderbond!!

Enjoy your conspiracy sites.

[The Virginian]

Enjoy your conspiracy sites

Really?? Since when did factual information become a conspiracy?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Facts like the ECB and the IMF ARE the US?? It's all good. I know you don't understand what is going on you have said as much a few different times.

[The Virginian]

Facts like the ECB and the IMF ARE the US?? It's all good. I know you don't understand what is going on you have said as much a few different times

Facts like most of their funds come from the FED!

It seems you are hell bent on picking an argument so I am hitting the ignore button for you. If I can't carry on a conversation with someone without be accused of being a conspiracy theorist then why continue?

[The Virginian]

This thread is still doing some strange things

[The Virginian]

This thread is "hiding" responses" from me - Must Be A Conspiracy!

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 30, 2012 6:48:20 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Facts like the ECB and the IMF ARE the US?? It's all good. I know you don't understand what is going on you have said as much a few different times

Facts like most of their funds come from the FED!

It seems you are hell bent on picking an argument so I am hitting the ignore button for you. If I can't carry on a conversation with someone without be accused of being a conspiracy theorist then why continue?

Mr. V,
AS I recall the FED made a ton of money on the swaps during 2009-2010!!! never lost a penny!!!Remember the Federal Reserve Banks are banks!! and the most profitable in the world.. Yes they will not pass BIS III but that is because Central banks are exampt...

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt
BiMetalAuPt

[The Virginian]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 30, 2012 0:45:16 GMT -5 @patstab said:

The WSJ had some article, I just scanned it, I believe the US has pumped billions into Europe.

And someone was talking about nuts. Apparently the chinese like some of our nuts very well. It's either walnuts or pecans they favor. The reason nuts are going up so much is last year they bought something like 90% of our crop, that's the reason prices have been so high for nuts. Might be a good reason to produce them but I believe it takes quite a few years before they produce, pecans 7 years.

I don't know what will happen, but I don't see the job creaters creating any jobs here and they have all the money to influence congress so guess who the laws will be made for?

This is true Pat. Since the Finical crisis the FED has pumped billions into the ECB through swaps. As Bruce has pointed out the result of that has been the FED making massive profits for the UST.

But before the Crisis..

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank

The key tasks of the ECB are to define and implement the monetary policy for the Eurozone, to conduct foreign exchange operations, to take care of the foreign reserves of the European System of Central Banks and promote smooth operation of the financial market infrastructure under the TARGET2 payments system and the technical platform (currently being developed) for settlement of securities in Europe (TARGET2 Securities).

Furthermore, it has the exclusive right to authorise the issuance of euro banknotes. Member states could issue euro coins, but the amount must be authorised by the ECB beforehand (upon the introduction of the euro, the ECB also had exclusive right to issue coins).

In U.S. style central banking, liquidity is furnished to the economy primarily through the purchase of Treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve Bank. The Eurosystem uses a different method. There are about 1500 eligible banks which may bid for short term repo contracts of two weeks to three months duration.[13]

The banks in effect borrow cash and must pay it back; the short durations allow interest rates to be adjusted continually. When the repo notes come due the participating banks bid again. An increase in the quantity of notes offered at auction allows an increase in liquidity in the economy. A decrease has the contrary effect. The contracts are carried on the asset side of the European Central Bank's balance sheet and the resulting deposits in member banks are carried as a liability. In lay terms, the liability of the central bank is money, and an increase in deposits in member banks, carried as a liability by the central bank, means that more money has been put into the economy.[14]

So when the Euro banks couldn't pay back the ECB in 2009, and since then, the ECB has been running short of funds and swapping with the FED. Mr. Bernanke has stated this a few different times in the addresses that he has had over the last couple of years.

Mr. Bernanke has also stated in the past little while the there was no more money for the ECB. That was the turning point in this Eurobond situation that is going on right now, and also how you know it's not some giant conspiracy to enslave us.

I know you didn't ask about the IMF Pat, however, it was brought up and it's an interesting situation. It was designed in the first place(1945) to be based on GDP size. So the biggest countries in the world by GDP contribute the most and have the most votes. In 1945 most economists didn't think that the USA would be 10x the size of everyone else by 2010, it was designed in the first place to be a bit more power sharing. (Remember in the 1980's Japan was supposed to be bigger than the USA).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund

The IMF’s quota system was created to raise funds for loans.[31] Each IMF member country is assigned a quota, or contribution, that reflects the country’s relative size in the global economy. Each member’s quota also determines its relative voting power. Thus, financial contributions from member governments are linked to voting power in the organization.[29] This system follows the logic of a shareholder-controlled organization: wealthy countries have more say in the making and revision of rules.[32]

Since decision making at the IMF reflects each member’s relative economic position in the world, wealthier countries that provide more money to the fund have more influence in the IMF than poorer members that contribute less.; nonetheless, the IMF focuses on redistribution.[29]

www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/finfac.htm

Each member of the IMF is assigned a quota, based broadly on its relative size in the world economy, which determines its maximum contribution to the IMF’s financial resources

Even though it has been one sided for a while, it's also getting a bit more balanced. Which was the plan in the first place..(This is why ANY country can join)

China Leads Nations Boosting IMF’s Firewall To $456 Billion
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-19/china-leads-nations-boosting-imf-s-firewall-to-456-billion-1-.html

[The Virginian]