DEBT WALL 2013: The Death of Socialism

[dothedd]

Aham,

Let's see if this works....if not I will contact MOON!

Dot

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Big props to you barb for starting this thread and making the call well in advance that the "fiscal cliff" will become a big headline. It's interesting to look back throughout the thread to see how this situation has unfolded.

There are lots of places to start the conversation of the death of socialism. The EU situation is one, the fact that China is moving towards capitalism is another.

There is the topic of this thread the "fiscal cliff"; however, the best place to start, IMO, is by looking at a country that has only had a real constitution since 1982, Canada. Canada has gone through a "fiscal cliff" already and has been moving more toward free enterprise ever since.

Now, to solidify the transition to a fully funded social system funded by the bleeding hearts that support it, the Conservative party of Canada is proposing that social services run for profit, funded by some of our favorite things around here; bonds.

Kelly McParland: Ottawa explores ‘social impact bonds’ to finance services at a profit
fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/09/kelly-mcparland-ottawa-explores-social-impact-bonds-to-finance-services-at-a-profit/

Human Resources Minister Diane Finley indicated Thursday that the federal government has taken steps to introduce an innovative new approach to funding needed social services. Ottawa, she said, has already adopted the concept of “social impact bonds” for grant applicants to Human Resources and Skills Development Canada.

The idea is to find money to pay for social services that are badly needed, but can’t be provided by governments struggling to reduce deficits and pay for the services they already offer. Though approaches vary, under the basic model a private sector supporter finances a program to be run by a social agency or non-profit organization, that is structured with a firm set of performance targets. If the targets are met, the government agrees to return the cost, plus a profit, to the financing organization.

Flaherty: U.S. should borrow Canadian ideas to make budget deal
www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/flaherty-us-should-borrow-canadian-ideas-to-make-budget-deal/article5377521/

[dothedd]

The Prime Minister also said he’s still not certain whether Mr. Obama will back the Keystone pipeline project that would carry Alberta oilsands crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The Democratic president delayed approval for the pipeline until after the Nov. 6 election but Mr. Harper made it clear he’s not assuming that the Obama White House will eventually back the deal. “He has said repeatedly to us that he has not made a decision on the project,” Mr. Harper said.

He said this is why Canada has to shift trade away from the United States and towards more rapidly-growing emerging markets such as India.
Continued: www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/harper-urges-obama-to-work-with-congress-to-resolve-fiscal-cliff/article5090370/

Aham, Obama made a deal with George Soros during the Gulf of Mexico OIL spill and will continue to promote "his" interest in that direction.

Hope I am wrong, but only time will tell. I first became aware of Soros in 2004 when I day traded BFLY ... in retrospect it became clear he was buying into America for reasons of his own.

dot

A must watch video:

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

There is lots of oil flowing south already. The USA is becoming a top oil and Nat Gas producer. BiMetal says that wind is the same cost as heating oil, and in a storm having some solar panels would be nice to keep the cooking gear going. Soros is a player for sure, but just one of many that all have egos.

If the national conversation going forward is all about a balanced budget than the "fiscal cliff" isn't all bad. That's what it took up here in Canada anyway.

[moon/Laura]

Nov 19, 2012 21:43:43 GMT -5 dothedd said:

Aham,

Let's see if this works....if not I will contact MOON!

Dot

Changing the thread title will change the original post's title, as well as all posts made *after* the title was changed.. but it won't change anything in between. Each person (or a mod) would have to manually edit the title on all those posts - no way to do it en masse, unfortunately.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The evolution through the thread is cool to see, I'm glad there isn't a way to change it up en masse.. Thanks Moon.

As discussed earlier this new "era of austerity", aka the Death of Socialism, is most likely going to be generational thing. For the next couple of years still it looks like there is going to be lots emotion for the markets. This has and upside if you're investing for your future, when the story is the markets are crashing, start looking at buying some good dividend paying stocks.

Autumn Statement: George Osborne says austerity will stretch to 2018
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/autumn-statement-george-osborne-says-1474048

This basically guarantees that there will be budget arguments until 2014 in the US....

US Senate approves $631 billion 2013 defense budget
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/us-senate-approves-631-billion-2013-defense-budget/articleshow/17487844.cms

US Senate unanimously passed the Pentagon's 2013 budget on Tuesday, despite a political impasse over debt reduction that could see huge cuts to military spending next year.

[dothedd]

www.usdebtclock.org/

www.babylontoday.com/national_debt_clock.htm

[Driftr]

I see the 10 and 30 yields moving up nicely. Haven't seen 3% on that 30 in too long. Now, if we could just get the 10 up to that level we'd be talking.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So much for that bond bubble eh?

THE DEBT WALL 2013: The Death of Socialism

Goodbye, Government, Under Either Fiscal Plan
www.nytimes.com/2012/12/19/business/say-goodbye-to-the-government-under-either-fiscal-plan.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

As President Obama and Speaker John Boehner negotiate to resolve the looming fiscal crisis, Americans might be forgiven for believing that the nation’s problems would be solved if they could only agree on whether to raise $1.2 trillion or $1 trillion in new taxes over the next 10 years, or whether they should cut $850 billion rather than $1.2 trillion more in government spending.

This is not, unfortunately, the case. The frenzied partisan horse-trading has glossed over what is arguably the central issue of any debate over long-term fiscal policy: the kind of role we expect the government to play in the nation’s future.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As discussed in the last post and earlier in this thread, this is going to be a generational shift. Just like Dot's first post points out, 2013 is the debt wall, the year that govt around the world really start working towards a path to the new gold standard. (10% Capital on the books and balanced budgets.)

Wall St Week Ahead - Cliff may be a fear, but debt ceiling much scarier
in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/28/usa-fiscal-market-weekahead-jitters-idINDEE8BR0D720121228?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+Business+News%29

US hits borrowing limit, moves to avoid default
news.yahoo.com/us-hits-borrowing-limit-moves-avoid-default-225039977--finance.html

Central 1 among six downgraded Canadian banking firms
Credit ratings firm Standard & Poor's cites low interest rates and economic pressures facing the country
www.vancouversun.com/business/Central+among+downgraded+Canadian+banking+firms/7704132/story.html

Canada's housing market: a victim of demographics
www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/canadas-housing-market-a-victim-of-demographics/article6185296/

Ottawa’s $800-billion housing problem(Canada's national debt is about 602 Billion)
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/cmhc-ottawas-800-billion-housing-problem/article6732755/

The real fiscal cliff hits Portugal in 2013
www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/the-real-fiscal-cliff-hits-portugal-in-2013/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Why all the confidence that this mess will get worked out? Nouriel Roubini, who had been mentioned a few times in this thread, correctly predicted the housing meltdown of 2008. He along with myself have been saying to watch out for 2013, since 2011. For the majority of this year "Dr. Doom" has been saying that his perfect storm for 2013 is unfolding just has he thought it would. However, when the meltdown of Dec 2012 didn't happen like so many thought it would, he has now changed his tune a bit, in fact, he now sees things my way.

OH NO: Roubini Believes In The Housing Recovery, And Is Optimistic About The US Economy
www.businessinsider.com/roubini-on-the-housing-recovery-2012-12

The '11 housing bottom and better US banking
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=perspectives&action=display&thread=19866

Bearish Economist Nouriel Roubini Turns More Positive on Greece
blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2012/12/06/bearish-economist-nouriel-roubini-turns-more-positive-on-greece/

“If you’re willing to do that for the sake of keeping the euro zone together, whether it’s economic reasons or political or geo political or foreign policy then Greece has a chance.”

The words are an about-face for the bearish economist, who in July forecast that Greece would exit the euro by 2013.

The New EU
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=perspectives&action=display&thread=20107

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thank you very much sir, means a lot coming from a seasoned investor like yourself that has seen a lot come and go over the years. Best wishes to you and your family in the new year as well!

I look forward to keeping the information flowing as long as the good lord will allow it. ;D Although this area could use a solid LONG TERM investor thread that I know of and like to read. I've only been an investor for a decade so my investing perspectives are just scratching the surface of long term investing really.

Keep fighting the good fight Mr. Z.

[Deleted]

Message deleted by funsnowbird.

[Deleted]

Sorry for the deleted, Aham and everyone.
I was in the wrong thread. I don't do much of investing these day. ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No worries fun, although I am curious as to what it said.... Us personally will be investing for a long time, I like to buy when things look bad in the overall market. That's just me though. ;D

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Fun, it’s interesting that you bring market timing up, and I am very happy you did ;D ; I don’t feel that I am a market timer.

I see the stock market as an instrument to gauge how a large portion of the population feels day to day business is doing over all. It doesn’t bother me one bit when the market is down, in fact for me it’s time to look at companies that have been around for a long time, like say KO and XOM.

What I do is use my understanding and knowledge of the past to do what you’re saying, analyze both sides of all the issues, from top to bottom. From there I apply probability to the various outcomes in each situation and blend together the overlapping situations. What makes the most logical sense based on my historical research is how I determine possible timelines for the future.

I rarely set dates to any of my probabilities, as time is relative, it’s just a matter of if the probabilities that I’m talking about are happening at some time. The reality of any situation is that once a probable outcome becomes a reality, it also means that the basis of the probability are true. That is what I’m finding most interesting about life.

So there are different layers obviously, a quick example would be the article you posted about interest rates fun.

On one hand the threat of higher interest rates will get a lot of people that are sitting on the sidelines in the USA housing market to start getting in the game. On the other hand, higher interest rates are going cause the market to slowly keep getting better instead of a boom hitting. On a third hand, the higher rates are going to cause major problems for the Canadian housing market, and certain economies within Canada that have been very reliant on housing up until this point. Bottom line, stay .

Why housing prices aren't coming back
www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

Numbers don’t lie – especially about Canada’s overheated housing sector. Increases in home prices in recent years have not been matched by underlying increases in fundamentals. The market is due for a severe correction.

[Deleted]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To me it's not so much "engineered" by the FED, however, I will agree that the FED stopped the losses in 2008 and have been instrumental in getting things moving along again, and I 110% agree that this has been an emotionally driven market since then and will continue to be so for a while.

I don't buy into the bottom is getting squeezed at any point. Since 1958 the cost of goods per hours worked has dropped by 83%! ;D The only reason that the "bottom" is getting squeezed in this part of the world is because money management is not something that a lot of people are interested in. I will say that in situations like that of the natives here in Canada, the chiefs have been robbing them blind.

Thank you for the links, I will read up on them for sure. However, whenever anyone talks about the "endgame" I usually just laugh and move on. This is all part of something and I can tell you that I have done enough research to understand the calculated risks that have been taken to ensure that we are all connect through this massive debt. Have you had a chance to go through some of the other threads in this area and the religious area?? When I talk about my historical view points, I mean I base what is going presently to what JC did for us back then.

I am well aware of the Chinese property bubble, I talk about it in other threads in this area, however, don't forget that China has TRILLIONS in dollars that they are going to spend around the world. Watching the Chinese economy over the next couple decades is going to be like watching a slow motion plane crash.

All great point Fun, hope you have a wonderful day.

[Deleted]

Message deleted by funsnowbird.

[Deleted]

Sorry, about the delete. Ahamburger.

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 4, 2013 8:06:59 GMT -5 @funsnowbird said:

Ahamburger

Market timing can be risky business. Even a lot of Pro fail to see that.

The only thing, I saw clearly was a housing bubble.... But I can be wrong on this time around. Only because, my time horizon is not long as use to be. What I have been doing all of my earlier years of investing. I clear out the noise of others use what it makes sense to me.

Read a lot on the issues and look at both side of the coin, sort of speak.

See the number and make a goal. When those are met you don't have much to worry about.

Fun,
I have heard a story about one of the best market timers.. She would buy ATT (T) when she could maker more money from dividends then at the bank and collect her dividends when she could make more money in the banks Everyone in her family thought she had a real Lack of understanding of the market until her passing.. She had made a ton of money. AS this is also know as bet on black.. Long term and long only investing.

Just a thought,
Bruce

[Deleted]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 7, 2013 17:12:22 GMT -5 @funsnowbird said:

Sorry, about the delete. Ahamburger.

It's funny, fun I read this post on the 7th and have been looking for time to get a response and was looking forward to the conversation on this topic to continue.  I remember some of it so I hope your not mad that I am going to respond.  The fact is that I love that you called me out on the title to this thread.  If I were to write an article about this, or just have this topic as a stand alone article on the internet.  I would not title it "The Death of Socialism."  I would probably title it something like,  "The Ultimate Strength that WILL Carry us Through this Debt." 

The reason a title like that, I don't think it will be 20+ full years of just slow agonizing growth with the end of people have a half decent life. The reason I don't think it will be this way is because I don't think the FED is controlling everything, I actually think that FED is the biggest reason the we have a shot at world wide freedom. (Alternate History Without the FRB) 

One big reason that I think the FED has less control than some think, is also one of the biggest things that good long term investors that I know around here, and in person look at, earnings.  Companies have been making tons of money because more and more people are using the staples that we all enjoy (food, water, TP, ect).  Over the last four years it has driven the market higher like clockwork, and while some of the earnings this season so far have been a bit weak, the banks have been pretty much been crushing it!

That is great news because it's mostly attributed to higher revenue from a healing housing market in the USA.  Which means that the FED isn't lying, the housing bottom is in and the market is 110% recovery mode, and the FED is on it's exit from bond buying over the next 2 years.  This is going to lead to a stronger US economy over the next 3-5 years, which will seem very slow.  

We can see how people everywhere are pushing to have the same freedoms that we enjoy here now.  There is tons of evidence of wages rising across the globe.  People will still need things and the more that things end up a bit more balanced everywhere else like they are here the more we will just make things in our own countries for our own use.  This is already showing up and will happen, slowly.

All of this activity will need food and natural resources.  The USA is already a huge supplier of food and is on track to be an energy powerhouse, slowly.

The reason I'm so confident that we aren't going to see just terrible slow growth like the last 4 yrs for the next 20+, even though I think it will take that long to get the big national debt issues under control, is because the new gold standard is 10% tier one capital and balanced budgets, the austerity that we are all going to have to go through, is going to be just a little bit more forgiving than what Europe had to go through.

Easing of Rules for Banks Acknowledges Reality
dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/07/easing-of-rules-for-banks-acknowledges-reality/

The biggest reason however fun that I am so confident in all of this is because of history and a theory about what JC accomplished economically and strategically while he was here.  While prediction based on probability is difficult I agree; the more things fall in line with a certain reality, the less likely (probable) that the theory (reality) is wrong.

I don't know if you delete your posts because you feel bad or think you will upset me or something, but I for one really enjoy a good debate.

Thanks again for all your kind words!!      

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2013 0:33:22 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

[Deleted]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hey fun! Hope all has been well with you and your family!! Things have been waaay busier around here than I was planning on.

I would say that my personal life an my investing life are one and the same. I believe in the historical JC and I have put together historical facts that outline his life and legacy. I believe that he set us up to ultimatly suceed, not fail. This is why regardless of what happens in the short term, I will always plan on my family having a long term investment outlook.

Great article BTW, and here is one about the good old Canadian Housing bubbles..

Great Canadian real estate crash of 2013
www2.macleans.ca/2013/01/09/crash-and-burn/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ok, one more.

Housing starts plunge, revealing weaker than expected market
www.financialpost.com/m/wp/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2013/02/08/housing-starts-plunge-revealing-weaker-than-expected-market

Only unexpected for some.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some more news about the Canadian housing market.

More adjustment to come in home prices: Carney
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/more-adjustment-to-come-in-home-prices-carney/article8776308/

 Bring on the Laissez-faire. 

Carney Says His Job Is Helping With BOE ‘Re-Founding’
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-17/carney-says-he-will-help-with-bank-of-england-s-re-founding-.html