DEBT WALL 2013: The Death of Socialism

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Message deleted by Ahamburger.

[dothedd]

"Sure looks like entitlements are the issues"

The Influenza Pandemic of 1918

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people.

virus.stanford.edu/uda/

[dothedd]

THIS IS SOMEWHAT RELATED [sort of]

"Marxism in America"

[dothedd]

www.usdebtclock.org/#

CHECK YOUR STATE DEBT CLOCK in the upper left side...





GOD BLESS AMERICA!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The debt clock moves because the Govt is/was spending our money.. Things can't go on like they have been, but they also won't be as bad as some think... IE.. A Credit Card company isn't going to come after a customer that is paying its bills. It's possible to balance the budget and produce surpluses, and it start with less govt involvement in everything.. IE.. End Prohibition? But the biggest thing is that it is possible for the USA to turn it around and have a new way of operating..IE The American Renaissance.

[flow5]

Mr. Bernanke said, "but I think it's very important to say that if no action were to be taken by the fiscal authorities, the size of the fiscal cliff is such that there's I think absolutely no chance that the Federal Reserve could or would have any ability whatsoever to offset that effect on the economy."

The conservative Heritage Foundation has estimated the size of the tax shift at $494 billion in 2013, or about 3 percent of the economy's total output.

Among the expiring breaks are Bush-era tax rates on personal income, capital gains, and dividends; a payroll-tax reduction; and some tax relief for businesses. The foundation says tax changes related to President Obama's health-care reform law are also set to kick in, drawing more revenue from taxpayers.

[flow5]

04/30/2012
Report On Foreign Portfolio Holdings Of U.S. Securities

Overall Results

The survey measured foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities as of June 30, 2011, to be $12,440 billion, with $3,830 billion held in U.S. equities, $7,731 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities1 (of which $1,140 billion are holdings of asset-backed securities (ABS) 2 and $6,591 billion are holdings of non-ABS securities), and $878 billion held in U.S. short-term debt securities.

The previous survey, conducted as of June 30, 2010, measured total foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities at $10,691 billion, with holdings of $2,814 billion in U.S. equities, $6,921 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities, and $956 billion in U.S. short-term debt securities

1. Long-term debt securities have an original term-to-maturity of over one year.

2. Asset-backed securities are backed by pools of assets, such as pools of residential home mortgages or credit card receivables, which give the security owners claims against the cash flows generated by the underlying assets. Unlike most other debt securities, these securities generally repay both principal and interest on a regular basis, reducing the principal outstanding with each payment cycle.

About TIC Data

foreign countries may hold dollars and other U.S. assets that are not captured in the TIC data. For these reasons, it is difficult to draw precise conclusions about changes in the foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets by individual countries from TIC data.

Table 1. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by type of security, (Billions of dollars)

Type of Security June 30, 2010
June 30, 2011

Long-term Securities
9,736
11,561

Equity
2,814
3,830

Long-term debt
6,921
7,731

Asset-backed
1,159
1,140

Other
5,763
6,591

Short-term debt securities
956
878

Total
10,691
12,440

Of which: foreign official institutions
4,346
4,847

Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., (Billions of dollars)

Country or category
Total
Equities
Long-term debt
Short-term

ABS
Other
debt

China (Mainland)1
1,727
159
220
1,343
5

Japan
1,585
302
165
1,052
67

United Kingdom
982
441
53
470
16

Cayman Islands
889
393
131
284
80

Luxembourg
817
291
50
407
69

Canada
559
415
10
121
13

Switzerland
488
226
24
222
16

Belgium
443
25
36
376
6

Middle East Oil Exporters2
419
188
13
137
81

Ireland
405
105
47
138
114

Hong Kong
292
43
101
82
66

Bermuda
272
59
49
136
28

Netherlands
260
165
22
67
5

France
249
140
16
78
14

Germany
238
81
38
112
7

Taiwan
232
16
39
175
3

Brazil
221
2
*
214
5

Singapore
212
107
3
95
7

Norway
181
124
12
44
1

Australia
161
106
5
44
7

Russia
154
*
*
138
16

Korea, South
133
20
42
66
5

Sweden
108
65
1
40
2

British Virgin Islands
107
61
4
25
17

Mexico
97
25
1
68
3

Country Unknown
138
2
*
136
1

Rest of the World
1,071
267
59
520
225

Total
12,440
3,830
1,140
6,591
878

Of which: foreign off. inst.
4,847
567
421
3,421
438

Without foreign investment, the problem of servicing the national debt would be compounded, perhaps not without violating the principles of a free economy. That is to say through a non debilitating level of taxation rather than a confiscatory capital levee.

When the balance of payments is balanced by foreigners acquiring net holdings of our equities, bonds, and real estate, and capital outflows (interest, dividends, rentals, etc.) exceed inflows, we are either decreasing our net creditor position in the world, or increasing our net debtor position.

The future trend of the trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar (basket of foreign currencies) is uncertain. If it is assumed that the U.S. Government will persist in multibillion dollar unilateral transfers to foreigners & that the trade deficits, even though reduced from present levels, will continue; the future course of the dollar will be down, UNLESS THE PAYMENTS GAP IS FILLED BY FOREIGN INVESTMENT.

[flow5]

The following is running as an op ed piece in today’s Dallas Morning News:

A huge fiscal cliff looms at year-end when massive tax increases, equal to about 3 ½ percent of GDP, and large and arbitrary spending cuts take effect automatically if Congress doesn’t do something before then. You might say the question is whether they will put a fence at the top of the cliff or an ambulance at the bottom. Gridlock will amount to a vote for the ambulance.

This harsh, cold-turkey, approach to our fiscal deficit has the advantage of forcing the issue one way or another. If left in place, it will finally deal with the deficit in a meaningful way, but the cost is likely to be tipping our fragile economy into another recession. Our GDP and job growth have already slowed substantially, and the European albatross is likely to continue to bedevil us.

The tax increases will not only include ending the social security tax break in place today and additional taxes associated with health care reform, but it will include ending the marginal tax rate reductions enacted during the Bush administration. It’s not just the sheer amount of tax increases that will slow the economy, but the adverse incentive effect of higher marginal tax rates that will penalize work, saving and investment.

It may be politically incorrect to say so out loud, but higher taxes on capital gains and dividends, the latter to the same rate level as earned income, would be particularly destructive. Labor productivity and wages depend on the amount of capital labor has to work with. A higher capital to labor ratio means higher wages and income for labor.

Economists generally agree with this, but it is too counter intuitive for most politicians to touch. Instead, they are likely to fall back on the “fairness” argument—that corporations and those who earn dividends and capital gains should “pay their fair share.” This ignores, of course, the fact that taxes on dividends and capital gains are taxes on income that has already been taxed at the corporate level.

Some supply siders argue that higher taxes on any form of income is self defeating since it slows economic activity sufficiently to reduce the tax take to the government. My hunch is that at current tax levels, a higher tax on earned income, and perhaps dividends would increase the tax take but by much less than the percentage increase in the tax rates. That’s probably not true of a hike in the capital gains tax. Higher tax rates on capital gains would likely reduce the total tax collected since capital gains recipients have some control over if and when to realize the gain.

If the government really wanted to generate more tax revenue, the lowest hanging fruit is probably the corporate income tax, which, at 35 percent, is the highest in the world. A substantially lower corporate tax rate would reduce the incentive for American corporations to locate operations abroad and increase the incentive for them to bring their earnings back home.

Whether tax rate increases are totally self-defeating or only partially so, their cost in reduced economic activity is high relative to tax revenue gained. A much more productive way to tackle the budget deficit and debt problem would be to restrain the growth in government spending over time, especially by bending down the cost curves in entitlement programs. Putting sensible programs in place now that would restrain spending growth over time is much better than the cold-turkey approach at year end.

Bob McTeer

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

If there was a clearer sign that the politicians fiefdom has come to an end, IDK what it would be. Bring on the capital creation!

[flow5]

The Fiscal Cliff: What it Means for Housing and Home Builders

At the end of 2012, a number of tax and spending policies are scheduled to change. Taken together, these changes may exert a strong fiscal drag on an already fragile macroeconomic environment depending on the actions of Congress. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls this the “fiscal cliff.” Tax policy analysts call it “taxageddon” or “taxmageddon.”

Regardless of its name, it represents the next dramatic policy deadline in Washington. Under present law, in 2013 the 2001/2003 tax cuts expire, the payroll tax cut expires, extended unemployment benefits end, and federal government spending levels decline due to last summer’s Budget Control Act.

If implemented, these changes would have large consequences for housing and home builders.

First, at the macro level, the fate of the ongoing recovery in housing is dependent on economic growth, job creation and household balance sheet repair. If all of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts go into force, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the total 2013 fiscal drag on the economy will be $560 billion. The chart below illustrates the CBO budget projections by fiscal year. Notice the jump in revenues in 2013, as well as the decline in outlays from 2011 to 2014.



As a result of the scheduled 2013 policies, the CBO forecast for GDP growth in 2013 falls from 4.4% to 0.5%. NAHB is currently forecasting 2.8% growth, but that is because our forecast assumes that the fiscal cliff is for the most part avoided (producing only a 1 to 1.5 percentage point drag on GDP, compared to the 3.9 percentage point drag estimated by CBO).

However, if the full fiscal drag is inflicted on the economy it would clearly be harmful to GDP growth. Negative or virtually flat GDP growth would obviously be harmful for housing, as it would cause more job loss, set back household balance sheet repair, and depress the already weakened housing market.

Besides the macro impact, certain individual policies will have a direct negative impact on housing and home building.

For home builders, the expiration of the 2001/2003 tax cuts would represent a business tax hike for a majority of the industry. According to NAHB census of membership data, 80% of NAHB members are organized as pass-thru entities, such as S Corporations or LLCs. For pass-thru entities, individual income tax rates are business tax rates. And if the 2001/2003 tax cuts expire, all the rates will increase – from the bottom rate of 10% increasing to 15% to the top rate of 35% increasing to 39.6%.

Taxes would rise for capital income as well. Capital gains tax rates, important for multifamily developers and C Corporations, would increase from 15% to 20%. Dividends rates, important for some S Corporations and C Corporations, would increase from 15% to ordinary income tax rates up to 39.6%.

Expiration of the 2001/2003 tax cuts would also mean an end to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) patch. Absent an AMT patch, the number of AMT payers for 2012 would grow from somewhat less than 5 million to more than 30 million. If the other tax cuts expire, this 30 million number would be significantly lower (10 million), but the AMT patch remains important nonetheless given the number of home builders organized as pass-thrus, who tend to get hit with the AMT. Typically the AMT is a concern for taxpayers reporting $200,000 to $500,000 in income, particularly those with large numbers of dependents or who live in high cost areas.

Finally, the top estate tax rate would increase to 55% and the exemption amount would fall to $1 million. For the nation’s family-owned home builders, the estate tax is a threat to keeping an multigenerational enterprise alive.

For housing demand, a number of expiring tax law provisions would reduce after-tax income and homebuyer and rental demand. For example, if the 2001/2003 tax cuts expire, the marriage penalty returns for a significant number of taxpayers. The child tax credit falls from $1000 to $500 per child.

And a direct negative effect on housing demand would come from the return of the Pease limitations, which would reduce the value of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) for taxpayers in high cost areas. The Pease rule phases out itemized deductions for taxpayers above and below the commonly cited middle class threshold of $250,000, thereby weakening the benefit of the MID.

Finally, while already in the baseline, there is also the issue of the “tax extenders.” For housing, important tax extenders needing approval include the 9 percent credit fix for the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, the 25C energy-efficient remodeling credit and the 45L new energy-efficient home tax credit.

So what do we expect to happen? While a lot rides on the results of the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, the best guess is that Congress manages to avoid the fiscal cliff, but as usual, runs close to the effective deadline. Thus, most, if not all, of the 2001/2003 tax cuts will be extended, perhaps for just a year or two. The payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits will likely lapse, but we expect the net spending cuts from the Budget Control Act to stand, even if there is some shifting or postponement among certain programs.

It is worth noting that there is a long-run fiscal challenge. Current budget deficits are unsustainable year after year if present policy is extended. Hard choices are going to have to be made regarding government spending - particularly entitlements – and tax revenues. But those choices do not have to be enacted in 2013, and given the weakness in the economy, they should not be.

While our expectations are that an economic crisis is averted, how the fiscal cliff problem is solved in 2012 will shape the tax reform debate in 2013. And given then importance of the MID and other housing tax rules, the importance of the short-term political challenge should be apparent.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great points in the article flow. I think the "WHAT IF'S" are the biggest part to the "fiscal cliff".

U.S. May Avert Plunging Over Fiscal Cliff in 2013: Economy
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/30/bloomberg_articlesM4SMB71A1I4H01-M4U8H.DTL

The U.S. will avoid plunging off a fiscal cliff in 2013, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, as lawmakers find enough common ground in budget negotiations to avert a recession.

This so-called cliff includes the expiration of income-tax cuts first enacted under President George W. Bush, the end of payroll-tax reductions and automatic decreases in government expenditures, which would clip a combined 3 percentage points from growth if allowed to kick in next year, according to the economists surveyed. Instead, compromises will limit the damage to 0.8 point, sustaining the expansion, the survey showed.

"Forecasters are pretty sanguine at the moment," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, who estimates the fiscal drag will shave 1.5 percentage points from growth next year. "While there will be a lot of brinksmanship and some tumult in financial markets as policy makers grind through this, at the end of the process they're going to scale back that cliff significantly."

[flow5]

Already read that piece. Just need to assemble the data sources needed to track our deficit. It's going to turn into the dominant economic variable.

[flow5]

...reserve accumulation works like Fed balance sheet expansion. Fed data shows that foreign central banks have added US$2.7-trillion to their U.S. government bond holdings during the past ten years, while the Fed’s own balance sheet accumulation has been only US$2.0-trillion. This second source of official bond demand also seems to have disappeared as the Fed is no longer expanding its balance sheet – “it is only twisting.”

Since foreign central banks aren’t seeing their currencies appreciate and are no longer intervening, they have no proceeds to add to their reserve portfolios. In the past 12 months (up to May 23, 2012), custodial holdings have risen US$64-billion. That compares to an average of US$265-billion annually for the previous five years

....as emerging market central banks purchase the U.S. dollar, 25% to 50% of the proceeds tend to be recycled into the euro pretty quickly. This has created steady demand for the euro, except during the crisis period from August 2008 to March 2009.

“Now that source of EURUSD demand is gone

business.financialpost.com/2012/05/31/why-a-major-source-of-u-s-bond-demand-is-drying-up/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 31, 2012 6:37:28 GMT -5 flow5 said:

Already read that piece. Just need to assemble the data sources needed to track our deficit. It's going to turn into the dominant economic variable.

Without a doubt, there is a lot of sub sets in that variable too. Those sets are a lot of what ifs. I look forward to your math.

I think that we are going to see the retirement age go up, just like up here in Canada.. They are saying 67 now, my guess is that by the time i'm 50 it will be 100...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Not sure if Dot is going to Change the title of her thread here or not, but again, watch out for 2013!

Jun 29, 2012 22:53:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It’s going to be especially hard over the next few years here as thing continue to get sorted out and the market stays erratic. There is a 70% chance that we are going to have another PANDEMIC scare in 2013 to go with the US debt wall.

Check out the NVAX area of this site. It's more like an 80% chance now...

Mexico declares bird flu ‘emergency’
news.kuwaittimes.net/2012/07/03/mexico-declares-bird-flu-emergency/

China reports bird flu outbreak
www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iPIMCXigI97QkMnK4c9ZcLO6FTIA?docId=CNG.6570597d3c3999dd02f1b742aba26d6c.251

The good news is that....

The fiscal cliff may look more like a fiscal slope
finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/12/fiscal-cliff-explainer/?section=magazines_fortune&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmagazines_fortune+%28Fortune+Magazine%29

[dothedd]

Aham,

Please feel free to change this thread to whatever fits the sign of the times.

Frankly, I've been so busy that I have forgotten about there being a Debt Wall.

It's amazing what peace comes with ignorance.

I lament not having time to read your and others hard work and informative posts, but will have to put it off until later this month.

God Bless America ... and God Bless Canada too, of course.

Later,

Dot

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Barb,

That's how you know it's going to be a HUGE media BS storm.. The politicians don't want to lose their jobs!

It's not ignorance my friend it's called, enjoy your life, but stay informed, the internet is filled with CRAP and I ENJOY dispelling half truths or I wouldn't be here.. All the great people I have met around here are just the +++!!

God bless you, hope your healing! I will PM you about the changes tomorrow.. Time to rest!

AHB

[dothedd]

Jul 3, 2012 23:41:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Not sure if Dot is going to Change the title of her thread here or not, but again, watch out for 2013!

Jun 29, 2012 22:53:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It’s going to be especially hard over the next few years here as thing continue to get sorted out and the market stays erratic. There is a 70% chance that we are going to have another PANDEMIC scare in 2013 to go with the US debt wall.

Check out the NVAX area of this site. It's more like an 80% chance now...

Mexico declares bird flu ‘emergency’
news.kuwaittimes.net/2012/07/03/mexico-declares-bird-flu-emergency/

China reports bird flu outbreak
www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iPIMCXigI97QkMnK4c9ZcLO6FTIA?docId=CNG.6570597d3c3999dd02f1b742aba26d6c.251

The good news is that....

The fiscal cliff may look more like a fiscal slope
finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/12/fiscal-cliff-explainer/?section=magazines_fortune&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmagazines_fortune+%28Fortune+Magazine%29

BIG BIRD IS ON ITS WAY....

Bird Flu Is Three Steps Away From Possibly Lethal Human Strain
Reuters | Posted: 07/11/2012 2:04 am
www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/11/bird-flu-vaccine-strain-mutation-h5n1_n_1663929.html

H5N1 Virus Could Evolve Quickly
July 11, 2012
www.redorbit.com/news/health/1112654331/h5n1-virus-could-evolve-quickly/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Anyone else excited for 2013 yet? ;D

[dothedd]

July 17, 2012, 2:12 p.m. EDT

World's Leading Virus Researchers Warn 'We Are Not Prepared for a Global Virus Crisis'
Global Virus Network Conference Identifies Greatest Threats To Public Health

NEW YORK, Jul 17, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Members of the Global Virus Network (GVN), which include foremost experts in every category of virus, and representing more than 20 countries, recently concluded a conference in Naples, Italy. Members presented current research, identified the most serious and imminent global virus threats to public health, and discussed both what is required and how to best deal with these viruses.

Continued:
www.marketwatch.com/story/worlds-leading-virus-researchers-warn-we-are-not-prepared-for-a-global-virus-crisis-2012-07-17

[dothedd]

July 18, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT

Credit-card pact no deal for consumers

CHICAGO (MarketWatch)—The $7 billion settlement between Visa, MasterCard, some large banks and retailers, if approved, sends a strong message to consumers: Buck up and plan on paying for the privilege of using a credit card or any other payment method.

“If you’re using an additional service when you shop you’ll be paying for that service,” said Anisha Sekar, vice president of credit and debit products for online financial-products reviewer NerdWallet. “Everyone who uses cash has been subsidizing credit-card holders for years.”

The antitrust settlement announced late Friday, which still needs to approved by a judge, calls for the card giants and large card-issuing banks to pay more than $7.25 billion in penalties and payment fees to retailers who claimed Visa /quotes/zigman/502306/quotes/nls/v V -0.32% and MasterCard /quotes/zigman/390906/quotes/nls/ma MA +0.26% had price-fixed interchange fees. Commonly referred to as “swipe charges,” interchange fees are charged on each credit-card transaction.

CONTINUED:

www.marketwatch.com/story/credit-card-pact-no-deal-for-consumers-2012-07-18?link=MW_story_popular

]Also note the MOST POPULAR on the right-side of the page.

July 17, 2012, 12:03 a.m. EDT

How Bernanke will cause the next crash before 2014
Commentary: Rich will lose 50% in massive wealth destruction...

[dothedd]

World
Israel Blames Iran for Attack in Bulgaria
An explosion tore through a bus packed with Israeli tourists in a Bulgarian beach-resort city, killing four people, wounding dozens and heightening tensions after Israel quickly blamed Iran. Josh Mitnick has details on The News Hub. Photo: AFP/GettyImages.
Up Next

Bomb Blast Hits Syria's Inner Circle
live.wsj.com/video/clinton-apologizes-for-bush-tax-cut-gaffe/C1975EEF-6D87-4633-AABD-D0EBDEBAEF0A.html?link=MW_article_tboright4#!8538D906-6086-4895-BC4F-2E8B1B171618

AHAM... I will move these to another Thread If you want me to when I get time.

dot

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I would have posted the Israel Blames Iran story on the China takes a stance on ME thread. But you are free to post where you want dot. I made the claim at the start of this thread that I have been talking about 2013 for quite some time, and since this is post 5,000! I think I will just do a quick recap before going forward.

This is from the thread: The PIIGS are going to cost far more then est! on the old MT.

May 4, 2011 22:25:40 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Bring on 2013!

At this point the USD is going to be the only solid reserve currency for at least 25 more yrs. IMO, we are seeing this so that China can get a reserve going. Japan got to 8% then wained. Can China do any better? I guess we will see how they handle all their liquid.

That 2013 was in reference to a conversation on a thread that FTI started back on the old boards in '09 about Greece.

This is from the thread: THE KEY TO MAKING MONEY IN STOCKS (or funds) on the old MT.

Jun 11, 2011 22:27:38 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Ya like my generation needs to stay focus on 10% teir 1. Pay yourself first. Some bank accounts go back 100yrs.

However, boomers are also going to start to inherit.. time for boomer teir 1 10% of retirement??

2013 is a number that has been througn out there a few times. Now Robliene(DR Doom) says 2013. US cut back really kick in. no swan, but still a big problem??

An article from the news cycle that backs up this quote...

Nouriel Roubini predicts a ‘perfect storm’ for 2013 but will it be earlier?
Posted on 13 June 2011
www.arabianmoney.net/us-dollar/2011/06/13/nouriel-roubini-predicts-a-perfect-storm-for-2013-but-will-it-be-earlier/

Then there is this quote from the thread: Make no mistake we are in a depression, on the old MT. This is why I at FEAR!

Sept 23, 2011 22:56:10 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

That's right usaone. It's called the swoosh..




I would like to point out that I have been saying for over 6 months now, look out for 2013!!

That takes us right back to the start of this thread: Reply #8

Feb 25, 2012 0:35:57 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I agree with the assertion above DOT. That the USA has to do something to get deficit financing under control. I was really worried about 2013 and I have been saying watch out for 2013 for quite some time now. However, over the past while it has become apparent that people have not lost their apatite for US debt yet. As well as EU debt. Just today Taiwan announced they are buying up Italian and Spanish debt because of the higher interest rates. When you look at Greece they may be sorry they did, however, that signals that the international community has more confidence now that the EU problem can be unwound because of the economies that are in trouble. Most of the rely on tourism, so if world economic growth can continue there can be forward momentum in the EU still.

China is way more wiling to sick to the plan of happiness as we can see with the coming elections there. That means that their trillions of dollars in reserves will go to work in their economy and that will funnel around the world. We see US companies making money in China and rising wages bringing work home. All this points to the GDP wheels in motion. I was really worried about 2013 dot, but things have gone a bit different than I expected in some of these dictatorships are the world. Saudi women are looking at driving soon!!

God bless you dot!

[dothedd]

THANKS FOR THE THOUGHTS, Aham...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No way, Dot..

You should be posting some of the new Nvax stuff here.. After all you're talking about investing and making money off of this possible pandemic.. They have a JV with GE don't they? That was one of the holdings I forgot to mention when I was talking about my long term holdings on WXYZ's thread on IBB... So that would be GE, KO, XOM, JNJ, SU, BCE, KMB for my long term stock holdings.

About the 2013 thing. IDK if you remember me motioning something else for a couple years here now, but, it's the fact that we Canadians went through this in the 90's. It's starting to show up in the media now. This reporter is oblivious to the fact that the Canadian housing market is in trouble, and obviously doesn't understand what Socialism is, however, the points are starting to show up now and that's the thing that's important..

Hardheaded Socialism Makes Canada Richer Than U.S.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-15/hardheaded-socialism-makes-canada-richer-than-u-s-.html

Since the 1990s, Canada has pursued a hardheaded (even ruthless), fiscally conservative form of socialism. Its originator was Paul Martin, who was finance minister for most of the ’90s, and served a stint as prime minister from 2003 to 2006.

Alone among finance ministers in the Group of Eight nations, he “resisted the siren call of deregulation,” in his words, and insisted that the banks tighten their loan-loss and reserve requirements. He also made a courageous decision not to allow Canadian banks to merge, even though their chief executives claimed they would never be globally competitive unless they did. The stability of Canadian banks and the concomitant stability in the housing market provide the clearest explanation for why Canadians are richer than Americans today.

Martin also slashed funding to social programs. He foresaw that crippling deficits imperiled Canada’s education and health- care systems, which even his Conservative predecessor, Brian Mulroney, described as a “sacred trust.” He cut corporate taxes, too.

Again, this guys editor should have let him know that Canada is bringing the axe down on Social programs again right now because he just doesn't get it. The fact is dot, it's just like I have been saying for ever. Socialism has failed epically, it's just going to take a long time for all balance to come back into the system. The Ultra rich NEED to invest in their own country, not rely on the Govt to do it.

This guy gets it(A Canadian.) ....

Party's over for Euro welfare state
www.torontosun.com/2012/07/05/partys-over-for-euro-welfare-state

Oh and if FTI was still allowed to post here, he would follow up with something like this...

THAT'S WHY OWS IS LOOKING AT STARTING A PHILANTHROPIST FUND! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like S&P is trying to get some credit back. 2013 starting to show up already.. Stay .

S&P cuts outlook on 7 Canadian banks
www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sp-downgrades-7-canadian-banks/article4445550/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is kind of a good news bad news story. First, it would appear that not all of the cuts that were to take place at the start of 2013 are going to happen, and since the FED didn't stimulate the US economy(a good thing); it means that the housing market is really making a turn in the USA. On the other hand, that means that interest rates are set to rise next year, and that means the start of big trouble for the Canadian housing market. The other thing is that a new bird flu looks to be making it's way into the mainstream, so regardless of how well the US economy might start performing in 2013 and beyond, there is still going to be LOTS of good headwinds in the media to keep a lid on the bull market that is slowing building during the swoosh.

House approves bill extending Bush-era tax cuts
www.marketwatch.com/story/house-approves-bill-extending-bush-era-tax-cuts-2012-08-01?siteid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse%20(MarketWatch.com%20-%20MarketPulse)

Canadian home prices to tumble 25% in long-term: Capital Economics report
www.570news.com/business/article/386266--canadian-home-prices-to-tumble-25-in-long-term-capital-economics-report

H5N1 virus scare prompts Hong Kong to shut down popular tourist spot
gantdaily.com/2012/07/06/h5n1-virus-scare-prompts-hong-kong-to-shut-down-popular-tourist-spot/

Taiwan finds H5N1 virus in birds smuggled from China
www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/302937/taiwan-finds-h5n1-virus-in-birds-smuggled-from-china

[Driftr]

What makes you think interest rates are going to rise? According to the Bernank, I thought we were going to suppress them until at least 2014. Any bond vigilantes still out there alive?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A recovering housing market by the end of 2013 will put upwards presser on the market. The banks are slowly dealing with the securities they have as well as the houses. They are losing money trading and they are going to have to get back to real banking if they want to survive the next 10 yrs. The big wall street banks are at real risk of being broken up over the next 10 yrs. Jamie Dimon made sure of that. Did the loses suck, yep. However, you have to like the guy for showing exactly WHY these players need to change. ;D

There was also this report. This move here is something that Bruce, Flow and I have talked about in the past. All they have to do is cut the reserve to stimulate the economy further because then banks will make more leading than just leaving it at the FED.

Fed May Cut Banks’ Interest on Reserves After ECB Move
www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/Fed-may-cut-banks-interest-on-reserves-after-ECB-3747913.php

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More bad signs for the prices of homes across Canada starting in 2013. The two main markets are starting to crack, and the WCC has begun.

GTA home sales slide in July
www.thestar.com/business/article/1236504--toronto-home-sales-slide-in-july

Home sales in the Toronto region slipped in July, down 1.5 per cent from a year earlier — but the slide seems minimal compared to Vancouver’s steep drop.

The Toronto Real Estate Board says 7,570 homes were sold in July in Greater Toronto, compared with 7,683 in July 2011, with a drop in condominium sales in Toronto being the most pronounced.

By contrast, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported 2,098 properties sold in July, down 11.2 per cent from a month earlier, and down 18.4 per cent from July 2011.