The Video Game Market's Investment Options

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 3, 2012 22:32:11 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

What does everyone here think? I have had a feeling for a while(couple years) that MSFT might drop the xbox(billinos lost on hardware development).

They have just dropped out of the consumer electronics show for 2013. Since it's the only consumer electronics product they have, could this be happening?

IF they were to focus on software 110%. Develop a universal platform for windows gaming by working with hardware developers to ensure quality gaming, thus allowing them to just upgrade those specs every couple of years to push gaming development along, would this free up the capital to see a significant move in the stock price of MSFT?

Jan 10, 2012 21:50:54 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

They just announced kinect support for windows at CES(MY favorite time of year).... They are HYPING windows 8, there is no surprise, but lets face it; they screw this up, APPL takes a HUGE chunk of next gen sales. Ballmer knows it .

Ultrabook..A detacable Tablet and keyboard shipping with windows 8 in the fall. Ballmer was also with NOK they are betting big with two new windows phones(spring and fall). Then there is the next xbox another multi billion dollar loss, just to try to get into a space that they basically already own?? Tablets have also changed gaming. The Next Wii has a tablet remote. IMO. MS finds a way to bring the xbox and PC together, they will be a powerhouse once again.

Jan 11, 2012 22:30:54 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Better than losing it on another console when they have people using their operating systems. All they have to do is make it so that the game developers pick a benchmark and stick to it. The CPU replacement cycle is around four years already anyway. Then all they have to do is redo the benchmark and viola you sell a shit load of CPUs for sure. This will make MS hardware partners happy, and MS can stick to software which should make them a better company.

Jan 16, 2012 1:03:00 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Any bets on which on it will be??

Source: Either Sony Or Microsoft Won't Have A Next-Gen Console
www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/10507.html

Doubling Down On Microsoft In Vegas
seekingalpha.com/article/319716-doubling-down-on-microsoft-in-vegas?source=feed

I think that instead of putting cash in NOK.. It's going into MSFT. MSFT licensed it's mobile operating systems to others so the safer bet on that play long term is now MSFT, since NOK isn't exclusive. MSFT is bringing the Kinect to windows. This will bring the PC into the living room and since those games are mostly competing with the Wii, MS could very well be looking at trying to go for the Wii's market share with a "whole family" experience.

Sony has lots of studios now, and they have become the lead platform on most new games for consoles. PC gamers buy and upgrade their PCs to play games all the time anyway, and the games for Kinect would work on any laptop that is out today since most are more powerful than the xbox is anyway.

[Virgil Showlion]

I have had a feeling for a while(couple years) that MSFT might drop the xbox(billinos lost on hardware development).

You mean the XBox 360?

I thought they had done well in sales?

[clarkrl2]

For the short version of this post go to the last line.

I think one of the problems with MSFT is they followed the revolutionary Win95 with the piece of dung they labeled as Win98. I live on the prairie and I've seen dung beetles pushing finer pieces of dung than Win98. It is my understanding Win ME was also a piece of dung but I never used it.

Since the Win98 fiasco I have been using versions of XP which are fine for the work I do. I also use Office and am satisfied with it although most of the recent updates in office don't do anything to improve the type of documents I create which are mainly math tests and simple spreadsheets.

The valuation ratios of MSFT look much better than they did ten years ago. Whether or not MSFT is trading at a good valuation I guess is in the eye of the beholder. In 2002 MSFT had a PE of 29.8 compared to 10.3 TTM. The S&P 500 was at 19.7 compared to 13.7 now. This was taken from Morningstar and here is a link financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=MSFT®ion=USA&culture=en-us to other ratios.

My investing style is to buy stocks at what I think is below fair value and sell them when they reach what I think is a fair value. There are many ways of valuing stocks but the average analyst 12 month target at finviz is $31 for MSFT. My favorite valuation metric for S&P500 growth stocks has it 26% overvalued but using my favorite valuation of S&P500 value stocks has it about 5% undervalued. My favorite way of ranking Dow 65 stocks has it number 7 (this is more of a ranking than valuation so I can't put a price target on it).

In short I don't own MSFT and wouldn't be too interested unless it fell in price another 15 to 20% or maybe in the $23 to $24 range.

[Virgil Showlion]

An OEM copy of Windows 8 will package with virtually every new PC that ships once it becomes the de facto operating system. But I'm seeing a lot of people happily clinging to Win XP, even though Vista and Windows 7 are now "mature" operating systems. I'm running Win 7 and (aside from performance issues and some backend stuff on gaming) there's very little difference between it and Win XP. Moreover, the differences are different rather than better, or annoyances like security dialogs.

Microsoft seems to release a new version of Office every two years and they've long-since reached the point where nobody wants or cares about their mucking with features. The software peaked in Office 2000. Since then, it's been a frenzied attempt by Microsoft to move things around enough from version to version to justify a re-release.

If their XBox isn't going anywhere—and again, I was startled by Ham's statement that they were having problems—I don't see MSFT going anywhere based on their OS sales.

[The Virginian]

I see a future where Microsoft is Gobbled up by Google or some other high profile tech company. Their problem: No real vision for products.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Good points about the Value Clark. On that alone, plus dividend it looks ok.

Jan 16, 2012 11:01:39 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Dont know anything about games, but I am not a fan of msft stock. I was an owner in the past till about 2001 when I sold all shares. They had everything going for them and squandered it. Their stock has gone nowhere for the past ten years. That is a long time to perform so badly.

What was it that made you drop it all together. I think you have said but I don't remember the points?

Virg, it's not that the sales are "bad". It's exactly what DI has pointed out.

www.bit-tech.net/news/gaming/2007/07/20/xbox_division_loses_2_billion_this_year/1

I can't find one that has the total loss, but it's in and around 8 billion over ten years down the drain. They are now neck and neck with the PS3 for total market share, each with about 50m sold.

When you consider that the PS2 was just dropped in 2010, and was still on the shelf in 2011, with sales in the 120+ million range, it's hard to image that going forward if the Ps3 drops to $199 that it wouldn't overtake the 360.

This means that MS, HAS to release a new system(more cash down the drain)

They can't drop physical media. SO, they have to go BD since the Ps4 will have BDXL(most likely) and have 100gigs of room for a game. This means they have to pay Sony for BD in their new Xbox.

Sony has spent millions on their Cell processor. They manufacture it and the BD diodes as well. All they have to do is release a beefed up version of the PS3, and viola, you have a powerhouse with little cost because they own ALL the infrastructure to make the PlayStation, which is what they where betting on BIG time with the Ps3.

Now MS has APPL eating at them for PC share. A failed business model with the Xbox, so far, and too keep fighting in that space they have to drop billions more to compete with a next gen console that has a manufacture that has a complete infrastructure line set up.

Or, they could, do what they did and add the Kinect to windows. Make their xbox live on windows a gaming "emulator" of sorts and focus on software again. Which is what they are lacking in.

If they lose the billions in losses, it goes back to what Clark was saying about their value. This also adds billions that can be spent on R&D for software development.

Then there are the ultra books, which are going to give tables a huge run for their money, so this guarantee MS growth in the tablet department. MS is also basically guaranteed to gain market share in the moble space because of their new phones that are licensed with NOK, LG, and others. Again this is all software, which is what made MS great in the first place.

Ballmer said he was going to take the company a "new" direction. Like Ty says, what's old is new.

SNE will also be a good one to look at once Japan is back in order. JMO

[Virgil Showlion]

OK. Excellent comments all, DI, Ham, and wxyz.

Talk about the things I didn't know and am glad I do now.

It ties in a bit with a TED talk I watched recently that showed Microsoft's share of all "web enabled devices" in freefall since 2005. The presenter was trying to make the point that personal computers would give way to tablets, smartphones, etc.—a thesis I don't agree with—but the charts would have made me nervous if I was a Microsoft shareholder.

As for online gaming, DI, it's a bit of an exaggeration to say that a game has to have a strong online component. I buy games exclusively for single-player use (for PS3 and high-end PC), and have always been able to find a few good titles when I go hunting. Online gaming is so ridiculously time consuming. And you're inevitably pitted against an army of 15-year-olds who've played the game 2,000+ hours apiece by the time you've accepted your first mission.

But I digress.

[rovo]

I might as well toss my opinion out here on MSFT.

I'm currently holding a few shares of MSFT which I purchased in 2010 (May & Oct.). At the time I had excess cash and needed to park it somewhere I considered safe with some dividends as compared to virtually 0% in a Money Market. My average buy-in cost was $27.644. I expect to exit this position this week and my sell-order price is currently at $29.40.

The stock has been up and down since my purchase and is currently in the green by 3.3% in addition to about 3% per year in dividends.

The only reasons I see for the recent increase in price are: 1. General market rising and 2. Media hype about the Windows Phone.

I expect the PC market to contract to about 50% of the current sales as tablets take over the average user. The PC will not die as there are many power users out there but the installed base will decline as stated.

It will take more than phones to save MSFT going forward with my expected decline in PC sales.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks for the comments from all. This sums up what I am hearing....

Jan 17, 2012 11:54:33 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

The real bottom line:

Their products suck. Can anyone name a blockbuster product they have released in the past 10 years? In addition their windows and other products are crap. I switched to all Macbooks a year or two ago. I have not been into the computer repair place since. When using msft products we were probably having to have things fixed at least 4-8 times a year. And those repair visits were NOT hardware problems.

That is exactly it. The Xbox was Bill Gates's, Spruce moose. Their operating systems started to suck because he had a vision of bringing the PC into the living room with the xbox, and lost focus on developing software.

MS was NEVER a hardware company, over the last 12 years they have been trying their hardest to be one.

In spite of all that, they are still the 3rd most valuable global brand, and they have been raking in money over the last 10 years. They are, and this a point that Frank makes, raising their div because they are flush with cash, even thought the have lost close to 10 billion on the Xbox division.

Microsoft is rated third most-valuable brand in the world, but there are dangers signs ahead
blogs.computerworld.com/19595/microsoft_is_rated_third_most_valuable_brand_in_the_world_but_there_are_dangers_signs_ahead

Just like we are talking about here, the article notes that APPL and GOOGLE are hot on MS tail. So MS and Ballmer know they have to do something.

Cutting billions in losses and not having to license a physical media from your competitor is the best place to start.

Adapting the one piece of Consumer electronics that has been a hit for you(kinect) into your biggest seller(windows) would be another move. Check.

NOK is the second largest phone suppler in China and one of the top two in the world. This will give MS a revenue stream they didn't have before.

Ulrabooks are going to give tablets a run for their money, because like people have pointed out on this thread, PC/laptops will not be replaced by current tables all together.

Again, this all leads up to them not dropping the Xbox, but not making another system that cost them billions in dollars of losses.

If you put all the money that MS has wasted on the console game back into the company on R&D, I believe that over the last 10 years MS would have continued to be a software powerhouse, instead of spreading themselves thin and letting competitors eat away at them on all angles.

Thoughts?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To go a bit more into the move I believe is coming and has been somewhat verified.

The Kincet now works with Windows. The next step is going to get all those Kinect games going on the CPU.. Xbox live is already on windows. These are all current facts. They're programs for PCs called emulators. They run ROMs which are old video games. It makes your CPU run in a certain fashion to optimize the old games. All they have to do is apply this concept to the 360(already old Xbox emulators on line).

As DI has pointed out, lots and lots of content is already on line for newer games. So the revue for the new on line Xbox is already there. Then they can license games like Gears of War, ect ,ect to SONY and make cash having all those exclusives now on the PlayStation platform, so they still can keep the MS studios running to produce games.

With the Xbox out of the way, this allows all of the Video game development team to work on one game, instead of one for each system. This will bring better titles to market, thus increasing overall revenue for the gaming industry. Which will still benefit MS.

To me this is a lot of added revenue when you consider that they won't be losing money trying to compete with a hardware manufacture like Sony, but will be making money off of them instead.

All that said. NOK is really starting to look good as this years growth story in tech.

[rovo]

I sold off my holding of MSFT this morning at $28.28 as there was no way I was going to hold this through tonight's earnings report. I even made a few bucks on the play. ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nice! Profit, profit, profit.

I think the best way to play this hunch is to wait, like Clark was saying, and pick it up around $22-24. It will hit $30 again, that will be decent gains with Div regardless of if my gut is right. They are still making money and wont go anywhere for a couple years, so I will be able to get out. But if my gut is right, there is some nice upside potential here. MS can work software channels again and really start to piggy back others. Which is what made them so successful in the first place.

Also, lets not discount that APPL still has monopoly trials on the way.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks for the input from everyone!

[The Virginian]

They should be looking to buy some hot new start ups with futuristic technology - this is their best hope of long tern survival.

Maybe their leadership should be forced to read massive amounts of science fiction to look for new ideas.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

For the longest time I would have agreed with you 110% wzyx. They have been terrible for 10 years. However, on the other side of that, they have maintained their brand power and size over the last 10 years. I bashed Microsoft for the longest time. I thought that the Kinect was going to be a total failure just like all the rest of their products. That is where I was wrong. That piece of equipment is really changing a lot of things. You seen how it is working on defecting asteroids in that link on the New fronter thread. It was developed after Bill left the company...

Now this is where it gets interesting.

I feel dumb because there was a better way to describe what the xbox could become. An APP. You DL it and run games. It could run on the Apple system. If not? Why? Boom, monopoly charge building.

So you could plug it in to your Ipad, Ultrabook pc, ect.. And have motion control on your living room potentially with of all these devices; and they obviously would all load up the Xbox app and play games as well. They already sell an xbox live memberships every year for $50 to some people.

Then windows eight is apparently going to be optimized for these touch ultra books. Since these touch Ultra books have been launched all other tables have been advertised with keyboards. They are going to work with these new phones. The key here is that since 2010 the xbox unit has been turning a profit. So they have had cash to spend on development. As Virg mentions Windows 7, better than vista, JMO, it's because they could spend more cash on it. Now again for windows 8, they have had more cash to spend on developing better software.........

There isn't a lot of other choices for office programs, they have programmers kits that sell for 8k for two users. Power point ect, ect. All these could have more R&D if they don't drop billions on another hardware system, and the could really push them on the iOS as well, If APPL dosen't like that another monopoly.

Plus you can't discount that the Video game industry is 9-10 Billion dollars a year. They still have all those titles, and more time to spend developing more because of cash for R&D, that could all be licensed to Sony to be sold on the PlayStation.

Like I said wxyz I hated MS forever, but the Kinect proved me wrong. Plus, you have to like that they operate all over the world, so if they really kick the software into hig gear there is a big slice of pie out there.

For me this would be a core holding for a couple of years at around $26 because of the 3%.. It's not going to die in 2-3 years because by that time they they will have either released a new Xbox or not

If my gut is wrong about the new Xbox, and the direction of the company, I will still be able to get out at around $30 when there is a rising market sometime with decent profits from growth, and the 3% annualy from the div.

[TD2K]

Drat, what do I do now? I was just planning on holding onto it till I could get long term capital gains tax treatment.


LOL.

[rovo]

Jan 21, 2012 12:27:24 GMT -5 TD2K said:

Drat, what do I do now? I was just planning on holding onto it till I could get long term capital gains tax treatment.

LOL.

Nah. Just hold it for the loss. Is a short term taxable gain better than a loss? If so, then exit next week. JMHO.

[The Virginian]

Drat, what do I do now? I was just planning on holding onto it till I could get long term capital gains tax treatment

Don't worry - they are still going to be around for years - if not forever if they get their act together.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL.. Classic. Looks like some type of bet setting up here... Profit, Profit, Profit... ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Anyone have any idea where this is going?

Microsoft Xbox Live Coming To Droids And iPads
www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/01/25/microsoft-xbox-live-coming-to-droids-and-ipads/

Kinect and Windows Phone combine to create holographic game engine (video)
www.engadget.com/2012/01/25/kinect-and-windows-phone-combine-to-create-holographic-game-engi/

Kinect Hack Lets You Make a Massive Touch Screen
www.itproportal.com/2012/01/25/kinect-hack-lets-you-make-massive-touch-screen/

Kinect HD set-top box tipped for Xbox LIVE TV plans
www.slashgear.com/kinect-hd-set-top-box-tipped-for-xbox-live-tv-plans-13209166/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 2, 2012 23:13:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It's been a little while since I posted some news on MSFT however my conviction has only grown over the last little while with the stories that have been surfacing that there will be no new xbox hardware.

There are rumors that the new xbox will have a tablet "controller" and further yet some people now think that widows 8 will be a part of the new xbox. With widows live going to the Apple ecosystem, the kinect going onto the PC/Tablet ecosystem it's getting more an more likely that there wont be an actual piece of hardware, but just an xbox APP that will run on any ecosystem out there, except the PlayStation. However MSFT studios can just license all of there hardcore gamer titles to Sony and make money off of the the PlayStation ecosystem that way.

Windows 8 was release for consumer preview today and over a million copies were downloaded on the first day. There have been demos of windows 8 running on 80 inch touch screens and from those demos it looks like Windows 8 is something entire new all together. HP is designing a tablet that will be out later this fall, it will run windows 8. With this addition MSFT now has an entire ecosystem lined up with windows 8 and they now have 8 phone manufactures running their new OS.

On that point, I have been watching NOK for a long time. It hasn't gone much lower that 4.80 but it hasn't gone much higher than 6 with for that last while. It really moves with the market. Seems like an easy trade(for anyone who trades out there) to make while the market is moving.

NOK is still HUGE, and APPL is having troubles in China, NOK's biggest market. The new windows phone will guarantee movement for the next year and they have this new competition that is touring around to show off the MSFT OS. If windows 8, the new "xbox", and these ultra books/tablets are a hit NOK is probably going to take off.

New Xbox To Feature Tablet Controller
www.webpronews.com/xbox-tablet-controller-2012-02?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

Windows 8: The Dawn of Xbox Everywhere?
www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/video-games/windows-8-the-dawn-of-xbox-everywhere-7038023?click=pm_latest

How to install Windows 8 on your Mac ;D
Microsoft has had over 1 million downloads of its Windows 8 Consumer Preview in just one day, Redmond says. But why should Windows users have all the fun? Today, we'll show you how to install it if you're a Mac user.
www.zdnet.com.au/how-to-install-windows-8-on-your-mac-339332910.htm

Microsoft's 3D Transparent Interface Makes Us Feel Like We're Living in the Future
www.pcworld.com/article/251202/microsofts_3d_transparent_interface_makes_us_feel_like_were_living_in_the_future.html

HP working on Windows 8 tablets using Intel, ARM chips: Sources
news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57385063-64/hp-working-on-windows-8-tablets-using-intel-arm-chips-sources/

Microsoft Windows 8 on 82-inch touchscreen hands-on (video)
www.engadget.com/2012/02/29/microsoft-windows-8-on-82-inch-gorilla-glass-touchscreen-hands-o/

Nokia's Bet On Microsoft Could Still Yield Payoff
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577253500322429364.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

Nokia Siemens gets Bharti Airtel 4G-network pact
www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-siemens-gets-bharti-airtel-4g-network-pact-2012-02-29

Smoked by Windows Phone reaches Hong Kong
www.neowin.net/news/smoked-by-windows-phone-reaches-hong-kong?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

Nokia 808 Pure View With Mammoth 41 MP Camera Unveiled (Specs List!), Global Nokia Lumia 900 Announced
www.mobilebloom.com/nokia-808-pure-view-with-mammoth-41-mp-camera-unveiled-specs-list-global-nokia-lumia-900-announced/2210581/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

UH-OH! ALL you Mac fans better start looking out!! ;D

Rumor: Sony to release Windows Phone 8 devices?
www.neowin.net/news/rumor-sony-to-release-windows-phone-8-devices?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

2-for-1: Can Windows 8 satisfy both the desktop and the tablet?
arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2012/03/microsofts-ambitious-step-into-the-future-the-windows-8-consumer-preview.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 22, 2012 22:52:44 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Once again MSFT crushes the rumors of a new xbox system this year. Considering that in 2005 Bill Gates himself seen the cloud as a threat to the PC industry, it shouldn't really be a surprise.

This new memo from 2005 that just surfaced, also shows that they know full well at MSFT that windows 8 has to be something new and exciting or it will lead to the end of MSFT.

The interesting thing is that MSFT isn't the only one now betting on a windows resurgence. AAPL has found itself coming under fire from all sides. Dell is team up with MSFT to go after AAPL, HP will be on the list and now NOK is getting in to the tablet game with a windows 8 tablet.

MSFT has come out and said that because of costs they think they will have no problem taking over AAPL in China. They can apparently make the WINphone profitable and cost 1/4 of what the Iphone does there. MSFT and NOK have also been working on some new tech that should have some interesting applications in the future.

Bill Gates' $160 Billion Nightmare: The Cloud That's Raining on Microsoft's Parade
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/bill-gates-160-billion-nightmare-the-cloud-that-s-raining-on-microsoft-s-parade/rfid543259184/?channel=pf

New Xbox In 2012? Microsoft Says No
www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/19/new-xbox-2012-microsoft_n_1362332.html

Gap Between PlayStation 3 And 360, Wii Continues To Wide <------ Shows just how much power the next xbox would need...
www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/10831.html

Dell: Partnering With Microsoft To Launch An Attack On Apple
seekingalpha.com/article/445861-dell-partnering-with-microsoft-to-launch-an-attack-on-apple?source=feed

Microsoft Says Windows Phone Will Pass Apple in China
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/microsoft-says-windows-phone-will-pass-apple-in-china.html

Windows 8 could be out by October
www.technolog.msnbc.msn.com/technology/technolog/windows-8-could-be-out-october-498702

Windows 8-powered Nokia tablet said to be in the works
techreport.com/discussions.x/22618?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

Nokia maps fightback against cheap Android phones
www.ecnmag.com/News/2012/03/Nokia-maps-fightback-against-cheap-Android-phones/

Microsoft releases Robotics Developer Studio 4, bring your own Kinect
www.engadget.com/2012/03/10/microsoft-releases-robotics-developer-studio-4-bring-your-own-k/

Microsoft cuts touchscreen lag to 1ms, makes other panels look silly (video)
www.engadget.com/2012/03/10/microsoft-cuts-touchscreen-lag-to-1ms/

Nokia seeks patent for vibrating tattoo
www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/03/20/Nokia-seeks-patent-for-vibrating-tattoo/UPI-46651332275835/

Oh ya, and lets not forget the MSFT dividend...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Forgot about these ones.

Windows Phone Outsells Symbian in U.K. Handsets, Study Says
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/windows-phone-outsells-symbian-in-u-k-handsets-study-says-1-.html

VimpelCom Outsources Central Russia Support to Nokia Siemens
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/vimpelcom-outsources-central-russia-support-to-nokia-siemens.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I thought I'd wait to post this until Apple was crowed King.. ;D.. The key in all this is that MSFT ALSO has good earnings and everyone thinks that NOK is a dog, everyone except Verizon and ATT. Who along with Dell, HP, HTC, and a slew of PC parts manufactures are mounting an attack on King Appl... With Appl's recent court battles while all this is going on, King Appl will have it's day in the SON and it's stock will probably shine for the next while no doubt . But don't discount the OLD kings power to bring on his kingdom, because this time the Law is on his side. ;D

Microsoft profit beats estimates
www.thestar.com/business/article/1164613--microsoft-profit-falls-slightly

Apple’s Dominance Has Carriers Cheering for Nokia Windows Phone
www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/apple-s-dominance-has-carriers-cheering-for-nokia-windows-phone

AT&T Confirms Verizon's Theory: iPhones Hurt
www.dailyfinance.com/2012/04/24/att-confirms-verizons-theory-iphones-hurt/

Microsoft To Unveil Windows 8 'Release Preview' Early June
www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/04/24/microsoft-to-unveil-windows-8-release-preview-early-june/

Microsoft Challenges Apple -- Intel Wins
www.thestreet.com/story/11506899/1/microsoft-challenges-apple--intel-wins.html

Revenge of the DevOps: Microsoft Targets Next Visual Studio for Admins Too
www.readwriteweb.com/hack/2012/03/revenge-of-the-devops-microsof.php

Microsoft's Entertainment Play
www.cnbc.com/id/46870959/Microsoft_s_Entertainment_Play

Just some more info on the whole, Xbox hardware sticking around theory, consider the info in the article above...

Microsoft’s Xbox Division Reports 48% Loss For Third Quarter, Blames “Soft” Gaming Console Market
zoknowsgaming.com/2012/04/25/microsoft-xbox-division-loses-229-million/

Why Microsoft Kinect is a Virtual Goldmine
www.moneymorning.com.au/20120425/why-microsoft-kinect-is-a-virtual-goldmine.html

Oh ya, and I promised that I wouldn't forget, DON'T FORGET THE DIVIDENDS!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well Mr Z. I said that the E3 show was impressive, but the thing that is really starting to show is that everyone is teaming up to go after apple, and MS is making cash off it all. They are making money off android and are about to release office for Ipad. The Windows phone out sold the Iphone in Russia and China in Q1 of this year, and that isn't even with windows 8, smart glass and voice command in your living room.

About THAT, that is where their E3 key note was interesting.. All the gamers thought that it was lame and I was all smiles.. Why? Because it was about everything else aside from gaming. We are talking all major sports are now on MSFT network. About 5 different video services and almost ALL major movie studios. They have it all linked together with Bing. So all you have to do is say "Xbox movies", "Xbox favorites", and a list pops up, you say the title and it shows you all the different video serves it's on. Since NO ONE has everything, as far as a video service, having all the major ones in one place makes it so that the MSFT network has access to almost all movies and TV show available. Then they released Xbox music.. 20 million tracks all across you Phone, home, and Tablet. People think Apple TV is a game changer, NO WAY.. Xbox TV/Music just blew it out of the water before it even arrived.

That's not all, they are ALSO bringing IE explore to the TV. So all these smart TV's out there will now have access to "XBOX", and you can use your phone(any smart phone) as a mouse. On top of that they partnered with NIKE. So with Kinect you now have the NIKE athletic labs in your home. This will be a network as well. It will link NIKE products with the KINECT and a world wide offline community. There is a universal standard and it allows people to compete with each other across the world. It's really something else.

They are also putting their cash to work buying things up like the old MSFT and apparently their new cloud storage system is something else.

IDK for sure, but this is looking like a company that is heading in the right direction and they have ALWAYS had massive cash flow even if they weren't "hot". I think the market will give us that sweet spot of around $24-26 on MFST this summer, oh ya and I can't forget the DIVIDENDS!

And some good news for NOK too....

More Windows smartphones than iPhones by 2016: report
www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/more-windows-smartphones-than-iphones-by-2016-report/article4235769/

Windows phones outsell iPhone during Q1 in China and Russia
hexus.net/mobile/news/windows-phone/39601-windows-phones-outsell-iphone-q1-china-russia/

Dell Windows 8 Tablet Specs Leak
www.pcworld.com/article/256250/dell_windows_8_tablet_specs_leak.html

Acer, Toshiba Said to Unveil Windows 8 Tablets in IPad Challenge
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/31/bloomberg_articlesM4WF8F0D9L3801-M4WUU.DTL

Computex 2012: Asus booth tour, new Windows 8 and Windows RT devices
www.zdnet.com/blog/computers/computex-2012-asus-booth-tour-new-windows-8-and-windows-rt-devices/8226

Windows 8 Hybrid Laptop-Tablets Take Center Stage at Computex
www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/256835/windows_8_hybrid_laptoptablets_take_center_stage_at_computex.html

Microsoft SmartGlass hands-on
www.engadget.com/2012/06/05/microsoft-smartglass-hands-on/

Microsoft Now Making Even More Money From Android
mashable.com/2012/04/25/microsoft-pegatron-patent-deal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy
seekingalpha.com/article/609881-microsoft-is-ready-for-a-buying-frenzy

Microsoft gets cloud storage right with new SkyDrive
www.cbsnews.com/8301-505143_162-57419607/microsoft-gets-cloud-storage-right-with-new-skydrive/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well MSFT has announce a "new Xbox", which has all the gamers speculating that there is a new xbox on the way. MSFT has come forward and said that it's not a new console, but part of the launch of Windows 8. At this point with how poorly Windows 8 has been received so far, the fact that their Hotmail business in in trouble unless they can capture a big portion of the living room entertainment industry over the holiday season and get some decent adaptation of their Windows phone in North America; there is a very good chance that MSFT is on their way to being the next RIM.

You can look back through this thread and see that I have given plenty of examples of how there could be a turn around at MSFT, however, it just seems that this company under current management cant seem to get much right. Sure the Xbox is currently the top selling video game console, however, there is noway that MSFT can make the kind of cash flow in the gaming industry as it was in the OS and Office business to off set the losses that they are potentially facing there.

This whole situation is why for Tech investing, personally, I like companies like BCE, it's all about long term infrastructure then.

Microsoft References ‘New Xbox’ for First Time
The new console is part of a "new wave of products that we could have coming out with Windows 8."
ca.ign.com/articles/2012/08/06/microsoft-references-new-xbox-for-first-time?utm_source=Monday%20newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=8.7%20Dynamic%20Newsletter_NO%20FNAME_6413_308235_308277&utm_content=15535685

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A little over a year ago I started this thread on the speculation that MFST could be on the verge of a turn around and outlined a few things that I believed that MSFT could be doing to bring about this change.  While some of those things happened the biggest things that would have contribute to this turn around are NOT happening.  For one there is a new Xbox on the way and Windows 8 was a complete flop as we can see with current PC sales, and it gets worse from there.  Because of the cost of development on a new game console MSFT is rumored to have less overall computing power than their competitor the PlayStation.  As the PC market fades away the PC gaming market will also fade away, leaving hardcore gamers in the wind and forced into choosing a console.  Most of these people are fanatics and some will be PISSED off at MSFT and choose the PS out of spite, others will choose the system that will have the most power, or not the Xbox.  

This is where AMD comes into the picture.  Not only is AMD making the chipsets for the new Nintendo, they are also making the chipsets for the new PlayStation, and the rumor is they will be making the chipsets for the new Xbox as well.  The last round of consoles in total are around 300 million world wide. Because of a cheaper entry point on hardware development the next generation is going to be lower in price off the start than the last.  With the PC gaming industry dying and a lower cost of entry on a new system there is no reason to think that this generation won't be on par with the last.  This means that AMD will mass produce over 300 million chipsets based on current tech for the next 6-7 years, and we all know how the cost of production in CPU parts goes down over time.  Seems to me the real winner in the next generation of video game systems is going to be AMD. 

AMD on Canada’s contribution to hardware behind the PlayStation 4, Wii U and (Xbox 720?)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

MSFT first quarter earnings were up 18% y-o-y however, taking that windows upgrade out of the picture,  revenues were flat.  When you factor in the large drop off in PC sales this is not good news at all.  However, on the AMD front, it would appear that the chips Sony and Nintendo are using are starting to show up as AMD first-quarter loss narrows by 75%. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 12, 2013 17:31:29 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

This is where AMD comes into the picture.  Not only is AMD making the chipsets for the new Nintendo, they are also making the chipsets for the new PlayStation, and the rumor is they will be making the chipsets for the new Xbox as well.  The last round of consoles in total are around 300 million world wide. Because of a cheaper entry point on hardware development the next generation is going to be lower in price off the start than the last.  With the PC gaming industry dying and a lower cost of entry on a new system there is no reason to think that this generation won't be on par with the last.  This means that AMD will mass produce over 300 million chipsets based on current tech for the next 6-7 years, and we all know how the cost of production in CPU parts goes down over time.  Seems to me the real winner in the next generation of video game systems is going to be AMD. 

AMD close to one year later....


Q3 (Sep '13) 2012
Net profit margin. 3.29% -21.82%
Operating margin 6.50% -19.55%
EBITD margin - -12.84%
Return on average assets. 4.69% -26.42%
Return on average equity. 48.56% -111.18%
Employees 10,340 -


An ROE increase of 150%.... Earnings coming up Jan 21 st. Looks like the first 7-8 million of the 300 million video game system chips is going to help AMD's bottom line quite a bit over the next five years or so.