There is no Canadian Housing Bubble!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some interesting news..

Economist trumpets local housing market, Berkeley community gets new builder:
www.postandcourier.com/news/2011/feb/05/realnews/

[Deleted]

People need to remember that California is a big state. San Diego has already bottomed while Riverside County is not going to see a pick up anytime soon.

[usaone]

Now would be the time to buy housing stocks. ;D ;D ;D

By the time everyone is convinced there is a recovery coming in housing its to late.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is great!

Rising Rents Could Be the Spark That Reignites Inflation:
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/press/rising-rents-could-be-the-spark-that-reignites-inflation/rfid412238165/?channel=pf

Inflation in what is the question... I know that some people know!

[domeasingold]

Feb 7, 2011 11:50:33 GMT -5 usaone said:

Now would be the time to buy housing stocks. By the time everyone is convinced there is a recovery coming in housing its to late.

I agree USA1.
What I have noticed lately is that there are builders now building "spec" houses where there has not been activity for the last 2 years or so. The area I live in are southwest suburbs of Chicago. Granted these are higher end houses. Original plans were for 5000 sf where now they have scaled them back to around 3500 sf. Prices I have seen ranged from $450K to $700K from $600K to $950K. Although I have not seem "affordable" homes yet.

[itstippy]

I ran into a woman I used to work with today. She retired last year. She wants to sell her house and move to a cabin up North with her boyfriend (how scandalous). She's underwater on the house. She had an offer, but the bank would not do a short sale and would not loan her the difference. She can't sell. She's irritated because if she were behind on her payments they would do the short sale, but since she's current they won't even consider it.

If she'd quit making payments on her mortgage a year ago she could have saved the $1,200 per month and put it toward the cabin. Instead she's current, honest, and screwed. Is this a great country or what!?!

[usaone]

Shes not screwed in my opinion. She just needs to be patient.

When housing turns its going to happen QUICK.

Look back at the early 1990's for reference.

If she can hang in there for 12 months or so I bet she wont be underwater.

[usaone]

If your looking to buy a home its never going to get better than the next 2 months in my opinion.

Prices and rates will be going up after that for a long time.

[usaone]

The big boys are starting to buy land again.

[itstippy]

It would sure solve her dilemma.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The big boys are starting to buy land again.

That is a good sign.

Thaks for the info ND!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Foreclosure notices dropped to a three year low in Jan, and architects seen a uptick in business in the last 1/4 of 2010!

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 21, 2010 1:57:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I was reading an article a couple weeks ago about a big builders CEO being optimistic for a bottom in 2011 and a recovery in 2012. Seems in line with what your saying.

We still haven't seen the effects of the 5 and 10 year ARMs that were closed in 2006 - 2007. I'd stay in your seat with your seat belt fastened, and your seat back and tray table in their upright and folded positions for awhile yet.

Now, I will agree that this is a market cycle-- there's nothing special about it, and housing WILL recover. However, we aren't going to see another boom for decades- it's probably conservatively a generation away from booming.

What we are going to get is localized housing shortages. In spite of all the inventory concentrated in a few bubble states like FL, NV, and CA-- there are places where, because of simple natural population growth, and the effects of the bubble zones bankrupting builders, and locking down credit for construction loans, and just plain fewer solvent builders willing to take the risks-- there will be a housing shortage. In some places, it will be severe.

Localized housing shortages are to me, the next big real estate story besides the obvious one-- where's bottom? I see it starting to show up on the radar in the next three to five years.

The bottom? I wouldn't be reaching for that falling knife just yet.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Jan 15, 2011 15:18:30 GMT -5 texasredneck said:

Cheap housing is not possible. The states mandate expensive licenses of the labor force, the cities want large lots and expensive utility tap fees. Even though the developers paid for the main lines years ago cities like Denison Texas charge $1,650.00 for the privilege of connecting your house. The banks charge high interest, require expensive insurance, require attorneys to draw all papers. The builder gets very little for his efforts.

$1,650 sounds rather inexpensive to me. Utilities are another sector where Americans have a rather strong sense of entitlement. The vast majority pay nothing like what it costs for what they use because utility rates are subject to various price fixing schemes.

So, it costs $1,650 to get hooked up to utilities- how much do people spend on window treatments? It cost more than $1,650 to paint my house-- twice as much.

I'm just pointing out that it's not exactly a reason for "expensive housing".

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some very interesting points.

What the Housing Market Is Signaling Now:
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/press/what-the-housing-market-is-signaling-now/rfid416334552/?channel=pf

With rents going up, the bottom line is that anyone that is looking at buying a house and paying less to own, is going to jump on a house when the economy is still going this summer. This will cause slight increases and more trigger pullers. Jobs. More increase.. snowball.

[lifewasgood]

Let's not forget the shadow houses that are not on the market but are vacant waiting there turn. Somehow we seem to forget that issue.

[dumdeedoe]

Tech stocks have never recovered from thier 1998 bubble. Housing will follow suite,,,, It went up to high, to fast, and fell to far,,, Both Housing and rentals are showing weakness right now meaning there are to many houses and rentals.
Speculators ran supply up past demand and the market collapsed.

But just like kman and "Impaler" keep saying: look at the micro picture and you can still find some locations that housing is going up. Just like you can still find some tech stocks that are out performing the market..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

If sales recover, prices will follow. The bottom I'm looking for is sales, not price.

Sales of U.S. previously owned homes unexpectedly climbed in January to the highest level in eight months as investors used all-cash transactions to snap up distressed properties.

[reasonfreedom]

I am curious as to who is purchasing these previously owned homes. Is it rich investors looking to sit on them for a few years to make a profit on them selling them at higher price values? Does that have an effect on the mid to lower class? How Would the possibility of interest rates going up in a few years also affect the economy?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We just offered on a sweet little house. It was built in 2005 only 1178 sq ft. The subdivision has empty lots here and there as it never got totally built out. We will know in a couple of days if we got it, $47,500, can you imagine? And yes an all cash deal, we ask for nothing but title insurance. Hubby does all the inspecting. We will need to paint, fix one window pane, a little hole in the kitchen ceiling, and replace carpeting. I would like to plant a couple of trees. It's small but not hurt. There was another we wanted more but its in the Home Path program for 8 more days and needs nothing, even included a new w/d for $54900. We may offer on it also, we shall see.

The taxes are right at $2200, HOA fees $200 per year, insurance, between $500 and a $1000 I imagine. So total expenses of $300 a month and they are renting for $950 a month. This was one of the lowest priced ones in the subdivision.

That's awesome pat, congrats to you and your husband. I luv real estate, one day I hope that me and my wife can do what you and your husband are doing. I'm not hoping for these conditions, don't get me wrong. However, rental properties, I like!

I hope you keep sharing stories patstab.. They are great!

Are you finding there is a lot of competition? I see you mention that you hope you get it.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL, no doubt, there are vehicles with bigger sticker prices. I need to get my pops down there. It's the time to buy. Even another 10% off a house at that price is only 5k. Any recommendations for areas?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I work for a property manager once and a while. I hear you about renters.. I like the idea of only raising when the turn over happens.. Do you apply that even in the situations where you have had renters for 12 yrs?? Thanks for the info pat.

[dumdeedoe]

here is a good pay site for homes in houston pat..
houston.tx.foreclosure-support.com/

[Virgil Showlion]

Congrats, Pat.

Despite the catastrophic nature of the housing collapse, there's no denying it's a buyers market.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yeah! Congrats to you and your hubby Pat!! Keep us up to date on what is going on.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

An interesting story for people in this area.

Good-sized homes sprout at new Ryland neighborhood off Hanahan’s flourishing Foster Creek Road:
www.postandcourier.com/news/2011/feb/12/chrlstnoak/

[reasonfreedom]

"The index of pending home resales dropped 2.8 percent after a revised 3.2 percent decrease the prior month that was initially reported as a gain, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington."

www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/pending-sales-of-u-s-existing-homes-decline-by-2-8-more-than-forecast.htm

Looks like sales are down. Seriously how do they report a gain and then it gets revised to a negative 3.2 percent. House value decreasing and sales decreasing, it doesn't look good.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL patstab! Great point. Also reason. Pending home sales aren't a very good indicator right now because cash sales are on the rise. December pending home sales, which would be reflected somewhat in Jan sales, were way off. Jan sales were up, the encouraging part. They are above last years levels which were pumped because on govt stimulus.

[reasonfreedom]

In the article it said Jan. sales were down, where do you get up?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

reason the "pending" sales are down in Jan. Sales were up

WRAPUP 3-US home sales rise, price slump points to weakness
www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/23/usa-economy-idUSN2315101320110223

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday
existing homes sales climbed 2.7 percent to an annual rate of
5.36 million units, marking the third straight month of gains.

US pending home sales in January downturn:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12598695

The index of "pending" home sales, published by the National Association of Realtors, fell to 88.9 from a downwardly-revised 91.5 in December.

Pat, that sounds frustrating. Also fits with what the numbers are saying. I posted this on another thread however, why not here too, eh?

Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash:
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703796504576168822497423738.html?mod=googlenews_wsj