The November Presidential election

[Value Buy]

As of this point, we do not know who President Obama's opponent will be, so let's just discuss the President and his "voting bloc" in 2008, and where this same bloc will stand in 2012.

The black vote- will remain decidedly in his camp, no changes....

Union bloc, will remain strong in his camp, but will decrease from 2008 as many union members feel, he did do anything for them in four years. Union vote will drop by about 5% over 2008

Hispanic vote-here, I am confused.
Will they follow the same trend as 2008? I do not have a clue.
Depends more on the Republican debates leading up to the Republican nomination. Romney will not lose the Hispanic vote automatically, but I believe Newt would not garner it.
I do not think the President has done enough to retain as much as high a percentage of their vote as he won in 2008.
Look for a vast Democratic tendency, but again, maybe a loss of 7% or so, for the President.

Independent vote- Here is where the President gets hurt. Loses between 13 and 17% to the Republican candidate

White female vote- again depends, on the Republican candidate.
Newt gains 5% over McCain, Romney about 15%.
Any event, the President slips here again.

White male vote- Goes to the Republican candidate, period. Big time.

Now the undecideds, or the "I feel good, let's elect a black man to the Presidency, because he will not win anyway" constituency.
They received a wake up call, when they swayed the election in 2008. It will not happen this time. Vast swing to the right from 2008.
States that will go Republican in 2012
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida
Indiana
Possible states to go Republican
Wisconsin
Virginia
New Jersey

Electoral College vote
Give the Republicans a 33 to 38 majority vote win.
I know this is early and things will change dramatically before November, but I am looking forward to anyone with well thought out arguments for and against my predictions, and feel free to list your prognostications!

[Deleted]

Your looking at this election a lot closer & in more detail than I am.
My only comment is that I just received an email from my SIL making fun of Obama & with a snide comment (by her) about him. That together with the knowledge that when I visit that state I just might be the ONLY person in the state (& I know that my wife & I are the only ones in the family) that doesn't vote democrat. I find that interesting. My guess would be that a fair percentage of democrats just might still feel democrat but vote republican because they don't feel democrat ideas work.

Going slowly down a socialism path is not the best way because the cracks in the ideas appear too quickly. I think (& hope)that "might" be happening now.

[djAdvocate]

it will come down to Ohio, PA, and Florida, as usual. if Gingrich wins, the GOP will lose all three. if Romney wins, too close to call:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[Deleted]

black vote - purely anecdotal but my black friends have been debating on FB whether or not they owe Obama any more support. There's a strong socially conservative strain in African American communities and from my friends statement they don't feel like he's particularly Christian enough. I think if they vote they will vote for him, the question is whether or not youth and minorities will turn out to vote for him in the same numbers they did in the last election. He's lost a lot of the excitement and momentum.

[Deleted]

www.thegrio.com/politics/youth-vote-wont-return-for-obama-in-2012.php

The article pointed out that deportations have gone up dramatically during Obama's administration so again voter turnout amongst hispanics may be an issue for him. I'm sure they'd vote for him if they went to the polls but are they going to?

[djAdvocate]

Jan 28, 2012 16:05:15 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

www.thegrio.com/politics/youth-vote-wont-return-for-obama-in-2012.php

The article pointed out that deportations have gone up dramatically during Obama's administration so again voter turnout amongst hispanics may be an issue for him. I'm sure they'd vote for him if they went to the polls but are they going to?

the youth vote was appallingly low in the last election. if they had voted in the numbers that the Obama campaign was hoping, McCain would have become the kind of historical doormat that Mondale is.

[Deleted]

The youth vote came out in numbers people haven't seen in decades for the 2008 election.

An estimated 24 million Americans ages 18 to 29 voted in this election, an increase in youth turnout by at least 2.2 million over 2004, reports CIRCLE, a non-partisan organization that promotes research on the political engagement of young Americans. That puts youth turnout somewhere between 49.3 and 54.5 percent, meaning 19 percent more young people voted this year than in 2004, estimates John Della Volpe, the director of polling for the Harvard Institute of Politics. And that’s a conservative estimate, Della Volpe says.

“It looks like the highest turnout among young people we’ve ever had,” says Della Volpe, adding that 12 percent more Americans in the overall electorate voted. The youth share of the vote also rose to 18 percent — a one-percent increase over the last three presidential elections.

“But I think one of the biggest stories is not so much the turnout but the balance of Obama versus McCain among young people — it’s pretty extraordinary,” says Peter Levine, the director for CIRCLE.

Exit polls show 66 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 preferred Obama and 32 percent preferred McMain. The gap closed among those ages 30 to 44 who preferred Obama 52 percent to McCain’s 46 percent. Among those ages 45 to 64, the vote was fairly evenly split between the candidates. Fifty three percent of voters 65 and older leaned toward McCain, compared to 45 percent who supported Obama.

“The reason he won the majority (of the overall vote) was the strong showing from voters 18 to 29. If you subtracted some of their turnout, or if you raised the voting age to 21, it’s a much closer race — or maybe he loses.”

[skweet]

Don't forget about the Ron Paul republicans that have been continually mocked by the media, as Mr. Paul's strength forced them to get scared. I am still hurting from the "wacko" comments describing my political views, and could not vote for either Mitt or Newt. Do I go Libertarian, non-voter or does one of the candidates make a worthy appeal. At this point 4 years of Obama seems more attractive than 8 years of Mitt/Newt or 4 years of M/N then another democrat. Maybe after 4 more years of Obama the republicans can field a credible candidate.

[handyman2]

It will be a close contest but Obama will lose. As far as the african American vote is concerned I have observed that the more educated ones have left the Obama camp. And some African American pastors in their churches are speaking out, saying he is no friend of theirs. Will be an interesting contest.

[Value Buy]

I just do not see the African American vote not showing up for the President.
First of all, the African American is a solid Democrat base. It is not going anywhere. Whether the young people will turn out, is a good point. We now have an entire new crop of young people entering the voting booth. Remember, The 18 year olds are now 22, so they are now no longer that group that was so enthralled in the 2008 election. They have been replaced by their younger brothers and sisters, and I do not know if they will show the same level of enthusiasm, as in 2008.
The Latino vote, is still dependent on the balance of the Republican primary talk, and how much time is spent on the illegal immigration issue, but I feel Romney could hold his own with that bloc.
Obviously, if the economy does not show much improvement, ot the unemployment stagnates anther six months at these levels, the Republican candidate wins in November

[djAdvocate]

Jan 29, 2012 23:11:43 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I just do not see the African American vote not showing up for the President.
First of all, the African American is a solid Democrat base. It is not going anywhere. Whether the young people will turn out, is a good point. We now have an entire new crop of young people entering the voting booth. Remember, The 18 year olds are now 22, so they are now no longer that group that was so enthralled in the 2008 election. They have been replaced by their younger brothers and sisters, and I do not know if they will show the same level of enthusiasm, as in 2008.
The Latino vote, is still dependent on the balance of the Republican primary talk, and how much time is spent on the illegal immigration issue, but I feel Romney could hold his own with that bloc.
Obviously, if the economy does not show much improvement, ot the unemployment stagnates anther six months at these levels, the Republican candidate wins in November

this is a very pragmatic perspective, and one that has been discussed at length on this board. if unemployment continues to fall, and GDP continues to rise, it is hard to envision Jesus himself beating Obama, let along Romgrich.

[Don Perignon]

The Republicans gave up the reins of power only after spending eight years undermining the Clinton Administration, followed by eight years of plundering the US Treasury in the guise of a "Just War" based upon "Faulty Intelligence"... i.e., lies.

And now they're furiously spinning scenarios and fabricating graphs and charts... in the hope of distracting Americans into forgetting who ran our Ship of State into the shoals.
Face the facts... it was the policies and practices of the GOP that put President Obama into the Oval Office.
Americans WILL remember... the GOP were the foxes that emptied the henhouse. They'll not be given the keys again for a LONG time. The tantrum will not be short-lived, and their wailing and their gnashing of teeth will continue unto their children's children.

[rockon]

I think the phrase "It's the economy stupid" will still have an impact in the foreseeable election. If any improvement happens anytime within the next 8 months it could completely change peoples perspective. Also depends on the Republican nominee but I think Mitt is the only one with an honest chance of beating Obama.
Unfortunately most voters will probably not even consider the most important factor of all. The insane spending that happened during the Bush administration ( don't forget the Democrats including Obama in congress) was used very effectively to send him packing has been doubled or tripled up on by this administration with a Democratic majority in congress. The Democrats will have to make every effort to keep the focus on anything but this issue since they largely used it to win the last election and have completely failed to move in a different direction.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 30, 2012 10:24:51 GMT -5 rockon said:

I think the phrase "It's the economy stupid" will still have an impact in the foreseeable election. If any improvement happens anytime within the next 8 months it could completely change peoples perspective.

it is already changing perspectives. Obama's approval has gone from -10 to about even in the last several months, as continuing improvement is seen in the economy. meanwhile, every major candidate other than Paul has seen their numbers drop relative to Obama. unless something shifts, it is going to be hard to beat Obama in the GE.

and it very well could. after the Osama Bounce, Obama was up significantly, and he fell right back down. it could happen again. the American public is very fickle.

[Value Buy]

dj, the President did not go from a minus 10 favorable rating.
It was 40% unfavorable to 50%
Big difference

[djAdvocate]

Jan 30, 2012 10:46:20 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

dj, the President did not go from a minus 10 favorable rating.
It was 40% unfavorable to 50%
Big difference

i am just using the standard reporting method. he went from 42/52 to 47/47. that is a 5% absolute movement, but a 10% relative movement. the relative movement is how it is reported, however.

[gavinsnana]

Jan 28, 2012 18:14:50 GMT -5 handyman2 said:

It will be a close contest but Obama will lose. As far as the african American vote is concerned I have observed that the more educated ones have left the Obama camp. And some African American pastors in their churches are speaking out, saying he is no friend of theirs. Will be an interesting contest.

'

Hoping this is true.

Americans were frustrated and voted for Obama hoping for change.. after 4 years they see nothing has changed.. except for the worst debt ever.. unemployement.. Obamacare (with the majoirty of Americans against it) If the Republicans win and its the same ole.. same ole.. then we will be on a political rollercoaster with nothing ever getting accomplished, except for the special interests groups.

IMO, if the gas prices go to $5, as predicted this summer. Obama will lose.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Jan 28, 2012 18:14:50 GMT -5 handyman2 said:

It will be a close contest but Obama will lose. As far as the african American vote is concerned I have observed that the more educated ones have left the Obama camp. And some African American pastors in their churches are speaking out, saying he is no friend of theirs. Will be an interesting contest.

Obama has an uphill climb, but if Romney gets the GOP nomination it'll be easier for Obama to win.

Obama's basic argument will be, "I don't hold any positions my opponent didn't hold until he decided to run for president on the Republican side of the aisle". In the meantime, Obama's billion dollar air war will be rip Romney a new one, and Romney will have no response- no credible ideological opposition to Obama in the debates, no enthusiastic grassroots support, no reply to the media that will be carrying Obama's water, and not nearly the money advantage he enjoys in the small ball GOP primary.

Romney is dead. Big government Republicanism died with Bush. That's how we got Obama, and that's how Obama will be re-elected.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Newt has a shot- his only disadvantage will be money, and that's a disadvantage any GOP candidate will have. Newt has a shot at a grassroots campaign, but while GOP voters might vote for him, there'll be no enthusiasm, no real support, and we're certainly not going to get up go out and work for Romney. And a lot of people like me who are conservative, but not necessarily Republicans are going to vote libertarian or stay home.

[Don Perignon]

As for the potential political effects of $5 per gallon gasoline... I hope Americans do not, in effect, allow those who manipulate gasoline prices to determine who will occupy the Oval Office.
If the future of the nation is solely in the hands of financial manipulators and speculators then we're doomed.

[gavinsnana]

Jan 30, 2012 12:23:12 GMT -5 Don Perignon said:

As for the potential political effects of $5 per gallon gasoline... I hope Americans do not, in effect, allow those who manipulate gasoline prices to determine who will occupy the Oval Office.
If the future of the nation is solely in the hands of financial manipulators and speculators then we're doomed.

If the outcome is Obama moving out, then I look forward to it.. and we are not doomed.

Obama, if he wanted a sure win, should have allowed the piping project from Canada to Texas. He may have swooned the Environmentalists, but he pissed of the Unions.

[floridayankee]

Jan 30, 2012 12:23:12 GMT -5 Don Perignon said:

As for the potential political effects of $5 per gallon gasoline... I hope Americans do not, in effect, allow those who manipulate gasoline prices to determine who will occupy the Oval Office.
If the future of the nation is solely in the hands of financial manipulators and speculators then we're doomed.

It's not all bad. Higher oil/gas prices increases the incentive for renewable / green energy. I thought you supported renewable / green energy solutions?

[workpublic]

If the future of the nation is solely in the hands of financial manipulators and speculators then we're doomed.

they already control the Fed and the Treasury Dept. obama did nothing to change that. no potus will/can.

we are already doomed. it's just a matter of time.

[Deleted]

The first federal election of 2012 is being held in my state tomorrow to replace Wu's seat. There's been a lot of outside money and organizations coming into the race so it will be interesting to see the results. The democrats have a 10 point lead on voter registration in this district.

[deziloooooo]

Jan 30, 2012 12:19:18 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Newt has a shot- his only disadvantage will be money, and that's a disadvantage any GOP candidate will have. Newt has a shot at a grassroots campaign, but while GOP voters might vote for him, there'll be no enthusiasm, no real support, and we're certainly not going to get up go out and work for Romney. And a lot of people like me who are conservative, but not necessarily Republicans are going to vote libertarian or stay home.

Interesting comment of yours, at least to me..

You have shown that politically you have a interest yet you actually suggest that you might stay home in a election , in this case because a candidate does not measure up exactly as you might want?

I could never do that..possible because I never expect a candidate to measure up beyond say 50 % of what my wants are and accept hat as the norm...even if they claim a higher % I do know when push comes to shove more practical happenings would be happening and politically certain sacrifice have to be made..but to stay home...absolutly never.

Actually to vote for a Republican..as much as I look at their desires and posts..very, very rarely when push comes to shove will that ever happen for me..and I think that is not a uncommon thing..with so many voters , both sides..almost why bother go through all the motions..say two months of electoring and then "puff " the election already..save a lot of time and Money .. ;D

[Value Buy]

Dezi, we get that you are a Democrat.
Now tell us who will win in November, the President or the Republican nominee.
Pick some swing states and tell us who they will go for, and why you have come to that conclusion.
I honestly think we can have a good thread, if everyone cooperates, and puts some thought into their answers.
Start with you home state. Florida is definitely a swing state this fall.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 30, 2012 12:19:18 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Newt has a shot- his only disadvantage will be money

no, Paul. that is NOT his only disadvantage. he has a really bad temper. he tends to think ONLY of himself, despite rhetoric to the contrary. the establishment HATES him, and for good reason: he is NOT a team player. Democrats hate him even more. if he became president, the divisiveness of the past 3 years will seem like a fantasy of high fives and cooperation. this is reflected by his personal approval, which, again, makes Obama's numbers look great. he has more people that disapprove of him, and only HALF as many that approve, for a whopping -30 rating (far worse than Bush). he is self absorbed to the point that he thinks he can win this on personality rather than organization, and he is a CRAPPY organizer.

no, his flaws as a candidate are very deep, and if he somehow manages to make it to Super Tuesday, you are going to get to see just how much that matters.

[dumdeedoe]

the future of the nation is solely in the hands of financial manipulators and speculators then we're doomed.

they already control the Fed and the Treasury Dept. obama did nothing to change that. no potus will/can.

we are already doomed. it's just a matter of time

8.93 million barrels of gas a day usage in the US.(that's 375 million gallons a day.) at a ave. cost increase of 1.75 a gallon from pre 2004 prices= 650 million a day or 237 billion a year in income that is switched over to oil companies...not including price increases because of that oil....

I guess as long as the oil companies are good stewards over the money and put it back into the economy we have nothing to worry about....

I wonder how JPMorgan is managing the oil companies money?

goldsilver.com/new/big-banks-cash-in-on-commodities/

[deziloooooo]

Jan 30, 2012 19:35:58 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Dezi, we get that you are a Democrat.
Now tell us who will win in November, the President or the Republican nominee.
Pick some swing states and tell us who they will go for, and why you have come to that conclusion.
I honestly think we can have a good thread, if everyone cooperates, and puts some thought into their answers.
Start with you home state. Florida is definitely a swing state this fall.

Florida has definitly swung to the right in the past elections..especially in the North and the major cities of the South..Miami..and the liberal Northerners are not coming down in the #'s as they did in the past..other places for them to retire too..

Hopefully , from my perspective, I would hope enough of the pubs do get upset with who ever is the front runner and candidate for their party and do stay home, allowing Obama and the Dems to have a better chance but I am afraid here the pubs may have it..Unemployment very high still here..not that the salarys were high for average workers, teachers and such compared to other parts of the country but still work is work..

I still like Obama but admit he will not have a easy time of it..however he has offered programs to help where as the other side , IMHO, have done nothing of the sort or if did offer some ideas , they were offered tongue in cheek and knew they would not going to be accepted in any ways..to little to really help out those in need but that is not the pubs way anyway..they always seem to have a higher calling..or it's what they beleive anyway.. ;D

I like the experience he , POTUS, has gotten over the past three years..mistakes were made, expected, not all things panned out as planned, also expected..but good programs were presented and some good legislation proposed and some actually made it all the way..

On these cuts that are mandatyed the [politicals are already crying and moaning..see the proposed base closings.."ok but not my State yadda yadda..

[Sum Dum Gai]

Well for starters I think you could be wrong about Obama losing ground on the female vote depending on who wins the republican spot. I don't see a whole helluva lot of women going for a dude that cheated on and left his first wife while she was hospitalized with cancer, and cheated on his second wife for years before leaving her when she was diagnosed with MS. I wonder how long he'll keep the current model, and if he's already cheating on her?

I'm not saying all women vote on personal issues, just that Newt's past is pretty likely to cost him with that particular group of voters.