2012 Predictions

[Deleted]

This thread will be devoted to your predictions for the 2012 calendar year


DOW...closed 2011 @ 12217
S&P....closed 2011 @ 1257

My predictions for 2012

DOW @ 12925
S&P @ 1320

Megacap dividend stocks will again lead the way. 2012 will be uneasy, and the flight to quality companies continues. Manufacturers and chemical companies will see above average returns

Big winners in 2012 (20% or more in return)

MTW (if strike ends)
MAS

Big losers will continue to be financial stocks, especially big banks

I dont see big returns....but it will be far better than the treasury yields. Good luck to those who invest....no matter what your preferences are.....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Good point G. I don't really call numbers, however, I believe the "swoosh" will continue as well.

[Deleted]

MAS 12/30/11 10.48 now 11.92 up 13.74%
MTW 12/30/11 9.19 now 11.10 up 20.78%

Not bad for just under two weeks

And DOW chemical is also on the run

So far, i like 2012

[Deleted]

Update on numbers 02-03-12

DOW @ 12848
S&P @ 1343

MAS @ 12.90 now up $ 2.42 for year
MTW @ 15.71 now up $ 6.52 for year


Dow Chem @ 34.15 from $ 28.76 up $ 5.39 for year

The year is definitely starting out great!

[thyme4change]

My prediction - this is the year Lindsey Lohan will either succeed or come darn close to succeed in a suicide attempt.

[kman]

I disagree...Murder suicide

[traelin0]

My 2012 prediction is much easier to make: More Americans will renounce their citizenship than last year, just like the year before that, and the year before that, and...

And this is only going off the numbers the IRS reports, which is based on the magic number of $2 million in taxable income (or whatever that number is now). God knows what the real number is, all I know is that a few years ago there was a 9 month waiting list at the US Embassy in Bern.

[usaone]

Feb 17, 2012 14:09:55 GMT -5 @patstab said:

My husband works overseas and there are people begging to come here. If those want to leave let them, we have many willing to work and find the American Dream and will get here if they can.

Tax rates in other countries are very very high IF they can make any money. I don't think people have any idea.

And yes he knows, as he has worked 11 years all over the world.

Some people have no idea.

[traelin0]

Feb 17, 2012 14:09:55 GMT -5 @patstab said:

My husband works overseas and there are people begging to come here. If those want to leave let them, we have many willing to work and find the American Dream and will get here if they can.

Tax rates in other countries are very very high IF they can make any money. I don't think people have any idea.

And yes he knows, as he has worked 11 years all over the world.

Not sure where your husband works, but yeah, if I lived in somewhere like Bosnia or the Middle East I'd want to come here, too. It's all relative. But like I said, if people want to stay in a country that has absolutely no rule of law, that's on them. I can name several countries off the top of my head that have more freedom, less taxes, and friendlier business environments. Generally speaking, the people I've found that want to stay in the US are the ones sucking the most out of the system or are still living in the mindset that moving more than 50 miles from one's birthplace is scary.

We're headed to greener pastures over the next couple of years, God willing.

Point being is that the trends of producers leaving is obvious skewed in one direction. Producers are leaving this country in droves and the trillions sitting on the sidelines is never going to come back to a country whose citizens don't earn it and demand the rule of law. When you have registered Democrats like Steve Wynn even saying that this country is a wet blanket on business, it speaks volumes.

[traelin0]

Feb 17, 2012 19:07:31 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

I can name several countries off the top of my head that have more freedom, less taxes, and friendlier business environments.

I would be most interested in that list.

Every now and then I drop hints but then again, I'm only concerned about the VAT with respect to certain items, property rights, banking system stability, and upholding of contracts. And preferably it would be a developing nation where the govt. doesn't have the tax revenue to suck the marrow out of the producers' bones.

I also prefer nations that have had recent currency hardships and therefore embrace production over consumption. Lessons like currency issues seem to be lost every 4th generation or so.

[traelin0]

Feb 17, 2012 19:11:26 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Feb 17, 2012 19:09:31 GMT -5 @traelin0 said:

Every now and then I drop hints but then again, I'm only concerned about the VAT with respect to certain items, property rights, banking system stability, and upholding of contracts. And preferably it would be a developing nation where the govt. doesn't have the tax revenue to suck the marrow out of the producers' bones.

Well, if you ever get it narrowed down to one, let me know.
Big fat Karma in it for you.

Well here's one I was debating about researching last night, although the climate is not really my thing: Iceland. Best free speech protection in the world. Recent currency crisis. Hard-working people. Shrugged off demands of bankers. Not sure what the VAT is on gold but they meet a lot of my criteria.

[traelin0]

Feb 17, 2012 19:25:55 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Feb 17, 2012 19:15:50 GMT -5 @traelin0 said:

Well here's one I was debating about researching last night, although the climate is not really my thing: Iceland. Best free speech protection in the world. Recent currency crisis. Hard-working people. Shrugged off demands of bankers. Not sure what the VAT is on gold but they meet a lot of my criteria.

Iceland=Freeze my tush.
What did you mean when you said this:
And preferably it would be a developing nation where the govt. doesn't have the tax revenue to suck the marrow out of the producers' bones.

Yeah, Iceland is beautiful but abso-friggin-lutely too cold for me year-round. Not sure what the tax system is like there, either. However in terms of many/most liberties (maybe not guns, again haven't seriously researched it due to climate issues mentioned above), they beat America hands down. So it's all relative, some people may like it more than others. From what I've been reading there are a host of authors and journalist types flocking there due to the speech and expression liberties.

Me personally, I am strongly leaning toward certain countries in Asia and South America. I have even considered a certain African country if we are talking 10 years from now, due to where I see it going and how many billions China is investing in its infrastructure and port facilities.

What I meant by my last point is that developing nations like America in the 19th century don't have enough govt. revenue to implement absolutely insane policies like wars of choice, unmanned drones occupying domestic airspace, etc. Preferably the country has recently experienced hardships such as shitty govt. with a currency crisis to boot, but have chosen a different path afterwards instead of constant "Mugabe" politics. Mongolia is a very good example of a country rich in resources, underdeveloped, but in the right region of the world and with an incredibly hard-working populace.

[traelin0]

Feb 17, 2012 19:46:27 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense. I might like South America.
When done, you should compile all your information and put it on a web site.

Well it will be part of my site blog once I get the framework completed. I still have to iron out issues like where I want to incorporate, which is ironically what led me down this path to begin with. I am petrified to start a business in this country, too many unknowns.

[The Virginian]

It speaks volumes when Americans start dreaming of immigrating to other countries. - Yes I have even thought about it myself but unfortunately my family - is not willing to even consider it.

I haven't researched it either but a couple of South American countries look nice, Canada would be an option, and most of the Scandinavian countries. I always loved Spain, I know they are in trouble now but it could work to your advantage when investing in property - just make sure you can provide for yourself.

At the rate we are losing freedom in the US in ten more years almost all countries will start to look better.

I hear you can live like a King in the Phillipines off of Social Security!

[rovo]

I'm in the very early stages of looking at Dominica as a potential refuge.

[usaone]

Feb 17, 2012 20:01:31 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

I am petrified to start a business in this country, too many unknowns.

I agree 100%!!!!

Taxes have never been lower. There are always unknowns.

Iceland or the US? Tough choice.

[traelin0]

Feb 18, 2012 13:44:26 GMT -5 usaone said:

Feb 17, 2012 20:01:31 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

I agree 100%!!!!

Taxes have never been lower. There are always unknowns.

Iceland or the US? Tough choice.

Of course they've been lower, much lower. Just go back to 1912.

Nowhere on this planet is perfect, although we came close when we were a Republic without a doubt. For those married to reason instead of a flag, the most "patriotic" thing to do is to export philosophy to a nation with a lot of upside potential. And there are a host of nations with upside potential.

I just can't in good conscience raise two young children in a country that rewards graft, expects me to pay for the destruction of entire countries, for the groping of the elderly and children at airports, for the possibility of indefinite detention of American citizens, etc.

It's both immoral and mentally insane. It reminds me of something Bill Murray said in Groundhog Day: "I don't need to take this from you. I have a line of women waiting to treat me like this!"

When Americans quit voting for morons and actually show a bit of intellect and even a modicum of self-independence, capital flows will come back. But not until then. It's easy to bash small countries like Iceland. And it is not a place I'd personally choose to live at the moment. But at least their populace had the balls to stand up to bankers. What have Americans done other than piss and moan?

[texasredneck]

Thought it was time for a review.

Gdgyva is going to be close on her prediction. She made hers Jan2nd, can you make your's today and finish any closer.

[Steady As She Goes]

Dec 11, 2012 14:44:23 GMT -5 texasredneck said:

Thought it was time for a review.

Gdgyva is going to be close on her prediction. She made hers Jan2nd, can you make your's today and finish any closer.

HER ? ? ? ? ? ?


That's why they put that little Gender indicator over there on the left where HIS avatar is........


Take a look........... it says
Gender: Male

[texasredneck]

My bad. Now what is your prediction?

[texasredneck]

My bad. Now what is your prediction?

[Deleted]

as of this moment

MTW 12/31/11 9.19 now 15.88 6.69 72.79% return
MAS 12/31/11 10.48 now 16.58 6.10 58.20% return

these were my two top picks....not too bad

now....if i can do as well in 2013

[The Virginian]

Megacap dividend stocks will again lead the way. 2012 will be uneasy, and the flight to quality companies continues. Manufacturers and chemical companies will see above average returns

Nasdaq ended up outpreforming the DOW this year (2012) but I still believe in the Big name Dividend stocks - I gained 9.65% this year not bad I think. Slow and steady wins the race.

[Driftr]

Jan 3, 2013 15:32:02 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Megacap dividend stocks will again lead the way. 2012 will be uneasy, and the flight to quality companies continues. Manufacturers and chemical companies will see above average returns

Nasdaq ended up outpreforming the DOW this year (2012) but I still believe in the Big name Dividend stocks - I gained 9.65% this year not bad I think. Slow and steady wins the race.

You beat my 7.7% total gain for the three accounts I'm managing, but I bet you're not holding on to something with such a nice trading loss as I'm carrying with WHX. I think NMM also had a pretty crumby year. I have that loss I can take some day as well. So there! ;-)

[Deleted]

drftr

comparing losses is NOT the idea for market picks lol

sometime next week i will do a 2013 thread

i will give out one tidbit.....homebuilders will rule the roost in 2013 (now if i can find one i am WILLING to buy at current prices)

Masco will also shine again in 2013 (may just go that way)

[Driftr]

Well, it wasn't the 'win' I was hoping for, but believe it or not I do look for silver linings wherever they can be found.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nice post pat! 

It's amazing what people will convince themselves of eh? Question, I believe that the east will go one of two ways.  Pockets of civil unrest will continue to pop up as people push for a better war or basically a war like we had in Europe during ww2.  Thoughts?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I gotta say pat, it sure seems like it's all about bringing things into balance to me.  Thanks JC.   

After Bulgarian Protests, Prime Minister Resigns
www.nytimes.com/2013/02/21/world/europe/bulgarian-government-is-reported-set-to-resign.html?_r=0

“The people gave us power, and today we are returning it,” Mr. Borisov said on Wednesday morning in Parliament, according to local news reports.

[Deleted]

When Americans quit voting for morons and actually show a bit of intellect and even a modicum of self-independence,

Funny thing. We have a gay friend that politically votes for the side that is most gay friendly (I bet you can guess which side ). Well I was just talking to them the other day & they were told that there is a good chance that their government job might be suspended or even go away because of severe cut backs in the future. This is a pretty smart person that never saw this coming because they focused on 1 issue in this election. I don't even know if I find this sad or not. (they are a real nice person & a great worker).

What was it I heard the other day. Something about the Sandy relief package being passed. I think that it was 11 billion dollars in Sandy relief & 48 billion dollars in pork tied to the package. Congress never learns.

[Deleted]

This thread will be devoted to your predictions for the 2012 calendar year


DOW...closed 2011 @ 12217
S&P....closed 2011 @ 1257

My prediction is a 20 to 40 percent drop in both of them. Gas prices going up & inflation being a problem. I also think that our credit rating could be down graded again & we could have another recession.