djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2011 11:32:04 GMT -5
and ROMNEY is in the lead.
oddly, SANTORUM has made a big jump in the last week, and is now tied for 3rd.
i still think this is between Paul and Romney, and i am fairly certain that Romney is going to win it. but it is absolutely too close to call.
who do YOU think is going to take it?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Dec 30, 2011 11:44:56 GMT -5
I don't know. If I had to hazard a guess I would say Romney. I will say I think Romney will be the eventual nominee regardless of what happens in Iowa. I agree.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 30, 2011 12:06:12 GMT -5
and ROMNEY is in the lead. oddly, SANTORUM has made a big jump in the last week, and is now tied for 3rd. i still think this is between Paul and Romney, and i am fairly certain that Romney is going to win it. but it is absolutely too close to call. who do YOU think is going to take it? What is "winning" in Iowa? IOWA
The rules for Republican delegate selection in the Hawkeye state are no different than they were in 2008. FHQ could leave it at that, but let's dig into this a bit because the process in Iowa merits some discussion.
First of all, no one will know anything about exactly how the 28 Republican delegates from Iowa to the Republican National Convention in Tampa will be allocated until after the state convention. As of this writing, no date has been set for that convention. It was held in mid-July in 2008. That is a point after which the Republican presidential nomination is likely to have been decided -- unless you buy into all this terribly premature and very [Let me emphasize that more: VERY] unlikely brokered convention talk. This is notable because, according to the Constitution and Bylaws of the Republican Party of Iowa, "no delegate shall be bound by any pre-convention caucus and each county shall cast its vote by polling its delegation at the [state] convention."2
In other words, Iowa's non-binding precinct caucuses on January 3 will have very little to do with the ultimate allocation of delegates in the state. Now, as I've mentioned, it is naive to assume that there is no transference of presidential preference from one step of the caucus/convention process to the next -- that a Paul supporter can't make it through the process to the state convention, for instance -- but the fact that the state convention will take place after the nomination is wrapped up makes the point moot. Those 28 delegates will likely go to Tampa lined up behind the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/2012-republican-delegate-allocation.html Thoughts: If Romney does not show "strong" based solely on talking head reports, he "loses" in Iowa. Nothing short of domination (which is very unlikely) will be a "win". If Paul does show "strong" (again talking head reports is all that matters), he "wins" in Iowa. Otherwise, he "loses". If Santorum is talked about in any terms other than "It's over for him", he "wins" in Iowa. The same is true of Bachmann and all other candidates not specifically named in this post. No matter what happens, Gingrich neither "wins" nor "loses" in Iowa.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2011 19:11:08 GMT -5
party pooper!
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Dec 30, 2011 20:18:27 GMT -5
and ROMNEY is in the lead. oddly, SANTORUM has made a big jump in the last week, and is now tied for 3rd. i still think this is between Paul and Romney, and i am fairly certain that Romney is going to win it. but it is absolutely too close to call. who do YOU think is going to take it? I said Romney awhile back, and I am sticking with that prediction.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2011 21:39:07 GMT -5
i think you are right, cereb.
what is interesting, at least to me, is that there are almost no "undecideds" at this point. if they fall proportionately, the race is too close to call. which means that Romney will likely win. he is leading in 3 of the last 5 polls, and tied in one.
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Don Perignon
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Post by Don Perignon on Dec 30, 2011 23:02:36 GMT -5
Polls only reflect the opinions of the people who are polled... and conspicuously exclude the opinions of those who decline to be part of a swindle. There is only one poll that truly signifies, and that poll will be taken at the voting booths next November. All the lipflapping that precedes it is nothing but hot air at work producing illusion and nothing more.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2011 23:10:43 GMT -5
Polls only reflect the opinions of the people who are polled... and conspicuously exclude the opinions of those who decline to be part of a swindle. There is only one poll that truly signifies, and that poll will be taken at the voting booths next November. All the lipflapping that precedes it is nothing but hot air at work producing illusion and nothing more. polls are generally a lot more accurate than that- particularly exit polling. distrust of polls is actually a serious problem in America, because when elections go very wrong, and the polls show it, nobody will trust that something just happened that was dreadfully wrong.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 31, 2011 12:41:09 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 13:05:08 GMT -5
definitely. his voters are less committed.
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handyman2
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Post by handyman2 on Dec 31, 2011 13:22:00 GMT -5
Keep in mind these polls do not accurate reflect a large portion of those who will vote. If I were a betting person I would bet on Ron Paul by a 3% margin. Romney has spent a lot of capital in Iowa not that it assures anything. But winning Iowa does give a big momentum boost in terms of money and exposure to the top candidate. The other factor is that people polled do not always tell the truth. They will say what they think the pollster wants to hear. Keep in mind Romney is a New Englander and that can be a negitive in several western states and the south. I also think Paul will win South Carolina also. Then there goes Georgia. Newt is the has been.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 13:25:37 GMT -5
Keep in mind these polls do not accurate reflect a large portion of those who will vote. If I were a betting person I would bet on Ron Paul by a 3% margin. Romney has spent a lot of capital in Iowa not that it assures anything. But winning Iowa does give a big momentum boost in terms of money and exposure to the top candidate. The other factor is that people polled do not always tell the truth. They will say what they think the pollster wants to hear. this phenomena is actually overrated. it does happen, but the affect is fairly small.Keep in mind Romney is a New Englander and that can be a negitive in several western states and the south. I also think Paul will win South Carolina also. Then there goes Georgia. Newt is the has been. i don't see any evidence to support a Paul win in SC. what makes you think that is a possibility?
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Don Perignon
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Post by Don Perignon on Dec 31, 2011 13:35:46 GMT -5
You say Romney is a "New Englander", I dispute that. He was born and grew up in Michigan, his father was Governor of Michigan. Then he attended Brigham Young University in Salt Lake City, did a little Mormon missionarying in France, and finally went to Harvard for his MBA. He became Governor of Massachussetts only because the voters there were looking for an outsider. No, Romney's NOT "a New Englander", not by my account.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 13:47:27 GMT -5
You say Romney is a "New Englander", I dispute that. He was born and grew up in Michigan, his father was Governor of Michigan. Then he attended Brigham Young University in Salt Lake City, did a little Mormon missionarying in France, and finally went to Harvard for his MBA. He became Governor of Massachussetts only because the voters there were looking for an outsider. No, Romney's NOT "a New Englander", not by my account. didn't know that, anti. thanks for bringing it up. Bush was not a Texan, but he sure ran that way.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2011 14:08:06 GMT -5
The PPP numbers were about the most accurate non-affiliated pollers in the 2008 election cycle. Their figures also have been the most consistent this go around. A lot of the polling figures from CNN and elsewhere have plenty of media bias. For instance, the CNN poll that showed Romney in the lead and Santorum surging in 3rd, excluded Independents and Democrats. Independents make up the largest voting block in Iowa, so their poll, while interesting, has no bearing on actual results.
FWIW, the PPP poll that came out after Christmas had Ron Paul +4 over Romney. It also showed Romney with a double digit lead in NH.
I don't see much changing between now and Jan 3rd. Paul wins Iowa, gains a little momentum, but not enough to overtake Romney in NH.
The Gingrich ship continues to take on water, but the South is his strength. He may take SC and FL. Paul loses steam in the South, but will see some resurgence in the West. Romney does enough beat back Paul and Gingrich, and with his big bank money supply, easily outlasts the other candidates.
Notice that Romney has not been attacking Paul much at this point. He's not stupid; he knows he needs the Ron Paul supporters to defeat Obama in the general election. The real question is if Paul isn't the R nominee, does his 10-15% fervent national following settle for Romney in the general, or do they say screw the R party and vote for Gary Johnson 3rd party Libertarian.
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humok
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Post by humok on Dec 31, 2011 14:13:33 GMT -5
Interesting anology but I think you are wrong about the south and Paul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 14:14:48 GMT -5
The PPP numbers were about the most accurate non-affiliated pollers in the 2008 election cycle. Their figures also have been the most consistent this go around. A lot of the polling figures from CNN and elsewhere have plenty of media bias. For instance, the CNN poll that showed Romney in the lead and Santorum surging in 3rd, excluded Independents and Democrats. Independents make up the largest voting block in Iowa, so their poll, while interesting, has no bearing on actual results. FWIW, the PPP poll that came out after Christmas had Ron Paul +4 over Romney. It also showed Romney with a double digit lead in NH. I don't see much changing between now and Jan 3rd. Paul wins Iowa, gains a little momentum, but not enough to overtake Romney in NH. my question is if Paul has enough momentum to beat GINGRICH in NH. right now- i am thinking YES. Gingrich comes in 3rd. the other interesting question in Iowa is whether Santorum has enough momentum to push Gingrich into FOURTH. again, i am thinking YES.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 14:16:01 GMT -5
Interesting anology but I think you are wrong about the south and Paul. i tend to agree, humok. as much as i like Paul, he has not really "connected" meaningfully with Southern voters. he is languishing in the single digits, with no sign of movement.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2011 14:28:45 GMT -5
my question is if Paul has enough momentum to beat GINGRICH in NH. right now- i am thinking YES. Gingrich comes in 3rd. the other interesting question in Iowa is whether Santorum has enough momentum to push Gingrich into FOURTH. again, i am thinking YES. Gingrich is toast in NH and Iowa. Have you been watching the trends? He was previously in the 25% range in both states...his ship is sinking. PPP NH Poll 12/29 Romney 36% Paul 21% Gingrich 13% Hunstman 12% Bachmann 7% PPP Iowa Poll 12/27 Paul 24% Romney 20% Gingrich 13% Bachmann 11% Perry 10% Santorum 10% Also, the Santorum surge was created solely by Fox News. He may squeeze out a 3rd or 4th in Iowa because he's literally spent his whole campaign there...but reality hits when he goes to NH where's polling at 3% with Buddy Roemer.
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humok
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Post by humok on Dec 31, 2011 14:31:08 GMT -5
And you base that opinion on what dj?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 31, 2011 14:31:16 GMT -5
Did LBJ win the 1968 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire or did he just get more votes than anyone else?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2011 14:33:44 GMT -5
Interesting anology but I think you are wrong about the south and Paul. i tend to agree, humok. as much as i like Paul, he has not really "connected" meaningfully with Southern voters. he is languishing in the single digits, with no sign of movement. Right, as was my point. I think he loses steam in the South, but then may see a resurgence in the West. Paul would actually benefit if Newt is able to hold on to SC and FL. If Romney takes NH, SC and FL...I'd say it's pretty much over.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 15:13:39 GMT -5
And you base that opinion on what dj? polling data. nothing more, or less. he is at 6% in those states, with no sign of positive movement. believe me, i would like nothing more than Paul winning those states. i mean it. i just don't see it happening.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 15:14:51 GMT -5
i tend to agree, humok. as much as i like Paul, he has not really "connected" meaningfully with Southern voters. he is languishing in the single digits, with no sign of movement. Right, as was my point. I think he loses steam in the South, but then may see a resurgence in the West. Paul would actually benefit if Newt is able to hold on to SC and FL. If Romney takes NH, SC and FL...I'd say it's pretty much over. i think that Romney has a good shot in Florida. i suspect he will be leading when new polls come out. not sure about SC, but i will note that there is a HUGE amount of undecided vote in that state.
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handyman2
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Post by handyman2 on Dec 31, 2011 15:28:15 GMT -5
Romney has his tent pitched in Mass so in the souths mind he is a nor-easter. Remember the south has shifted to a bigger balance between republican and Democrat but they are still southern at heart. They love straight talkers like Paul. Call a spade a spade. Florida has a lot of seniors from the north but what many do not know a big group are winter birds and still have their voter registrations in the north. So they will not be of any help to Romney in Florida. The big group vote is the Cuban vote and they are swinging to Republican and Paul if I am not mistaken is for relaxing relations with Cuba and that is worth a lot of Cuban votes.
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handyman2
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Post by handyman2 on Dec 31, 2011 15:29:15 GMT -5
Message deleted by handyman2. oops double clickagain
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2011 15:45:27 GMT -5
PPP is currently in the field in Iowa collecting last poll before Jan 3rd caucus. Results will come out tomorrow night.
Latest tweets from PPP:
"Iowa still looks very close between Paul and Romney but Santorum's within striking distance and has all the momentum."
"BTW crying only works with Democratic voters, Newt clearly out of the top 3 and has upside down favorability in Iowa."
With Bachmann's campaign in shambles, and Newt plummeting, Santorum has been the biggest recipient of the moving votes in Iowa.
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Post by skweet on Dec 31, 2011 16:59:17 GMT -5
Ron Paul supporters include a large group of people that do not qualify as "likely republican voters". Open primaries give Ron Paul a 5-10 point boost from polls. Paul wins Iowa, possibly bigger than 5 points. (Romney could take third). NH likely Romney's 5+. South Carolina can still be anybody's, likely Gingrich or Paul, depends on how fast Gingrich is falling, and where that support goes. Fl goes to Romney. If Romney were to lose NH, I could see the "Old Guard" big government Republicans scrambling out of the Romney camp and his 20%-25% support floor being gone. Then the election would be crazy. States going to Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Huntsman, Santorum...you name it. If he wins IA and/or NH, his support stays and he is the nominee with low popularity. Anywhere Latinos vote big, and are willing to register republican will add to Paul. ETA: this would affect his support in some Southern states.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 31, 2011 20:26:45 GMT -5
Ron Paul supporters include a large group of people that do not qualify as "likely republican voters". Open primaries give Ron Paul a 5-10 point boost from polls. Paul wins Iowa, possibly bigger than 5 points. (Romney could take third). NH likely Romney's 5+. South Carolina can still be anybody's, likely Gingrich or Paul, depends on how fast Gingrich is falling, and where that support goes. Fl goes to Romney. If Romney were to lose NH, I could see the "Old Guard" big government Republicans scrambling out of the Romney camp and his 20%-25% support floor being gone. Then the election would be crazy. States going to Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Huntsman, Santorum...you name it. If he wins IA and/or NH, his support stays and he is the nominee with low popularity. Anywhere Latinos vote big, and are willing to register republican will add to Paul. ETA: this would affect his support in some Southern states. interesting speculations. Romney's floor is closer to 15%. i doubt Romney will only win NH by 5. more likely 10-15. i also seriously doubt he will be 3rd in IA. otherwise, i agree with you.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 3, 2012 23:05:07 GMT -5
congratulations, diamonds, you got your wish (i predict). ;D
update: i spoke too soon. it is still too close to call. i thought that all of the urban precincts (where Romney is leading handily) had reported. i was wrong.
Santorum is kicking ass in the red counties. way ahead. but there are very few votes there. so it is a total tossup. we won't know how this ends up until the very end.
second update: Romney is leading by 13 votes. that's right. thirteen.
third update: Santorum by 18. i think the margin will be smaller, based on the makeup of the TWO precincts left to report.
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