djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2021 14:50:12 GMT -5
there will be collateral damages from CV19, too.
for example, cancer screenings are WAY down in the last (18) months. if you developed cancer during that time, it might already be too late, whereas if you had caught it a year ago, it might have been treatable. that kind of thing.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jul 27, 2021 15:20:42 GMT -5
Ahem, will you both, please, de-escalate and de-sexualize your metaphors just a tad. I'm appalled by the degree of violence and pain that we're at.. Also, let's not use metaphors that imply the destruction of reproductive ability. That's playing with fire.
Can't we just stick to metaphors rhat involve shoving sharp things under our fingernails?
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jul 29, 2021 16:54:40 GMT -5
Delta produces curves, and relationships between new cases curves, hospitalization curves, and new Covid deaths curves that are hard to believe or understand.
Be prepared to disbelieve what is coming at you, and then come to believe it. Delta seems to have a tendency to produce crazy, scary numbers of new cases and then plummet in a way that also doesn't make a lick of sense according to what you've learned in the last year in a half.
New case numbers shoot up so fast that when they start to drop, you think that the drop is due to the testing capacity being overstretched to the point that nobody tries to test. When hospitalizations continue to increase after new cases appear to drop, you may be convinced that the data that you are looking at is bad / garbage/ capacity-constrained.
There is some weird stuff coming at you curve-watchers. It's going to be really hard to believe that Delta drives cases up that fast and then seems to recede at pretty much the same clip.
I've been checking out the WHO covid dashboard to get some corroboration of how the virus is behaving in developed countries that the NYT's Coronavirus coverage doesn't cover. So far, it's been oddly, completely unexpectedly, happy news. In places where testing and hospitals did not get overwhelmed or test results delayed or triaged, Delta went straight up and straight down.
I certainly hope that right up and down just as fast is what happens here.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 29, 2021 17:01:02 GMT -5
new cases hit a 5 month high in the US today.
herd immunity is about 3 years away at this rate.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jul 30, 2021 10:30:31 GMT -5
Is that three years a WAG, or is there someone out there still trying to estimate what threshold we'd have to reach and when we'll get there, assuming of course, that something more infectious than Delta doesn't emerge?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 23, 2021 2:03:41 GMT -5
i just read this tonight:
A research letter published in April calculated 522,368 excess deaths in 2020, an increase of 22.9% over 2019. Earlier this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated 545,600 to 660,200 excess deaths from Jan. 26, 2020, through Feb. 27, 2021.
so, we were at 600k six months ago, with a 10% MOE. I don't know what that means for today, but it is way more than what we are showing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 23, 2021 2:04:40 GMT -5
Is that three years a WAG, or is there someone out there still trying to estimate what threshold we'd have to reach and when we'll get there, assuming of course, that something more infectious than Delta doesn't emerge?
that's three years of the 40% refusing vaccinations.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 15, 2021 17:49:58 GMT -5
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 15, 2021 18:05:41 GMT -5
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Sept 15, 2021 18:25:30 GMT -5
I share her outrage too but her math and logic bother me immensely. I'm sure that she entered everything correctly into her calculator, but she was unconscionably sloppy about the rest. Her opportunistic use of cumulative data disgusts me.
It bothers me a lot that you are applauding this. This vid is not an example of logic or math.
ETA. I really should have said more and gone into more detail about how someone who I perceive to be "on my side" is abusing statistics and basically talking out of their <deleted>. I'm probably being extremely tribal by not pointing out just how irresponsible she's being.
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Post by andi9899 on Sept 16, 2021 7:27:42 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 16, 2021 8:25:39 GMT -5
I share her outrage too but her math and logic bother me immensely. I'm sure that she entered everything correctly into her calculator, but she was unconscionably sloppy about the rest. Her opportunistic use of cumulative data disgusts me.
It bothers me a lot that you are applauding this. This vid is not an example of logic or math.
ETA. I really should have said more and gone into more detail about how someone who I perceive to be "on my side" is abusing statistics and basically talking out of their <deleted>. I'm probably being extremely tribal by not pointing out just how irresponsible she's being.
Is she wrong in her assertion that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to catch Covid or die from Covid than unvaccinated people?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 16, 2021 8:29:27 GMT -5
I do appreciate a smart young woman enthusiastically doing STEM activities on a TicTock.
Helps to offset the plague of vapid young ladies in elaborate makeup using photo enhancement tech to make duck face glamour shots of themselves to post.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 16, 2021 8:41:48 GMT -5
I share her outrage too but her math and logic bother me immensely. I'm sure that she entered everything correctly into her calculator, but she was unconscionably sloppy about the rest. Her opportunistic use of cumulative data disgusts me.
It bothers me a lot that you are applauding this. This vid is not an example of logic or math.
ETA. I really should have said more and gone into more detail about how someone who I perceive to be "on my side" is abusing statistics and basically talking out of their <deleted>. I'm probably being extremely tribal by not pointing out just how irresponsible she's being.
Is she wrong in her assertion that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to catch Covid or die from Covid than unvaccinated people? No - but bad math is bad math and it doesn't make arguments look good when you use it. I HATE the math that Covid is 99.9997% survived because someone takes the number of dead and divides it by population of the world. It is such a dumb argument that I know whoever said it is such a fuxking idiot that they aren't worth my time. They are so dumb, I barely consider them human. And it lessens the entire Covid is survivable to most argument. 1-2% is a lot of deaths, but I would rather get a Covid diagnosis than pretty much any cancer, or whatever. So, there is some validity in their argument, but I can't talk to them if they are so blantly stupid about their math. And, if someone on the other side sees this math and it weakens the entire argument for vaccines, I get it. There are people who believe research should now be spent on treatment. Clinging to Ivermectin is a poor choice, but they do have some things that work. If they threw unlimited resources at that could we treat Covid effectively and efficiently? That would then be available for people who can't vaccinate or breakthrough cases. I'm firmly in camp vaccine - but trying hard to hear the best ideas from the other side. It is hard because of all of the bad math and anger.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Sept 16, 2021 9:42:25 GMT -5
Is she wrong in her assertion that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to catch Covid or die from Covid than unvaccinated people? No - but bad math is bad math and it doesn't make arguments look good when you use it. I HATE the math that Covid is 99.9997% survived because someone takes the number of dead and divides it by population of the world. It is such a dumb argument that I know whoever said it is such a fuxking idiot that they aren't worth my time. They are so dumb, I barely consider them human. And it lessens the entire Covid is survivable to most argument. 1-2% is a lot of deaths, but I would rather get a Covid diagnosis than pretty much any cancer, or whatever. So, there is some validity in their argument, but I can't talk to them if they are so blantly stupid about their math. And, if someone on the other side sees this math and it weakens the entire argument for vaccines, I get it. There are people who believe research should now be spent on treatment. Clinging to Ivermectin is a poor choice, but they do have some things that work. If they threw unlimited resources at that could we treat Covid effectively and efficiently? That would then be available for people who can't vaccinate or breakthrough cases. I'm firmly in camp vaccine - but trying hard to hear the best ideas from the other side. It is hard because of all of the bad math and anger. THat is being worked on. But it requires information on what is going on to know what to do. So far, most attempts have been with medications "on the shelf", and it has not worked out so well. More research into how COVID makes people sick is needed, so we can have a better idea of how to treat it. That takes time. If we are interested in saving lives while the above is going on, we need to focus on mitigation and prevention. We will not have a treatment that works better than prevention, and vaccinations will be the intervention that saves the most lives. If you look at the HIV pandemic, it took years to find really effective treatments. It wasn't until the 1990s that we found the class of drugs that are the mainstay of treatment today. It took about 20 years and countless lives lost to make HIV into a manageable chronic disease. Medical research takes time, and time is the enemy.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2021 21:05:42 GMT -5
her data is partial. that is the problem. she is comparing instantaneous data with long term data. and yes, it is a lousy comparison.
but her sentiment resonates.
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Post by Opti on Sept 20, 2021 16:56:32 GMT -5
This does not surprise me as I think AL is in the number 5 slot right now in deaths per Million. LA just passed NY and took third place. On the other hand looks like 28 states still need to report numbers today including AL. www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/alabama-reports-more-deaths-than-births-for-the-first-time-ever-due-to-covid-pandemic/ar-AAOE0f6?ocid=msedgntpAlabama Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris said the state's "preliminary numbers" recorded 57,641 births and 64,714 deaths in 2020 as the country experienced a rise in positive cases of the coronavirus.
"This past year, 2020, is going to be the first year that we know of in the history of our state where we actually had more deaths than births," Harris said Friday during a press conference. "Our state literally shrunk."
He continued, "That's never happened before nor has it ever even been close before. In World War II or during the flu pandemic of 1918 or World War I, we've never had a time where deaths exceed births until this past year and it certainly possible that could happen this year as well if we continue in the same rate that we're seeing now."
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Post by haapai on Sept 22, 2021 10:36:56 GMT -5
Here's a snippet.
Americans may be able to breathe a tentative sigh of relief soon, according to researchers studying the trajectory of the pandemic.
The delta surge appears to be peaking nationally, and cases and deaths will likely decline steadily now through the spring without a significant winter surge, according to a new analysis shared with NPR by a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The modelers developed four potential scenarios, taking into account whether or not childhood vaccinations take off and whether a more infectious new variant should emerge.
The most likely scenario, says Lessler, is that children do get vaccinated and no super-spreading variant emerges. In that case, the combo model forecasts that new infections would slowly, but fairly continuously, drop from about 140,000 today now to about 9,000 a day by March.
Deaths from COVID-19 would fall from about 1,500 a day now to fewer than 100 a day by March 2022.
There's a graph on the page that I can't figure out how to grab and paste. It looks dodgy to me.
There's both print and audio versions of the story and both are dripping with skepticism and caveats. As of now, I just can't work up the courage to click on the link that links to the source of the story to get more details. I'm afraid that I'll explode with disgust when I find out what they've feed into those models. I don't expect anything like what they predict to transpire.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Sept 22, 2021 10:45:04 GMT -5
Oh crap! It's worse than I thought. The last data that they threw in was from Sept 11, right after reported cases started going wonky because of the Labor Day interruptions in testing and reporting.
They've taken data that they know to be flawed and used it as the jumping-off point for their model. What a waste of electrons and reputations!
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Sept 22, 2021 11:06:14 GMT -5
I think the odds of no new variants are low. I was hoping this would end sometime in 2022, or at least the worst of it be over, but I'm losing faith in that short timeline.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Sept 22, 2021 11:15:55 GMT -5
I have no problem with the "no new variant" assumption and it's well disclosed. What worries me are their assumptions regarding vaccination rates increasing and how much immunity is being acquired through infection. Their assumptions regarding vaccine efficacy could also be garbage if they use pre-Delta data.
GIGO is quite likely.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2022 0:16:49 GMT -5
the Covid Curve is heading sharply lower from our massive peaks a couple months ago.
the death curve is not cooperating however, for some reason. we are still losing over 1000 per day. and the result is that we will soon pass 1M dead.
oc, if you are still reading this: my very cynical prediction is going to come true.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2022 1:20:38 GMT -5
to set the record straight, i was almost 18 months off on the timing of this, and three major variants of the virus, and a vaccine,......etc.
in other words, the prediction was based on NOTHING good happening (nor anything bad, like the variants). so, the combination of all of those impacts were that we slowed it down.
the vaccines probably saved 3M people or so. nothing to shrug off. it is a big deal. so, congrats for getting those vaccines in the arms of (particularly) vulnerable people.
the original prediction if we did everything RIGHT was that 50k would die. so the excess deaths due to doing things wrong were roughly equal to the total deaths. within 5%.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 14, 2022 10:16:37 GMT -5
to set the record straight, i was almost 18 months off on the timing of this, and three major variants of the virus, and a vaccine,......etc. in other words, the prediction was based on NOTHING good happening (nor anything bad, like the variants). so, the combination of all of those impacts were that we slowed it down. the vaccines probably saved 3M people or so. nothing to shrug off. it is a big deal. so, congrats for getting those vaccines in the arms of (particularly) vulnerable people. the original prediction if we did everything RIGHT was that 50k would die. so the excess deaths due to doing things wrong were roughly equal to the total deaths. within 5%. Well, I guess we have to wait a few weeks and see where this leads us. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/shenzhen-tightens-shipping-rules-to-cut-infections-virus-update-l0q1wikc
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Post by haapai on Mar 14, 2022 10:35:07 GMT -5
the Covid Curve is heading sharply lower from our massive peaks a couple months ago. the death curve is not cooperating however, for some reason. we are still losing over 1000 per day.and the result is that we will soon pass 1M dead. oc, if you are still reading this: my very cynical prediction is going to come true. Despite what PMD has told us about how long a person can be hospitalized with Covid before dying, I have to wonder how much reporting delays are the reason why so many deaths are still being reported.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 14, 2022 11:10:08 GMT -5
We have people we transferred to tertiary care hospitals from january who are still there, so some of this is what we see. Given the political nature of reporting deaths, there may be some delayed reporting see.
But we are still having 35K infections a day. 2 weeks ago it was about 70k. So I believe the persistence of the death rate has to do with the recent wave.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2022 11:52:24 GMT -5
We have people we transferred to tertiary care hospitals from january who are still there, so some of this is what we see. Given the political nature of reporting deaths, there may be some delayed reporting see. But we are still having 35K infections a day. 2 weeks ago it was about 70k. So I believe the persistence of the death rate has to do with the recent wave. could it be some other variant with higher mortality is buried in the data?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2022 11:53:35 GMT -5
pmd- you checking out South Korea? it is a raging bonfire of Omicron. they are approaching half a million cases per day.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 14, 2022 12:16:40 GMT -5
to set the record straight, i was almost 18 months off on the timing of this, and three major variants of the virus, and a vaccine,......etc. in other words, the prediction was based on NOTHING good happening (nor anything bad, like the variants). so, the combination of all of those impacts were that we slowed it down. the vaccines probably saved 3M people or so. nothing to shrug off. it is a big deal. so, congrats for getting those vaccines in the arms of (particularly) vulnerable people. the original prediction if we did everything RIGHT was that 50k would die. so the excess deaths due to doing things wrong were roughly equal to the total deaths. within 5%. Well, I guess we have to wait a few weeks and see where this leads us. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/shenzhen-tightens-shipping-rules-to-cut-infections-virus-update-l0q1wikc"China is in trouble" was one of the takeaways in last Thursday's Osterholm Update. Unfortunately, they are no longer providing transcripts of podcasts, so I can't point you to a link to the transcript or grab and paste from it. The best that I can do is try to remember what was said. Omicron is just too infectious to stop with the tactics that China has relied upon before. It will break through and the consequences of it breaking through will be tragic. The Chinese have done a lot of vaccination but they have done a relatively poor job of prioritizing elderly people for second and third doses. (Yes, I find this shocking, but he has the stats to back it up.) The efficacy of their vaccines against Omicron is highly questionable. The strategy of isolating all known cases cannot be sustained and the number of hospital beds available per capita is less than a third of what the US has.
It's going to get very bad, very quickly and there will be a lot of deaths.
If you want to take a deeper dive into what he had to say. Here's a link to last week's podcast. He starts talking about China at about seven and a half minutes but things don't get interesting until about 9:40. His statement that China is in trouble comes at the very end of the podcast at about an hour and two minutes.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 14, 2022 12:23:37 GMT -5
We have people we transferred to tertiary care hospitals from january who are still there, so some of this is what we see. Given the political nature of reporting deaths, there may be some delayed reporting see. But we are still having 35K infections a day. 2 weeks ago it was about 70k. So I believe the persistence of the death rate has to do with the recent wave. could it be some other variant with higher mortality is buried in the data? Unlikely. Since most countries sample virus variants, it would have been found by now if it is causing this many deaths. It would have to be causing a substantial numbe rof infections to impact the data this way. Just more of the same we have seen before. Deaths lag, as hospitalizations fall, a higher proportion of those hospitalized are in the ICU with severe COVID, and they are far more likely to die. As we have seen previously, deaths remain stubbornly high for some time. I have lost interest in tracking the pandemic worldwide. I just follow my association news feeds to get information about other parts of the world I need to track. Need a break after 2 long years
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