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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 11:57:34 GMT -5
it is reasonably safe to assume that Democrats will win the house. I doubt that there will be much change there.
the real interesting battle this time will be the Senate.
it is safe to assume that Doug Jones will lose his seat, which gives the D's 46. after that, it gets super interesting. the following FOUR seats are too close to call at this time:
McSally- appointed to fill McCain's vacated seat, she already lost one statewide election in AZ Gardner- a red dot on a blue map, he won during the Trump landslide, but the landscape has changed Collins- she has generally managed to beat back her opponents, but has shown little gumption to stand up to Trump in a blue state. Tillis- 1st term Senator in a swing state (NC), this will be interesting depending on who is running against him.
if Democrats sweep those 4 states, and nothing else goes wrong for them, they will win a Senate majority if they win the WH.
I don't think this is the most likely outcome, unfortunately. but the situation is quite different than 2018, when Democrats were defending the majority of the seats, and few were vulnerable. now the GOP is defending the majority of the seats, and there are quite a few vulnerabilities.
stay tuned.....>!
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 11:58:17 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 30, 2019 14:19:36 GMT -5
... Gardner- a red dot on a blue map, he won during the Trump landslide, ... He was elected to the Senate in 2014. link
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 30, 2019 14:27:09 GMT -5
Great resource! Thanks for sharing.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 16:30:02 GMT -5
... Gardner- a red dot on a blue map, he won during the Trump landslide, ... He was elected to the Senate in 2014. linkreally? it was that long ago? I thought he was a midterm election (not full term).
my bad.
and...dayum. I am getting old.
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Post by thyme4change on Dec 30, 2019 18:22:18 GMT -5
I don't consider Colorado a safe blue state. I thought it was red for state wide. It has the problem that a lot of states have. Wild, wild west rural red voters, but big blue cities to make politics weird. The reputation of the state often comes from how hippy dippy the reputation of the city. Boulder / Denver come across as pot-riddled outdoorsy weirdos, so maybe their cities are blue enough, but Western Colorado is no place to put a drive around in a Leaf with a Bernie sticker.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 18:54:46 GMT -5
I think this can be said of ALL nominally blue states, and most of the red ones.
the defining characteristic of our electorate is the percentage urbanization. the more urban a state, the more blue it is.
ever been to downstate Illinois? hickville. neo-Nazi land. no, I am not kidding. that Hunter Duncan dude? the whackadoodle who was the first congressman to vote for Trump? he comes from a rural part of California. he won his last election WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT. he is absolutely crazypants. it would be hard to find someone more whackadoodle right than him in ANY Red state.
in short, this blind man and elephant analysis of state leanings doesn't work for me. it is a rural urban divide, period. and the more rural, the more red the state is.
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 30, 2019 19:48:17 GMT -5
I think this can be said of ALL nominally blue states, and most of the red ones. the defining characteristic of our electorate is the percentage urbanization. the more urban a state, the more blue it is. ever been to downstate Illinois? hickville. neo-Nazi land. no, I am not kidding. that Hunter Duncan dude? the whackadoodle who was the first congressman to vote for Trump? he comes from a rural part of California. he won his last election WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT. he is absolutely crazypants. it would be hard to find someone more whackadoodle right than him in ANY Red state. in short, this blind man and elephant analysis of state leanings doesn't work for me. it is a rural urban divide, period. and the more rural, the more red the state is. I live in a dark red district of a deep blue state.
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 30, 2019 20:01:46 GMT -5
I think this can be said of ALL nominally blue states, and most of the red ones. the defining characteristic of our electorate is the percentage urbanization. the more urban a state, the more blue it is. ever been to downstate Illinois? hickville. neo-Nazi land. no, I am not kidding. that Hunter Duncan dude? the whackadoodle who was the first congressman to vote for Trump? he comes from a rural part of California. he won his last election WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT. he is absolutely crazypants. it would be hard to find someone more whackadoodle right than him in ANY Red state. in short, this blind man and elephant analysis of state leanings doesn't work for me. it is a rural urban divide, period. and the more rural, the more red the state is. This will not happen until at least 2022 midterms, but red districts could pick up some seats in the House. Of course there is a chance red districts in bllue states may get removed in the blue states as a consequence too. The blue states when redisiricted, have to consolidate at least one district down and the red areas can be moved around towards a dominate blue district sitting on the map next door thus removing a red seat. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/montana-poised-to-get-second-house-seat-post-census-report/ar-BBYtrbT?li=BBnb7Kz
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 30, 2019 20:39:42 GMT -5
Not to challenge what has been said but a minor wonky correction to this from the link;: The official reapportionment of congressional representation is expected to be completed by the end of next year. Actually March 31, 2021: By this date, the Census Bureau will send redistricting counts to states. This information is used to redraw legislative districts based on population changes. link New maps should still be in place for the 2022 midterms.
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 30, 2019 20:50:32 GMT -5
Not to challenge what has been said but a minor wonky correction to this from the link;: The official reapportionment of congressional representation is expected to be completed by the end of next year. Actually March 31, 2021: By this date, the Census Bureau will send redistricting counts to states. This information is used to redraw legislative districts based on population changes. link New maps should still be in place for the 2022 midterms. I imagine some states will not meet the deadline. Not sure if it is Federally mandated to be done by the primary season, since the states have to have the correct district boundaries in place by then to have the districts correctly drawn and listed.......and I imagine there will be lawsuits on gerrymandering, etc slowing the process......
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 23:54:52 GMT -5
it is more likely that the Democrats will do very well next year and implement their own version of Project Red Map. and yes, Republicans should be very concerned about that.
of course, if they did the RIGHT thing, they would get out of Gerrymandering all together by appointing non-political boards like CA did. if that were to happen, it would still be devastating for the GOP.
in short, unless something goes drastically wrong for Democrats in 2020, 2016 was the high water mark for the GOP.
but this is not to discount the GOP's chances. the Democrats have a habit of doing drastically wrong things.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 8, 2020 21:42:03 GMT -5
in he four "tossup" Senate races:
1) Maine: Collins has a commanding lead, with or without a 3rd party independent in the race in the ONE poll done to date. 2) Colorado: Hickenlooper has a commanding lead over Gardner. 3) NC: Smith has a comfortable lead over Tillis. 4) AZ: Kelley has been slowly expanding his very narrow lead over McSalley. this is the race with the MOST polling data in it- there have been six polls in the last 10 months.
in short, the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate are likely to fall to Maine, and they are not looking very good there. but there is only one poll, and it is getting quite old at this juncture.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 9, 2020 11:02:00 GMT -5
the other possibility is Doug Jones retaining his seat. I have him slated to lose it. he is the most vulnerable Democrat in 2020.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jan 9, 2020 13:56:32 GMT -5
the other possibility is Doug Jones retaining his seat. I have him slated to lose it. he is the most vulnerable Democrat in 2020. Yeah, I think he loses it.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jan 9, 2020 14:15:21 GMT -5
The child molester is trying to run again, isn't he? +
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 9, 2020 14:18:07 GMT -5
The child molester is trying to run again, isn't he? + yeah. but against J. Sessions. it is probably more likely that Jones wins than the child molester.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 14, 2020 0:31:23 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2020 16:06:27 GMT -5
the generic ballot is moving sharply in favor of Democrats right now. they now have a 7% lead. this is the best position they have been in during this campaign, and the trend is quite good for Democrats. to update the polling in the five closest races: in Maine, the Democrat is widening her lead over Collins. Collins continued support of Trump is starting to have an impact on her, as voters in ME are pretty clearly moving against Trump. no new polling in Colorado, but Hickenlooper is seen as the favourite there. no new polling in Alabama, but Sessions is seen as the favourite there. in Arizona, Mark Kelley is slowly widening his lead over McSalley. this race is on a similar trajectory to that of Maine. in NC, there is no new polling, but the last poll had Smith ahead of Tillis by 7% as of today, the Senate forecast is a 50-50 split. we need new polling in three of five of these races. liveable world has more up to date information, and calls these races more closely, but also throws in a few other states as competitive. I think the Democrats have a real shot of getting a majority this year. note: Democrats probably need to win four of the above 5 races, unless something surprising happens in one of the other states (like, for example, Kentucky or Georgia). livableworld.org/an-early-look-at-2020-senate-elections/
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Post by alabamagal on Mar 7, 2020 16:38:47 GMT -5
The child molester is trying to run again, isn't he? + yeah. but against J. Sessions. it is probably more likely that Jones wins than the child molester.
I am not in AL any more, but very little chance that Doug Jones retains his seat. Runoff is between Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville (former Auburn football coach). They were pretty even in primary and either of them will unseat Jones.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2020 18:52:40 GMT -5
yeah. but against J. Sessions. it is probably more likely that Jones wins than the child molester.
I am not in AL any more, but very little chance that Doug Jones retains his seat. Runoff is between Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville (former Auburn football coach). They were pretty even in primary and either of them will unseat Jones. I'd be surprised if Jones even made it close.
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 7, 2020 18:56:15 GMT -5
I wonder if trump will endorse and campaign for Sessions.
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 7, 2020 18:56:23 GMT -5
Poor Jones. I feel kinda bad for the guy. But hey, he had his day in the sun, and he can always move to a more civilized state.
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 7, 2020 19:16:02 GMT -5
Poor Jones. I feel kinda bad for the guy. But hey, he had his day in the sun, and he can always move to a more civilized state. Saw the below on a Snopes article today. The article was about a reply made by Jamin Raskin, a professor of constitutional law from Washington’s American University to Nancy Jacobs, a Maryland Republican state senator during a 2006 debate regarding a constitutional amendment not allowing same-sex marriage in Maryland. The discussion was held in the Maryland Senate chamber. At the end of Raskin's testimony, Republican Senator Nancy Jacobs said: “Mr. Raskin, my Bible says marriage is only between a man and a woman." Raskin replied: “Senator, when you took your oath of office, you placed your hand on the Bible and swore to uphold the Constitution. You did not place your hand on the Constitution and swear to uphold the Bible.” It seems many Republican politicians, especially in the South, need to be reminded what they swore to protect with their hand on the bible.
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Post by deminmaine on Mar 7, 2020 20:42:58 GMT -5
So Tennesseer I just edited my post to, um, be more civil. Tough to be civil at times with some of their uncivil actions though!
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 7, 2020 21:42:06 GMT -5
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 7, 2020 22:13:19 GMT -5
I excelled at sulking, pouting, and name calling when I was about four. Then I grew up.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 11, 2020 11:40:22 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoix on Jun 11, 2020 12:03:53 GMT -5
Jon ossoff won the dem primary in georgia and will run against Perdue.
I think Perdue has the lead but neither ga senate seat is guaranteed to go GOP. Probably depends on how well the GOP can suppress the vote in urban areas, they did a great job in the primary.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 13, 2020 19:05:00 GMT -5
in he four "tossup" Senate races: 1) Maine: Collins has a commanding lead, with or without a 3rd party independent in the race in the ONE poll done to date. 2) Colorado: Hickenlooper has a commanding lead over Gardner. 3) NC: Smith has a comfortable lead over Tillis. 4) AZ: Kelley has been slowly expanding his very narrow lead over McSalley. this is the race with the MOST polling data in it- there have been six polls in the last 10 months. in short, the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate are likely to fall to Maine, and they are not looking very good there. but there is only one poll, and it is getting quite old at this juncture. it's interesting how much the landscape has changed since Jan. Colorado and AZ are not tossups anymore. they are now either leaning or safe Democrat. Maine and Iowa (not on this list) indicate a steady downturn for the incumbent. however, the primary has not yet been held in Maine, and that will strongly impact the chances of who wins. the establishment candidate has nearly a 10 point lead, but her main opponent is closely tied.
the NC race appears to me to be a true tossup, as well as MT, and possibly ME, as mentioned.
those three races would pad the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate. in a landslide year, they might end up with as many as 53. worst case scenario for Democrats?, Republicans hang on by a seat.
edit: based on today's polling, I would put the Democratic takeover at 7:5
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