Market Returns, S&P500?

[schildi]

According to this article, the S&P500 went from $101.44 to $2,984 in exactly 51 years:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day at 917.95 and the S&P 500 traded at 101.44. Today, the Dow is trading at 27,219 and the S&P 500 is trading at 2,984.

That's doubling a little less than 5 times in 51 years, or every 10 years, so the return over that period would be ~7% according to the rule of 72, right? Do we get to 11% or 12% if we add in dividends?

[hoops902]

Annualized return over that period, with dividends reinvested, is just a HAIR over 10%.

[schildi]

Jul 18, 2019 11:36:16 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Annualized return over that period, with dividends reinvested, is just a HAIR over 10%.

Interesting. That means that the dividends push it from 7% to 10%, huge difference. I would not have expected that.

From your source, what annualized return is given without dividend reinvestment?

[hoops902]

Jul 18, 2019 12:10:43 GMT -5 schildi said:

Jul 18, 2019 11:36:16 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Annualized return over that period, with dividends reinvested, is just a HAIR over 10%.

Interesting. That means that the dividends push it from 7% to 10%, huge difference. I would not have expected that.

From your source, what annualized return is given without dividend reinvestment?

6.88%-ish.  Dividend reinvestment does make a huge difference, because it's not just "here's what the dividend paid you" it's "you reinvest the dividend at the prevailing rate of return".  Also just for clarity, I didn't put in specific dates, it was a quick month-end to month-end tool where I just slapped in the last 51 years.  

Also when looking at those specific numbers, keep in mind that encompasses a period of pretty large inflation.  The inflation-adjusted number is down from 10% to 5.8%, when you typically would consider it something closer to 7% when adjusted for inflation (as a very broad general rule, I typically tell new folks they can expect their inflation-adjusted return to be pretty similar to the return without dividend reinvestment, the numbers line up reasonably well over the long term).

[Regis]

S&P 500 Calculations

This has been posted several times by phil5185.  You can put in any two dates you want and get the S&P annualized return both with and without dividends as well as the inflation rate during that time period.

[Deleted]

Here is a similar one in case you don't want to have to type dates and would rather have pull down boxes.

dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/