djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 23, 2019 20:07:39 GMT -5
assumptions:
1) Trump is running unopposed. I am not sure that is a safe assumption. 2) Democratic field is going to quickly break down into 1st tier, 2nd tier and 3rd tier candidates. I think this is a safe assumption. 3) Trump's approval will remain below 50%. I am not sure this is a safe assumption, either.
I am not ready to place odds, yet. I would say that AS OF TODAY, the 2020 race favors Democrats significantly.
The two datapoints I am choosing right now are Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. both show Democrats with a 5-10% advantage. this is quite coincident with the head to head polling for Sanders and Biden. and no, I am not sure they will win, though they are the current first tier.
The second tier is Warren, Harris, and Buttigeig.
I am not sure anyone else really has a shot at the nomination, but I might be wrong. some dark horse could emerge and steal the nomination. but I would remind everyone that Trump was a first tier candidate from the day he declared. I see no reason to suspect that it will be any different for Democrats, though it may. by July 19th 2015, he was up 11%, and he never trailed again, except very briefly, and only in 4 polls, to Ben Carson, in October, and to Ted Cruz in February. Trump's approval ratings are useless. You know they are flawed as to electability.really? how many presidents have been re-elected with less than 50% approval?
take your time responding.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 23, 2019 20:10:21 GMT -5
you know who was the Republican Front Runner 4 years ago?
Rand Paul.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 20:11:02 GMT -5
Trump's approval ratings are useless. You know they are flawed as to electability. really? how many presidents have been re-elected with less than 50% approval?
take your time responding.
And how many of those Presidents actually had correct numbers for that President? They were probably correct numbers. This one has incorrect numbers and will be shown that is true in 2020. Either that, or it means approval raings have become irrelevant.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 20:13:20 GMT -5
you know who was the Republican Front Runner 4 years ago?
Rand Paul.
It was not Jeb Bush at the very beginning? Sorry, I do not remember. Rand Paul was not an incumbant and his following outside of Kentucky was rather small.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 20:18:25 GMT -5
you know who was the Republican Front Runner 4 years ago?
Rand Paul.
FYI, I only posted Biden's name, so posters might actually click on the link listing his standings against his competition. He may be the front runner now, but I think he fades early on in the primaries due to pulling a Hillary, is retired has all the time in the world to campaign, but he is basically missing in action. I am beginning to think it will be Warren. I expected Harris to be stronger.. She seems to be pretty static right now. Booker has been disappointing so far.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 23, 2019 20:18:56 GMT -5
really? how many presidents have been re-elected with less than 50% approval?
take your time responding.
And how many of those Presidents actually had correct numbers for that President? red herring. it is utterly irrelevant whether the numbers were right or not, VB.
the answer is zero, btw.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jun 23, 2019 20:26:11 GMT -5
And how many of those Presidents actually had correct numbers for that President? red herring. it is utterly irrelevant whether the numbers were right or not, VB.
the answer is zero, btw.
It might be a red herring, but it is yourred herring. The numbers are bogus Think about it. Over 50 percent of all voters are registered democrats, so it is hard to be over 50% favorability when they are all 100% Trump hating voters suffering from Trump Derangement syndrome
|
|
oped
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 20, 2018 20:49:12 GMT -5
Posts: 4,676
|
Post by oped on Jun 23, 2019 20:27:00 GMT -5
This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
Yes, the popular vote decided. Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades. Once again you fail to grasp the nuance. Everyone has trumps number. Feed him a few compliments and he’s your true good friend forever... cough cough...
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 23, 2019 21:01:44 GMT -5
red herring. it is utterly irrelevant whether the numbers were right or not, VB.
the answer is zero, btw.
It might be a red herring, but it is yourred herring. The numbers are bogus Think about it. Over 50 percent of all voters are registered democrats, so it is hard to be over 50% favorability when they are all 100% Trump hating voters suffering from Trump Derangement syndrome I barely know where to start with this avalanche of bullshit.
first of all, it is your red herring. it doesn't matter how accurate the polls are. this is simple correlation, VB second, where did you get that 50% of all voters are registered Democrats? that is absolutely false, VB. third, you are picking on the fact that Trump is vilified among Democrats, but what about the fact that he is deified among Republicans?
mark my words: if Trump has less than 50% approval, he is going to lose.
|
|
weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on Jun 23, 2019 22:12:56 GMT -5
Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades. Your statement has NOTHING to do with the popular vote. "Look! Squirrel!!" Kindly elaborate exactly as to how Trudeau sucked up to him. Thanks ever so much. You pulled that out of your ass, and you've got Jacques-shit.
|
|
dondub
Senior Associate
The meek shall indeed inherit the earth but only after the Visigoths are done with it.
Joined: Jan 16, 2014 19:31:06 GMT -5
Posts: 12,110
Location: Seattle
Favorite Drink: Laphroig
|
Post by dondub on Jun 24, 2019 11:11:38 GMT -5
...it looks like the President is holding the Fed's feet to the fire and we're in for a rate cut -- e.g. stimulus.
He was not successful in his idiotic attempt to politicize the Fed. They held the course regardless of his bombastic showboationg and statement he wants to fire the chairman. And I guess you and Trump don't quite understand how the Fed works on rate cuts. If the economy is roaring, as you stated above, there is no need. In fact, if it's as roaring as you stated above the Fed should be considering another tightening so as to not have over stimulation The Fed's job isn't to control the rate of growth-- they've suppressed it with rate increases. They're job is to control inflation. Inflation is zero, so, there's no need for the higher rates. It was starting to hurt the housing market- market has leveled off a bit with lower home mortgage rates. The president's job isn't to politicize the Fed so he can overcrank the economy to aid in his re-election. The fact that you have claimed the FED's job is to control inflation, and that inflation IS controlled, indicates they are doing a great job. They have always been pro-active vs. reactive, which is the best course of action. Trump should keep his tiny fingers off the Fed.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,129
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jun 27, 2019 17:00:06 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
Someone tried to Ladd-Peebles Stadium snowball us again. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rallyCity officials release head count ORLANDO, Fla. - The numbers are in. Orlando officials announced Wednesday afternoon that 19,792 people attended President Donald Trump's rally at the Amway Center on Tuesday, during which he announced that he plans to seek a second term. Leading up to the event, Trump repeatedly tweeted about the hype surrounding the campaign announcement. "We are building large movie screens outside to take care of everybody. Over 100,000 requests. Our Country is doing great, far beyond what the haters & losers thought possible - and it will only get better," Trump tweeted on Monday. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rally
|
|
weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on Jun 27, 2019 17:59:59 GMT -5
This is getting old and a waste of your and my time. Life is too short for this bs and America has decided who should be our President.
Yes, the popular vote decided. Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades. I guess you're never going to answer. How, exactly, did Trudeau "suck up to Trump"? Got anything? Anything at all? Perhaps you think that anyone who isn't throwing out insults like beads off a Mardi Gras float is sucking up? Look at your asshole. On his way to the G20, he insulted all his allies AND the host country. Zero class. None.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,129
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jun 27, 2019 23:23:44 GMT -5
Did you catch your PM sucking up to Trump at the WH the other day? Trump has his number. In spades. I guess you're never going to answer. How, exactly, did Trudeau "suck up to Trump"? Got anything? Anything at all? Perhaps you think that anyone who isn't throwing out insults like beads off a Mardi Gras float is sucking up? Look at your asshole. On his way to the G20, he insulted all his allies AND the host country. Zero class. None. Andy Borowitz G20 Leaders Draw Straws To Decide Who Has To Sit Next To trump
|
|
weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on Jun 27, 2019 23:59:23 GMT -5
I guess you're never going to answer. How, exactly, did Trudeau "suck up to Trump"? Got anything? Anything at all? Perhaps you think that anyone who isn't throwing out insults like beads off a Mardi Gras float is sucking up? Look at your asshole. On his way to the G20, he insulted all his allies AND the host country. Zero class. None. Andy Borowitz G20 Leaders Draw Straws To Decide Who Has To Sit Next To trump Bad enough that NATO leaders were told to dumb it down for Trump. NATO ASKS WORLD LEADERS TO PLAY DUMB SO TRUMP WILL UNDERSTAND THEM www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/05/nato-donald-trump
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,781
|
Post by happyhoix on Jun 28, 2019 13:29:35 GMT -5
Andy Borowitz G20 Leaders Draw Straws To Decide Who Has To Sit Next To trump Bad enough that NATO leaders were told to dumb it down for Trump. NATO ASKS WORLD LEADERS TO PLAY DUMB SO TRUMP WILL UNDERSTAND THEM www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/05/nato-donald-trumpPlay dumb and limit comments to tweet-length.
Attention span of a gnat.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,129
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jun 28, 2019 17:11:52 GMT -5
Play dumb and limit comments to tweet-length.
Attention span of a gnat.
No need to insult gnats.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 17:49:24 GMT -5
ok, there is a significant change here, based on the first "debates".
Biden and Sanders continue to slump, and Warren and Harris are popping:
www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html
this is THE WORST poll for Biden since the very first one was taken. it shows clear trouble for him. on ONE HAND, he is all alone on the first tier. on the OTHER HAND, the second tier now has THREE MEMBERS, and Sanders (who was a first tier candidate) is one of them.
so, what we have now is Biden on top, with a 3 way race for 2nd. but now, it is not just Warren that has momentum. it is Harris.
it looks like it is going to be a 4 way race for a while. which is interesting, right? the lead between the 2nd tier and the rest of the pack has widened, and Biden's lead continues to shrink (though he is still on top). I expect that to continue.......
this CNN poll should scare the crap out of him.
edit: if you dig through the numbers, there are two that stand out. one is that Biden is way ahead with African American voters. the second is that Harris is seen as being far better for "race relations". I doubt that this is sustainable. in other words, I expect Biden's support to continue to erode as this "sinks in" and we will end up with a very close 4 way race that might not be resolved until the first primaries.
edit2: I went back and reviewed my FIRST POST, and noticed that Buttegeig has fallen from 2nd to third tier (4%). his support is roughly half what it was at his peak. I am not sure why that is. he is a pretty good candidate.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 18:13:23 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
Someone tried to Ladd-Peebles Stadium snowball us again. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rallyCity officials release head count ORLANDO, Fla. - The numbers are in. Orlando officials announced Wednesday afternoon that 19,792 people attended President Donald Trump's rally at the Amway Center on Tuesday, during which he announced that he plans to seek a second term. Leading up to the event, Trump repeatedly tweeted about the hype surrounding the campaign announcement. "We are building large movie screens outside to take care of everybody. Over 100,000 requests. Our Country is doing great, far beyond what the haters & losers thought possible - and it will only get better," Trump tweeted on Monday. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rallyresponding on line is meaningless, really. I mean, Russian bots can respond online (and probably did).
bodies in the stadium are what counts, and he did pretty well. it was a 20k stadium and 200 people were standing outside. so, he sold it out, apparently, and that is GREAT for him. really! but it is not 100k. not even close.
oh, and the other nonsense about "thousands" standing outside is just that.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,129
|
Post by Tennesseer on Jul 1, 2019 18:15:29 GMT -5
Someone tried to Ladd-Peebles Stadium snowball us again. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rallyCity officials release head count ORLANDO, Fla. - The numbers are in. Orlando officials announced Wednesday afternoon that 19,792 people attended President Donald Trump's rally at the Amway Center on Tuesday, during which he announced that he plans to seek a second term. Leading up to the event, Trump repeatedly tweeted about the hype surrounding the campaign announcement. "We are building large movie screens outside to take care of everybody. Over 100,000 requests. Our Country is doing great, far beyond what the haters & losers thought possible - and it will only get better," Trump tweeted on Monday. Here's how many people attended President Trump's Orlando rallyresponding on line is meaningless, really. I mean, Russian bots can respond online (and probably did).
bodies in the stadium are what counts, and he did pretty well. it was a 20k stadium and 200 people were standing outside. so, he sold it out, apparently, and that is GREAT for him. really! but it is not 100k. not even close.
oh, and the other nonsense about "thousands" standing outside is just that.
Always nonsense.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 18:15:52 GMT -5
you know who was the Republican Front Runner 4 years ago?
Rand Paul.
It was not Jeb Bush at the very beginning? Sorry, I do not remember. Rand Paul was not an incumbant and his following outside of Kentucky was rather small. neither was Trump. this was a discussion about the Democratic field.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 18:20:31 GMT -5
his re-election campaign kickoff which saw more than 100,000 people stand for 10 plus hours in the rain and heat for a chance to get into a 20,000 seat arena. How many Democrats could do that? Answer: none.
I don't believe there are 100,000 Demos stupid enough to stand in the rain and heat for 10 hours for any pol. Did you at least have a MAGA hat?
just to be clear, there were not 100k Republicans stupid enough, either. only 200. and they really weren't being stupid. most of them were smokers, and the stadium didn't allow smoking.
so, there might have been 20k outside over a period of 10 hours, but that is quite different than the claim. and even if they were there all 10 hours, the claim is off by a factor of 5. it would be nice if his 40% were only 8%, but nobody is claiming that. but that would be the equivalent claim from a "liberal".
of course, nobody is making that claim........
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 19:32:41 GMT -5
flashback! on July 1st, 2015, Jeb Bush lead the field by 4% over FIVE rivals: Walker, Rubio, Carson, Paul, and Huck. I might also mention that Jeb was the presumed front runner for (if memory serves) YEARS leading up to this primary. I would guess than Biden was, too. this is just to remind everyone how it went last time for the presumed front runner in a very large field the last time we had one. not saying how it will go this time. only mentioning how it went last time. it's easy to forget.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jul 1, 2019 21:49:22 GMT -5
February is a long time away.(isn't that the first primary?)
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 1, 2019 21:57:17 GMT -5
February is a long time away.(isn't that the first primary?) indeed it is.
part of the reason I posted the GOP field 4 years ago is so that people could notice something important about it:
Trump was not in the top 6.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jul 1, 2019 22:14:03 GMT -5
February is a long time away.(isn't that the first primary?) indeed it is.
part of the reason I posted the GOP field 4 years ago is so that people could notice something important about it:
Trump was not in the top 6.
Man, I hope we don't end up with MariAnne William's or whatever her name is. She seems pretty nutty.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jul 2, 2019 14:41:07 GMT -5
ok, there is a significant change here, based on the first "debates".
Biden and Sanders continue to slump, and Warren and Harris are popping:
www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html
this is THE WORST poll for Biden since the very first one was taken. it shows clear trouble for him. on ONE HAND, he is all alone on the first tier. on the OTHER HAND, the second tier now has THREE MEMBERS, and Sanders (who was a first tier candidate) is one of them.
so, what we have now is Biden on top, with a 3 way race for 2nd. but now, it is not just Warren that has momentum. it is Harris.
it looks like it is going to be a 4 way race for a while. which is interesting, right? the lead between the 2nd tier and the rest of the pack has widened, and Biden's lead continues to shrink (though he is still on top). I expect that to continue.......
this CNN poll should scare the crap out of him.
edit: if you dig through the numbers, there are two that stand out. one is that Biden is way ahead with African American voters. the second is that Harris is seen as being far better for "race relations". I doubt that this is sustainable. in other words, I expect Biden's support to continue to erode as this "sinks in" and we will end up with a very close 4 way race that might not be resolved until the first primaries.
edit2: I went back and reviewed my FIRST POST, and noticed that Buttegeig has fallen from 2nd to third tier (4%). his support is roughly half what it was at his peak. I am not sure why that is. he is a pretty good candidate. Do you think CNN'S POLL might be an outlier? Two other polls shows a much smaller drop in Biden's polling numbers.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,327
|
Post by thyme4change on Jul 2, 2019 14:48:05 GMT -5
CNN has lost my respect. I put them in the same category as Fox. It is just profits with a little propaganda thrown in. They want Trump to win again because they had huge gains in viewers in 2017. They have to adjust their formula, as they seem to be losing people. I am going to take all their election news with a grain of salt.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Jul 2, 2019 14:55:41 GMT -5
CNN has lost my respect. I put them in the same category as Fox. It is just profits with a little propaganda thrown in. They want Trump to win again because they had huge gains in viewers in 2017. They have to adjust their formula, as they seem to be losing people. I am going to take all their election news with a grain of salt. MSNBC wants trump to win too. Joe on MSNBC was bananas the other morning ranting how the democrats wanted to lose after the debates were on. He may have to claim to be republican again........
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 74,875
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2019 15:24:07 GMT -5
every rational corporate businessperson probably wants him to win.
and then there are the 40% that seem to think that businesspeople are gods.
that means this election will be close, because the rest loathe him.
|
|