djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 9, 2019 14:27:47 GMT -5
As I have hinted before- Joe/ Pete. We could do a lot worse, and I think they give a great shot at it.. Then in four years Joe could saunter off and Pete could take over the big chair. I had a friend on these boards, who you may remember: FrontlineCatch22. he was a huge Biden fan.
I never have liked him that much. I think he is a terrific guy, but he has this way of speaking extemporaneously that is quite gaffe prone. I suspected that he could never become president because of it.
but now we have a guy who gaffes constantly and doesn't seem to give a fuck. so, I guess I am over it.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Dec 9, 2019 14:30:09 GMT -5
As I have hinted before- Joe/ Pete. We could do a lot worse, and I think they give a great shot at it.. Then in four years Joe could saunter off and Pete could take over the big chair. I could be at peace with that if it comes to this. I'd like to see a woman president though before I leave this earth.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Dec 9, 2019 16:19:47 GMT -5
I could be at peace with that if it comes to this. I'd like to see a woman president though before I leave this earth. I would much rather see a woman president, for several reasons- we are past due, bringing forth equality, and frankly I think we will be governed better with more female representation. Let's just say that on average women's ego's are a tad bit more controlled, imo. I just don't see it as the best shot this time. I have tried to get behind Warren, but she is a bit left for me, and something about her persona I am afraid puts her at odds with more of our electorate I think. Not at all fair, but neither was the Hillary thing. I don't think Klobushar or Harris have a chance, and there we are. Biden has his weaknesses to be sure, and so does everyone. IMO his age is Biden's biggest weakness. I've wondered if she would shift some if Bernie got out of the race (for the love of God, please go away). A lot of Bernie supporters chose to sit out the election rather than vote for Hillary or Trump. I'm sure Warren and pretty much all the candidates are aware of that.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 9, 2019 16:30:52 GMT -5
And...the presidential election is a year away yet...LOTS of things can happen...DT could drop dead or turn over one of those golf carts and be forever paralyzed. Others running for office could drop out or have major medical issues....too much time for any hard projections yet. Please remind this to all the Trump haters who post all kinds of polls showing Trump will lose in the fall election next year. Just to get this straight..Your saying / suggesting, that all polls that show the Donald losing presidential election 2020...the questions that make up those polls, are crafted to show the Donald in a negative light...basically in the vernacular, those polls are cooked to favor the Democrats...correct?
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 9, 2019 16:44:34 GMT -5
As I have hinted before- Joe/ Pete. We could do a lot worse, and I think they give a great shot at it.. Then in four years Joe could saunter off and Pete could take over the big chair. I had a friend on these boards, who you may remember: FrontlineCatch22. he was a huge Biden fan.
I never have liked him that much. I think he is a terrific guy, but he has this way of speaking extemporaneously that is quite gaffe prone. I suspected that he could never become president because of it.
but now we have a guy who gaffes constantly and doesn't seem to give a fuck. so, I guess I am over it.
Actually I never gave that much of a damn how someone does in debates with rivals or if their public speaking isn't up to someone's idea of acceptability,,,there are just so many Obamas and J. Kennedys in a generation {To the younger ones here, do a you tube and listen to some of his speeches...they rival, even surpass Obamas...his Berlin speech.."I am a Berliner" done in German....His asking Americans "not to ask....." his "will go to the Moon …"..classics. Actually Biden's talks aren't bad...never liked Carters talks...yet still voted for him...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 9, 2019 19:03:51 GMT -5
I could be at peace with that if it comes to this. I'd like to see a woman president though before I leave this earth. I would much rather see a woman president, for several reasons- we are past due, bringing forth equality, and frankly I think we will be governed better with more female representation. Let's just say that on average women's ego's are a tad bit more controlled, imo. I just don't see it as the best shot this time. I have tried to get behind Warren, but she is a bit left for me, and something about her persona I am afraid puts her at odds with more of our electorate I think. Not at all fair, but neither was the Hillary thing. I don't think Klobushar or Harris have a chance, and there we are. Biden has his weaknesses to be sure, and so does everyone. IMO his age is Biden's biggest weakness. is he older than Trump?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 9, 2019 19:10:21 GMT -5
I would much rather see a woman president, for several reasons- we are past due, bringing forth equality, and frankly I think we will be governed better with more female representation. Let's just say that on average women's ego's are a tad bit more controlled, imo. I just don't see it as the best shot this time. I have tried to get behind Warren, but she is a bit left for me, and something about her persona I am afraid puts her at odds with more of our electorate I think. Not at all fair, but neither was the Hillary thing. I don't think Klobushar or Harris have a chance, and there we are. Biden has his weaknesses to be sure, and so does everyone. IMO his age is Biden's biggest weakness. is he older than Trump? Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter if younger people simply stay home and not vote for either. 2020 is going to be hyper-dependent on turnout, IM(not so)HO.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Dec 9, 2019 19:18:49 GMT -5
If all those 'woke' snowflakes want to stay home this time then I hope they just shut up with all their overwrought PC bullshit....Dubette's included!
Although the two daughters always vote.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Dec 11, 2019 14:15:11 GMT -5
Trump's team released a video of him as Thanos, the villain who commits genocide in the 'Avengers' movies, and people are puzzledOne of the Trump team's Twitter accounts — called Trump War Room — posted a video that superimposes the president's face onto the Marvel supervillain Thanos from the "Avengers" movie franchise. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump's team released a video depicting the president as that bad guy: Thanos. In the video, shared on the Trump War Room Twitter account, which is managed by the Team Trump 2020 campaign, Trump's face is superimposed onto Thanos' body. The hybrid character snaps his fingers to make House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler, and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff disappear from existence. link to videoComplete article here: Trump's team released a video of him as Thanos, the villain who commits genocide in the 'Avengers' movies, and people are puzzledIn the 2019 Avengers: Endgame movie, Thanos is destroyed along with his army.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 11:41:12 GMT -5
so, the polling has really settled down in the last 2 weeks.
Biden continues to lead by about 10%
Sanders has moved into second again- a position where he has found himself most of this cycle.
Warren is holding steady in 3rd at 15% polling.
Buttigeig is in 4th at around 9%.
nobody else is really contending.
this has been the state of things for quite a while. I expect it to continue, barring anything unforeseen and extreme (low probability).
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Dec 30, 2019 13:10:19 GMT -5
Klobuchar could surprise in Iowa. But would that really change anything? Nope. Not in my opinion.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 30, 2019 16:22:17 GMT -5
Klobuchar could surprise in Iowa. But would that really change anything? i have come to think of Iowa as meaningless.
I think CA is actually the big contest this year.
which is weird.
CA almost never matters.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 30, 2019 16:58:27 GMT -5
And...the presidential election is a year away yet...LOTS of things can happen...DT could drop dead or turn over one of those golf carts and be forever paralyzed. Others running for office could drop out or have major medical issues....too much time for any hard projections yet. Please remind this to all the Trump haters who post all kinds of polls showing Trump will lose in the fall election next year. Are u suggesting those who post the results of polls are making them up or that contributors here should not post such results? Actually I believe I have posted poll results that were favorable to the Donald...not happy about it but facts are what they are . Yes u can count me as one who despises the Donald...just about everything he stands for...to me the man was a coward and yellow as a young man..bone spurs , my lord...if he served , would probably never had gotten out of New Jersey..housing officer at Ft Dix..basically a spoiled brutish individual. I agree..unseating a sitting POTUS is not a easy task...what with all the trappings of the Presidency...Air Force one...The beast...the Marines standing at attention... I believe one of the positives against the Donald...himself...every time he tweets and opens his mouth...it may galvanize his loyal base but that is a given...it's those others who are on the side lines...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 8, 2020 21:31:28 GMT -5
Trump's polling numbers survived impeachment, but his Iran/Iraq bombing doesn't appear to be doing him much good. the latest daily tracking poll at YouGov has him at 39%, which is at the bottom of his polling range. in addition, he is at the lowest approval number of any president since the survey began in 1945.
additional issues arise from the Generic polling number. the GOP has been stuck at 41% (approximately the same as Trump's approval number) since OCTOBER. in the mean time, Democrats have seen a 2% bounce, half of which has come SINCE impeachment. there is still 12% undecided in this survey. in the last election, recall, it split 2:1 for TRUMP, which is not enough to cover the gap, currently.
the head to head matchup polls have swayed toward Trump, with front runners swinging from an irrational double digit lead in most surveys to a more reasonable 5% lead. NOTE: no surveys have been done on HTH matchups since mid-December, for some reason, so I doubt those figures are very meaningful at this point (though, arguably, they are not very meaningful in the first place).
Stossel betting odds has Trump at 50/50 to win the presidency. these are his best odds to date. Warren's odds of winning the primary are in the toilet, after she briefly topped 50% in the first half of October. the two up and comers in the primary are Biden and Sanders, in that order. both are showing their best odds of winning of the campaign, thusfar, but are far from "shoo in" as far as gamblers are concerned.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jan 9, 2020 9:11:09 GMT -5
It seems after every dumb thing he does, there is a dip, and then his people rally. I'm not counting on any poll losses from this decision to stick any more than all the others. He always seems to end up around the same place.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2020 15:08:29 GMT -5
Trump's numbers are at a 3 year high, but still probably not high enough for him to win.
Sanders and Biden are stably polling ahead of him, but in single digits (like Clinton).
I suspect that both those candidates would do better than Clinton in key states, but who knows?
the primaries will sort this out, and I suspect that the winner will gain strength, but again, who knows?
it is also possible that we will have a recession sometime this year, which would change things quite a bit.
in any case, Biden is not looking like the most likely winner today. I will post on the primary-go-round thread about this subject.....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2020 0:23:13 GMT -5
Biden's stock continues to plummet, and Buttigeig is a genuine contender.
Sanders did about as well as expected, but Buttegeig took from Biden and Warren.
Klobuschar also had a good race, just as in Iowa. I thought she was done for a month ago.
Biden is not totally out of it, but he will have to do much better in Nevada and win SC to have a shot.
Yang is out.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 12, 2020 9:11:22 GMT -5
Michael Bennet dropped out too.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2020 11:02:03 GMT -5
how many are we left with? 8?
NOTE: the odds of a brokered election are up to 30%, just below the odds of Sanders winning.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Feb 12, 2020 19:14:27 GMT -5
Michael Bennet dropped out too. Who? LOL.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Feb 12, 2020 21:51:36 GMT -5
Well got my absentee primary ballot today...filled out, ready for mailing tomorrow Only problem, by time of primary, Florida, I wonder if my choice will still be in the race...
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 12, 2020 22:36:23 GMT -5
Well got my absentee primary ballot today...filled out, ready for mailing tomorrow Only problem, by time of primary, Florida, I wonder if my choice will still be in the race... Perhaps it would have been prudent to wait.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Feb 13, 2020 1:47:24 GMT -5
Well got my absentee primary ballot today...filled out, ready for mailing tomorrow Only problem, by time of primary, Florida, I wonder if my choice will still be in the race... Perhaps it would have been prudent to wait. I was thinking the same thing and seriously considered that...at least through the SC and Utah primary..and in hind site should have...Oh well, to late... .....
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 13, 2020 9:17:05 GMT -5
Deval Patrick dropped out too, according to a headline at Politico.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Feb 18, 2020 11:50:29 GMT -5
Deval Patrick dropped out too, according to a headline at Politico. Who? 😋 There were a lot of people that I have never heard of. I thought I was pretty informed, but I guess not as informed as I could have been. Not that it matters. I wont get a say in who our nominee is, and I will happily or unhappily vote for them, because not one of them is as gross as Trump.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2020 13:05:19 GMT -5
s*&t is getting real for Biden.
Sanders now leads by double digits in Nevada, and four competitors are clustered together in the teens. He might very well SWEEP Nevada, and if he does, he is setting Biden up for getting beat in SC, where he still leads narrowly, according to the polls.
4 days to go. this was supposed to be the interesting one. now, the only interesting part of it is who comes in 2nd?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Feb 18, 2020 15:05:42 GMT -5
Biden seems to be hanging his hat on the African American population.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2020 17:04:35 GMT -5
Biden seems to be hanging his hat on the African American population. then he is hanging his hat on losing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2020 15:48:33 GMT -5
there have not been any head-to-head NATIONAL polls in the last week, but we have a couple of state polls.
Biden and Sanders lead Trump by 10% in Maine. Trump lost by 3% in Maine in 2016, but won the second congressional district. there is reason to think this poll might be accurate. the Generic ballot was basically a tossup in 2016, and now Democrats lead by 7%. this number has jumped a lot recently, which is ominous for the GOP.
the other state poll of interest is Arizona, where it is basically a dead heat this time. in 2016, Trump won the state fairly easily (3.5%). I would say that Arizona is probably in play this time, and if it is, that is very bad for Trump.
since Biden has a clear path to the nomination, I am going to stop posting on the nomination thread, and post here, until such a time as Biden no longer has a clear path to the nomination.
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buystoys
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Post by buystoys on Mar 7, 2020 19:59:58 GMT -5
Thank goodness Bloomberg is out. For a while, it looked like he really could purchase the nomination.
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