djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 11:47:32 GMT -5
assumptions:
1) Trump is running unopposed. I am not sure that is a safe assumption. 2) Democratic field is going to quickly break down into 1st tier, 2nd tier and 3rd tier candidates. I think this is a safe assumption. 3) Trump's approval will remain below 50%. I am not sure this is a safe assumption, either.
I am not ready to place odds, yet. I would say that AS OF TODAY, the 2020 race favors Democrats significantly.
The two datapoints I am choosing right now are Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. both show Democrats with a 5-10% advantage. this is quite coincident with the head to head polling for Sanders and Biden. and no, I am not sure they will win, though they are the current first tier.
The second tier is Warren, Harris, and Buttigeig.
I am not sure anyone else really has a shot at the nomination, but I might be wrong. some dark horse could emerge and steal the nomination. but I would remind everyone that Trump was a first tier candidate from the day he declared. I see no reason to suspect that it will be any different for Democrats, though it may. by July 19th 2015, he was up 11%, and he never trailed again, except very briefly, and only in 4 polls, to Ben Carson, in October, and to Ted Cruz in February.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 19, 2024 5:22:02 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 15, 2019 11:52:11 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there will be a 3rd party/Independent candidate like Perot in 92/96 that could have implications nationally or one like Buchanan in 00 that could impact a state, and which side it will take more electoral votes away from.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,856
|
Post by happyhoix on May 15, 2019 12:03:17 GMT -5
A 3rd party/Independent GOPer or Libertarian would be a disaster for Trump.
If Biden gets the Dem nomination, a 3rd party progressive candidate would be a problem for him.
Way too many possibilities at this point to even hazard a guess, but I would play to play 'who should be the running mate.' First of all, Trump should Pence, he brings nothing to his ticket, he's more mannequin than man, and no one is buying his piety in the fact of Trump's chronic impiety.
Secondly, I think a Biden Buttigieg ticket would be awesome.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 15, 2019 13:26:43 GMT -5
13 Keys to the white house. 6 false = Democrats
1. Party Mandate: After midterms, incumbent party holds more seats than after previous midterm. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for incumbent party nomination. UNKNOWN, but likely true
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting President. TRUE
4. Third party: There is no significant independent campaign. UNKNOWN, but likely true.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. UNKNOWN (and I make no guess on this one)
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. UNKNOWN
7. Policy Change: The incumbent effects major changes in national policy. TRUE?? I guess I am not sure how to measure this.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE
10. Foreign / Military failure: The incumbent suffers no major failure in foreign or military relations. (imho) FALSE
11. Foreign/ Military success: The incumbent achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs. DEBATABLE
12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Probably TRUE. I guess people find him charismatic. I can't say he is a bona fide national hero, even if some groups believe he is.
13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. UNKNOWN, although I don't think anyone in the works right now is a national hero.
False = 4 True = 3 Unknown / debatable = 6
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Apr 19, 2024 5:22:02 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 15, 2019 14:34:48 GMT -5
A 3rd party/Independent GOPer or Libertarian would be a disaster for Trump.
If Biden gets the Dem nomination, a 3rd party progressive candidate would be a problem for him.
Way too many possibilities at this point to even hazard a guess, but I would play to play 'who should be the running mate.' First of all, Trump should Pence, he brings nothing to his ticket, he's more mannequin than man, and no one is buying his piety in the fact of Trump's chronic impiety.
Secondly, I think a Biden Buttigieg ticket would be awesome. I think the Libertarians were toast after Gary Johnson’s weak showing in 16. There was a huge opening and he couldn’t even grab 5% in a year where both major candidates were reviled. Had Bill Weld been on the top of the Libertarian ticket in 16 I think he would have avoided Johnson’s gaffes and gotten to 5%, in the debates and had the Libertarians funded by the FEC this go round. I think that’s why Bill Weld is primary challenging this time around. I don’t think he has the star power or financial backing to mount any kind of serious primary challenge for Trump however.
|
|
dezii
Distinguished Associate
Joined: May 18, 2017 14:26:36 GMT -5
Posts: 20,671
|
Post by dezii on May 15, 2019 15:21:19 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there will be a 3rd party/Independent candidate like Perot in 92/96 that could have implications nationally or one like Buchanan in 00 that could impact a state, and which side it will take more electoral votes away from. personally I hope not ….I don't believe they, third parties, are affective...but that is me... I know some get frustrated when they don't feel any of major parties candidates don't fit their wants but to expect anyone to be a perfect fit just , to me, is nuts...Not going to happen. For me, a third party vote is a waste unless it is a vote in a area or State that is solidly leaning one way or another...Example is my son...voted for neither Presidential candidate in 2016 but lives in Connecticut and the chance of that State going Red was almost impossible so in my mind, not a wasted vote...
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 16:43:20 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there will be a 3rd party/Independent candidate like Perot in 92/96 that could have implications nationally or one like Buchanan in 00 that could impact a state, and which side it will take more electoral votes away from. there was a good analysis of that year done in the last 5 years or so. you would probably be interested in seeing it.
what it showed is that Perot actually did NOT affect the outcome of that race (despite the GOP claiming that he did for over a decade). the vote was actually evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. in other words, he drew off both candidates EQUALLY.
this is why people should ALWAYS vote third party, if they feel right about it. it is a digital outcome. if your candidate wins, then your third party is no longer a third party. and if he loses, it won't impact the outcome.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,856
|
Post by happyhoix on May 15, 2019 16:45:43 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there will be a 3rd party/Independent candidate like Perot in 92/96 that could have implications nationally or one like Buchanan in 00 that could impact a state, and which side it will take more electoral votes away from. there was a good analysis of that year done in the last 5 years or so. you would probably be interested in seeing it.
what it showed is that Perot actually did NOT affect the outcome of that race (despite the GOP claiming that he did for over a decade). the vote was actually evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. in other words, he drew off both candidates EQUALLY.
this is why people should ALWAYS vote third party, if they feel right about it. it is a digital outcome. if your candidate wins, then your third party is no longer a third party. and if he loses, it won't impact the outcome.
Was that true when Ralph Nader kept running? I thought he always drew votes from the Dems?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 16:50:45 GMT -5
there was a good analysis of that year done in the last 5 years or so. you would probably be interested in seeing it.
what it showed is that Perot actually did NOT affect the outcome of that race (despite the GOP claiming that he did for over a decade). the vote was actually evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. in other words, he drew off both candidates EQUALLY.
this is why people should ALWAYS vote third party, if they feel right about it. it is a digital outcome. if your candidate wins, then your third party is no longer a third party. and if he loses, it won't impact the outcome.
Was that true when Ralph Nader kept running? I thought he always drew votes from the Dems? I ONLY know about the Perot analysis. but I think it would PROBABLY apply to Nader, too.
I think the mainstream parties like to wave this bogeyman around, but I am not sure it is true. NOTE: I always believed what the GOP said about Perot until I saw the analysis. now, I KNOW that it is a total lie. a fabrication. Perot did not cost the GOP that election.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,337
|
Post by Tennesseer on May 15, 2019 17:16:44 GMT -5
DJ_you need to add 'Official' to the thread title so no other threads about the 2020 election are started on the Politics board.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 15, 2019 20:09:44 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there will be a 3rd party/Independent candidate like Perot in 92/96 that could have implications nationally or one like Buchanan in 00 that could impact a state, and which side it will take more electoral votes away from. personally I hope not ….I don't believe they, third parties, are affective...but that is me... I know some get frustrated when they don't feel any of major parties candidates don't fit their wants but to expect anyone to be a perfect fit just , to me, is nuts...Not going to happen. For me, a third party vote is a waste unless it is a vote in a area or State that is solidly leaning one way or another...Example is my son...voted for neither Presidential candidate in 2016 but lives in Connecticut and the chance of that State going Red was almost impossible so in my mind, not a wasted vote... I have a different theory. If you are not in a swing state, your vote for President is likely uselss anyway. And that is true if you are in the majority or minority for your state. However, having even a minor showing for a third party sends a message to the main parties that people are unhappy with them. It may make local politicians consider a more nuanced approach to governing.
|
|
seriousthistime
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 22, 2010 20:27:07 GMT -5
Posts: 4,695
|
Post by seriousthistime on May 15, 2019 20:17:28 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House?
You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 20:23:09 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. it's crossed my mind.
it would be fun to lead him out in cuffs.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 15, 2019 20:31:42 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. That would be a fucking nightmare.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 20:33:44 GMT -5
can we talk about something else, please? how about the stability of Biden's polling numbers?
|
|
weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on May 15, 2019 21:43:21 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. it's crossed my mind.
it would be fun to lead him out in cuffs.
I'd rather see him taken out in a body bag, with a tag on his toe.......
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2019 22:34:59 GMT -5
it's crossed my mind.
it would be fun to lead him out in cuffs.
I'd rather see him taken out in a body bag, with a tag on his toe....... only if it is Death By Cheeseburger or Overcooked Steak.
|
|
OldCoyote
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
Posts: 13,449
|
Post by OldCoyote on May 15, 2019 23:48:03 GMT -5
Biden is the only good candidate on the democratic run, But his hugging and being handie,, will be a never ending line of jokes.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2019 6:53:46 GMT -5
Biden is the only good candidate on the democratic run, But his hugging and being handie,, will be a never ending line of jokes.
didn't hurt the winner of the last election. wouldn't count Biden out.
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 16, 2019 7:58:46 GMT -5
Blech - Biden. 😒 Can't we get someone under 100 for a change?
(Don't worry, I will vote blue no matter who)
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 63,337
|
Post by Tennesseer on May 16, 2019 9:51:20 GMT -5
Biden is the only good candidate on the democratic run, But his hugging and being handie,, will be a never ending line of jokes.
didn't hurt the winner of the last election. wouldn't count Biden out.
Biden has yet to sign a woman's chest, regardless of a woman's consent.
|
|
dezii
Distinguished Associate
Joined: May 18, 2017 14:26:36 GMT -5
Posts: 20,671
|
Post by dezii on May 16, 2019 10:43:25 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. I mentioned that possible theory a while ago and others have chimed in and now even main stream professional politicians have chimed in...Pelosi for one of such a possibility...and I don't hear any of the Donalds supporters...here for example..poo pooing such a happening or suggesting such a happening would be wrong...Possible he and advisors feel with the way SCOTUS is set up they might get a favorable ruling on such a happening..
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 17, 2019 10:40:58 GMT -5
I am not worried about it. I think he would accept the defeat- albeit as gracelessly as he does everything else, claiming fraud all the way to Mar a Lago Retirement Acres. JMO of course, and I could well be wrong. And he will bitch about it until he dies.
|
|
swamp
Community Leader
Don't be a fool. Call me!
Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
Posts: 45,306
|
Post by swamp on May 17, 2019 10:45:01 GMT -5
Blech - Biden. 😒 Can't we get someone under 100 for a change? (Don't worry, I will vote blue no matter who) Seriously, enough with the old white men.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,856
|
Post by happyhoix on May 17, 2019 11:59:15 GMT -5
can we talk about something else, please? how about the stability of Biden's polling numbers? How about how Biden is polling double digits ahead of Trump in PA?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2019 12:00:57 GMT -5
can we talk about something else, please? how about the stability of Biden's polling numbers? How about how Biden is polling double digits ahead of Trump in PA?
he is +8 nationally, as well- along with Sanders.
actually, all of the major candidates are leading him, though Sanders and Biden have the largest lead.
|
|
happyhoix
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Oct 7, 2011 7:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 20,856
|
Post by happyhoix on May 17, 2019 12:02:18 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. I've considered that but I think even many of the die hard Trumpettes would draw a line at a tyrant taking over
I would like to see him hauled away riding a rail, similar to what happened to that obnoxious, racist politician in Oh Brother Where Art Thou.
We'll let the WH secret service guys carry the rail
|
|
thyme4change
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 26, 2010 13:54:08 GMT -5
Posts: 40,371
|
Post by thyme4change on May 17, 2019 15:13:05 GMT -5
Have you considered that maybe Trump will lose the popular vote and the electoral vote, declare himself the winner of both because of voter fraud or some such thing, and just not leave the White House? You scoff? Almost half the country would believe him, just because he said it . . . so it must be true. I've considered that but I think even many of the die hard Trumpettes would draw a line at a tyrant taking over
I would like to see him hauled away riding a rail, similar to what happened to that obnoxious, racist politician in Oh Brother Where Art Thou.
We'll let the WH secret service guys carry the rail
I think the die hards would fight for a second term. After that, people will start peeling off.
|
|
dezii
Distinguished Associate
Joined: May 18, 2017 14:26:36 GMT -5
Posts: 20,671
|
Post by dezii on May 18, 2019 10:36:04 GMT -5
Blech - Biden. 😒 Can't we get someone under 100 for a change? (Don't worry, I will vote blue no matter who) Seriously, enough with the old white men. After the drama and soap opera doings of the recent past...old ,even white ,would be fine by me...old ,comfortable ,like a old worn soft robe and slippers...fine by me for my final years...After that u young whipper snappers can experiment with say the Donald Jr [if out of prison naturally] or similar types again....
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,035
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jun 19, 2019 20:38:50 GMT -5
update:
on April 25th, here were the polling averages for the top 5 candiates:
Biden = 29.3 Sanders = 23 Harris = 7.3 Buttegieg = 6.5 Warren = 6.5 All others = 27.4
since that time, Biden went up to 41% before falling back. here are today's numbers:
Biden = 32 Sanders = 15 Warren = 11.9 Harris = 7.1 Buttegeig = 7.0 All others = 27.0
Sanders is no longer a 1st tier candidate, imo. he has given up ground to a combination of Warren and Biden (in that order) with the other two candidates barely moving in the last 2 months.
it is still too early to tell, but Biden is still the clear favourite. what is equally clear is that the only candidate that has any momentum right now is Warren. all of the other candidates are treading water or losing ground. clearly, with 27% of the vote among the other (19) candidates, any one of these four 2nd tier candidates could cut into Biden's lead. time will tell.
edit: I forgot to mention that Warren has lead Sanders in two of the last (6) polls. if I were to guess where we would be in (2) months, I would say that Warren and Sanders will trade places, and that the distance between Warren and Biden will shrink.
|
|