Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2019 11:11:27 GMT -5
Applying atmospheric limits, energy retention at dew point is the biggie, the earth is too far from the sun to get much more than approximately 8/10° celsius over what it is now. The lag time is huge. There is no tipping point. What the AGW proponents likes to omit, is the change in rate of emission on the darkside. Always seeking an outlet, the energy radiates out at an ever higher rate to the near absolute zero, on the dark side, as the temperature climbs, while on the acquisition side of the planet, input remains the same. This has a moderating effect on temperature climb due to changes in atmosphere composition. It's actually the opposite of a tipping point. So the average temp could be up to 15 ish degrees hotter. So Phoenix will have a few weeks of 130-135 degree, and 6 months where hitting 115+ won't be unusual. Getting down into the single digits in Chicago in winter will start to become unusual. It seems like 10-15 degrees will have pretty drastic effects on farming practices. Probably ag and ranching, too. It won't happen that way. If the atmosphere attains the ability in the long run to hold that amount of energy. By long run, I mean climate scales not weather. It will have the effect of general transference, as in hot areas will have heat transferred away to the colder areas nearer to the poles. The fact that the atmosphere can now hold that extra energy by composition, means it can also transfer more energy, another moderating factor, as it seeks an outlet to areas of lower energy within it self. The larger transfer rate to the areas of lower contained energy, which are the places of outward radiation, that increases with energy available to radiate to near zero, off planet Which happens at a higher rate as the temp differential increases, dark side mean temperature IR radiation, to near absolute zero. I use 8 to 10 C as a hedge to the high side by my personal figuring, but it's actually more likely 6 C is the limit. I'm expressing as global average for the temperature, hot areas will not get much hotter, while pole side temperate areas and colder will get warmer. Mid Canada and similar, will likely average 'less arctic'. In the reference below, they use "sustained doubling of CO2" as a parameter. I'm sure you understand the ramifications of time frame, for 'sustained doubling' of man's CO2 emissions. Doubling of what we use right now, would mean a global population approximating 15.5 billion, if all is remaining equal ? For general reference; Quote; Equilibrium climate sensitivity[edit] The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric equivalent CO 2 concentration (ΔT2×). A comprehensive model estimate of equilibrium sensitivity requires a very long model integration; fully equilibrating ocean temperatures requires the integration of thousands of model years, although it is possible to produce an estimate more quickly using the method of Gregory et al. (2004).[10] As estimated by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), "there is high confidence that ECS is extremely unlikely less than 1°C and medium confidence that the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C and very unlikely greater than 6°C".[11] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 23, 2019 11:46:18 GMT -5
Even 6 degrees C, spread around, seems like it would have changes on food production world-wide, and water issues.
Wasn't the little ice age a drop of like 1 or 2 degrees, but killed off entire areas that couldn't support crops and livestock? Widespread famine around Europe, etc. I realize we have a global food chain now, but we should probably be considering what changes could happen that would affect that supply, as food is pretty important, and we need to produce enough food for 7 billion people.
Is there any source out there who is considering how we should deal with this, with the premise that it is natural and inevitable, but will still affect how people live?
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 23, 2019 21:45:25 GMT -5
Even 6 degrees C, spread around, seems like it would have changes on food production world-wide, and water issues. Wasn't the little ice age a drop of like 1 or 2 degrees, but killed off entire areas that couldn't support crops and livestock? Widespread famine around Europe, etc. I realize we have a global food chain now, but we should probably be considering what changes could happen that would affect that supply, as food is pretty important, and we need to produce enough food for 7 billion people. Is there any source out there who is considering how we should deal with this, with the premise that it is natural and inevitable, but will still affect how people live? Mark O’Malley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told The Republic the nature of Monday's storms were difficult to predict,
Not able to give an accurate forecast for tomorrow, But we absolutely know what is happening in 100 years!! REALLY??
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 8:26:28 GMT -5
The solution for Global Warming and rising sea levels?? Give them millions, billions, and trillions of $$$$$!! That will fix it,,,, this year,,,
Until next year, then, they will need more because ,, Global Warming and rising sea levels are even more so after the injection of all that cash!! Guess what is going to happen the year after that?? no need to guess ,,, is there!!! Ever notice how all the Global Warming and rising sea level report always get far more abundant and more dramatic,
every year before the World Leaders decide how much money they need to buy their personal island solve the worlds rising sea levels!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 9:14:59 GMT -5
Current temp at the North pole on the second day of Fall 2019,, -14 degrees... Kinda hard to melt ice at that low temperature!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 24, 2019 9:38:59 GMT -5
Current temp at the North pole on the second day of Fall 2019,, -14 degrees... Kinda hard to melt ice at that low temperature! As the autumn equinox happened yesterday, there is no longer any direct sunlight at the north pole. The sun has now sunk below the horizon and by early October, there will be full darkness for the winter. You really don't know the difference between weather and global warming, do you. It's like you believe if palm trees and lush gardens aren't growing at the geomagnetic North Pole, global warming doesn't exist.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2019 12:17:26 GMT -5
OldCoyote I found your mark ! Great pictures too. Australian media link. Quote; “A COLOSSAL SCARE STORY”
But if there is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change.
Dr Mörner, who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but “a colossal scare story.”
Despite fluctuations down as well as up, “the sea is not rising,” he says. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” If there is any rise this century it will “not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm”.cairnsnews.org/2016/12/30/scary-sea-level-rise-on-sydney-harbour/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2019 12:34:00 GMT -5
Even 6 degrees C, spread around, seems like it would have changes on food production world-wide, and water issues. Wasn't the little ice age a drop of like 1 or 2 degrees, but killed off entire areas that couldn't support crops and livestock? Widespread famine around Europe, etc. I realize we have a global food chain now, but we should probably be considering what changes could happen that would affect that supply, as food is pretty important, and we need to produce enough food for 7 billion people. Is there any source out there who is considering how we should deal with this, with the premise that it is natural and inevitable, but will still affect how people live? Not that I've ever seen. (bolded) Cold is way worse than same increases of warm (1/2 degrees), in regards to survivability, in regards to your little ice age statement. Just my personal opinion on that.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Sept 24, 2019 12:50:32 GMT -5
OldCoyote I found your mark ! Great pictures too. Australian media link. Quote; “A COLOSSAL SCARE STORY”
But if there is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change.
Dr Mörner, who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but “a colossal scare story.”
Despite fluctuations down as well as up, “the sea is not rising,” he says. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” If there is any rise this century it will “not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm”.cairnsnews.org/2016/12/30/scary-sea-level-rise-on-sydney-harbour/ Nils-Axel Mörner is Wrong About Sea Level Rise skepticalscience.com/Nils-Axel-Morner-wrong-about-sea-level-rise.htmlIn short, Mörner's conspiracy theory and accusation of falsified data is complete nonsense. It's also ironic that Mörner accuses others of falsifying data, since he has previously doctored photographs in his own presentations (i.e. see multiple photos of the Maldives 'marker tree' spliced together here and here). Nils-Axel Mörner's claims regarding sea level rise are the very definition of denial, involving nothing more than conspiracy theories and unsubstantiated accusations of data falsification wich are easily proven untrue. The mainstream media needs to realize that Mörner is simply not a credible source of information about sea level rise or climate science in general. One individual's unsupported conspiracy theories do not trump empirical observational data.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 20:53:25 GMT -5
OldCoyote I found your mark ! Great pictures too. Australian media link. Quote; “A COLOSSAL SCARE STORY”
But if there is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change.
Dr Mörner, who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but “a colossal scare story.”
Despite fluctuations down as well as up, “the sea is not rising,” he says. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” If there is any rise this century it will “not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm”.cairnsnews.org/2016/12/30/scary-sea-level-rise-on-sydney-harbour/ Woooo Hooooo, I knew it all along!!!!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 20:57:42 GMT -5
Current temp at the North pole on the second day of Fall 2019,, -14 degrees... Kinda hard to melt ice at that low temperature! As the autumn equinox happened yesterday, there is no longer any direct sunlight at the north pole. The sun has now sunk below the horizon and by early October, there will be full darkness for the winter. You really don't know the difference between weather and global warming, do you. It's like you believe if palm trees and lush gardens aren't growing at the geomagnetic North Pole, global warming doesn't exist. -55 degrees,,, hmmmm, ice does not to well at -55 degrees.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 24, 2019 21:14:36 GMT -5
As the autumn equinox happened yesterday, there is no longer any direct sunlight at the north pole. The sun has now sunk below the horizon and by early October, there will be full darkness for the winter. You really don't know the difference between weather and global warming, do you. It's like you believe if palm trees and lush gardens aren't growing at the geomagnetic North Pole, global warming doesn't exist. -55 degrees,,, hmmmm, ice does not to well at -55 degrees.
So now you have moved from the north pole to the south pole where yesterday was the firdt day of spring. It's still dark 24-7 down there.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 21:23:01 GMT -5
With Global Warming, We don't need sunshine.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 24, 2019 21:25:53 GMT -5
Just a Climate Scientist creative charts and graphs!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2019 21:34:58 GMT -5
the climate is changing in my heart.
it is getting colder.
MAGA!!!!!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 28, 2019 9:40:30 GMT -5
Growing up in Colorado, I remember coming home from a farm auction, when a powerful snowstorm blew in from the North. It was early Sept. I ask my dad is this too early for snow? Dad said no, here , any time after the first of Sept, we can get snow! Funny, Then it was called weather, now it is "Historic Global Warming"
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 28, 2019 9:47:29 GMT -5
Growing up in Colorado, I remember coming home from a farm auction, when a powerful snowstorm blew in from the North. It was early Sept. I ask my dad is this too early for snow? Dad said no, here , any time after the first of Sept, we can get snow! Funny, Then it was called weather, now it is "Historic Global Warming" We should be in the low 80s this time of year. Next seven days, and just like the last 50 or so days, daytime temps will be in the middle to upper 90s and close to 100 by Wednesday. Global warming? Don't know but not discounting it. September will be our hottest September on record going back to the 1890s.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 28, 2019 10:22:24 GMT -5
Growing up in Colorado, I remember coming home from a farm auction, when a powerful snowstorm blew in from the North. It was early Sept. I ask my dad is this too early for snow? Dad said no, here , any time after the first of Sept, we can get snow! Funny, Then it was called weather, now it is "Historic Global Warming" We should be in the low 80s this time of year. Next seven days, and just like the last 50 or so days, daytime temps will be in the middle to upper 90s and close to 100 by Wednesday. Global warming? Don't know but not discounting it. September will be our hottest September on record going back to the 1890s. It is not who win by voting but who counts the VOTE, and counting degrees!!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 28, 2019 10:23:28 GMT -5
We should be in the low 80s this time of year. Next seven days, and just like the last 50 or so days, daytime temps will be in the middle to upper 90s and close to 100 by Wednesday. Global warming? Don't know but not discounting it. September will be our hottest September on record going back to the 1890s. It is not who win by voting but who counts the VOTE, and counting degrees!! Word salad. Seek help.
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kadee79
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S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
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Post by kadee79 on Sept 28, 2019 11:08:28 GMT -5
Same down here Tenn. BUT, since so much ice has melted in the Arctic, it's letting the jet stream do weird/unusual things to many of us. And it's Montana supposed to get a horrible snow storm this weekend? I just looked at my radar....parts of Montana, Wy. Idaho & Wa. are getting some snow & mix & other messes. Meanwhile, down here in the south...dry, dry, dry & HOT!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 28, 2019 13:11:47 GMT -5
Same down here Tenn. BUT, since so much ice has melted in the Arctic, it's letting the jet stream do weird/unusual things to many of us. And it's Montana supposed to get a horrible snow storm this weekend? I just looked at my radar....parts of Montana, Wy. Idaho & Wa. are getting some snow & mix & other messes. Meanwhile, down here in the south...dry, dry, dry & HOT! Ayup!
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 30, 2019 21:15:24 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 30, 2019 21:17:23 GMT -5
You dispute it. Prove it otherwise with scientific facts/proof and not just your opinion.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 30, 2019 21:27:52 GMT -5
Hurricane Lorenzo Churns Up Surf For Thousands of Miles Across the Atlantic; Some Wave Heights Could Top 100 Feet
You are right 100 ft wave could cause some erosion!! That coupled with king tides!!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 30, 2019 21:44:59 GMT -5
Hurricane Lorenzo Churns Up Surf For Thousands of Miles Across the Atlantic; Some Wave Heights Could Top 100 Feet
You are right 100 ft wave could cause some erosion!! That coupled with king tides!!
From your own link: The largest wave heights near its center could top 100 feet.Rip currents and minor coastal erosion could occur more than 2,000 miles away on Florida's Atlantic coast. The center of the hurricane is 2,000 miles from the Florida coast.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 30, 2019 21:47:54 GMT -5
minor detail.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 30, 2019 21:51:36 GMT -5
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 30, 2019 21:55:12 GMT -5
Here is exactly what the headline said. Hurricane Lorenzo Churns Up Surf For Thousands of Miles Across the Atlantic; Some Wave Heights Could Top 100 Feet
That was all I needed, That was all I read,
Did you look at the picture below the headline?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 30, 2019 21:56:59 GMT -5
Here is exactly what the headline said. Hurricane Lorenzo Churns Up Surf For Thousands of Miles Across the Atlantic; Some Wave Heights Could Top 100 Feet
That was all I needed, That was all I read,
Did you look at the picture below the headline?
I read the article. You didn't. Had you read the article, you would not look the fool which you are now.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 30, 2019 22:02:21 GMT -5
First I posted, Really?? that was all them wanted a detailed study, You wanted erosion.. So I found a quick article giving you erosion, you still are not happy,
So do you want me to find one with no erosion??
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